Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What do you think will be the outcome of the 2015 General E

2»

Comments

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    I bracket Fry with Terry Wogan - the latter is a Tory so Fry would object strongly and threaten to leave teh interweb for the 00000000000000th time so his fans could implore him to change his mind once again.

    To be fair to Wogan he doesn't pretend to be anything more than a charming chappie made good
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    @Stuart_Dickson I wish you'd have put the link to CiF at the start of that excessively long chunk of text. It would have saved me the effort of (starting to) read it.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Janan Ganesh @JananGanesh
    It's as if Westminster is holding a Crap, Unsolicited Advice for Ed Miliband competition.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,516
    GeoffM said:

    It would have saved me the effort of (starting to) read it.

    Are you a VERY busy person, or just indolent?

  • Options

    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    If it is in the Daily Mail , the chances of the story being true is slim .

    Dear Mark
    The Daily Mail is the most popular newspaper amongst Lib Dem voters. It also seems to be the most hated newspaper by Lib Dem activists. Does this mean that Lib Dem activists hate their voters?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,097

    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    2013 County Council election results which make up this constituency (rough estimate*).
    Con = 10237 (38.95%) (8/11 Councillors)
    UKIP = 6627 (25.21%) (1/11)
    LibDem = 3836 (14.60%) (1/11)
    Lab = 2863 (10.89%) (1/11)
    Ind = 2028 (7.72%)
    Green = 692 (2.63%)
    Total = 26283

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/buckingham/#comment-18413
    A Con/UKIP marginal, interesting ;)

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2013
    I find it very odd that the Mail is somehow more misleading than say The Guardian in its coverage.

    Perhaps some LDs don't read the Mail after all and wrap themselves in old copies of the Guardian in solidarity with park bench dwellers. IME its copies of the Guardian that are left unloved on train tables as other passengers prefer the Mail, DT, Standard, Times in preference...

    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    If it is in the Daily Mail , the chances of the story being true is slim .

    Dear Mark
    The Daily Mail is the most popular newspaper amongst Lib Dem voters. It also seems to be the most hated newspaper by Lib Dem activists. Does this mean that Lib Dem activists hate their voters?
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Are you a VERY busy person, or just indolent?

    Well spotted; my apathy levels are indeed currently set at "fainéant"

    I'm just glad that I spotted "psychic upheaval" early on in the article. That was my hint to down tools.



  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    A novel idea - vote for Indy with the Queen - then vote again afterwards?

    Harry Smith @stvharry
    Scots 'should have vote on Queen' after Yes vote says SNP minister bit.ly/1665fU2
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    Not a source I'd immediately expect

    Oatcake @oatcake
    Comic Relief invests millions in controversial tobacco, chemical and arms firms mirr.im/18mYECm via @DailyMirror

    Investment committees of charities have a very difficult path to tread. The Charity Commission is very unkeen on any restrictions on investment mandates which negatively impact performance - arguably the trustees would be personally liable to make up the difference unless they came up with a very good reason for the exclusion.

    As an example, the investment committee I am on (for a public health charity) excludes tobacco - as it would be directly opposed to our mission - but, despite objections from some of our stakeholders, decided to allow investment in arms companies.
  • Options
    Plato said:

    I find it very odd that the Mail is somehow more misleading than say The Guardian in its coverage.

    Perhaps some LDs don't read the Mail after all and wrap themselves in old copies of the Guardian in solidarity with park bench dwellers. IME its copies of the Guardian that are left unloved on train tables as other passengers prefer the Mail, DT, Standard, Times in preference...

    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    If it is in the Daily Mail , the chances of the story being true is slim .

    Dear Mark
    The Daily Mail is the most popular newspaper amongst Lib Dem voters. It also seems to be the most hated newspaper by Lib Dem activists. Does this mean that Lib Dem activists hate their voters?
    Clearly with the Guardian's circulation down to 191,000, few copies are bought by Lib Dems. After all the BBC probably place the biggest order.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    If it is in the Daily Mail , the chances of the story being true is slim .

    Dear Mark
    The Daily Mail is the most popular newspaper amongst Lib Dem voters. It also seems to be the most hated newspaper by Lib Dem activists. Does this mean that Lib Dem activists hate their voters?
    Or that Lib Dem activists hate themselves? ;-)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,097
    AveryLP said:



    “We're not suggesting any law has been broken. Tesco and Next are anecdotal examples.” [Reuters]

    Anecdotal examples? Surely not.

