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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What we need is some Lynton Crosby betting

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  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Link?

    It's a bit early in the week to comprehensively lose the will to live by trawling through your old posts.

    And I really think calling the Law Society of Scotland trolls more than a little desperate.....

    What would you say is the best antonym to the word 'witty'?

    Scotch?

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ainsley Thomson
    @Ainsley_Thomson
    With manufacturing and construction PMIs also performing strongly, the UK composite PMI is now the highest since records begun in 1998

    UK economics and political reporter at Dow Jones Newswires & @WSJ.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Paul Goodman @PaulGoodmanCH
    Best stat from @sundersays's fine WWI piece on @ConHome today is that 7% of under 24s think Thatcher was PM in 1918. bit.ly/1b5YIbq
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If the Bank of England could hold off reviewing interest rates until my re-fix of my mortgage has gone through, I'd be much obliged.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,819

    Link?

    It's a bit early in the week to comprehensively lose the will to live by trawling through your old posts.
    So just a smear then.

    Here's The Law Society of Scotland's paper you'd do anything to avoid discussing:

    http://www.lawscot.org.uk/media/647741/scotlands constitutional future 2013_main.pdf

    A few questions on currency too:
    Questions to be answered
    By the Scottish Government
    How would the Scottish Government’s preferred currency option (the pound) function in the light of the UK Government’s stated position and what contingency plans exist if the UK Government does not agree?

    What plans has the Scottish Government for financial infrastructure, financial regulation, taxation policy and consumer protection?

    How will independence affect the legal system, those who use it and the legal profession?

    What share of assets and liabilities does the Scottish Government believe it should assume?

    By the UK Government
    What share of assets and liabilities would they want the Scottish Government to assume?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    I've looked into the Runes and I can tell you Lynton will survive and will mastermind not only Camerons re-election with a small majority in 2015 and Boris's landslide general election win in 2019. :O
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Plato said:
    That's actually a pretty devastating article. Leaving aside the question of whether one agrees with Owen Jones' politics, it's hard to disagree with his analysis of Ed M's messaging:

    Ed Miliband toys with a concept, but then appears to get bored with it and moves on. There was the “squeezed middle”, a flawed concept, but one which at least tapped into the longest fall in living standards on record. There was the “British promise”, which focused on the nation’s children being poorer than their parents for the first time since the Second World War. There was “responsible capitalism” – a term I happen to hate – which speaks of predatory capitalists ripping society off. There was “predistribution”, an appallingly wonky term which needed translating into English, but which meant that the consequences of inequality were expensive, so it was better to deal with the causes. Whatever the problems with these messages, at least they were something.

    In fact, the list is far from complete. There was 'one-nation Labour'. There was 'refounding Labour'. The messaging on Osborne's spending cuts has veered randomly from opposing everything to accepting everything.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Plato said:

    Ainsley Thomson
    @Ainsley_Thomson

    With manufacturing and construction PMIs also performing strongly, the UK composite PMI is now the highest since records begun in 1998


    Ed Balls getting every call wrong at the start of this year

    "In an interview with The Independent on Sunday, Mr Balls said: ....

    This is the Osborne-Cameron way, it's reckless. They are taking the most reckless political gamble with the economy, for political reasons, and it's not paid off. It's been economically catastrophic."


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ed-balls-pressure-grows-for-plan-b-as-triple-dip-threatens-8468379.html
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MaxPB said:

    60.2 Services PMI.

    Massive figure.

    Very encouraging - but obviously the "wrong type of growth" ;)

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Plato said:
    That's actually a pretty devastating article. Leaving aside the question of whether one agrees with Owen Jones' politics, it's hard to disagree with his analysis of Ed M's messaging:

    Ed Miliband toys with a concept, but then appears to get bored with it and moves on. There was the “squeezed middle”, a flawed concept, but one which at least tapped into the longest fall in living standards on record. There was the “British promise”, which focused on the nation’s children being poorer than their parents for the first time since the Second World War. There was “responsible capitalism” – a term I happen to hate – which speaks of predatory capitalists ripping society off. There was “predistribution”, an appallingly wonky term which needed translating into English, but which meant that the consequences of inequality were expensive, so it was better to deal with the causes. Whatever the problems with these messages, at least they were something.

