politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Trump has got at least a 50% chance of winning the nomi

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

@rcs1000 Whoever the nominee is for the Presidency, Kasich looks like a great VP choice to get the big, crucial O.

Best of all, he could be the VP pick for either Hillary or one of the Republicans

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

@rcs1000 Whoever the nominee is for the Presidency, Kasich looks like a great VP choice to get the big, crucial O.

Best of all, he could be the VP pick for either Hillary or one of the Republicans

I'll donate £50 to a charity of your choice if he is Democrat VP nominee

Casino_Royale said:

That all stacks up.

His price for the Presidency is still great value.

Alanbrooke said:

voodoo poll in le figaro

2:1 they want the UK to leave.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualites/2016/02/17/01001-20160217QCMWWW00134-souhaitez-vous-que-la-grande-bretagne-reste-dans-l-union-europeenne.php

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

@rcs1000 Whoever the nominee is for the Presidency, Kasich looks like a great VP choice to get the big, crucial O.

Best of all, he could be the VP pick for either Hillary or one of the Republicans

I'll donate £50 to a charity of your choice if he is Democrat VP nominee

What about Bloomberg's VP nomination?

Hillary/Bloomberg would go down like a cup of cold sick lol.

I believe she's planning to have Bill as her VP pick

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

@rcs1000 Whoever the nominee is for the Presidency, Kasich looks like a great VP choice to get the big, crucial O.

Best of all, he could be the VP pick for either Hillary or one of the Republicans

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

@rcs1000 Whoever the nominee is for the Presidency, Kasich looks like a great VP choice to get the big, crucial O.

Best of all, he could be the VP pick for either Hillary or one of the Republicans

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

@rcs1000 Whoever the nominee is for the Presidency, Kasich looks like a great VP choice to get the big, crucial O.

Best of all, he could be the VP pick for either Hillary or one of the Republicans

I'll donate £50 to a charity of your choice if he is Democrat VP nominee

What about Bloomberg's VP nomination?

Hillary/Bloomberg would go down like a cup of cold sick lol.

I believe she's planning to have Bill as her VP pick

I thought Monica Lewinski was nailed on to be Hillary's running mate.

Hillary would find Monica as her running mate hard to swallow

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

Concession to Cameron?

'Friday 08:00: Discussions will continue over an "English Breakfast" if no agreement on the UK demands has been reached on Thursday'

His big win against the French....

NickPalmer said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

@rcs1000 Whoever the nominee is for the Presidency, Kasich looks like a great VP choice to get the big, crucial O.

Best of all, he could be the VP pick for either Hillary or one of the Republicans

He'd be an absolutely inspired VP pick for Hillary if the GOP candidate were Trump. ould help in working with Congress later, too. He's the only contender who is emerging with his reputation enhanced - he seems not to have any enemies at all, though not enough frenzied friends to win outright.

A cross-party ticket would be unprecedented, though - not sure it's conceivable.

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

@rcs1000 Whoever the nominee is for the Presidency, Kasich looks like a great VP choice to get the big, crucial O.

Best of all, he could be the VP pick for either Hillary or one of the Republicans

I'll donate £50 to a charity of your choice if he is Democrat VP nominee

What about Bloomberg's VP nomination?

Hillary/Bloomberg would go down like a cup of cold sick lol.

I believe she's planning to have Bill as her VP pick

I thought Monica Lewinski was nailed on to be Hillary's running mate.

Hillary would find Monica as her running mate hard to swallow

As a choice, I think that she will be close but no cigar!

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

PPP North Carolina

GOP

Trump 29
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Kasich 11
Carson 9
Bush 7

Dems

Clinton 52
Sanders 33

General Election

Clinton 43% Trump 44%
Clinton 40% Rubio 49%
Clinton 43% Cruz 46%
Clinton 42% Bush 44%

Sanders 44% Trump 42%
Sanders 43% Cruz 43%
Sanders 43% Bush 42%
Sanders 41% Rubio 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_21716.pdf

Toxic Hillary

Pulpstar said:

Kasich is NOT a Cameroon lol - "Moderate" in the GOP means slightly to the right of Philip Davies.

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman. The idea he is some shrill evangelical Puritan, and afraid of migrants and feminism, is daft. He's a showman and a salesman.

In office I think he'd tall Big but walk Small, on most of these issues. I also think he'd be quite a good president - better than Obama - as he'd make white conservative Americans feel better about themselves, merely for being represented - and it's time that happened - and he'd be a pretty shrewd delegator.

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman. The idea he is some shrill evangelical Puritan, and afraid of migrants and feminism, is daft. He's a showman and a salesman.

In office I think he'd tall Big but walk Small, on most of these issues. I also think he'd be quite a good president - better than Obama - as he'd make white conservative Americans feel better about themselves, merely for being represented - and it's time that happened - and he'd be a pretty shrewd delegator.

