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POSSIBLE WORKAROUNDS PART 2
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For variants such as entry to EFTA/EEA, see Richard Tyndall for further details. For renegotiating every treaty from scratch with everyone, see schizoid personality disorder.0 -
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.
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You look at that Venn diagram and ask "would they really miss us?" Maybe if there was a circle for net contributors...Plato_Says said:Faisal Islam
I do like a Venn Diagram - from the Government paper on different Brexit models: Britain's "special status" https://t.co/XvnsvgysXH
Gather Andorra and Vatican City missing0 -
Or......do what he's said he'd do......as with SINDYREF a lot of Cameron's critics are choosing to ignore what he's said and make random stuff up....nigel4england said:
He's said a lot of things, many of which have not happened.CarlottaVance said:
Cameron has said on the floor of the House of Commons that the morning of a Leave result he would invoke Article 50 and the 2 year clock would start counting downNorfolkTilIDie said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
Most likely is that we start negotiations a year or two before invoking exit procedure, and deal would be done in that time.
On the morning of a Leave result he would do one of two things:
1. Get on the first plane to Brussels to see what they can offer to make sure the peasants vote Remain in a second referendum.
2. Resign.0 -
Well no one really knows, but if it is more than 5% I would be very surprised.SouthamObserver said:
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.0 -
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to vote, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.SouthamObserver said:
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.Sean_F said:
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.SouthamObserver said:
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.0 -
It's 3 million jobs at risk, right?SouthamObserver said:
They can do some horse trading. And they will weight up whether it is worth it. And all that will take time. What percentage of Germany's imports into the UK will be genuinely at risk without a trade deal, for example?MarkHopkins said:SouthamObserver said:
Some EU member states have a relatively strong incentive to do a deal, others don't. No deal can be done until all EU member states are on board with it.MarkHopkins said:
An excellent article for Leave, highlighting the bureaucratic nightmare that is the EU.
In any event, since the EU countries have a strong economic incentive to do a deal, then it is likely interim measures will be put in place, before a deal is finalised.
Both parties will want this happen, even if there is a bit of huffing and puffing for show.
Key ones have the strong incentive and can 'arrange' for the others to fall into line.
(You can't look at gross percentages, because the impact will be concentrated. Absolute numbers are more useful - and don't forget that because they will be marginal production they will have a disproportionate impact on profit)0 -
FFS.Chris_A said:It's hardly surprising that Leave lacks intellectual rigour given it's got the likes of Grayling and Duncan Smith in charge.
It also has Dan Hannan and Michael Gove.
Remain has those intellectual giants Corbyn and McDonnell
Maybe we can cut the childish pointing at names and laughing routine now and get back to the issues.0 -
The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!0 -
Well, I've already written one in the comments...TheScreamingEagles said:
I can't speak for Mike, but I've not received any.SouthamObserver said:Mike/TSE - how many articles submitted by Leave supporters have you so far received and how many have you refused to publish?
If anyone ever wants to submit a piece for consideration on any topic, Vanilla message me, and I'll see what we can do.
I'm fully booked for article writing until at least January 2016, but I'm a bit short thereafter. If you're willing to guarantee anonymity, I'll send you my CV later in the year0 -
So if only 5% of imports stop without a deal, what incentive is there for surplus countries in the EU to do a deal with us, let alone the deficit countries or those with neither?MaxPB said:
Well no one really knows, but if it is more than 5% I would be very surprised.SouthamObserver said:
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.
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Indeed.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!
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what we will actually be doing when free from the EU and organising our own trade deals is making imports from other countries cheaper and more easily available - rolling back EU protectionism0
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It seems fairly obvious that there would be an initial period of reflection.NickPalmer said:An obvious question is what the default position would be while negotiations trundled on. Presumably we would remain members until we'd negotiated our exit? Since that would become increasingly awkward as we half-participated in whatever issues were going on (British PM: "I think that we in Europe should..." 27 others: "It's going to be nothing to do with you, so do shut up"), perhaps initial negotiations would be on an interim status, allowing us to withdraw while retaining some involvement for a two-year period?
It would be nice if someone on either side explored this, but they don't really have an incentive. Leavers want to foster the idea of a swift, clean break; Remainers don't want to look at ways of making withdrawal look workable.
The future of Cameron would need to be decided, and a new PM/lead negotiator would most likely need to be appointed.
The vote would bring the european risks more clearly into focus for each of the european leaders, in line with eurozone debacle precedents where bond auctions failed, or Greek debt repayments were missed.
There is a reasonable chance that the EU27 will find it difficult to agree among themselves, as that seems to be their default reaction to everything.
The EU 27 are not twenty seven like minded countries with equal amounts to win or lose from making or breaking a new deal.
My guess is that the big countries will end up stomping on the little ones and the johnny-came-latelies, because that is where the form points.
The PM would be able to play his/her Article 50 card at the time they deemed most suitable.
