politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef campaign looks set to come down to Cameron versus

JohnO said:

blackburn63 said:

Love or hate the Sun that is a fantastic front page.

MS mentions PMQs and this interests me, Corbyn has the opportunity to nail Cameron today but the Labour EU position probably prevents it. Its said that Corbyn isn't pro EU although reports aren't clear, he could make real headway here if he went on the attack.

What a strange world we live in, the Mail hammering Cameron, the Mirror appeasing him. Tells me all I need to know and what I've been saying for ages.

PMQs won't be that interesting but Cameron's statement at 12.30 will most assuredly be: how he responds to the hostility of a large number of his own backbenches and whether or not he conveys a sense that this is the final deal (or scope for substantive improvement at the summit) will be hugely important.

I certainly hope someone will ask whether Cameron would ever be in a situation where he would vote/campaign for out.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@NickPalmer has this about right. Of the hostile papers shown above, only the Mail was potentially winnable.

Are the papers going to lead on this day in, day out? The Express presumably will, the Sun presumably won't (its readers aren't going to be looking for cerebral politics on a daily basis as their lead story). The Mail? That's two days running. Again, that will worry the Remainers.

Nice to see you off the fence at last.

I think the Sun is the one that could have been a winner for Dave. The Mail might have given a begrudging endorsement too.

Remain will probably win but beware condescension and hubris.

I'm still very firmly on the fence. If this is it for the renegotiation, it's pretty unimpressive. I'm of the school that if the EU can't make a decent offer to Britain now, it illustrates its dysfunction.

The ravings of the Leave side do not attract me either though. As a Leaver, I hope you want to give some of your fellow supporters a hard slap. The EU is not populated by monsters.

That was my position. I'm basically a centre-left chap and I don't want to line up with UKIP and Tory Right. But this deal is so weak and ineffectual at protecting non-Euro nations I don't have a choice.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

It's a fascinating insight into the mindset of the hardened Leavers. The implied comparison between the EU and Nazi Germany is ludicrous the moment you think about it, yet it seems natural to those at the extreme end of the spectrum. It says so much about what Britain would be like if they had their way.

blackburn63 said:

rottenborough said:

blackburn63 said:

Love or hate the Sun that is a fantastic front page.

MS mentions PMQs and this interests me, Corbyn has the opportunity to nail Cameron today but the Labour EU position probably prevents it. Its said that Corbyn isn't pro EU although reports aren't clear, he could make real headway here if he went on the attack.

What a strange world we live in, the Mail hammering Cameron, the Mirror appeasing him. Tells me all I need to know and what I've been saying for ages.

Unfortunately for Corbyn, Gary from Northampton will have written in about the high cost of stamps.

Very good Sir

After last week, does anybody believe the BS that Corbyn is only asking questions from normal people, when he pulled out a question supposedly from a member of the public which referred to a ruling that occurred less than 2 hours before PMQ's. You would have thought at least one journo might have thought that seems a bit suspicious....that Bob from Bognor managed to see a court ruling, think about the impacts of that and mail, it be vetted and passed on to JJ to be added to his list all in the space of less than a couple of hours.

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JohnLilburne said:

On benefits, politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and reform how you qualify for benefits. A four year residency qualification for British cirizens and disqualifying all children living abroad from child benefit would have done the job admirably.

Well that will go down well. Sorry but you have to wait 4 years before you get benefits because we are in the EU.

I'd support such a change even if we left the EU. Benefits should be earned.

Absolutely. We're practically the only EU country without a contributory element.

Agree Ireland is the only other exception, indeed Ireland, Australia and New Zealand are the only other nations in the developed world who lack a contributory element to benefits. Although we do have contributory JSA for six months if you have paid enough NI

There is also contributory ESA if you get ill. You get this whatever your income, if you have paid a certain level of NI in previous two tax years. If you haven't paid this, for whatever reason, then ESA is a means-tested, income-related benefit.

Yes both that and contributory JSA paid regardless of savings

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@NickPalmer has this about right. Of the hostile papers shown above, only the Mail was potentially winnable.

Are the papers going to lead on this day in, day out? The Express presumably will, the Sun presumably won't (its readers aren't going to be looking for cerebral politics on a daily basis as their lead story). The Mail? That's two days running. Again, that will worry the Remainers.

Nice to see you off the fence at last.

