politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Data specialist Stephen Dunn gives his assessment of the To
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Off-topic: (from Guido)
In case we need reminding, why Mike has to be careful about what is written on PB:
http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10607285.Sussex_Police_investigate_internet_threat_to_kill_Crawley_UKIP_members/0 -
With the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties,the Messina`s IT campaign is probably just going to drive them all to UKIP0
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You're just jealous that the Conservatives got him. Pathetic, really.SMukesh said:With the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties,the Messina`s IT campaign is probably just going to drive them all to UKIP
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I never liked him anyway...JosiasJessop said:
You're just jealous that the Conservatives got him. Pathetic, really.SMukesh said:With the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties,the Messina`s IT campaign is probably just going to drive them all to UKIP
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I agree with Stephen Dunn that of the two parties,Labour with twice the activist number and a younger activist profile is likely to have benefitted more from Messina but hey,maybe he`ll adapt himself to the new demographyJosiasJessop said:
You're just jealous that the Conservatives got him. Pathetic, really.SMukesh said:With the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties,the Messina`s IT campaign is probably just going to drive them all to UKIP
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Let's show the PC Brigade that we won't be silenced by posting about how we're irked at the "banning" of an old racist cartoon.
Another day on PB, ho hum.0 -
carl said:
Let's show the PC Brigade that we won't be silenced by posting about how we're irked at the "banning" of an old racist cartoon.
Another day on PB, ho hum.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duuOUR0_qHw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TT93r9AcNc0 -
I do love this stuff
" Ladies, if you want to find a man who takes the bins out, don’t choose one who also puts fires out — or, for that matter, one who catches criminals. A study has found that men in more traditionally masculine jobs are significantly less useful around the house — and the reason could be that they know their work makes them more attractive to the opposite sex.
Elizabeth McClintock, from the University of Notre Dame in Indiana, looked at the amount of housework done by both halves of couples and compared it with their occupations. She found that men in jobs where a significant majority of their colleagues were male did almost two hours less housework per week compared with those in more stereotypically female jobs, such as teaching and nursing.
“This could show that men do housework to compensate and make themselves more attractive,” Professor McClintock said. > http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/science/article3841161.ece0 -
As I said below, Messina is an intelligent bloke (as the left were saying when he was on the Obama campaign, and before he 'betrayed' them). He'll want to win.SMukesh said:
I agree with Stephen Dunn that of the two parties,Labour with twice the activist number and a younger activist profile is likely to have benefitted more from Messina but hey,maybe he`ll adapt himself to the new demographyJosiasJessop said:
You're just jealous that the Conservatives got him. Pathetic, really.SMukesh said:With the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties,the Messina`s IT campaign is probably just going to drive them all to UKIP
For the reasons given in the threader, an Obama-style campaign won't transplant to the UK. If he doesn't adapt, it'll be a black mark in his book, and he'll want to avoid that.
We may find that he is working in a very different way than he did for Obama. Time will tell if it works.
But that's no reason for the left to smear someone who they'd be eulogising if he was working for them.0 -
Good thread article.
As we can see when it comes to substantive political issues, as opposed to nonsense twitter politics, the PB Tories have no idea understanding.
A couple of key points
1) As Mark Senior notes the Tories are all but bankrupt. With limited resources I am not sure £1 million pounds is worth it for someone that isn't even coming to the country.
2) He will however have a good grip of sensible data ideas. This is something the Tories just do not have at the moment. So from that prospective he could be a good signing but....
3) They don't even have a database that works or indeed a membership with which to fill it. So what data he is going to expertly work with I have no idea.
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It would be nice to see post you weight Tory numpties like Plato actually try and take on the substance of Labour posts points rather than trying to make points that resemble a 13 year old kid who think that they're cleverer than they are.-2
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Richard, Labour got 8.6 million votes in 2010, of which 1 million was in Scotland. If we'd dropped 7.4% as in England, that would be 250,000 less, which would have reduced our British share by 0.8%. On a UK-wide scale it's not really worth worrying about, but if the current Labour 38ish is less up in Scotland and more up in England, Ed wouldn't especially complain about the impact on seats.Charles said:
I've asked several times in the past, but no one has given a good answer.
Labour under Brown outperformed significantly in Scotland vs England (IIRC they actually gained a seat in Scotland). Cameron did very well in England and pretty well in Wales all things considered.
How much of the Scottish support was because he was 'our goblin' (TGOHF, I think)?
i.e. is a significant part of the Brown2010 flaky?
