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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GOP nomination race is effectively now down to just 5

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    SeanT said:

    This is a must read for undecided and Leavers from Sarah Wollaston http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4686865.ece

    They could do a lot worse than appoint her the Leader of Vote Leave tomorrow. A smart, sensible, centrist Tory woman, and a doctor. Pretty much perfect. Clearly in command of the facts, as well.

    Agreed.

    Also, isn't she the only MP in the house to be selected via an open primary?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How can Jeb Bush coming fourth with 11% be described by anyone as a "good result"?
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    This is a must read for undecided and Leavers from Sarah Wollaston http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4686865.ece

    For those who won't pay the Murdoch shilling - Wollaston also wrote on her blog:

    http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/

    After two initial very condescending comments, the rest seem much more supportive
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mortimer said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a must read for undecided and Leavers from Sarah Wollaston http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4686865.ece

    They could do a lot worse than appoint her the Leader of Vote Leave tomorrow. A smart, sensible, centrist Tory woman, and a doctor. Pretty much perfect. Clearly in command of the facts, as well.

    Agreed.

    Also, isn't she the only MP in the house to be selected via an open primary?
    She's the only one to be selected by an open primary in which a significant percentage of the local electorate participated. In all the others turnout was embarrassingly low: Rochester & Strood for example, where the Tories tried to hide the turnout figure because it was so poor.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    AndyJS said:

    How can Jeb Bush coming fourth with 11% be described by anyone as a "good result"?

    Thats what I was trying to work out as I stared at Betfair last night as he plummeted to 5.6 (And probably sent my whole book well below water at that point).

    I think in fairness it was an OK result for Jeb in that he finished above Marco. But yes, not great - he only matched his RCP average.

    Chris Christie won't be at the next debate though, so Rubio may well do better. He'll need to think of some new lines though !
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966


    Don't panic Mr Indigo! You will speak for England (albeit from the Philippines).

    Yes, even better my LEAVE vote will cancel out your REMAIN vote ;)

    I was actually supposed to be back in the UK before Christmas, however a slight hiccup means that is looking like some when 3Q now.

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The first, second, and third worlds based on HDI for 2015. https://t.co/RBrp9tw3sw https://t.co/qTVTWcGCSA
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    This is a must read for undecided and Leavers from Sarah Wollaston http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4686865.ece

    For those who won't pay the Murdoch shilling - Wollaston also wrote on her blog:

    http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/

    After two initial very condescending comments, the rest seem much more supportive
    For an MP like Sarah Wollaston to favour Leave is quite a boost to the Leave campaign, IMHO.
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    SeanT said:

    This is bleak beyond description. A resident of Calais speaks out.

    https://deltakyklos.wordpress.com/2016/02/08/calais-situation-video-transcript/

    A French acquaintance of mine has relatives living in Calais. She told me how bleak life is for those living in Calais. The roads leading in and out are often closed due to "migrant activity" so people feel they can never go anywhere. Lots of businesses are closing down because the tourist trade has been so badly affected so people are losing jobs and livelihoods. And that is without going into the general feeling of fear caused by the behaviour of certain migrant groups and their "supporters".
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    Sean_F said:

    This is a must read for undecided and Leavers from Sarah Wollaston http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4686865.ece

    For those who won't pay the Murdoch shilling - Wollaston also wrote on her blog:

    http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/

    After two initial very condescending comments, the rest seem much more supportive
    For an MP like Sarah Wollaston to favour Leave is quite a boost to the Leave campaign, IMHO.
    Finally. A grown up.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump got 10 out of 16 N.H. delegates with 35%.
    In S.Carolina he gets 29 delegates if he wins and 3 per congressional district, so potentially all 50 delegates.

    http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/13/full-simulation-of-gop-nomination-rules/

    If Trump keeps winning and gets more than 30% of the vote he will get the delegates necessary much earlier than anticipated.

    However lets not forget, there is still a debate before the S.Carolina vote, and we don't know the impact of Iowa and N.H. although I guess that they cancelled each other out.

