politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guess who? Looking for Jeremy Corbyn’s successor
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Cameron doesn't care. He has forced his cabinet members to keep quiet so he can dogwhistle without anyone of stature refuting him. His credibility is falling rapidly.CarlottaVance said:
Exactly. Its got everything to do with a shared border and common infrastructure and nothing to do with the EU.Casino_Royale said:
Given the 2003 Le Touquet treaty is a bilateral treaty between the UK and France, and has nothing to do with the EU, it is indeed a nonsense.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12145781/David-Cameron-warns-of-migrant-camps-in-southern-England-if-Brexit-vote.html
If we leave the EU, surely we will no longer be bound by the Dublin Convention, and would thus be able to return the asylum seekers to France? To suggest that there would be camps in southern England would suggest that a UK government outside the EU would not protect it's borders. Project Fear indeed!
<"sarcasm"> But given if we do leave the EU the UK will be transformed overnight into such an economic basket case the camps of refugees wanting to get into Britain from France will evaporate.....so I don't know what Dave is worrying about <"/sarcasm">0 -
Blair got Tories to vote for him. Did you vote Labour in 1992 and/or 2010?NorfolkTilIDie said:
I voted Blair three times and it resonates with me. Us left leaners deserve better than donkeys in charge of Labour right now.Innocent_Abroad said:
Tory activists have been talking about the "loony left" since at least Harold Wilson's time. Is there any evidence that the jibe resonates beyond committed Tories?Scott_P said:
There's the problem.Casino_Royale said:very Labour, with a clear idea of what Labour stands for that excites the membership
Nobody has a clear idea of what Labour stands for since the crash. How do you spend other peoples money when there isn't any?
And the only thing exciting the membership is loony leftism
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I'm not a remain supporter: I'll probably be voting leave for the reasons I've given passim. But I daresay many remainers will say it's European democracy in action. And that issue of sovereignty is the heart of the issue, isn't it?NorfolkTilIDie said:
What do the Remain supporters think we should do if Eurozone starts passing laws that we disagree with over us?JosiasJessop said:
No. It's yet another issue that hardline BOOers are just ignoring, saying everything will be alright, as if saying it will make it true. As we can see from the posts on here this morning.Indigo said:
handwavium > handwringiumJosiasJessop said:There's a great deal of handwavium going on this morning: if we leave the EU, everything will be great and it'll just work. It makes Cameron's comments seem sane.
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I doubt 4000 immigrants have ever headed across it in a few hours, I was assuming Aden pirates had picked up a new trade in Le Manche as @JosiapJessop's question was phrased.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Wouldn't we just close the Channel Tunnel??Pulpstar said:
That's an invasion, and should be dealt with as it was in Fishguard, 1797.JosiasJessop said:
Do we have the capability to inter (say) four thousand immigrants arriving with only a few hours' notice at Newhaven?0 -
It has nothing to do with the EU its bilateral treaty between neighbouring countries, if the French wish to abrogate that treaty they will. Being in out out of the EU doesn't make that situation better or worse.JosiasJessop said:
No. It's yet another issue that hardline BOOers are just ignoring, saying everything will be alright, as if saying it will make it true. As we can see from the posts on here this morning.Indigo said:
handwavium > handwringiumJosiasJessop said:There's a great deal of handwavium going on this morning: if we leave the EU, everything will be great and it'll just work. It makes Cameron's comments seem sane.
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JJ Any Ferry company that attempted to land several thousand immigrants at one of the UK ports without permission to land would simply be cutting its own throat and the Skippers career would be severely curtailed..0
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You should be so lucky RobRobD said:
Project fear... I feel like I'm turning into malc!!Casino_Royale said:
Given the 2003 Le Touquet treaty is a bilateral treaty between the UK and France, and has nothing to do with the EU, it is indeed a nonsense.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12145781/David-Cameron-warns-of-migrant-camps-in-southern-England-if-Brexit-vote.html
If we leave the EU, surely we will no longer be bound by the Dublin Convention, and would thus be able to return the asylum seekers to France? To suggest that there would be camps in southern England would suggest that a UK government outside the EU would not protect it's borders. Project Fear indeed!
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It will be interesting, the members might vote, but the unions hold the purse strings. "You can elect that eejit if you want, but we are not paying for it"HYUFD said:
Having backed airstrikes and come out for Trident Watson is now probably too rightwing for the present Labour membershipIndigo said:
I think the problem here is that a good proportion of the selectorate are not "very Labour". A traditional Labour selectorate would go for Dan Jarvis or Hattie or Benn, but the bunch of SWP/Greens/CPGB morons they have managed to admit to the party for the princely sum of three quid would not hear of such sensible and moderate people, they are all a bunch of Tories to them. When the members are largely a bunch of hard left nutters, the only leader that is going to get elected is a hard left nutter. I would be putting my folding on Watson as next leader because he is left enough with excellent union connections, and he is deputy leader.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with you. I think any Blair/Brown era minister is now a busted flush.DavidL said:The starting hypothesis for Alastair is someone with cabinet level experience. Why? Neither Cameron nor Osborne had such experience. Labour need to move on from a failed generation who delivered a spectacularly unsuccessful government (at least latterly) of whom the membership seriously disapprove.
Any unity team (and I think it will have to be a team of at least 2 given the width of the splits in the party) may well keep some experienced heads (like a Ken Clarke) around for experience but they need a fresh start above all. If I was looking to throw away £2 I would be looking at someone like Jim McMahon, someone with a lot of practical experience of running things and recent experience of winning.
It will be somebody very Labour, with a clear idea of what Labour stands for that excites the membership, but unsullied by Government and relatively sane.0 -
A couple of weeks ago I wondered what odds would be reasonable for an Ed M return, at least on a temporary basis.