    Is that like a PB Tory anecdote? ;-)

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RobD said:

    AveryLP said:



    “We're not suggesting any law has been broken. Tesco and Next are anecdotal examples.” [Reuters]

    Anecdotal examples? Surely not.

    Is that like a PB Tory anecdote? ;-)

    I was wondering the same.

    But where is PB's judge of such matters?

  • Options
    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650

    Plato said:

    I find it very odd that the Mail is somehow more misleading than say The Guardian in its coverage.

    Perhaps some LDs don't read the Mail after all and wrap themselves in old copies of the Guardian in solidarity with park bench dwellers. IME its copies of the Guardian that are left unloved on train tables as other passengers prefer the Mail, DT, Standard, Times in preference...

    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    If it is in the Daily Mail , the chances of the story being true is slim .

    Dear Mark
    The Daily Mail is the most popular newspaper amongst Lib Dem voters. It also seems to be the most hated newspaper by Lib Dem activists. Does this mean that Lib Dem activists hate their voters?
    Clearly with the Guardian's circulation down to 191,000, few copies are bought by Lib Dems. After all the BBC probably place the biggest order.
    Guardian online readership=3 million

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,097
    AveryLP said:



    I was wondering the same.

    But where is PB's judge of such matters?

    O/T - but have you watched Starkey's Music and Monarchy program? I'm watching it now on iPlayer and thought it would be right up your alley.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,472
    Plato said:

    I find it very odd that the Mail is somehow more misleading than say The Guardian in its coverage.

    Perhaps some LDs don't read the Mail after all and wrap themselves in old copies of the Guardian in solidarity with park bench dwellers. IME its copies of the Guardian that are left unloved on train tables as other passengers prefer the Mail, DT, Standard, Times in preference...

    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    If it is in the Daily Mail , the chances of the story being true is slim .

    Dear Mark
    The Daily Mail is the most popular newspaper amongst Lib Dem voters. It also seems to be the most hated newspaper by Lib Dem activists. Does this mean that Lib Dem activists hate their voters?
    PB Tory Burley anecdote alert:
    The other morning I was queuing in my local Morrisons. The man in front of me was in his fifties, grey-haired, wearing trainers, jeans and white shirt, with hands that looked as though they had done manual labour. He looked like a typical Sun reader, and indeed he unloaded a copy of the Sun from his trolley.

    To my surprise, he also had a copy of the 'i'. We chatted, and I asked him why he bought the 'i'. He said he had been a Sun reader (if not purchaser) for most of his life, and the Express occasionally. However for a few months he had been buying both the Sun and the i. When asked, he said that if push came to shove and he had to choose one, it would be the i.

    This interested me for several reasons. Firstly, the i obviously appealed to a lifetime Sun reader, despite having a different political slant. Secondly, the i is a very different style of newspaper, and with less tits (if you discount the columnists)

    Make of that what you will.
  • Options
    I think Stephen Fry is mounting a leadership challenge to David Mitchell who is currently head of our smugocracy.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter
    Mark Pack ‏@markpack 1m
    Special measures invoked for the Daily Mail at Muswell Hill Library - http://twitpic.com/d7qkbd
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    RobD said:

    Well there goes his potential 20-year stint as speaker!
    If this report is true it goes a way to explain why BoJo has recently trashed the plan for HS2, which ploughs through Bucks. BoJo being opportunistic for personal reasons rather than the national interest?

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    https://twitpic.com/show/full/d7qkbd

    The Mail....

    Mark Pack @markpack
    Special measures invoked for the Daily Mail at Muswell Hill Library - twitpic.com/d7qkb
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    SMukesh said:

    Guardian online readership=3 million

    That includes me as I do the Guardian crossword most days. Doesn't make me PB Kinnock though.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. M, one would hope not.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,516
    RobD said:


    O/T - but have you watched Starkey's Music and Monarchy program? I'm watching it now on iPlayer and thought it would be right up your alley.

    Watched it last couple of Saturdays by reason of everything else being crap at that juncture. Starkey is the only man on tv to get tumescent at any reference to Britain, and reach orgasm when England is mentioned (multiply if Tudor is thrown in). Shocking that it's allowed on primetime.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    GeoffM said:

    SMukesh said:

    Guardian online readership=3 million

    That includes me as I do the Guardian crossword most days. Doesn't make me PB Kinnock though.