    In fact, the list is far from complete. There was 'one-nation Labour'. There was 'refounding Labour'. The messaging on Osborne's spending cuts has veered randomly from opposing everything to accepting everything.
    I have an even shorter message 'Ed's crap'.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited August 2013

    Plato said:
    That's actually a pretty devastating article. Leaving aside the question of whether one agrees with Owen Jones' politics, it's hard to disagree with his analysis of Ed M's messaging:

    Ed Miliband toys with a concept, but then appears to get bored with it and moves on. There was the “squeezed middle”, a flawed concept, but one which at least tapped into the longest fall in living standards on record. There was the “British promise”, which focused on the nation’s children being poorer than their parents for the first time since the Second World War. There was “responsible capitalism” – a term I happen to hate – which speaks of predatory capitalists ripping society off. There was “predistribution”, an appallingly wonky term which needed translating into English, but which meant that the consequences of inequality were expensive, so it was better to deal with the causes. Whatever the problems with these messages, at least they were something.

    In fact, the list is far from complete. There was 'one-nation Labour'. There was 'refounding Labour'. The messaging on Osborne's spending cuts has veered randomly from opposing everything to accepting everything.
    Owen seems to be attacking the OGH-tim theory of always to early too bring out policies or at least principles - who is right ?



  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    Yet more good news. When will it stop coming?

    This time on jobs with the publication of the Reed Jobs Index for July.

    The latest Reed Job Index, which is compiled using data from around 150,000 vacancies and over 10,000 employers advertised on reed.co.uk, showed that July 2013 is up 17% year on year, while job opportunities in the construction and property sector increased by 92% on July 2012.

    Growth has been steady throughout 2013, with the July Job Index six points higher than the year to date average (155). Other sectors which showed substantial increases year on year were training (62%), education (51%) and leisure and tourism (51%).

    For the second consecutive month Scotland had the greatest growth in new job opportunities year on year, up 35% on July 2012. This level of growth is closely followed by Yorkshire and Humber (29%) and the North West (22%).

    Overall, the Job Index from reed.co.uk – the UK’s largest job site – now stands at 161, up from 138 at the beginning of the year.


    time for tim to become a Scottish Estate Agent.
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    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Thanks everyone so far for the suggestions. I note @AnotherDave suggestion of Conn Iggulden's books. I have read Emperor and I am half way through the series on Genghis Khan. @JackW the Churchill books sound great, but I have now gone all early 21st century and have a Kindle, so I am not sure they are in that format yet!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    TGOHF said:

    Plato said:
    That's actually a pretty devastating article. Leaving aside the question of whether one agrees with Owen Jones' politics, it's hard to disagree with his analysis of Ed M's messaging:

    Ed Miliband toys with a concept, but then appears to get bored with it and moves on. There was the “squeezed middle”, a flawed concept, but one which at least tapped into the longest fall in living standards on record. There was the “British promise”, which focused on the nation’s children being poorer than their parents for the first time since the Second World War. There was “responsible capitalism” – a term I happen to hate – which speaks of predatory capitalists ripping society off. There was “predistribution”, an appallingly wonky term which needed translating into English, but which meant that the consequences of inequality were expensive, so it was better to deal with the causes. Whatever the problems with these messages, at least they were something.

    In fact, the list is far from complete. There was 'one-nation Labour'. There was 'refounding Labour'. The messaging on Osborne's spending cuts has veered randomly from opposing everything to accepting everything.
    Owen seems to be attacking the OGH-tim theory of always to early too bring out policies or at least principles - who is right ?



    It's not just about policies, it's about Ed's (and labours) principles and broad strokes.

    They could have policies, for example nationalisation of the railways, or living wage/ large minimum wage increases. No way things like that would be nicked by other parties..
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Meanwhile....in France:
    Open Europe ‏@OpenEurope 3m
    French Services PMI (Jul F) M/M 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3) (@RANsquawk)

    I can't wait for Ed to introduce Hollande type policies so we can have powerful figures like that....
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I remember once being told that PMI correlates best with the second derivative of GDP, i.e. the growth in growth rather than merely GDP growth itself.

