But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Must admit to being mighty surprised to see Labour drop 2% points in the last ComRes VI online poll, when all media attention appeared fixed on the EU negotiations fall-out and Jeremy Corbyn seemed to have a breather from attack. – If he can’t rally the polls during the good times, when can he?
Alastair might be right, few people give a stuff about the EU, hence the Tory share remaining the same/going up with YouGov and ComRes since the deal was announced.
Then what explains Cameron's decline? After all most of the Kippers/committed-Outers already (presumably) had unfavourable views of him. Hence the movement must have been previously positive responders rating him more negatively.
Tories up, based on unpalatableness of alternative Cameron down, possibly hinting at a a shift in the balance of the Tories
They are actually measuring two different things - and you can't draw any conclusions on salience of the EU as a result
Reversion to the mean. There were stages in the last parliament when Cameron was less popular than his party.
Is the real battle in Wales not for third place? The Tories seem to have pulled clear of Plaid in recent polling and at the General Election.
More likely fourth between UKIP and the LDs.
Whatever Farage says, however, it will be a very great surprise if UKIP get more than one seat (a list seat in Monmouthshire being the likeliest path).
The outcome will therefore almost certainly be a Labour/Plaid coalition. The question might be whether Leanne Wood might try and either take the first ministership herself or find a reasonably moderate figure from one party or the other to head it. She wouldn't find that easy, but I wouldn't put it past her to try.
Current polling suggests UKIP will win 13-17% of the List vote in Wales. If so, they'll win a whole chunk of List seats.
Unless they pile up a lot of decent constituency finishes as well, that will make no difference. And they won't. You saw at the general election how terrible their targeted campaigning is.
Bear in mind, quite a lot of that may be in the Valleys as a form of empty protest against Labour. Labour will still win the constituencies and Plaid most of the top ups.
Unless they make a major breakthrough in North Wales, the Wrexham area, they will get nothing for those votes.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
The Dutch situation is even more stark, with Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom hitting 41-42% six times in opinion polls taken in the last month, taking 20%+ leads, and the Dutch Labour party often in *single* figures:
But this is what happens when parties refuse to adapt and change, and instead react by barely concealing the fact they hold the bulk of their voters (and their views) in disdain.
Re the Netherlands: to add, there's a lot of variation in the Dutch polling. Peil - which does a weekly internet tracker - has the PVV on 41-42 out of 150 (i.e. 27-28%). By contrast, Ipsos has them on 32 seats (21%), and I&O have them on 27 seats (18%).
All of these polls were taken in the last two weeks.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
I hope we see him on our TV screens as much as possible.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
I doubt it.
Because the members have no say in selecting the final two candidates.
MPs decide - and MPs' number 1 consideration is themselves - ie getting re-elected - and that means choosing someone who looks like a winner.
They know what happened when they put IDS in the final two. And they know what happened when Labour MPs nominated Corbyn.
They will ensure that both finalists are suitable for GE 2020.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
Shouldn't it be forget George, Sir Lynton played a blinder ?
Netherlands (part 3). The PVV is also very different in terms of its support to UKIP and equivalent. On the supplementaries on the Piel poll, 55% of PVV supporters agreed with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", with only 32% disagreeing.
Must admit to being mighty surprised to see Labour drop 2% points in the last ComRes VI online poll, when all media attention appeared fixed on the EU negotiations fall-out and Jeremy Corbyn seemed to have a breather from attack. – If he can’t rally the polls during the good times, when can he?
Alastair might be right, few people give a stuff about the EU, hence the Tory share remaining the same/going up with YouGov and ComRes since the deal was announced.
Then what explains Cameron's decline? After all most of the Kippers/committed-Outers already (presumably) had unfavourable views of him. Hence the movement must have been previously positive responders rating him more negatively.
Tories up, based on unpalatableness of alternative Cameron down, possibly hinting at a a shift in the balance of the Tories
They are actually measuring two different things - and you can't draw any conclusions on salience of the EU as a result
Reversion to the mean. There were stages in the last parliament when Cameron was less popular than his party.
There's little doubt that Cameron's deal with the EU has been received very badly, and thats affected his standing.
I think that the poll findings on over 65 attitudes to Labour and Corbyn are even worse for Labour than at first glance. We all know that this generation votes. It is also immune to the fads and hysteria of social media. Instead it reinforces its views in the pub the club and local associations. It has already made its mind up about Corbyn. He has defined himself without his opponents having to lift a finger. When Conservative HQ dig out nuggets of his past speeches to sad Trots in draughty halls his standing will go lower. I thought that Labour had done well for the last three weeks. Corbyn has said nothing and the government has had to deal with the doc strike ,EU negotiations and Google tax. But when you look beneath the surface at long term opinion within the country Labours problem is immense. How do you solve a problem like the leader?
Conservatives on here not surprisingly drooling over the ComRes numbers though whether it's a clear trend or an outlier remains to be seen.
Two things are always clear in politics - first, nothing lasts forever and second, nature abhors a vacuum. An effective and coherent opposition to the Conservatives will emerge which combined with the stresses and strains of a long period in Government, will ultimately lead to the downfall and defeat of the Conservatives.
We are nine months into a sixty month electoral cycle. That's an eternity for things to change and events to conspire to produce change.
As to the "future" of Labour, the party has changed and evolved on any number of occasions but the ComRes figures (and others) show the clear task facing any emerging opposition to the Conservatives. Not only do they have to come up with policies to convince older people but, given many of these older people are parents, grand parents or even great grand parents, policies for families have to be paramount as well.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
Shouldn't it be forget George, Sir Lynton played a blinder ?
And Nicola too.
The opening line of the thread is
The Tories winning a majority in 2015 was much like an orgy, you're never quite sure who to thank afterwards.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
According to Cameron at 10 Osborne was marginalised in the 2015 election, Crosby had complete control.
Just checking in after a couple of days in Town on business (well, apart from the over indulgent evening at GQSt).
Fantastic ComRes poll. I see that, as I predicted, the loud wailing from the Docs has had no effect on actual VI!
Combined with this oldies subsample and the boundaries review, it is looking increasingly difficult for any Labour leader to beat any Conservative leader. Suggests to me that it might to time to ease out of the usual laying of the favourite mentality re: Osborne.
I could almost even see him take over if there was a leave vote - taking hard choices, no time for a change in a crisis etc.
Is the real battle in Wales not for third place? The Tories seem to have pulled clear of Plaid in recent polling and at the General Election.
More likely fourth between UKIP and the LDs.
Whatever Farage says, however, it will be a very great surprise if UKIP get more than one seat (a list seat in Monmouthshire being the likeliest path).
The outcome will therefore almost certainly be a Labour/Plaid coalition. The question might be whether Leanne Wood might try and either take the first ministership herself or find a reasonably moderate figure from one party or the other to head it. She wouldn't find that easy, but I wouldn't put it past her to try.
Current polling suggests UKIP will win 13-17% of the List vote in Wales. If so, they'll win a whole chunk of List seats.
Unless they pile up a lot of decent constituency finishes as well, that will make no difference. And they won't. You saw at the general election how terrible their targeted campaigning is.
Bear in mind, quite a lot of that may be in the Valleys as a form of empty protest against Labour. Labour will still win the constituencies and Plaid most of the top ups.
Unless they make a major breakthrough in North Wales, the Wrexham area, they will get nothing for those votes.
They won't win any constituencies, but they'll get a big vote overall.
The Lib Dems won 4 list seats with 8% in 2011 . UKIP will do better than that.
The Dutch situation is even more stark, with Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom hitting 41-42% six times in opinion polls taken in the last month, taking 20%+ leads, and the Dutch Labour party often in *single* figures:
But this is what happens when parties refuse to adapt and change, and instead react by barely concealing the fact they hold the bulk of their voters (and their views) in disdain.
If I remember correctly, Wilders is not banned from the UK.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
According to Cameron at 10 Osborne was marginalised in the 2015 election, Crosby had complete control.