I think the Sun is the one that could have been a winner for Dave. The Mail might have given a begrudging endorsement too.

Remain will probably win but beware condescension and hubris.

I'm still very firmly on the fence. If this is it for the renegotiation, it's pretty unimpressive. I'm of the school that if the EU can't make a decent offer to Britain now, it illustrates its dysfunction.

The ravings of the Leave side do not attract me either though. As a Leaver, I hope you want to give some of your fellow supporters a hard slap. The EU is not populated by monsters.

I have given out slaps many a time on here.

With respect I don't see any signs from you that you will do anything other than put a cross in the Remain box, however reluctantly.

blackburn63 said:

RobD said:

JohnO said:

blackburn63 said:

Love or hate the Sun that is a fantastic front page.

MS mentions PMQs and this interests me, Corbyn has the opportunity to nail Cameron today but the Labour EU position probably prevents it. Its said that Corbyn isn't pro EU although reports aren't clear, he could make real headway here if he went on the attack.

What a strange world we live in, the Mail hammering Cameron, the Mirror appeasing him. Tells me all I need to know and what I've been saying for ages.

PMQs won't be that interesting but Cameron's statement at 12.30 will most assuredly be: how he responds to the hostility of a large number of his own backbenches and whether or not he conveys a sense that this is the final deal (or scope for substantive improvement at the summit) will be hugely important.

I certainly hope someone will ask whether Cameron would ever be in a situation where he would vote/campaign for out.

Why waste a question we know the answer to?

Because it would put his response on the record? I suppose in your world there wouldn't be much point interviewing anyone, or questioning them in parliament/committees.

SeanT said:

City AM is the important one, along with Metro.

Amidst the endless frothing babble from demented europhiles, it seems to have escaped the attention of many on here (but not everyone in the City) that Cameron has acquired essentially zero protection against hostile caucusing by the eurozone. No protection for non euro members.

Apparently this is because of a late French intervention. Cameron was going to be offered a veto by Tusk, but Hollande stepped in and said Non.

This is the big stuff, hidden in plain sight. I predict that a few years after we vote REMAIN, this will become a huge issue and likely drive us out of the EU anyway, possibly via a second referendum, possibly not.

The French political elite will have a shock then next year when the anti Euro Marine Le Pen wins the first round if the French presidential election

Dave versus tomorrow's chip wrappers?

Interestingly the Dad's Army movie is out on Friday, so the country will see Dave as a slightly pompous, but utterly patriotic chap who would do anything to keep the country safe.

Dave won't mind that comparison, and is The Sun really comparing the EU to the Nazis?

Mr. Meeks, I think our interest and the EU/eurozone interest is on a divergent course but we lack the protection and veto power to stop them imposing harmful (to us) measures.

Enemies? No. Different countries have different interests and putting them in straitjackets and trying to make one size fit all leads to idiocy like the eurozone.

We should leave because it is in our interest to do so (leaving aside the fact I think the EU will disintegrate and collapse during the course of my lifetime, and that leaving earlier will cause less pain when that happens).

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

It's a fascinating insight into the mindset of the hardened Leavers. The implied comparison between the EU and Nazi Germany is ludicrous the moment you think about it, yet it seems natural to those at the extreme end of the spectrum. It says so much about what Britain would be like if they had their way.

Hmm

How's it any different than the implied position of Remain ?

Remain's view that we need to stay in for "influence" is simply saying we need to control the dominant continental power by staying close to it. But the basic tenet is the same and has been UK policy for hundreds of years, we want to stop a dominant power telling us what to do. There is always a perceived dominant power, for centuries it was France now it's Germany in it's many guises.

Leave is simply more overt about stating it. Remain takes the sotto voce route.

On the flip side, there's no protection for the City of London nor for the financial services industry.

So my intent to vote leave has gone up from 6 out of 10 to 8 out of 10.

Sorry Dave, you've left me unsatisfied, and I wasn't asking for much.

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

It's a fascinating insight into the mindset of the hardened Leavers. The implied comparison between the EU and Nazi Germany is ludicrous the moment you think about it, yet it seems natural to those at the extreme end of the spectrum. It says so much about what Britain would be like if they had their way.

But the hardened europhiles spent DECADES caricaturing anyone sceptical of Europe - or, say, the euro - as mad, Fascist, bumbling, frothy-faced closet racists. Even when it was fairly apparent that most of them were perfectly lucid - and quite correct in their analysis of, say, the euro.