It would seem crazy to go with the "tried and failed", even if he wanted it - which he probably doesn't.
Nevertheless, the thought struck me, in the same way it did Mr Meeks, that he is placed as someone respected (probably too much so) within the party and someone who both centrist and fairly left supporters could rally round. Moreover this placement is unusual.
Assuming Corbyn is replaced by a current MP - not certain, particularly if he somehow wins the next election and a newly elected MP from the next parliament might have a chance to succeed him, or if a Big Beast like Ed Balls or David M makes a surprise return to the green benches at a by-election in this parliament. Odds in the region of 200-1 rate Ed Miliband's chances as about the average for a Labour MP right now. That's not completely unreasonable, since there is a (highly unlikely, but feasible) path for his return, compared to a lot of MPs who can be ruled out entirely due to their lack of stature, age, political tendencies etc.
Labour have been out of power for a while now, and will have been for even longer by the time Corbyn is replaced. My main disagreement with the analysis in the header is the assumption of needing to be a former cabinet member. That seems too high a bar. Someone with junior experience (perhaps under Brown) and with a Shad Cab role under Miliband/Corbyn would probably be "good enough" to fulfill the "high status" aspect, in my view. The fact that there are fewer ex-governing Cabinet members still around doesn't concentrate the probability in the hands of the survivors, rather it diffuses it to the next generation.0 -
Legally that ferry could not sail in the first place. Neither can the French force the vessel out of their port either. It would remain a French problem.richardDodd said:JJ Any Ferry company that attempted to land several thousand immigrants at one of the UK ports without permission to land would simply be cutting its own throat and the Skippers career would be severely curtailed..
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Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?0
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This isn't going to make the SNP's case for delaying a second referendum any easier: 150 UK oil platforms to be scrapped in the next ten years. Scotland's oil - what oil?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-355122170 -
With my current bank balance, yesmalcolmg said:
You should be so lucky RobRobD said:
Project fear... I feel like I'm turning into malc!!Casino_Royale said:
Given the 2003 Le Touquet treaty is a bilateral treaty between the UK and France, and has nothing to do with the EU, it is indeed a nonsense.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12145781/David-Cameron-warns-of-migrant-camps-in-southern-England-if-Brexit-vote.html
If we leave the EU, surely we will no longer be bound by the Dublin Convention, and would thus be able to return the asylum seekers to France? To suggest that there would be camps in southern England would suggest that a UK government outside the EU would not protect it's borders. Project Fear indeed!
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No. Cameron is just claiming they would. And after he agrees with cabinet he would tone down the campaigning until they can speak out.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
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I suspect Cameron is trying to make Brexit all about migrants, an issue that by itself won't win it for Leave.
Best to ignore him and focus on all the positive reasons to leave.
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As in some other fields I felt as an MP that I ought to have a look for myself (pause for obvious joke), so I had a tour and talked to a fair number of people and wrote this report for constituents, which may still be roughly accurate:Casino_Royale said:I suspect it's far worse in the USA, but prisons in the UK still sound very horrible:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35449015
https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/BroxtoweInfo/conversations/messages/4200 -
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
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Dave is in 'throw enough shit' mode. Problem is it works.0
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I wouldn't celebrate just yet.MarqueeMark said:This isn't going to make the SNP's case for delaying a second referendum any easier: 150 UK oil platforms to be scrapped in the next ten years. Scotland's oil - what oil?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-35512217
Do you really want the Myth* to develop of the Tory BritNats who impoverished Scotland by destroying the oil industry?
Is that going to be any more electorally beneficial to you in the long run than the Myth* of the Tory NeoLiberals who impoverished The North by destroying the coal industry?
* "Myth" might be true, might be false, might even be bits of both, but by the time it's been mythologised it's not the truth value that matters anymore.0 -
On topic, I can't see more than half a dozen people agitating within Labour for a return of Ed Miliband. It is basically saying the Labour Party would return to the default setting before it went all screwy and elected Corbyn. So back to the point where it got kicked in the nuts by the voters and told to get rid of, er, saviour-of-the-Party Ed Miliband.
There's value bets, and then there's the bookies' Christmas party fund bets.0 -
Yes, it does. The Channel Tunnel remains open.AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
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Since the election I've been calling out Cameron, the pb tories have given me all sorts of stick. Now he's saying if we leave the EU there'll be jungle camps at Dover and that prisoners are only going to be banged up at weekends.
If Corbyn had suggested the latter the tories on here would wetting themselves with excitement.
As for the EU, he is clearly all in, potentially 6 months from political ignominy, he's only got himself to blame. The man is the biggest fraud in Conservative history.0 -
I'm not tempted this - I thought the Corbynista logic is Ed lost as he was too right wing.
I'd rather bet on Dr Eoin or Owen Jones.. now there would be a page turned.0 -
When the Unions are the moderates in Labour you know it has problemsIndigo said:
It will be interesting, the members might vote, but the unions hold the purse strings. "You can elect that eejit if you want, but we are not paying for it"HYUFD said:
Having backed airstrikes and come out for Trident Watson is now probably too rightwing for the present Labour membershipIndigo said:
I think the problem here is that a good proportion of the selectorate are not "very Labour". A traditional Labour selectorate would go for Dan Jarvis or Hattie or Benn, but the bunch of SWP/Greens/CPGB morons they have managed to admit to the party for the princely sum of three quid would not hear of such sensible and moderate people, they are all a bunch of Tories to them. When the members are largely a bunch of hard left nutters, the only leader that is going to get elected is a hard left nutter. I would be putting my folding on Watson as next leader because he is left enough with excellent union connections, and he is deputy leader.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with you. I think any Blair/Brown era minister is now a busted flush.DavidL said:The starting hypothesis for Alastair is someone with cabinet level experience. Why? Neither Cameron nor Osborne had such experience. Labour need to move on from a failed generation who delivered a spectacularly unsuccessful government (at least latterly) of whom the membership seriously disapprove.
