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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Populus back to “normal” following Friday’s shock LAB 11pc
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Populus back to “normal” following Friday’s shock LAB 11pc lead
Well today’s poll is just out and we’ve got our answer. The numbers are very much back in line with all the other Populus online polls since the series was started last month.
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First?
must be true...tim told us.
Just to re-write what I put on the previous thread, the polling of Lib Dem activists last week gave a favourable verdict on the coalition, which begs the question why so few of them want to work with the Tories again. They favour Labour by about 3-1.
I'd love to know what goes on inside LD activists' heads.
Looks like the tories' tactics on UKIP is to imply that Farage is all p*ss and wind. He's not interested in the hard yards.
That means that 95% of polls will state the Conservative or Labour figure to within 2.88 points of the true figure. I haven't worked it out but that should mean that 99% are within ~ 4pts. I'm having a brain freeze on this but I think it should mean that similarly Labour's lead over the Conservatives shows the same error.
This is error based solely on whether the sample taken is representative of the population. Really you should include something more Bayesian, i.e. the probability that the calculation done simply does not represent people's voting intention properly. Distinguishing between these two types of error is not always clearly done!
Nate comment is a truism - the margin of error is usually expressed as a 95% confidence interval. But people don't pay much attention to that anyway, they take the headline number.
If Crosby was Dr Evil behind all this and I very much doubt it - he got a result by scaring Farage into running the wrong way/or at least keeping his mouth shut.
Maybe it was shock. Farage never thought the tories would actually do something about immigration (whatever its merits).
For the first time he looked like a political dilettante last week.
Opinion polls are really only interesting in broad sweeps, not on a case-by-case basis.
"...It seems to be generally agreed that the new mechanism will reduce levy affiliation by around 80 to 90 % from current levels. On top of this, general donations will be substantially reduced, as the impact of reducing the role of unions will increase internal resistance to donations. Inevitably, there will be the argument that if we only affiliate 10 to 20% of levy payers why should we donate more than 10 to 20% of the remaining levy on top of this?
Taken together these reductions will cost several million pounds each year. The obvious question is then how do the enthusiasts for opting-in propose to fill this gap?
There will be some increase in business donations, if Labour appears to be the next government. But we know how fickle business is in its support for Labour, unlike the loyal support received from the unions. There is only one way this proposal will work – through a massive increase in state funding of political parties. Labour in government could secure Lib-Dem support for this, and perhaps the Tories also, if there is a large enough cap on individual donations...
The CWU will participate in the Collins review. We will not dress up as a good thing the battering of the union link, nor the reduction in Party control via open primaries. By insisting upon examining the practical problems of opt-in and primaries, perhaps a re-think can be prompted. That is essential if, in future, the Party is to avoid bankruptcy or becoming a state-funded liberal party. http://labourlist.org/2013/08/labour-could-go-bankrupt-or-become-a-state-funded-liberal-party-unless-theres-a-re-think-on-opt-in/
As things stand the tories seem to have a much clearer focus and set of messages which they can promote to the public (even Owen Jones has picked up on most of them) while Labour still have the blank sheet of paper. This should work to the tories' advantage but Labour at least have the benefit of low expectations.
At the risk of being seriously over dramatic I do wonder if Ed is getting into the last chance saloon in persuading the British people that he has things to say that are worth listening to. Another speech about predistribution and the natives will be distinctly restless.
What can he say? Rail nationalisation as floated by Nick Palmer is one possibility. Something on zero hour contracts? Maybe an NHS hypothecated tax? I would be interested if there are lefties more tuned in to any internal debates that can highlight possible areas of policy development.
* Rail nationalisation
* Energy price caps (probably illegal)
* Massive housebuilding (which is up under the coalition anyway..)
It's when it's abused by employers (not giving enough hours, and not providing enough planning and notice on hours) theres a problem.
You're probably right.
I'd have thought the media would mostly focus on the union link angle, as that fits one of their pre-existing templates.
Are they going to say how they intend to raise them? (By cutting taxes?).
Of course the converse of 'Don't let Labour ruin it' relies on voters being nervous/still thinking Labour caused it all in the first place rather than America...
I'm quietly optimistic and very encouraged for the country whoever wins in 2015 - we need to get out of our sick bed and down the gym
95% Confidence intervals a universal polling standard ? One reason the Ashcroft polls are so good is that the sample size is so big that outliers should come about far less often if the same MoE metric is applied.
