politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Corbyn’s Labour has to have any chance it has to dent Os

Labour’s unrelenting focus should be on the economy. Even before the mockery that he earned with misjudged tweet on the modest Google tax payment the Chancellor George’s Osborne’s claims to competence have been fraying fast.
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It has no Plan B.
Hillary Clinton set up her own email server and did not use government email AT ALL.
Nobody else has ever done that.
Either Labour address their spendthrift image and economic credibility problem, or they have to sit back and wait for Osborne to be hoist by his own petard.
No bets from me on which will come first.
If Labour are going to convince they need to do more than just point out Osborne's failings, lots of us have been doing that for years, they need to propose some viable alternative policies that would be acceptable to middle England, and that seems completely beyond them.
like Brown, his record is now catching him up.
Plan C - Corbyn
Plan D - Dianne
Plan E - Extinction
Her choice of Veep will be fascinating....for the next President market."
Jail time only beckons for certain if they find the instruction from Hillary to her minions to do that. So far, no-one is indicating that that particular smoking gun has been found.
But. And it is a big but, if one, two or three of her aides go to jail for actually doing the reformatting, then I don't see Hillary winning the election, even if she wins the nomination, almost no matter who the GOP put up against her. The Donald's tweet this morning (that she is a threat to national security and not Presidential) will be run ad nauseam and will gain sufficient traction where it matters - in the centre.
In fact, my gut feeling is that all it will take to scupper Hillary's White House dreams is for Huma Abadin to be indicted on damning evidence. Even if Huma takes the fall for Hillary, the two are so politically bound that it'll be seen by enough voters as proof-sufficient for the public court of Hillary's guilt (if not enough for the legal courts).
It may frustrate you, but most are happy enough.
Meanwhile, the UK remains one of the few bright spots in the world economy. There will be some EU Referendum turbulence this year, though.
I was involved in what might loosely be called a debate (or slanging match) with Another_Richard and Alanbrooke on here last night. The critique of Osborne's performance is from the right. It claims he has not done enough to cut the deficit, to cut spending, to break up the banks to make them more competitive, to make our industries more competitive (polite speak for getting more for less out of the workforce); to simplify and cut taxes etc.
I was defending him and will continue to do so but, possibly other than the break up of the big banks, it is difficult to see anything in that agenda that is not going to be anathema to McDonnell. His solutions of even more borrowing, public "investment", even more consumption, peoples QE etc are going to be met with derision across the board.
Labour need to get real. If they want to oppose the benefit cap, for example, they need to explain how much that would cost, who would pay for it and why that would help the economy grow faster. When even the likes of Danny Blanchflower is in despair at their direction and statements Osborne gets a free ride.
This is scarcely believable:
"Head of Council legal service...Hubert Legal is the top lawyer for EU leaders"
https://t.co/TQKDWSIq7P
Like his boss, he seems unable to get over having lost the excuse for inaction that was the Lib Dems.
In another recently released email, Clinton instructed Sullivan to convert a classified document into an unclassified email attachment by scanning it into an unsecured computer and sending it to her without any classified markings. “Turn into nonpaper w no identifying heading and send nonsecure,” she ordered.
http://nypost.com/2016/01/24/hillarys-team-copied-intel-off-top-secret-server-to-email/
You are setting up straw men, to some extent. Taxation of multi-nationals has received very little attention on here. Its Osborne's budgetary performance that has received the most criticism.
The fact remains that after six years debt is mounting alarmingly, the finances are still well adrift of any sort of balance, and Osborne's only meaningful response is higher taxes on the aspirational middle class.
We don't agree with sweat shops - we're not lawyers you know.
I was talking to my pension guy the other day and we both agreed that should, in some parallel universe, the current Labour party even look like a sniff of power we would both be unbolting anything we could from whatever we had and sending abroad to the safety of foreign assets pronto in advance. I suspect we are not alone, and until Labour can remove that naked fear (for fear it is), it's a long way back.
Osborne's skill is that he attracts the opprobrium of both the left and the right, and maintains his position only through patronage and hanging off the coat tails of Cameron.
read back posts if you can be bothered, critics of Osborne have over the years been specific on what they think needs to be done.
In a jacket that buttons up from the back :-)
But in other areas the government, whilst nowhere near perfect, can point to higher than average economic growth, fast falling unemployment and low inflation as major wins.
Labour's lurch to the left only widens the economic credibility gap, even if the tories are far from scoring a 10/10 on economic matters.
Osborne has been radical in tax reform but it has all been about getting more money in. So we have had GAAR, aggressive anti-avoidance measures including an obligation to pay up front where the debt is disputed, international treaties and disclosure agreements with tax havens and most recently a go at BTL. None of this simplifies the tax code, quite the reverse. Simplification cost money.