The Dutch situation is even more stark, with Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom hitting 41-42% six times in opinion polls taken in the last month, taking 20%+ leads, and the Dutch Labour party often in *single* figures:
But this is what happens when parties refuse to adapt and change, and instead react by barely concealing the fact they hold the bulk of their voters (and their views) in disdain.
Good god. I hadn't seen that Dutch polling. Wilders on 41%????
He's not.
That's 41 seats out of 150.
You're quite right. My bad. However he is still polling almost twice as high as the next party.
Is he?
Peil has radically different results from all the other pollsters: Ipsos has him having a 4% lead (7 seats), and I&O less than 1% (1 seat). Peil may be right, of course. But it is worth noting that every other pollster has the PVV quite considerably lower.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
According to Cameron at 10 Osborne was marginalised in the 2015 election, Crosby had complete control.
Sir Lynton's main message was 'Don't let Labour and the SNP ruin Osborne's economic miracle'
Re the Netherlands: to add, there's a lot of variation in the Dutch polling. Peil - which does a weekly internet tracker - has the PVV on 41-42 out of 150 (i.e. 27-28%). By contrast, Ipsos has them on 32 seats (21%), and I&O have them on 27 seats (18%).
All of these polls were taken in the last two weeks.
Nevertheless, the PVV being on 25-30% is a very strong showing and on those seat numbers would result in Gert being the next Dutch PM, probably with rather passive support from the CU/CDA and VVD.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
Shouldn't it be forget George, Sir Lynton played a blinder ?
And Nicola too.
The opening line of the thread is
The Tories winning a majority in 2015 was much like an orgy, you're never quite sure who to thank afterwards.
TSE, I've been under a lot of stress recently. Could you please not mention the words 'orgy' and 'Sturgeon' in close proximity? I misread it and got a horrible image which hasn't improved my mental state.
Is the real battle in Wales not for third place? The Tories seem to have pulled clear of Plaid in recent polling and at the General Election.
More likely fourth between UKIP and the LDs.
Whatever Farage says, however, it will be a very great surprise if UKIP get more than one seat (a list seat in Monmouthshire being the likeliest path).
The outcome will therefore almost certainly be a Labour/Plaid coalition. The question might be whether Leanne Wood might try and either take the first ministership herself or find a reasonably moderate figure from one party or the other to head it. She wouldn't find that easy, but I wouldn't put it past her to try.
Current polling suggests UKIP will win 13-17% of the List vote in Wales. If so, they'll win a whole chunk of List seats.
Unless they pile up a lot of decent constituency finishes as well, that will make no difference. And they won't. You saw at the general election how terrible their targeted campaigning is.
Bear in mind, quite a lot of that may be in the Valleys as a form of empty protest against Labour. Labour will still win the constituencies and Plaid most of the top ups.
Unless they make a major breakthrough in North Wales, the Wrexham area, they will get nothing for those votes.
They won't win any constituencies, but they'll get a big vote overall.
The Lib Dems won 4 list seats with 8% in 2011 . UKIP will do better than that.
Isn't the system in Wales rather complicated, and it's perfectly possible for UKIP to get more votes than the LibDems and fewer seats?
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
Shouldn't it be forget George, Sir Lynton played a blinder ?
And Nicola too.
The opening line of the thread is
The Tories winning a majority in 2015 was much like an orgy, you're never quite sure who to thank afterwards.
TSE, I've been under a lot of stress recently. Could you please not mention the words 'orgy' and 'Sturgeon' in close proximity? I misread it and got a horrible image which hasn't improved my mental state.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
There is most certainly a temptation for this, are we seeing that in the US? If they can have Trump we'll have Sanders? The 'triangulators' are yesterdays men... Maybe.....
Conservatives on here not surprisingly drooling over the ComRes numbers though whether it's a clear trend or an outlier remains to be seen.
Two things are always clear in politics - first, nothing lasts forever and second, nature abhors a vacuum. An effective and coherent opposition to the Conservatives will emerge which combined with the stresses and strains of a long period in Government, will ultimately lead to the downfall and defeat of the Conservatives.
We are nine months into a sixty month electoral cycle. That's an eternity for things to change and events to conspire to produce change.
As to the "future" of Labour, the party has changed and evolved on any number of occasions but the ComRes figures (and others) show the clear task facing any emerging opposition to the Conservatives. Not only do they have to come up with policies to convince older people but, given many of these older people are parents, grand parents or even great grand parents, policies for families have to be paramount as well.
I can see something like this causing huge problems for the Conservatives if they remain in power for the next 10 years:
The housing ladder is disappearing for most young working households on modest incomes. For this group home ownership is projected to be approaching just one-in-ten by 2025, according to new analysis to be published next week by the independent Resolution Foundation think tank.
Re the Netherlands: to add, there's a lot of variation in the Dutch polling. Peil - which does a weekly internet tracker - has the PVV on 41-42 out of 150 (i.e. 27-28%). By contrast, Ipsos has them on 32 seats (21%), and I&O have them on 27 seats (18%).
All of these polls were taken in the last two weeks.
Nevertheless, the PVV being on 25-30% is a very strong showing and on those seat numbers would result in Gert being the next Dutch PM, probably with rather passive support from the CU/CDA and VVD.
But is Peil right? Or Ipsos or I&O?
Peil dominates the Wikipedia table because it has the most polls, but their polls are rather out of whack with the others. (Which doesn't mean they are wrong.)
I do find it amusing, though, that PVV supporters are massively more Euro-enthusiastic than even the LibDems. I think it's all about Islamic immigration there.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
Shouldn't it be forget George, Sir Lynton played a blinder ?
And Nicola too.
The opening line of the thread is
The Tories winning a majority in 2015 was much like an orgy, you're never quite sure who to thank afterwards.
TSE, I've been under a lot of stress recently. Could you please not mention the words 'orgy' and 'Sturgeon' in close proximity? I misread it and got a horrible image which hasn't improved my mental state.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
According to Cameron at 10 Osborne was marginalised in the 2015 election, Crosby had complete control.
Sir Lynton's main message was 'Don't let Labour and the SNP ruin Osborne's economic miracle'
What economic miracle would that be? House prices soaring beyond the reach of anyone without the bank of mum and dad?
Re Shetland in the Scottish election: in 2011, there was an independent called Billy Fox who came second. He's not standing again. Does anyone know what he's views were, and where his votes are likely to go?
Is the real battle in Wales not for third place? The Tories seem to have pulled clear of Plaid in recent polling and at the General Election.
More likely fourth between UKIP and the LDs.
Whatever Farage says, however, it will be a very great surprise if UKIP get more than one seat (a list seat in Monmouthshire being the likeliest path).
The outcome will therefore almost certainly be a Labour/Plaid coalition. The question might be whether Leanne Wood might try and either take the first ministership herself or find a reasonably moderate figure from one party or the other to head it. She wouldn't find that easy, but I wouldn't put it past her to try.
Current polling suggests UKIP will win 13-17% of the List vote in Wales. If so, they'll win a whole chunk of List seats.
Unless they pile up a lot of decent constituency finishes as well, that will make no difference. And they won't. You saw at the general election how terrible their targeted campaigning is.
Bear in mind, quite a lot of that may be in the Valleys as a form of empty protest against Labour. Labour will still win the constituencies and Plaid most of the top ups.
Unless they make a major breakthrough in North Wales, the Wrexham area, they will get nothing for those votes.
They won't win any constituencies, but they'll get a big vote overall.
The Lib Dems won 4 list seats with 8% in 2011 . UKIP will do better than that.
Isn't the system in Wales rather complicated, and it's perfectly possible for UKIP to get more votes than the LibDems and fewer seats?
I thought the system was much the same as the Scottish Parliament and London Assembly. D'hontd is used to allocate top up seats.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
Shouldn't it be forget George, Sir Lynton played a blinder ?
And Nicola too.
The opening line of the thread is
The Tories winning a majority in 2015 was much like an orgy, you're never quite sure who to thank afterwards.
TSE, I've been under a lot of stress recently. Could you please not mention the words 'orgy' and 'Sturgeon' in close proximity? I misread it and got a horrible image which hasn't improved my mental state.