Previous poll they polled 187 UKIP IDers compared to the 20 they should have done and reduced 287 UKIP voters in the sample to 173 . In this poll they polled 219 UKIP IDers compared to the 20 they should have polled and reduced the number of UKIP voters from 274 to just 122 .
For the Conservatives in the previous poll weighting adjustments increased the number of people who said they would vote Conservative from 407 to 419 , in this poll it increased Conservative voters from 398 to 457 . Fewer people said they would vote Conservative in this poll , weighting adjustments increased the Conservative VI share % .
WTF?
In terms of policy I don't remember shedloads from any opposition at this stage in an electoral cycle, or that much more any closer to a GE. But Ed has failed to pin down a general direction of travel. And that is a failure of leadership, without doubt.
Soon he'll have more than the guardian..
Stephen Tall of LDV was at it the other week. Whatever Mark Wallace is thinking of - he's building a much broader church than Tim Monty did with his endless Kippery flirting with Helmer, Nadine et al.
I agree it is too soon for a full blown agenda but, as SO puts it, a direction of travel and a sense of the principles that will shape that direction seems essential to me. The tory conference is going to be (prematurely) triumphalist. Labour, and Ed in particular, need to respond.
I'm sure they can find something to say and it seems like natural ground for the Labout Party. Definitely one for them to look at and if nothing else come up with something meaningless.
@Plato Here comes another giant elephant trap just waiting for the Labour party to walk into, and yet again Ed Miliband has left it to others to kick off the debate and fill the vacuum he has left in the media. There is never a good time to raise the issue of increased state funding of political parties, but I cannot think of a worse time than right now to even suggest the notion in public.
Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg really don't want to be seen to be open to the idea of forming any kind of Coalition that would try and push through increased state funding by forcing an unreasonable cap on individual donations. We just have to remember the anger and cynicism that the expenses caused to get a flavour of how the public would react to this news. Come the next GE, the electorate will have to decide which party they trust to run the economy. The Labour party are already struggling on this issue as public services face yet more spending restraints. The idea that anyone would suggest spending yet more money we haven't got on political parties is just plain daft.
Why all the fuss? – Aunty doesn’t even think it warrants a mention on its Home-Page, it’s tucked away under ‘Business’ where it appears to be their fourth item..!
Some things never change.
blockquote class="Quote" rel="Plato">Crikey - @OwenJones84 has according to his Indy tweet follow button 127k Followers.
WTF?
"The avalanche has only just begun, but the Tories have been throwing rocks at Labour’s relationship with the unions for some time" http://www.totalpolitics.com/opinion/386457/brothers-up-in-arms.thtml
"The Mail’s deputy political editor Tim Shipman went on to scribble: “When Ed Miliband asked the leading union baron what three wishes he could grant if Labour wins power, the answer was straightforward.
“‘Trade union freedoms, trade union freedoms, trade union freedoms’ came the immediate response from Len McCluskey, who runs the giant Unite union. “Leaked details of the conversation last night sparked claims that a Labour government would seek to usher in new pro-union laws.”
But once more, the PM’s hopes that he’d started an avalanche were dashed. Shipman’s detailed revelations failed to get the crucial pickup. So – as is so often the case with political communication – it came down to “events” for the story to finally take light.
It took for the Labour Party’s extraordinary machinations in Falkirk for the revelations about Unite and Len McCluskey’s domination to come to life.
And boy how they’ve come to life. Happily for Mr Cameron, his team at Central Office had already done the digging. Once the media had an appetite, briefers were happy to let the Lobby gorge on the fare.
And the point? What better way to frame the May 2015 General Election as a Presidential contest? Mr Cameron’s biggest hope for re-election is to be contrasted with Mr Miliband in the public’s mind.
It’s going to be a straight “me versus the other guy” fight.
And the Prime Minister believes he will win that shootout every time..."
Anyone know using their Google Fu?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/business-news-markets-live/10222418/Business-news-and-markets-live.html
I am getting deja vu all over again. This definitely has a spoiler feel to it.
I assume you missed my post or are one of the few of your generation who eschew it!
Agreed. I wonder if the tories have the ground game to win a GE outright, given the membership meltdown that tim keeps alluding to.
I think we need a way of disbarring people who repeatedly create obviously legally ridiculous contracts from making any more contracts. Or at the very least, a requirement that people who do this stamp "bullshit" on all their legal documents.
