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Comments
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Er Pulps...Pulpstar said:
Rubio +1.1Alistair said:I backed Rubio at 4.7 on the 10th because I thuoght a vaguely not rubbish showing in SC would cause his price to plunge and I would go back to laying him then (or Jeb Bush withdrawing would make eeryone assume Rubio was getting his votes and so caused his price to plunge) but it's already dropped to 3.8 to lay.
Lock in the profit on the field or gamble on it going lower for a bigger reward?
Trump +532.09
Cruz +697.86
Bush -999.31
That's what I'm doing right now. (I've made a few trading errors this cycle but haven't we all)
Level Rubio off imo. He is too short - but he goes shorter is Bush ends his campaign after South Carolina.
Rubio -10
Trump +476
Cruz +642
Bush -938
Lol.0 -
Is part of a pattern with Boris. He's popular and it is good for Leave, I'm just relaying the message.SeanT said:
That is total bollocks, as you know, and I'm amazed you repost it. Boris is the one politician with proven cross-party appeal. He won leftwing London, FFS. There is a reason every reliable journalist says BoJo is the one politician REMAIN really fear, it is because it is true. He is a wild card. He could go down great, he might fail, but there's no doubt he has the charisma to change things.TheScreamingEagles said:
This evening I spoke to someone who works for Remain.SeanT said:
I cannot believe BoJo is leaning to GoGo. If he is, I award him *chapeau*TheScreamingEagles said:Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.
Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/
It's brave and right (and good for his career). But it's also brave and right. The LEAVE campaign needs a figurehead to present their argument coherently. It's good for democracy.
They want Boris to lead Leave.
They will be reminding everyone of this. I'm sure this will go down well with the WWC
Boris Johnson backs call for one-off amnesty for illegal immigrants
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10154389/Boris-Johnson-backs-call-for-one-off-amnesty-for-illegal-immigrants.html
Don't go all Nabavi & Meeks, post serious stuff. Ta.0 -
OK, that's fair.nigel4england said:
Don't necessarily agree on Gove, think he is a good man. Anyone willing to take on the education establishment is fine with me.rcs1000 said:
Alternatively, if they are on Leave, is her best chance to be the sceptical Remain-er, if that's going to win...MarqueeMark said:
Can May allow them to both clambered the Leave boat - and watch it sail away without her being onboard too? Will make for a fun weekend....TheScreamingEagles said:Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.
Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/
I'm convinced that May, Gove and Johnson all care solely about their careers, and think very little about what is actually best for the country.
But I do genuinely think that each of them - and Pritti Patel and Fox and others - have their eyes fixed firmly on the door to number ten, and that everything they do re EuroRef is motivated by attempts to climb rise up the greasy pole, and not by moral imperative.0 -
Boris could help leave's campaign but on the other hand he could be an unmitigated disaster. Can anyone really say they know himMarqueeMark said:
But Boris defuses the Little Englander charge that Remain likes to bandy about.Luckyguy1983 said:
Boris is dangerous. As likely to blow up in Leave's face as to help it imo. I would welcome his support for Leave with extreme caution.SeanT said:Go on, Boris
Make it a proper contest.0 -
ArfTheWhiteRabbit said:
Er Pulps...Pulpstar said:
Rubio +1.1Alistair said:I backed Rubio at 4.7 on the 10th because I thuoght a vaguely not rubbish showing in SC would cause his price to plunge and I would go back to laying him then (or Jeb Bush withdrawing would make eeryone assume Rubio was getting his votes and so caused his price to plunge) but it's already dropped to 3.8 to lay.
Lock in the profit on the field or gamble on it going lower for a bigger reward?
Trump +532.09
Cruz +697.86
Bush -999.31
That's what I'm doing right now. (I've made a few trading errors this cycle but haven't we all)
Level Rubio off imo. He is too short - but he goes shorter is Bush ends his campaign after South Carolina.
Rubio -10
Trump +476
Cruz +642
Bush -938
Lol.
Are we channeling the same clairvoyent
?
POTUS:
Clinton/Sanders/Field -499.71
Rubio +652.03
Biden +16.68
Trump +1253.88
Cruz +1009.16
Bush -552.49
Kasich +461.010 -
That's the thing, isn't it. They burnish their credentials for the leadership contest by appearing to prevaricate now.Casino_Royale said:
But at the last minute will fortutiously regain their balance, and walk reluctantly away from the exit.TheScreamingEagles said:Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.
Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/
I'll believe it when I see it. Although I do think Osborne will plan for at least one "seeded" Leaver, who can come out for his leadership later on, thereby "uniting" the party.