Knickerless Sturgeon ?
most of our site Nats will be typing one-handed for the evening.
Must admit to being mighty surprised to see Labour drop 2% points in the last ComRes VI online poll, when all media attention appeared fixed on the EU negotiations fall-out and Jeremy Corbyn seemed to have a breather from attack. – If he can’t rally the polls during the good times, when can he?
Alastair might be right, few people give a stuff about the EU, hence the Tory share remaining the same/going up with YouGov and ComRes since the deal was announced.
Then what explains Cameron's decline? After all most of the Kippers/committed-Outers already (presumably) had unfavourable views of him. Hence the movement must have been previously positive responders rating him more negatively.
Tories up, based on unpalatableness of alternative Cameron down, possibly hinting at a a shift in the balance of the Tories
They are actually measuring two different things - and you can't draw any conclusions on salience of the EU as a result
Reversion to the mean. There were stages in the last parliament when Cameron was less popular than his party.
There's little doubt that Cameron's deal with the EU has been received very badly, and thats affected his standing.
I've never held Cameron's Europhilia against him - the 'Right' is a very broad church indeed, and I've always thought of myself as a pragmatist. He's an effective speaker, looks the part and 'gets' government by cabinet. In comparison to his predecessors, he's head and shoulders above them.
However, having made little progress in his negotiations, he's thrown his good name away with the most lazy, transparent lies imaginable. I cannot believe that a man of his intelligence really believed he'd achieved much; for him then to repeatedly tout it as something major is an insult to his supporters.
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
I doubt it.
Because the members have no say in selecting the final two candidates.
MPs decide - and MPs' number 1 consideration is themselves - ie getting re-elected - and that means choosing someone who looks like a winner.
They know what happened when they put IDS in the final two. And they know what happened when Labour MPs nominated Corbyn.
They will ensure that both finalists are suitable for GE 2020.
I don't actually think the Tories will elect a quasi-Fascist leader. But I do think our politics is going to swing right. As is happening in the rest of Europe. Cf Wilders and the debate downthread.
Corbyn is a symptom of the left's irrelevance, not a symbol of its resurgence.
So I say this as someone who rarely goes abroad and doesn't really have a feel for how things are in Europe, but I get the feeling that the Left do a better job of making people feel embarrassed about supporting parties like Ukip in this country than on the continent. I guess that's a reflection of the fact that we're sheltered by the Channel, but I get the feeling that a sizable chunk of voters on the continent have decided "f*** it, enough is enough".
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
I haven't watched the clip but it is a killer line that Leave should shout from the roof tops. Yes Scotland failed to articulate that No didn't mean the status quo.
Re the Netherlands: to add, there's a lot of variation in the Dutch polling. Peil - which does a weekly internet tracker - has the PVV on 41-42 out of 150 (i.e. 27-28%). By contrast, Ipsos has them on 32 seats (21%), and I&O have them on 27 seats (18%).
All of these polls were taken in the last two weeks.
Nevertheless, the PVV being on 25-30% is a very strong showing and on those seat numbers would result in Gert being the next Dutch PM, probably with rather passive support from the CU/CDA and VVD.
But is Peil right? Or Ipsos or I&O?
Peil dominates the Wikipedia table because it has the most polls, but their polls are rather out of whack with the others. (Which doesn't mean they are wrong.)
I do find it amusing, though, that PVV supporters are massively more Euro-enthusiastic than even the LibDems. I think it's all about Islamic immigration there.
It's a good question, and I don't know the answer.
It is amusing, particularly since Gilders wants to return to the guilder and withdraw from the EU, but it has been much more successful in broadening the base of its appeal than many other right-wing parties in continental Europe.
For instance, it self describes itself as humanistic and is quite strongly supported in both the LGBT and Jewish communities.
I haven't watched the clip but it is a killer line that Leave should shout from the roof tops. Yes Scotland failed to articulate that No didn't mean the status quo.
I thought the latest integration proposals were from the SNP ?
Must admit to being mighty surprised to see Labour drop 2% points in the last ComRes VI online poll, when all media attention appeared fixed on the EU negotiations fall-out and Jeremy Corbyn seemed to have a breather from attack. – If he can’t rally the polls during the good times, when can he?
Alastair might be right, few people give a stuff about the EU, hence the Tory share remaining the same/going up with YouGov and ComRes since the deal was announced.
Then what explains Cameron's decline? After all most of the Kippers/committed-Outers already (presumably) had unfavourable views of him. Hence the movement must have been previously positive responders rating him more negatively.
Tories up, based on unpalatableness of alternative Cameron down, possibly hinting at a a shift in the balance of the Tories
They are actually measuring two different things - and you can't draw any conclusions on salience of the EU as a result
Reversion to the mean. There were stages in the last parliament when Cameron was less popular than his party.
There's little doubt that Cameron's deal with the EU has been received very badly, and thats affected his standing.
I've never held Cameron's Europhilia against him - the 'Right' is a very broad church indeed, and I've always thought of myself as a pragmatist. He's an effective speaker, looks the part and 'gets' government by cabinet. In comparison to his predecessors, he's head and shoulders above them.
However, having made little progress in his negotiations, he's thrown his good name away with the most lazy, transparent lies imaginable. I cannot believe that a man of his intelligence really believed he'd achieved much; for him then to repeatedly tout it as something major is an insult to his supporters.
Exactly. It's the blatant lying that is killing him. Quite bizarre misjudgement.
Napolean said he'd rather have generals who were lucky than good and Cameron has certainly had his fair share of luck - maybe he has confused luck with being good?
Must admit to being mighty surprised to see Labour drop 2% points in the last ComRes VI online poll, when all media attention appeared fixed on the EU negotiations fall-out and Jeremy Corbyn seemed to have a breather from attack. – If he can’t rally the polls during the good times, when can he?
Alastair might be right, few people give a stuff about the EU, hence the Tory share remaining the same/going up with YouGov and ComRes since the deal was announced.
Then what explains Cameron's decline? After all most of the Kippers/committed-Outers already (presumably) had unfavourable views of him. Hence the movement must have been previously positive responders rating him more negatively.
Tories up, based on unpalatableness of alternative Cameron down, possibly hinting at a a shift in the balance of the Tories
They are actually measuring two different things - and you can't draw any conclusions on salience of the EU as a result
Reversion to the mean. There were stages in the last parliament when Cameron was less popular than his party.
There's little doubt that Cameron's deal with the EU has been received very badly, and thats affected his standing.
I've never held Cameron's Europhilia against him - the 'Right' is a very broad church indeed, and I've always thought of myself as a pragmatist. He's an effective speaker, looks the part and 'gets' government by cabinet. In comparison to his predecessors, he's head and shoulders above them.
However, having made little progress in his negotiations, he's thrown his good name away with the most lazy, transparent lies imaginable. I cannot believe that a man of his intelligence really believed he'd achieved much; for him then to repeatedly tout it as something major is an insult to his supporters.
Exactly. It's the blatant lying that is killing him. Quite bizarre misjudgement.
All political careers end in failure.
Either you're caught out by events, or you develop a tin ear towards the voters.
Must admit to being mighty surprised to see Labour drop 2% points in the last ComRes VI online poll, when all media attention appeared fixed on the EU negotiations fall-out and Jeremy Corbyn seemed to have a breather from attack. – If he can’t rally the polls during the good times, when can he?
Alastair might be right, few people give a stuff about the EU, hence the Tory share remaining the same/going up with YouGov and ComRes since the deal was announced.
Then what explains Cameron's decline? After all most of the Kippers/committed-Outers already (presumably) had unfavourable views of him. Hence the movement must have been previously positive responders rating him more negatively.
Tories up, based on unpalatableness of alternative Cameron down, possibly hinting at a a shift in the balance of the Tories
They are actually measuring two different things - and you can't draw any conclusions on salience of the EU as a result
Reversion to the mean. There were stages in the last parliament when Cameron was less popular than his party.
There's little doubt that Cameron's deal with the EU has been received very badly, and thats affected his standing.