Only recently have europhiles grudgingly accept that their opponents have a case to answer, but you can still sense the sneering, just beneath the surface.

Both sides can be deeply unpleasant. But the sceptics have been proven right, more than their opponents.

How on earth anyone could think Leave is populated by frothy-faced closet racists when they're comparing the EU with Nazi Germany is quite beyond me.

SeanT said:

City AM is the important one, along with Metro.

Amidst the endless frothing babble from demented europhiles, it seems to have escaped the attention of many on here (but not everyone in the City) that Cameron has acquired essentially zero protection against hostile caucusing by the eurozone. No protection for non euro members.

Apparently this is because of a late French intervention. Cameron was going to be offered a veto by Tusk, but Hollande stepped in and said Non.

This is the big stuff, hidden in plain sight. I predict that a few years after we vote REMAIN, this will become a huge issue and likely drive us out of the EU anyway, possibly via a second referendum, possibly not.

Sat as I am up north rather than commuting into London from a cosy suburban semi I don't think the Metro and City AM are at all important. In London yes they will be but up north all we get is the usual papers and the Sun / Mail / Mirror will dictate the mood....

Oh the joys of being mid-contracts...

There are still some incredibly vague parts of "the deal" regarding the protection of UK interests from EZ dominance but other than that it appears to me that Cameron has largely got what he said he wanted. The problem he has, as shown by the headlines in the thread header, is what he said he wanted (or, more realistically, what he thought at the outset he could get) seems a very long way short of a new and different relationship with the EU.

As I said yesterday he has been hamstrung by the migrant crisis and there has been very little engagement with the broader themes of reform set out in his Bloomberg speech. Everyone on the continent is really focussed on more pressing matters.

So the choice is not really between a new, improved relationship with the EU and Leave. It is between what is for all practical purposes the current relationship with the EU and Leave. In my view Cameron should face up to that and acknowledge that is the case. An attempt to oversell his deal making it out to be more than it is would be seriously damaging to Remain because it is simply not credible.

In some ways this is the correct basis for the referendum. As some of the frothier Leavers have noted from time to time the EU does have a tendency to evolve over time and is not what we voted for in 1975. This process is not finished, it will never finish. The EZ in particular, having teetered on the brink in the last few years, needs more integration, control of budgets, taxation, etc if it is to avoid a repeat. I have always thought that the negotiation was something of a distraction from the real question of whether we want to stay in a Europe that will continue to evolve to ever closer Union (at least in large part) or not. Changes made today would not necessarily be there tomorrow; that is the nature of the beast.

I genuinely think that this decision is winnable for Leave and that we would be better situated in the EEA with a still close but looser relationship with the EU, what I have described on here as a form of "country membership". For Leave to win, however, it needs to start acting like adults and to engage in an adult discussion. The ranting against Cameron will prove counterproductive to those open to persuasion. There needs to be a clear vision of what Leave means and a commitment to the EEA. This means the "control of our borders" line needs to be substantially downplayed and a recognition that we will continue to be bound by a significant part of the EU's legislative output in the single market.

My suspicion is that Leave contains too many to whom this is unacceptable, to whom sovereignty is still some sort of 19th century ideal, where we could cut our own path in the world independent of all these entanglements. If so, there will not be a clear choice to Remain and if there is not Remain will win. Today has not increased my confidence that that kind of maturity will be predominant in the argument.

Time to start going balls deep on leave.

Montie: Personally, think Brexit unlikely this time. Ref=about keeping dream alive with 40%+ Scottish-type NO. Then electing Outer to succeed DCam.

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

It's a fascinating insight into the mindset of the hardened Leavers. The implied comparison between the EU and Nazi Germany is ludicrous the moment you think about it, yet it seems natural to those at the extreme end of the spectrum. It says so much about what Britain would be like if they had their way.

But the hardened europhiles spent DECADES caricaturing anyone sceptical of Europe - or, say, the euro - as mad, Fascist, bumbling, frothy-faced closet racists. Even when it was fairly apparent that most of them were perfectly lucid - and quite correct in their analysis of, say, the euro.

Only recently have europhiles grudgingly accept that their opponents have a case to answer, but you can still sense the sneering, just beneath the surface.

Both sides can be deeply unpleasant. But the sceptics have been proven right, more than their opponents.