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Andrea posted a number of pictures here the other day of new Labour candidates, surrounded by activists. The Labour activists did not strike me as younger than "the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties"SMukesh said:
I agree with Stephen Dunn that of the two parties,Labour with twice the activist number and a younger activist profile is likely to have benefitted more from Messina but hey,maybe he`ll adapt himself to the new demographyJosiasJessop said:
You're just jealous that the Conservatives got him. Pathetic, really.SMukesh said:With the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties,the Messina`s IT campaign is probably just going to drive them all to UKIP
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Urgh - horrible nasty Tories employing more campaigners. They clearly have no idea or credentials and armchair amateurs know much better... translation I Wish We'd Employed Them First
Former Conservative party digital strategists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds have returned to the party to lead digital communications ahead of the 2015 general election.
Elder and Edmonds are significant additions to the party comms line-up as it goes about ‘getting on election footing’, according to a Conservative party spokesman.
The pair will jointly lead ‘creative digital output’ with a dedicated digital team around six-strong, reporting to Conservative party co-chairs Andrew Feldman and Grant Shapps.
A Conservative party spokesman added that there would be some element of overlap with the work of Jim Messina, the former Obama campaign manager hired as an advisor by the party at the beginning of August.
Elder and Edmonds previously worked on digital operations for the Tory’s 2010 election campaign with Rishi Saha and Sam Coates.
Both were instrumental in revolutionising the Tories’ online presence, which included the party’s social media efforts, community engagement and David Cameron’s online video diary, Webcameron.
Elder has spent the last two years as head of digital at Blue Rubicon and Edmonds departed CCHQ at the end of 2011 for the advertising arm of Pentagram, the global design consultancy.
Deputy director of comms Tim Collins was also brought in at the end of July as the Tories pull together battle plans ahead of the next general election. http://www.prweek.com/uk/news/1207134/tories-redraw-digital-battle-plans-return-craig-elder-tom-edmonds/
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It would appear the Tories are winning the war to appear competent when it comes to election planning. Competence is voter friendly.0
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I suspect SLAB's strong relative performance in 2010 was partly due to Charles Kennedy no longer being leader of the LDs. The % LD vote in England hardly moved but dropped by about 5% in Scotland. Now all 3 main UK-wide parties have English leaders, I suspect that 5% may be 'flaky' but most likely to move to the SNP.Charles said:
I've asked several times in the past, but no one has given a good answer.carl said:Seems to me Ed Miliband is heading to number 10 unless the Tories can overcome three big problems.
1) the relative solidity of the Labour "Brown 2010+" vote
2) the brand toxicity, and therefore strength of tactical anti-Tory feeling, amongst key groups of voters, most notably 2010 Lib Dems.
3) the rise of UKIP.
This bloke's number crunching could help with 3, but not the other two. Unlike the Democrats, the Tories don't really have a GOTV problem amongst their supporters.
I'm not convinced he'll make much difference, though clearly it can't hurt the Tories to give him a whirl.
Labour under Brown outperformed significantly in Scotland vs England (IIRC they actually gained a seat in Scotland). Cameron did very well in England and pretty well in Wales all things considered.
How much of the Scottish support was because he was 'our goblin' (TGOHF, I think)?
i.e. is a significant part of the Brown2010 flaky?0 -
LOL the party that has no policies bar me too Tory repeats complains about "substantive political issues". You have no policies, you are afraid to set a direction of travel, your leader speaks gibberish - when you have something substantive we can discuss it. None of you has the balls to actually propose something it's just bleating sheep in a field waiting for someone to lead them.IOS said:Good thread article.
As we can see when it comes to substantive political issues, as opposed to nonsense twitter politics, the PB Tories have no idea understanding.
A couple of key points
1) As Mark Senior notes the Tories are all but bankrupt. With limited resources I am not sure £1 million pounds is worth it for someone that isn't even coming to the country.
2) He will however have a good grip of sensible data ideas. This is something the Tories just do not have at the moment. So from that prospective he could be a good signing but....
