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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The coming battle of the appointment of next Supreme Court

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  • Pulpstar said:

    @rcs1000 Did Antonin Scalia ever come up with a judgement through legal reasoning that he didn't like ?

    Yup. Bush v Gore. He ruled there was an Equal Protection violation.

    I think it was the only time he had ever ruled in favour of an Equal Protection violation
    Surely that was the opposite: Scalia jumped through hoops to use a device he did not like in order to reach a conclusion he very much did like: that Bush and not Gore should be president.
    Yup. My mistake.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    The whole Scalia hate thing is a bit odd. He is known as an Originalist and Textualist, or putting it more plainly to believe that the Constitution should be interpreted in accordance with what it says, and how that would have been understood at the time it was written, rather than interpreting it according to what people wish it said, and according to a more modern view of the wording.

    It does seem a bit odd for a country founded on the basis of a Constitution which is treated with the reverence that approaches religion should have so many people that dislike someone because he wants people to follow what that document says, rather than what would be convenient for them for it to say.

    Just as bizarre as the American right's hatred for the ACLU, an organisation that exists to preserve and defend the rights guaranteed by the Constitution.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,622
    AndyJS said:
    Lots more parties going to make the 5% threshold, should make things interesting
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I get an absolute guarantee that Wales will become independent if the vote is for Remain?

    It could sway my vote.

    If it's the only UK country that votes Leave, I might move there.
    Why not upsticks and go to Norway, Iceland or Switzerland?

    Or the US or Canada?

    Canada is particularly easy to emigrate to. Most of the natives speak passable English, and attempt politeness.
    I love the UK too much to emigrate.
  • Juncker added: “It’s a good thing Norway never joined. A Noexit would mean that they were leaving and not leaving simultaneously, stranding them in quantum uncertainty forever.”

    Classic MASH!
    It's brilliant.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,622
    Wanderer said:

    Vigorous defender of Cameron sitting at the table next to me at lunch.

    image
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    rcs1000 said:

    Wanderer said:

    Vigorous defender of Cameron sitting at the table next to me at lunch.

    image
    :smiley:
  • Mentioning Wales, some Assembly figures.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/699211427568054276

    Some points to note.

    1. Lib Dems flirting with extinction but would probably come out with one seat.
    2. Lab would still form the govt but would be reliant on active Plaid support; Plaid abstention = Lab defeat.
    3. (2) implies another coalition.
    4. V tight for 2nd/3rd/4th.
    5. Also v tight for whether Lab+Plaid is above 50% of votes, but AMS effects should see them comfortably above 50% of seats even on these figures.
    6. Not inconceivable that UKIP could finish second if Con continues to struggle and split re EU.

    Just how badly do Labour have to do to lose their vice-like grip on Wales?
    I can't see Labour not running Wales while:

    1. Plaid are:
    a. Not strong enough to form a government
    b. Not prepared to work with Con.

    2. Con+UKIP are sub-31 seats.

    3. LDs are more likely to back Lab over Con if push came to shove, particularly if backing Con implicitly meant backing UKIP too.
    Agreed. A seats/swing calculator would be useful.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865


    Isn’t "prisoner votes" the ECJ and nothing to do with the EU?


    Yes, ..But where do the laws evolve from that are then followed within the ECJ?

    Cutting to the quick does it matter either way because why do they even have any jurisdiction over our National laws. I don't regard the ECJ as international law by the way just another level of Europe.
  • Indigo said:

    The whole Scalia hate thing is a bit odd. He is known as an Originalist and Textualist, or putting it more plainly to believe that the Constitution should be interpreted in accordance with what it says, and how that would have been understood at the time it was written, rather than interpreting it according to what people wish it said, and according to a more modern view of the wording.

    It does seem a bit odd for a country founded on the basis of a Constitution which is treated with the reverence that approaches religion should have so many people that dislike someone because he wants people to follow what that document says, rather than what would be convenient for them for it to say.

    Just as bizarre as the American right's hatred for the ACLU, an organisation that exists to preserve and defend the rights guaranteed by the Constitution.