I've never held Cameron's Europhilia against him - the 'Right' is a very broad church indeed, and I've always thought of myself as a pragmatist. He's an effective speaker, looks the part and 'gets' government by cabinet. In comparison to his predecessors, he's head and shoulders above them.
However, having made little progress in his negotiations, he's thrown his good name away with the most lazy, transparent lies imaginable. I cannot believe that a man of his intelligence really believed he'd achieved much; for him then to repeatedly tout it as something major is an insult to his supporters.
Exactly. It's the blatant lying that is killing him. Quite bizarre misjudgement.
I'd add that things like European intelligence and security matters are a sweet spot in terms of personal experience. The idea that we wouldn't cooperate on those matters in or out of the EU...ridiculous. If nothing else, other than the French, none of 'em have anything remotely comparable to GCHQ. We're Europe's Sigint heavyweights.
I haven't watched the clip but it is a killer line that Leave should shout from the roof tops. Yes Scotland failed to articulate that No didn't mean the status quo.
The Eurozone yes but we are outside that, the best bet is to form a relationship on the Outer rim with other-non Eurozone nations like Sweden, Denmark and Hungary
Just looked up train prices from London to St Ives in Cornwall. Return is £108. Splitting the journey by going via Bristol is £72. They ought to give that option to begin with instead of assuming you want to get there as fast as possible without changing.
Re the Netherlands: to add, there's a lot of variation in the Dutch polling. Peil - which does a weekly internet tracker - has the PVV on 41-42 out of 150 (i.e. 27-28%). By contrast, Ipsos has them on 32 seats (21%), and I&O have them on 27 seats (18%).
All of these polls were taken in the last two weeks.
Nevertheless, the PVV being on 25-30% is a very strong showing and on those seat numbers would result in Gert being the next Dutch PM, probably with rather passive support from the CU/CDA and VVD.
But is Peil right? Or Ipsos or I&O?
Peil dominates the Wikipedia table because it has the most polls, but their polls are rather out of whack with the others. (Which doesn't mean they are wrong.)
I do find it amusing, though, that PVV supporters are massively more Euro-enthusiastic than even the LibDems. I think it's all about Islamic immigration there.
It's a good question, and I don't know the answer.
It is amusing, particularly since Gilders wants to return to the guilder and withdraw from the EU, but it has been much more successful in broadening the base of its appeal than many other right-wing parties in continental Europe.
For instance, it self describes itself as humanistic and is quite strongly supported in both the LGBT and Jewish communities.
I think the PVV has very different roots to many of the other insurgent groups across Europe. They see the Netherlands historic tolerance being challenged by Islam, and want to halt that. (There is too much tolerance of intolerance, in their view).
I don't think many PVV voters are attracted by their economic views: integrating people with very different cultures that is the issue.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
You might be looking forward to quasi-fascism but having been in office for a decade, people will be getting tired of the Conservatives and naturally the election of this steroid-pumped Thatcherite and the implementation of his/her policies combined with the experience of defeat will likely push Labour (and other parties) back into the centre.
When said quasi-fascist's policies are shown to be the pile of nonsense we all know them to be, the Conservatives would suffer a defeat that would make 1997 look like a good result.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
According to Cameron at 10 Osborne was marginalised in the 2015 election, Crosby had complete control.
Sir Lynton's main message was 'Don't let Labour and the SNP ruin Osborne's economic miracle'
What economic miracle would that be? House prices soaring beyond the reach of anyone without the bank of mum and dad?
Well if the housing market collapsed that would not be great for the economy either though it is true that unless you are very wealthy only couples combining a joint income can now get on the housing ladder in most areas
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
You might be looking forward to quasi-fascism but having been in office for a decade, people will be getting tired of the Conservatives and naturally the election of this steroid-pumped Thatcherite and the implementation of his/her policies combined with the experience of defeat will likely push Labour (and other parties) back into the centre.
When said quasi-fascist's policies are shown to be the pile of nonsense we all know them to be, the Conservatives would suffer a defeat that would make 1997 look like a good result.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
I do find it interesting that Conservative modernisers thought the key lesson from New Labour was to tack sharply to the Left on social policy (and still do, witness the statements on boardroom pay, discrimination at Oxford, "hatespeak" in playgrounds and transgenderism) whilst maintaining a relatively dry position on fiscal and economic policy just at the point in history where such positions become an electoral liability.
I understand there are those close to Osborne who want to make the situation worse by further "modernising" the Conservative position on immigration.
When the rugs falls out from under them (and it will) it will fall out very quickly.
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
Re the Netherlands: to add, there's a lot of variation in the Dutch polling. Peil - which does a weekly internet tracker - has the PVV on 41-42 out of 150 (i.e. 27-28%). By contrast, Ipsos has them on 32 seats (21%), and I&O have them on 27 seats (18%).
All of these polls were taken in the last two weeks.
Nevertheless, the PVV being on 25-30% is a very strong showing and on those seat numbers would result in Gert being the next Dutch PM, probably with rather passive support from the CU/CDA and VVD.
But is Peil right? Or Ipsos or I&O?
Peil dominates the Wikipedia table because it has the most polls, but their polls are rather out of whack with the others. (Which doesn't mean they are wrong.)
I do find it amusing, though, that PVV supporters are massively more Euro-enthusiastic than even the LibDems. I think it's all about Islamic immigration there.
It's a good question, and I don't know the answer.
It is amusing, particularly since Gilders wants to return to the guilder and withdraw from the EU, but it has been much more successful in broadening the base of its appeal than many other right-wing parties in continental Europe.
For instance, it self describes itself as humanistic and is quite strongly supported in both the LGBT and Jewish communities.
I think the PVV has very different roots to many of the other insurgent groups across Europe. They see the Netherlands historic tolerance being challenged by Islam, and want to halt that. (There is too much tolerance of intolerance, in their view).
I don't think many PVV voters are attracted by their economic views: integrating people with very different cultures that is the issue.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
You might be looking forward to quasi-fascism but having been in office for a decade, people will be getting tired of the Conservatives and naturally the election of this steroid-pumped Thatcherite and the implementation of his/her policies combined with the experience of defeat will likely push Labour (and other parties) back into the centre.
When said quasi-fascist's policies are shown to be the pile of nonsense we all know them to be, the Conservatives would suffer a defeat that would make 1997 look like a good result.
YAY.
How much longer are the centre/centre-left going to hurl the "fascist" or "quasi-fascist" label at right-wing parties seeking to do something about issues that no other mainstream party will touch?
The assumption is that any such party that gained power - or threatened to - would suffer a catastrophic defeat at the hands of the electorate in response to this rhetoric.
But it's just as likely you provoke the ire of the electorate by insulting them and their intelligence.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
The latest Tory members poll has Liam Fox leading, whether he quite fits the bill you set out is another matter. The biggest beneficiaries of a narrow Remain vote are likely to be UKIP, especially if Cameron succeeds Osborne, they could be kingmakers in a hung parliament
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
I think Wanderer meant, who would decide which hereditaries with LD affiliations would replace them?
My guess is that there is no provision for that so they just lose their hereditaries. Remember, it was only meant to be temporary when it was put in place, never worked out in detail.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
You might be looking forward to quasi-fascism but having been in office for a decade, people will be getting tired of the Conservatives and naturally the election of this steroid-pumped Thatcherite and the implementation of his/her policies combined with the experience of defeat will likely push Labour (and other parties) back into the centre.
When said quasi-fascist's policies are shown to be the pile of nonsense we all know them to be, the Conservatives would suffer a defeat that would make 1997 look like a good result.
I haven't watched the clip but it is a killer line that Leave should shout from the roof tops. Yes Scotland failed to articulate that No didn't mean the status quo.
It isn't just a killer line, it is true. Juncker said so himself, in response to UK demands for a deal, he said something along the lines of there are ways in which we can have different countries move towards closer integration at differing rates.
Is the real battle in Wales not for third place? The Tories seem to have pulled clear of Plaid in recent polling and at the General Election.