How on earth anyone could think Leave is populated by frothy-faced closet racists when they're comparing the EU with Nazi Germany is quite beyond me.

Probably just an exaggeration to make a point. I doubt anyone at the Sun thinks Merkel is a Nazi.

MP_SE said:

For someone who is supposedly undecided, Mr Meeks appears to be have lost all sense of humour when it comes to this mornings front pages. I think very few people would say the EU is remotely like Nazi Germany. The Sun's front page is mildly amusing.

Talk me through what you think the front page of the Sun is saying about the EU then.

Pauly said:

The EU and the Nazis both:
- would love to effectively abolish trade unions. It fits their crony corporatism.
- would have the trains running on time. (think Postal directive)
- have a single state governing the European continent.
- have a democratic deficit.

Admittedly the EU doesn't have factories of death and didn't have to burn a parliament or declare war to takeover...

Please don't make comparisons between the EU and the Nazis. I can't think of anything more likely to push me into the hands of Remain.

MarkHopkins said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

It's a fascinating insight into the mindset of the hardened Leavers. The implied comparison between the EU and Nazi Germany is ludicrous the moment you think about it, yet it seems natural to those at the extreme end of the spectrum. It says so much about what Britain would be like if they had their way.

But the hardened europhiles spent DECADES caricaturing anyone sceptical of Europe - or, say, the euro - as mad, Fascist, bumbling, frothy-faced closet racists. Even when it was fairly apparent that most of them were perfectly lucid - and quite correct in their analysis of, say, the euro.

Only recently have europhiles grudgingly accept that their opponents have a case to answer, but you can still sense the sneering, just beneath the surface.

Both sides can be deeply unpleasant. But the sceptics have been proven right, more than their opponents.

How on earth anyone could think Leave is populated by frothy-faced closet racists when they're comparing the EU with Nazi Germany is quite beyond me.

Probably just an exaggeration to make a point. I doubt anyone at the Sun thinks Merkel is a Nazi.

Exaggeration? Talk me through the points of resemblance that would justify the exaggeration.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

*McDonnell breathes a sigh of relief....*

[edited for senior moment...!]

MarkHopkins said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarkHopkins said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

It's a fascinating insight into the mindset of the hardened Leavers. The implied comparison between the EU and Nazi Germany is ludicrous the moment you think about it, yet it seems natural to those at the extreme end of the spectrum. It says so much about what Britain would be like if they had their way.

But the hardened europhiles spent DECADES caricaturing anyone sceptical of Europe - or, say, the euro - as mad, Fascist, bumbling, frothy-faced closet racists. Even when it was fairly apparent that most of them were perfectly lucid - and quite correct in their analysis of, say, the euro.

Only recently have europhiles grudgingly accept that their opponents have a case to answer, but you can still sense the sneering, just beneath the surface.

Both sides can be deeply unpleasant. But the sceptics have been proven right, more than their opponents.

How on earth anyone could think Leave is populated by frothy-faced closet racists when they're comparing the EU with Nazi Germany is quite beyond me.

Probably just an exaggeration to make a point. I doubt anyone at the Sun thinks Merkel is a Nazi.

Exaggeration? Talk me through the points of resemblance that would justify the exaggeration.

Nazi Germany wanted to control Britain

The EU wants to control Britain.

(is the point they are making).

You think he doesn't know this ?

He's just trolling the Outers.

I wrote this yesterday in response to Cyclefree. But as it was at midnight, many of you will have missed it. Therefore, I repost it for your interest:

---

The problem is this: as an island nation, with very different traditions of democracy and law, we are a poor fit for the EU. Unlike many of our neighbours, we are not subscale (Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, etc.). Nor do we have fundamentally undefendable land borders (Germany, France). Nor do we have a history of fascism we'd like constrained (Portugal, Italy, Spain, Germany).

The countries of the EU have chosen a different path to us, and we will never be fully paid up to their vision. (And, contrary to the views of many on this site, support for the EU and the Euro is surprisingly strong on the continent.)

We need to leave with dignity, and offer our support to our neighbours. Our departure is good for us, and good for them, and needs to be framed like that. We must become, as we have been in the past, semi-detached.

This does not mean we hate them. This does not mean we wish them ill. It merely means the path they have chosen is not for us.

Too much Euroscepticism is just Eurohostility. We have different choices to a Belgium. We should not belittle their choices, because they are constrained by history, geography and numerous other factors.