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Fair enough. I also treasure freedom of movement. I don't see my freedom of speech at risk by being an EU member state. I do see my freedom of movement being at risk if we pull out.Sean_F said:
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.SouthamObserver said:
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.Sean_F said:
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.SouthamObserver said:
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
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The customer is King and the U.K. Is the EU's biggest customer. I dare say German cars would get cheaper post-liberation.SouthamObserver said:
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.0 -
Or us to do a deal with them. If the EU puts up trade barriers that reduce our exports by more then it gets interesting, but I find that highly unlikely.SouthamObserver said:
So if only 5% of imports stop without a deal, what incentive is there for surplus countries in the EU to do a deal with us, let alone the deficit countries or those with neither?MaxPB said:
Well no one really knows, but if it is more than 5% I would be very surprised.SouthamObserver said:
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.0 -
Do I need to repost the list of broken promises, he has form for talking bollox, from "no increase in VAT" through "10's of thousands" through protecting child tax credit, launch tax free childcare, 3 days of for volunteering, the social care cap, refugee camps in kent ... the list is practically endless.CarlottaVance said:
Or......do what he's said he'd do......as with SINDYREF a lot of Cameron's critics are choosing to ignore what he's said and make random stuff up....nigel4england said:
He's said a lot of things, many of which have not happened.CarlottaVance said:
Cameron has said on the floor of the House of Commons that the morning of a Leave result he would invoke Article 50 and the 2 year clock would start counting downNorfolkTilIDie said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
Most likely is that we start negotiations a year or two before invoking exit procedure, and deal would be done in that time.
On the morning of a Leave result he would do one of two things:
1. Get on the first plane to Brussels to see what they can offer to make sure the peasants vote Remain in a second referendum.
2. Resign.
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Bizarre hypothesis.
We already have the same rules as the Single Market by definition. So it should be a lot quicker for us to sign a new agreement. Plus you may find we are a higher priority than the likes of San Marino.0 -
and they would be in trouble with WTO if they did.MaxPB said:
Or us to do a deal with them. If the EU puts up trade barriers that reduce our exports by more then it gets interesting, but I find that highly unlikely.SouthamObserver said:
So if only 5% of imports stop without a deal, what incentive is there for surplus countries in the EU to do a deal with us, let alone the deficit countries or those with neither?MaxPB said:
Well no one really knows, but if it is more than 5% I would be very surprised.SouthamObserver said:
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.0 -
Indeed - in the meantime whilst the deals were negotiated, trade would carry on as it does now. Any side stupid enough to fire up a tariff would soon lose out as a reciprocal one was slapped on.MonikerDiCanio said:
The customer is King and the U.K. Is the EU's biggest customer. I dare say German cars would get cheaper post-liberation.SouthamObserver said:
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.0 -
The flaw being they are going to get nasty with us??Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!
The club you want us to stay a member of??
This is what is becoming known as the 'Hague fallacy'. The EU is cr8p and nasty. Let's stay in!!0 -
That also fair enough. WRT freedom of movement, my own view is that a foreign country ought to be entitled to impose the same immigration controls on me, as it would on any non-EU national. I'm not a supporter of free migration into this country, and I would certainly never claim any rights in relation to a foreign country that I would deny to their nationals.SouthamObserver said:
Fair enough. I also treasure freedom of movement. I don't see my freedom of speech at risk by being an EU member state. I do see my freedom of movement being at risk if we pull out.Sean_F said:
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.SouthamObserver said:
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.Sean_F said:
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.SouthamObserver said:
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.0 -
We import more from the EU than export - you'd have to be dim or unpatriotic not to see we have a better hand.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!0 -
Seems you're cherr picking there. Michael Gove, Norman Lamont and Nigel Lawson are hardly intellectual lightweights.Chris_A said:It's hardly surprising that Leave lacks intellectual rigour given it's got the likes of Grayling and Duncan Smith in charge.
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Doesn't the UK government get to keep the tariffs as well...that might appeal to one George Osborne.MaxPB said:
Well no one really knows, but if it is more than 5% I would be very surprised.SouthamObserver said:
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.0 -
If the Eurocrats want certainty in their dealings with us, they will rapidly make a deal. Or else, people might see that the Earth doesn't stop spinning without a trade deal and think "what was all the fuss about?" And that would NEVER do in the Eurocrat mentality. I mean, people might query their WORTH! Heavens to Betsy....Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!0 -
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12180466/Leaving-the-EU-wont-actually-change-Britain-much-at-first-anyway.html
"Forty years of integration cannot be undone instantly. Brexit would be a staged process, not an event. Like most newly-independent nations we would retain the body of law and avoid unravelling treaties in order to minimise disruption. "
"We would, however, see a change of mood in our country. Domestic politics would slowly emerge from parochialism and mediocrity as our politicians are made responsible for the serious affairs of governance and prestige is restored to Parliament. "0 -
No we don't. We import 10% of their exports, we export 45% of our exports.TGOHF said:
We import more from the EU than export - you'd have to be dim or unpatriotic not to see we have a better hand.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!0 -
Politicians love being generous with everyone else's taxes, don't they. Has she offered up one of her houses?MarkHopkins said:0 -
Does this mean that there could be a gap of several years before we were able to import those lovely expensive German cars?0
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Yes, given our very high level of EU imports it might be a pretty tasty figure for chancellor Gove (Osborne is definitely going to be a dead man walking if we leave).Charles said:
Doesn't the UK government get to keep the tariffs as well...that might appeal to one George Osborne.MaxPB said:
Well no one really knows, but if it is more than 5% I would be very surprised.SouthamObserver said:
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.0 -
Add in David Owen.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Seems you're cherr picking there. Michael Gove, Norman Lamont and Nigel Lawson are hardly intellectual lightweights.Chris_A said:It's hardly surprising that Leave lacks intellectual rigour given it's got the likes of Grayling and Duncan Smith in charge.