Mr Jarvis, the shadow culture minister, said that Jim Messina, one of America’s most highly-rated Left-wing campaigners, would have to “justify his actions” after electing to assist the Tories.
It has been reported that Labour attempted to woo Mr Messina before he accepted an offer from the Conservatives.
Mr Jarvis said he did not know whether Labour had approached Mr Messina, however he admitted that his party now needs to make a similar appointment.
...Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Westminster Hour Mr Jarvis was asked why Mr Messina, a committed Democrat, would choose Mr Cameron over Ed Miliband, the Labour leader.
"He would have to respond to that himself and at the end of the day he'll have to look at himself in the mirror and justify his actions,” Mr Jarvis said..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10222541/New-Cameron-strategist-will-have-to-look-at-himself-in-the-mirror-Labour-minister-says.html
Feel free to throw rotten fruit at me.
I promise never to attend any future England test matches again.
I'm a curse.
Sleazy broken Labour and UKIP on the slide
Yeah the last populus was an outlier.
Since Montgomery left, ConHome doesn't cover parliamentary selection as well as before. Big fail for me....
What was the Conservative position in 2008, 2 years before the election? Let the Sunshine wins the Day, stick with Gordon's spending plan and the Broken Society? Anything else? The Left was just repeating "no substance, just imagine, lightweight" ad nauseam.
LD members needed here! Any of you gets the newsletter from Campaign for Gender Balance? On another place, they highlighted that the constituency listed at the top of their selection dates is in a LD held Enlighs seat...suggesting the MP is retiring....
so can you check and tell us who he is?
Minimum wage is ~£13k for a 40 hour week from October. Now presuming a family with two children under eleven, with Tax Credits involved, does anyone know how the two incomes would compare? - and what would be the saving to the Treasury?
Of course EdM would have to explain how employers (public and private sector) could afford to double the pay (and extra employers NIC).
I've done a dozen times to I find the odd relationship Labour has with the USA perplexing - it loves to hug the Democrats [who are to the right of the Tories on some issues] and yet is very anti-American almost as a matter of principle on everything else.
I give in trying to work out what's on. A bit like the Left's dislike of Jews on rather too many occasions. David Ward being the latest example. I'm not exercised much by it - just left scratching my head.
http://othemts.tumblr.com/post/55712060801/war-kitties-in-hammocks-carriers-and-other
How much longer can it hope to survive?
Particularly under Blair, the Party was dominated by liberals rather than social democrats.
Yep, keep being asked to log on even when the relevant (keep me logged on) box is ticked.
No.
England deserve to lose this match. They have been outplayed with bat and ball and Clarke has out thought Cook.
A loss may be the giant kick up the posterior that England deserve and perhaps need.
I wonder why that is?
A much better line would be: "It's a shame that someone who was forward-looking when working for Obama has chosen to work for the backward-looking Conservative Party. But it does not matter who the Conservatives hire: we believe our message will beat theirs."
Sometimes Labour seems to think of itself as the Cosa Nostra. How dare anyone move against the family.
Messina does not have to justify anything to anyone: indeed, the only people who have to explain things are the idiots who are mudraking now, but kept quiet whilst he was working for Obama.
Rainy night in Georgia (Manchester, and why wait for night)
Purple rain (any colour will do)
Raindrops keep falling on my head (I wish)
looks like Rain (looks not enough)
Let it rain (please)
Here comes the rain again (pretty please)
November rain (why wait)
Singing in the rain (I wish)
A hard rain's a'gonna fall (surely)
It's Manchester for goodness sake. Another hour may be too late.
On topic (or a recent one): much as it would be fantastically amusing, Lab are not going to announce anything resembling a strategy prior to mid-2014 at the earliest. They would be mad to and, in the words of a political titan, when it comes you can expect it to be a "known unknown".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23571739
1: Toilet users warned of tech flaw
2: Derren Brown 'terrified' by fan fall
3: Lab-grown burger unveiled in London
4: The man in hospital for 45 years
5: 'My breasts were like zeppelins'
6: Gascoigne fined for drunken assault
7: Six-hour train delay 'unacceptable'
8: Private girls' school set to close
9: Met police payout over G20 death
10: Falklands admiral Woodward dies
Let's just let that one hang in the air.
bendepear
@bendepear
I'm very pleased to announce the appointment of Paul Mason from BBC's Newsnight as our new Culure and Digital Editor
Just what dark troubled souls have been unleashed? And is it twitter? Or is it just people but now they have twitter? Or did twitter do something to them?