This marriage doesn't work for us, and doesn't work for the EU. Let us leave with our heads held high, and in a spirit of constructiveness not in the hope that "we bring the whole edifice crashing down", as one PB commentator wrote.

It may be the EU and the Eurozone fall apart, thanks to Eurogeddon or the migrant crisis. But it should not be our obstructiveness that causes the collapse. Their future is theirs to make.

We must leave. But leave recognising we'll get on better, simply as "just good friends".

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pauly said:

The EU and the Nazis both:
- would love to effectively abolish trade unions. It fits their crony corporatism.
- would have the trains running on time. (think Postal directive)
- have a single state governing the European continent.
- have a democratic deficit.

Admittedly the EU doesn't have factories of death and didn't have to burn a parliament or declare war to takeover...

Churchill was also in favour of a United States of Europe.

Churchill was also in favour of a democratic deficit all around the world.

Churchill sent in the troops to deal with trade unionist.

Two wrongs don't make a right, you've put forward a good argument for Churchill being equally flawed and fallible.

Mr. Mark, I was wondering if you were making a subtle point.

Mr. Eagles, hope that, not unlike the Incredible Hulk, you're now all green.

Alanbrooke said:

MarkHopkins said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarkHopkins said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

It's a fascinating insight into the mindset of the hardened Leavers. The implied comparison between the EU and Nazi Germany is ludicrous the moment you think about it, yet it seems natural to those at the extreme end of the spectrum. It says so much about what Britain would be like if they had their way.

But the hardened europhiles spent DECADES caricaturing anyone sceptical of Europe - or, say, the euro - as mad, Fascist, bumbling, frothy-faced closet racists. Even when it was fairly apparent that most of them were perfectly lucid - and quite correct in their analysis of, say, the euro.

Only recently have europhiles grudgingly accept that their opponents have a case to answer, but you can still sense the sneering, just beneath the surface.

Both sides can be deeply unpleasant. But the sceptics have been proven right, more than their opponents.

How on earth anyone could think Leave is populated by frothy-faced closet racists when they're comparing the EU with Nazi Germany is quite beyond me.

Probably just an exaggeration to make a point. I doubt anyone at the Sun thinks Merkel is a Nazi.

Exaggeration? Talk me through the points of resemblance that would justify the exaggeration.

Nazi Germany wanted to control Britain

The EU wants to control Britain.

(is the point they are making).

You think he doesn't know this ?

He's just trolling the Outers.

Curious. I thought the EU was something we are part of, not something that is done to us.

AlastairMeeks said:

MP_SE said:

For someone who is supposedly undecided, Mr Meeks appears to be have lost all sense of humour when it comes to this mornings front pages. I think very few people would say the EU is remotely like Nazi Germany. The Sun's front page is mildly amusing.

Talk me through what you think the front page of the Sun is saying about the EU then.

They're crow barring the leading line from the theme of a new film into the days top story without worrying too much about how it will play to firm undecideds?

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarkHopkins said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarkHopkins said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're taking it dreadfully seriously (and literally).

If I say Corbyn's as incompetent as Honorius that doesn't mean I think he'll literally have his best lieutenant executed after promising him safety.

It's a fascinating insight into the mindset of the hardened Leavers. The implied comparison between the EU and Nazi Germany is ludicrous the moment you think about it, yet it seems natural to those at the extreme end of the spectrum. It says so much about what Britain would be like if they had their way.

But the hardened europhiles spent DECADES caricaturing anyone sceptical of Europe - or, say, the euro - as mad, Fascist, bumbling, frothy-faced closet racists. Even when it was fairly apparent that most of them were perfectly lucid - and quite correct in their analysis of, say, the euro.

Only recently have europhiles grudgingly accept that their opponents have a case to answer, but you can still sense the sneering, just beneath the surface.

Both sides can be deeply unpleasant. But the sceptics have been proven right, more than their opponents.

How on earth anyone could think Leave is populated by frothy-faced closet racists when they're comparing the EU with Nazi Germany is quite beyond me.

Probably just an exaggeration to make a point. I doubt anyone at the Sun thinks Merkel is a Nazi.

Exaggeration? Talk me through the points of resemblance that would justify the exaggeration.

Nazi Germany wanted to control Britain

The EU wants to control Britain.

(is the point they are making).

You think he doesn't know this ?

He's just trolling the Outers.

Curious. I thought the EU was something we are part of, not something that is done to us.

