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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Data specialist Stephen Dunn gives his assessment of the Tory party hire of Jim Messina
Jim Messina, who was chief campaign manager for Barak Obama’s 2012 election campaign, has recently been recruited to assist the Tories with their 2015 campaign. This has attracted lots of attention and comment.
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Is easier to be successful with a good set of policies/policy successes
Obviously a waste of money for the Tories because [insert your partisan opinion here]
If you were a Labour voter - WHAT A COUP!!!
The One Barnet decision is a threat to local democracy
http://www.theguardian.com/local-government-network/2013/aug/13/one-barnet-decision-threat-to-local-democracy
Unlike his brother, Labour's leader has the same courage and steeliness as Margaret Thatcher, writes Tom Harris.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10239982/Ed-Miliband-is-a-b-and-thats-a-good-thing.html
We don't have presidential elections.
It is not a case of getting each voter countrywide to vote for one man or woman: it is a case of getting them to vote for a candidate in their constituency. And those candidates will have very different views, advantages and disadvantages.
However, Mr Messina is obviously a fairly clued-up bloke, and I daresay he and the Conservative Party will have been through all this before he was hired.
In other words: don't assume that Messina won't alter his methodology to cope with our different system. If he doesn't, he'll be ineffective for the reasons given in the threader. And he'll know that.
Madness
"There was outrage in labour circles as a government policy reportedly 'succeeded in its aims'
George Osborne's plan aims to flagrantly boost the UKs moribund property market 'is clearly working' said labour spokesman Andy Bryant.
'We really cannot have government policy working so effectively like this. George Osborne is nakedly succeeding in what he set out to do".
Where are the unintended outcomes? where is the suppression of the truth???"
''How dare the evil tories attempt to take vulnerable people in these areas out of negative equity'' raged labour spokesman Chris Burnham.
http://gmellor182.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/4290112148_7365c444e6.jpg?w=150&h=144
http://www.usborne.com/images/covers/eng/max_covers/2229.jpg
Robin Brant @robindbrant
on labour summer 'woes' former labour mp chris mullin tells r4 wato blaming last govt for financial crisis was 'vast lie'...
PoliticsHome @politicshome
Former Labour minister Chris Mullin says Tory strategist Lynton Crosby is “demeaning politics”. “In my view he needs to be run out of town.”
Surely the property market is two nations. Is London and the south east in a bubble?? arguably. The rest of the country? absolutely not.
So what's to be done?
Mullin also calls on Ed Miliband to "make more use" of Alistair Darling, and the "immensely credible" Alan Johnson. #wato
Alan Johnson to replace Ed Balls...
@TomHarrisMP:
@ChrisBryantMP talks huge amount of sense on immigration. He'll make an outstanding minister. Again.
This is where you need to listen to Mark Carney & team. So far they are happy with the policy. We are coming off lows and volumes are nowhere near previous top-of-the-bubble levels.
Is it ideal? Of course not. However, no party is brave (suicidal) enough to take the necessary action to bring back house prices to more acceptable levels. So we are where we are.
It is a minor, so far controlled move by GO to "get the economy going". I can live with it for the moment.
A masterstroke policy that was popular around the country and won them many a vote in the GE.
Perhaps Bryant could give another 'Rivers of Blunder' speech suggesting that we ban foreigners from buying British property?
The gag is that many voters in swing constituencies are still in that bust.
Labour are adamant that shouldn't change, in case it further enriches tory voters in the South East. We can't have THAT.
VERY credible. Still his personal life intervened so crying for him or Mr Darling is moot.
Proof that Crosby is toxic surely ?
Forget the previous one's - here's your new avatar.
http://www.therecycler.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/crystal-ball-157x200.jpg
It does contain a statement from Campbell Robb, the Chief Exectuive of the charity Shelter:
“Some will see house price inflation as good news, but with a priced-out generation and their parents worried about their prospects of climbing on to the property ladder, the result will be many people tempted to overstretch themselves before prices rise completely out of reach”
So a fairly anodyne warning about the risks and consequences of of overborrowing, but even from Shelter, no call for Help to Buy to be withdrawn. I did become slightly suspicious as to why Shelter, a charity which deals with the homeless should be expressing caution to a national newspaper about a scheme which targets government assistance to first time buyers of housing.
A quick visit to Shelter's website answers the question. Before joining Shelter in October 2010, Campbell Robb was - yes, you guessed it - "the first Director General of the Office of the Third Sector in the Cabinet Office, responsible for leading the Government’s work with the third sector". A job title that even Gilbert and Sullivan would have been proud to have coined.
The FT journalist begins a paragraph with the old chestnut of "Experts say that the government should consider abandoning ...". And yet neither the two 'experts' subsequently argue anything of the sort.
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight says: "should the housing market gain substantial momentum ... the case for dropping the scheme will strengthen". Well you don't say Mr. Archer.