    Also, Mike, "private meeting". "Entire strategy leaked". At least one person in the room responsible for headlines. Something's not what it seems.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I don't think Owen is an idiot - he clearly isn't - I find his desire to pretend we live in Billy Elliottland rather odd and his politics juvenile but at least he sticks by his opinions.

    There's been a trend for Labourites frustrated by EdM to speak out or stay conspicuously silent. We've had Mudie [first man to call for getting rid of Tony] having his 2p, another MP following his lead and a wealth of leftier voices joining in from the chatterati.

    Where is Hattie and Balls and ... ? Mr Hodges noted that EdM had no Praetorian guard, I think he's being proven right. IIRC Saqid Khan was the best of the Shadow Cabinet wheeled out.

    Plato said:
    That's actually a pretty devastating article. Leaving aside the question of whether one agrees with Owen Jones' politics, it's hard to disagree with his analysis of Ed M's messaging:

    Ed Miliband toys with a concept, but then appears to get bored with it and moves on. There was the “squeezed middle”, a flawed concept, but one which at least tapped into the longest fall in living standards on record. There was the “British promise”, which focused on the nation’s children being poorer than their parents for the first time since the Second World War. There was “responsible capitalism” – a term I happen to hate – which speaks of predatory capitalists ripping society off. There was “predistribution”, an appallingly wonky term which needed translating into English, but which meant that the consequences of inequality were expensive, so it was better to deal with the causes. Whatever the problems with these messages, at least they were something.

    In fact, the list is far from complete. There was 'one-nation Labour'. There was 'refounding Labour'. The messaging on Osborne's spending cuts has veered randomly from opposing everything to accepting everything.
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    AveryLP said:

    Yet more good news. When will it stop coming?

    This time on jobs with the publication of the Reed Jobs Index for July.

    The latest Reed Job Index, which is compiled using data from around 150,000 vacancies and over 10,000 employers advertised on reed.co.uk, showed that July 2013 is up 17% year on year, while job opportunities in the construction and property sector increased by 92% on July 2012.

    Growth has been steady throughout 2013, with the July Job Index six points higher than the year to date average (155). Other sectors which showed substantial increases year on year were training (62%), education (51%) and leisure and tourism (51%).

    For the second consecutive month Scotland had the greatest growth in new job opportunities year on year, up 35% on July 2012. This level of growth is closely followed by Yorkshire and Humber (29%) and the North West (22%).

    Overall, the Job Index from reed.co.uk – the UK’s largest job site – now stands at 161, up from 138 at the beginning of the year.


    time for tim to become a Scottish Estate Agent.

    What's the long-term average for that index, just vaguely, do you know?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,443
    Several months ago I forecast (guessed) that interest rates would start to rise in January. I still don't think that is far off. It won't be much but my guess is there will be 3 or 4 0.25% rises during the course of next year.

    The PMIs are fantastic but all of them point to capacity restraints. It is inevitable that this spurt of growth is going to be accompanied by higher inflation. This will be a problem by the end of this year and into next. Inflation is another price we will have to pay for the debt.

    The fact that the economy has stubbornly remained flat on its back for 4 years now should not obscure the fact that throughout that period under both governments the UK (and most of the rest of the west) have been running the loosest, most pro-growth policies in history with record low interest rates, the printing of £375bn of extra money, huge deficits and a weak currency.

    When things start to go in that scenario things should really go despite the huge drag of debt. The economy, and the political scene, is going to look very different by early next year. Labour run the risk that by the time they get the falling living standards meme going it will already be untrue. Once again it rather raises the question of where they have been all summer.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Plato said:
    That's actually a pretty devastating article. Leaving aside the question of whether one agrees with Owen Jones' politics, it's hard to disagree with his analysis of Ed M's messaging:

    Ed Miliband toys with a concept, but then appears to get bored with it and moves on. There was the “squeezed middle”, a flawed concept, but one which at least tapped into the longest fall in living standards on record. There was the “British promise”, which focused on the nation’s children being poorer than their parents for the first time since the Second World War. There was “responsible capitalism” – a term I happen to hate – which speaks of predatory capitalists ripping society off. There was “predistribution”, an appallingly wonky term which needed translating into English, but which meant that the consequences of inequality were expensive, so it was better to deal with the causes. Whatever the problems with these messages, at least they were something.