    One thing that is striking though is the consistency of Trump underperforming with late deciders, 48% of those who had already decided (around 55-60%) voted for him compared with 22% of late deciders, better than in Iowa but still the same big gap, although if even no late deciders voted for him he still would have got 26% in N.H.

    That gives me an idea that Trump's chances are best in states where he already had a high stable number, in Iowa he polled usually at 25, in N.H. at 27.5, in S.Carolina 33.
    And unlike Iowa, he never got a close rival in either N.H. or S.Carolina polling.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited February 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Looking at last nights results its clear that Trump will win the GOP nomination. He'll then easily beat Hillary in the general. Only way to stop Trump is for Hillary to drop out and for a brokered convention to draft in someone else (no idea who TBH).

    In more exciting news Gillmore not just has passed the three digit milestone but sits smugly on a pile of 151 votes. It's ON!

    The surge is on.

    Will he try to stay in the race till Virginia primary?
    That is a 1200% increase in voters since Iowa!!! Look for the trend to continue, with 18,000 votes in SC and 216,000 in NV... ;)

    Oops, got an extra 0 in there. 1,800 and 21,600. So no wins until Super Tuesday when he sweeps all before him.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Steve Baker
    .@johnredwood says if you are in car with a driver you don't trust, heading to a place you don't want to go, get out
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,126
    Speedy said:

    One thing that is striking though is the consistency of Trump underperforming with late deciders, 48% of those who had already decided (around 55-60%) voted for him compared with 22% of late deciders, better than in Iowa but still the same big gap, although if even no late deciders voted for him he still would have got 26% in N.H.

    I'm not sure that's particularly relevant. When it comes to the undecided, the baseline should be a random allocation between the candidates. If Trump is outperforming this measure then he's doing fine.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''This is bleak beyond description. A resident of Calais speaks out.''

    When you see what elected representatives in the West are prepared to do to their own citizens its hardly surprising people such as Trump are in the frame to get elected.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    malcolmg said:

    OchEye said:

    malcolmg


    Er! sorry for the delay Malkie, had some work to do.


    Remember, it was the 20 odd SNP supporters who clyped on her, if they hadn't, they could have been due for prison time. I have been surprised at how unpopular McGarry is amongst SNP members, but not, for some reason, amongst the hierarchy.

    As to Thomson, even Sturgeon as a practised solicitor, and with even a small amount of conveying experience could see Thomson was not just skating on thin ice, she was trying to walk on water with concrete boots on. PS, the Procurator Fiscal, the Legal Society and the SG are dancing around each other. Again, Anwar would not be doing his job if he could not cause a bit of confusion and delay things until after May.

    I agree Thomson was sailing close to the wind law wise and pretty crap morals wise but been lots of lawyers at same game , she obviously learned that from a Tory. Distasteful as it is she did it with willing sellers , they were not forced to sell at gunpoint. Buying low from someone foolish enough or desperate enough to sell is not a crime. Most of them would likely have got zero when they were evicted or non payment in any event.
    McGarry I have no idea, I think that whole group all thought they were something special and having fallen out certain cliques are finger pointing. Sounds like they were just absolute crap at admin and accounting, whilst busy playing bigshots, for the money they spent.
    Aw! Bless. Thomson is involved in possible fraud on the mortgage providers, solicitors act on the instructions of the clients, they may wish to advise on legal arguments but at the end, they follow the instructions. Once, possibly twice could be considered incompetence, thirteen times unfortunately, looks decidedly questionable.

    How you know that she got the idea from a Tory, I have no idea. Otherwise are you trying to deflect away to the possibility that she was unable to think up the process herself? Not very flattering to the checking procedures put in place by Peter Murrell on the SNP PPC's either, but on second thoughts...

    McGarry is much more simpler. I have used PayPal for more than 10 years, and it is very easy to get a print out of the money coming in and leaving it, and more importantly, to where. All transactions are timed. Bank statements will be able to match the money coming in or leaving. McGarry obviously doesn't want anyone to see either.