I admire Peter Bone and Anna Soubry more. At least you know where they genuinely stand.0 -
The debt will take an eternity to pay back. The deficit is being cut, govt spending is being cut. The screams about it resonate every day. The deficit and vast spending was an inheritance from Gordon Brown.foxinsoxuk said:
When you look at the budget deficits across the OECD we are amongst the least fiscally dry. That is a large part of why we are creating jobs and "growth":Casino_Royale said:
I've gone off tax breaks and corporation tax cuts for the biggest international companies over the last few years. I suppose someone could argue that makes me less fiscally dry, but I'm not sure Thatcher would see it that way: she always had her eye out for the aspirational lower middle class.Sean_F said:
The Republican Establishment would go the mattresses to champion tax cuts for the richest 1%, while being quite content to amnesty illegal immigrants, if they could. That's about the opposite of what blue collar whites want.SeanT said:
etcHYUFD said:
I think George W Bush represented white conservatives did he not, regardless of the success of his presidency!SeanT said:
Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman.Sean_F said:I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).
Unless somebody can truly convince me cutting corporation tax from 20% to 18% is going to make a material difference to all of us, which is Osborne's policy, I'd prefer to use the cash to cut the tax burden on the average working Joe.
Oh, and I would willingly sacrifice money, in terms of house value and tax, in order to ensure lower immigration too.
Suspect I am in a minority though. I think most people would prioritise personal wealth over other issues.
https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/public-deficit-percentage-gdp
We are pursuing an expansionary policy while Europe has tightened up significantly. Debt must eventually be paid back. The migration of EU workers is acting as a safety valve to both us and the EU. Against worsening social unrest there and against inflationary pressures here.
One other point: those 1 in 9 workers on foreign passports work alongside British workers, there is a counterbalancing friendship and fellow feeling with other workers to any rivalry or resentment. The WWC is neither as monolithic nor uniformly hostile as some pb kippers would have it.0 -
If Boris supports Leave I'll be hard pressed to take it seriously. More of an attempt to differentiate himself from Dave.0
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Petronella Wyatt?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boris could help leave's campaign but on the other hand he could be an unmitigated disaster. Can anyone really say they know himMarqueeMark said:
But Boris defuses the Little Englander charge that Remain likes to bandy about.Luckyguy1983 said:
Boris is dangerous. As likely to blow up in Leave's face as to help it imo. I would welcome his support for Leave with extreme caution.SeanT said:Go on, Boris
Make it a proper contest.0 -
Don't think David Cameron will shed a tear at that newsScott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
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Very interesting. Does this say something about the sainted Lord A and his coffers? That would be good news for Leave, strategically as well as financially.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
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I don't begrudge the Government for creating jobs; I'm just unconvinced further cuts in corporation tax will add to the sum of human happiness. Our current rate is already very competitive. I would prioritise other measures.foxinsoxuk said:
WCasino_Royale said:
I.Sean_F said:
T.SeanT said:
Fair point, but I think Bush was more of an Establishment dynast, and blue collar whites see Trump as more their man.HYUFD said:
I think George W Bush represented white conservatives did he not, regardless of the success of his presidency!SeanT said:
Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman.Sean_F said:I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).
But I could be talking total fecking bollocks. I'm slightly drunk (just had my steak), and palpably chillaxing after sending off the final draft of THE FIRE CHILD.
da da da
etc
My broader point is just to highlight just how much of a pressure-value the EU is to the UK: it is a sign of our fundamental incompatibility in an economic and political union where we are not on the same journey, which will only grow worse over time.
You may think that's mutually good for both the EU and ourselves; it may be good for them, but I'm not at all convinced its good for us. I think the balance of public opinion is very far from your PoV.
Your final point is a straw man. It demonstrates the prejudice at the heart of any earnest well-to-do middle-class Remainer like yourself who believes opposition to mass immigration is purely driven by xenophobia and hostility.
Which just shows how totally out of touch you are.0 -
Tory gainScott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
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It certainly looks as though Trump will grind out enough delegates whilst the remaining clowns are still chucking pies at each other.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.0 -
Does that mean he'll stop being on the telly?Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
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Anyone see the party political broadcast for Labour? They start off with the economy failing and they've managed to shoo in a family which has a nurse and a bloke on a zero hours contract. And then they bleat on about a "real living wage". The dark tones, the woman who works thirty hours, and the most dramatic way sighs she cant work for more. They then have a pop that she cant afford the solicitors fees never mind the 5% help to buy.
Apparently David Cameron doesnt care. Somebody who is an MP somewhere said so, while sounding like a primary school pupil reading at a nativity play.
Utter drivel. How do they think this is going to gain support for them?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b071c9xl/party-political-broadcasts-labour-party-170220160 -
From where I'm sitting one of us has spent all day spewing out half-formed nonsense about the referendum all day on the site and it's not me.SeanT said:
That is total bollocks, as you know, and I'm amazed you repost it. Boris is the one politician with proven cross-party appeal. He won leftwing London, FFS. There is a reason every reliable journalist says BoJo is the one politician REMAIN really fear, it is because it is true. He is a wild card. He could go down great, he might fail, but there's no doubt he has the charisma to change things.TheScreamingEagles said:
This evening I spoke to someone who works for Remain.SeanT said:
I cannot believe BoJo is leaning to GoGo. If he is, I award him *chapeau*TheScreamingEagles said:Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.
Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/
It's brave and right (and good for his career). But it's also brave and right. The LEAVE campaign needs a figurehead to present their argument coherently. It's good for democracy.