More likely fourth between UKIP and the LDs.
Whatever Farage says, however, it will be a very great surprise if UKIP get more than one seat (a list seat in Monmouthshire being the likeliest path).
The outcome will therefore almost certainly be a Labour/Plaid coalition. The question might be whether Leanne Wood might try and either take the first ministership herself or find a reasonably moderate figure from one party or the other to head it. She wouldn't find that easy, but I wouldn't put it past her to try.
Current polling suggests UKIP will win 13-17% of the List vote in Wales. If so, they'll win a whole chunk of List seats.
Unless they pile up a lot of decent constituency finishes as well, that will make no difference. And they won't. You saw at the general election how terrible their targeted campaigning is.
Bear in mind, quite a lot of that may be in the Valleys as a form of empty protest against Labour. Labour will still win the constituencies and Plaid most of the top ups.
Unless they make a major breakthrough in North Wales, the Wrexham area, they will get nothing for those votes.
Re the Netherlands: to add, there's a lot of variation in the Dutch polling. Peil - which does a weekly internet tracker - has the PVV on 41-42 out of 150 (i.e. 27-28%). By contrast, Ipsos has them on 32 seats (21%), and I&O have them on 27 seats (18%).
All of these polls were taken in the last two weeks.
Nevertheless, the PVV being on 25-30% is a very strong showing and on those seat numbers would result in Gert being the next Dutch PM, probably with rather passive support from the CU/CDA and VVD.
But is Peil right? Or Ipsos or I&O?
Peil dominates the Wikipedia table because it has the most polls, but their polls are rather out of whack with the others. (Which doesn't mean they are wrong.)
I do find it amusing, though, that PVV supporters are massively more Euro-enthusiastic than even the LibDems. I think it's all about Islamic immigration there.
It's a good question, and I don't know the answer.
It is amusing, particularly since Gilders wants to return to the guilder and withdraw from the EU, but it has been much more successful in broadening the base of its appeal than many other right-wing parties in continental Europe.
For instance, it self describes itself as humanistic and is quite strongly supported in both the LGBT and Jewish communities.
I think the PVV has very different roots to many of the other insurgent groups across Europe. They see the Netherlands historic tolerance being challenged by Islam, and want to halt that. (There is too much tolerance of intolerance, in their view).
I don't think many PVV voters are attracted by their economic views: integrating people with very different cultures that is the issue.
I agree. I'd be voting for them, if I were Dutch.
As an aside, I wouldn't look to the Netherlands for the historic 'break with the EU' that a lot are waiting for. The Euro is just too popular there. (Unemployment is relatively low, and growth has been reasonably robust.)
Wilders, if he's pitching for the PM's role will also have to ally with very pro-European parties, and also needs to recognise that his own supporters are much more pro-EU than him. What I would expect is an essential halt to Islamic immigration to the Netherlands.
The MET are still putting a lot of faith in "Nick" account, despite even his own family saying he is a fantasist and no evidence to back up his claims other than he correctly described some details of interior of some private military premises.
I do hope the investigators are aware of techniques like cold reading when it comes to people describing things like this. Given how the plod dealt with the allegations against William Roache it makes you wonder about their training. Not sure which bit of the handbook says, yes get their husband to sit in on an interview and answer all the questions for their wife.
UKIP didn't contest any of the constituency seats at the last Welsh Assembly election.
I hadn't realised that. Small wonder they won no seats. And if they try the same path again, they will suffer the same fate again, as the Conservatives and Plaid will have twice as many votes as they do whatever the official split.
Is it really too much to ask that they hire someone with a basic grasp of mathematics to work on their strategy?
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
But you are assuming that the children will have the same allegiance as their parents.
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
But you are assuming that the children will have the same allegiance as their parents.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
The latest Tory members poll has Liam Fox leading, whether he quite fits the bill you set out is another matter. The biggest beneficiaries of a narrow Remain vote are likely to be UKIP, especially if Cameron succeeds Osborne, they could be kingmakers in a hung parliament
Isn't that just a ConHome Voodoo Poll though? I've not been to that site for years - and have never voted in one of their polls.
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
I think Wanderer meant, who would decide which hereditaries with LD affiliations would replace them?
My guess is that there is no provision for that so they just lose their hereditaries. Remember, it was only meant to be temporary when it was put in place, never worked out in detail.
I think 'all' (ie not just those selected to attend the Lords) the LibDem heredity peers can vote to appoint which of them are the party representatives in the Lords. I assume there are more in total than just the 4 who attend the Lords.
I haven't watched the clip but it is a killer line that Leave should shout from the roof tops. Yes Scotland failed to articulate that No didn't mean the status quo.
It isn't just a killer line, it is true. Juncker said so himself, in response to UK demands for a deal, he said something along the lines of there are ways in which we can have different countries move towards closer integration at differing rates.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
According to Cameron at 10 Osborne was marginalised in the 2015 election, Crosby had complete control.
Sir Lynton's main message was 'Don't let Labour and the SNP ruin Osborne's economic miracle'
What economic miracle would that be? House prices soaring beyond the reach of anyone without the bank of mum and dad?
Must admit to being mighty surprised to see Labour drop 2% points in the last ComRes VI online poll, when all media attention appeared fixed on the EU negotiations fall-out and Jeremy Corbyn seemed to have a breather from attack. – If he can’t rally the polls during the good times, when can he?
Alastair might be right, few people give a stuff about the EU, hence the Tory share remaining the same/going up with YouGov and ComRes since the deal was announced.
Then what explains Cameron's decline? After all most of the Kippers/committed-Outers already (presumably) had unfavourable views of him. Hence the movement must have been previously positive responders rating him more negatively.
Tories up, based on unpalatableness of alternative Cameron down, possibly hinting at a a shift in the balance of the Tories
They are actually measuring two different things - and you can't draw any conclusions on salience of the EU as a result
Reversion to the mean. There were stages in the last parliament when Cameron was less popular than his party.
There's little doubt that Cameron's deal with the EU has been received very badly, and thats affected his standing.
I've never held Cameron's Europhilia against him - the 'Right' is a very broad church indeed, and I've always thought of myself as a pragmatist. He's an effective speaker, looks the part and 'gets' government by cabinet. In comparison to his predecessors, he's head and shoulders above them.
However, having made little progress in his negotiations, he's thrown his good name away with the most lazy, transparent lies imaginable. I cannot believe that a man of his intelligence really believed he'd achieved much; for him then to repeatedly tout it as something major is an insult to his supporters.
Spot on. That should be printed a thousand times and each pinned around Downing Street.
I've never held Cameron's Europhilia against him - the 'Right' is a very broad church indeed, and I've always thought of myself as a pragmatist. He's an effective speaker, looks the part and 'gets' government by cabinet. In comparison to his predecessors, he's head and shoulders above them.
However, having made little progress in his negotiations, he's thrown his good name away with the most lazy, transparent lies imaginable. I cannot believe that a man of his intelligence really believed he'd achieved much; for him then to repeatedly tout it as something major is an insult to his supporters.
I've thought about this a lot recently.
I have always liked Cameron's domestic reform policy on schools, welfare, health and the family. On a personal level, I even liked him and whilst not an OE I personally identified with him as a fellow Shire Tory. I was (and still am) an enthusiastic supporter of the Big Society, liked Steve Hilton and admired the localism and devolution agenda.
Where Cameron has consistently let me down (and misled) has been on the EU. That goes right back to 2009 and his "cast iron" pledge, which did him damage before the GE2010 campaign, and on which he's consistently dithered, overpromised, retreated and then undershot the bar (pretending he hasn't) ever since.
I have also been reduced (on many an occasion) to burying my head in my hands with the ridiculous group-think on New-Labour lite social policy, and the barely disguised contempt those close to the leadership have for ordinary party members. But I've tolerated it up to now.
Whilst I was actually quite pleased with the first five months of this Government, I've been exasperated at how rapidly the Government has tacked Left since late September.
I blame Osborne almost entirely for that. And he's up to his neck in the EU policy too.