It's bizarre in its bizarreness.
Partly due to lack of competition. The incumbents know the jump from county to international is massive.
County cricket is a bankrupt anachronistic absurdity. It should have been put out to grass decades ago, in favour of fewer and better regional teams.
I believe this explains it...
"I’m sure the Guardian thinks their random political slogan generator is a harmless bit of fun inspired by Kevin Rudd’s fairly insipid campaign slogan. Let me disabuse them. I suspect many of the parties are probably flicking gently through it and writing down a few choice selections.
I once sat in a room of about 20 people, where we were invited to write a memorable line to adorn the platform at conference. Entirely predictably, this process was an unmitigated disaster. After an hour of coming up with any number of lines that randomly sorted words like New, Better, Fair, Green, Future, Britain, Fresh, Together and Change into a new order, we all agreed that perhaps it would be better if we got one person to write one memorable line with a single pertinent thought. We then, ahem, "discussed" for another hour who should write it.
Take a look at the last General Election. Without scrolling down, can you recall any party’s election slogan? In case you can’t, here’s a selection from the five biggest national parties at General Election 2010. Even when prompted can you recall whose is whose? And aren’t they all pretty interchangeable?
Vote for Change
Empowering the People
Fair is worth Fighting For
Change that Works for You
A Future Fair for All
The last one doesn’t even make sense (unless the party in question truly was proposing to give everyone who voted a futuristic helter-skelter and dodgems)..."
Been AWOL for a couple of hours.
The Reed Index can be downloaded from Reed's site with monthly PDF's going back to March 2010. http://www.reed.co.uk/recruiter/jobindex/archives
If you just want a quick answer to 'long' term trends then this chart from the Henderson website shows it to indexed to 100 in mid 2009.
http://www.henderson.com/getimage.ashx?id=2641
I am the first to say people wearing t-shirts saying "I hate the Army/Britain" however indelicately expressed should be free to their own opinions.
But standing with a mask and knife and making death threats on what is surely not an anonymous forum (have I got twitter wrong?)??
Still taking the taxpayers cash mind you - strange that the private sector didn't come in for either of these two (no laughing !)..
The Indy have managed the remarkable feat of choosing, for their top headline, an article so spectacularly stupid that one has to rub one's eyes in disbelief that anyone could have failed to notice the logical flaw in it::
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/big-lie-behind-the-bedroom-tax-families-trapped-with-nowhere-to-move-face-penalty-for-having-spare-room-8745597.html
Here is a link to the top 32 England batsmen of all time by test batting average, it includes Cook, Root, Trott, Pietersen and Bell
http://cricketarchive.com/Archive/Records/England/Test/Batting/Highest_Career_Batting_Average.html
Compulsory viewing for all. As British Cricket dies, its car manufacturing thrives.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMb17Et6Wwo
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 7m
Tories must be wary of EdM pointing at things & saying they are jolly expensive. I don't think. http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/08/tories-must-be-wary-of-ed-milibands-cost-of-living-gambit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=tories-must-be-wary-of-ed-milibands-cost-of-living-gambit …
Good historical novels include Nero's Heirs, by Allan Massie: CS Forester's Hornblower Series; Funeral Games, by Mary Renault; Sword at Sunset, by Rosemary Sutcliffe; The Caspian Gates by Harry Sidebottom; the Deceivers, by John Masters; the first Three books of Bernard Cornwell's Saxon series; the Boleyn Inheritance by Philippa Gregory.
The Warlord Chronicles by Cornwell are excellent as Morris Dancer said, but In my view, they're more fantasy than history. George Martin's Fevre Dream is a really good historical horror novel.
Its all very well pointing out things are jolly expensive.
How does ed plan to make them cheaper??
Flashman??? LOL.
Actually George McDonald Fraser could write. His account of the retreat from Kabul, seen through Flashman's eyes, is very good.
Although I think that video's the only time we'll see a Williams leading a Red Bull this season.
Oh, and if I were ever to get invited onto the Top Gear test track, I'd want to do it in a JCB 3CX (traditional) in honour of my childhood. Or a 4.5 tonne Thwaites dumper, which I learnt to drive on.