Any unity team (and I think it will have to be a team of at least 2 given the width of the splits in the party) may well keep some experienced heads (like a Ken Clarke) around for experience but they need a fresh start above all. If I was looking to throw away £2 I would be looking at someone like Jim McMahon, someone with a lot of practical experience of running things and recent experience of winning.
It will be somebody very Labour, with a clear idea of what Labour stands for that excites the membership, but unsullied by Government and relatively sane.0 -
Not celebrating, just observing.MyBurningEars said:
I wouldn't celebrate just yet.MarqueeMark said:This isn't going to make the SNP's case for delaying a second referendum any easier: 150 UK oil platforms to be scrapped in the next ten years. Scotland's oil - what oil?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-35512217
Do you really want the Myth* to develop of the Tory BritNats who impoverished Scotland by destroying the oil industry?
Is that going to be any more electorally beneficial to you in the long run than the Myth* of the Tory NeoLiberals who impoverished The North by destroying the coal industry?
* "Myth" might be true, might be false, might even be bits of both, but by the time it's been mythologised it's not the truth value that matters anymore.
And even your average Nat is going to have to struggle with the notion of weak-as-piss England still controlling the international price of oil....0 -
When my instant reaction is Don't Be Stupid, I know a political policy position fails almost every WTF test.
Cameron scored a home run here. And I say that in sorrow.MarkHopkins said:
On Cameron's comments about migrants in Southern England, I have two comments:
1. FFS.
2. Is he trying to destroy all his credibility?0 -
Miss Plato, quite.
Cameron doth protest too much.0 -
It's embarrassing. And nonsensical.MarqueeMark said:
I still can't believe that the Prime Minister wants to run on the argument that Britain's borders are only secure because of the French.
Is that the best Remain has got?0 -
Why are we speculating JJ's replacement, isn't Corbynism sweeping the nation?0
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Don't you mean an own goal?Plato_Says said:When my instant reaction is Don't Be Stupid, I know a political policy position fails almost every WTF test.
Cameron scored a home run here. And I say that in sorrow.MarkHopkins said:
On Cameron's comments about migrants in Southern England, I have two comments:
1. FFS.
2. Is he trying to destroy all his credibility?0 -
Is Donald, or Cruz too long?Pulpstar said:
They're both too short.Pong said:Someone's very keen to lay Rubio over on Betfair.
Oh, and Jeb!'s back to his pre-iowa odds.
Or the field?
Also, if donald did get the nomination, is he really likely to be 2/1 vs Hillary, as the odds imply?
I'm not so sure. In such a matchup, 6/4-4/6 would be my best guess - and I wouldn't be surprised if he went below evens at some point before November.
I don't know.
When Donald tacks to the populist centre, he could be popular in a way Hillary just isn't.
I'm having second-third-fourth thoughts on Donald. This may be the last chance to get on @ long odds.
hmm.
(this is a splurge of consciousness, not a betting tip btw)0 -
Fog in Channel, Continent cut off?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Yes, it does. The Channel Tunnel remains open.AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
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http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/feb/08/mp-paul-flynn-involved-kids-company-report-misgivings-over-verdict
And Paul Flynn goes in Francis' little black book of total tw@ts....he has nearly made it on several previous occasions mind you.0 -
Is there a differencepeter_from_putney said:
Don't you mean an own goal?Plato_Says said:When my instant reaction is Don't Be Stupid, I know a political policy position fails almost every WTF test.
Cameron scored a home run here. And I say that in sorrow.MarkHopkins said:
On Cameron's comments about migrants in Southern England, I have two comments:
1. FFS.
2. Is he trying to destroy all his credibility?
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If its not in their interest to keep it open, why are they doing it now??AlastairMeeks said:
Fog in Channel, Continent cut off?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Yes, it does. The Channel Tunnel remains open.AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
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One has to at least consider the possibility that if we vote Leave, the rest of the EU will treat us as a hostile State, and impose a variety of sanctions on us. These could be economic, and they could also involve using migrants as a weapon against us. Though, one would have to question whether it was worth remaining a member of such a club.0
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There might be a myth building here. Who were these challengers Brown sidelined? Clarke was axed by Blair; Purnell and D Milliband were in Brown's Cabinet, as was Jack Straw; Alan Milburn maybe?CarlottaVance said:
A tad generous?Alastair Meeks said:No wonder Labour is in so much trouble; it has suffered a serious brain drain.
Which King 'over the water' could come to their rescue/found a safe seat?
The Conservatives had (among some views, not my own) Boris should Cameron have failed in 2015 - but who have Labour got?
Which 'Best Prime Minister we never had' departed the Labour benches in 2015? I can think of several from previous intakes - but none from the class of 2010.
The problem goes back to Blair, a decade ago, who should have stopped Brown sidelining any potential challengers to his own coronation.....0 -
Another Kipper with no knowledge of history. Cœur de Lion was a Jonny Foreigner from the EU. He was a definite Remainer.
Patrick O'Flynn
Just done séance on EU Ref. Wellington was for Out, Nelson said "why do you even need to ask me?" Richard Lionheart worried about migration.0 -
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.0 -
If anyone missed this FPT, it's super on campus safe spaces et al
http://www.mindingthecampus.org/2016/02/a-conversation-with-jonathan-haidt/0 -
This agreement causes a lot of hostility in France. Stupefying though Leavers might find it, other countries occasionally accommodate Britain at inconvenience to themselves to keep us happy.NorfolkTilIDie said:
If its not in their interest to keep it open, why are they doing it now??AlastairMeeks said:
Fog in Channel, Continent cut off?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Yes, it does. The Channel Tunnel remains open.AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
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General point on topic: the proportion of speculation about leaders going to leaders actually going is normally I'd guess around 20:1. Corbyn isn't going anywhere soon - it's not that he's having fun, but he feels it's improper for socialists to step back just because something is difficult or personally wearying. He has an unflinching sense of duty which IMO is worthy of some respect, but even if you don't agree, don't bet on a quick change.