They want Boris to lead Leave.
They will be reminding everyone of this. I'm sure this will go down well with the WWC
Boris Johnson backs call for one-off amnesty for illegal immigrants
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10154389/Boris-Johnson-backs-call-for-one-off-amnesty-for-illegal-immigrants.html
Don't go all Nabavi & Meeks, post serious stuff. Ta.
Boris Johnson would be an undoubted coup for Leave, but Leave really need a solid sensible big beast and Boris Johnson isn't that. They're already fully stocked on wild cards. Theresa May would be the big prize.0 -
TSE might be pleased at losing Montie, but I really don't want this.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
Splitting or haemorrhaging of the Conservative Party is not good news.
I really really don't want this.0 -
Boris and Gove backing Leave?0
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I saw it too. Thought it was quite ironic when unemployment is down again. A distinct lack of solutions being offerednotme said:Anyone see the party political broadcast for Labour? They start off with the economy failing and they've managed to shoo in a family which has a nurse and a bloke on a zero hours contract. And then they bleat on about a "real living wage". The dark tones, the woman who works thirty hours, and the most dramatic way sighs she cant work for more. They then have a pop that she cant afford the solicitors fees never mind the 5% help to buy.
Apparently David Cameron doesnt care. Somebody who is an MP somewhere said so, while sounding like a primary school pupil reading at a nativity play.
Utter drivel. How do they think this is going to gain support for them?0 -
Can't really remember Montie being right on much. Basically it's been a tantrum brewing for a long time, and the EU referendums was his chance to attempt to inflict some damage.Casino_Royale said:
TSE might be pleased at losing Montie, but I really don't want this.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
Splitting or haemorrhaging of the Conservative Party is not good news.
I really really don't want this.
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Tim Montgomerie has resigned his membership of the Tory Party, to UKIP?
https://twitter.com/montie/status/7000737822374993920 -
Some chap on twitter after I tweeted the Montie story
never did quite get over Cameron's victory, did he?0 -
The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.0
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Mr sour grapes incarnate. He has spent years trying to undermine the party and having failed he now leaves it in typical self serving fashion.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
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White House Down on ITV2
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British politics is in an unprecedented state of flux.0
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Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sandersrcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.0 -
I agree.rcs1000 said:
That's the thing, isn't it. They burnish their credentials for the leadership contest by appearing to prevaricate now.Casino_Royale said:
But at the last minute will fortutiously regain their balance, and walk reluctantly away from the exit.TheScreamingEagles said:Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.
Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/
I'll believe it when I see it. Although I do think Osborne will plan for at least one "seeded" Leaver, who can come out for his leadership later on, thereby "uniting" the party.
I admire Peter Bone and Anna Soubry more. At least you know where they genuinely stand.
Although I cut Gove a bit more slack because (a) he's sincere (b) he's loyal so he sort of has an excuse for (c) can't decide. And I respect him.
Boris is a pure opportunist.0 -
I'd be more sorry if he hadn't been such an utter dick around the election in 2015.Casino_Royale said:
TSE might be pleased at losing Montie, but I really don't want this.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
Splitting or haemorrhaging of the Conservative Party is not good news.
I really really don't want this.0 -
Are Dan Hodges and Tim Montgomerie going to form their own political party ?0
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You are getting confused with what's going on within the Labour Party!Jonathan said:British politics is in an unprecedented state of flux.
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Montgomerie is an overly emotional and attention-seeking right wing version of Polly Toynbee.Casino_Royale said:
TSE might be pleased at losing Montie, but I really don't want this.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
Splitting or haemorrhaging of the Conservative Party is not good news.
I really really don't want this.
Ms Toynbee of Brown is the saviour of the world; Brown is shite, vote Lib Dem. Lib Dems are evil, vote for the once in a lifetime Miliband..... intellectual vintage...
I get nothing interesting from either of them.
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Come on, we've had 12 hours of your emotional incontinence sprawling across the site, adding bile, witless insults and incomprehensible overreaction to no good effect. A post or two from alternative viewpoints will do no harm.SeanT said:
Just stop now, thxAlastairMeeks said:
From where I'm sitting one of us has spent all day spewing out half-formed nonsense about the referendum all day on the site and it's not me.SeanT said:
That is total bollocks, as you know, and I'm amazed you repost it. Boris is the one politician with proven cross-party appeal. He won leftwing London, FFS. There is a reason every reliable journalist says BoJo is the one politician REMAIN really fear, it is because it is true. He is a wild card. He could go down great, he might fail, but there's no doubt he has the charisma to change things.TheScreamingEagles said:
This evening I spoke to someone who works for Remain.SeanT said:
I cannot believe BoJo is leaning to GoGo. If he is, I award him *chapeau*TheScreamingEagles said:Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.
Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/
It's brave and right (and good for his career). But it's also brave and right. The LEAVE campaign needs a figurehead to present their argument coherently. It's good for democracy.
They want Boris to lead Leave.