    In fact, the list is far from complete. There was 'one-nation Labour'. There was 'refounding Labour'. The messaging on Osborne's spending cuts has veered randomly from opposing everything to accepting everything.
    Owen seems to be attacking the OGH-tim theory of always to early too bring out policies or at least principles - who is right ?



    It's not just about policies, it's about Ed's (and labours) principles and broad strokes.

    They could have policies, for example nationalisation of the railways, or living wage/ large minimum wage increases. No way things like that would be nicked by other parties..
    Labour don't seem to be able to give up the "something for nothing" culture - that is the cancer at their heart.


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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,916
    @Alanbrooke

    "how british marketing is one of the best in the world is beyond me. We ape US sales push, british marketing is simply a me too product."

    The international Awards have been dominated by the UK and the US for years. One or two European countries notably Holland have put up a showing lately but what originality there has been has come from South America. Germany's first 'Lion' for several years was won for Mercedes but even there they used a British Director. (Modesty forbids me from mentioning him!)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Meanwhile....in France:
    Open Europe ‏@OpenEurope 3m
    French Services PMI (Jul F) M/M 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3) (@RANsquawk)

    I can't wait for Ed to introduce Hollande type policies so we can have powerful figures like that....

    Ouch. From TopGear last night - apparently the Nissan plant in Washington makes more cars than all of Italy...
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,350
    AveryLP said:


    What would you say is the best antonym to the word 'witty'?

    Scotch?



    Yup, that's certainly an example of the leaden, nationality-based, English sense of humour that's the antithesis of wit.

    'The adjective or noun Scotch is an early modern English (16th century) contraction of the English word Scottish.'

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,017
    Mr. Divvie, the British sense of humour is renowned for its excellence throughout the world.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYtYBI6eZ3E
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,819
    JamesM said:


    (1) Historical, action fiction - a bit like Game of Thrones but not that, as I don't want to ruin the TV series!

    Robert Harris does a fine line in historical fiction - notably Fatherland (Hitler wins) and the Roman series.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,350

    Mr. Divvie, the British sense of humour is renowned for its excellence throughout the world.

    But we were talking of a different animal, to wit, wit. Interesting that English needs to use the name of an Irishman to epitomise wit.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    LOL where's BenM today?

    I really would like him to explain how these PMI figures are possible without the engine of state spending...

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,017
    Mr. Taffys, to be fair Mr. M (whose child I trust is doing well) was very even-handed and positive about good economic news when we had it recently.
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    Play to start at 11:30.

    Australia have declared.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I see a lot of people saw the Conservative PPB from Top Gear last night!

    UK TV Ratings @TVRatingsUK
    8pm (inc +1 in brackets): Countryfile 5.62m; Top Gear 4.68m; Mr and Mrs 3.36m (3.63m); The Mill 1.98m (2.28m); Once Upon a Time 711k (819k).
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Meanwhile....in France:
    Open Europe ‏@OpenEurope 3m
    French Services PMI (Jul F) M/M 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3) (@RANsquawk)

    I can't wait for Ed to introduce Hollande type policies so we can have powerful figures like that....

    Ouch. From TopGear last night - apparently the Nissan plant in Washington makes more cars than all of Italy...
    Didn't know you are a petrolhead!

    I'd still prefer a Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati or even an Alfa to a Nissan.
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited August 2013
    As to space capacity, DavidL, I'm not sure. The IFS say this:
    Most commentators agree that the best approach is to use a range of different indicators to try to proxy the level of spare capacity. But these indicators do not always corroborate one another. For example, labour market data suggest that the UK has a significant amount of spare capacity, with the unemployment rate around 3ppts higher than pre-recession levels and earnings growth very muted despite inflation having been persistently high. Yet business survey results appear to tell a markedly different story, with respondents reporting levels of capacity utilisation in the production industries that are above long-term average... a recent working paper found that estimates of the output gap have become progressively more prone to revision and ‘unreliable’ over time"
    I would be tempted to say something rather different. Normally a large rise in unemployment, and productivity, in a period of recession, indicates a large degree of space capacity. Neither has happened. But I think it would be a mistake to think that what we've replaced it does not indicate such spare capacity. Therefore I am rather more optimistic about inflation in the next couple of years.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    taffys said:

    LOL where's BenM today?