I think 'all' (ie not just those selected to attend the Lords) the LibDem heredity peers can vote to appoint which of them are the party representatives in the Lords. I assume there are more in total than just the 4 who attend the Lords.
I think it's only the members of the Lords, but again I could be wrong. I seem to remember a similar fuss when Earl Russell died and the three survivors had a horse-trade to work out who came next.
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
The latest Tory members poll has Liam Fox leading, whether he quite fits the bill you set out is another matter. The biggest beneficiaries of a narrow Remain vote are likely to be UKIP, especially if Cameron succeeds Osborne, they could be kingmakers in a hung parliament
Isn't that just a ConHome Voodoo Poll though? I've not been to that site for years - and have never voted in one of their polls.
They got the 2005 leadership result spot on so their polls cannot be dismissed, Fox is benefiting as he the most high-profile backer of Brexit so far
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
But you are assuming that the children will have the same allegiance as their parents.
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
No, we're talking about who gets place in House of Lords.
There were four LD hereditaries in the Lords. There are a whole host of other LD hereditaries not in the Lords - ie booted out by Blair in 1999.
When one of the hereditaries in the Lords dies, the others in the Lords (ie the three) vote on who comes in from the pool of people booted out in 1999 (or their successor if any of those titles has passed on).
But there is another interesting question:
Vote is under AV. What happens if three people get one vote each? Who is eliminated? Draw lots? It's a very likely scenario - there could well be quite a few candidates - very possible nobody gets two votes.
Is the real battle in Wales not for third place? The Tories seem to have pulled clear of Plaid in recent polling and at the General Election.
More likely fourth between UKIP and the LDs.
Whatever Farage says, however, it will be a very great surprise if UKIP get more than one seat (a list seat in Monmouthshire being the likeliest path).
The outcome will therefore almost certainly be a Labour/Plaid coalition. The question might be whether Leanne Wood might try and either take the first ministership herself or find a reasonably moderate figure from one party or the other to head it. She wouldn't find that easy, but I wouldn't put it past her to try.
Current polling suggests UKIP will win 13-17% of the List vote in Wales. If so, they'll win a whole chunk of List seats.
Unless they pile up a lot of decent constituency finishes as well, that will make no difference. And they won't. You saw at the general election how terrible their targeted campaigning is.
Bear in mind, quite a lot of that may be in the Valleys as a form of empty protest against Labour. Labour will still win the constituencies and Plaid most of the top ups.
Unless they make a major breakthrough in North Wales, the Wrexham area, they will get nothing for those votes.
I hadn't realised. They'll contest them this time, and gain the Additional Members.
So the LDs in the Lords are down three Peers in the last four days - with Shirley Williams and Baroness Linklater having retired on Thursday and Friday.
Avebury hadn't been voting recently - whereas Shirley and Linklater had been regular attendees.
New State of the Parties will be:
Con 250, Lab 213, LD 108, Crossbench 178
Correction - Avebury was hereditary so will be replaced. So LDs will stay at 109.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
As a matter of interest, what happens if all three die before they can vote?
The clue is in the word hereditary, there is a succession to the title.
I think Wanderer meant, who would decide which hereditaries with LD affiliations would replace them?
My guess is that there is no provision for that so they just lose their hereditaries. Remember, it was only meant to be temporary when it was put in place, never worked out in detail.
I think 'all' (ie not just those selected to attend the Lords) the LibDem heredity peers can vote to appoint which of them are the party representatives in the Lords. I assume there are more in total than just the 4 who attend the Lords.
No. The electorate is LD hereditaries in the Lords.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
You might be looking forward to quasi-fascism but having been in office for a decade, people will be getting tired of the Conservatives and naturally the election of this steroid-pumped Thatcherite and the implementation of his/her policies combined with the experience of defeat will likely push Labour (and other parties) back into the centre.
When said quasi-fascist's policies are shown to be the pile of nonsense we all know them to be, the Conservatives would suffer a defeat that would make 1997 look like a good result.
YAY.
I agree. After five years of Tory Coalition, three years of Cameron, and seven years of Mad Fascist Demagogue, I expect the UK would go back to centrist New New Labour in 2025.
But by then the country will have been changed, slavery reintroduced, immigration made illegal, poor people turned into weird energy-sources powering the homes of wealthy thriller writers with their tears, so it's all good.
Mad Fascist Demagogue would also leave an opening for the Left to reverse it, New Labour succeeded John Major's centrist Tory government, a more leftwing government would succeed Mad Fascist Demagogue. Not that I think that is likely anyway, most Mad Fascist Demagogue backers will be voting UKIP in 2020, not Tory!
I've never held Cameron's Europhilia against him - the 'Right' is a very broad church indeed, and I've always thought of myself as a pragmatist. He's an effective speaker, looks the part and 'gets' government by cabinet. In comparison to his predecessors, he's head and shoulders above them.
However, having made little progress in his negotiations, he's thrown his good name away with the most lazy, transparent lies imaginable. I cannot believe that a man of his intelligence really believed he'd achieved much; for him then to repeatedly tout it as something major is an insult to his supporters.
I've thought about this a lot recently.
I have always liked Cameron's domestic reform policy on schools, welfare, health and the family. On a personal level, I even liked him and whilst not an OE I personally identified with him as a fellow Shire Tory. I was (and still am) an enthusiastic supporter of the Big Society, liked Steve Hilton and admired the localism and devolution agenda.
Where Cameron has consistently let me down (and misled) has been on the EU. That goes right back to 2009 and his "cast iron" pledge, which did him damage before the GE2010 campaign, and on which he's consistently dithered, overpromised, retreated and then undershot the bar (pretending he hasn't) ever since.
I have also been reduced (on many an occasion) to burying my head in my hands with the ridiculous group-think on New-Labour lite social policy, and the barely disguised contempt those close to the leadership have for ordinary party members. But I've tolerated it up to now.
Whilst I was actually quite pleased with the first five months of this Government, I've been exasperated at how rapidly the Government has tacked Left since late September.
I blame Osborne almost entirely for that. And he's up to his neck in the EU policy too.
It seems that the scales have now dropped from lots of peoples' eyes.
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
The latest Tory members poll has Liam Fox leading, whether he quite fits the bill you set out is another matter. The biggest beneficiaries of a narrow Remain vote are likely to be UKIP, especially if Cameron succeeds Osborne, they could be kingmakers in a hung parliament
The fact that Liam Fox, despite all his obvious and massive flaws, can lead this shows what a boost Leave supporters can get. If May or Johnson or whoever else backed Leave I now think they would be a shoo-in for next leader. Even a telegenic minor fish like Patel would be in a strong position.
"She also revealed extraordinarily how Osborne’s wife had taunted her with lurid details of his sexual tastes, saying he enjoyed watching his wife have sex with other men.
The patient’s fear of Osborne is understandable: the tribunal heard how he sent menacing emails which threatened to ‘make her pay’ if she ever spoke out about the affair."
"We were in the car together and Osborne had told me that he wanted to destroy me. He told me how he liked to make women act like sluts and whores.
He scared me. Afterwards I tried to pull myself together but when Rahala emailed me and called me, I felt so dirty and small.
‘I did not want to live any more and the only way I could not feel the pain any more was not to exist. I decided to kill myself.’
She took a massive overdose of pills she says were prescribed by Osborne, and was saved only because she had a garbled exchange on Facebook with a friend living abroad. "
"When Erika refused to back down, he started to threaten her, saying: ‘If I get into trouble for this, then I will never forgive you and I will make sure you pay.’"
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
The latest Tory members poll has Liam Fox leading, whether he quite fits the bill you set out is another matter. The biggest beneficiaries of a narrow Remain vote are likely to be UKIP, especially if Cameron succeeds Osborne, they could be kingmakers in a hung parliament
The fact that Liam Fox, despite all his obvious and massive flaws, can lead this shows what a boost Leave supporters can get. If May or Johnson or whoever else backed Leave I now think they would be a shoo-in for next leader. Even a telegenic minor fish like Patel would be in a strong position.
AS I'VE BEEN SAYING FOR WEEKS.