They will be reminding everyone of this. I'm sure this will go down well with the WWC
Boris Johnson backs call for one-off amnesty for illegal immigrants
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10154389/Boris-Johnson-backs-call-for-one-off-amnesty-for-illegal-immigrants.html
Don't go all Nabavi & Meeks, post serious stuff. Ta.
Boris Johnson would be an undoubted coup for Leave, but Leave really need a solid sensible big beast and Boris Johnson isn't that. They're already fully stocked on wild cards. Theresa May would be the big prize.0 -
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.0 -
Seem like both big parties now have issues.flightpath01 said:
You are getting confused with what's going on within the Labour Party!Jonathan said:British politics is in an unprecedented state of flux.
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That's a ballsy call. I'd say 75% for the nomination and 40% for Presidency at the moment.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
So anything over 3.5 on Betfair probably value for Presidency, and definite buy at over 6s!0 -
I shouldn't read AEP in the Telegraph. He annoys me too much.0
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The real Euro "Loonies" are those like YOU who want continued Brussels control over Britain.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
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Disagree strongly with the "witless" comment!AlastairMeeks said:
Come on, we've had 12 hours of your emotional incontinence sprawling across the site, adding bile, witless insults and incomprehensible overreaction to no good effect. A post or two from alternative viewpoints will do no harm.SeanT said:
Just stop now, thxAlastairMeeks said:
From where I'm sitting one of us has spent all day spewing out half-formed nonsense about the referendum all day on the site and it's not me.SeanT said:
That is total bollocks, as you know, and I'm amazed you repost it. Boris is the one politician with proven cross-party appeal. He won leftwing London, FFS. There is a reason every reliable journalist says BoJo is the one politician REMAIN really fear, it is because it is true. He is a wild card. He could go down great, he might fail, but there's no doubt he has the charisma to change things.TheScreamingEagles said:
This evening I spoke to someone who works for Remain.SeanT said:
I cannot believe BoJo is leaning to GoGo. If he is, I award him *chapeau*TheScreamingEagles said:Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.
Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/
It's brave and right (and good for his career). But it's also brave and right. The LEAVE campaign needs a figurehead to present their argument coherently. It's good for democracy.
They want Boris to lead Leave.
They will be reminding everyone of this. I'm sure this will go down well with the WWC
Boris Johnson backs call for one-off amnesty for illegal immigrants
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10154389/Boris-Johnson-backs-call-for-one-off-amnesty-for-illegal-immigrants.html
Don't go all Nabavi & Meeks, post serious stuff. Ta.
Boris Johnson would be an undoubted coup for Leave, but Leave really need a solid sensible big beast and Boris Johnson isn't that. They're already fully stocked on wild cards. Theresa May would be the big prize.0 -
Unusually I agree with Alastair. Johnson is big wildcard for Leave campaign. He is sort of person that could say something that undermines key messaging strategy on a whim. Equally he would use up all the oxygen and stop more harder working junior ministers getting coverage (Villiers? Patel?)
May would be massive coup, but looks like she's letting it slip through her fingers.0 -
Not so much volte face as save face.Razedabode said:
Can't really remember Montie being right on much. Basically it's been a tantrum brewing for a long time, and the EU referendums was his chance to attempt to inflict some damage.Casino_Royale said:
TSE might be pleased at losing Montie, but I really don't want this.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
Splitting or haemorrhaging of the Conservative Party is not good news.
I really really don't want this.0 -
Agreed.rcs1000 said:
That's the thing, isn't it. They burnish their credentials for the leadership contest by appearing to prevaricate now.Casino_Royale said:
But at the last minute will fortutiously regain their balance, and walk reluctantly away from the exit.TheScreamingEagles said:Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.
Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/
I'll believe it when I see it. Although I do think Osborne will plan for at least one "seeded" Leaver, who can come out for his leadership later on, thereby "uniting" the party.
I admire Peter Bone and Anna Soubry more. At least you know where they genuinely stand.
I know what you mean, but that wing of the party should not be lost.rcs1000 said:
I'd be more sorry if he hadn't been such an utter dick around the election in 2015.Casino_Royale said:
TSE might be pleased at losing Montie, but I really don't want this.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
Splitting or haemorrhaging of the Conservative Party is not good news.
I really really don't want this.
Also, I think he has a point about traditional Tory activists.0 -
@MrHarryCole: Oliver Letwin - he of 'bombproofing' NHS reforms and Royal Charter over pizza in Miliband's office - is charge of new sovereignty law. Hmm0
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pb.com indulging in more needling than a Women's Institute quilting bee.....0
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Also agree with Tim Montgomery. Lots of voters are like me and voting Tory because alternatives are all useless. If there was a serious pro-business patriotic centre-left alternative, Cameron would be left for dust.0
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Cruz can't win because (a) he only enthuses the religious right, and (b) the establishment would prefer Trump in preference. He'll won't even get all the states Santorum or Huckabee did. (He'll lose Nevada for example.)Casino_Royale said:
That's a ballsy call. I'd say 75% for the nomination and 40% for Presidency at the moment.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
So anything over 3.5 on Betfair probably value for Presidency, and definite buy at over 6s!