    Perhaps some curious journalist might like to enquire of PayPal what the delay is in providing information to PS. There should be a trail if there is any form of requested legal delay or injunction. Could be interesting to see the results. Or if there is a Super injunction in place in the UK.
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    Steve Baker
    .@johnredwood says if you are in car with a driver you don't trust, heading to a place you don't want to go, get out

    I do hope they do a remix of the Prodigy single to go with this tweet.
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    LEAVE = Believe in Britain
    REMAIN = Believe in Brussels

    I believe in Britain.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Tory MP admits he has moved back into his parent's home to save up for a deposit
    William Wragg MP has said he is part of a ‘boomerang generation' of young people unable to get on the property ladder, despite earning £74,000 as a Member of Parliament"


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/12150280/Tory-MP-admits-he-has-moved-back-into-his-parents-home-to-save-up-for-a-deposit.html
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I do hope they do a remix of the Prodigy single to go with this tweet. ''

    OUT could do an amazing ad along the lines of the type you see at christmas advising people not to take dodgy cabs.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    Because the dispute is completely about pay. The Conservatives have plonked great wads of cash into the health service, the official statistics make this very clear.

    Why can't the doctors just be honest that it is about pay and not safety ?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,388
    edited February 2016
    AndyJS said:

    How can Jeb Bush coming fourth with 11% be described by anyone as a "good result"?

    Same as Rubio coming third in Iowa was supposed to be a "good" result!
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Why can't the doctors just be honest that it is about pay and not safety ?''

    I reckon the fanatical support for the NHS is starting to peel away. Just read the Guardian threads on this topic. People are more open to something like the arrangements they have on the continent.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    taffys said:

    ''Why can't the doctors just be honest that it is about pay and not safety ?''

    I reckon the fanatical support for the NHS is starting to peel away. Just read the Guardian threads on this topic. People are more open to something like the arrangements they have on the continent.

    Great idea. You should make it a centre piece of the Leave campaign actually.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    AndyJS said:

    How can Jeb Bush coming fourth with 11% be described by anyone as a "good result"?

    Same as Rubio coming third in Iowa was supposed to be a "good" result!
    I get the feeling alot of people in the media don't particularly like either Cruz or Trump.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,197
    AndyJS said:

    "Tory MP admits he has moved back into his parent's home to save up for a deposit
    William Wragg MP has said he is part of a ‘boomerang generation' of young people unable to get on the property ladder, despite earning £74,000 as a Member of Parliament"


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/12150280/Tory-MP-admits-he-has-moved-back-into-his-parents-home-to-save-up-for-a-deposit.html

    Ugh. Another MP who's (just) younger than me. What I don't get is why hasn't he been living at home with his parents anyway to save up for a deposit? I suppose he gets his constituency home and living back home with the parents now he's an MP won't feel quite as bad as he won't be going home to them every evening.
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    AndyJS said:

    "Tory MP admits he has moved back into his parent's home to save up for a deposit
    William Wragg MP has said he is part of a ‘boomerang generation' of young people unable to get on the property ladder, despite earning £74,000 as a Member of Parliament"


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/12150280/Tory-MP-admits-he-has-moved-back-into-his-parents-home-to-save-up-for-a-deposit.html

    I guess he will need a big deposit for the sort of house he will want. But surely this merely demonstrates some sanity is back in the housing market. A large income that can afford a mortgage does not equal available cash for a deposit.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The polls had another bad night. They forecast a 13 point win for Sanders and it was actually 22.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/
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    AndyJS said:

    The polls had another bad night. They forecast a 13 point win for Sanders and it was actually 22.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/

    No one cares when it's a landslide, do they? Yet the error is the same.
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    LEAVE = Believe in Britain
    REMAIN = Believe in Brussels

    I believe in Britain.

