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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What we need is some Lynton Crosby betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What we need is some Lynton Crosby betting
For me the most interesting political story of the weekend was the Sunday Times piece, linked to in the Tweet above, about his planned covert operation to undermine UKIP.
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1) He's good.
2) Labour have already shot their bolt - they've made accusations and smears that do not stand up. They should have waited for a better time.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10222092/Cameron-strategy-guru-attacks-Clarkes-Ukip-remarks.html
Fag packets didn't work....try something else.....
Labour would be better off focusing on their own problems than indulging in displacement behaviour over Mr Who's He Again? This is the real battleground...
Paywall
" Confidence in the health of the economy has seen its biggest monthly leap in this Parliament, according to a poll. In a YouGov survey for The Times, 32 per cent predicted that they would be “satisfied” with the economy in 12 months’ time — up from 21 per cent in June.
Twenty-six per cent said that they were satisfied with the strength of the economy now, up from 14 per cent in June.
The optimism will be welcomed by the Tories, but Labour is to seize on the belief among voters that they are getting a disproportionately small bite of the apple, as the party begins a week of attacks over the cost of living. Overall, 68 per cent remain dissatisfied with the state of the economy..."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/fitzgerald-fuels-row-over-labour-front-for-snp-1-3029536
Mention the name Crosby to the average punter and they will either think you mean the area once represented by Shirley Williams or the old crooner Bing.
" The latest UK Business Confidence Monitor predicts that Britain’s economy could grow by 1 per cent in the third quarter of this year — the fastest since early 2010 — as consumer spending and optimism rises.
The survey, by ICAEW and Grant Thornton, indicated that British businesses expected turnover and profits in the next year to grow by 4.9 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively and were planning to raise staff numbers by 1.6 per cent in the next 12 months. Wages were forecast to grow by 1.8 per cent."
Spreadsheet emailed to you.
Look, a red squirrel. As ever, Labour is irrelevant to the internal machinations of the Conservative Party. It rather looks as if Crosby is being set up. If you are going to run a dirty tricks operation, then keep it secret: don't confess all to Uncle Rupert. So who leaked? If Crosby does stay, how will he interact with Messina, and whoever did think up the vans against UKIP gimmick?
Some Labour MPs have been having good campaigns, in exactly the way that MPs should. Stella Creasy and her campaign about pay-day lenders is one. It is an issue that directly effects many people at the lower end of the income scale. David Lammy and the problems in many of our inner-city communities is another.
Today's news about the growth in the number of people on zero-hour contracts is worrying. I wouldn't necessarily want to see them banned, but the potential for abuse is currently too high. IANAE, but I think I agree with Chukka Umunna on this: they should be the exception rather than the rule. This could be fertile ground for Labour, although the coalition is looking at the problem.
Labour need to take ownership of these campaigns, and others like them, if their upcoming 'living standards' attack is going to seem anything but self-serving.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23570345
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/The_4th_Agenda_5_July_2013.pdf
In General Elections my vote does not count - net agree:
Con: -23
Lab: -2
LibDem: +3
UKIP: +14
Politicians don't seem to have principles any more - net agree:
Con: +45
Lab: +67
LibDem: +45
UKIP: +93
Major parties have pretty much same policies - net agree:
Con: +23
Lab: +17
LibDem: +21
UKIP: +54
UKIP clear outliers while Labour disgruntlement may be because they are out of office - or may be a reflection of what we have seen elsewhere of the Miliband problem.
The case of the support being given by the SNP and Yes Scotland to Labour for Independence is becoming one such story."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-monteith-yes-campaign-heading-for-scandal-1-3029664
Not exactly news though, is it?
It's precisely what he did with "Not Ken Again" so the only surprise here is that he's shooting his bolt on the kippers rather than saving such an operation for little Ed. I'd presume he'll still try it on little Ed but he'll eventually have to decide whether 'red' Ed is Stalin and Scargill rollled into one or just plain ineffectual. The fact that CCHQ has kept flopping between those two shows you that they don't have 2015 nailed down yet.
"The Sunday Times also reported Crosby as attacking last week’s immigration moves which many had assumed had been shaped by him in the first place."