Rubio can't win because of "that debate".
Bush is a Bush. Kasich is disorganised, too late, and too left wing. Carson doesn't have a hope.
80-85% seems about right to me.
Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover.
Versus Clinton, I'd make him narrow favourite.0 -
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.0 -
Lots of people are coming to the same place, in the end.Casino_Royale said:
TSE might be pleased at losing Montie, but I really don't want this.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
Splitting or haemorrhaging of the Conservative Party is not good news.
I really really don't want this.
There must be more former, than current, members of the Conservative Party.0 -
No but people like Montie in specific are loonies.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.0 -
That's an outrageous slur. Chris_A wants Strasbourg to be in charge, not Brussels.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The real Euro "Loonies" are those like YOU who want continued Brussels control over Britain.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
0 -
We should be tolerant to the Euro loonies: they can't get over the fact that the UK will never join the euro, or be at the heart of Europe, but that's no reason to force them to leave.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
0 -
60% of Americans have unfavourable view of Trump. Especially Hispanics, who he needs some of to win Florida.rcs1000 said:
Cruz can't win because (a) he only enthuses the religious right, and (b) the establishment would prefer Trump in preference. He'll won't even get all the states Santorum or Huckabee did. (He'll lose Nevada for example.)Casino_Royale said:
That's a ballsy call. I'd say 75% for the nomination and 40% for Presidency at the moment.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
So anything over 3.5 on Betfair probably value for Presidency, and definite buy at over 6s!
Rubio can't win because of "that debate".
Bush is a Bush. Kasich is disorganised, too late, and too left wing. Carson doesn't have a hope.
80-85% seems about right to me.
Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover.
Versus Clinton, I'd make him narrow favourite.0 -
Only in the minds of the Euro loonies does Brussels control Britain. We have a stake in what goes on and it's up to us to use our influence or not.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The real Euro "Loonies" are those like YOU who want continued Brussels control over Britain.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
It's akin to joining a gold club and then accusing them of controlling you if you don't get your own way against the rest of the members.0 -
@davieclegg: New #sp16 poll: Labour still lagging way behind SNP despite penny on tax policy winning public support https://t.co/kcHMQubW4u0
-
If you read my comment *really* closely, you'll see the sixth word was '2015'.SeanT said:
Dan Hodges predicted the indyref would be a runaway win for NO, then went oddly quiet right at the end, then posted a sullen column saying So what, Labour under Miliband are blah blahrcs1000 said:
Dan Hodges was right in 2015.Pulpstar said:Are Dan Hodges and Tim Montgomerie going to form their own political party ?
Tim Montgomerie was right in his dreams.
That means last year. As in, the year before this. As in, the year in which the Scottish independence referendum was not. Dan Hodges was precisely the only Labourite to realise how useless Ed Milliband was.0 -
It's of no interest to you, perhaps, but you shouldn't project your views onto others.Chris_A said:
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.0 -
Are the electorate interested in immigration?Chris_A said:
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.0 -
Its not life or death but it does make a big difference to politics. Scottish nationalists did not give up when they lost a referendum so no reason eurosceptics should. Esp as Eurozone bloc voting likely to prove worst fears right in coming years.Chris_A said:
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.0 -
It isn't because of his views that I think Montie's an idiotic drama queen, who has as much political nous in his entire body, as Sir Lynton Crosby has in one of his bogies.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/678877529562853376?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Usually people are very keen on taxes that other people pay....Scott_P said:@davieclegg: New #sp16 poll: Labour still lagging way behind SNP despite penny on tax policy winning public support https://t.co/kcHMQubW4u
0 -
Well, I hope you're right: I'm more exposed on Bush and Rubio than a nudist convention at the South Pole.rcs1000 said:
Cruz can't win because (a) he only enthuses the religious right, and (b) the establishment would prefer Trump in preference. He'll won't even get all the states Santorum or Huckabee did. (He'll lose Nevada for example.)Casino_Royale said:
That's a ballsy call. I'd say 75% for the nomination and 40% for Presidency at the moment.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
So anything over 3.5 on Betfair probably value for Presidency, and definite buy at over 6s!
Rubio can't win because of "that debate".
Bush is a Bush. Kasich is disorganised, too late, and too left wing. Carson doesn't have a hope.
80-85% seems about right to me.
Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover.
Versus Clinton, I'd make him narrow favourite.
And with that thought, I bid you goodnight.0 -
-
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.HYUFD said:
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sandersrcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.
0 -
Did he think they'd get two seats?NorfolkTilIDie said:0 -
He was 100% right if you ignore the things he called completely wrongNorfolkTilIDie said:0 -
That sounds like a right prediction still. No won by nearly 400k votes, they got 25% more votes than Yes got.SeanT said:
Dan Hodges predicted the indyref would be a runaway win for NO, then went oddly quiet right at the end, then posted a sullen column saying So what, Labour under Miliband are blah blahrcs1000 said:
Dan Hodges was right in 2015.Pulpstar said:Are Dan Hodges and Tim Montgomerie going to form their own political party ?