3) They don't even have a database that works or indeed a membership with which to fill it. So what data he is going to expertly work with I have no idea.0 -
Negative campaigning will only encourage the believers to campaign. What all parties need is a positive message, something the young can believe in.anotherDave said:
Andrea posted a number of pictures here the other day of new Labour candidates, surrounded by activists. The Labour activists did not strike me as younger than "the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties"SMukesh said:
I agree with Stephen Dunn that of the two parties,Labour with twice the activist number and a younger activist profile is likely to have benefitted more from Messina but hey,maybe he`ll adapt himself to the new demographyJosiasJessop said:
You're just jealous that the Conservatives got him. Pathetic, really.SMukesh said:With the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties,the Messina`s IT campaign is probably just going to drive them all to UKIP
All the main parties lack this. The first to develop a coherent, positive message to appeal to the young will attract the young. And they are the future of all the parties.0 -
No messing about or DIY this time. Good. How much money the Tories invest here will be interesting. Labour had bugger all in GE2010 - a couple of mobile billboards [that one when the car crashed into the bus stop] and DIY David Cameron as Gene Hunt.philiph said:It would appear the Tories are winning the war to appear competent when it comes to election planning. Competence is voter friendly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfO4FmvHwi80 -
A part of the Brown vote was his gravitas as financial saviour of the world. That will have added x% to the core Labour vote of 28% - x in 2010.0
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Knows it all, does he. this Jim Messina?
E wouldn't last 10 minutes on ere, is what I think.0 -
New YG out: Lab 40, Con 33, UKIP 13, LD 8.
Bad day for LDs and good for UKIP and Labour, but nothing outside what we'd expect from standard variation based on previous YG polls.0 -
Totally o/t my prediction for the next 3 months growth is 1.1%, I know it sounds mad but the change in the construction industry in the south of England is extraordinary. I also predict big decreases in unemployment and finally some small wage rises. You heard it hear first.0
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PhilipH
If you want to appear competent I can think of a lot better way of spending a million pounds of party money on someone no one outside of Westminster is going to know about.
And for it's worth the Tories are screwed when it comes to planning for an election on the ground. They are so far off they don't have a clue.0 -
I'm flattered that you are muddling me up with Richard.NickPalmer said:
Richard, Labour got 8.6 million votes in 2010, of which 1 million was in Scotland. If we'd dropped 7.4% as in England, that would be 250,000 less, which would have reduced our British share by 0.8%. On a UK-wide scale it's not really worth worrying about, but if the current Labour 38ish is less up in Scotland and more up in England, Ed wouldn't especially complain about the impact on seats.Charles said:
I've asked several times in the past, but no one has given a good answer.
Labour under Brown outperformed significantly in Scotland vs England (IIRC they actually gained a seat in Scotland). Cameron did very well in England and pretty well in Wales all things considered.
How much of the Scottish support was because he was 'our goblin' (TGOHF, I think)?
i.e. is a significant part of the Brown2010 flaky?
Notheless I don't think this would show in the polls particularly. But let's say that Labour lost 250,000 votes in Scotland. Perhaps one of the Nats (I assume they would have the best ready reckoner) could estimate how many seats that would put at risk? I'd assume that the effect would be most pronounced in Fife and the East?0 -
So, no change. Again. Daily polling is truly shite. Once a quarter would be more than enough.Quincel said:New YG out: Lab 40, Con 33, UKIP 13, LD 8.
Bad day for LDs and good for UKIP and Labour, but nothing outside what we'd expect from standard variation based on previous YG polls.0 -
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Plato - Are you really that dense. Try to look at the substance of my argument. And as for those two signings I would hardly call them galatico's.
The Tories last time ran the second worst general election campaign in 20 years by any major party.0 -
Was Labour's the worst, then?IOS said:Plato - Are you really that dense. Try to look at the substance of my argument. And as for those two signings I would hardly call them galatico's.
The Tories last time ran the second worst general election campaign in 20 years by any major party.0 -
uIOS said:PhilipH
If you want to appear competent I can think of a lot better way of spending a million pounds of party money on someone no one outside of Westminster is going to know about.
And for it's worth the Tories are screwed when it comes to planning for an election on the ground. They are so far off they don't have a clue.
So they devise a system to bypass it?
Good that no one knows about your back room staff. Where is the problem?0 -
Not really. As long as Mike co-operated and e.g. handed over an IP address, it would not be a problem for the site.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic: (from Guido)
In case we need reminding, why Mike has to be careful about what is written on PB:
http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10607285.Sussex_Police_investigate_internet_threat_to_kill_Crawley_UKIP_members/
Posters are still responsible for their own actions.0 -
The trick with being abusive, is to be witty and/or original. In your case you just come across as a bit of a tool. Stick to riveting stories of the ground game, it's more your style.IOS said:Plato - Are you really that dense. Try to look at the substance of my argument. And as for those two signings I would hardly call them galatico's.