If he did fall under a bus, I think the membership would only select someone who hadn't attacked him personally - for example, if Danczuk became leader, I'd resign from the party, and I don't say that lightly. That doesn't rule out Benn, who has been scrupulous in his arguments, though the "warmonger" accusation would need time to die down. Other possibilities are Tom Watson for the reasons mentioned downthread and, if he wins in May, Sadiq Khan, who seems to me to have exactly the right profile for a membership looking for a potential winner who won't sell the pass and will then have a record of - we hope - successful administration. Yes, he won't be an MP right away, but that can be addressed, as Boris has demonstrated.
But we're talking post-2020 in my opinion.
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It's fanciful to imagine that Britain can leave the EU without severe short term damage to our relations with other EU countries.Casino_Royale said:
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.0 -
They could, but they would have to amend their own treaties first.Sean_F said:One has to at least consider the possibility that if we vote Leave, the rest of the EU will treat us as a hostile State, and impose a variety of sanctions on us. These could be economic, and they could also involve using migrants as a weapon against us. Though, one would have to question whether it was worth remaining a member of such a club.
Article 8 TEU requires the EU to "shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries” and the same text appears in I-57 TCE. Further its its mandatory
formulation by the use of “shall” entails the Union is under an obligation to develop such a relationship.0 -
On MP suspects vs rape suspects, surely the position is that the police and CPS aren't supposed to gossip casually about who they are suspecting of something? That's why you get statements like "The police are interviewing a 46 year old man." The highly public raid on Cliff Richard's home was an aberration, not I hope the norm. If you get charged, that's different, though personally I would prefer defendants and witnesses to be allowed anonymity until conviction unless there are special reasons why not.
The press play by different rules, sadly, but they don't seem to have been given the details. MPs are particularly subject to malicious gossip and personally I'm happy to wait for actual charges before wanting to know who someone has pointed the finger at.0 -
Migration is easy to solve - we simply discover a new Australia and ship undesirables there either as prisoners or settlers.
World could do with another test playing side anyway.0 -
I should imagine French wine producers would be overjoyed to see the channel closed for an extended period. Not.AlastairMeeks said:
It's fanciful to imagine that Britain can leave the EU without severe short term damage to our relations with other EU countries.Casino_Royale said:
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.0 -
Mr. Meeks, quite, as having a dislocated shoulder reinserted into the socket is painful.0
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Then they beat us at a whole variety of sports...TGOHF said:Migration is easy to solve - we simply discover a new Australia and ship undesirables there either as prisoners or settlers.
World could do with another test playing side anyway.0 -
If bookies were to operate a book on the sack race for football club Chairmen in the same way as they do for Managers, then Ed Balls, the recently installed head honcho at Norwich City, would surely be the odds-on favourite following the club's recent disastrous sequence of results.
What are the chances that fellow Labourite Delia Smith will be cooking his bacon before long?0 -
Why? How is it going to be different when we simply put migrants back on boats/Eurostar if the mutual passport checks are removed?AlastairMeeks said:
This agreement causes a lot of hostility in France.NorfolkTilIDie said:
If its not in their interest to keep it open, why are they doing it now??AlastairMeeks said:
Fog in Channel, Continent cut off?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Yes, it does. The Channel Tunnel remains open.AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
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Oh come on can't you just wring your hands a little bit - it's all plainly our fault..CarlottaVance said:
Why? How is it going to be different when we simply put migrants back on boats/Eurostar if the mutual passport checks are removed?AlastairMeeks said:
This agreement causes a lot of hostility in France.NorfolkTilIDie said:
If its not in their interest to keep it open, why are they doing it now??AlastairMeeks said:
Fog in Channel, Continent cut off?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Yes, it does. The Channel Tunnel remains open.AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
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On topic, I can see the logic and took this bet a week ago.
The Twelvers, for the purposes of comparison I looked at how many ex Tory cabinet ministers were still MPs in 2003.
Michael Howard, Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, Peter Lilley, Virginnia Bottomley, Brian Mawhinney, Sir George Young, Stephen Dorrell, Gillian Shepherd, John Gummer, Willam Hague, John Redwood and Douglas Hogg.
That's one more than Labour now. But the Tories only had 166 MPs then compared to Labour's 232.
Plus the Tories also had a cabinet cull in 1997 when seven cabinet ministers lost their seats. But Portillo came back as a retread.0 -
2021 - Sajid vs Sadiq over the despatch box would say something about modern Britain.NickPalmer said:General point on topic: the proportion of speculation about leaders going to leaders actually going is normally I'd guess around 20:1. Corbyn isn't going anywhere soon - it's not that he's having fun, but he feels it's improper for socialists to step back just because something is difficult or personally wearying. He has an unflinching sense of duty which IMO is worthy of some respect, but even if you don't agree, don't bet on a quick change.
If he did fall under a bus, I think the membership would only select someone who hadn't attacked him personally - for example, if Danczuk became leader, I'd resign from the party, and I don't say that lightly. That doesn't rule out Benn, who has been scrupulous in his arguments, though the "warmonger" accusation would need time to die down. Other possibilities are Tom Watson for the reasons mentioned downthread and, if he wins in May, Sadiq Khan, who seems to me to have exactly the right profile for a membership looking for a potential winner who won't sell the pass and will then have a record of - we hope - successful administration. Yes, he won't be an MP right away, but that can be addressed, as Boris has demonstrated.