    Just for you - Guardian Cryptic crossword - sent to you on Twitter as I can't make it apply here.

  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,943
    edited August 2013



    PB Tory Burley anecdote alert:
    The other morning I was queuing in my local Morrisons. The man in front of me was in his fifties, grey-haired, wearing trainers, jeans and white shirt, with hands that looked as though they had done manual labour. He looked like a typical Sun reader, and indeed he unloaded a copy of the Sun from his trolley.

    To my surprise, he also had a copy of the 'i'. We chatted, and I asked him why he bought the 'i'. He said he had been a Sun reader (if not purchaser) for most of his life, and the Express occasionally. However for a few months he had been buying both the Sun and the i. When asked, he said that if push came to shove and he had to choose one, it would be the i.

    This interested me for several reasons. Firstly, the i obviously appealed to a lifetime Sun reader, despite having a different political slant. Secondly, the i is a very different style of newspaper, and with less tits (if you discount the columnists)

    Make of that what you will.

    Presumably the i does less of the celeb/reality TV stuff than the Sun, which a fifty-something wouldn't be interested in. Same reason people progress from Radio 1 to Radio 2.
  • Options
    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    GeoffM said:

    SMukesh said:

    Guardian online readership=3 million

    That includes me as I do the Guardian crossword most days. Doesn't make me PB Kinnock though.

    Same goes for me...I read the Mail website for the gossip but it`s not going to change who am voting for
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    As we're on papers, I don't buy any, but tend to read the Guardian and Mail online. Free access is the reason (the Telegraph's partially free access, 30 articles per month, makes it my third choice).
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    I think Stephen Fry is mounting a leadership challenge to David Mitchell who is currently head of our smugocracy.

    CLAPS
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Plato said:


    Just for you - Guardian Cryptic crossword - sent to you on Twitter as I can't make it apply here.

    Excellent! :)

    http://bit.ly/13QXRKg

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,097



    Watched it last couple of Saturdays by reason of everything else being crap at that juncture. Starkey is the only man on tv to get tumescent at any reference to Britain, and reach orgasm when England is mentioned (multiply if Tudor is thrown in). Shocking that it's allowed on primetime.

    Sick-bag on standby.. thanks for the warning ;-)

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RobD said:

    AveryLP said:



    I was wondering the same.

    But where is PB's judge of such matters?

    O/T - but have you watched Starkey's Music and Monarchy program? I'm watching it now on iPlayer and thought it would be right up your alley.
    I haven't and wasn't aware of its existence.

    I am now and have listened to clips on the BBC site. And now the current episode on iPlayer.

    Thanks.

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Glad you liked it - perfect visual irony!
    GeoffM said:

    Plato said:


    Just for you - Guardian Cryptic crossword - sent to you on Twitter as I can't make it apply here.

    Excellent! :)

    http://bit.ly/13QXRKg

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,097
    edited August 2013
    AveryLP said:



    I haven't and wasn't aware of its existence.

    I am now and have listened to clips on the BBC site. And now the current episode on iPlayer.

    Thanks.

    Yes, I started watching the fourth episodes and thought it was good enough to start right from the beginning. There are only four episodes in total, I think. Enjoy!
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    SMukesh said:

    GeoffM said:

    SMukesh said:

    Guardian online readership=3 million

    That includes me as I do the Guardian crossword most days. Doesn't make me PB Kinnock though.

    Same goes for me...I read the Mail website for the gossip but it`s not going to change who am voting for
    It's important to keep up to date on beachwear trends.

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Night JimBob

    Off to eat leftover pizza and ingore my itching mozzie bites.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stephen Fry has very effectively focussed attention on the neanderthal laws that Russia is introducing against gay men. If it has taken a bit of hyperbole to get that attention, so what?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I think Stephen Fry is mounting a leadership challenge to David Mitchell who is currently head of our smugocracy.



    David Mitchell on Desert Island Discs is very good

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/bigscreen/radio/episode/b00ln1b2/Desert_Island_Discs_David_Mitchell

  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Telegraph front page: Miliband urged to sack old guard - names Balls and Burnham - Burnham vulnerable over his record as Health Sec... what a surprise.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    antifrank said:

    Stephen Fry has very effectively focussed attention on the neanderthal laws that Russia is introducing against gay men. If it has taken a bit of hyperbole to get that attention, so what?

    "neanderthal" = flagrant speciesism.

