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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What do you think will be the outcome of the 2015 General E

SystemSystem Posts: 11,721
edited August 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What do you think will be the outcome of the 2015 General Election?

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  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Con Maj Nailed On

    Cameron First!
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited August 2013
    The Conservatives seem to be trying to centralise co-ordination of [new] volunteer activists, by-passing the local conservative associations.

    "Every volunteer is phone interviewed by our team of voluntary coordinators who are based full time in CCHQ – just outside the door to my office. We then assign each member to one of our 40/40 target seats, based on the skills they possess.

    The key to Team 2015 is careful targeting. We’re focused on seeking out the talents and abilities of each person who signs-up and we allocate volunteers to each target seat based, not just on their location, but also for the first time in the history of the Party, based on the skills they possess."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/07/grant-shapps.html

    "Messina, as the campaign manger who got Obama re-elected, is an expert on how to marry online campaigning and traditional door-knocking.

    He’s better placed than anybody to offer advice on Team 2015.

    I’m told that it already has several thousand volunteers signed up and has started canvassing in various key seats."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2389176/Now-Eds-betting-entire-future-single-speech.html
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    87 weeks is a long time in politics.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,037
    edited August 2013
    FPT

    isam said:
    » show previous quotes
    So does Stephen Fry!

    Imagine hailing a a black cab only to be lectured on the unfairness of the Russian education systems attitude to homosexuals by the driver
    *splutters LOL coughs*


    could the premise for a sketch show gag, Stephen Fry as a London cabbie, setting up an un PC gag only to deliver a right on punch line a la Bernard...


    http://youtu.be/svLyyzBC_qI

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Snap Morgan SMS poll to the Australian leaders' debate last night (this morning UK time)

    Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Great stuff.

    The Conservatives seem to be trying to centralise co-ordination of [new] volunteer activists, by-passing the local conservative associations.

    "Every volunteer is phone interviewed by our team of voluntary coordinators who are based full time in CCHQ – just outside the door to my office. We then assign each member to one of our 40/40 target seats, based on the skills they possess.

    The key to Team 2015 is careful targeting. We’re focused on seeking out the talents and abilities of each person who signs-up and we allocate volunteers to each target seat based, not just on their location, but also for the first time in the history of the Party, based on the skills they possess."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/07/grant-shapps.html

    "Messina, as the campaign manger who got Obama re-elected, is an expert on how to marry online campaigning and traditional door-knocking.

    He’s better placed than anybody to offer advice on Team 2015.

    I’m told that it already has several thousand volunteers signed up and has started canvassing in various key seats."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2389176/Now-Eds-betting-entire-future-single-speech.html

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Premitrom @premitrom
    So @ChrisBryantMP how's that re-framing of the narrative on immigration working out for ya?

    LOL
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    dr_spyn said:

    87 weeks is a long time in politics.

    *grins*
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @Avery FPT - it's a green black cab. But the light's rarely on.

    @Plato re: ginger snaps - you need to be careful. He might have thought you were propositioning him...

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:


    Assuming that the Mail is correct (a big assumption I'll grant you) it is deeply worrying.

    To be fair, there are some reasonably experienced individuals in the Shadow Cabinet (Harman, Balls, Cooper, etc).

    But there are also a huge number of important positions held by very very inexperienced and untested individuals (e.g. Rachel Reeves, Luciana Berger, Chuka Ummana).

    I'm not sure a Cabinet with those last three individuals in it is a Cabinet I'd have confidence in, regardless of whether I agree with them or not.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    The Conservatives seem to be trying to centralise co-ordination of [new] volunteer activists, by-passing the local conservative associations.

    "Every volunteer is phone interviewed by our team of voluntary coordinators who are based full time in CCHQ – just outside the door to my office. We then assign each member to one of our 40/40 target seats, based on the skills they possess.

    The key to Team 2015 is careful targeting. We’re focused on seeking out the talents and abilities of each person who signs-up and we allocate volunteers to each target seat based, not just on their location, but also for the first time in the history of the Party, based on the skills they possess."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/07/grant-shapps.html

    "Messina, as the campaign manger who got Obama re-elected, is an expert on how to marry online campaigning and traditional door-knocking.

    He’s better placed than anybody to offer advice on Team 2015.

    I’m told that it already has several thousand volunteers signed up and has started canvassing in various key seats."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2389176/Now-Eds-betting-entire-future-single-speech.html

    I guess these are all on zero hours contracts .
    The key question is can these volunteers replace the hundreds of lost members/activists .
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:
    » show previous quotes
    So does Stephen Fry!

    Imagine hailing a a black cab only to be lectured on the unfairness of the Russian education systems attitude to homosexuals by the driver
    *splutters LOL coughs*


    could the premise for a sketch show gag, Stephen Fry as a London cabbie, setting up an un PC gag only to deliver a right on punch line a la Bernard...

    That is a laugh a gag sketch that's clever, sharp and perfectly framed.

    Never fails to make me giggle or LOL.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited August 2013

    The Conservatives seem to be trying to centralise co-ordination of [new] volunteer activists, by-passing the local conservative associations.

    "Every volunteer is phone interviewed by our team of voluntary coordinators who are based full time in CCHQ – just outside the door to my office. We then assign each member to one of our 40/40 target seats, based on the skills they possess.

    The key to Team 2015 is careful targeting. We’re focused on seeking out the talents and abilities of each person who signs-up and we allocate volunteers to each target seat based, not just on their location, but also for the first time in the history of the Party, based on the skills they possess."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/07/grant-shapps.html

    "Messina, as the campaign manger who got Obama re-elected, is an expert on how to marry online campaigning and traditional door-knocking.

    He’s better placed than anybody to offer advice on Team 2015.

    I’m told that it already has several thousand volunteers signed up and has started canvassing in various key seats."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2389176/Now-Eds-betting-entire-future-single-speech.html

    I guess these are all on zero hours contracts .
    The key question is can these volunteers replace the hundreds of lost members/activists .
    How are the LDs responding to their membership decline?

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Conservatives seem to be trying to centralise co-ordination of [new] volunteer activists, by-passing the local conservative associations.

    "Every volunteer is phone interviewed by our team of voluntary coordinators who are based full time in CCHQ – just outside the door to my office. We then assign each member to one of our 40/40 target seats, based on the skills they possess.

    The key to Team 2015 is careful targeting. We’re focused on seeking out the talents and abilities of each person who signs-up and we allocate volunteers to each target seat based, not just on their location, but also for the first time in the history of the Party, based on the skills they possess."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/07/grant-shapps.html

    "Messina, as the campaign manger who got Obama re-elected, is an expert on how to marry online campaigning and traditional door-knocking.