But we're talking post-2020 in my opinion.
relatively interesting article (you get one free if you don't subscribe):
Foreign Affairs0 -
He was born just north of Oxford. Granted his parents and ancestors were frogs, but you can't have everythingTheScreamingEagles said:Another Kipper with no knowledge of history. Cœur de Lion was a Jonny Foreigner from the EU. He was a definite Remainer.
Patrick O'Flynn
Just done séance on EU Ref. Wellington was for Out, Nelson said "why do you even need to ask me?" Richard Lionheart worried about migration. It's well known now that a increasing proportion of immigrants in this country think there is too much immigration. 0 -
That hasn't prevented the imposition of sanctions on Russia.Indigo said:
They could, but they would have to amend their own treaties first.Sean_F said:One has to at least consider the possibility that if we vote Leave, the rest of the EU will treat us as a hostile State, and impose a variety of sanctions on us. These could be economic, and they could also involve using migrants as a weapon against us. Though, one would have to question whether it was worth remaining a member of such a club.
Article 8 TEU requires the EU to "shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries” and the same text appears in I-57 TCE. Further its its mandatory
formulation by the use of “shall” entails the Union is under an obligation to develop such a relationship.
The EU would certainly have no interest in making life easy for us if we left. As I wrote a few days ago, I would expect to see EU influence make itself felt in the Scottish and Irish questions.0 -
We're talking about illegal immigration here. Legality is of little interest to those who want to come over here, for whatever reason.Moses_ said:
Legally that ferry could not sail in the first place. Neither can the French force the vessel out of their port either. It would remain a French problem.richardDodd said:JJ Any Ferry company that attempted to land several thousand immigrants at one of the UK ports without permission to land would simply be cutting its own throat and the Skippers career would be severely curtailed..
0 -
He spoke French, spent most of his life outside England, got married outside England, and is buried in France.Indigo said:
He was born just north of Oxford. Granted his parents and ancestors were frogs, but you can't have everythingTheScreamingEagles said:Another Kipper with no knowledge of history. Cœur de Lion was a Jonny Foreigner from the EU. He was a definite Remainer.
Patrick O'Flynn
Just done séance on EU Ref. Wellington was for Out, Nelson said "why do you even need to ask me?" Richard Lionheart worried about migration. It's well known now that a increasing proportion of immigrants in this country think there is too much immigration.0 -
Indeed. I would expect a credible Leave prospectus to include plans for repairing those relationships.AlastairMeeks said:
It's fanciful to imagine that Britain can leave the EU without severe short term damage to our relations with other EU countries.Casino_Royale said:
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.0 -
This is why I've said all along that I want any break with the EU to be on good terms, and with the minimum of fuss. If we start playing silly beggars they could make our lives slightly difficult. Or worse.Sean_F said:One has to at least consider the possibility that if we vote Leave, the rest of the EU will treat us as a hostile State, and impose a variety of sanctions on us. These could be economic, and they could also involve using migrants as a weapon against us. Though, one would have to question whether it was worth remaining a member of such a club.
0 -
Enoch would be proved right. The darkie has the whip hand over the white man if it is Sajid vs Sadiq over the despatch box.TOPPING said:
2021 - Sajid vs Sadiq over the despatch box would say something about modern Britain.NickPalmer said:General point on topic: the proportion of speculation about leaders going to leaders actually going is normally I'd guess around 20:1. Corbyn isn't going anywhere soon - it's not that he's having fun, but he feels it's improper for socialists to step back just because something is difficult or personally wearying. He has an unflinching sense of duty which IMO is worthy of some respect, but even if you don't agree, don't bet on a quick change.
If he did fall under a bus, I think the membership would only select someone who hadn't attacked him personally - for example, if Danczuk became leader, I'd resign from the party, and I don't say that lightly. That doesn't rule out Benn, who has been scrupulous in his arguments, though the "warmonger" accusation would need time to die down. Other possibilities are Tom Watson for the reasons mentioned downthread and, if he wins in May, Sadiq Khan, who seems to me to have exactly the right profile for a membership looking for a potential winner who won't sell the pass and will then have a record of - we hope - successful administration. Yes, he won't be an MP right away, but that can be addressed, as Boris has demonstrated.
But we're talking post-2020 in my opinion.
relatively interesting article (you get one free if you don't subscribe):
Foreign Affairs0 -
France signed an agreement in 2003 purely out of pan-EU generosity, with no benefits for their side??AlastairMeeks said:
This agreement causes a lot of hostility in France. Stupefying though Leavers might find it, other countries occasionally accommodate Britain at inconvenience to themselves to keep us happy.NorfolkTilIDie said:
If its not in their interest to keep it open, why are they doing it now??AlastairMeeks said:
Fog in Channel, Continent cut off?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Yes, it does. The Channel Tunnel remains open.AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
0 -
I've just noted that technicality with Christie, Kasich, Cruz too.Pong said:
Is Donald, or Cruz too long?Pulpstar said:
They're both too short.Pong said:Someone's very keen to lay Rubio over on Betfair.
Oh, and Jeb!'s back to his pre-iowa odds.
Or the field?
Also, if donald did get the nomination, is he really likely to be 2/1 vs Hillary, as the odds imply?
I'm not so sure. In such a matchup, 6/4-4/6 would be my best guess - and I wouldn't be surprised if he went below evens at some point before November.
I don't know.
When Donald tacks to the populist centre, he could be popular in a way Hillary just isn't.
I'm having second-third-fourth thoughts on Donald. This may be the last chance to get on @ long odds.
hmm.
(this is a splurge of consciousness, not a betting tip btw)
Zeroed out Cruz and taken advantage on the others.
Rubio's implied POTUS odds are now actually only ~ 2.2 which is probably where they'd start out or so.0 -
Off-topic:
Before the GE there was a lot of talk about whether enough Conservative MPs would sign letters of no confidence in David Cameron.and send them to the 1922 committee to trigger a leadership election.