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But in reality, how will it be at risk.SouthamObserver said:
Fair enough. I also treasure freedom of movement. I don't see my freedom of speech at risk by being an EU member state. I do see my freedom of movement being at risk if we pull out.Sean_F said:
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.SouthamObserver said:
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.Sean_F said:
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.SouthamObserver said:
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
You are educated and, I believe, a high earner. So you would be an attractive candidate if you wanted to settle abroad. In addition, we'd pretty quickly get a visa waiver programme in place.0 -
I don't see why percentage share is more important than the absolute value. Especially when you consider there'd be a fair degree of import substitution.Philip_Thompson said:
No we don't. We import 10% of their exports, we export 45% of our exports.TGOHF said:
We import more from the EU than export - you'd have to be dim or unpatriotic not to see we have a better hand.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!0 -
Eh?taffys said:
The flaw being they are going to get nasty with us??Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!
The club you want us to stay a member of??
This is what is becoming known as the 'Hague fallacy'. The EU is cr8p and nasty. Let's stay in!!
Firstly I don't want to stay a member, I'd be delighted if a plausible and better alternative was developed.
Secondly, who said anything about being nasty? We are talking about the length of time it will take to finalise an agreement. I've negotiated with big US companies and sometimes it takes years. No-one is being nasty, that's just what it takes.0 -
What do we do with the 55% of our exports we don't export?Philip_Thompson said:
No we don't. We import 10% of their exports, we export 45% of our exports.TGOHF said:
We import more from the EU than export - you'd have to be dim or unpatriotic not to see we have a better hand.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!0 -
Apparently so.LewisDuckworth said:Does this mean that there could be a gap of several years before we were able to import those lovely expensive German cars?
Frau Merkel is going to put the freedom of movement of Latvians above the freedom to trade goods for Germans according to some.0 -
What loss of freedom do you worry about? Travel for holidays? Passport (without visas most likely). Travel for work? Again, passport probably without visas, but not the end of the world if they are required? Loss of freedom to live full time? To buy property? What benefit is there in say France doing so?SouthamObserver said:
Fair enough. I also treasure freedom of movement. I don't see my freedom of speech at risk by being an EU member state. I do see my freedom of movement being at risk if we pull out.Sean_F said:
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.SouthamObserver said:
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.Sean_F said:
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.SouthamObserver said:
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
I think the whole fear element is massively overdone. Even if say France wanted to be an arse, it doesn't mean it would be Europe wide. Spain has a massive property glut. Does it want to tell UK passport holders to sod off? What possible benefit is there? The Remainers have made no case beyond irrational fear.0 -
So Yvette, how many have you taken into your home so far? I am going to guess, zero...MarkHopkins said:0 -
I note the reference to a "Poisonous atmosphere". Is this similar to the hostility one often sees exhibited from somebody who's been "dumped"? Would Remain enthusiasts, including those who promised a referendum, have a tendency to sulk poisonously if Leave wins?0
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Both Mexico and Canada were left out of the table. I am waiting for Mr Meeks to explain the reasoning for this.runnymede said:Mexico agreement - two years to interim, another couple to full deal
http://www.sice.oas.org/TPD/MEX_EU/MEX_EU_e.ASP
Chile's was only around 4 years as well as I recall
On Korea, the deal came into force provisionally in 2011 so the table is misleading really. Like some of these other agreements there is a phase in period during which tariffs etc. are removed - this is designed to allow adjustments in sensitive sectors. Clearly a UK-EU deal would not require any such period as there are no tariffs now.0 -
Actually the Eurocrats will want a quick deal. Brexit, if it happens, is going to be a massive distraction, as well as economically disruptive.MarqueeMark said:If the Eurocrats want certainty in their dealings with us, they will rapidly make a deal. Or else, people might see that the Earth doesn't stop spinning without a trade deal and think "what was all the fuss about?" And that would NEVER do in the Eurocrat mentality. I mean, people might query their WORTH! Heavens to Betsy....
However, it's not the Eurocrats who get to decide.0 -
0
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So if we vote leave, the chances are we'll actually get a proper renegotiation. My £40 on the Lib Dems under 8.5 seats at next GE wasn't to get jam immediately tommorow. It's looking to the long term as any deal with the EU should be.
One should not rush a negotiation, 10 years seems like a reasonable enough time frame for something so fundamental.0 -
And of course virtually nobody can answer such questions, let alone normal plebians...which will get the answer "Britian's uncertain about what Brexit means for their job / business / career"...TheScreamingEagles said:Interestingly I've just filled in a YouGov poll on what the impact of Brexit would be for me personally, the organisation I work for, and the skills in the UK.
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No apparently the Germans will still be able to export everything they make to us, but we won't be able to export anything to the EU as they are going to build a wall to stop us.LewisDuckworth said:Does this mean that there could be a gap of several years before we were able to import those lovely expensive German cars?