    He’s better placed than anybody to offer advice on Team 2015.

    I’m told that it already has several thousand volunteers signed up and has started canvassing in various key seats."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2389176/Now-Eds-betting-entire-future-single-speech.html

    I guess these are all on zero hours contracts .
    The key question is can these volunteers replace the hundreds of lost members/activists .
    If they have "several thousand" and focus them effectively on the 80 target seats that is probably a minimum of 30-35 per seat. Assuming that they get a reasonable degree of commitment over an extended period in the same seat that could easily be more effective than the historical membership which, in my experience, never really did much
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    !!!!!!!

    Nick Boles @GeneralBoles
    @BBC_Joe_Lynam @SamCoatesTimes It's how @LordAshcroft does his polling... pic.twitter.com/qmSQ6QHR08

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRZymMpCQAAJWIl.jpg:large
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022

    How are the LDs responding to their membership decline?

    Targeting fewer seats?
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    The Conservatives seem to be trying to centralise co-ordination of [new] volunteer activists, by-passing the local conservative associations.

    "Every volunteer is phone interviewed by our team of voluntary coordinators who are based full time in CCHQ – just outside the door to my office. We then assign each member to one of our 40/40 target seats, based on the skills they possess.

    The key to Team 2015 is careful targeting. We’re focused on seeking out the talents and abilities of each person who signs-up and we allocate volunteers to each target seat based, not just on their location, but also for the first time in the history of the Party, based on the skills they possess."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/07/grant-shapps.html

    "Messina, as the campaign manger who got Obama re-elected, is an expert on how to marry online campaigning and traditional door-knocking.

    He’s better placed than anybody to offer advice on Team 2015.

    I’m told that it already has several thousand volunteers signed up and has started canvassing in various key seats."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2389176/Now-Eds-betting-entire-future-single-speech.html

    I guess these are all on zero hours contracts .
    The key question is can these volunteers replace the hundreds of lost members/activists .
    How are the LDs responding to their membership decline?

    The loss of LD members and their tithes is of no consequence. All poll movements are good news for the LDs. We are their supplicants.
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    ST.. It makes them all deliriously happy..Pork, J Kelly, S Dickson, TUD. MalcolmG.. et al..
    It must be something to do with ferocious midges and kilts
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Given that I am the dream date for all of Sussex's midges and have the very attractive welts to prove it - the idea of visiting Ft William is about as attractive as a month in the Everglades.

    ST.. It makes them all deliriously happy..Pork, J Kelly, S Dickson, TUD. MalcolmG.. et al..
    It must be something to do with ferocious midges and kilts

  • Options
    NextNext Posts: 826
    SeanT said:

    It is currently 12C and raining in Fort William. It hasn't got much above 14C in three days of rain and wind.

    How do the Scots cope with this climate? I'm getting the sleeper to London tonight, it will be like getting the night train to Nice.

    Eat Haggis?

    Whinge about the English?

    Wish they didn't have to wear kilts?
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    HYUFD said:
    Will that be like Nelson Mandela Towers in Only Fools and Horses?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    edited August 2013
    Charles said:



    Assuming that the Mail is correct (a big assumption I'll grant you) it is deeply worrying.

    To be fair, there are some reasonably experienced individuals in the Shadow Cabinet (Harman, Balls, Cooper, etc).

    But there are also a huge number of important positions held by very very inexperienced and untested individuals (e.g. Rachel Reeves, Luciana Berger, Chuka Ummana).

    I'm not sure a Cabinet with those last three individuals in it is a Cabinet I'd have confidence in, regardless of whether I agree with them or not.

    Berger is the only one I know reasonably well, but she's serious and competent. It's essential to have some new faces in the mix - we can't simply offer a 2010 nostalgia trip.

    The Tory volunteer strategy is interesting. My guess is that it will work well in London, where we are all used to jumping on a Tube and going to places we've never heard of before in pursuit of The Cause, but not elsewhere - at least, I've always found significant problems in getting people to shift from one town to another even within the constituency, and anecdotally I gather the Tories did too even when they had more activists.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Plato - Slightly grander street I think, Major has holidayed there since he was PM
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited August 2013
    There are many Tories in PB. But only 17% of PB posters can carry with them the title PBTory.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    " About 40 per cent of white Americans and about 25 per cent of non-white Americans have friends exclusively from their own race, according to findings from a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

    Even when a broader circle of acquaintances such as co-workers is included, 30 per cent of Americans do not mix with those of a different race, the survey found.

    The poll was published just weeks before the 50th anniversary of the civil rights leader’s speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial during the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom, on 28 August 1963. To mark the date this year, President Obama will deliver speech entitled Let Freedom Ring from the spot where Dr King stood, highlighting jobs and employment, a key theme of the event half a century ago." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/americas/article3839980.ece

    And in the UK 1/10 have a best friend from another ethnic group.

    "Ghettos have sprung up and – as a result of immigrants moving near their relatives and many white Britons leaving inner cities – over time they become consolidated outposts of different lands. Research from the demographer Prof Eric Kaufmann shows that nearly half of all ethnic minorities living in Britain – around four million people – now live in areas where white Britons make up less than half the population.

    Furthermore, children from particular communities are often – as a result of these population shifts and parental choice – in schools where their own “minority” ethnicity is the majority. And, thanks to technology that was supposed to connect us – satellite television, the internet – migrants are able to insulate themselves from British culture and language. YouGov polling shows that one in 10 of us has a best friend from another ethnicity. But in too many areas there is a lack of contact, let alone intimacy, across ethnic lines." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10233993/Immigration-We-must-break-down-the-barriers-of-Britains-ghettos.html
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Charles said:



    Assuming that the Mail is correct (a big assumption I'll grant you) it is deeply worrying.

    To be fair, there are some reasonably experienced individuals in the Shadow Cabinet (Harman, Balls, Cooper, etc).

    But there are also a huge number of important positions held by very very inexperienced and untested individuals (e.g. Rachel Reeves, Luciana Berger, Chuka Ummana).

    I'm not sure a Cabinet with those last three individuals in it is a Cabinet I'd have confidence in, regardless of whether I agree with them or not.

    Berger is the only one I know reasonably well, but she's serious and competent. It's essential to have some new faces in the mix - we can't simply offer a 2010 nostalgia trip.