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The Tories last time ran the second worst general election campaign in 20 years by any major party.0 -
It's still hassle and demeans the image of the site.Next said:
Not really. As long as Mike co-operated and e.g. handed over an IP address, it would not be a problem for the site.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic: (from Guido)
In case we need reminding, why Mike has to be careful about what is written on PB:
http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10607285.Sussex_Police_investigate_internet_threat_to_kill_Crawley_UKIP_members/
Posters are still responsible for their own actions.
Although I probably do that all on my lonesome. ;-)0 -
Philip
I am lost what are you saying. That Messina will mean the Tories don't need a membership? If so I think you have got things the wrong way round.0 -
Depends whether you still have that beard or not...JosiasJessop said:
It's still hassle and demeans the image of the site.
Although I probably do that all on my lonesome. ;-)0 -
Sunil
No William Hague's in 2001 was the worst. The Tories in 2010 was almost a lesson in how not to do things.0 -
If the Tory Campaign in 2010 was lack lustre, why did Labour's Gene Hunt poster not work? Can't recall that being a success for Labour, as it backfired on them.0
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IOS " The tories in 2010 was almost a lesson in how not to do things" So what happened to PM Brown then..assuming he got it all right...he got his butt kicked out of Number 10...0
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Dr_Spyn and other Tories.
Please let me explain this very slowly. What happens in the Westminster village Does_Not_Matter. In fact it is such a bizarre concept to think someone was all lined up to vote for Labour because of say tax credits or protecting NHS waiting times and they suddenly decide against it because of some duff poster.
Now let me say it again. At a general election Westminster tittle tattle Does_Not_Matter.0 -
My guess is that Messina's main value will be to tell Shapps what to buy, who to buy it from, and who to hire to work it.IOS said:Good thread article.
As we can see when it comes to substantive political issues, as opposed to nonsense twitter politics, the PB Tories have no idea understanding.
A couple of key points
1) As Mark Senior notes the Tories are all but bankrupt. With limited resources I am not sure £1 million pounds is worth it for someone that isn't even coming to the country.
2) He will however have a good grip of sensible data ideas. This is something the Tories just do not have at the moment. So from that prospective he could be a good signing but....
3) They don't even have a database that works or indeed a membership with which to fill it. So what data he is going to expertly work with I have no idea.0 -
Given that I never actually read what IOS writes as he's invariably rude about me whether I'm here or not - and therefore never comment on his posts, that he's now being rude about me for something I haven't mentioned is a new high.saddened said:
The trick with being abusive, is to be witty and/or original. In your case you just come across as a bit of a tool. Stick to riveting stories of the ground game, it's more your style.IOS said:Plato - Are you really that dense. Try to look at the substance of my argument. And as for those two signings I would hardly call them galatico's.
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The Tories last time ran the second worst general election campaign in 20 years by any major party.
I think he must have an algorithm for it.0 -
RichardDodd & Saddened
Everyone thought and expected the Tories to get a majority. Read PB from those days. Lots of people Guffawing about this poster this or Brown being here. Fact is Cameron should have won it but screwed up the ground campaign and didn't know how to deal with Clegg.
The Tories haven't won a majority in 21 years and it ain't happening in 2015.
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The Tories lost their majority in 2010 when Cameron stood up just before the election and said`We call it the big society`
Labour managed to convince enough voters what he actually meant was`We are going to cut public services to the bone and expect you to do it yourself`.0 -
IOS..The point is GB got his butt kicked out of Number 10....how brilliant was that..0
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Plato
wow irony overload on that post.0 -
I don't even have to imagine something further from a bubble, I can point you to 30 percent falls in Spain and N Ireland in recent yearsRichardNabavi said:
No, prices were still falling even in nominal terms in much of the country in Q1:Charles said:Outside London, yes. I haveIrelandn't checked but I thought it was a pretty sharp fall initially but then has been fairly flat for the last 2-3 years?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/regions/html/regions.stm
The very latest figures show an increase in 4 out of 10 regions, but mostly in London as you would expect:
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/49529/HPIReport20130723.pdf
Of course, those are the recorded prices at completion, which will lag some of the other indices. Nonetheless, it's still as far as you can get from a 'bubble' as it's possible to imagine, outside London.
The other thing I don't understand is that no one is saying that we are presently in an Osborne bubble, they are predicting that we will be. It will have started by year end and there will be house price inflation of 10 percent plus in calendar year 2014. Saying we aren't in one now is an answer to a point no one is making.