I think George W Bush represented white conservatives did he not, regardless of the success of his presidency!

Fair point, but I think Bush was more of an Establishment dynast, and blue collar whites see Trump as more their man.

But I could be talking total fecking bollocks. I'm slightly drunk (just had my steak), and palpably chillaxing after sending off the final draft of THE FIRE CHILD.

da da da

etc

Mortimer said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Incidentally, with the failure of the liberals and return of the socialists to loonyism, I'd say a socially liberal, fiscally dry but really cares about reducing immigration Tory party would get 45% of the vote at present.

SeanT said:

Nearly one in nine workers, in Britain, is now foreign

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12162120/EU-migrant-surge-has-seen-1m-come-to-Britain-in-the-past-five-years.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's a stupefying statistic. And it's this which makes the euroref impossible to call. These workers are impacting on the WWC Labour core vote most of all. But these same Labour voters have been apathetic to the point of catatonia in recent elections.

But if they come out in their droves, and protest, then Cameron will lose his referendum.

Who knows.

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

Somewhat bizzarely Ted Cruz is longer odds than Jeb Bush for the nomination.

And Bush might drop out by Sunday morning if he comes last in S.Carolina, which is a real possibility as the latest polls have him tied or 1 point higher than Carson.

My speculation about why the odds are so out of line with reality is simply a combination of people needing time to accept change and not paying attention enough to the race.

We can take all the favourites since 2012 and we will see that it took a long time for the odds to shift and come in line with the polling, in the case of Christie and Bush it took years for reality to sink in the betting markets.

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman. The idea he is some shrill evangelical Puritan, and afraid of migrants and feminism, is daft. He's a showman and a salesman.

In office I think he'd tall Big but walk Small, on most of these issues. I also think he'd be quite a good president - better than Obama - as he'd make white conservative Americans feel better about themselves, merely for being represented - and it's time that happened - and he'd be a pretty shrewd delegator.

I think George W Bush represented white conservatives did he not, regardless of the success of his presidency!

Fair point, but I think Bush was more of an Establishment dynast, and blue collar whites see Trump as more their man.

But I could be talking total fecking bollocks. I'm slightly drunk (just had my steak), and palpably chillaxing after sending off the final draft of THE FIRE CHILD.

da da da

etc

The Republican Establishment would go the mattresses to champion tax cuts for the richest 1%, while being quite content to amnesty illegal immigrants, if they could. That's about the opposite of what blue collar whites want.

SeanT said:

Nearly one in nine workers, in Britain, is now foreign

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12162120/EU-migrant-surge-has-seen-1m-come-to-Britain-in-the-past-five-years.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's a stupefying statistic. And it's this which makes the euroref impossible to call. These workers are impacting on the WWC Labour core vote most of all. But these same Labour voters have been apathetic to the point of catatonia in recent elections.

But if they come out in their droves, and protest, then Cameron will lose his referendum.

Who knows.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman. The idea he is some shrill evangelical Puritan, and afraid of migrants and feminism, is daft. He's a showman and a salesman.

In office I think he'd tall Big but walk Small, on most of these issues. I also think he'd be quite a good president - better than Obama - as he'd make white conservative Americans feel better about themselves, merely for being represented - and it's time that happened - and he'd be a pretty shrewd delegator.

I think George W Bush represented white conservatives did he not, regardless of the success of his presidency!

Fair point, but I think Bush was more of an Establishment dynast, and blue collar whites see Trump as more their man.

But I could be talking total fecking bollocks. I'm slightly drunk (just had my steak), and palpably chillaxing after sending off the final draft of THE FIRE CHILD.

da da da

etc

The Republican Establishment would go the mattresses to champion tax cuts for the richest 1%, while being quite content to amnesty illegal immigrants, if they could. That's about the opposite of what blue collar whites want.

I've gone off tax breaks and corporation tax cuts for the biggest international companies over the last few years. I suppose someone could argue that makes me less fiscally dry, but I'm not sure Thatcher would see it that way: she always had her eye out for the aspirational lower middle class.

Unless somebody can truly convince me cutting corporation tax from 20% to 18% is going to make a material difference to all of us, which is Osborne's policy, I'd prefer to use the cash to cut the tax burden on the average working Joe.

Oh, and I would willingly sacrifice money, in terms of house value and tax, in order to ensure lower immigration too.

Suspect I am in a minority though. I think most people would prioritise personal wealth over other issues.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman. The idea he is some shrill evangelical Puritan, and afraid of migrants and feminism, is daft. He's a showman and a salesman.

In office I think he'd tall Big but walk Small, on most of these issues. I also think he'd be quite a good president - better than Obama - as he'd make white conservative Americans feel better about themselves, merely for being represented - and it's time that happened - and he'd be a pretty shrewd delegator.