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They are both on his table. I explained the Canada thing below.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Both Mexico and Canada were left out of the table. I am waiting for Mr Meeks to explain the reasoning for this.runnymede said:Mexico agreement - two years to interim, another couple to full deal
http://www.sice.oas.org/TPD/MEX_EU/MEX_EU_e.ASP
Chile's was only around 4 years as well as I recall
On Korea, the deal came into force provisionally in 2011 so the table is misleading really. Like some of these other agreements there is a phase in period during which tariffs etc. are removed - this is designed to allow adjustments in sensitive sectors. Clearly a UK-EU deal would not require any such period as there are no tariffs now.0 -
No you just have to be prepared to be utterly risk averse and prepared to just manage decline. The lack of ambition is pitiful.TGOHF said:
We import more from the EU than export - you'd have to be dim or unpatriotic not to see we have a better hand.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!0 -
Taking lessons off The Donald's approach to world politics?MaxPB said:
No apparently the Germans will still be able to export everything they make to us, but we won't be able to export anything to the EU as they are going to build a wall to stop us.LewisDuckworth said:Does this mean that there could be a gap of several years before we were able to import those lovely expensive German cars?
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I apologise if I'm not taking these EU threads seriously. The reason lies back in 1975, when I was 25, young, idealistic and believed the lies that Political Union was not the aim. We were voting only for a trade agreement. Surely so many senior politicians wouldn't lie to us?
But they did. They told bare-face lies while laughing behind their hands at us mugs. We are now much older and wiser. The oldies are usually risk averse and keen on the status quo, unwilling to see much change. But as the saying goes ...
"Fool me once, shame on you,
Fool me twice, shame on me."
We remember. Why should we believe a word from proven liars? If you want Political Union, that is fine, you can vote for it and know you will get what you want. Otherwise, caveat emptor.
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Sorry but bluster and trying to conflate leaving the EU and Brown's chancellorship is the sort of daft argument that will eventually lead to a REMAIN win. Although I actually started off on the fence I've switched to REMAIN because I really think the BREXIT case is starting to unravel now the spotlight is turned on it. For too long the ant-EU "facts" that UKIP, the Mail, Express made on a daily basis went unchallenged. The next 4 months will be a very different story I suspect.Indigo said:
We had at least 8 years of economic and investment uncertainty under Gordon Brown's chancellorship, seem to have survived it more or less though.OllyT said:
I think that up to 8 years of economic and investment uncertainty is a little more than "administrative inconvenience!"Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
Odd that lefties see leaving the EU as a source of economic uncertainty, but don't see the near flawless ability of Labour chancellors to crash the economy into the rocks in the same light, although the later is almost certainly more severe than the former.
0 -
Dave must still read PB to have nicked TsE's Acropolis Now pun0
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Hmmm. Agree with Alistair on the likelihood of any negotiation taking years. But that's just because the EU is disfunctional, and is a reason to leave not stay.
The logic seems to be "we can't leave because it is too complicated and too difficult". That is also a reason to cut the Knot of Gordian sooner rather than later.
The CFP caused waste of millions of tons of fish - never mind the liquidation of the fishing industries - and was known to be a problem in the 1980s. It has taken a generation to get any movement towards a solution.
It has also taken a generation to move the CAP moved a little in the right - market oriented - direction.
We have the Zombie Parliament Building at Strasbourg for nearly 2 decades years now, and others before it, for the sake of 4 days per month, currently costing iirc about 100m Euro a year.
Our trade with the EU is significantly reduced in importance over a short period of years, despite 13 new countries added since 2000.
Do we really want to spend the next century in this unreformable bureaucratic death grip?
The question surely answers itself - Better Off Out.
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The best bet @ 2-1 is either Zac or Spurs I think.TheScreamingEagles said:Paging Scrapheap and Blackburn
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/705032439211663360
Maybe Zac. Just.
Boris the worst.0 -
I am sure we Leavers would be restrained and not gloat.... well not too much anywayLewisDuckworth said:I note the reference to a "Poisonous atmosphere". Is this similar to the hostility one often sees exhibited from somebody who's been "dumped"? Would Remain enthusiasts, including those who promised a referendum, have a tendency to sulk poisonously if Leave wins?
0 -
http://order-order.com/2016/03/02/cash-for-access-tory-mp-paid-30000-by-lobbyists-client/
Some questions to answer I feel...0 -
I just hope he uses my Ajockalypse Now pun about the SNP.Freggles said:Dave must still read PB to have nicked TsE's Acropolis Now pun
0 -
Interesting theory from Hugo RifkindCD13 said:If you want Political Union, that is fine, you can vote for it and know you will get what you want. Otherwise, caveat emptor.
@hugorifkind: I wonder how much British Euroscepticism springs from our timeless, heroic nostalgia for WW2.
@hugorifkind: As in, most of the EU regards that period as the worst period there ever was. Whereas, in our culture, it's sort of the best.
@hugorifkind: So, no wonder we place less value on an institution designed to prevent it ever happening again.0 -
I went for Spurs.Pulpstar said:
The best bet @ 2-1 is either Zac or Spurs I think.TheScreamingEagles said:Paging Scrapheap and Blackburn
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/705032439211663360
Maybe Zac. Just.
Boris the worst.0 -
I've no idea about Spurs, but I'd agree with you on the order of the other three.Pulpstar said:The best bet @ 2-1 is either Zac or Spurs I think.