    Since I've got tickets to Brussels this weekend, I'd better start believing in it...
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Oh my. Bernie's quotes come back to haunt him

    @Conservative_VW woman should be careful around him. https://t.co/M8dMuJaUe7
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    One aspect of the GOP race that's perhaps been underestimated is the vast sums the 'establishment' candidates are spending to come third fourth or fifth. In NH establishment spending was 20x that of anti-establishment, for example.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    AndyJS said:

    The polls had another bad night. They forecast a 13 point win for Sanders and it was actually 22.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/

    No one cares when it's a landslide, do they? Yet the error is the same.
    The polls weren't too bad on the Republican side.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
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    I actually think that The Donald may be the Republican Party's best bet, with the exception of perhaps Kasich. Cruz is a hardcore right-wing evangelical with little appeal beyond his own base, Rubio is an untested bottler and Jeb is a Bush. The Donald may not be personally popular with most Americans but I can see a lot of people voting for him without actually liking him very much, as was the case with Thatcher. Most people didn't like Ed Miliband very much but more would have voted Labour had he given the impression of being a strong leader.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "The chairman of the Conference of Interior Ministers, Saarland Interior Minister Klaus Bouillon (CDU), warned of riots and social unrest because of the refugee crisis"

    http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article152050280/Sehe-inneren-Frieden-in-unserem-Land-wirklich-in-Gefahr.html
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    taffys said:

    One aspect of the GOP race that's perhaps been underestimated is the vast sums the 'establishment' candidates are spending to come third fourth or fifth. In NH establishment spending was 20x that of anti-establishment, for example.

    Bush apparently spent $36 million in New Hampshire. That works out at about $1,000 per vote won.
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    Good afternoon, everyone.
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    LEAVE = Believe in Britain
    REMAIN = Believe in Brussels

    I believe in Britain.

    Since I've got tickets to Brussels this weekend, I'd better start believing in it...
    I already went there last Easter, but to only change trains for Amsterdam :)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Oh my. Bernie's quotes come back to haunt him

    @Conservative_VW woman should be careful around him. https://t.co/M8dMuJaUe7

    Just Snopesed that

    Here is the full spiel:

    "A man goes home and masturbates his typical fantasy. A woman on her knees, a woman tied up, a woman abused.

    A woman enjoys intercourse with her man — as she fantasizes being raped by 3 men simultaneously.

    The man and woman get dressed up on Sunday — and go to Church, or maybe to their 'revolutionary' political meeting.

    Have you ever looked at the Stag, Man, Hero, Tough magazines on the shelf of your local bookstore? Do you know why the newspaper with the articles like 'Girl 12 raped by 14 men' sell so well? To what in us are they appealing?"
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    It reminds me of the school sportsday scene in Decline & Fall where the Welsh band are playing Men of Harlech interminably, because the only other pieces they know are religious and it would be blasphemous to play religious music in the presence of a lady who is smoking. As the leader of the band explains:

    "But no man can you ask against his Maker to blaspheme whatever unless him to pay more you were. Three pounds for the music is good and one for the blasphemy look you"
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    edited February 2016
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    "The chairman of the Conference of Interior Ministers, Saarland Interior Minister Klaus Bouillon (CDU), warned of riots and social unrest because of the refugee crisis"

    http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article152050280/Sehe-inneren-Frieden-in-unserem-Land-wirklich-in-Gefahr.html

    "Women, children, Christians, gays, flee violence and persecution in refugee centres across Germany"

    http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article152043117/Frauen-und-Christen-fluechten-aus-den-Unterkuenften.html
    Looks like those warning against mass migration keep up their 50 year record of being 100% right
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    This is bleak beyond description. A resident of Calais speaks out.

    https://deltakyklos.wordpress.com/2016/02/08/calais-situation-video-transcript/

    Frightening.
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    Interesting analysis of how Putin lost Ukraine:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2016/02/how-vladimir-putin-lost-ukraine
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    With Valentine’s Day approaching on Sunday, Jeremy Corbyn offered David Cameron some rosies.

    Rosie had written to the Labour leader complaining she couldn’t afford a house. This puzzled MPs.

    After all Labour Chief Whip Rosie Winterton was sitting only feet away from Corbyn. Had relations between them disintegrated to such an extent they had stopped talking and started writing to each other?