Rubbish - that's just enough fig leaf. He simply isn't interested, in the same way that neither he nor his boss are interested in curbing immigration.
Osborne has shied away from all of that, preferring to salami slice government spending rather than re-think what government needs to do and ensure that those bits are properly funded. Wealth creation is still lagging behind wealth consumption and wealth export under Osborne's stewardship. We still have a massive structural deficit and a current account deficit that is truly horrendous and Osborne is still spending money like a drunken clipper-hand in port.
And the govt are doing quite a bit on investment and skills - I am sure it would do more if it had a magic money tree
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/department-for-business-innovation-and-skills-settlement-at-the-spending-review-2015
''protecting funding for the core adult skills participations budgets in cash terms creating 5 National Colleges, and providing funding for a real terms protection for the overall STEM subjects in higher education (HE)
delivering 3 million high quality apprenticeships by 2020''
''Science funding of £4.7 billion will be protected in real terms over the Parliament.''
''The government commits to funding aerospace and automotive technologies for 10 years.
This will provide over £1 billion additional funding for innovation in these sectors.
By 2019 to 2020, government spending on apprenticeships will have doubled in cash terms compared to 2010 to 2011''
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/01/if-corbyns-labour-has-to-have-any-chance-in-needs-to-win-back-trust-on-the-economy/#vanilla-comments
''£100 billion in infrastructure spending by 2020.''
''the new National Infrastructure Commission,''
''asset sales which the Treasury expects to raise billions of pounds is being identified to be ploughed back into infrastructure projects, ''
''northern connectivity...London’s transport system...energy...shake Britain out of its inertia on infrastructure...think long-term and deliver a cross-party consensus''
Cardinal Sin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaime_Sin
Which leaves McDonnell having taken the heat off Osborne over Google by getting everyone to talk about whether his own tax return is on the wrong form. Genius.
I miss Larry Speakes.
Basic rate taxpayer: 45.8%
Higher-rate taxpayer up to £100K: 55.8%
£100K to £121K: 75.8%
£121K to £150K: 55.8%
£150K+: 60.8%
Completely bonkers.
It's also very striking how high the so-called basic rate is.
Figures are for current tax year, and exclude the child-benefit effect (which for those affected gives another hike of marginal rate at £50K).
The Election That Never Was looking more and more like Labour's last chance every day. https://t.co/JzgNV4ngZF
It ended 1-1 with the scorers being Sweeney and Todd.
Brown was a meddler. Lamont was a meddler. Howe and Lawson were simplifiers.
I had high hopes Osborne would be a simplifier, and he started off pointing in the right direction. But he has turned into a meddler.
The @guardian claims it receives up to 65,000 "problematic" comments every day.
Perhaps the commenters aren't the problem.
That will be no use to Labour if they are still less trusted.
That Jublia?
The problem for Labour is that even if this happens, Corbyn's opened up massive weakness on Defence, sovereignty (Falklands) and migration.
Causes:
White flight to the suburbs.
and
immigrants on welfare..
They vote Labour and get MPs who do nothing for them - under Labour's 40 years in power Glasgow got poorer and more ill..
I suspect the Tories don't care..
Theresa May although I'm not a massive fan on her authoritarian streak would most likely be competent.
PM Boris is a possibility, but Jeesh ye gods.
I'd have Osborne over them any day of the week and twice on Sundays. Especially Boris.
Although slightly embarrassing, the tax credit U-turn will have got Osborne some supporters in the bag.
Michael Gove perhaps would be my choice of the cabinet I guess.
Cannon to the right
Volly'd and thundered
Subs without nukes is the icing on the cake for stupidity.
Under Cameron the Conservatives have forgotten that idea and seized upon the LIbDems one that only the relatively well off and above should pay, but everyone should have a say on how much. Problems were bound to arise.
It wasn't the lords that made Osborne U-turn, I suspect, it was the many tory waverers who panicked at the first whiff of gunpowder.
Someone on £60k.
Income Tax £13403 (£6357 at 20%, £7046 at 40%)
National Insurance: £4471 (employee), £7160 (employer)
Comes out at 42%.
Someone on £30k
Income Tax £3880
National Insurance: £2632 (employee), £3020 (employer)
Comes out at 32%
Have you forgotten the tax free allowance?
EDIT: I AM A DUMMY AND MISUNDERSTOOD WHAT YOU WERE STATING
Where is Osborne's march of the makers? Where is this apprenticeship revolution he has talked so much about? Why is the diverted profits tax not working? He is weak and now that the perennial excuse of "the Lib Dems blocked it" isn't available it is becoming obvious that Osborne is the roadblock to bold reforms in taxation and benefits.
.... but its only small bore and they keep shooting themselves in the foot.. McDonnell as Chancellor... = parallel universe