    The Tory volunteer strategy is interesting. My guess is that it will work well in London, where we are all used to jumping on a Tube and going to places we've never heard of before in pursuit of The Cause, but not elsewhere - at least, I've always found significant problems in getting people to shift from one town to another even within the constituency, and anecdotally I gather the Tories did too even when they had more activists.
    Perhaps it works better if they are allocated on day one? When the volunteer urge is highest. Then they become part of a team.

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,037
    Plato said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:
    » show previous quotes
    So does Stephen Fry!

    Imagine hailing a a black cab only to be lectured on the unfairness of the Russian education systems attitude to homosexuals by the driver
    *splutters LOL coughs*


    could the premise for a sketch show gag, Stephen Fry as a London cabbie, setting up an un PC gag only to deliver a right on punch line a la Bernard...

    That is a laugh a gag sketch that's clever, sharp and perfectly framed.

    Never fails to make me giggle or LOL.
    Ben Elton has changed, nowadays Owen Jones has taken up the mantle

    Spot on impression for anyone who remembers Saturday Live on Ch4 circa 1986

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JSuMSu20avs&feature=youtu.be&desktop_uri=/watch?v=JSuMSu20avs&feature=youtu.be
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    HYUFD said:
    Haha! Our trusty Spanish EU partners! What a joke (on us) this whole EU disaster is. Bets that the top brass in the EU say zilch to Spanish perfidy.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    Charles Kennedy MP is 3 yards away in Ft William station trying to buy two 2nd class sleeper berths with adjoining doors. Not sure whether to be impressed by his budgeting or scandalised by the implications.

    That he actually works for his constituents?
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    " Lord Stephen of Lower Deeside [LD] has repeatedly spoken in favour of wind energy, warning ministers they must get behind the industry or risk £100 billion of investment, and tabled amendments to the Government’s Energy Bill.

    His Lords speeches have started by referring to his register of interests, which states that he is the director of an Aberdeen-based company called Renewable Energy Ventures (REV) Ltd.

    However, documents lodged with Companies House show there are actually nine firms in the REV network, seven of which have been incorporated within the past five months.

    The former Scottish Deputy First Minister is also director of a company called Pilot Offshore Renewables, also formed in April, which is not mentioned in his register of interests.

    House of Lords rules state that Members must be “especially cautious in deciding whether to speak or vote” in debates that relate to their private business interests. > http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10235949/Lord-Stephen-facing-questions-over-wind-farm-empire.html
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:



    Assuming that the Mail is correct (a big assumption I'll grant you) it is deeply worrying.

    To be fair, there are some reasonably experienced individuals in the Shadow Cabinet (Harman, Balls, Cooper, etc).

    But there are also a huge number of important positions held by very very inexperienced and untested individuals (e.g. Rachel Reeves, Luciana Berger, Chuka Ummana).

    I'm not sure a Cabinet with those last three individuals in it is a Cabinet I'd have confidence in, regardless of whether I agree with them or not.

    Berger is the only one I know reasonably well, but she's serious and competent. It's essential to have some new faces in the mix - we can't simply offer a 2010 nostalgia trip.

    The Tory volunteer strategy is interesting. My guess is that it will work well in London, where we are all used to jumping on a Tube and going to places we've never heard of before in pursuit of The Cause, but not elsewhere - at least, I've always found significant problems in getting people to shift from one town to another even within the constituency, and anecdotally I gather the Tories did too even when they had more activists.
    A 35 year old simply doesn't have the experience, maturity or judgement to run a major department. Regardless of how competent they are: administrative efficiency isn't what you need to navigate the civil service effectively.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:
    YPF is a bigger bone of contention than any Gib-Falklands agreement. It's be an opportunity for a press-release, nothing more.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Plato said:

    Great stuff.

    The Conservatives seem to be trying to centralise co-ordination of [new] volunteer activists, by-passing the local conservative associations.

    "Every volunteer is phone interviewed by our team of voluntary coordinators who are based full time in CCHQ – just outside the door to my office. We then assign each member to one of our 40/40 target seats, based on the skills they possess.

    The key to Team 2015 is careful targeting. We’re focused on seeking out the talents and abilities of each person who signs-up and we allocate volunteers to each target seat based, not just on their location, but also for the first time in the history of the Party, based on the skills they possess."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/07/grant-shapps.html

    "Messina, as the campaign manger who got Obama re-elected, is an expert on how to marry online campaigning and traditional door-knocking.

    He’s better placed than anybody to offer advice on Team 2015.

    I’m told that it already has several thousand volunteers signed up and has started canvassing in various key seats."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2389176/Now-Eds-betting-entire-future-single-speech.html


    "One of its advantages is that it works outside the party’s traditional, declining membership structure. But it will still have to deal with the party’s voter-targeting software, Merlin.

    Merlin is loathed by many MPs and Tory activists who simply think it doesn’t work; they point to how it crashed at key points during the Eastleigh by-election campaign.

    If Messina can find a way to deal with this problem, then he really will be a campaign wizard."

    Labour election organisors will be saddened by this. They had come to love Merlin as the Labour Party's best weapon against the Tories !


  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    YPF is a bigger bone of contention than any Gib-Falklands agreement. It's be an opportunity for a press-release, nothing more.
    Isn't Rajoy a bosom pal of the Tories ?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    YPF is a bigger bone of contention than any Gib-Falklands agreement. It's be an opportunity for a press-release, nothing more.
    Isn't Rajoy a bosom pal of the Tories ?
    Rajoy gets to distract from domestic economics. Cameron gets to "face down" Spain and appeal to the Kippers.

    Nothing changes in the real world.

    Are you sure they aren't bosom pals...?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Assuming that the Mail is correct (a big assumption I'll grant you) it is deeply worrying.

    To be fair, there are some reasonably experienced individuals in the Shadow Cabinet (Harman, Balls, Cooper, etc).

    But there are also a huge number of important positions held by very very inexperienced and untested individuals (e.g. Rachel Reeves, Luciana Berger, Chuka Ummana).

    I'm not sure a Cabinet with those last three individuals in it is a Cabinet I'd have confidence in, regardless of whether I agree with them or not.

    Berger is the only one I know reasonably well, but she's serious and competent. It's essential to have some new faces in the mix - we can't simply offer a 2010 nostalgia trip.

    The Tory volunteer strategy is interesting. My guess is that it will work well in London, where we are all used to jumping on a Tube and going to places we've never heard of before in pursuit of The Cause, but not elsewhere - at least, I've always found significant problems in getting people to shift from one town to another even within the constituency, and anecdotally I gather the Tories did too even when they had more activists.
    A 35 year old simply doesn't have the experience, maturity or judgement to run a major department. Regardless of how competent they are: administrative efficiency isn't what you need to navigate the civil service effectively.
    But a 40 year old can be Prime MInister who has never had any ministeral experience whatsoover. Where do you get this bullcrap ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    surbiton said:

    There are many Tories in PB. But only 17% of PB posters can carry with them the title PBTory.