And the secoond expert, an Adam Challis, head of residential research at Jones Lang LaSalle, even seems to advising readers to hurry up to take advantage of the scheme. He then cautions borrowers to consider the impact of future interest rate rises on affordability. Well you don't say Mr. Challis.
tim, you really must up your game. If your posts continue to repeat this meme, you risk becoming the Chris Bryant of PB.
Absolutely, and foreigners are quite happy to pay the premium for the safety and peace of mind that 10 centuries of being an island and upholding the rights of the property owner brings you.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3577416/As-Macmillan-never-said-thats-enough-quotations.html
It's risible. And clearly not working. The more Labourites squawk - implore Obama to intervene et al it just looks desperate.
FFS - for your own good STFU and get some serious guns of your own.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23677887
The Home Builders Federation said the scheme had been an "unqualified success" and its extension next year to homes that were not new builds would have a "potentially bigger influence" on the market.
Man will apologise for agreeing
Man on a boat
Man on a train
Double dip
Man gets out of a car
Man eats burger
Triple dip
How many have I missed?
Do I think that Help-to-Buy will raise the likelihood of the house market recovering? Yes.
Do I think the £12bn guarantee over 3 years, the underwriting cost of which will be borne by the lenders is prudent? Yes.
Do I think that the 'bubble' hysteria is a sign of a worried opposition? Yes.
Darling would clearly be better than Balls, but moving him prior to the referendum result would be a serious risk. If the Scots voted to separate then it would damage Labour slightly more than the Conservatives, and Darling could not possibly be the Shadow Chancellor representing his present constituency.
I look forward to more of the same. And he gives good wonk.
Please will you name the PB Tories - as that is the second time you have used this vague definition in this thread. @carl bottled out when challenged with the same question. Will you have the guts to define exactly who you mean?
1) I'm not sure your scaling of the size of the US campaign compared with what is needed in the UK is right. In both cases, when targeting resources, you're really only interested in the places which can swing the outcome, which in the US means around a dozen or so, twenty max, battleground states, and in the UK means around 80 marginal seats. For the UK, that means a maximimum of about 5.6 million voters (80 x avg constituency of 70,000). Contrast with the US, where just five key battleground states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia) account for a population of over 60 million. Plus of course there's no TV advertising here, so the spending is much, much lower. Direct targeting of those key marginal voters in the UK shouldn't be prohibitively expensive.
2) I do think individualising, or at least targeting by area category, of leaflets is absolutely key. Most political leaflets are abysmally poor: they are badly laid out, look awful, are stuffed with far too many different messages, and just don't grab attention. You've got about three seconds before the leaflet goes in the bin, so you need a really, really simple message - in the UK, the LibDems have done best on this score with their 'only the LibDems can stop the Tories here'. But there's no reason why other parties can't run a more sophisticated leafleting campaign than this. For example, in a Con/Lab marginal, the message you want to get out in traditionally Conservative areas should be targeted at those swaying UKIP-wards (broadly, 'vote for us or get Balls'). In more mixed or Lab-leaning areas, it should emphasise the postitive achievements of the coalition, because you're trying to tone down or mute voters fears about you, notstoke up their fears about Labour (they probably don't have much fear of Labour).
There's no reason why this can't be done street-by-street, even if it can't be done house-by-house.
3) Finally, don't underestimate the sophistication of direct mail nowadays. It costs money, but you can get very targeted delivery.
By definition that excludes the PB Kinnocks who have never disagreed with tim on any subject ever, and have therefore been wrong along with him.
I find it most peculiar that so many fail to appreciate what a specialist field this is when done well. Like all marketing - crap in/crap out and if your leaflets are amateurish/using lots of fonts/bad pix/stuffed with info they'll fail.
That such basics have eluded politics for so long is bizarre - I could strangle the eager who think marketing is a logo or lots of logos and a festival of Comic Sans.
The "just party allegiance" thing is a recent development pushed onto activists to try and increase the number of houses they can get through. (There's also a problem of a low threshold of responder fatigue in doorstepping).
Likewise for leaflets, you can do individualised ones (usually using addressed envelopes) and I've been part of trying it. The trade off again is additional time in production and delivery.
The other thing with the USA is that the UK's data protection laws are much stricter, meaning things like buying email addresses is much more possible over there than over here.
The rule of thumb is that UK politics is 10-15 years behind the USA one, I think there is a movement towards more detailed and targeted campaigning, but the lack of money and data protection laws will make it difficult.
I wonder if a larger proportion of the UK or USA population is considered to live in battleground areas.
I won a decent amount on Ed Miliband winning the leadership election and a few quid at decent odds on George Galloway winning an election in Bradford
Long may I continue to get such elections so badly wrong
Care to remind us all of the NewsSense™ losing candidates for Labour leader?
There are always exceptions to the rule - so canvassing fills in the blanks or spots convert candidates.