Spinner spins against counterproductive spin shocker. Campbell and Mandy did that all the time. Didn't make it any more believable then or now. Expect the inept tory spinners on here to still consider him a genius since they have the memory of a goldfish and have forgotten what happened at the May local elections and Eastleigh when the Crosby and Osbrowne master strategy of banging on about Europe and immigration was a triumph.
Messina seems like he'd do whatever he thought would help. http://prospect.org/article/strange-journey-jim-messina#13756852117391&action=collapse_widget&id=5854444
Hmm, given the news over the last few days concerning Cruddas' winning of his liable cases against everyone under the sun, this is hardly a comparison that should bring joy to the hearts of Tory members.
I wonder how long it will be until Cameron finally makes that apology to Cruddas?
Why do the Left need bogeymen ? This time it's Crosby, last time it was Murdoch. Is it to frighten supporters in to turning out ?
http://wingsoverscotland.com/running-scared/
I find it the most dislikeable feature of Leftish politics. And it's all not casual prejudice but targeted and sustained to single out their rivals and kill them off.
Righties aren't perfect by a long chalk but I can't recall a laundry list of bogeymen they've systematically sought to bring down.
For example - Labourlist trying to start a campaign to force Mr Messina to go using Obama FFS or the Guardian *discovering* he's really an evil homophobe about a decade ago. It's pitiful and very unattractive. Why do the Left need bogeymen ? This time it's Crosby, last time it was Murdoch. Is it to frighten supporters in to turning out ?
I hope you've not been showing the gentle folk of Ludlow the ways of your metropolitan past
"THE controversial Labour for Independence group (LFI), which is accused of being an SNP front, is facing new questions over its authenticity after one of its office-bearers admitted being a long-term SNP activist who switched to Labour just a few months ago with the aim of undermining the party over the referendum."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/fresh-questions-raised-over-pro-independence-groups-labour-credentials.21774204
Obviously because the lefty Cruddas, the lefty Sunday Times and the lefty kippers are all being manipulated by the lefty 'genius' little Ed because labour hate Crosby. Or something equally dimwitted. ;^ )
It calls on the SNP administration to set out what would happen if negotiations about EU membership could not be concluded in the 16-month window between a Yes vote and “Independence Day”, the date on which Scotland would become an independent nation.
“Would Independence Day be moved back to allow for a conclusion to negotiations or would Independence Day be a fixed date requiring Scotland to leave the EU and rejoin when the negotiations were concluded?” the paper asks. Meanwhile, Westminster is urged to say whether it would support an application by an independent Scotland to join the EU."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/independence-call-for-legal-advice-on-eu-membership-1-3029688
No doubt just another scare story in the detail free onward march to independence......
'Why do the left need bogeymen'
What like the 'loony left'! I don't believe you said that. You must be channeling Fitilass.. Labour aren't even particularly good at it
It is not Labour briefing against Crosby. This is blue on blue.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/04/referendum-talk-cheap-campaigning-hard-part
"Senior Liberal Democrats in Scotland worry about Labour's internal tensions.
They worry with good cause. There is a small echo of the disastrous AV campaign, when Labour's internal differences and those tensions between Miliband and Clegg led to a one-sided outcome."
"What is more surprising is the degree to which the SNP has struggled to adapt to the demands of a referendum campaign. Its leading figures spent much energy on timing, the question on the ballot paper and securing a reduction in voting age to 16. Now that the campaign is under way, concerns are being raised about how lacklustre it is and at how unprepared advocates of independence are when asked detailed questions about the implications for the economy, public services, the BBC and the rest."
If I had to guess, I'd say it was either a prompt to go digging or more likely a Kipper leaner who wanted to generate some outrage sympathy. They are losing voters back to the Tories.
Either way - I find it entirely implausible. Local newspapers carry stories about stupid things all councillors do and say already. And with about 8000 of them - the Tories are more likely to have more of this stuff. Hence why we don't tend to get parties attacking each other as they're all guilty.
Certainly on Twitter it got Kipper activists terribly worked up = comparing it to Watergate no less!