Tim Montgomerie was right in his dreams.
The referendum was simply not that close.0 -
Whoever stands up for leave, where are they going to say they want to go to?NorfolkTilIDie said:Unusually I agree with Alastair. Johnson is big wildcard for Leave campaign. He is sort of person that could say something that undermines key messaging strategy on a whim. Equally he would use up all the oxygen and stop more harder working junior ministers getting coverage (Villiers? Patel?)
May would be massive coup, but looks like she's letting it slip through her fingers.
The EEA?
Then broadly there is no real difference.
What are they going to suggest?0 -
They're not being forced to leave - they are acting like the archetypal 3 year old who doesn't get his own way and flounces off in a tantrum.Casino_Royale said:
We should be tolerant to the Euro loonies: they can't get over the fact that the UK will never join the euro, or be at the heart of Europe, but that's no reason to force them to leave.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
0 -
Not necessarily untrue. Daves heart may not have been in it. Might explain what's going on right now.TheScreamingEagles said:It isn't because of his views that I think Montie's an idiotic drama queen, who has as much political nous in his entire body, as Sir Lynton Crosby has in one of his bogies.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/678877529562853376?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Funny how No-One Cares About The EU™ is almost exclusively used by Remainers.SeanT said:
Genius.Chris_A said:
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.
Almost as if they don't want anyone talking about the subject.0 -
My modest sums currently arePulpstar said:
Rubio +1.1Alistair said:I backed Rubio at 4.7 on the 10th because I thuoght a vaguely not rubbish showing in SC would cause his price to plunge and I would go back to laying him then (or Jeb Bush withdrawing would make eeryone assume Rubio was getting his votes and so caused his price to plunge) but it's already dropped to 3.8 to lay.
Lock in the profit on the field or gamble on it going lower for a bigger reward?
Trump +532.09
Cruz +697.86
Bush -999.31
That's what I'm doing right now. (I've made a few trading errors this cycle but haven't we all)
Level Rubio off imo. He is too short - but he goes shorter is Bush ends his campaign after South Carolina.
Donald Trump
£83.14
Marco Rubio
-£43.44
Ted Cruz
£18.83
Jeb Bush
£1.23
John Kasich
£85.59
The Field
-£13.91
I made some severe trading errors due to lack of sleep.0 -
WHO GOVERNS BRITAIN?Chris_A said:
Only in the minds of the Euro loonies does Brussels control Britain. We have a stake in what goes on and it's up to us to use our influence or not.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The real Euro "Loonies" are those like YOU who want continued Brussels control over Britain.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
It's akin to joining a gold club and then accusing them of controlling you if you don't get your own way against the rest of the members.
If we vote LEAVE, we can at least govern ourselves
If we vote REMAIN, we remain a part of theBorgEU Collective.0 -
Two weeks ago I was big on Rubio. I topped up on him post Iowa. I saw him winning New Hampshire and strolling to the nomination and the Presidency.Casino_Royale said:
Well, I hope you're right: I'm more exposed on Bush and Rubio than a nudist convention at the South Pole.rcs1000 said:
Cruz can't win because (a) he only enthuses the religious right, and (b) the establishment would prefer Trump in preference. He'll won't even get all the states Santorum or Huckabee did. (He'll lose Nevada for example.)Casino_Royale said:
That's a ballsy call. I'd say 75% for the nomination and 40% for Presidency at the moment.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
So anything over 3.5 on Betfair probably value for Presidency, and definite buy at over 6s!
Rubio can't win because of "that debate".
Bush is a Bush. Kasich is disorganised, too late, and too left wing. Carson doesn't have a hope.
80-85% seems about right to me.
Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover.
Versus Clinton, I'd make him narrow favourite.
And with that thought, I bid you goodnight.
Then, lying in bed, I started to watch the Republican debate. It was a car crash. I've never seen anything like it. Rubio was not just bad, he was off the wall awful. An empty suit reciting a soundbite. He cannot ever be taken seriously again.
I sold every inch of my position.0 -
rcs1000 said:
Cruz can't win because (a) he only enthuses the religious right, and (b) the establishment would prefer Trump in preference. He'll won't even get all the states Santorum or Huckabee did. (He'll lose Nevada for example.)Casino_Royale said:
That's a ballsy call. I'd say 75% for the nomination and 40% for Presidency at the moment.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
So anything over 3.5 on Betfair probably value for Presidency, and definite buy at over 6s!
Rubio can't win because of "that debate".
Bush is a Bush. Kasich is disorganised, too late, and too left wing. Carson doesn't have a hope.
80-85% seems about right to me.
Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover.
Versus Clinton, I'd make him narrow favourite.
'Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover'???? PPP today has Trump losing North Carolina to Sanders, Romney beat Obama in North Carolina!0 -
A club that costs £10 billion a year to join?Chris_A said:
Only in the minds of the Euro loonies does Brussels control Britain. We have a stake in what goes on and it's up to us to use our influence or not.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The real Euro "Loonies" are those like YOU who want continued Brussels control over Britain.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
It's akin to joining a gold club and then accusing them of controlling you if you don't get your own way against the rest of the members.0 -
Merkel's party's average share drops below 35% with polls conducted during the last 6 weeks.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/6999890245435351040 -
PPP is wrong.HYUFD said:rcs1000 said:
Cruz can't win because (a) he only enthuses the religious right, and (b) the establishment would prefer Trump in preference. He'll won't even get all the states Santorum or Huckabee did. (He'll lose Nevada for example.)Casino_Royale said:
That's a ballsy call. I'd say 75% for the nomination and 40% for Presidency at the moment.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
So anything over 3.5 on Betfair probably value for Presidency, and definite buy at over 6s!
Rubio can't win because of "that debate".
Bush is a Bush. Kasich is disorganised, too late, and too left wing. Carson doesn't have a hope.
80-85% seems about right to me.
Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover.
Versus Clinton, I'd make him narrow favourite.
'Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover'???? PPP today has Trump losing North Carolina to Sanders, Romney beat Obama in North Carolina!0 -
He's waiting till he's won the GOP race to turn his fire on Hilary. I thought you were a Rubio-Kasich ticket man anyway ?Tim_B said:
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.HYUFD said:
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sandersrcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.0 -
Like Cameron has used our influence to bring back an amazing "deal"?Chris_A said:
Only in the minds of the Euro loonies does Brussels control Britain. We have a stake in what goes on and it's up to us to use our influence or not.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The real Euro "Loonies" are those like YOU who want continued Brussels control over Britain.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
It's akin to joining a gold club and then accusing them of controlling you if you don't get your own way against the rest of the members.
We have little influence. This will always be the case as long as we are outside of the Eurozone. As the Eurozone begins to resemble a single country any influence we do have will be eroded further.0 -
Whereas there are more former, than current, voters for the Conservative Party than any election post 1992.Sean_F said:
Lots of people are coming to the same place, in the end.Casino_Royale said:
TSE might be pleased at losing Montie, but I really don't want this.Scott_P said:@montie: Me for @TheTimes: Why, after 28 years of membership, I'm quitting Cameron's feeble Con Party https://t.co/iUsI3BT1Df https://t.co/jorJfccAXi
Splitting or haemorrhaging of the Conservative Party is not good news.
I really really don't want this.
There must be more former, than current, members of the Conservative Party.0 -
Immigration is not the EU. The Euro loons say that we'll be like Norway or Switzerland and still have all the benefits of the single market. Have you checked recently Norway or Switzerland's rights to the free movement of EU citizens? And they don't even have a say in it.nigel4england said:
Are the electorate interested in immigration?Chris_A said:
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.0 -
Problem is that's a load of old bollocks. Economic forces will prevail regardless.Sunil_Prasannan said:
WHO GOVERNS BRITAIN?Chris_A said:
Only in the minds of the Euro loonies does Brussels control Britain. We have a stake in what goes on and it's up to us to use our influence or not.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The real Euro "Loonies" are those like YOU who want continued Brussels control over Britain.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
It's akin to joining a gold club and then accusing them of controlling you if you don't get your own way against the rest of the members.
If we vote LEAVE, we can at least govern ourselves
If we vote REMAIN, we remain a part of theBorgEU Collective.0 -
You don't also post as Cromwell do you?rcs1000 said:
Two weeks ago I was big on Rubio. I topped up on him post Iowa. I saw him winning New Hampshire and strolling to the nomination and the Presidency.Casino_Royale said:
Well, I hope you're right: I'm more exposed on Bush and Rubio than a nudist convention at the South Pole.rcs1000 said:
Cruz can't win because (a) he only enthuses the religious right, and (b) the establishment would prefer Trump in preference. He'll won't even get all the states Santorum or Huckabee did. (He'll lose Nevada for example.)Casino_Royale said:
That's a ballsy call. I'd say 75% for the nomination and 40% for Presidency at the moment.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
So anything over 3.5 on Betfair probably value for Presidency, and definite buy at over 6s!
Rubio can't win because of "that debate".
Bush is a Bush. Kasich is disorganised, too late, and too left wing. Carson doesn't have a hope.
80-85% seems about right to me.
Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover.
Versus Clinton, I'd make him narrow favourite.
And with that thought, I bid you goodnight.
.0 -
I'd like to see the powerful foursome of Robert Kilroy Silk, the late Mike Dickin, Richard Desmond and Jonny Adair's wife (Mad Bitch, draped in a Union Jack) leading the OUT campaign.