    The rest are PB Burleys, apparently.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,193

    ST.. It makes them all deliriously happy..Pork, J Kelly, S Dickson, TUD. MalcolmG.. et al..
    It must be something to do with ferocious midges and kilts

    Bunch of woosies , back to your concrete jungle and fry in the sweaty morass
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited August 2013
    surbiton said:

    Charles said:



    A 35 year old simply doesn't have the experience, maturity or judgement to run a major department. Regardless of how competent they are: administrative efficiency isn't what you need to navigate the civil service effectively.

    But a 40 year old can be Prime MInister who has never had any ministeral experience whatsoover. Where do you get this bullcrap ?
    I'd rather than PMs were older - personally I think the 'cult of youth' is over-rated.

    I think the minimum ages in the US system are a good idea.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,193
    Next said:

    SeanT said:

    It is currently 12C and raining in Fort William. It hasn't got much above 14C in three days of rain and wind.

    How do the Scots cope with this climate? I'm getting the sleeper to London tonight, it will be like getting the night train to Nice.

    Eat Haggis?

    Whinge about the English?

    Wish they didn't have to wear kilts?
    You seem to be a bit confused about who does the whinging , typical though
  • Options
    MikeK said:

    HYUFD said:
    Haha! Our trusty Spanish EU partners! What a joke (on us) this whole EU disaster is. Bets that the top brass in the EU say zilch to Spanish perfidy.
    Spain acceded to the EU in 1986. I blame Maggie for not insisting on a permanent concession over Gibraltar when allowing Spain in.

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    So from going from a boycott - now Mr Fry just wants a simple gesture. Thank heaven's he's actually realised that depriving others of their life ambitions are actually important when riding his hobby-horse over them. Still - he hasn't noticed #Russia2013 athletics that's on right now...

    " Mr Fry has come up with a new plan to protest over what he calls the "unspeakable" treatment of the gay community in Russia.

    He has called on athletes competing in the Sochi Winter Olympics in Russia to make a "simple gesture" of solidarity by crossing the their arms over their chest whilst receiving their medals.

    "[Its] just a simple gesture, they can't take that away, they're not going to chop their arms off", Mr Fry said. The British actor, who has written an open letter to Prime Minister David Cameron asking him to boycott the Winter Olympics, was speaking at Gay Pride in Glasgow..."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10236185/Stephen-Fry-asks-athletes-to-protest-at-Russian-Winter-Olympics-with-simple-gesture.html
  • Options
    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    BBC this morning passing off wages data report as coming from "apolitical House of Commons library". Now admitting it's a Labour Party instigated piece of analysis.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    MikeK - Indeed. Charles - we must hope so!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    If there were to be a war against Spain and Argentina, presumably we could ally with Portugal as we did in the past and Chile as we did in the Falklands?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Charles said:


    A 35 year old simply doesn't have the experience, maturity or judgement to run a major department. Regardless of how competent they are: administrative efficiency isn't what you need to navigate the civil service effectively.

    Think you're generalising too much - obviously lack of experience is relevant but may be outweighed by other factors: I know people in their 20s with a maturity that eludes some in their 50s. When I was 30 I was running a £2 million project across 20 countries and it worked out OK. For that matter, we've had some reasonable young monarchs and PMs.

    I think voters should be able to choose anyone at all - even in theory a foreigner or a teenager - as part of their role of assessing the best candidate. Why should we circumscribe their choice with a few arbitrary restrictions?

  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SeanT said:

    It is currently 12C and raining in Fort William. It hasn't got much above 14C in three days of rain and wind.

    How do the Scots cope with this climate? I'm getting the sleeper to London tonight, it will be like getting the night train to Nice.

    Fort William used to be a popular destination for honeymoon couples, who made their own entertainment.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Spain acceded to the EU in 1986. I blame Maggie for not insisting on a permanent concession over Gibraltar when allowing Spain in.

    It was MrsT who got the border open in the first place as part of the accession agreement. Before that it had been closed by the Spanish since 1969, so she did very well considering.

  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Rexel56 said:

    BBC this morning passing off wages data report as coming from "apolitical House of Commons library". Now admitting it's a Labour Party instigated piece of analysis.

    The Commons library is apolitical and all its research is instigated by one party or another. How else could it be?
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    It is currently 12C and raining in Fort William. It hasn't got much above 14C in three days of rain and wind.

    How do the Scots cope with this climate? I'm getting the sleeper to London tonight, it will be like getting the night train to Nice.

    Fort William used to be a popular destination for honeymoon couples, who made their own entertainment.
    Reminds me of the Western Isles man who was asked how he occupied his time. "Well there's the fishing and the fornicating and in the winter, there's not so much of the fishing".
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,193
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    ST.. It makes them all deliriously happy..Pork, J Kelly, S Dickson, TUD. MalcolmG.. et al..
    It must be something to do with ferocious midges and kilts

    Bunch of woosies , back to your concrete jungle and fry in the sweaty morass
    As regular pb-ers know, I am a big fan of Scotland, especially the Highlands & Islands. But there's no getting round the fact the climate is depressing in a particularly relentless way. Even in the few brief nice days of summer, you have to contend with midges and clegs.

    There's a reason Scotland is sparsely populated, despite its beauty, and it ain't nasty English landlords with their Cheviot sheep.
    Sean, the geography up north , lack of facilities and ownership of huge tracts by a few foreigners mean it will always be sparsely populated and at times can be bleak but many parts of England are often as bleak and as crap. I have lived extensively in England and it is little different to Scotland apart from being a bit warmer in summer in the south . London in the heat is a hellhole and I would choose living near the sea with a breeze anytime as opposed to that, and the density of population makes if difficult to have a decent day out at weekends and holidays, so no paradise. If you were comparing to Nice , Montpellier , etc then you do have a point.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited August 2013

    Charles said:


    A 35 year old simply doesn't have the experience, maturity or judgement to run a major department. Regardless of how competent they are: administrative efficiency isn't what you need to navigate the civil service effectively.

    Think you're generalising too much - obviously lack of experience is relevant but may be outweighed by other factors: I know people in their 20s with a maturity that eludes some in their 50s. When I was 30 I was running a £2 million project across 20 countries and it worked out OK. For that matter, we've had some reasonable young monarchs and PMs.