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Couldn't resist - the next LD campaign?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRVcjyHCAAAmuJs.jpg:large
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,353

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    ST.. It makes them all deliriously happy..Pork, J Kelly, S Dickson, TUD. MalcolmG.. et al..
    It must be something to do with ferocious midges and kilts

    Bunch of woosies , back to your concrete jungle and fry in the sweaty morass
    As regular pb-ers know, I am a big fan of Scotland, especially the Highlands & Islands. But there's no getting round the fact the climate is depressing in a particularly relentless way. Even in the few brief nice days of summer, you have to contend with midges and clegs.

    There's a reason Scotland is sparsely populated, despite its beauty, and it ain't nasty English landlords with their Cheviot sheep.
    Sean, the geography up north , lack of facilities and ownership of huge tracts by a few foreigners mean it will always be sparsely populated and at times can be bleak but many parts of England are often as bleak and as crap. I have lived extensively in England and it is little different to Scotland apart from being a bit warmer in summer in the south . London in the heat is a hellhole and I would choose living near the sea with a breeze anytime as opposed to that, and the density of population makes if difficult to have a decent day out at weekends and holidays, so no paradise. If you were comparing to Nice , Montpellier , etc then you do have a point.
    I'm surprised to hear of your need for sea breezes , I always thought the Bavarian Alps were your spritual and geographic ideal.

    How very true, fresh air , mountains and superb beer, what more could you ask for, though Montpellier is very pleasant.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,353
    fitalass said:

    From last night's thread.
    Seant "Evenin' Easterross. I'm in Arisaig, after a week on Skye, and I've been asking people, since I arrived, what they intend to vote next year. Overwhelmingly they say they're gonna vote No.

    Is this a Hebridean thing? Do you have data for the geographical spread of No and Yes independence voters? I'm curious, because you've been hinting that a Yes is very possible, yet my feeble one-man straw poll implies No by a distance.

    However perhaps the Western Isles are historically different (I expected them to be some of the most pro-independence) thanks to the religious history, or the midges, or whatever.

    Where is the Yes vote concentrated? Glasgow? The prosperous east coast?

    Genuinely curious."

    Seant, I have been pondering this too, and suspect that where there are definitely pockets of solid SNP support in the Highlands and the North East of Scotland that will show a stronger Yes vote in the Indy Ref than elsewhere. I had around 50 17-24 year olds in my garden last night for a BBQ/party, and I came across a crowd of them discussing the Indy Ref all things at one point much to my surprise. Absolutely gobsmacked at just how little support the Yes vote was garnering from that straw poll of this age group considering they were the SNP's great hope for helping swing support their way. If they are any reflection, the No vote will be even higher among this age group if they turn out to vote.

    LOL, another Tory surge
  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    On topic: So far around 60% of PBers say they are predicting NOM, roughly evenly split Lab Most Seats and Con Most Seats. That's a little different to what the betting odds currently show, but not significantly so; more like PB being slightly ahead on the trend.

    Either way, it's hard to quarrel with the proposition that an inconclusive result is really quite likely - so why aren't the financial markets showing signs of recognising this risk?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,409
    I wouldn't normally comment on the whole 'gay' thing. But I'm waiting for an aeroplane, so thought I might waste a few bytes.

    Is it not generally acknowledged that being gay is genetic? One is no more in control of one's sexual orientation as one's skin colour.

    But how could such a genetic trait continue, if it was so self-obviously disastrous to the continuation of the gene? Well: that'll be society. If you make it unacceptable to be gay, then gay men (and women) will find themselves in marriages to people whom they do not find attractive, and will procreate.

    As a result, laws (and societal norms) against homosexuality encourage its survival. If it were acceptable, then it would soon die out.

    A great irony, I always think.

    For the record, given that one cannot choose one's sexual orientation, I find myself more in agreement with Steven Fry than Omnium.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited August 2013
    Malcolm, party politics didn't enter the discussion at all. No one seemed interested in which party every one supported, just how they would vote in the Indy Ref. I suspect the fact that they are all eligible to vote next year is what sparked the debate. :)
    malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    From last night's thread.
    Seant "Evenin' Easterross. I'm in Arisaig, after a week on Skye, and I've been asking people, since I arrived, what they intend to vote next year. Overwhelmingly they say they're gonna vote No.

    Is this a Hebridean thing? Do you have data for the geographical spread of No and Yes independence voters? I'm curious, because you've been hinting that a Yes is very possible, yet my feeble one-man straw poll implies No by a distance.