Trip trap trip trap over the rickety bridge....

etc.

Even if it's half this sum. Yowser. I'd run far away from such a deal myself, it'll ruin their brand and other trade.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3428520/Germany-spend-400-MILLION-multi-year-contract-housing-10-000-refugees-Holiday-Inn-hotels.html

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

Alanbrooke said:

No real surprise

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12136460/George-Osborne-will-not-balance-books-by-end-of-decade-warns-think-tank.html

It'll probably be close. I hope we have a very small surplus by 2020.

So do I. But we won't. We're going to have another 2008, a Lehman moment well before then. The OBR's view of 2.2% growth across the next few years is a fantasy. The coming crash will ruin Osborne's deficit plans and put our (and every other country's) politics into very difficult ground. What should be done when you're deep in recession, deep in debt and deep in deficit? The ammo has all been expended. We can't reduce interest rates any further!

Do a Japanese Patrick , get them negative, hand out more money , but don't give it to bankers this time , give it to the plebs and it will be spent in UK rather than salted away in tax havens..

Negative interest rates is an outright admission of abject failure to control the money supply and deficit. Japan delenda est. Just don't go there. Do you REALLY believe the right answer for the UK's troubles is to charge people to put their money in a bank? Are you just another rude Scot vomiting up some poison for me to lick?

Patrick said:

The EU decision will mirror the Scotland one in many ways. I think William Cecil (Lord Burghley -Elisabeth I's chief adviser) had it spot on:

When rude Scotland vomits up a poison,must fine England lick it up for a restorative?
(our Malc will love that one!)

So I ask you: When rude Brussels vomits up a poison, must the fine UK lick it up for a restorative?

Patrick I know who has been administering that poison for 300 years , scoundrels.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@NickPalmer has this about right. Of the hostile papers shown above, only the Mail was potentially winnable.

Are the papers going to lead on this day in, day out? The Express presumably will, the Sun presumably won't (its readers aren't going to be looking for cerebral politics on a daily basis as their lead story). The Mail? That's two days running. Again, that will worry the Remainers.

Nice to see you off the fence at last.

I think the Sun is the one that could have been a winner for Dave. The Mail might have given a begrudging endorsement too.

Remain will probably win but beware condescension and hubris.

I'm still very firmly on the fence. If this is it for the renegotiation, it's pretty unimpressive. I'm of the school that if the EU can't make a decent offer to Britain now, it illustrates its dysfunction.

The ravings of the Leave side do not attract me either though. As a Leaver, I hope you want to give some of your fellow supporters a hard slap. The EU is not populated by monsters.

I have given out slaps many a time on here.

With respect I don't see any signs from you that you will do anything other than put a cross in the Remain box, however reluctantly.

That's largely because Leave doesn't begin to address the question of what next if we vote leave. I'm not voting leave if that means turning our back on the 21st century.

What I'm deducing this morning is that lashings of xenophobia would be on the agenda, given the amusement the Sun front page is causing among the Leavers.

So you admit you'd vote Remain then. Thanks for clearing that up.

On your broader points, people like Robert Smithson, Sean Fear, Richard Tyndall and myself have laid out on here many times credible alternate models for the UK outside the EU.

If Leavers are frustrated today, I can't say I blame them given the degree of wool pulling and weaselling going on at the top of the Conservative Party whilst misrepresenting it as a great success.

The thing is, I think logically you have some sympathy with the Brexit PoV but you really don't like most of those who make it so are letting your heart rule your head.

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MP_SE said:

For someone who is supposedly undecided, Mr Meeks appears to be have lost all sense of humour when it comes to this mornings front pages. I think very few people would say the EU is remotely like Nazi Germany. The Sun's front page is mildly amusing.

Talk me through what you think the front page of the Sun is saying about the EU then.

They're crow barring the leading line from the theme of a new film into the days top story without worrying too much about how it will play to firm undecideds?

This.

There were similar Photoshop jobs when Star Wars came out. Just not on the front cover of a national newspaper.

Patrick said:

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

Alanbrooke said:

No real surprise

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12136460/George-Osborne-will-not-balance-books-by-end-of-decade-warns-think-tank.html

It'll probably be close. I hope we have a very small surplus by 2020.