    I think voters should be able to choose anyone at all - even in theory a foreigner or a teenager - as part of their role of assessing the best candidate. Why should we circumscribe their choice with a few arbitrary restrictions?

    Of course you will always find mature people in their 20s and fools in their 50s. It's the combination of experience and maturity that enables people to be effective, and people in their 20s don't have enough experience (and, with the best will in the world, there is a vast difference between a £2m project and running a major department of state with 10s of 1000s of employees).

    We've had the debate about the age of MPs before. I approach the matter from a Burkian perspective - all an MP can offer is their judgement. I simply don't think that a 20 year old has seen enough of the world to offer a truly reflected view. As a result they are more likely to end up as lobby fodder.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    The Conservatives seem to be trying to centralise co-ordination of [new] volunteer activists, by-passing the local conservative associations.

    "Every volunteer is phone interviewed by our team of voluntary coordinators who are based full time in CCHQ – just outside the door to my office. We then assign each member to one of our 40/40 target seats, based on the skills they possess.

    The key to Team 2015 is careful targeting. We’re focused on seeking out the talents and abilities of each person who signs-up and we allocate volunteers to each target seat based, not just on their location, but also for the first time in the history of the Party, based on the skills they possess."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thecolumnists/2013/07/grant-shapps.html

    "Messina, as the campaign manger who got Obama re-elected, is an expert on how to marry online campaigning and traditional door-knocking.

    He’s better placed than anybody to offer advice on Team 2015.

    I’m told that it already has several thousand volunteers signed up and has started canvassing in various key seats."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2389176/Now-Eds-betting-entire-future-single-speech.html

    I guess these are all on zero hours contracts .
    The key question is can these volunteers replace the hundreds of lost members/activists .
    And can they do so without antagonising the remaining local activists?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Plato said:

    So from going from a boycott - now Mr Fry just wants a simple gesture.

    IOC statutes specifically prohibit any political statements being made by athletes in this manner. Park Jong-Woo lost his bronze medal for holding up a banner, for example. Action would be taken over Fry's "simple gesture".

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    GeoffM said:

    Plato said:

    So from going from a boycott - now Mr Fry just wants a simple gesture.

    IOC statutes specifically prohibit any political statements being made by athletes in this manner. Park Jong-Woo lost his bronze medal for holding up a banner, for example. Action would be taken over Fry's "simple gesture".

    Quite. I just find his climb down most entertaining. After epic grandstanding and comparing his disapproval of LGBT rights or not in Russia to Nazis vs Jews, he complained at length to our PM.

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    This is Luvvies Nil - ROTW 10. Frankly, coming off the back of TwitterSilence that just showed the massive hypocrisy of Caitlin Spazz Mong AIDSSSSS IS SO FUNNY Moran et al - I think its worked out perfectly.

    Of course in Ms Moran's case using terms like this is entirely ironic, gives no offence and is very funnnnnnny - so her friends say. But some of them have left Twitter because they've been exposed as well and don't like the facts played back to them.
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    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    ST.. It makes them all deliriously happy..Pork, J Kelly, S Dickson, TUD. MalcolmG.. et al..
    It must be something to do with ferocious midges and kilts

    Bunch of woosies , back to your concrete jungle and fry in the sweaty morass
    As regular pb-ers know, I am a big fan of Scotland, especially the Highlands & Islands. But there's no getting round the fact the climate is depressing in a particularly relentless way. Even in the few brief nice days of summer, you have to contend with midges and clegs.

    There's a reason Scotland is sparsely populated, despite its beauty, and it ain't nasty English landlords with their Cheviot sheep.
    Sean, the geography up north , lack of facilities and ownership of huge tracts by a few foreigners mean it will always be sparsely populated and at times can be bleak but many parts of England are often as bleak and as crap. I have lived extensively in England and it is little different to Scotland apart from being a bit warmer in summer in the south . London in the heat is a hellhole and I would choose living near the sea with a breeze anytime as opposed to that, and the density of population makes if difficult to have a decent day out at weekends and holidays, so no paradise. If you were comparing to Nice , Montpellier , etc then you do have a point.
    I'm surprised to hear of your need for sea breezes , I always thought the Bavarian Alps were your spritual and geographic ideal.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,193
    GeoffM said:

    Plato said:

    So from going from a boycott - now Mr Fry just wants a simple gesture.

    IOC statutes specifically prohibit any political statements being made by athletes in this manner. Park Jong-Woo lost his bronze medal for holding up a banner, for example. Action would be taken over Fry's "simple gesture".

    Geoff, they will all keeping filling their pockets , they do not give a hoot about any laws in Russia, most of those involved would sell their granny if they could make a profit.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RobD said:

    How are the LDs responding to their membership decline?

    Targeting fewer seats?
    Mr Smithson said the other day that the 2015 LD campaign would be "only focusing on those areas where they’ve got an MP or have a good chance of getting one. " but surely that's what they've always done?

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/09/the-numbers-of-lib-dem-lost-deposits-at-ge2015-could-be-in-the-hundreds/
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    In case @PBModerator is twitchy - here is a list of her tweets in all their glory.

    http://storify.com/BethanyBlack/caitlin-moran-champion-of-women-if-you-re-white-ab
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    Stephen Fry learn from someone else? You have to be kidding me!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    TBH - that he chose in all his illiterate luvviness to single out the Winter Olympics when there's a games RIGHT NOW in Russia where Mo won a Gold sums it all up.

    Posturing on stilts. And what really irks me is that it costs him NOTHING professionally. Not a single DVD royalty but he's demanding others sacrifice themselves on his Ego Altar.

    Urgh.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    Stephen Fry learn from someone else? You have to be kidding me!
    I rather liked him when he was just a talented actor and in Fry & Laurie- when this sort become National Treasures, I run a mile. His chronic attention seeking is a self-promotion industry it itself.

    That he's now decided to be Peter Tatchell combined with Pussy Riot is just ....
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Plato said:

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    TBH - that he chose in all his illiterate luvviness to single out the Winter Olympics when there's a games RIGHT NOW in Russia where Mo won a Gold sums it all up.

    Posturing on stilts. And what really irks me is that it costs him NOTHING professionally. Not a single DVD royalty but he's demanding others sacrifice themselves on his Ego Altar.

    Urgh.
    You are right, Plato. Thatcher and Reagan's call to boycott was flatly ignored by British athletes. One Seb Coe, a future Tory MP, won a gols in a famous duel with Steve Ovett.
    Sadly the Americans had to sacrifice 4 years of training.