    However perhaps the Western Isles are historically different (I expected them to be some of the most pro-independence) thanks to the religious history, or the midges, or whatever.

    Where is the Yes vote concentrated? Glasgow? The prosperous east coast?

    Genuinely curious."

    Seant, I have been pondering this too, and suspect that where there are definitely pockets of solid SNP support in the Highlands and the North East of Scotland that will show a stronger Yes vote in the Indy Ref than elsewhere. I had around 50 17-24 year olds in my garden last night for a BBQ/party, and I came across a crowd of them discussing the Indy Ref all things at one point much to my surprise. Absolutely gobsmacked at just how little support the Yes vote was garnering from that straw poll of this age group considering they were the SNP's great hope for helping swing support their way. If they are any reflection, the No vote will be even higher among this age group if they turn out to vote.

    LOL, another Tory surge
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RobD said:

    AveryLP said:



    I haven't and wasn't aware of its existence.

    I am now and have listened to clips on the BBC site. And now the current episode on iPlayer.

    Thanks.

    Yes, I started watching the fourth episodes and thought it was good enough to start right from the beginning. There are only four episodes in total, I think. Enjoy!
    I have just finished the first episode. Very well done by Starkey: simple but not condescending or dumbed down.

    And fabulous music: Tallis, Byrd and Dowland are all as good as any English composer who followed.

    I don't know if Charles is around but I thought the Eton College Choir School closed in the late 1960s but it appeared from the programme that there were 'trebles' in the choir. Were they imported from Kings College, Cambridge or were they reinstated at Eton after the closure of the choir school?

    No one does late Tudor melancholy better than Dowland accompanied by viols. Here is the German countertenor, Andreas Scholl singing "Go Crystal Tears" from a fabulous album of the same name.

    A small thank you for pointing me to Starkey.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZnn_pbqohI
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,068
    On topic - Expecting a LAB majority or 4 seats or so.

    Also what are those LAB plonkers Burnham & A N Other up to ? None of the '38%' or so seems to have noticed LAB has no policies, is Burnham trying to make it headline news that LAB is an empty book ?
    Noone has really noticed (Outside of pb types) that Labour is wearing the emperor's new clothes. Burnham pointing this out to the nation might make some more people notice though...
  • Options
    tim said:

    Worth a thread

    @stefanstern: Ethnic minority voters hold key to '15 GE? http://t.co/WoHZffZY0D The Tories urgently need to hire a few vans to get their message out...oh.


    Dire news for the Toxic Party

    I already showed you a few trends tim:

    http://t.co/VIluaaHWQN
    http://t.co/rURkWBal4B
    http://t.co/T3RsRfo64i
    http://t.co/pCLnYtaY4U
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "Is it not generally acknowledged that being gay is genetic? One is no more in control of one's sexual orientation as one's skin colour."

    Not entirely clear.

    http://sciencefocus.com/feature/life/gay-genetics for example.

    Whilst the LGBT community would definitely disagree with LGBT being a "choice" (a la 'lifestyle choice'), I've never quite sure they'd be happy with it having a strong genetic component.

    Because that would make it just a bit too much like a disorder. Which is a thought they, and I, would find deeply alarming, and in no uncertain terms.

    Although it would make it also like being black, or ginger, or so.

    How do we class such things as 'ordinary' or as abnormal? Who makes that decision?

    Needs more thought.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,571
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    RobD said:


    O/T - but have you watched Starkey's Music and Monarchy program? I'm watching it now on iPlayer and thought it would be right up your alley.

    Watched it last couple of Saturdays by reason of everything else being crap at that juncture. Starkey is the only man on tv to get tumescent at any reference to Britain, and reach orgasm when England is mentioned (multiply if Tudor is thrown in). Shocking that it's allowed on primetime.
    McDivvie

    Please point me to the Scottish composers of the same period who can match Tallis, Byrd and Dowland.

    Am looking forward to being pleasantly surprised.

  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    Worth a thread

    @stefanstern: Ethnic minority voters hold key to '15 GE? http://t.co/WoHZffZY0D The Tories urgently need to hire a few vans to get their message out...oh.


    Dire news for the Toxic Party

    And, in other exciting news, I can exclusively reveal that Labour don't get much support from commuters in the South East.

    To think that the Guardian used to be a great newspaper - now reduced to devoting the bulk of its front page to a press release from a special-interest group pushing its own agenda.