    “When I get a letter from the Chief Whip it normally spells trouble,” said Cameron.

    Corbyn attempted to clear up the confusion. He said, somewhat ungallantly, that his Rosie was in her 20s while Labour’s Rosie...well.....wasn’t.


    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/pmqs-sketch-jeremy-corbyn-tells-7344515
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    Because the dispute is completely about pay. The Conservatives have plonked great wads of cash into the health service, the official statistics make this very clear.

    Why can't the doctors just be honest that it is about pay and not safety ?
    Also, since Junior Doctors working shorter hours are gaining less experience, will they be taking longer to qualify and advance up the career ladder?
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    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    The polls had another bad night. They forecast a 13 point win for Sanders and it was actually 22.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/

    No one cares when it's a landslide, do they? Yet the error is the same.
    The polls weren't too bad on the Republican side.
    Trump still out by 4. I'll give them a bit of a pass on Rubio given the debate. Of course primaries are intrinsically tricky to poll, especially open ones.
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    Sean_F said:

    This is a must read for undecided and Leavers from Sarah Wollaston http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4686865.ece

    For those who won't pay the Murdoch shilling - Wollaston also wrote on her blog:

    http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/

    After two initial very condescending comments, the rest seem much more supportive
    For an MP like Sarah Wollaston to favour Leave is quite a boost to the Leave campaign, IMHO.
    Finally. A grown up.
    I agree. Better than the clowns and nutjobs dominating previously...
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Tykejohnno...coming to a town near us..and that means everyone in the UK..
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    Another top general executed in North Korea:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35543364
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    SeanT said:

    This is bleak beyond description. A resident of Calais speaks out.

    https://deltakyklos.wordpress.com/2016/02/08/calais-situation-video-transcript/

    Frightening.
    Calais is a horrible place. Having seen first hand the gangs of immigrants swarming in the roads surrounding the Eurotunnel Terminal at night, it's only a matter of time before something quite horrific happens to a car load of innocent holidaymakers.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Tykejohnno...coming to a town near us..and that means everyone in the UK..

    I can see already small similarities where I live,just this weekend my mate was racially abused and attacked by a gang from a certain culture from Eastern Europe who were high as a kite,lucky for him,he can handle himself.
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    AndyJS said:

    How can Jeb Bush coming fourth with 11% be described by anyone as a "good result"?

    Same as Rubio coming third in Iowa was supposed to be a "good" result!
    Firstly, because NH and Iowa are relatively poor approximations of the country - on the GOP side Iowa is dominated by evangelicals and NH tends to get behind an idiosyncratic candidate. Therefore it's all about showing viability and not tanking. Normally that means a top two spot, but the two winners have been candidate s who are unacceptable to the party elites. The other person to have come second, Kasich, would've been a great candidate a decade ago but is likely to get massacred in the south and is unacceptable to the tea partiers whose turn it is next. As a result, there's an opening for an establishment candidate who can unite the party with nods to conservatives.

    That's now Jeb or Rubio, and Jeb was dead if he lost to Rubio in NH. Therefore it's a win by emerging from the a gun battle wounded but alive. The problem now for the GOP is that Rubio and Jeb are likely to turn their guns on each other, while Cruz heads to places which should be better turf and Trump is Trump.

    Who knows, but if Rubio came a decent third or second, Jeb was finished, therefore it's a win.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Love this detail. Sanders' victory danced to Talking Heads' "Burning down the House" Surely, Bernie-ing down the House of Clinton?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    I'm convinced the polls are still understating Leave - yet to find anyone enthusiastic for the EU.

    Just like Ed Miliband's Labour....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Cameron is losing his referendum. The immigration thing is killing him. It won't get any better.

    What are the odds he postpones, now?

    He needs to find a good reason for postponing. "I might not win" probably won't cut it.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I'm convinced the polls are still understating Leave - yet to find anyone enthusiastic for the EU.