    I really would like him to explain how these PMI figures are possible without the engine of state spending...

    @BenM is generous as ever

    RT @BenM_Kent: #UK #PMIs confirm economic recovery is at last under way
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I see a lot of people saw the Conservative PPB from Top Gear last night!

    I hope everybody who knocks the BBC for leftist bias will remember this comment....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Plato said:

    taffys said:

    LOL where's BenM today?

    I really would like him to explain how these PMI figures are possible without the engine of state spending...

    @BenM is generous as ever

    RT @BenM_Kent: #UK #PMIs confirm economic recovery is at last under way
    Top man is BenM - always welcomes good news.

    Where's tim btw ?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Meanwhile....in France:
    Open Europe ‏@OpenEurope 3m
    French Services PMI (Jul F) M/M 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3) (@RANsquawk)

    I can't wait for Ed to introduce Hollande type policies so we can have powerful figures like that....

    Ouch. From TopGear last night - apparently the Nissan plant in Washington makes more cars than all of Italy...
    Didn't know you are a petrolhead!

    I'd still prefer a Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati or even an Alfa to a Nissan.
    Oh, I used to love TG before it got a bit silly - I used to be a classic car nerd and do the shows/Goodwood Festivals etc. I had a concours Triumph Spitfire and a GT6 all restored by me and hubby.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Interesting lead article from the Huff about Britain's seaside towns becoming 'dumping grounds' for councils seeking cheap accommodation for claimants (Blackpool, Margate, Clacton and a few others are cited).

    Are these demographic movements significant enough to change the electoral shake-up in these areas I wonder?
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    The telegraph says the lobbying company at the meeting with Crosby is Westbourne.
    Its Director is James Bethell. A man tinvolved with this pro-EC org headed up by Ken Clarke and Mandelson.
    http://britishinfluence.org/europewatch-summary-articles/item/james-bethell
    http://britishinfluence.org/the-future-of-europe-forum

    A man who previously worked at the Sunday Times and with Politics Home (owned by Ashcroft). Ashcroft opposed Crosby' s appointment.

    Anyone able to join the dots?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    taffys said:

    I see a lot of people saw the Conservative PPB from Top Gear last night!

    I hope everybody who knocks the BBC for leftist bias will remember this comment....

    TBF, Jeremy was very ****ed off that BBC2 followed his festival of British motoring with a documentary praising the German car industry... his Twitter account is worth checking.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Big Tory jump

    Populus @PopulusPolls
    New Populus VI figures: Lab 38 (↓2); Cons 33 (↑4); LD 12 (↑1); UKIP 9 (↓3); Oth 8 (↑1)
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Meanwhile....in France:
    Open Europe ‏@OpenEurope 3m
    French Services PMI (Jul F) M/M 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3) (@RANsquawk)

    I can't wait for Ed to introduce Hollande type policies so we can have powerful figures like that....

    Ouch. From TopGear last night - apparently the Nissan plant in Washington makes more cars than all of Italy...
    Didn't know you are a petrolhead!

    I'd still prefer a Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati or even an Alfa to a Nissan.
    Oh, I used to love TG before it got a bit silly - I used to be a classic car nerd and do the shows/Goodwood Festivals etc. I had a concours Triumph Spitfire and a GT6 all restored by me and hubby.
    Did you ever go to the Goodwood Ball at Festival of Speed?