    Nothing wrong with such a press release, of course - but you might have thought Guardian readers would be interested in news and balanced comment, rather than recycled press releases.

    Perhaps they are - that would explain why there are so few Guardian readers nowadays.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 48m
    Phone rings. Guy from Today. "We won't be needing you tomorrow after all. We're going with two columnists instead". Cold.

    Hopi Sen ‏@hopisen 40m
    @DPJHodges Today phoned me too. Didn't want to be cast as 'August grumbler', so said was vvv complex; they cldn't get off phone fast enough!

    Tony McNulty ‏@Tony_McNulty 9m
    @hopisen @dpjhodges Same for me but radio 5 love!
  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited August 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    Also what are those LAB plonkers Burnham & A N Other up to ? None of the '38%' or so seems to have noticed LAB has no policies, is Burnham trying to make it headline news that LAB is an empty book ?
    Noone has really noticed (Outside of pb types) that Labour is wearing the emperor's new clothes. Burnham pointing this out to the nation might make some more people notice though...

    They are quite rightly pointing out that, when the Great British Public finally gets round to taking some modicum of interest in the next election (i.e. in late 2014), that 38% is in danger of evaporating, because there is nothing to support it.

    Mind you, whilst Andy Burnham's analysis of the problem is quite right, his implied solution - Andy Burnham to be leader - is swivel-eyed loony.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Any of our Times readers able to shed a bit of light on detail of the article?

    Twitter
    Times News ‏@TimesNewsdesk 1h
    Tesco and Next say MP got his facts wrong http://thetim.es/166kNqZ
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    If things are going to change in Russia, it has to come from a completely different place.

    It is poisoned by association with post-Soviet chaos and I'm sure Western lectures will instantly evoke that, however they are put.

    So I disagree with Stephen Fry because what I want most is for the law to change.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,452
    Tongue in cheek election broadcast for the Green Party, from Australia
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtXBgiubnK8
  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited August 2013
    tim said:


    Shoooting the messenger regarding the atories toxicity among non white voters is an old tactic.

    It always looks really dumb when Lord Ashcroft is one of the messengers and he's backed up his case with polling.

    It's hardly news that ethnic minorities vote Labour, tim, but it's already in the price. I really don't think any messenger needs to be shot.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    HYUFD said:

    Tongue in cheek election broadcast for the Green Party, from Australia

    Where is Neil????

  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    Sounds like some interesting data on which marginals will be effected, I'll read it and translate it for you if you can't face the source material, you can rely on fitalass' teenager focus group in the meantime, LOL.

    Well, maybe the Guardian's Mail-like article is hiding something significant, but since their main point seems to be that 'the BME vote was bigger than the sitting MP's majority in the 2010 election in 99 seats', what they seem to be 'revealing' is already priced in to the starting position.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    rcs1000 said:

    I wouldn't normally comment on the whole 'gay' thing. But I'm waiting for an aeroplane, so thought I might waste a few bytes.

    Is it not generally acknowledged that being gay is genetic? One is no more in control of one's sexual orientation as one's skin colour.

    But how could such a genetic trait continue, if it was so self-obviously disastrous to the continuation of the gene? Well: that'll be society. If you make it unacceptable to be gay, then gay men (and women) will find themselves in marriages to people whom they do not find attractive, and will procreate.

    As a result, laws (and societal norms) against homosexuality encourage its survival. If it were acceptable, then it would soon die out.

    A great irony, I always think.

    For the record, given that one cannot choose one's sexual orientation, I find myself more in agreement with Steven Fry than Omnium.

    The most reliable predictor of male gayness is number of elder brothers -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraternal_birth_order_and_male_sexual_orientation

    Presumably this is not genetically determined.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,571
    "Norway PM Jens Stoltenberg works as secret taxi driver":
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23655675
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    "Norway PM Jens Stoltenberg works as secret taxi driver":
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23655675

    I wonder what Dave moonlights as?

    :)
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited August 2013
    @tim

    What the article doesn't appear to explain is whether ethnic minority votes are disproportionately important.