But 80% of the basic messaging will be generic - that leaves the 20% to be wooed more specifically - and say 20% of them who need personal attention to pull them in.
http://rhombuscomms.squarespace.com/blog/2013/8/11/from-the-high-court-a-guide-to-spotting-election-fraud.html
If it makes them feel better - great. A comfort blanket wins no votes.
Who are they recruiting to duel with him and Mr Crosby?
http://order-order.com/2013/08/13/now-bad-al-weighs-in-to-criticise-labours-messaging/
Is it the Luddite Labour movement trusting in Dinosaurs, masses of motivated members trudging round with clipboards and a ground war presenting to apathetic anti politics voters. Backed up by IOS and Algorithms, is this a winning combination?
Maybe membership is a thing of the past (after all, most of the population look on a member of any political party as an obsessive oddity and are not well disposed to canvassing). Maybe Messinas magical methodologies will reach, convert and enthuse just enough voters for the party of the dead to pull off a shock win.
The 2015 election will be so unlike 2010 that predictions may be luck more than skill for many an amateur enthusiast.
In the USA if you identify some indicators for your supporters (say buying a Volvo), you can go out, buy a load of email addresses for people who've bought volvos and get to work.
In the UK, if you try that then you get in trouble from the data protection agency.
Is this true, and, if so, is it wise?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2013/08/nigel-farage-to-give-neil-hamilton-leading-role-in-ukip/
@GarethOfTheVale is one of our resident experts here IIRC.
True? No idea.
Neil Hamilton will attract about -3% to UKIP VI numbers if used widely, I would expect.
Insurance companies and police forces sell details of accidents to claims firms for Heaven's sake.
This feels like a lot of *Tories have wasted loads of dosh on this overrated bloke and it'll be a failure because no one asked any questions in advance so we're all right then*.
http://www.ukip.org/the-party/nec
I'm happy to be corrected if wrong, to the best of my knowledge data can be passed on to related services (with appropriate small print in the original thing they filled out), but not unrelated ones.
Are you saying this is categorically incorrect?
If you have a look at forms, you will often see tick boxes like:-
[ ] Don't receive marketing from members of our group.
[ ] Don't receive marketing from carefully selected third parties.
If you don't tick the second box, then your info can be sold.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2390672/Elon-Musks-Hyperloop-shoot-passengers-LA-San-Francisco-30-mins.html
Miles quicker than HS2 - Looks like an amazing concept. LA - SF is 900 miles, so the theory is workable for the UK.
I wonder how long those two will get, and how long before we get the bleeding hearts saying they were innocent/forced into it/didn't know what cocaine was/doing it for a friend who has a sick mum..
No sign of a bubble. Worse would be allowing the inanility to remortage to force a bunch of identakit BTL flats on to the market at the same time and crash property prices. Capital reconstruction needed at the banks, feel good factor wiped out.
Real property prices (as a multiple) are too high thanks to Labour. Deflation needs to happen slowly.
That said, it is not up to Messina to know the laws; presumably the Tories have advised him on all of that. More important will be how to structure a message to make it worth reading and persuadable. It seems to me that the most interesting aspect of all this is the social media one and how Messina uses that. If you are not very good at something, then you need to bring in people to make you better. He undoubtedly has the potential to do that - or at least to lay the foundations for future success. It's a good hire, but one that will perhaps not make as much difference as some folk - on both the Labour and Tory sides of the divide - believe.
Osborne's schemes are about avoiding a near term crisis. This may result in an increase in near term house prices (although - as always - you fail to segregate London and ex-London)
Long-term reductions in the relative cost of housing (I would prefer house prices rising by less than nominal incomes rather than a fall in house prices) would be beneficial for the economy.
Labour left such a terribly unbalanced economy that near term fixes are necessary to stop the whole kaboodle exploding
Cluck cluck.
Quite. This house prices thing is the deadest horse tim has ever flogged.
First Chris Bryant and now tim.
Is arguing against yourself the new labour strategy?
Housing price deflation is disastrous - why do you never mention this? It stops people moving house, thus distorting the labour market, it stop housebuilders building, it wrecks household and bank finances, and it kills growth in a large sector of the economy (conveyancing agents, estate agents, solicitors, builders and decorators, carpet shops, furniture shops, DIY shops, etc etc). All Osborne is doing is stabilising things a bit. It's working very well - the catastrophic decline in prices outside London and the SE seems at last to be stopping, in some cases at nominal prices not seen for over a decade. Some bubble!
Guido's website is often a source of amusement and interest and I give him great credit for the way he has been the scourge of greedy politicians but he has a serious blind spot over Israel. For a supposed libertarian he is very predisposed to the Israelis = Good, Palestinians = BAD, way of thinking.
Anyone who believes or pushes the argument that the conflict there is as clear-cut as that arouses my suspicion.