Might we see such talk again? And on a procedural point, is this system reset after the GE? I.e. any letters sent before last May are now invalid?0 -
On topic, the very fact that Alan Johnson keeps declining is what makee him so suitable as a unity candidate.
That said, 200/1for Miliband is more than fair value.0 -
On the Le Touquet Treaty, here's a kipper scare story about France being poised to tear it up:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/567141/France-quit-Le-Touquet-Treaty-making-free-to-cross-channel
No doubt the same people who last year were touting this are this year deciding it's incredible.0 -
Do we really have to go over this every few days. The Leave campaign don't get to decide the manner of our leaving, or what subsequently happens, this is an advisory referendum to the government of the day, that government is the one that invokes Article 50, and negotiates what happens next (god help us given the recent examples of Dave's negotiating prowess). The Leave campaign could wish for any future after they referendum they want, it doesn't matter, they don't get to make the decision.Wanderer said:
Indeed. I would expect a credible Leave prospectus to include plans for repairing those relationships.AlastairMeeks said:
It's fanciful to imagine that Britain can leave the EU without severe short term damage to our relations with other EU countries.Casino_Royale said:
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.0 -
By 'committed Tories' you're including those that desert them three elections in a row?? So what you're saying is Labour should only worry about those that still vote for the party in losing elections??Innocent_Abroad said:
Blair got Tories to vote for him. Did you vote Labour in 1992 and/or 2010?NorfolkTilIDie said:
I voted Blair three times and it resonates with me. Us left leaners deserve better than donkeys in charge of Labour right now.Innocent_Abroad said:
Tory activists have been talking about the "loony left" since at least Harold Wilson's time. Is there any evidence that the jibe resonates beyond committed Tories?Scott_P said:
There's the problem.Casino_Royale said:very Labour, with a clear idea of what Labour stands for that excites the membership
Nobody has a clear idea of what Labour stands for since the crash. How do you spend other peoples money when there isn't any?
And the only thing exciting the membership is loony leftism0 -
That mediocrity isn't a race thing?TOPPING said:
2021 - Sajid vs Sadiq over the despatch box would say something about modern Britain.NickPalmer said:General point on topic: the proportion of speculation about leaders going to leaders actually going is normally I'd guess around 20:1. Corbyn isn't going anywhere soon - it's not that he's having fun, but he feels it's improper for socialists to step back just because something is difficult or personally wearying. He has an unflinching sense of duty which IMO is worthy of some respect, but even if you don't agree, don't bet on a quick change.
If he did fall under a bus, I think the membership would only select someone who hadn't attacked him personally - for example, if Danczuk became leader, I'd resign from the party, and I don't say that lightly. That doesn't rule out Benn, who has been scrupulous in his arguments, though the "warmonger" accusation would need time to die down. Other possibilities are Tom Watson for the reasons mentioned downthread and, if he wins in May, Sadiq Khan, who seems to me to have exactly the right profile for a membership looking for a potential winner who won't sell the pass and will then have a record of - we hope - successful administration. Yes, he won't be an MP right away, but that can be addressed, as Boris has demonstrated.
But we're talking post-2020 in my opinion.-1 -
So, it's a case of " Join my gang, or else?"williamglenn said:
That hasn't prevented the imposition of sanctions on Russia.Indigo said:
They could, but they would have to amend their own treaties first.Sean_F said:One has to at least consider the possibility that if we vote Leave, the rest of the EU will treat us as a hostile State, and impose a variety of sanctions on us. These could be economic, and they could also involve using migrants as a weapon against us. Though, one would have to question whether it was worth remaining a member of such a club.
Article 8 TEU requires the EU to "shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries” and the same text appears in I-57 TCE. Further its its mandatory
formulation by the use of “shall” entails the Union is under an obligation to develop such a relationship.
The EU would certainly have no interest in making life easy for us if we left. As I wrote a few days ago, I would expect to see EU influence make itself felt in the Scottish and Irish questions.0 -
Thanks Nick. Interesting read.NickPalmer said:
As in some other fields I felt as an MP that I ought to have a look for myself (pause for obvious joke), so I had a tour and talked to a fair number of people and wrote this report for constituents, which may still be roughly accurate:Casino_Royale said:I suspect it's far worse in the USA, but prisons in the UK still sound very horrible:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35449015
https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/BroxtoweInfo/conversations/messages/4200 -
JJ Are3 you suggesting that illegals would commandeer or steal the ferry..really..they still have to berth the bugger..0
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It dawned on me last night because of the EURef, you Scots will be seeing a lot more of David Coburn on the telly box in the run up to the referendum.Theuniondivvie said:
That mediocrity isn't a race thing?TOPPING said:
2021 - Sajid vs Sadiq over the despatch box would say something about modern Britain.NickPalmer said:General point on topic: the proportion of speculation about leaders going to leaders actually going is normally I'd guess around 20:1. Corbyn isn't going anywhere soon - it's not that he's having fun, but he feels it's improper for socialists to step back just because something is difficult or personally wearying. He has an unflinching sense of duty which IMO is worthy of some respect, but even if you don't agree, don't bet on a quick change.
If he did fall under a bus, I think the membership would only select someone who hadn't attacked him personally - for example, if Danczuk became leader, I'd resign from the party, and I don't say that lightly. That doesn't rule out Benn, who has been scrupulous in his arguments, though the "warmonger" accusation would need time to die down. Other possibilities are Tom Watson for the reasons mentioned downthread and, if he wins in May, Sadiq Khan, who seems to me to have exactly the right profile for a membership looking for a potential winner who won't sell the pass and will then have a record of - we hope - successful administration. Yes, he won't be an MP right away, but that can be addressed, as Boris has demonstrated.