    If moving from 68-16 to 42-42 or 36-29 is more important than merely winning the x more votes that requires elsewhere.
    Operation Black Vote estimates that the BME vote was bigger than the sitting MP's majority in the 2010 election in 99 seats, but those figures are based on the 2001 census, so probably underestimate the impact.
    Very strange comparison. Surely it should be 'how many more seats would the Tories have won if they'd got a higher share'. They already win 16%, and 36% would have been the cap, so it should have been at most how many seats' majorities were smaller than 40% (being 2*(36-16)) of the BME vote. Then you need to take however x votes that is and deduct it from the total number of votes, to give the same number of votes as actually happened - just distributed differently - and make the comparison.
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548

    tpfkar said:

    LAB minority is my current thinking. LD fighting a rearguard action in core seats, CON holding their own but losing the ground war (fewer and older activists) and getting their messaging wrong by going too far right, with LD waverers in CON/LAB marginals going with LAB. UKIP an irrelevance. But SNP hold their own in Scotland, Plaid in Wales (Ynys Mon probable Labour loss) and a concerted anti-Ed media campaign leaves Labour just short of their majority.

    So, you foresee another Lib-Lab coalition? Or miliband minority govt?
    Sorry Stuart, only just seen this. I think Clegg would go for it if he could, but I'm not sure his party would back him. The obvious attraction would be the ability to drive through the things ther Tories have been blocking. But Labour would have to gt serious on the economy, and I've no more idea than anyone else what they stand for - the Lib Dems are walking all over Labour in terms of policy ideas and workable plans at the moment. Will depend how far back the Lib Dems have gone, but the deal-breaker will be whether Nick Clegg could get a deal through the triple-lock.
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I'm going to bed, but I hope it should be self-evident that, and I hope the writer at the Guardian realised that:
    The number of ethnic minority voters exceeds the sitting MP's majority in six of Birmingham's eight seats[...]
    is a truly ludicrous comparison.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Grandiose said:

    If things are going to change in Russia, it has to come from a completely different place.

    It is poisoned by association with post-Soviet chaos and I'm sure Western lectures will instantly evoke that, however they are put.

    So I disagree with Stephen Fry because what I want most is for the law to change.

    I hate to be an apologist for Russian state bigotry but social attitudes are not quite as simple in Russia as we Western Europeans perceive.

    A very large percentage of successful Russian banks and enterprises are run by Russian Jews yet the lesser Russian management, who are quite happy to take pay from their bosses and share in their enterprises success, will tell you quite openly that Russian Jews are destroying the country.

    Russians are notorious xenophobes yet they are amongst the most hospitable people on the planet and would share their last crust of bread with a stranger.

    In 1994 when every bar, club and taxi was playing "I like to move it" and every office stopped to dance to it when broadcast on the radio, I volunteered that I liked the song but thought it somewhat overplayed (only 'Macarena' and 'All that she wants' came close). The reaction was a blank, confounded stare and the question: "You do know it is sung by a blackman, don't you?".

    Russians were quite aware of these paradoxes and when challenged would just answer that it was "специфически русский" (specifically Russian) and shrug their shoulders. A sort of we know it is stupid, they know it is stupid, but it is just something we Ruissians can't explain.

    Putin likes to project himself as a true Russian "мужик" (muzhik), which even Google won't translate (as it is "специфически русский"), but Wiktionary defines as (historically) "
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,452
    Avery, indeed, must be there somewhere
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    @Grandiose

    [continued as accidentally posted too early]

    Putin likes to project himself as a true Russian "мужик" (muzhik), which even Google won't translate (as it is "специфически русский"!), but Wiktionary defines as (historically) "a serf from Tsarist Russia" but having contemporary meaning of "boor; coarse, uncouth person; macho". It is an electoral ploy as a vast majority of Russians self-identify as muzhiki.

    The whole "Section 28" issue in Russia is a symptom of more open debate and politicisation of these social issues. OK it is a step back, but it will be followed by two steps forward.

    Remember, Russian is a nation where Marxism-Leninism has been taught in schools for seventy years. If Russians never believed in Marx's tenets they won't be affected by a ban on teaching homosexuality in schools.

    "The laws in Russia are very harsh, but the compensating factor is that we don't need to obey them".
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,164
    Plato said:

    Oh

    BBC Propaganda @BBCPropaganda
    Between 2000 and 2012, CPI was 33.4%, private sector wages rose 47.7% (real terms 12.6%), public sector wages rose 54.6% (real terms 21.2%)

    Careful, those numbers may not mean what you expect. For example, if you contract out a load of public-sector donkey-work, you move low-paid jobs to the private sector and raise the public-sector average.
This discussion has been closed.