    Maybe, but the big 'don;t know' segment might break heavily for IN.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    SeanT said:

    Et voila

    @britainelects 1m1 minute ago
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 41% (-1)
    Leave: 42% (+3)
    (via ICM / 05 - 07 Feb)

    Is that on the phones ?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Et voila

    @britainelects 1m1 minute ago
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 41% (-1)
    Leave: 42% (+3)
    (via ICM / 05 - 07 Feb)

    Is that on the phones ?
    I don't think so, Ipsos Mori and ComRes are usually the two firms doing phone polls.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The Fix
    Make no mistake: Bernie Sanders's win in New Hampshire was historically massive https://t.co/kLQ7Gal0ui https://t.co/HwBJLBfmHJ
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron is losing his referendum. The immigration thing is killing him. It won't get any better.

    What are the odds he postpones, now?

    He needs to find a good reason for postponing. "I might not win" probably won't cut it.
    Manufacture some enormous row. He's already tried FEAR, and it hasn't worked.
    The Remainians* are approaching full panic mode. Time for a vow.


    * (c) Liam Fox
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034


    AndyJS said:

    How can Jeb Bush coming fourth with 11% be described by anyone as a "good result"?

    Same as Rubio coming third in Iowa was supposed to be a "good" result!
    Firstly, because NH and Iowa are relatively poor approximations of the country - on the GOP side Iowa is dominated by evangelicals and NH tends to get behind an idiosyncratic candidate. Therefore it's all about showing viability and not tanking. Normally that means a top two spot, but the two winners have been candidate s who are unacceptable to the party elites. The other person to have come second, Kasich, would've been a great candidate a decade ago but is likely to get massacred in the south and is unacceptable to the tea partiers whose turn it is next. As a result, there's an opening for an establishment candidate who can unite the party with nods to conservatives.

    That's now Jeb or Rubio, and Jeb was dead if he lost to Rubio in NH. Therefore it's a win by emerging from the a gun battle wounded but alive. The problem now for the GOP is that Rubio and Jeb are likely to turn their guns on each other, while Cruz heads to places which should be better turf and Trump is Trump.

    Who knows, but if Rubio came a decent third or second, Jeb was finished, therefore it's a win.
    Exactly - it's about how the result fits with the narrative of that candidate's route to the nomination, no how the result fits in a horse race in that state.

    FWIW, while NH is NOT (not) representative of the GOP primaries nationally, it is very representative of the electorate at the General.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron is losing his referendum. The immigration thing is killing him. It won't get any better.

    What are the odds he postpones, now?

    He needs to find a good reason for postponing. "I might not win" probably won't cut it.
    Manufacture some enormous row. He's already tried FEAR, and it hasn't worked.
    The Remainians* are approaching full panic mode. Time for a vow.


    * (c) Liam Fox
    Perhaps Cameron can etch the commitments he has received from the EU on an 8 foot monolith?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Nice graphic

    This is ICM's first lead for Leave since May 2013... https://t.co/uYPud2DYLv #EUref #EUreferendum
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    Mr. T, but what's he going to do with the other seven and a half feet?
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Tykejohnno..It is already happening in West Yorkshire..My daughter is verbally threatened with rape and worse every night as she walks past an Indian Takeaway shop on her way home in a very small village...the shop is a gathering point for a gang of young Bangladeshi youths who virtually run the village.The police tell her to ignore them...Retribution is fast approaching as the local RU club is getting seriously peed off..I wonder what the Police will do then.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983

    Tykejohnno..It is already happening in West Yorkshire..My daughter is verbally threatened with rape and worse every night as she walks past an Indian Takeaway shop on her way home in a very small village...the shop is a gathering point for a gang of young Bangladeshi youths who virtually run the village.The police tell her to ignore them...Retribution is fast approaching as the local RU club is getting seriously peed off..I wonder what the Police will do then.