    If you remember this was to protest Russian invasion of Afganistan. Now-a-days, we invade other countries !
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,823
    @DecrepitJohnL,@Rexel56

    So on average people have been paid less. This isn't (or at least shouldn't be) in the hands of the government. If you've earned less pull your finger out and do your job sufficiently well that you will earn more. If you don't have a job where your performance matters then find one that does.
  • Options
    Plato said:

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    TBH - that he chose in all his illiterate luvviness to single out the Winter Olympics when there's a games RIGHT NOW in Russia where Mo won a Gold sums it all up.

    Posturing on stilts. And what really irks me is that it costs him NOTHING professionally. Not a single DVD royalty but he's demanding others sacrifice themselves on his Ego Altar.

    Urgh.

    Stephen Fry's open letter asks people to show tolerance to others, and addresses it to
    the leader of a party I have for almost all of my life opposed and instinctively disliked
    Does he not see the contradiction there?
    http://www.stephenfry.com/2013/08/07/an-open-letter-to-david-cameron-and-the-ioc/single-page/

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    My parents went to the Moscow Games and it was a joke - Los Angeles as tit-for-tat ditto.

    I feel terribly sorry for the athletes - they train their whole careers and self-absorbed numpties and failing politicians try to hi-jack them for their own ends.

    Yuk.
    surbiton said:

    Plato said:

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    TBH - that he chose in all his illiterate luvviness to single out the Winter Olympics when there's a games RIGHT NOW in Russia where Mo won a Gold sums it all up.

    Posturing on stilts. And what really irks me is that it costs him NOTHING professionally. Not a single DVD royalty but he's demanding others sacrifice themselves on his Ego Altar.

    Urgh.
    You are right, Plato. Thatcher and Reagan's call to boycott was flatly ignored by British athletes. One Seb Coe, a future Tory MP, won a gols in a famous duel with Steve Ovett.
    Sadly the Americans had to sacrifice 4 years of training.

    If you remember this was to protest Russian invasion of Afganistan. Now-a-days, we invade other countries !
  • Options
    Plato said:

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    Stephen Fry learn from someone else? You have to be kidding me!
    I rather liked him when he was just a talented actor and in Fry & Laurie- when this sort become National Treasures, I run a mile. His chronic attention seeking is a self-promotion industry it itself.

    That he's now decided to be Peter Tatchell combined with Pussy Riot is just ....
    Fry was never a talented actor , he has always been a terrible actor. In fact he's a negative renaissance man ; terrible actor , terrible writer , terrible clown , terrible bore.

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Plato said:

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    TBH - that he chose in all his illiterate luvviness to single out the Winter Olympics when there's a games RIGHT NOW in Russia where Mo won a Gold sums it all up.

    Posturing on stilts. And what really irks me is that it costs him NOTHING professionally. Not a single DVD royalty but he's demanding others sacrifice themselves on his Ego Altar.

    Urgh.
    You are right, Plato. Thatcher and Reagan's call to boycott the 1980 OLympics was flatly ignored by British athletes. One Seb Coe, a future Tory MP, won a gold in a famous duel with Steve Ovett.
    Sadly the Americans had to sacrifice 4 years of training.

    If you remember this was to protest Russian invasion of Afganistan. Now-a-days, we invade other countries !

    Were any of the "excuses" worse than the Nazi regime itself ? Berlin 1936 was not boycotted despite Germany's anti Jew, anti Black, anti Slav anti non White records.

    WE rightly laud Jesse Owens historic 4 gold medals in 45 minutes [ the timetable was deliberately skewed against him ]. WE should not forget taht we do so because the US and others did not boycott Berlin Olympics.

    On the other hand, long term boycotts do sap the energy of sporting nations. Boycott of white South Africa worked because it was for an extended period and it hurt their major sport, rugby !
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    I voted for CON most seats, short of majority.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I bracket Fry with Terry Wogan - the latter is a Tory so Fry would object strongly and threaten to leave teh interweb for the 00000000000000th time so his fans could implore him to change his mind once again.

    Plato said:

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    Stephen Fry learn from someone else? You have to be kidding me!
    I rather liked him when he was just a talented actor and in Fry & Laurie- when this sort become National Treasures, I run a mile. His chronic attention seeking is a self-promotion industry it itself.

    That he's now decided to be Peter Tatchell combined with Pussy Riot is just ....
    Fry was never a talented actor , he has always been a terrible actor. In fact he's a negative renaissance man ; terrible actor , terrible writer , terrible clown , terrible bore.

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/11/ethnic-minority-votes-decisive-general-election

    I am sure the American import Messingabout will solve this with some software program.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    I agree with you bar SA - I'm against sanctions as it almost always hurts innocent bystanders. Whether they're shanty folk or cricket players or footballers or whomever.

    Call them political collateral damage. No one cares about them after the event.
    surbiton said:

    Plato said:

    Plato said:

    Then I assume it was pointed out [by me and tens of thousands of others] that he was actually depriving the athletes of their own career dreams so eff off. When he is competing in the luge or even the curling then he can boycott himself.

    You'd have thought he'd have learned from the unsuccessful boycotts in 1980 and 84.
    TBH - that he chose in all his illiterate luvviness to single out the Winter Olympics when there's a games RIGHT NOW in Russia where Mo won a Gold sums it all up.

    Posturing on stilts. And what really irks me is that it costs him NOTHING professionally. Not a single DVD royalty but he's demanding others sacrifice themselves on his Ego Altar.

    Urgh.
    You are right, Plato. Thatcher and Reagan's call to boycott the 1980 OLympics was flatly ignored by British athletes. One Seb Coe, a future Tory MP, won a gold in a famous duel with Steve Ovett.
    Sadly the Americans had to sacrifice 4 years of training.

    If you remember this was to protest Russian invasion of Afganistan. Now-a-days, we invade other countries !

    Were any of the "excuses" worse than the Nazi regime itself ? Berlin 1936 was not boycotted despite Germany's anti Jew, anti Black, anti Slav anti non White records.

    WE rightly laud Jesse Owens historic 4 gold medals in 45 minutes [ the timetable was deliberately skewed against him ]. WE should not forget taht we do so because the US and others did not boycott Berlin Olympics.

    On the other hand, long term boycotts do sap the energy of sporting nations. Boycott of white South Africa worked because it was for an extended period and it hurt their major sport, rugby !
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Omnium said:

    @DecrepitJohnL,@Rexel56

    So on average people have been paid less. This isn't (or at least shouldn't be) in the hands of the government. If you've earned less pull your finger out and do your job sufficiently well that you will earn more. If you don't have a job where your performance matters then find one that does.