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SMukesh
And Labour got a 1992 seat total when defending 13 years of government rather than opposing them. We did pretty much all we could.
We even made money on our general election campaign. Unlike the bankrupt, member-less Tories.0 -
No_Offence_Alan said:
I suspect SLAB's strong relative performance in 2010 was partly due to Charles Kennedy no longer being leader of the LDs. The % LD vote in England hardly moved but dropped by about 5% in Scotland. Now all 3 main UK-wide parties have English leaders, I suspect that 5% may be 'flaky' but most likely to move to the SNP.Charles said:
I've asked several times in the past, but no one has given a good answer.carl said:Seems to me Ed Miliband is heading to number 10 unless the Tories can overcome three big problems.
1) the relative solidity of the Labour "Brown 2010+" vote
2) the brand toxicity, and therefore strength of tactical anti-Tory feeling, amongst key groups of voters, most notably 2010 Lib Dems.
3) the rise of UKIP.
This bloke's number crunching could help with 3, but not the other two. Unlike the Democrats, the Tories don't really have a GOTV problem amongst their supporters.
I'm not convinced he'll make much difference, though clearly it can't hurt the Tories to give him a whirl.
Labour under Brown outperformed significantly in Scotland vs England (IIRC they actually gained a seat in Scotland). Cameron did very well in England and pretty well in Wales all things considered.
How much of the Scottish support was because he was 'our goblin' (TGOHF, I think)?
i.e. is a significant part of the Brown2010 flaky?
Good analysis. The Kennedy affair was a minor detail in English poilitics. But in Scotland it was a game changer.0 -
Charles (oops, sorry): If the vote actually went down, yes, but for all the proper caution about subsamples, it's very unlikely - I'm not sure we've ever seen a subsample in the last year that showed Labour down in Scotland?Charles said:
I'm flattered that you are muddling me up with Richard.
Notheless I don't think this would show in the polls particularly. But let's say that Labour lost 250,000 votes in Scotland. Perhaps one of the Nats (I assume they would have the best ready reckoner) could estimate how many seats that would put at risk? I'd assume that the effect would be most pronounced in Fife and the East?
Andrea posted a number of pictures here the other day of new Labour candidates, surrounded by activists. The Labour activists did not strike me as younger than "the average Tory activist likely to be in their sixties"anotherDave said:
I don't think there's a lot of doubt that both parties attract few young voters but Labour's members are more typically in their 50s, around 15 years under the Tory average (said to be 68). It's perhaps partly that we have fewer elderly supporters in the first place, relatively speaking - our big bulge in most polls is in the 40-64 group.
By the way, thanks to Stephen for the interesting analysis - a new poster? Personally I don't think that obsessing over organisers and computer systems does either party much good. I remember pre-2010 getting all worked up about Ashcroft's money, which had little discernible net effect, and Tories swearing they had a magic marginal seat system which would work miracles. It all helps but it must be rare to win an election on good organisation alone, and we nerds tend to overestimate the significance.
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Cameron lives in Downing St, you and Gordon live in denial. As much as you can't bear to face it, you lost power. You are the opposition and as much as you drone on about the ground game, there is a very good chance that you'll remain in opposition come 2015.IOS said:RichardDodd & Saddened
Everyone thought and expected the Tories to get a majority. Read PB from those days. Lots of people Guffawing about this poster this or Brown being here. Fact is Cameron should have won it but screwed up the ground campaign and didn't know how to deal with Clegg.
The Tories haven't won a majority in 21 years and it ain't happening in 2015.
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LOLsaddened said:
Cameron lives in Downing St, you and Gordon live in denial.IOS said:RichardDodd & Saddened
Everyone thought and expected the Tories to get a majority. Read PB from those days. Lots of people Guffawing about this poster this or Brown being here. Fact is Cameron should have won it but screwed up the ground campaign and didn't know how to deal with Clegg.
The Tories haven't won a majority in 21 years and it ain't happening in 2015.0 -
1992 Seat total? Major got more than 330 seats, you only managed 258 in 2010!IOS said:SMukesh
And Labour got a 1992 seat total when defending 13 years of government rather than opposing them. We did pretty much all we could.
We even made money on our general election campaign. Unlike the bankrupt, member-less Tories.0 -
IOS has not really cottoned on to this politics game... Winner takes all..0
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It is pretty simple.IOS said:Philip
I am lost what are you saying. That Messina will mean the Tories don't need a membership? If so I think you have got things the wrong way round.