*chortle*
On zero hours contracts, the issue is surely the implied exploitation. Sometimes they're convenient if the relationship is genuinely casual - I have a contract with a dozen agencies to offer me translations when they feel like it, and I take them if it's convenient. The sort of thing we need to stamp out is the arrangement that involves the worker being constantly hanging around on the off-chance that a job becomes free, with no employment rights even if in reality regularly employed.
"THE SNP spent more than £500,000 last year in pursuit of a Yes vote in the independence referendum, despite Alex Salmond saying the campaign was still at the "phoney war" stage."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/snp-spends-500000-but-its-just-a-phoney-war.21774195
I'm here - pick on me, Carlotta is here too. Yet you use @Fitalass' name in vain. Come on man!
That's probably wrong, but easily possible.
And that's even if the story is reported correctly. I have a very healthy distrust of all our media. If a story's unsourced about any party without any evidence, if someone is not willing to put their name to it, then treat it with a pinch of salt. Even then it's far too easy to get caught out ...
Agree on zero-hour contracts - as I said, I don't want them to be banned. They are particularly iniquitous when the employee cannot get other work in the meantime.
Leap from bed in wee small hours to dredge the Scotsman (with occasional forays to the Telegraph and Spectator) for any fear mongering, anti-independence tidbit, post it up, wait, palms itching, for a response, then expectorate the rest of their Hootsman haul, squawking all the time about 'links', 'Victories for Eck' and 'rue the day'.
Passes the time till one dies I suppose.
Crosby has been attacked for being evil, a racist bigot, a man with malign motives who is using his dark skills to change policy for personal gain, Messina a homophobe - and on and on. There is a very big difference between attacking someone on a personal level and what they stand for.
As I said, I find it very unattractive and I wish the Left would pack it in.
I hope they continue to share what the horse's mouth is saying without journalists *interpreting it* for us.
If you don't want to be accused of being a racist bigot then don't use terms like "Fucking Muslims"
So, to the Law Society's question - delay independence until (re-)accession negotiated, or go ahead on set date and re-join later?
An unnamed source who wasn't at the meeting who provided lashings of detail...that tried to hurt the Tory's campaign hard man?
Whether the money isn't there to buy the British talent or whether Labour are keeping their powder dry till the election I don't know. But what I do know is there will be some very bemused and amused faces around the watering holes of the West End at the moment.
I don't care much about the Crosby chatter. In broad political terms the economy remains king, and in the present I reckon most people will be talking about Gibraltar over the breakfast table.
Iain Roberts @CllrIainRoberts
Immigration debate rarely changes - in 2007 Labour proposed their plan "to stop illegal immigrants getting housing, healthcare or work".
Iain Roberts @CllrIainRoberts
In 2007, Labour Home Sec John Reid announced a clampdown on "foreigners [who] come to this country illegitimately and steal our benefits"
http://www.newscatalonia.com/2013/07/is-september-14th-catalonias-best-day.html
Apologies for going off topic but I wanted to pick the brains of the pb.com community on reading recommendations, as I remember a superb, similar post a couple of years ago.
I am looking for books in three broad categories, any suggestions would be appreciated:
(1) Historical, action fiction - a bit like Game of Thrones but not that, as I don't want to ruin the TV series!
(2) Political/Sports strategy - in short, I love books about campaigning, developing successful delivery structures, marketing, with transferable skills. Anything from data management to marginal gains.
(3) Biographies - mainly of foreign policy leaders in the format of Mayor Giuliani's or of sportsman which outlines their training regimes.
All suggestions gratefully received.
To kick-start proceedings myself, I really enjoyed the book on NFL coach Bill Walsh, The Score Takes Care of Itself.
There might also be a reluctance to have your name connected to any particular party, and to put your head above the parapet. Look at the stupid attacks Messina and Crosby are getting: why put your head above the parapet in the main country you work in?
We've already seen infantile calls from some on the left for the clients of Crosby's company to be unveiled. We all know what would follow: a fishing and smear campaign. And what after that? Protesters outside companies that do business with Crosby?
Why should someone who relies on working with many different clients become known as working for one particular party in the country they do their main work in?
Of course, there's the Sharpe books (by the same author).
Anyone else in Europe feel like joining in? Flanders? Venice?