Maybe Zac. Just.
Boris the worst.0 -
Percentages are always more important, especially when you're dealing with a blockquote that has nearly nine times our population. If you tell two families they will lose 10% of their income or 45% of their income respectively then who hurts more? The reality is that our 10% of imports from the EU is much smaller individually.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I don't see why percentage share is more important than the absolute value. Especially when you consider there'd be a fair degree of import substitution.Philip_Thompson said:
No we don't. We import 10% of their exports, we export 45% of our exports.TGOHF said:
We import more from the EU than export - you'd have to be dim or unpatriotic not to see we have a better hand.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!
The other way of looking at it is looking nation by nation but remember that all our exports to the EU are involved but only their exports to us are. So let's take Germany, you want to compare German exports to the UK with the UK's exports to the rest of the EU. Rinse and repeat for all nations.
I still think we should Leave and would get a deal swiftly but be realistic here.0 -
It depends on what we export, doesn't it? many agricultural products, widgets etc are generally replaceable, it is the high-cost, high-quality stuff that there will still be a demand for on both sides of the equation.MaxPB said:
No apparently the Germans will still be able to export everything they make to us, but we won't be able to export anything to the EU as they are going to build a wall to stop us.LewisDuckworth said:Does this mean that there could be a gap of several years before we were able to import those lovely expensive German cars?
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Scott_P said:
Interesting theory from Hugo RifkindCD13 said:If you want Political Union, that is fine, you can vote for it and know you will get what you want. Otherwise, caveat emptor.
@hugorifkind: I wonder how much British Euroscepticism springs from our timeless, heroic nostalgia for WW2.
@hugorifkind: As in, most of the EU regards that period as the worst period there ever was. Whereas, in our culture, it's sort of the best.
@hugorifkind: So, no wonder we place less value on an institution designed to prevent it ever happening again.
The way the EU is going right now, it is more likely to cause the next conflict, not stop it.
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There is a good case to back Zac at 5-2 with Corals, but I'm happy enough with my book on the mayoraltyRichard_Nabavi said:
I've no idea about Spurs, but I'd agree with you on the order of the other three.Pulpstar said:The best bet @ 2-1 is either Zac or Spurs I think.
Maybe Zac. Just.
Boris the worst. 0 -
Mr P,
"Interesting theory from Hugo Rifkind."
Did NATO die in vain?0 -
Pish you were another "undecided" in the mold of Meeks and Nabavi.OllyT said:
Sorry but bluster and trying to conflate leaving the EU and Brown's chancellorship is the sort of daft argument that will eventually lead to a REMAIN win. Although I actually started off on the fence I've switched to REMAIN because I really think the BREXIT case is starting to unravel now the spotlight is turned on it. For too long the ant-EU "facts" that UKIP, the Mail, Express made on a daily basis went unchallenged. The next 4 months will be a very different story I suspect.Indigo said:
We had at least 8 years of economic and investment uncertainty under Gordon Brown's chancellorship, seem to have survived it more or less though.OllyT said:
I think that up to 8 years of economic and investment uncertainty is a little more than "administrative inconvenience!"Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
Odd that lefties see leaving the EU as a source of economic uncertainty, but don't see the near flawless ability of Labour chancellors to crash the economy into the rocks in the same light, although the later is almost certainly more severe than the former.
The point in anycase is valid. Most estimates even from Remain are suggesting an economic cost of 1.5-2% of GDP per year, in one year of Brown we lost almost four times that, and yet here we are with a nicely growing economy only a few years later. The doom and gloom is completely overblown and just sounds like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learned_helplessness0 -
And that's flattering them!NorfolkTilIDie said:
Seems you're cherr picking there. Michael Gove, Norman Lamont and Nigel Lawson are hardly intellectual lightweights.Chris_A said:It's hardly surprising that Leave lacks intellectual rigour given it's got the likes of Grayling and Duncan Smith in charge.
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You're probably right, it will be a bit disruptive. It's a risk I'm prepared to take to get sovereignty back. But I understand those who think the other way.Richard_Nabavi said:
Actually the Eurocrats will want a quick deal. Brexit, if it happens, is going to be a massive distraction, as well as economically disruptive.MarqueeMark said:If the Eurocrats want certainty in their dealings with us, they will rapidly make a deal. Or else, people might see that the Earth doesn't stop spinning without a trade deal and think "what was all the fuss about?" And that would NEVER do in the Eurocrat mentality. I mean, people might query their WORTH! Heavens to Betsy....
However, it's not the Eurocrats who get to decide.0 -
I don't see why Freedom of Movement would be significantly threatened.Sean_F said:
That also fair enough. WRT freedom of movement, my own view is that a foreign country ought to be entitled to impose the same immigration controls on me, as it would on any non-EU national. I'm not a supporter of free migration into this country, and I would certainly never claim any rights in relation to a foreign country that I would deny to their nationals.SouthamObserver said:
Fair enough. I also treasure freedom of movement. I don't see my freedom of speech at risk by being an EU member state. I do see my freedom of movement being at risk if we pull out.Sean_F said:
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.SouthamObserver said:
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.Sean_F said:
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.SouthamObserver said:
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
I don't need a Visa now to go to Argentina or Japan. Why on earth would Denmark or Belgium demand one, unless it was EU officialdom being petulant?0 -
Yes and there going to make us pay for the Wall!!MaxPB said:
No apparently the Germans will still be able to export everything they make to us, but we won't be able to export anything to the EU as they are going to build a wall to stop us.LewisDuckworth said:Does this mean that there could be a gap of several years before we were able to import those lovely expensive German cars?