If Bojo seizes the sceptic orb, he will surely be Tory leader. And this is his only real chance.
Yet he havers. Lacks the courage and self belief.
Perhaps because, given the chance to win the top job, he's decided he doesn't want it.
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
No, you miss my point.
Here's the way it could pan out.
Cameron has ruined his brand. He's gone, whatever. He might eke out a fake triumph in the referendum, and a big REMAIN win, but even then I reckon most Tories - and Tory voters, like my Mum - will now be fairly glad to see him exit, stage left. He's told too big a lie.
In the emotional backlash - and knowing full well that the country will never vote for Corbyn - I wonder if the Conservative party might then go for a full-blooded meat-eating baby-roasting steroid-pumped eurosceptic Thatcherite leader, who would then become prime minister, and win in 2020 (because, Corbyn). Giving us the most rightwing government in generations.
So the net effect of lefties having a spaz-out and electing the bearded tit is that the UK will go quasi-Fascist in 2020.
YAY.
The latest Tory members poll has Liam Fox leading, whether he quite fits the bill you set out is another matter. The biggest beneficiaries of a narrow Remain vote are likely to be UKIP, especially if Cameron succeeds Osborne, they could be kingmakers in a hung parliament
The fact that Liam Fox, despite all his obvious and massive flaws, can lead this shows what a boost Leave supporters can get. If May or Johnson or whoever else backed Leave I now think they would be a shoo-in for next leader. Even a telegenic minor fish like Patel would be in a strong position.
AS I'VE BEEN SAYING FOR WEEKS.
If Bojo seizes the sceptic orb, he will surely be Tory leader. And this is his only real chance.
Yet he havers. Lacks the courage and self belief.
Maybe he:
1) Supports Remain 2) Thinks Remain will win easily 3) Thinks that the issue will then go away, everyone who is getting massively over-excited will calm down and there will be a leadership election in 2019 when the vast majority of people will have moved on
Remember where the EU comes on MORI's issues index? Nowhere.
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Trump seriously messed up so by aggressively blaming 9/11 on Bush - at least before ST. He has to win the GOP first and remarks like that will turnout the anti-trumpers more than it will fire up his own core vote.
I feel dirty linking to the media operation of the NF/KKK, but here goes;
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Except Trump backed Iraq War at the time.
Not true.
His position was unknown before the war.
“The War in Iraq — I was the one that said, ‘Don’t go, don’t do it, you’re going to destabilize the Middle East,’ " Trump said. "So I’m not one with a trigger." Trump’s statement rates Mostly False. We only found one example of Trump commenting on the Iraq War before the invasion, and he seemed apprehensive but not vehemently opposed to the operation. He only started publicly denouncing the war after it started.
"She also revealed extraordinarily how Osborne’s wife had taunted her with lurid details of his sexual tastes, saying he enjoyed watching his wife have sex with other men.
The patient’s fear of Osborne is understandable: the tribunal heard how he sent menacing emails which threatened to ‘make her pay’ if she ever spoke out about the affair."
"We were in the car together and Osborne had told me that he wanted to destroy me. He told me how he liked to make women act like sluts and whores.
He scared me. Afterwards I tried to pull myself together but when Rahala emailed me and called me, I felt so dirty and small.
‘I did not want to live any more and the only way I could not feel the pain any more was not to exist. I decided to kill myself.’
She took a massive overdose of pills she says were prescribed by Osborne, and was saved only because she had a garbled exchange on Facebook with a friend living abroad. "
"When Erika refused to back down, he started to threaten her, saying: ‘If I get into trouble for this, then I will never forgive you and I will make sure you pay.’"
I have heard reliable stories about *** ******* himself which are quite hair raising. I think he has too much backstory to be leader. It's not just a one-off, it's a litany - from different sources. Tories elect him at their peril.
As I said earlier today its the Daily Mail.. how can you possibly know its been reported correctly and without any sensationalism..
But, oh dear, she's not happy now. "Cameron was doing so well, now he's lying to us about Europe. He's gone all weak. I don't understand it".
If he's losing soft centrist voters like my Mum he is in trouble
Is she going to vote for Corbyn?
Moving on...
Last time I looked Cameron wasn't planning to stand again. But he has a referendum coming up,,,,,
moving on.
During the EURef, Ozzybordias, King of Kings, will be warning about the economic dangers of Brexit, as we saw last May, the country trusts him on the economy, that's why the Tories won a majority.
tsk, the quality of click bait has really gone down on this site.
Wait until you see my thread next week, is especially for you.
I might not be around.
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Congratulations.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
According to Cameron at 10 Osborne was marginalised in the 2015 election, Crosby had complete control.
Sir Lynton's main message was 'Don't let Labour and the SNP ruin Osborne's economic miracle'
What economic miracle would that be? House prices soaring beyond the reach of anyone without the bank of mum and dad?
The lowest unemployment in a generation?
Only if the current generation cannot remember lower unemployment under Gordon Brown.
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Trump seriously messed up so by aggressively blaming 9/11 on Bush - at least before ST. He has to win the GOP first and remarks like that will turnout the anti-trumpers more than it will fire up his own core vote.
I feel dirty linking to the media operation of the NF/KKK, but here goes;
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Trump seriously messed up so by aggressively blaming 9/11 on Bush - at least before ST. He has to win the GOP first and remarks like that will turnout the anti-trumpers more than it will fire up his own core vote.
I feel dirty linking to the media operation of the NF/KKK, but here goes;
I think what was most interesting about the Trump Jeb clash was that it was clearly a dry run for a Trump Hilary debate in the Presidential. The line that the Iraq war was a horrific mistake and the troops should be brought home, with the money used to rebuild America instead, is the strongest line when polled with voters.
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
Trump seriously messed up so by aggressively blaming 9/11 on Bush - at least before ST. He has to win the GOP first and remarks like that will turnout the anti-trumpers more than it will fire up his own core vote.
I feel dirty linking to the media operation of the NF/KKK, but here goes;
@SeanT - that doesn't surprise me, I have heard one or two stories myself.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
Presumably not including voting for Jeremy Corbyn
I will campaign against him in any leadership election, vote against him, resign my membership if he wins and abstain or vote UKIP in any GE where he is up against Corbyn.
Comments
My daughter has announced her engagement.
I'm taking my bank balance out for one last drink before we part forever.
Bear in mind, quite a lot of that may be in the Valleys as a form of empty protest against Labour. Labour will still win the constituencies and Plaid most of the top ups.
Unless they make a major breakthrough in North Wales, the Wrexham area, they will get nothing for those votes.
The thread is 'Forget Cameron, it was Osborne who was responsible for the Tories winning a majority in May 2015, thanks to his stewardship of the economy'
All of these polls were taken in the last two weeks.
Because the members have no say in selecting the final two candidates.
MPs decide - and MPs' number 1 consideration is themselves - ie getting re-elected - and that means choosing someone who looks like a winner.
They know what happened when they put IDS in the final two. And they know what happened when Labour MPs nominated Corbyn.
They will ensure that both finalists are suitable for GE 2020.
I thought that Labour had done well for the last three weeks. Corbyn has said nothing and the government has had to deal with the doc strike ,EU negotiations and Google tax. But when you look beneath the surface at long term opinion within the country Labours problem is immense. How do you solve a problem like the leader?
Conservatives on here not surprisingly drooling over the ComRes numbers though whether it's a clear trend or an outlier remains to be seen.
Two things are always clear in politics - first, nothing lasts forever and second, nature abhors a vacuum. An effective and coherent opposition to the Conservatives will emerge which combined with the stresses and strains of a long period in Government, will ultimately lead to the downfall and defeat of the Conservatives.
We are nine months into a sixty month electoral cycle. That's an eternity for things to change and events to conspire to produce change.
As to the "future" of Labour, the party has changed and evolved on any number of occasions but the ComRes figures (and others) show the clear task facing any emerging opposition to the Conservatives. Not only do they have to come up with policies to convince older people but, given many of these older people are parents, grand parents or even great grand parents, policies for families have to be paramount as well.