But we're talking post-2020 in my opinion.
Makes me want to move to Scotland for the referendum.0 -
Mr. Meeks, what do you see as the reasons for leaving the EU?0
-
I do hope some of these arguments get aired in public before the referendum. I can just imagine the Remain campaign saying - "Don't vote Leave, it might upset the French".AlastairMeeks said:
It's fanciful to imagine that Britain can leave the EU without severe short term damage to our relations with other EU countries.Casino_Royale said:
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.0 -
Germany has been willing to overlook serious breaches of law from Russia to maintain relations, and France does deals with very questionable African leaders. Yet these same countries would treat us as 'hostile state' because public didn't support government's position to stay in??
After Cameron played the Islamophobia card this morning, it feels like Remain side is desperate.0 -
See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp0 -
Indeed two implied corkers from REMAIN todaytlg86 said:
I do hope some of these arguments get aired in public before the referendum. I can just imagine the Remain campaign saying - "Don't vote Leave, it might upset the French".AlastairMeeks said:
It's fanciful to imagine that Britain can leave the EU without severe short term damage to our relations with other EU countries.Casino_Royale said:
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.
"Don't vote Leave, it might upset the French"
and
"Don't vote Leave, we can't control our borders without the French"0 -
Mr. Eagles, make your decision based on the national interest.
[And, if you must consider Farage's opinion, consider also that leaving will cut UKIP off at the knees].
Mr. Die, it seems rather odd given all the advantages Remain enjoys.0 -
Or swim across to the ship, use smaller boats, etc, etc.richardDodd said:JJ Are3 you suggesting that illegals would commandeer or steal the ferry..really..they still have to berth the bugger..
And it is just one possible mechanism: a few already managed to get on a ferry at Calais a few weeks ago.
You seem to be massively underestimating the desire of these people to make it across to the UK.
But I think it's much more likely (though still unlikely) that supporters charter a ship, and the French authorities say they don't have the resources to stop them boarding it. An associate of mine helps out at the Jungle, and he gives the impression he would do anything to help people across. He's being a bit of an idiot IMO ...0 -
You will never vote leave, you are too much of a party loyalist, when you are in the voting booth your pencil will adopt a mind of its own and cross in the REMAIN boxTheScreamingEagles said:See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp
When the EUParl votes to overturn half of what Dave agreed after the referendum you will kick yourself, but it will be too late by then. 0 -
Two points:Indigo said:
Do we really have to go over this every few days. The Leave campaign don't get to decide the manner of our leaving, or what subsequently happens, this is an advisory referendum to the government of the day, that government is the one that invokes Article 50, and negotiates what happens next (god help us given the recent examples of Dave's negotiating prowess). The Leave campaign could wish for any future after they referendum they want, it doesn't matter, they don't get to make the decision.Wanderer said:
Indeed. I would expect a credible Leave prospectus to include plans for repairing those relationships.AlastairMeeks said:
It's fanciful to imagine that Britain can leave the EU without severe short term damage to our relations with other EU countries.Casino_Royale said:
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.
1. The fact that the Leave campaign isn't in a position to answer a question doesn't make it a bad question (same is true for Remain btw).
2. What I'm looking for is something the Leave campaign *can* give, which is a set of credible suggestions for how to handle the hostility which seems, to me, almost inevitable.0 -
Then ship in question wouldn't be allowed to dock. This really is a daft argument.JosiasJessop said:
Or swim across to the ship, use smaller boats, etc, etc.richardDodd said:JJ Are3 you suggesting that illegals would commandeer or steal the ferry..really..they still have to berth the bugger..
And it is just one possible mechanism: a few already managed to get on a ferry at Calais a few weeks ago.
You seem to be massively underestimating the desire of these people to make it across to the UK.
But I think it's much more likely (though still unlikely) that supporters charter a ship, and the French authorities say they don't have the resources to stop them boarding it. An associate of mine helps out at the Jungle, and he gives the impression he would do anything to help people across. He's being a bit of an idiot IMO ...0 -
The official policy of the New Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal, not obsessed by the gays and Europe Conservative Party has yet to be decidedIndigo said:
You will never vote leave, you are too much of a party loyalist, when you are in the voting booth your pencil will adopt a mind of its own and cross in the REMAIN boxTheScreamingEagles said:See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp When the EUParl votes to overturn half of what Dave agreed after the referendum you will kick yourself, but it will be too late by then. 0 -
Whilst the departure of the UK would be a shock and cause initial hysteria, I expect that would calm down and real politik to take over within a few months. We have 2 years under Article 50 to negotiate exit. You can point to EU politicians who threaten us with the four horsemen of the apocalypse. You can also point to others, like Schulz, who think that if we want to leave we should leave and be allowed to do so.AlastairMeeks said:
It's fanciful to imagine that Britain can leave the EU without severe short term damage to our relations with other EU countries.Casino_Royale said:
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.
I think the reality that it would be good for the residual EU, and for us, would be quickly realised as they could federate unhindered. So punitive sanctions are unlikely.
The EU is going to still need the UK as an ally whether we are in or out.0 -
Can we vote in such a way that both sides lose?TheScreamingEagles said:See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp
What about the Commonwealth? Nordic Alliance? Central/South America Trade Foundation?0 -
Surely, it makes sense to include left-wingers in the Leave campaign?TheScreamingEagles said:See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp0 -
My first loyalty is towards The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.Indigo said:
You will never vote leave, you are too much of a party loyalist, when you are in the voting booth your pencil will adopt a mind of its own and cross in the REMAIN boxTheScreamingEagles said:See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp When the EUParl votes to overturn half of what Dave agreed after the referendum you will kick yourself, but it will be too late by then.