WoS makes no claims for objectivity. The main difference is that he and his readers are actively involved in the Independence debate on various levels and have an investment in the outcome; any 'debate' that goes on here (which, lets face it, is a backwater on the subject) is mainly for people that aren't and haven't. Also, I don't think WoS is trying to troll Unionists.
If you think engaging with you represents some kind of Olympian discussion of policy, you're delusional.
Nick Palmer EXMP, LABPPC, PB, UNITE, RSPCA, BHS, M&S(Pants), PhD, CDM(bar)
And I really think calling the Law Society of Scotland trolls more than a little desperate.....
They're the best historical stuff I've read this year. Then again, I love architecture.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Pillars-Earth-Ken-Follett/dp/0330450131
The Count of Monte Cristo
I must read it again.
I can confirm it is raining in Manchester, and Old Trafford in particular.
I'm confident in saying that by this evening, England will have retained the Ashes for the third consecutive series.
Massive figure.
Calling Ed Balls...
Key Points:
• Faster increase in new sales volumes as market conditions continue to strengthen
• Backlogs rise at sharpest rate since February 2000
• Business confidence strengthens to highest level for 15 months
Summary:
The UK service sector expanded at its quickest pace for over six-and-a-half years in July as new business continued to rise strongly amid evidence of an improvement in market conditions. The strong gain in new work placed pressure on capacity, leading to a marked increase in backlogs of work and encouraged solid payroll growth.
Service providers were also optimistic about future activity levels while, on the price front, output charges were raised to the greatest degree since June 2011.
The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index climbed to its highest reading since December 2006 during July, posting 60.2, up from 56.9 in June.Above 50.0 readings have now been recorded for seven months in a row, with growth accelerating continuously throughout this period.
Boy George has generated so much escape velocity we will all be able to holiday on the Sun this year.
Conn Iggulden's conqueror & emperor series. He also has a 'favourite books' page on his website.
http://www.conniggulden.com/conn-iggulden-recommends/
"The experience economy" by Pine and Gilmore.
Luckily, voters are too sane to take any interest in such nonsense, and I suppose as a displacement activiity for the left with nothing else to say, it's fairly harmless.
"We’re clearing up Labour’s mess. Labour overspent and now we’re balancing the books. A national deficit is like a household budget. Welfare is out of control and lining the pockets of the skivers. The unemployed person or immigrant down the road is living off your hard-earned taxes. Labour is in the pocket of union barons.
Summing up the Tories’ message – poisonous and drenched in myths as it is – in quick, sharp sentences is remarkably easy to do. It has been relentlessly, remorselessly, tediously hammered into the electorate’s skulls. Ministers, backbenchers, and Tory media outriders have been disciplined members of this co-ordinated campaign. When yet another second-rate Tory standard-bearer proclaims that “We’re clearing up the mess Labour left us” on Question Time, hundreds of thousands of lefties instantly curl up in a foetal position, pulling their hair out in lumps, yelping in anguish. But if nonsense is repeated incessantly and is met with a weak challenge, it can soon become received wisdom.
The Tories’ hiring of Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign supremo Jim Messina provoked a sense of betrayal among Labour activists smitten with the current occupant of the White House. Odd, given most British Conservatives would be perfectly politically at home in the US Democratic Party...
Where are Labour? Apparently the rationale of Ed Miliband’s advisers for the last three years can be summed up as: “Hey, what’s the rush!” Being coaxed into setting out policies is a Tory trap. “Zen socialism”, it’s been called. It has proved a tragic mistake. Labour didn’t need to set out fully-costed policies at this stage: it just needed to stick to clear, sharp messages that were repeated ad infinitum. Its failure to do so has simply allowed the Tories to set the terms of debate, to allow their narrative to seize control of the public consciousness, and to constantly force Labour on to the defensive.
Paul Smith, the Senior Economist of Markit, stated:
a composite reading of the respective output balances from all three PMI surveys reached a series record high during July, driven by the sharpest increase in new business since March 2004.
Particularly strong evidence of employment growth with service order backlogs indicating more to follow.
The multi volume biog of Churchill by his son and Martin Gilbert is outstanding ..... although for holiday reading you'll require a large trunk to pack them and a round the world cruise to have time to read them !!