I think George W Bush represented white conservatives did he not, regardless of the success of his presidency!

Fair point, but I think Bush was more of an Establishment dynast, and blue collar whites see Trump as more their man.

But I could be talking total fecking bollocks. I'm slightly drunk (just had my steak), and palpably chillaxing after sending off the final draft of THE FIRE CHILD.

da da da

etc

The Republican Establishment would go the mattresses to champion tax cuts for the richest 1%, while being quite content to amnesty illegal immigrants, if they could. That's about the opposite of what blue collar whites want.

I've gone off tax breaks and corporation tax cuts for the biggest international companies over the last few years. I suppose someone could argue that makes me less fiscally dry, but I'm not sure Thatcher would see it that way: she always had her eye out for the aspirational lower middle class.

Unless somebody can truly convince me cutting corporation tax from 20% to 18% is going to make a material difference to all of us, which is Osborne's policy, I'd prefer to use the cash to cut the tax burden on the average working Joe.

Oh, and I would willingly sacrifice money, in terms of house value and tax, in order to ensure lower immigration too.

Suspect I am in a minority though. I think most people would prioritise personal wealth over other issues.

isam said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeanT said:

Nearly one in nine workers, in Britain, is now foreign

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12162120/EU-migrant-surge-has-seen-1m-come-to-Britain-in-the-past-five-years.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's a stupefying statistic. And it's this which makes the euroref impossible to call. These workers are impacting on the WWC Labour core vote most of all. But these same Labour voters have been apathetic to the point of catatonia in recent elections.

But if they come out in their droves, and protest, then Cameron will lose his referendum.

Who knows.

Unemployment figures today showed 5.1% the lowest since 2005. The Country has absorbed a lot of this immigration and really does anyone actually think how we would manage our expanding economy if we couldn't access immigration

In which scenario would we be unable to access immigration???

Big_G_NorthWales said:

isam said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeanT said:

Nearly one in nine workers, in Britain, is now foreign

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12162120/EU-migrant-surge-has-seen-1m-come-to-Britain-in-the-past-five-years.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's a stupefying statistic. And it's this which makes the euroref impossible to call. These workers are impacting on the WWC Labour core vote most of all. But these same Labour voters have been apathetic to the point of catatonia in recent elections.

But if they come out in their droves, and protest, then Cameron will lose his referendum.

Who knows.

Unemployment figures today showed 5.1% the lowest since 2005. The Country has absorbed a lot of this immigration and really does anyone actually think how we would manage our expanding economy if we couldn't access immigration

In which scenario would we be unable to access immigration???

The intention was to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands when one million seem to have been largely absorbed in the last 5 years

Big_G_NorthWales said:

isam said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeanT said:

Nearly one in nine workers, in Britain, is now foreign

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12162120/EU-migrant-surge-has-seen-1m-come-to-Britain-in-the-past-five-years.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's a stupefying statistic. And it's this which makes the euroref impossible to call. These workers are impacting on the WWC Labour core vote most of all. But these same Labour voters have been apathetic to the point of catatonia in recent elections.

But if they come out in their droves, and protest, then Cameron will lose his referendum.

Who knows.

Unemployment figures today showed 5.1% the lowest since 2005. The Country has absorbed a lot of this immigration and really does anyone actually think how we would manage our expanding economy if we couldn't access immigration

In which scenario would we be unable to access immigration???

The intention was to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands when one million seem to have been largely absorbed in the last 5 years

hunchman said:

rcs1000 said:

@hunchman

Your Finchley Road corruption story is over a year old.
I'll not hold my breath, and I'd recommend you don't either.

There was nothing about in the mainstream media when the evidence was handed to the BBC in March of last year by Gordon Bowden, and they've sat on it since because its so explosive. If you don't consume any alternative media then you simply wouldn't have heard of it. Thank goodness for the internet and the tireless work over the past 14 years of Mr Bowden.

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman. The idea he is some shrill evangelical Puritan, and afraid of migrants and feminism, is daft. He's a showman and a salesman.

In office I think he'd tall Big but walk Small, on most of these issues. I also think he'd be quite a good president - better than Obama - as he'd make white conservative Americans feel better about themselves, merely for being represented - and it's time that happened - and he'd be a pretty shrewd delegator.

I think George W Bush represented white conservatives did he not, regardless of the success of his presidency!

Fair point, but I think Bush was more of an Establishment dynast, and blue collar whites see Trump as more their man.

But I could be talking total fecking bollocks. I'm slightly drunk (just had my steak), and palpably chillaxing after sending off the final draft of THE FIRE CHILD.

da da da

etc

I agree Trump will do slightly better than Bush with bluecollar whites, especially in the NorthEast and Upper MidWest but slightly worse than Bush with wealthy white suburbans. Bush is more establishment than Trump, Phillips Academy and Yale and Harvard Business School and son of a President and grandson of a Senator to Trump's New York Military Academy, Fordham and University of Pennsylvania Business School and son of a multimillionaire property developer but not by much.