I've been lucky in the past the interests of the country and party used to align, almost perfectly.-1 -
Mr Dancer, I agree with all of this up to but not including point 19. I'm still thinking about this subject though:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaorSxCW4AEIEm0.jpg0 -
It's a binary choice. Both tents are going to be pretty broad coalitions.TheScreamingEagles said:See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp
Remember @DavidL was on the same side as Galloway in the Indy ref.0 -
One can never have too much of the tweedy buffoon. #FeeltheCoburn.TheScreamingEagles said:
It dawned on me last night because of the EURef, you Scots will be seeing a lot more of David Coburn on the telly box in the run up to the referendum.Theuniondivvie said:
That mediocrity isn't a race thing?TOPPING said:
2021 - Sajid vs Sadiq over the despatch box would say something about modern Britain.NickPalmer said:General point on topic: the proportion of speculation about leaders going to leaders actually going is normally I'd guess around 20:1. Corbyn isn't going anywhere soon - it's not that he's having fun, but he feels it's improper for socialists to step back just because something is difficult or personally wearying. He has an unflinching sense of duty which IMO is worthy of some respect, but even if you don't agree, don't bet on a quick change.
If he did fall under a bus, I think the membership would only select someone who hadn't attacked him personally - for example, if Danczuk became leader, I'd resign from the party, and I don't say that lightly. That doesn't rule out Benn, who has been scrupulous in his arguments, though the "warmonger" accusation would need time to die down. Other possibilities are Tom Watson for the reasons mentioned downthread and, if he wins in May, Sadiq Khan, who seems to me to have exactly the right profile for a membership looking for a potential winner who won't sell the pass and will then have a record of - we hope - successful administration. Yes, he won't be an MP right away, but that can be addressed, as Boris has demonstrated.
But we're talking post-2020 in my opinion.
Makes me want to move to Scotland for the referendum.0 -
Mere technicalities, by the grace of God he was born in England, and would be eligible to play for all of our national sporting teams, that's more than good enough to claim him.TheScreamingEagles said:
He spoke French, spent most of his life outside England, got married outside England, and is buried in France.Indigo said:
He was born just north of Oxford. Granted his parents and ancestors were frogs, but you can't have everythingTheScreamingEagles said:Another Kipper with no knowledge of history. Cœur de Lion was a Jonny Foreigner from the EU. He was a definite Remainer.
Patrick O'Flynn
Just done séance on EU Ref. Wellington was for Out, Nelson said "why do you even need to ask me?" Richard Lionheart worried about migration. It's well known now that a increasing proportion of immigrants in this country think there is too much immigration.0 -
JJ You have obviously never tried to board a tall vessel at sea..not as easy as Hollywood makes it look..0
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It never will get decided because you are not obsessed by Europe. However if you vote LEAVE the Great Undecided might never talk to you againRobD said:
The official policy of the New Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal, not obsessed by the gays and Europe Conservative Party has yet to be decidedIndigo said:
You will never vote leave, you are too much of a party loyalist, when you are in the voting booth your pencil will adopt a mind of its own and cross in the REMAIN boxTheScreamingEagles said:See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp When the EUParl votes to overturn half of what Dave agreed after the referendum you will kick yourself, but it will be too late by then. 0 -
So its the Daily Express, UKIP, the Deputy Mayor of Calais and David Cameron.....AlastairMeeks said:On the Le Touquet Treaty, here's a kipper scare story about France being poised to tear it up:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/567141/France-quit-Le-Touquet-Treaty-making-free-to-cross-channel
No doubt the same people who last year were touting this are this year deciding it's incredible.
I bet he feel proud to be in such distinguished company.....0 -
I don't see the need for continual referenda on our membership. Only if there was substantial treaty change is one really justified.AlastairMeeks said:Mr Dancer, I agree with all of this up to but not including point 19. I'm still thinking about this subject though:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaorSxCW4AEIEm0.jpg0 -
Sean_F said:
Surely, it makes sense to include left-wingers in the Leave campaign?TheScreamingEagles said:See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp
There are scores of left wingers that could make the left wing case better than George Galloway.Sean_F said:
Surely, it makes sense to include left-wingers in the Leave campaign?TheScreamingEagles said:See this is already making me question my intention to vote Leave.
Nigel_Farage: Glad to see @georgegalloway putting forward superb left-wing case for leaving the EU. We must all work together to Leave EU. #bbcsp
I loathe the man.0 -
On Topic EICIPM (not)0
-
I'm now clear in my mind that it would be good for the EU for Britain to leave. What I'm not clear about is whether it would be good for Britain for Britain to leave.Casino_Royale said:
Whilst the departure of the UK would be a shock and cause initial hysteria, I expect that would calm down and real politik to take over within a few months. We have 2 years under Article 50 to negotiate exit. You can point to EU politicians who threaten us with the four horsemen of the apocalypse. You can also point to others, like Schulz, who think that if we want to leave we should leave and be allowed to do so.AlastairMeeks said:
It's fanciful to imagine that Britain can leave the EU without severe short term damage to our relations with other EU countries.Casino_Royale said:
Why? To spite us for leaving?AlastairMeeks said:
France can terminate on two years' notice. It's reasonable to assume that it would if Britain left the EU. It doesn't get much out of it.Sean_F said:Have the French said they'll repudiate the Le Touquet Treaty, if we vote to Leave?
I see no reason why the UK couldn't continue to have strong bilateral relations with France in the event of leaving.
We have a defence treaty with them as well that is in their national interest.
I think the reality that it would be good for the residual EU, and for us, would be quickly realised as they could federate unhindered. So punitive sanctions are unlikely.
The EU is going to still need the UK as an ally whether we are in or out.
I think you're far too optimistic about how quickly realpolitik would take over. I'd date the turning point of Britain's relations with the rest of the EU to Black Wednesday. This would be a far bigger shock than that to those relations.0