They'd really broaden the appeal.0 -
Rubio or Kasich would win the general election with few problems after 8 years of Obama, Trump gives Hillary and even Sanders a fighting chanceTim_B said:
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.HYUFD said:
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sandersrcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.0 -
I'm sure Mike will post one of his helpful graphs again showing the percentage of the electorate who think Europe is a major issue. It isn't, only to Tory and UKIP obsessives.Sean_F said:
It's of no interest to you, perhaps, but you shouldn't project your views onto others.Chris_A said:
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.0 -
I agree, Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry, Nicholas Soames and Michael Heseltine really need to learn to calm down and act like grown-ups.Chris_A said:
They're not being forced to leave - they are acting like the archetypal 3 year old who doesn't get his own way and flounces off in a tantrum.Casino_Royale said:
We should be tolerant to the Euro loonies: they can't get over the fact that the UK will never join the euro, or be at the heart of Europe, but that's no reason to force them to leave.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
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Seems like a severe outlier poll, the other 2 that came today had Trump leads of 15 and 20 points, and a change of that magnitude would have been evident in the S.Carolina and Nevada polls today but Trump is leading them by an average of 18 and 26 points.
Also Cruz has never been that high up nationally:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7000795467800125440 -
I haven't actually heard anything from Ken Clarke. Is he still (a) an MP, and/or (b) still alive?Casino_Royale said:
I agree, Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry, Nicholas Soames and Michael Heseltine really need to learn to calm down and act like grown-ups.Chris_A said:
They're not being forced to leave - they are acting like the archetypal 3 year old who doesn't get his own way and flounces off in a tantrum.Casino_Royale said:
We should be tolerant to the Euro loonies: they can't get over the fact that the UK will never join the euro, or be at the heart of Europe, but that's no reason to force them to leave.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
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Lol so much ignorance.Chris_A said:
Immigration is not the EU. The Euro loons say that we'll be like Norway or Switzerland and still have all the benefits of the single market. Have you checked recently Norway or Switzerland's rights to the free movement of EU citizens? And they don't even have a say in it.nigel4england said:
Are the electorate interested in immigration?Chris_A said:
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.
See Articles 112-3 of the EEA Agreement.0 -
I have to say I am surprised it's taken you so long. You have to think Regan would be spinning in his grave.Tim_B said:
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.HYUFD said:
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sandersrcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.0 -
I still have no idea who I'm going to vote for on March 1 in the SEC Primary.HYUFD said:
Rubio or Kasich would win the general election with few problems after 8 years of Obama, Trump gives Hillary and even Sanders a fighting chanceTim_B said:
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.HYUFD said:
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sandersrcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.0 -
Well he won the last debate, Jeb is completely collapsing, Cruz is being called a liar by both Rubio and Trump (And it seems to be sticking) and Trump sounded like the reincarnation of Michael Moore at the last debate.rcs1000 said:
Two weeks ago I was big on Rubio. I topped up on him post Iowa. I saw him winning New Hampshire and strolling to the nomination and the Presidency.Casino_Royale said:
Well, I hope you're right: I'm more exposed on Bush and Rubio than a nudist convention at the South Pole.rcs1000 said:
Cruz can't win because (a) he only enthuses the religious right, and (b) the establishment would prefer Trump in preference. He'll won't even get all the states Santorum or Huckabee did. (He'll lose Nevada for example.)Casino_Royale said:
That's a ballsy call. I'd say 75% for the nomination and 40% for Presidency at the moment.rcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
So anything over 3.5 on Betfair probably value for Presidency, and definite buy at over 6s!
Rubio can't win because of "that debate".
Bush is a Bush. Kasich is disorganised, too late, and too left wing. Carson doesn't have a hope.
80-85% seems about right to me.
Versus Sanders, it's a Trump walkover.
Versus Clinton, I'd make him narrow favourite.
And with that thought, I bid you goodnight.
Then, lying in bed, I started to watch the Republican debate. It was a car crash. I've never seen anything like it. Rubio was not just bad, he was off the wall awful. An empty suit reciting a soundbite. He cannot ever be taken seriously again.
I sold every inch of my position.0 -
How will we have any say when Eurogroup decides before they even talk to us?Chris_A said:
Immigration is not the EU. The Euro loons say that we'll be like Norway or Switzerland and still have all the benefits of the single market. Have you checked recently Norway or Switzerland's rights to the free movement of EU citizens? And they don't even have a say in it.nigel4england said:
Are the electorate interested in immigration?Chris_A said:
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.nigel4england said:
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.
For record, Leave campaign spokesmen are now saying it will be bespoke deal so not Norway/Switzerland model.0 -
Cruz barely scraped 28% in evangelical Iowa.Speedy said:Seems like a severe outlier poll, the other 2 that came today had Trump leads of 15 and 20 points, and a change of that magnitude would have been evident in the S.Carolina and Nevada polls today but Trump is leading them by an average of 18 and 26 points.
Also Cruz has never been that high up nationally:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7000795467800125440 -
If you're independent, then you should vote in the DEM contest for Supreme Vermin.Tim_B said:
I still have no idea who I'm going to vote for on March 1 in the SEC Primary.HYUFD said:
Rubio or Kasich would win the general election with few problems after 8 years of Obama, Trump gives Hillary and even Sanders a fighting chanceTim_B said:
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.HYUFD said:
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sandersrcs1000 said:Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.0 -
Calm down dear, it's only Brussels. It's not the British Empire taking over India.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The real Euro "Loonies" are those like YOU who want continued Brussels control over Britain.Chris_A said:The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
We'll not become coolies.0