    The problem is he doesn't always follow constitution. Like in Bush vs Gore.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Lots more parties going to make the 5% threshold, should make things interesting
    I think it's the Social Democrats who are in the deepest hole rather than Merkel's party. They could find themselves fighting for second place vs AfD if current trends continue.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    rcs1000 said:

    Wanderer said:

    Vigorous defender of Cameron sitting at the table next to me at lunch.

    image
    :smiley:
    Lol. I would take a photo and post it but I think the elderly gentleman might tell me to f*ck off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    Indigo said:

    The whole Scalia hate thing is a bit odd. He is known as an Originalist and Textualist, or putting it more plainly to believe that the Constitution should be interpreted in accordance with what it says, and how that would have been understood at the time it was written, rather than interpreting it according to what people wish it said, and according to a more modern view of the wording.

    It does seem a bit odd for a country founded on the basis of a Constitution which is treated with the reverence that approaches religion should have so many people that dislike someone because he wants people to follow what that document says, rather than what would be convenient for them for it to say.

    Just as bizarre as the American right's hatred for the ACLU, an organisation that exists to preserve and defend the rights guaranteed by the Constitution.

    Were his dissents on abortion/gay marriage driven by the constitution ?

    Genuine question.
  • AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Lots more parties going to make the 5% threshold, should make things interesting
    I think it's the Social Democrats who are in the deepest hole rather than Merkel's party. They could find themselves fighting for second place vs AfD if current trends continue.
    That would place the CDU in a hole as well. How do they form a government? Even grander coalition, including the FDP? That'd be the only realistic option if AfD are to be excluded.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,277
    Indigo said:

    The whole Scalia hate thing is a bit odd. He is known as an Originalist and Textualist, or putting it more plainly to believe that the Constitution should be interpreted in accordance with what it says, and how that would have been understood at the time it was written, rather than interpreting it according to what people wish it said, and according to a more modern view of the wording.

    It does seem a bit odd for a country founded on the basis of a Constitution which is treated with the reverence that approaches religion should have so many people that dislike someone because he wants people to follow what that document says, rather than what would be convenient for them for it to say.

    Just as bizarre as the American right's hatred for the ACLU, an organisation that exists to preserve and defend the rights guaranteed by the Constitution.

    Because the ACLU only defends the constitution from the left. They do not support the second amendment for example, or at least they only support a very watered down view of it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,339
    And then the Cologne New Year "celebrations"....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Wanderer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wanderer said:

    Vigorous defender of Cameron sitting at the table next to me at lunch.

    image
    :smiley:
    Lol. I would take a photo and post it but I think the elderly gentleman might tell me to f*ck off.
    I think @RichardNabavi's photo has already been posted on here
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    @MaxPB Gun law & abortion look like two sides of the same right-left coin when it comes to the "constitution" to me.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    The whole Scalia hate thing is a bit odd. He is known as an Originalist and Textualist, or putting it more plainly to believe that the Constitution should be interpreted in accordance with what it says, and how that would have been understood at the time it was written, rather than interpreting it according to what people wish it said, and according to a more modern view of the wording.

    It does seem a bit odd for a country founded on the basis of a Constitution which is treated with the reverence that approaches religion should have so many people that dislike someone because he wants people to follow what that document says, rather than what would be convenient for them for it to say.

    Just as bizarre as the American right's hatred for the ACLU, an organisation that exists to preserve and defend the rights guaranteed by the Constitution.

    The problem is he doesn't always follow constitution. Like in Bush vs Gore.
    That seems open to debate, Scalia said:
    The decision was not close, it was 7–2 on the principal issue of whether there had been a constitutional violation ... But what if it was unconstitutional to have that recount? You're going to let it continue and come to a conclusion? And then overturn it?
    So two liberal justices agreed with him.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Lolz

    DPRK News Service
    Elections for chief US warlord move to South Carolina province, known for mountain scenery, oppression of negroes, and cannibalism.
  • Interesting article on Trump's support amongst Latinos:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/12/no-joke-trump-can-win-plenty-of-latinos.html

    Seems like he has found a new way of doing politics:

    While Latinos haven’t forgotten what Trump said about Mexican immigrants being criminals and rapists, and how he wants to deport 11 million people, they have begun to put such comments in the context of a candidate who, it often seems, has offended just about everyone in this country.