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We organise conferences as part of our business. We are doing a big one in Spain in June. It is to all intents and purposes like organising one in the UK. Go to North America and Asia, as we also do, and it becomes a whole lot more complicated. Likewise, we could set up an office anywhere in the EU tomorrow, try doing the same elsewhere in the world (Hong Kong excepted). That's the freedom I am talking about.MarqueeMark said:
What loss of freedom do you worry about? Travel for holidays? Passport (without visas most likely). Travel for work? Again, passport probably without visas, but not the end of the world if they are required? Loss of freedom to live full time? To buy property? What benefit is there in say France doing so?SouthamObserver said:
Fair enough. I also treasure freedom of movement. I don't see my freedom of speech at risk by being an EU member state. I do see my freedom of movement being at risk if we pull out.Sean_F said:
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.SouthamObserver said:
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.Sean_F said:
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.SouthamObserver said:
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
I think the whole fear element is massively overdone. Even if say France wanted to be an arse, it doesn't mean it would be Europe wide. Spain has a massive property glut. Does it want to tell UK passport holders to sod off? What possible benefit is there? The Remainers have made no case beyond irrational fear.
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So the European Court of Justice has ruled refugees can move to any EU state?? Does that include UK even though we are outside EU immigration policy?? Also, don't this ruin the quota policy as any migrants assigned to Slovakia can move straight back to Germany??0
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They go outside of the EU.Polruan said:
What do we do with the 55% of our exports we don't export?Philip_Thompson said:
No we don't. We import 10% of their exports, we export 45% of our exports.TGOHF said:
We import more from the EU than export - you'd have to be dim or unpatriotic not to see we have a better hand.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!0 -
Breitbart reports Paddy Power is paying out on Trump winning the Repub nomination.0
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Galloway at 55 / 75. Pidgeon at 120 / 490.
Tessa Jowell is probably better than those two at 120 / 490, you've got a tiny actuarial chance on that one.0 -
The answer to your three questions are No, No and No (or maybe, for the last).NorfolkTilIDie said:So the European Court of Justice has ruled refugees can move to any EU state?? Does that include UK even though we are outside EU immigration policy?? Also, don't this ruin the quota policy as any migrants assigned to Slovakia can move straight back to Germany??
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I guess we'll have to start making high-cost, high-quality stuff in the UK again. Won't that be awful.SouthamObserver said:
It depends on what we export, doesn't it? many agricultural products, widgets etc are generally replaceable, it is the high-cost, high-quality stuff that there will still be a demand for on both sides of the equation.MaxPB said:
No apparently the Germans will still be able to export everything they make to us, but we won't be able to export anything to the EU as they are going to build a wall to stop us.LewisDuckworth said:Does this mean that there could be a gap of several years before we were able to import those lovely expensive German cars?
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Yes, so you will vote Remain, because it suits your circumstances, others will vote Leave because it suits theirs. No one is ever going to convince you given what you have said, of the merits of Leave so it all becomes a bit pointless. It would however be foolish to suggest that other people voting to support their view of how things will turn out for their interests is any more or less valid that your view of how it will affect yours.SouthamObserver said:
We organise conferences as part of our business. We are doing a big one in Spain in June. It is to all intents and purposes like organising one in the UK. Go to North America and Asia, as we also do, and it becomes a whole lot more complicated. Likewise, we could set up an office anywhere in the EU tomorrow, try doing the same elsewhere in the world (Hong Kong excepted). That's the freedom I am talking about.0 -
No it absolutely hasn't. It's ruled they can move within the EU state unless there are special circumstances. Eg a refugee with right to remain in Germany can move between Berlin and Frankfurt. Not that they can move to London.NorfolkTilIDie said:So the European Court of Justice has ruled refugees can move to any EU state?? Does that include UK even though we are outside EU immigration policy?? Also, don't this ruin the quota policy as any migrants assigned to Slovakia can move straight back to Germany??
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I see the decision as similar to that which a Scottish voter had to make in 2014. If you think Scotland is better off outside the UK, then go for independence. If you think that Scotland is better off inside the UK, then vote for the Union. But, never base your decision on the fact that the details of any future relationship between an independent Scotland and RUK will take a lot of time and effort to work out.MattW said:Hmmm. Agree with Alistair on the likelihood of any negotiation taking years. But that's just because the EU is disfunctional, and is a reason to leave not stay.
The logic seems to be "we can't leave because it is too complicated and too difficult". That is also a reason to cut the Knot of Gordian sooner rather than later.
The CFP caused waste of millions of tons of fish - never mind the liquidation of the fishing industries - and was known to be a problem in the 1980s. It has taken a generation to get any movement towards a solution.
It has also taken a generation to move the CAP moved a little in the right - market oriented - direction.
We have the Zombie Parliament Building at Strasbourg for nearly 2 decades years now, and others before it, for the sake of 4 days per month, currently costing iirc about 100m Euro a year.