    Agree TG has got a bit silly, prefer May and Clarkson on their own.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Lord Palmerston @Lord_Palmerston
    .@ChukaUmunna Figures from UNISON tell us 0-hours contracts tripled under Labour. Where was your indignation then? bit.ly/15GMDXZ
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Plato said:

    Big Tory jump

    Populus @PopulusPolls
    New Populus VI figures: Lab 38 (↓2); Cons 33 (↑4); LD 12 (↑1); UKIP 9 (↓3); Oth 8 (↑1)

    Bigger coalition jump ;)



  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Meanwhile....in France:
    Open Europe ‏@OpenEurope 3m
    French Services PMI (Jul F) M/M 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3) (@RANsquawk)

    I can't wait for Ed to introduce Hollande type policies so we can have powerful figures like that....

    Ouch. From TopGear last night - apparently the Nissan plant in Washington makes more cars than all of Italy...
    Didn't know you are a petrolhead!

    I'd still prefer a Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati or even an Alfa to a Nissan.
    Oh, I used to love TG before it got a bit silly - I used to be a classic car nerd and do the shows/Goodwood Festivals etc. I had a concours Triumph Spitfire and a GT6 all restored by me and hubby.
    Did you ever go to the Goodwood Ball at Festival of Speed?

    Agree TG has got a bit silly, prefer May and Clarkson on their own.
    Never did but I had a friend who resembled May and penned Kofi's Tokyo speech as a host once - we were legless and like space hoppers after a day of Cliquot and lobster.

    I have no idea how we got home.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157

    The telegraph says the lobbying company at the meeting with Crosby is Westbourne.
    Its Director is James Bethell. A man tinvolved with this pro-EC org headed up by Ken Clarke and Mandelson.
    http://britishinfluence.org/europewatch-summary-articles/item/james-bethell
    http://britishinfluence.org/the-future-of-europe-forum

    A man who previously worked at the Sunday Times and with Politics Home (owned by Ashcroft). Ashcroft opposed Crosby' s appointment.

    Anyone able to join the dots?

    Ashcroft implementing strategy by in Messina would be a much more fearsome-sounding combination than Crosby implementing strategy by Messina.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,443
    Grandiose said:

    As to space capacity, DavidL, I'm not sure. The IFS say this:

    Most commentators agree that the best approach is to use a range of different indicators to try to proxy the level of spare capacity. But these indicators do not always corroborate one another. For example, labour market data suggest that the UK has a significant amount of spare capacity, with the unemployment rate around 3ppts higher than pre-recession levels and earnings growth very muted despite inflation having been persistently high. Yet business survey results appear to tell a markedly different story, with respondents reporting levels of capacity utilisation in the production industries that are above long-term average... a recent working paper found that estimates of the output gap have become progressively more prone to revision and ‘unreliable’ over time"
    I would be tempted to say something rather different. Normally a large rise in unemployment, and productivity, in a period of recession, indicates a large degree of space capacity. Neither has happened. But I think it would be a mistake to think that what we've replaced it does not indicate such spare capacity. Therefore I am rather more optimistic about inflation in the next couple of years.

    Measuring output gaps has always been problematic and has become increasingly so since services dominated the economy. What we are seeing already in construction and manufacturing is a run down of stocks and an increase in employment. These are both good things, no doubt about it, but when companies who have struggled under their own version of austerity for years now see the order book fill prices will inevitably creep up.

    Similarly, if we return to real wage growth (something I suspect has happened already amongst those with the right skills but which will spread) the pressures on retail will be reduced too.

    For monetarists the last 5 years have been bewildering. Has all this stimulus really been just offsetting deflationary forces? What is clear is that this has been a full contact sport between two large and opposing forces. If that balance changes only modestly the results could be dramatic.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    TGOHF said:

    Plato said:

    Big Tory jump

    Populus @PopulusPolls
    New Populus VI figures: Lab 38 (↓2); Cons 33 (↑4); LD 12 (↑1); UKIP 9 (↓3); Oth 8 (↑1)

    Bigger coalition jump ;)



    Looks very likely that Friday's poll was indeed an outlier.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,443
    @BenM

    Is probably looking after the new baby. And quite right too.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Big Tory jump

    Populus @PopulusPolls
    New Populus VI figures: Lab 38 (↓2); Cons 33 (↑4); LD 12 (↑1); UKIP 9 (↓3); Oth 8 (↑1)

    Not too different from the one before last: 39/34/11/8/8

    So last one with an 11% Lab lead was an outlier?
  • Options
    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Meanwhile....in France:
    Open Europe ‏@OpenEurope 3m
    French Services PMI (Jul F) M/M 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3) (@RANsquawk)

    I can't wait for Ed to introduce Hollande type policies so we can have powerful figures like that....