A party knows its weakness. Plan to circumnavigate that weakness.
You however, appear to have a myopic single track that follows a predetermined route, with a closed mind to any alternatives. In your head you have your way or no way. I am just suggesting there are several ways to skin the PB cat. The Tories may be unable to pull it off without foot soldiers, but I wouldn't dismiss the concept out of hand.0 -
O/T It appears that George Galloway has suspended the membership of 2 of the 5 Respect Bradford councillors following criticism of his proposed bid for London Mayor0
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Saddened
Yes. I know we lost power. Cameron only lives in downing street because the Liberal Democrats say so. I don't see what your point is. Your electoral peak is having to run things past Vince Cable?
You also have no members or money. In fact saddened I am willing to be you aren't even a Tory party member.0 -
IOS - remember who launched that duff poster - The Brothers Miliband. Look again at how proud they were of their creation...which blew up in their faces. The trouble is Ed M is now in charge.
Compare it with Labour isn't Working - which did more than reach out to Westminster Village People.
Tis such sport to see the engineer hoist by his own petard.
Then again there is the unguarded live comment, Brown and Mrs Duffy...gaffes help swing some voters but Cameron's presidential style of poster campaigning didn't work too well either.0 -
Phillip
Ok that is a very enough point. I am sure you are recognising then that data must be pretty important if the Tories want to spend £1 million pounds on one person for it.0 -
Dr Spyn
They didn't come up with it for the record. And the days of posters mattering are dead. Any money spent on posters is a waste in my opinion.0 -
Reduced to the echo chamber of like minds already? If you are an example of the much vaunted ground game Labour is in the doo doo, you will be a drag not an aid to the ticket.IOS said:SMukesh
And Labour got a 1992 seat total when defending 13 years of government rather than opposing them. We did pretty much all we could.
We even made money on our general election campaign. Unlike the bankrupt, member-less Tories.
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No, that's not quite right.IOS said:Dr_Spyn and other Tories.
Please let me explain this very slowly. What happens in the Westminster village Does_Not_Matter. In fact it is such a bizarre concept to think someone was all lined up to vote for Labour because of say tax credits or protecting NHS waiting times and they suddenly decide against it because of some duff poster.
Now let me say it again. At a general election Westminster tittle tattle Does_Not_Matter.
Westminster tittle tattle does matter if it gets to voters (through the media filter) and gives them a general vague impression of x is incompetent, y is weak, z is decisive.
Classic examples are Brown's "non-election" and the Tories eternal internal troubles on Europe which Cameron has inevitably also struggled with.0 -
@NickPalmer - "I'm not sure we've ever seen a subsample in the last year that showed Labour down in Scotland?"
Well, that took all of ten seconds. Try the last Populus:
SNP 36 (+16)
Lab 34 (-8)
Con 16 (-1)
LD 8 (-11)
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Online_VI_12-08-2013_BPC.pdf0 -
My prediction for the three months after that is that Conservative supporters will be disproportionately affected by above-inflation rail fare increases.currystar said:Totally o/t my prediction for the next 3 months growth is 1.1%, I know it sounds mad but the change in the construction industry in the south of England is extraordinary. I also predict big decreases in unemployment and finally some small wage rises. You heard it hear first.
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It's because you are a textbook troll, Plato.Plato said:
Given that I never actually read what IOS writes as he's invariably rude about me whether I'm here or not - and therefore never comment on his posts, that he's now being rude about me for something I haven't mentioned is a new high.saddened said:
The trick with being abusive, is to be witty and/or original. In your case you just come across as a bit of a tool. Stick to riveting stories of the ground game, it's more your style.IOS said:Plato - Are you really that dense. Try to look at the substance of my argument. And as for those two signings I would hardly call them galatico's.
Y
The Tories last time ran the second worst general election campaign in 20 years by any major party.
I think he must have an algorithm for it.
I mean that in the nicest possible way. You'd probably better serve the cause of the Tories if you didn't do so much of it, and defended your Party in a more constructive manner.0 -
And still managed to make it into Number 10 to form a coalition government.IOS said:
The Tories last time ran the second worst general election campaign in 20 years by any major party.
Let's face it Chilon, for all your bluster, you'd kill to be in that position now.
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Sure data is important.IOS said:Phillip
Ok that is a very enough point. I am sure you are recognising then that data must be pretty important if the Tories want to spend £1 million pounds on one person for it.