Our trade with the EU is significantly reduced in importance over a short period of years, despite 13 new countries added since 2000.
Do we really want to spend the next century in this unreformable bureaucratic death grip?
The question surely answers itself - Better Off Out.0 -
The UK is among the biggest customers of some EU member states - Germany, Spain and Ireland are, I think, the most dependent. But how much of their trade with us suffers as a result of a Brexit with no deal is a moot point. The more high-end the product, the less will be the problem, I'd have thought.MonikerDiCanio said:
The customer is King and the U.K. Is the EU's biggest customer. I dare say German cars would get cheaper post-liberation.SouthamObserver said:
And how much of that trade stops without a deal? That, surely, is the key issue. Consumers will still want to buy European cars, for example. Why would a British government decide to make them more expensive?MaxPB said:
I'm going to break my rule of not replying to your stupidity, but it's simple, we have a massive deficit with the EU. £85bn including re-exports through EU ports, higher if we strip those out. Our £30bn services surplus is not even close to making up for our gargantuan deficit.flightpath01 said:
How is our absence from a market of 450 million better than the absence of a market of 450 million from us?Patrick said:
It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy.MaxPB said:
Risk of what?TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
As I explained to Richard yesterday, uncertainty isn't always a bad thing. Look at Japan or this country under "no boom and bust" Brown. You just end up drifting as a nation.
You know - if I were a bungee jumper I would not want you measuring the length of the elastic for me.
Put it another way - don't take up parachute packing for a living.
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Right but the family example don't work because its not money going to each other. If the 10% family is getting that income via gifts from 45% family, and vice versa, its not clear which will be worse off.Philip_Thompson said:
Percentages are always more important, especially when you're dealing with a blockquote that has nearly nine times our population. If you tell two families they will lose 10% of their income or 45% of their income respectively then who hurts more? The reality is that our 10% of imports from the EU is much smaller individually.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I don't see why percentage share is more important than the absolute value. Especially when you consider there'd be a fair degree of import substitution.Philip_Thompson said:
No we don't. We import 10% of their exports, we export 45% of our exports.TGOHF said:
We import more from the EU than export - you'd have to be dim or unpatriotic not to see we have a better hand.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!
The other way of looking at it is looking nation by nation but remember that all our exports to the EU are involved but only their exports to us are. So let's take Germany, you want to compare German exports to the UK with the UK's exports to the rest of the EU. Rinse and repeat for all nations.
I still think we should Leave and would get a deal swiftly but be realistic here.0 -
So, what are you saying - that it is down to other European leaders blocking such a trade deals? Why? And if so - why in the name of feck would you want to be chained together with such people?Richard_Nabavi said:
Actually the Eurocrats will want a quick deal. Brexit, if it happens, is going to be a massive distraction, as well as economically disruptive.MarqueeMark said:If the Eurocrats want certainty in their dealings with us, they will rapidly make a deal. Or else, people might see that the Earth doesn't stop spinning without a trade deal and think "what was all the fuss about?" And that would NEVER do in the Eurocrat mentality. I mean, people might query their WORTH! Heavens to Betsy....
However, it's not the Eurocrats who get to decide.0 -
You don't need a visa to live or work in Japan? May want to double check that.MattW said:
I don't see why Freedom of Movement would be significantly threatened.Sean_F said:
That also fair enough. WRT freedom of movement, my own view is that a foreign country ought to be entitled to impose the same immigration controls on me, as it would on any non-EU national. I'm not a supporter of free migration into this country, and I would certainly never claim any rights in relation to a foreign country that I would deny to their nationals.SouthamObserver said:
Fair enough. I also treasure freedom of movement. I don't see my freedom of speech at risk by being an EU member state. I do see my freedom of movement being at risk if we pull out.Sean_F said:
I've given my views, here and elsewhere, as to why I think we should leave on plenty of occasions. Accept or reject them as you like. I really can't tell you what freedoms you should risk. I don't know you, I don't know what matters to you. I don't consider that I am risking any freedom that I consider to be important (freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom to own property, freedom of contract) by voting Leave.SouthamObserver said:
A lawyer's answer :-). You want me to risk - even give up - freedoms I currently enjoy. The emphasis is kind of you to explain why.Sean_F said:
I think you need to decide whether you think that EU membership is, on balance, a positive thing for this country, or a negative thing. If you conclude the former, vote Remain. If you conclude the latter, vote Leave.SouthamObserver said:
So which of the personal and business freedoms I currently enjoy do you think I should be prepared to risk?Sean_F said:
Life is a risk. Deciding to Leave or Remain shouldn't be based upon administrative inconvenience.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece.
Is moving me back to Remain. Brexit is just too much of a risk.
I don't need a Visa now to go to Argentina or Japan. Why on earth would Denmark or Belgium demand one, unless it was EU officialdom being petulant?0 -
It's probably more like 35% of exports, but the point is that the nations with which we have huge trade deficits are also the nations which are best able to set the EU agenda.Philip_Thompson said:
Percentages are always more important, especially when you're dealing with a blockquote that has nearly nine times our population. If you tell two families they will lose 10% of their income or 45% of their income respectively then who hurts more? The reality is that our 10% of imports from the EU is much smaller individually.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I don't see why percentage share is more important than the absolute value. Especially when you consider there'd be a fair degree of import substitution.Philip_Thompson said:
No we don't. We import 10% of their exports, we export 45% of our exports.TGOHF said:
We import more from the EU than export - you'd have to be dim or unpatriotic not to see we have a better hand.Richard_Nabavi said:The Leavers seems to be arguing that trade with the EU will continue unchanged during the transition because they trade so much with us, and that the EU will be under pressure to conclude a deal rapidly because they trade so much with us.