The opening line of the thread is
The Tories winning a majority in 2015 was much like an orgy, you're never quite sure who to thank afterwards.
Fantastic ComRes poll. I see that, as I predicted, the loud wailing from the Docs has had no effect on actual VI!
Combined with this oldies subsample and the boundaries review, it is looking increasingly difficult for any Labour leader to beat any Conservative leader. Suggests to me that it might to time to ease out of the usual laying of the favourite mentality re: Osborne.
I could almost even see him take over if there was a leave vote - taking hard choices, no time for a change in a crisis etc.
The Lib Dems won 4 list seats with 8% in 2011 . UKIP will do better than that.
Peil has radically different results from all the other pollsters: Ipsos has him having a 4% lead (7 seats), and I&O less than 1% (1 seat). Peil may be right, of course. But it is worth noting that every other pollster has the PVV quite considerably lower.
Nevertheless, the PVV being on 25-30% is a very strong showing and on those seat numbers would result in Gert being the next Dutch PM, probably with rather passive support from the CU/CDA and VVD.
WOHA! Huge convoys of tanks & armored vehicles seen heading from #Kuwait to north #Saudi early today.. #Syria https://t.co/Y8FyXupyH4
Peil dominates the Wikipedia table because it has the most polls, but their polls are rather out of whack with the others. (Which doesn't mean they are wrong.)
I do find it amusing, though, that PVV supporters are massively more Euro-enthusiastic than even the LibDems. I think it's all about Islamic immigration there.
However, having made little progress in his negotiations, he's thrown his good name away with the most lazy, transparent lies imaginable. I cannot believe that a man of his intelligence really believed he'd achieved much; for him then to repeatedly tout it as something major is an insult to his supporters.
Bizarre election coming - there were only four LD hereditaries, Avebury has now gone so that leaves three. So the election will have an electorate of three!
It is amusing, particularly since Gilders wants to return to the guilder and withdraw from the EU, but it has been much more successful in broadening the base of its appeal than many other right-wing parties in continental Europe.
For instance, it self describes itself as humanistic and is quite strongly supported in both the LGBT and Jewish communities.
Either you're caught out by events, or you develop a tin ear towards the voters.
Just looked up train prices from London to St Ives in Cornwall. Return is £108. Splitting the journey by going via Bristol is £72. They ought to give that option to begin with instead of assuming you want to get there as fast as possible without changing.
I don't think many PVV voters are attracted by their economic views: integrating people with very different cultures that is the issue.
When said quasi-fascist's policies are shown to be the pile of nonsense we all know them to be, the Conservatives would suffer a defeat that would make 1997 look like a good result.
YAY.
I understand there are those close to Osborne who want to make the situation worse by further "modernising" the Conservative position on immigration.
When the rugs falls out from under them (and it will) it will fall out very quickly.
The assumption is that any such party that gained power - or threatened to - would suffer a catastrophic defeat at the hands of the electorate in response to this rhetoric.
But it's just as likely you provoke the ire of the electorate by insulting them and their intelligence.
My guess is that there is no provision for that so they just lose their hereditaries. Remember, it was only meant to be temporary when it was put in place, never worked out in detail.
Wilders, if he's pitching for the PM's role will also have to ally with very pro-European parties, and also needs to recognise that his own supporters are much more pro-EU than him. What I would expect is an essential halt to Islamic immigration to the Netherlands.
The MET are still putting a lot of faith in "Nick" account, despite even his own family saying he is a fantasist and no evidence to back up his claims other than he correctly described some details of interior of some private military premises.
I do hope the investigators are aware of techniques like cold reading when it comes to people describing things like this. Given how the plod dealt with the allegations against William Roache it makes you wonder about their training. Not sure which bit of the handbook says, yes get their husband to sit in on an interview and answer all the questions for their wife.
Is it really too much to ask that they hire someone with a basic grasp of mathematics to work on their strategy?
I have always liked Cameron's domestic reform policy on schools, welfare, health and the family. On a personal level, I even liked him and whilst not an OE I personally identified with him as a fellow Shire Tory. I was (and still am) an enthusiastic supporter of the Big Society, liked Steve Hilton and admired the localism and devolution agenda.
Where Cameron has consistently let me down (and misled) has been on the EU. That goes right back to 2009 and his "cast iron" pledge, which did him damage before the GE2010 campaign, and on which he's consistently dithered, overpromised, retreated and then undershot the bar (pretending he hasn't) ever since.
I have also been reduced (on many an occasion) to burying my head in my hands with the ridiculous group-think on New-Labour lite social policy, and the barely disguised contempt those close to the leadership have for ordinary party members. But I've tolerated it up to now.
Whilst I was actually quite pleased with the first five months of this Government, I've been exasperated at how rapidly the Government has tacked Left since late September.
I blame Osborne almost entirely for that. And he's up to his neck in the EU policy too.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/hillary-clinton-and-the-s_b_9231190.html?utm_hp_ref=yahoo&ir=Yahoo
Not only would Trump have the standing and courage to crucify her on Iraq, but he would also go after her on Syria, Libya and Benghazi. As Jeffrey Sachs points out in the article linked to, she is up to her neck in Syria. I can only imagine how brutal it would be, and it is why Hilary lost to Obama, and it will be why she will lose to Trump. That is if Sanders doesn't get the guts to bury her first.
There were four LD hereditaries in the Lords. There are a whole host of other LD hereditaries not in the Lords - ie booted out by Blair in 1999.
When one of the hereditaries in the Lords dies, the others in the Lords (ie the three) vote on who comes in from the pool of people booted out in 1999 (or their successor if any of those titles has passed on).
But there is another interesting question:
Vote is under AV. What happens if three people get one vote each? Who is eliminated? Draw lots? It's a very likely scenario - there could well be quite a few candidates - very possible nobody gets two votes.
@paul_pwilson: Nigel Farage accepts Alex Salmond's challenge for a TV debate on EU membership
https://t.co/myTNuSueNB https://t.co/jfsJ0Pg7SO
"She also revealed extraordinarily how Osborne’s wife had taunted her with lurid details of his sexual tastes, saying he enjoyed watching his wife have sex with other men.
The patient’s fear of Osborne is understandable: the tribunal heard how he sent menacing emails which threatened to ‘make her pay’ if she ever spoke out about the affair."
"We were in the car together and Osborne had told me that he wanted to destroy me. He told me how he liked to make women act like sluts and whores.
He scared me. Afterwards I tried to pull myself together but when Rahala emailed me and called me, I felt so dirty and small.
‘I did not want to live any more and the only way I could not feel the pain any more was not to exist. I decided to kill myself.’
She took a massive overdose of pills she says were prescribed by Osborne, and was saved only because she had a garbled exchange on Facebook with a friend living abroad. "
"When Erika refused to back down, he started to threaten her, saying: ‘If I get into trouble for this, then I will never forgive you and I will make sure you pay.’"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3446003/Victim-George-Osborne-s-psychiatrist-brother-tells-sex-family-home.html
1) Supports Remain
2) Thinks Remain will win easily
3) Thinks that the issue will then go away, everyone who is getting massively over-excited will calm down and there will be a leadership election in 2019 when the vast majority of people will have moved on
Remember where the EU comes on MORI's issues index? Nowhere.
I will do everything in my power to stop him becoming Tory leader, and PM.
I feel dirty linking to the media operation of the NF/KKK, but here goes;
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/14/trumps-attack-on-911-strategy-or-conspiracy/
"To conservative critics, Trump’s comments on 9/11 made him sound like a Democrat."
Ouch.
His position was unknown before the war.
“The War in Iraq — I was the one that said, ‘Don’t go, don’t do it, you’re going to destabilize the Middle East,’ " Trump said. "So I’m not one with a trigger."
Trump’s statement rates Mostly False.
We only found one example of Trump commenting on the Iraq War before the invasion, and he seemed apprehensive but not vehemently opposed to the operation. He only started publicly denouncing the war after it started.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-who-won-the-cbs-news-republican-debate-2016/