Having a load of obsessive saddos (the typical perception of a party member by a typical voter) delivering it by knocking on doors is a bit outdated.0 -
Are those changes on the previous poll or the GE? If the former.. wow!Stuart_Dickson said:@NickPalmer - "I'm not sure we've ever seen a subsample in the last year that showed Labour down in Scotland?"
Well, that took all of ten seconds. Try the last Populus:
SNP 36 (+16)
Lab 34 (-8)
Con 16 (-1)
LD 8 (-11)
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Online_VI_12-08-2013_BPC.pdf0 -
and ICM's last pollStuart_Dickson said:@NickPalmer - "I'm not sure we've ever seen a subsample in the last year that showed Labour down in Scotland?"
Well, that took all of ten seconds. Try the last Populus:
SNP 36 (+16)
Lab 34 (-8)
Con 16 (-1)
LD 8 (-11)
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Online_VI_12-08-2013_BPC.pdf
Labour 37
SNP 34
LD 16
Con 6
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RobD said:
Are those changes on the previous poll or the GE? If the former.. wow!Stuart_Dickson said:@NickPalmer - "I'm not sure we've ever seen a subsample in the last year that showed Labour down in Scotland?"
Well, that took all of ten seconds. Try the last Populus:
SNP 36 (+16)
Lab 34 (-8)
Con 16 (-1)
LD 8 (-11)
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Online_VI_12-08-2013_BPC.pdf
UK GE 2010, as that is what NP meant by "down".
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Depends what you think they are for.IOS said:And the days of posters mattering are dead. Any money spent on posters is a waste in my opinion.
A poster on a billboard next to a railway station is seen by a few thousand people.
A poster on a billboard next to a railway station being unveiled at the start of a campaign and shown on every news broadcast for 24 hours is seen by millions.
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Thanks, wasn't really paying attention to the comment you were replying too.. more drawn in by numbersStuart_Dickson said:
UK GE 2010, as that is what NP meant by "down".
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Next
It's quite common it's what the Tories said I think. £500,000k a year. I think may have been you who asked for evidence that the Tories IT was notoriously a pile of shite, well here is a thread about that!0 -
Phillip
Oh dear. Door knocking is more important than ever. Just ask Jim Massina!0 -
Dr_SPyn
I don't really care for them and really don't think they will happen this time. I just don't see how you keep Farage out. And even if you some how did he could make a huge song and dance about it.0 -
Photoshop and the Internet killed the political poster in 2010. Within minutes the poster is satirised and turned against the source.GeoffM said:
Depends what you think they are for.IOS said:And the days of posters mattering are dead. Any money spent on posters is a waste in my opinion.
A poster on a billboard next to a railway station is seen by a few thousand people.
A poster on a billboard next to a railway station being unveiled at the start of a campaign and shown on every news broadcast for 24 hours is seen by millions.0 -
Arf !GeoffM said:
Depends what you think they are for.IOS said:And the days of posters mattering are dead. Any money spent on posters is a waste in my opinion.
A poster on a billboard next to a railway station is seen by a few thousand people.
A poster on a billboard next to a railway station being unveiled at the start of a campaign and shown on every news broadcast for 24 hours is seen by millions.
because those 6 posters on the back of vans telling illegals to turn themselves in got no attention.
posters aren't posters, they're PR set pieces.
Currently a Labour one would be a blank space about 45 by 15 ft.0 -
Do you have a link for the £500k (I think you mean not £500,000,000) ?IOS said:Next
It's quite common it's what the Tories said I think. £500,000k a year. I think may have been you who asked for evidence that the Tories IT was notoriously a pile of shite, well here is a thread about that!
And no, it wasn't me asking for evidence about IT.0 -
Hmm, I'm starting to think I mistakenly picked up last night's poll so late I thought it was tonight's. Apologies all if that is the case.Stuart_Dickson said:
So, no change. Again. Daily polling is truly shite. Once a quarter would be more than enough.Quincel said:New YG out: Lab 40, Con 33, UKIP 13, LD 8.
Bad day for LDs and good for UKIP and Labour, but nothing outside what we'd expect from standard variation based on previous YG polls.
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Indeed.MarkSenior said:
and ICM's last pollStuart_Dickson said:@NickPalmer - "I'm not sure we've ever seen a subsample in the last year that showed Labour down in Scotland?"