I think I detect a slight flaw in this logic!
The other way of looking at it is looking nation by nation but remember that all our exports to the EU are involved but only their exports to us are. So let's take Germany, you want to compare German exports to the UK with the UK's exports to the rest of the EU. Rinse and repeat for all nations.
I still think we should Leave and would get a deal swiftly but be realistic here.
I think 10 years ago when 60% of our exports went to the EU the idea of leaving would have been untenable, even to me and I'm strongly in favour of Leave. Today our reliance on EU trade is much smaller, the rest of the world is growing at a faster rate, the ability to set our own terms of trade is very attractive to me and we would be able to withstand any hit of losing single market access for a while.0 -
Since there are no borders in Schengen, and since governments are now not allowed to restrict the movement of refugees within their country, what stops those refugees just walking into the next country.Philip_Thompson said:
No it absolutely hasn't. It's ruled they can move within the EU state unless there are special circumstances. Eg a refugee with right to remain in Germany can move between Berlin and Frankfurt. Not that they can move to London.NorfolkTilIDie said:So the European Court of Justice has ruled refugees can move to any EU state?? Does that include UK even though we are outside EU immigration policy?? Also, don't this ruin the quota policy as any migrants assigned to Slovakia can move straight back to Germany??
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This is like the BBC's approach to impartiality. Have 50 leftie opinions and then 1 from the right wing. Oh look someone wrote a pro LEAVE article on political betting 9 effing months ago..........Plato_Says said:Thanks. I hope he's time to update it since it's from May last year.
TheScreamingEagles said:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/Plato_Says said:Perhaps you could link to this from Mr Tyndall
TheScreamingEagles said:
I've written pieces on how and why Leave can/will win.Indigo said:Christ on a bike... RemainPropaganda.com ?
Its not about disputing his "facts", its about relentless thread headers point out the idiocy of one side, and giving the other a complete pass for its equally vapid and tendentious assertions.TheScreamingEagles said:
So which of his facts are you disputing?runnymede said:More propaganda from Mr Meeks
So has David Herdson.
Richard Tyndall wrote an elegant piece too.
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So the EU really is the Hotel California. We can check out any time we like (article 50) but we can never leave.
Let's just think this through for a moment. The EU is developing in a way not necessarily to our advantage. The EZ is going to integrate and our votes and opinions are going to become increasingly irrelevant. It is highly likely the rules of the club will evolve in ways that damage our interests.
To quote another song (Lord, I am turning into TSE) if not now, when? Do we wait for it to get worse or do we go now? If it were done t'were well to be done quickly. (That's enough quotes. Ed)0 -
I see Mr Meeks is continuing to specialize in provocative click bait articles rather than any form of deep analysis.
The trade deals he highlights were negotiated from scratch to create new trading rules and terms. Most of the deals required post-Brexit will be a reformulation of existing rules and terms simply to acknowledge the UK's new status outside the EU.0 -
The fact that we are not in Schengen and that borders are being put up within Schengen.Indigo said:
Since there are no borders in Schengen, and since governments are now not allowed to restrict the movement of refugees within their country, what stops those refugees just walking into the next country.Philip_Thompson said:
No it absolutely hasn't. It's ruled they can move within the EU state unless there are special circumstances. Eg a refugee with right to remain in Germany can move between Berlin and Frankfurt. Not that they can move to London.NorfolkTilIDie said:So the European Court of Justice has ruled refugees can move to any EU state?? Does that include UK even though we are outside EU immigration policy?? Also, don't this ruin the quota policy as any migrants assigned to Slovakia can move straight back to Germany??
Also the fact that if a refugee is given right to remain and work in Germany and a refugee visa etc, then they will not have the right to remain and work in any other country and would be an illegal immigrant as far as any other countries companies are concerned.0 -
Looks like some recounts going on in Texas CDs... May shift a delegate here or there.
So far Cruz has won >50% in just one, as has Rubio. Trump has lots of second places, and hence a delegate in almost every CD.0 -
Were we the only EU country to come out of WW2 with any credit whilst the rest had various forms of shame?Scott_P said:
Interesting theory from Hugo RifkindCD13 said:If you want Political Union, that is fine, you can vote for it and know you will get what you want. Otherwise, caveat emptor.
@hugorifkind: I wonder how much British Euroscepticism springs from our timeless, heroic nostalgia for WW2.
@hugorifkind: As in, most of the EU regards that period as the worst period there ever was. Whereas, in our culture, it's sort of the best.
@hugorifkind: So, no wonder we place less value on an institution designed to prevent it ever happening again.
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And you are siding with Jeremy Hunt, I bet that makes you feel all warm inside.Chris_A said:It's hardly surprising that Leave lacks intellectual rigour given it's got the likes of Grayling and Duncan Smith in charge.
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