    So that's OK then!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,277

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Lots more parties going to make the 5% threshold, should make things interesting
    I think it's the Social Democrats who are in the deepest hole rather than Merkel's party. They could find themselves fighting for second place vs AfD if current trends continue.
    That would place the CDU in a hole as well. How do they form a government? Even grander coalition, including the FDP? That'd be the only realistic option if AfD are to be excluded.
    Even if the CDU and SPD score 50% between them it will be enough to continue the grand coalition. Part of the reason the smaller parties are profiting is because people are tired of the cosy political consensus between the main parties. The SPD are no longer a serious party of government, they will forever be the minor partner in a grand coalition, if that ever happened here to Labour, it wouldn't be long before voters began to abandon the party and supported some other leftist party who would never get into bed with the Tories. For that is what the SPD have done, prop up a centre right government for a few fig leaves of reforms that many are now looking to reverse (minimum wage and the lower retirement age are losing support very rapidly now that the €75bn per year refugee bill is becoming clear).
  • Moses_ said:



    Isn’t "prisoner votes" the ECJ and nothing to do with the EU?


    Yes, ..But where do the laws evolve from that are then followed within the ECJ?

    Cutting to the quick does it matter either way because why do they even have any jurisdiction over our National laws. I don't regard the ECJ as international law by the way just another level of Europe.

    ECJ is entirely EU. I think you are confusing it with the ECHR.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Indigo said:

    The whole Scalia hate thing is a bit odd. He is known as an Originalist and Textualist, or putting it more plainly to believe that the Constitution should be interpreted in accordance with what it says, and how that would have been understood at the time it was written, rather than interpreting it according to what people wish it said, and according to a more modern view of the wording.

    I think it was because he was hypocrite who was able to drop his 'originalism' whenever he felt it stood in the way of ruling how he liked.

    His twisting and ever shifting interpretation of the 14th amendment was breathtakingly hypocritical for an "Originalist"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,159

    Moses_ said:



    Isn’t "prisoner votes" the ECJ and nothing to do with the EU?


    Yes, ..But where do the laws evolve from that are then followed within the ECJ?

    Cutting to the quick does it matter either way because why do they even have any jurisdiction over our National laws. I don't regard the ECJ as international law by the way just another level of Europe.
    ECJ is entirely EU. I think you are confusing it with the ECHR.

    Yes, was getting confused. A bit like some BBO’s. Prosoners Votes wass originally an ECHR decision which as you rightly point is nothing to do with the EU. However, the ECJ has muddied the waters by suggesting that prisoners may have a right to vote in European elections.
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016
    Charles said:

    Feeling better now

    God save me from inexpertly sarky one-liners.
    Charles said:

    (Ps I'm the child of petit bourgeois, who won't be taking over the business, & it has zero bearing on my views on the referendum)

    Fine! No reason why it shouldn't have an influence, though. As every woman knows, nobody is wholly rational, even those males who think they are.

    Please don't feel insulted. I said "Most Tory members and voters are blockheaded xenophobes, whether they're impoverished petty bourgeois whose children won't be taking over the business [or whether they're in certain other specified demographics]". Not all. Most. And the same goes for the ones in those demographics.

    I recognise that some people will vote LEAVE (or REMAIN) having considered the "issues" in terribly deb-soc fashion and for reasons that are fairly rational. Not like those oiks on public transport, busy having children to get council flats, eh? But I'd love to discuss stuff with someone here who realises not everyone is like that and who recognises the role of the irrational. Everyone's got one vote, and turnout is likely to top 80%.

    It's interesting how LEAVE is Anglo-Saxon, whereas REMAIN is Romance. Which side appeals to the subterranean, the past, the traditional, the unrecognised, the id? If you were at an advertising agency working for the campaign to withdraw, would you think having LEAVE against REMAIN would help or hinder your message?

    If the LEAVE campaign is well run, they could walk this. Never mind the appeal to responsibility that's embedded in the word "remain", as though remaining (as distinct from staying in) is for grown-ups who understand stuff. People who answer poll questions tend to want to appear to be proper people who deserve the vote that their social masters have deigned to give them. (Never mind that the last thing the public school elite respects in any member of the hoi polloi is an opinion on a social or political issue.) It could be different on the day.



  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    Sturgeon was hilarious when she advised Cameron not to repeat the mistakes of the NO campaign in the indyref. You what?

    All the stuff about the Scottish angle, and what happens if Scotland has a different result from Britain as a whole, comes down to the SNP playing its traditional role of helping the Tory government.

    But Toryism is much bigger than the Tory government, as we shall soon find out.
This discussion has been closed.