Well, that took all of ten seconds. Try the last Populus:
SNP 36 (+16)
Lab 34 (-8)
Con 16 (-1)
LD 8 (-11)
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Online_VI_12-08-2013_BPC.pdf
Labour 37
SNP 34
LD 16
Con 6
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Are we in Scottish SubSampleLand again?0
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I think you did!Quincel said:
Hmm, I'm starting to think I mistakenly picked up last night's poll so late I thought it was tonight's. Apologies all if that is the case.Stuart_Dickson said:
So, no change. Again. Daily polling is truly shite. Once a quarter would be more than enough.Quincel said:New YG out: Lab 40, Con 33, UKIP 13, LD 8.
Bad day for LDs and good for UKIP and Labour, but nothing outside what we'd expect from standard variation based on previous YG polls.
But we pretty much know what tonight's will be anyway.
Labour solid in mid/high 30s, Tories bouncing around low 30s, Lib Dems and UKIP being weighted until a number around 10ish looks about right...0 -
Nick Palmer started it.Plato said:Are we in Scottish SubSampleLand again?
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Seriously, you genuinely believe that a sad obsessive with the personality traits you display on here will sway a single vote? If you have even half of the passive aggressiveIOS said:Phillip
Oh dear. Door knocking is more important than ever. Just ask Jim Massina!
Bullshit you display here, you would be doing your cause a favour by staying in bed.
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House Price Inflation under Labour = badtim said:@faisalislam: Today's UK headlines in short:
Train ticket price inflation = bad.
House price inflation = good.
That's certainly the PB Tory view
House Price Inflation under Tories = good
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My beard is currently at 1%, because I'm not doing much hiking atm and it's a warm summer.Charles said:
Depends whether you still have that beard or not...JosiasJessop said:
It's still hassle and demeans the image of the site.
Although I probably do that all on my lonesome. ;-)
But don't worry, I've got lots of other bodily hair to compensate.
(For all the readers, mind bleach is available from all good chemists).0 -
Yep, that we'll known asset, an expired rail ticket. I can see how you would be confused.surbiton said:
House Price Inflation under Labour = badtim said:@faisalislam: Today's UK headlines in short:
Train ticket price inflation = bad.
House price inflation = good.
That's certainly the PB Tory view
House Price Inflation under Tories = good
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I bet I'm way hairier than you! (How's the mind bleach?JosiasJessop said:
My beard is currently at 1%, because I'm not doing much hiking atm and it's a warm summer.Charles said:
Depends whether you still have that beard or not...JosiasJessop said:
It's still hassle and demeans the image of the site.
Although I probably do that all on my lonesome. ;-)
But don't worry, I've got lots of other bodily hair to compensate.
(For all the readers, mind bleach is available from all good chemists).
) 0 -
Saddened
Do I believe I win a single vote on here LOL do I hell. No one no matter how often they post changes a single thing when it comes to how real people think.
No no, my point is rather different. It's the local nurse calling round her neighbours just explaining why the Tories reorganisation is such a disaster that is shifting the votes. And far away from PB in Tory marginal seats that is happening every single night.0 -
Must away posting via kindle is just too much of a bind.0
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Phillip
No. Completely the wrong way round. In cynical Britain it is the local person on the doorstep that get you to vote. These days its even more important. Just ask Jim Messina!0 -
For @Sunil and others - I've been looking back at some archive YouTube after the Tom and Jerry stuff and this from The Goodies is just as funny today. I have some ancient VHS tapes of the series = must dig them out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jr6CyU-Ev_M0 -
Local person? As in "a local election for local people"?IOS said:Phillip
No. Completely the wrong way round. In cynical Britain it is the local person on the doorstep that get you to vote. These days its even more important. Just ask Jim Messina! 0 -
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Not possible, believe me.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I bet I'm way hairier than you! (How's the mind bleach?JosiasJessop said:
My beard is currently at 1%, because I'm not doing much hiking atm and it's a warm summer.Charles said:
Depends whether you still have that beard or not...JosiasJessop said:
It's still hassle and demeans the image of the site.
Although I probably do that all on my lonesome. ;-)
But don't worry, I've got lots of other bodily hair to compensate.
(For all the readers, mind bleach is available from all good chemists).)
Years ago I was lying in bed watching 'an American Werewolf in London'. The lady had never seen it before, and when the lead changed into a werewolf for the first time, she looked at me, looked at the TV, and looked back at me, and said: "Josias, you;'re hairier than the werewolf!"
Women either dig it or they don't. You get either a 'yummm' or a 'yuck'.0