Trump also has a much higher net worth, $4.5 billion to Dubya's $35 million

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman. The idea he is some shrill evangelical Puritan, and afraid of migrants and feminism, is daft. He's a showman and a salesman.

In office I think he'd tall Big but walk Small, on most of these issues. I also think he'd be quite a good president - better than Obama - as he'd make white conservative Americans feel better about themselves, merely for being represented - and it's time that happened - and he'd be a pretty shrewd delegator.

I think George W Bush represented white conservatives did he not, regardless of the success of his presidency!

Fair point, but I think Bush was more of an Establishment dynast, and blue collar whites see Trump as more their man.

But I could be talking total fecking bollocks. I'm slightly drunk (just had my steak), and palpably chillaxing after sending off the final draft of THE FIRE CHILD.

da da da

etc

I agree Trump will do slightly better than Bush with bluecollar whites, especially in the NorthEast and Upper MidWest but slightly worse than Bush with wealthy white suburbans. Bush is more establishment than Trump, Phillips Academy and Yale and Harvard Business School and son of a President and grandson of a Senator to Trump's New York Military Academy, Fordham and University of Pennsylvania Business School and son of a multimillionaire property developer but not by much.

Trump also has a much higher net worth, $4.5 billion to Dubya's $35 million

'Dubya'?

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Nearly one in nine workers, in Britain, is now foreign

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12162120/EU-migrant-surge-has-seen-1m-come-to-Britain-in-the-past-five-years.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's a stupefying statistic. And it's this which makes the euroref impossible to call. These workers are impacting on the WWC Labour core vote most of all. But these same Labour voters have been apathetic to the point of catatonia in recent elections.

But if they come out in their droves, and protest, then Cameron will lose his referendum.

Who knows.

Mori today had Leave leading amonst C2DEs but Remain leading with ABC1s, so certainly the WWC are more likely to back BREXIT

Labour appear to have learned nothing from Scotland, and are trying their best to lose their Leave voters to UKIP by not being even handed in the debate.

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Incidentally, with the failure of the liberals and return of the socialists to loonyism, I'd say a socially liberal, fiscally dry but really cares about reducing immigration Tory party would get 45% of the vote at present.

Trump is trying to move away from his social liberalism, he has said he is pro life and will try and reverse gay marriage

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.

Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/

I cannot believe BoJo is leaning to GoGo. If he is, I award him *chapeau*

It's brave and right (and good for his career). But it's also brave and right. The LEAVE campaign needs a figurehead to present their argument coherently. It's good for democracy.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Sean_F said:

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).

Incidentally, with the failure of the liberals and return of the socialists to loonyism, I'd say a socially liberal, fiscally dry but really cares about reducing immigration Tory party would get 45% of the vote at present.

Trump is trying to move away from his social liberalism, he has said he is pro life and will try and reverse gay marriage

Gay marriage won't be reversed. Abortion is being restricted step by step in Red States, without any need to formally overturn Roe v Wade.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.

Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/

I cannot believe BoJo is leaning to GoGo. If he is, I award him *chapeau*

It's brave and right (and good for his career). But it's also brave and right. The LEAVE campaign needs a figurehead to present their argument coherently. It's good for democracy.

This evening I spoke to someone who works for Remain.

They want Boris to lead Leave.

They will be reminding everyone of this. I'm sure this will go down well with the WWC

Boris Johnson backs call for one-off amnesty for illegal immigrants

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10154389/Boris-Johnson-backs-call-for-one-off-amnesty-for-illegal-immigrants.html

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Both the mayor of London Boris Johnson and the justice secretary Michael Gove are "leaning towards the exit", two well-placed sources have told me.

Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/

Can May allow them to both clambered the Leave boat - and watch it sail away without her being onboard too? Will make for a fun weekend....

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

isam said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeanT said:

Nearly one in nine workers, in Britain, is now foreign

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12162120/EU-migrant-surge-has-seen-1m-come-to-Britain-in-the-past-five-years.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's a stupefying statistic. And it's this which makes the euroref impossible to call. These workers are impacting on the WWC Labour core vote most of all. But these same Labour voters have been apathetic to the point of catatonia in recent elections.

But if they come out in their droves, and protest, then Cameron will lose his referendum.

Who knows.

Unemployment figures today showed 5.1% the lowest since 2005. The Country has absorbed a lot of this immigration and really does anyone actually think how we would manage our expanding economy if we couldn't access immigration

In which scenario would we be unable to access immigration???

The intention was to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands when one million seem to have been largely absorbed in the last 5 years

No ifs, no buts.