    If only someone had predicted this would happen before it was too late...
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    The Fix
    Make no mistake: Bernie Sanders's win in New Hampshire was historically massive https://t.co/kLQ7Gal0ui https://t.co/HwBJLBfmHJ


    I love that Chris Cillizza has this right under his picture: "One of the dumber and least respected of the political pundits. -- Donald Trump"

    I can never quite place him on the political spectrum. Until this cycle, he was reliably left of centre. This cycle, he has had it in for Hillary from the start, hates Trump, but does not seem taken with Bernie either.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Nice graphic

    This is ICM's first lead for Leave since May 2013... https://t.co/uYPud2DYLv #EUref #EUreferendum

    It's all froth.

    No one is interested in Europe. (c) Alistair 'On the fence' Meeks.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    SeanT said:

    Et voila

    @britainelects 1m1 minute ago
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 41% (-1)
    Leave: 42% (+3)
    (via ICM / 05 - 07 Feb)

    Remain led 44/38 with ICM at the start of January.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Mr. T, but what's he going to do with the other seven and a half feet?

    LOL
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    That's why I like him. He's also very funny.
    MTimT said:

    The Fix
    Make no mistake: Bernie Sanders's win in New Hampshire was historically massive https://t.co/kLQ7Gal0ui https://t.co/HwBJLBfmHJ


    I love that Chris Cillizza has this right under his picture: "One of the dumber and least respected of the political pundits. -- Donald Trump"

    I can never quite place him on the political spectrum. Until this cycle, he was reliably left of centre. This cycle, he has had it in for Hillary from the start, hates Trump, but does not seem taken with Bernie either.
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    Mr. Dodd, I hope she's alright.

    If the authorities, whether police or politicians, won't do anything, then people will look elsewhere for safety (or retribution).
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''This was so very definitely NOT what they expected. ''

    We are an ungrateful lot, aren;t we? look at that nice renegotiation they did for us. They worked all day on that. Just for us. And that's how we repay them.

    Honestly, who do we think we are?
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    Would a reputable poster who thinks that David Cameron is going to postpone the referendum care to craft a bet where I could take the other side?
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    Mr. T, I think you're getting a bit carried away. The referendum is likely, but not certain, to be in June. We've still got months of scare stories to get through.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Would a reputable poster who thinks that David Cameron is going to postpone the referendum care to craft a bet where I could take the other side?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739910 there you go :)
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    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron is losing his referendum. The immigration thing is killing him. It won't get any better.

    What are the odds he postpones, now?

    He needs to find a good reason for postponing. "I might not win" probably won't cut it.
    Manufacture some enormous row. He's already tried FEAR, and it hasn't worked.
    The Remainians* are approaching full panic mode. Time for a vow.


    * (c) Liam Fox
    Clever.

    I doubt Fox thought of it himself......I wonder if Gove fed it to him.....
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    SeanT said:

    Cameron is losing his referendum. The immigration thing is killing him. It won't get any better.

    What are the odds he postpones, now?

    Clearly "Vote Remain or Kent Gets It!" didn't work.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Would a reputable poster who thinks that David Cameron is going to postpone the referendum care to craft a bet where I could take the other side?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739910 there you go :)
    I was hoping that one of the sillier hysterical ninnies would offer me considerably better odds over a rather shorter time horizon.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Would a reputable poster who thinks that David Cameron is going to postpone the referendum care to craft a bet where I could take the other side?

    Betfair have a 2 horse before or after July 2016 market

    Before is 1.11 - 1.48
    After is 3.05 to 10.5

    You can also bet on whether in this parly

    Yes 1.04-1.05
    No 17.5- 26

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    SeanT said:

    They must be absolutely crapping it, in Downing Street, around about now.

    This was so very definitely NOT what they expected.

    To be fair, they couldn't have expected Merkel, who had run Germany fairly competently for ten years, to make one of the most bizarre decisions in the history of European politics.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Pulpstar said:

    Would a reputable poster who thinks that David Cameron is going to postpone the referendum care to craft a bet where I could take the other side?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739910 there you go :)
    I was hoping that one of the sillier hysterical ninnies would offer me considerably better odds over a rather shorter time horizon.
    Well one can but try I guess :D

    I assume you are intensely relaxed whichever way the referendum goes ;)
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    he Remainians* are approaching full panic mode.