So do I. But we won't. We're going to have another 2008, a Lehman moment well before then. The OBR's view of 2.2% growth across the next few years is a fantasy. The coming crash will ruin Osborne's deficit plans and put our (and every other country's) politics into very difficult ground. What should be done when you're deep in recession, deep in debt and deep in deficit? The ammo has all been expended. We can't reduce interest rates any further!

Do a Japanese Patrick , get them negative, hand out more money , but don't give it to bankers this time , give it to the plebs and it will be spent in UK rather than salted away in tax havens..

Negative interest rates is an outright admission of abject failure to control the money supply and deficit. Japan delenda est. Just don't go there. Do you REALLY believe the right answer for the UK's troubles is to charge people to put their money in a bank? Are you just another rude Scot vomiting up some poison for me to lick?

I know what I would give you to lick my boy

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

Alanbrooke said:

No real surprise

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12136460/George-Osborne-will-not-balance-books-by-end-of-decade-warns-think-tank.html

It'll probably be close. I hope we have a very small surplus by 2020.

So do I. But we won't. We're going to have another 2008, a Lehman moment well before then. The OBR's view of 2.2% growth across the next few years is a fantasy. The coming crash will ruin Osborne's deficit plans and put our (and every other country's) politics into very difficult ground. What should be done when you're deep in recession, deep in debt and deep in deficit? The ammo has all been expended. We can't reduce interest rates any further!

Do a Japanese Patrick , get them negative, hand out more money , but don't give it to bankers this time , give it to the plebs and it will be spent in UK rather than salted away in tax havens..

So negative interest rates: Yes that should break anyone with a final salary pension scheme to finance (as values are discounted back from benchmark interest and gilt yields) - so a big chunk of the FTSE 250 will nose dive at warp speed, with predictable consequences for jobs.
Still when Mark Carney gives me my own fresh £100 I shall skip with a light heart to the bank and change it (while I can) into something more likely to keep its value Swiss Francs, or Venezuelan Bolivars.

TheScreamingEagles said:

On the flip side, there's no protection for the City of London nor for the financial services industry.

So my intent to vote leave has gone up from 6 out of 10 to 8 out of 10.

Sorry Dave, you've left me unsatisfied, and I wasn't asking for much.

Delighted to have you on board TSE. Would appreciate your PoV on how we can help make the best centrist moderate case for Brexit possible.

When people say they don't know what leave would mean... it would mean being an independent country - free to follow the model of any existing independent country (or chart our own course) and there are lots currently to choose from.
We could start negotiations to join any trade bloc, customs union or start negotiations for free trade deals with countries that the government of the day chooses.
Please don't be fooled by the economic doom-saying from the people who did exactly the same with the possibility that we might not join the euro.

Pauly said:

When people say they don't know what leave would mean... it would mean being an independent country - free to follow the model of any existing independent country (or chart our own course) and there are lots currently to choose from.
We could start negotiations to join any trade bloc, customs union or start negotiations for free trade deals with countries that the government of the day chooses.
Please don't be fooled by the economic doom-saying from the people who did exactly the same with the possibility that we might not join the euro.

What about all the Better Together , Pooling and Sharing bollox , Europe will not negotiate with us , we will all lose our pensions , NHS , etc
Bloody hypocrites

Ireland's general election campaign kicks off for Feb 26th polling day #GE16 https://t.co/OxowafoinZ

The Sun front-page is being used as a dead cat this morning...

'If Leavers are frustrated today, I can't say I blame them given the degree of wool pulling and weaselling going on at the top of the Conservative Party whilst misrepresenting it as a great success.'

There's another point being missed here. If some people are angry about the EU it is because this deception has been going on for forty years.

The public have been treated with complete contempt by our political class and the upper echelons of the civil service (and the new 'deal' is just the latest edition of this). These are the people the ire of the tabloids would better be directed at - our European neighbours have only done what they always said they would do from the very start.

And people who feel that are already voting Leave, where is the message for the rest?

Leave need to stop moaning and start converting.

runnymede said:

'If Leavers are frustrated today, I can't say I blame them given the degree of wool pulling and weaselling going on at the top of the Conservative Party whilst misrepresenting it as a great success.'

There's another point being missed here. If some people are angry about the EU it is because this deception has been going on for forty years.

The public have been treated with complete contempt by our political class and the upper echelons of the civil service (and the new 'deal' is just the latest edition of this). These are the people the ire of the tabloids would better be directed at - our European neighbours have only done what they always said they would do from the very start.