    Even if it were that easy, you may be missing several points, like its effects on the benefits bill and on the econmy as a whole, since if people buy less, then there will be fewer jobs for people who produce or sell those goods and services which are not being bought.

    And in political betting terms, voters who have seen a decline in their real wages and living standards are less likely to support the government.

    Whether or not it is their own fault for having the wrong type of job.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,823
    The open letter is just ludicrous.
    He writes for example

    "He is making scapegoats of gay people, just as Hitler did Jews."

    It takes a very kind interpretation to read this as anything other than nonsense.

    Being gay isn't entirely normal. It just isn't. We simply wouldn't be here if it was. Gay people, gay attitudes, gay whatever you like - I'm chilled. Gays wanting to style themselves as some sort of endangered national treasure: I'm less convinced.

    Stephen Fry, should you read this; You should be embarrassed at the slumlike complacency with which you indulge yourself when writing.

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Not a source I'd immediately expect

    Oatcake @oatcake
    Comic Relief invests millions in controversial tobacco, chemical and arms firms mirr.im/18mYECm via @DailyMirror

    Big Tobacco> Surely not? That's Lynton's Manor - oh...

    Charity Comic Relief is ­investing millions in ­controversial ­tobacco, pharmaceutical and arms firms, a Sunday People investigation reveals.

    Each year an army of kind-hearted Brits pledge millions to Red Nose Day or Sport Relief – and it is mostly ­invested before going to those in need.

    A probe by the Sunday People and investigative agency OpenWorld News has found Comic Relief put ­£14million into a company which invests in firms accused of unethical behaviour.

    The Invesco Perpetual High Income Fund, not named in Comic Relief’s latest publicly available accounts, has been called the UK’s top performer.

    But critics claim the charity’s seeming wish to get interest on cash clashes with its own projects in the Third World.

    A source said: “Everybody has a soft spot for Comic Relief and loves to support it. It’s done so much for so many good causes, and should rightly be praised.

    “But a ­considerable amount of money in the charity goes to places some people would be unsure about.”

    Among those invested in by Invesco are three of the world’s biggest cigarette firms – British American Tobacco, Reynolds American and Imperial Tobacco, makers of the Lambert and Butler brand.

    Check out all the latest News, Sport & Celeb gossip at Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/comic-relief-invests-millions-controversial-2149614#ixzz2bgqO9Pc8
    Follow us: @DailyMirror on Twitter | DailyMirror on Facebook
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    LAB minority is my current thinking. LD fighting a rearguard action in core seats, CON holding their own but losing the ground war (fewer and older activists) and getting their messaging wrong by going too far right, with LD waverers in CON/LAB marginals going with LAB. UKIP an irrelevance. But SNP hold their own in Scotland, Plaid in Wales (Ynys Mon probable Labour loss) and a concerted anti-Ed media campaign leaves Labour just short of their majority.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    BBC Propaganda @BBCPropaganda
    Real wages fell 8.8% between 2008 and 2012. Private sector real wages fell 10.1%. Public sector wages fell 3.5%. Who should be complaining?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,037
    Plato said:

    So from going from a boycott - now Mr Fry just wants a simple gesture. Thank heaven's he's actually realised that depriving others of their life ambitions are actually important when riding his hobby-horse over them. Still - he hasn't noticed #Russia2013 athletics that's on right now...

    " Mr Fry has come up with a new plan to protest over what he calls the "unspeakable" treatment of the gay community in Russia.

    He has called on athletes competing in the Sochi Winter Olympics in Russia to make a "simple gesture" of solidarity by crossing the their arms over their chest whilst receiving their medals.

    "[Its] just a simple gesture, they can't take that away, they're not going to chop their arms off", Mr Fry said. The British actor, who has written an open letter to Prime Minister David Cameron asking him to boycott the Winter Olympics, was speaking at Gay Pride in Glasgow..."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10236185/Stephen-Fry-asks-athletes-to-protest-at-Russian-Winter-Olympics-with-simple-gesture.html

    "It's becoming a really, really grim time to be gay in Russia"

    Compared to when it used to be like Brighton or Soho?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,823
    @DecrepitJohnL

    'Having the wrong type of job' - If you accept employment to do something that is essentially worthless then it's your own lookout surely.

    People that day-on-day do fuck-all will clearly find themselves more productive in an environment where they actually achieve something.
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    tpfkar said:

    LAB minority is my current thinking. LD fighting a rearguard action in core seats, CON holding their own but losing the ground war (fewer and older activists) and getting their messaging wrong by going too far right, with LD waverers in CON/LAB marginals going with LAB. UKIP an irrelevance. But SNP hold their own in Scotland, Plaid in Wales (Ynys Mon probable Labour loss) and a concerted anti-Ed media campaign leaves Labour just short of their majority.

    So, you foresee another Lib-Lab coalition? Or miliband minority govt?
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    Omnium said:

    The open letter is just ludicrous.
    He writes for example

    "He is making scapegoats of gay people, just as Hitler did Jews."

    It takes a very kind interpretation to read this as anything other than nonsense.

    Being gay isn't entirely normal. It just isn't. We simply wouldn't be here if it was. Gay people, gay attitudes, gay whatever you like - I'm chilled. Gays wanting to style themselves as some sort of endangered national treasure: I'm less convinced.

    Stephen Fry, should you read this; You should be embarrassed at the slumlike complacency with which you indulge yourself when writing.

    I read this embarrassing hypebole and binned it. Had quite a lengthy discussion with Hugo Rifkind [his pal] on Twitter and he said he'd read the letter again. I frankly find it pretty offensive for gays to claim they're experiencing genocide in Russia. It's absurd.

    Putin isn't rounding them up in cattle wagons and gassing them.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I voted for CON most seats, short of majority.

    You are a PBTory !

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,380
    Omnium said:


    Being gay isn't entirely normal. It just isn't.

    Jeez.
  • Options
    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807

    Rexel56 said:

    BBC this morning passing off wages data report as coming from "apolitical House of Commons library". Now admitting it's a Labour Party instigated piece of analysis.

    The Commons library is apolitical and all its research is instigated by one party or another. How else could it be?
    Then the BBC shouldn't originally have described it as being published by the HofC library and that Labour had "jumped on its findings".
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'd rather Mr Fry tackled places where it was actually illegal to be gay at all.

    Oh, but that doesn't fit his intellectually bankrupt argument about Putin and wrestling bears half dressed.

    I am really perplexed by the idee fixe on Russia of all places - because of Pussy Riot who were ostentatiously blasphemous in a church? How about all the countries in Africa or places in Britain where bigots put up anti-gay billstickers in Muslim areas?