    Ouch. From TopGear last night - apparently the Nissan plant in Washington makes more cars than all of Italy...
    Didn't know you are a petrolhead!

    I'd still prefer a Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati or even an Alfa to a Nissan.
    Oh, I used to love TG before it got a bit silly - I used to be a classic car nerd and do the shows/Goodwood Festivals etc. I had a concours Triumph Spitfire and a GT6 all restored by me and hubby.
    Did you ever go to the Goodwood Ball at Festival of Speed?

    Agree TG has got a bit silly, prefer May and Clarkson on their own.
    Never did but I had a friend who resembled May and penned Kofi's Tokyo speech as a host once - we were legless and like space hoppers after a day of Cliquot and lobster.

    I have no idea how we got home.
    Teleported?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Looks like it.
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Big Tory jump

    Populus @PopulusPolls
    New Populus VI figures: Lab 38 (↓2); Cons 33 (↑4); LD 12 (↑1); UKIP 9 (↓3); Oth 8 (↑1)

    Not too different from the one before last: 39/34/11/8/8

    So last one with an 11% Lab lead was an outlier?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Plato said:

    Big Tory jump

    Populus @PopulusPolls
    New Populus VI figures: Lab 38 (↓2); Cons 33 (↑4); LD 12 (↑1); UKIP 9 (↓3); Oth 8 (↑1)

    As tim told us, the more tories talk about immigration the more they leak to UKIP

    As normal, he looks a bit foolish now sprouting that drivel last week.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I see CCHQ are having great fun with that Owen Jones article

    CCHQ Press Office @RicHolden
    Labour favourite, Owen Jones, on the Labour front bench: "The Shadow Cabinet appears to have made a vow of collective silence."
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Interesting news from labour's policy lab rats in Wales....

    They may go it alone on plain ciggy packaging and minimum alcohol pricing.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,064
    Just catching up with some polls re. Lib Dem activists last week. Most of them think the coalition is doing a good job, but if the Lib Dems fail to win a majority next time(!) only about 13% would want another coalition with the Tories, about 3x as many prefer a deal with Labour.

    Work that one out.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread on Populus back to normal
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,160
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Meanwhile....in France:
    Open Europe ‏@OpenEurope 3m
    French Services PMI (Jul F) M/M 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3) (@RANsquawk)

    I can't wait for Ed to introduce Hollande type policies so we can have powerful figures like that....

    Ouch. From TopGear last night - apparently the Nissan plant in Washington makes more cars than all of Italy...
    Didn't know you are a petrolhead!

    I'd still prefer a Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati or even an Alfa to a Nissan.
    Oh, I used to love TG before it got a bit silly - I used to be a classic car nerd and do the shows/Goodwood Festivals etc. I had a concours Triumph Spitfire and a GT6 all restored by me and hubby.
    Did you ever go to the Goodwood Ball at Festival of Speed?

    Agree TG has got a bit silly, prefer May and Clarkson on their own.
    Mrs J and I got gifted some free tickets to the Festival of Speed three years ago, including some pass-only events. I was a bit reluctant to take her with me because she is about as far from a petrolhead as it is possible to get, but she loved it.

    Indeed, she says she wants to go again. But only if we get some more free tickets. ;-)

    As for TG: it isn't about cars any more. It's entertainment using cars as a theme. And it is mostly very good entertainment if you are willing to put your brain into neutral.

    It's also good to see people unashamedly boasting about our engineering prowess as a country. Too few people do.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The Tories are swamped with internal division.Recent immigrant van shows Tories are "racist" by a top black Tort.Has this dog-whistle misfired?

    http://www.voice-online.co.uk/article/ex-thatcher-aide-immigration-‘tories-are-racist’
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,018
    Sites gone haywire
This discussion has been closed.