    Careful. If leave loses, some of us could be 'leftovers...'
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Tykejohnno..It is already happening in West Yorkshire..My daughter is verbally threatened with rape and worse every night as she walks past an Indian Takeaway shop on her way home in a very small village...the shop is a gathering point for a gang of young Bangladeshi youths who virtually run the village.The police tell her to ignore them...Retribution is fast approaching as the local RU club is getting seriously peed off..I wonder what the Police will do then.

    The police are useless,last bonfire night,my local pub had its brand new windows put though by local Pakistani youth,landlord got beat up confronting them.

    When the police did arrive,they asked for a description of them,he told them of local Pakistani youth,he was told that's racist and the word he should have used was 'Asian' FFS.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Would a reputable poster who thinks that David Cameron is going to postpone the referendum care to craft a bet where I could take the other side?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739910 there you go :)
    I was hoping that one of the sillier hysterical ninnies would offer me considerably better odds over a rather shorter time horizon.
    Well one can but try I guess :D

    I assume you are intensely relaxed whichever way the referendum goes ;)
    I have a feeling that whichever way I vote I'll wish the other side had won.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'They must be absolutely crapping it, in Downing Street, around about now.

    This was so very definitely NOT what they expected.'

    If you base your strategy on treating the voters as fools you deserve to lose.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    For the three (now) outsiders in the GOP race a lot must rest with whether they can get into any of the remaining debates.

    It seems potentially not.

    link

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Christie leaves the race.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New Thread.
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    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    The only unsafe element for more doctors working saturdays is the effect it will have on their personal lives. More of them working at those days = less time spent with their families = more unhappiness = less safe relationships. Of course more patients will be alive and suffer less, but why would these doctors care about the patients.? The NHS is after all run for the convenience of its staff.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Another top general executed in North Korea:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35543364

    So that was what their rocket launch was about - firing him into the heart of the sun...
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Dear @TheBMA , why is it safe for Drs to work Saturday if they get unsocial hours premium, but unsafe without? Does more pay boost safety?

    Because the dispute is completely about pay. The Conservatives have plonked great wads of cash into the health service, the official statistics make this very clear.

    Why can't the doctors just be honest that it is about pay and not safety ?
    It's not about pay. How can it be? The saintly Mr Hunt had said none of them will lose out so is obviously not about pay. And as for official statistics these clearly show health spending had been dropping since 2010 and will continue to fall in this parliament.
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    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Would a reputable poster who thinks that David Cameron is going to postpone the referendum care to craft a bet where I could take the other side?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739910 there you go :)
    When does Cameron have to decide itt's June? 18th Feb? Is it too late for him to pull back?

    I genuinely don't know the answer to these questions. I am sure, however, that they never intended to start a euroref campaign with the polls implying they would lose.

    I imagine they thought they'd be 10-20 points ahead and would merely to have press the obvious buttons.

    So the idea of "rescheduling" the vote MUST be on someone's mind.
    *Not* getting a deal at the coming EU summit would certainly help on that score. It'd also help Cameron's image with waverers if he's seen to be adopting a firmer stance.
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    Would a reputable poster who thinks that David Cameron is going to postpone the referendum care to craft a bet where I could take the other side?

    Technically, you can't postpone something that isn't actually yet scheduled (with the exception of the Nov 2017 'half way through the parliament' deadline).
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    MD..Re my daughter..she is ok thanks..she is a very tough,intelligent.articulate Yorkshire girl and refuses to be intimidated by them..when I am staying with her the youths go very quiet..it seems only lone females are the target....she does want the Police to be slightly more attentive tho..maybe even popping into the shop and giving a few pointers..
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I reckon that given Jeb Bush's price is operating on fantasy thinking that it has scope to fall further depending on where he finishes in NC.

    I've backed Trump at his new price of 2.6 ish as he clearly has scope to go way down on a NC win.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016
    .
This discussion has been closed.