    Oh...
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    So from going from a boycott - now Mr Fry just wants a simple gesture. Thank heaven's he's actually realised that depriving others of their life ambitions are actually important when riding his hobby-horse over them. Still - he hasn't noticed #Russia2013 athletics that's on right now...

    " Mr Fry has come up with a new plan to protest over what he calls the "unspeakable" treatment of the gay community in Russia.

    He has called on athletes competing in the Sochi Winter Olympics in Russia to make a "simple gesture" of solidarity by crossing the their arms over their chest whilst receiving their medals.

    "[Its] just a simple gesture, they can't take that away, they're not going to chop their arms off", Mr Fry said. The British actor, who has written an open letter to Prime Minister David Cameron asking him to boycott the Winter Olympics, was speaking at Gay Pride in Glasgow..."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10236185/Stephen-Fry-asks-athletes-to-protest-at-Russian-Winter-Olympics-with-simple-gesture.html

    "It's becoming a really, really grim time to be gay in Russia"

    Compared to when it used to be like Brighton or Soho?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Omnium said:


    Being gay isn't entirely normal. It just isn't.

    Jeez.
    + 1.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    If it is in the Daily Mail , the chances of the story being true is slim .

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh

    BBC Propaganda @BBCPropaganda
    Between 2000 and 2012, CPI was 33.4%, private sector wages rose 47.7% (real terms 12.6%), public sector wages rose 54.6% (real terms 21.2%)
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    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    If it is in the Daily Mail , the chances of the story being true is slim .

    Ah, so you mean it's about as likely as a LibDem majority in 2015?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
    Another day, another car pulls up alongside Ed Miliband. This one's being drive by the Guardian's John Harris. tinyurl.com/lorc8ko

    Whatever else one knocks him for = Mr Hodges was 100% spot on with his prediction of EdM's detractors pulling up along side and shooting him in the street.

    A most apt metaphor.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    2013 County Council election results which make up this constituency (rough estimate*).
    Con = 10237 (38.95%) (8/11 Councillors)
    UKIP = 6627 (25.21%) (1/11)
    LibDem = 3836 (14.60%) (1/11)
    Lab = 2863 (10.89%) (1/11)
    Ind = 2028 (7.72%)
    Green = 692 (2.63%)
    Total = 26283

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/buckingham/#comment-18413
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    From last night's thread.
    Seant "Evenin' Easterross. I'm in Arisaig, after a week on Skye, and I've been asking people, since I arrived, what they intend to vote next year. Overwhelmingly they say they're gonna vote No.

    Is this a Hebridean thing? Do you have data for the geographical spread of No and Yes independence voters? I'm curious, because you've been hinting that a Yes is very possible, yet my feeble one-man straw poll implies No by a distance.

    However perhaps the Western Isles are historically different (I expected them to be some of the most pro-independence) thanks to the religious history, or the midges, or whatever.

    Where is the Yes vote concentrated? Glasgow? The prosperous east coast?

    Genuinely curious."

    Seant, I have been pondering this too, and suspect that where there are definitely pockets of solid SNP support in the Highlands and the North East of Scotland that will show a stronger Yes vote in the Indy Ref than elsewhere. I had around 50 17-24 year olds in my garden last night for a BBQ/party, and I came across a crowd of them discussing the Indy Ref all things at one point much to my surprise. Absolutely gobsmacked at just how little support the Yes vote was garnering from that straw poll of this age group considering they were the SNP's great hope for helping swing support their way. If they are any reflection, the No vote will be even higher among this age group if they turn out to vote.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This is fun for our resident geeks - what happens on teh interweb in 60 secs

    http://onesecond.designly.com/
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    'England needs to start thinking about itself before it is too late'
    ... Forget the polls, which currently show a large majority for a no vote. It could just happen and, if it does, no one is less prepared than the English political classes, who have not begun to get their heads round the psychic and political upheaval that will follow.

    This is not just about Scotland's future, but most acutely about England's, too. And the debate will occupy so much of next year that it is bound to bring into focus the way the English are governed; the growth of English, rather than British consciousness; the future of the Westminster parliament and the gathering disillusionment with politics and the parties south of the border. But it would seem from the prime minister's comment feed last week that no one is doing the hard thinking about what this all means for England, let alone the union. What will Lesser Britain feel like?

    ... The Scots could forge a bold new future, while the English might easily turn inwards and allow the present mood of chippy isolationism, which holds Scotland, the European Union and pretty much everyone else in contempt, come to dominate. The counterbalance of Scotland in English life would be missed much more than the English appreciate, and the birth of Lesser Britain might easily prompt the rank flowering of Little England.

    ... What makes this complacency so frustrating is that whatever the result of next year's vote – full independence, maximum devolution or, even, status quo – the union will change. The loyalty to the idea of Britain and Britishness is in rapid decline, markedly so in England.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/10/scotland-independence-referendum-alex-salmond

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    Text of Speech by Chris Bryant

    “Unscrupulous employers whose only interest seems to be finding labour as cheaply as possible, will recruit workers in large numbers in low wage countries in the EU, bring them to the UK, charge the costs of their travel and their substandard accommodation against their wages and still not even meet the national minimum wage.”

    “That is unfair. It exploits migrant workers and it makes it impossible for settled workers with mortgages and a family to support at British prices to compete.”

    “Take the case of Tesco, who recently decided to move their distribution centre in Kent. The new centre is larger and employs more people, but the staff at original site, most of them British, were told that they could only move to the new centre if they took a cut in pay.”

    “The result? A large percentage of the staff at the new centre are from Eastern bloc.”

    “Look at Next PLC, who last year brought 500 Polish workers to work in their South Elmsall warehouse for their summer sale and another 300 this summer.”

    “They were recruited in Poland and charged £50 to find them accommodation. The advantage to Next? They get to avoid Agency Workers Regulations which apply after a candidate has been employed for over 12 weeks, so Polish temps end up considerably cheaper than the local workforce which includes many former Next employees.”

    Statement by Tesco

    “It is wrong to accuse Tesco of this. We work incredibly hard to recruit from the local area and have just recruited 350 local people to work in our Dagenham site.” [Sky News]

    Statement by Next

    “Mr Bryant wrongly claims that Polish workers are used to save money. This is simply not true.”

    “We are deeply disappointed Mr Bryant did not bother to check his facts with the company before releasing his speech.” [Reuters]

    Statement by Labour Party

    “We're not suggesting any law has been broken. Tesco and Next are anecdotal examples.” [Reuters]

    Anecdotal examples? Surely not.
This discussion has been closed.