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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real cost of Corbyn’s reshuffle — Labour is talking about itself not what voters care about.
I woke up this morning to hear a devastating critique of the Chancellor George Osborne’s record on the Today programme. Under him “we haven’t rebalanced the economy towards manufacturing, exports and the regions .. fixing the roof when the sun shines never happened.”
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I dislike, disapprove of, and would generally like the end of, the left in politics, but they have the right end of the stick sufficiently frequently that they're clearly a necessary evil.
Bevan - Tory.
Was reading Cowley & Kavanagh's book which noted that when push came to shove, enough Labour voters looked at Ed Miliband, and thought I don't want him to be PM, and 80% of these waivers turned out and ended up voting Conservative. The party's then perceived economic incompetence seems mild compared to the current leadership's failings. Miliband's leadership is characterised as indecisive, uncertain and prone to leave themes underdeveloped. If Corbyn is perceived to share these faults, how on earth will Labour voters turn out to back their party.
Two other areas of weakness Labour v UKIP in The North, and Labour v SNP in Scotland, not really understood by a London centric leadership. Given Corbyn's reliance on London Labour is that weakness amplified? Khan may want a fare freeze on London commuter routes, but how will that be sold to Labour supporters outside London?
Immigration was also highlighted as a problem area for Labour, but have perceptions worsened in the last 8 months since the election?
Given Miliband's weaknesses on economic competence and leadership are magnified by Corbyn & McDonnell, Labour are in dire straits. They must be hoping that Cameron's EU vote is so damaging to the Tories that a spilt happens.
Wow. I thought they were meant to be tougher than that?
@northsoundnews: Flights are being diverted away from Aberdeen Airport due to the hole in the runway. Engineers working to repair it.
To win new voters, the Labour party will need to speak to the concerns of potential voters, not to each other.
Wow. I thought they were meant to be tougher than that?
@northsoundnews: Flights are being diverted away from Aberdeen Airport due to the hole in the runway. Engineers working to repair it.
It's unusual for someone making a silly claim on PB to be pwned by mother nature herself so quickly.
He really did make himself a hostage to fortune with that one.
It's OK, Ken will be due back on tomorrow and can change it again...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8jLyfVX__w
Some of the parts might be original, but that is open to interpretation.
Did she star in a cookery programme with another lady of similar stature and a motorcycle/sidecar?
And in Switzerland, six women reported identical crimes in Zurich on New Year's Eve, while Finnish police intercepted information suggesting similar attacks were planned.
Wow. I thought they were meant to be tougher than that?
@northsoundnews: Flights are being diverted away from Aberdeen Airport due to the hole in the runway. Engineers working to repair it.
What is interesting is that, in the past, water management in the UK in general was distributed but quite thorough - farmers maintaining their runoff, towns the rivers etc.
The problem has come with the modern Rousseauian idea that there is some abstract natural state BeforeManTouchedTheLand that can be returned to.
I was talking to an environmentalist just yesterday - a highly intelligent person - who was telling me the party line on how dredging rivers kills everything. He was utterly flumoxed when I pointed out that dredging rivers had been done for centuries. It is done in sections. So, presumably the wildlife would recolonise the dredged bit after a certain amount of time. Further (I asked) would it not be the case that the wildlife would adapt to this process and might even come to depend on it? Bit like forest fires.... So by ending the dredging, you've probably massively disrupted as eco-system... Just silence at that point.
@MouldS: Still a few tickets left for our Evening Of Unnecessary Detail show. Spoken Nerds +guests doing exiting new stuff https://t.co/epxPwrc6KJ
Telegraph finally reporting on the German crisis with a decent opinion piece. No sign of any stage 3 "don't cause a backlash" rubbish.
I am sure the MP and MSP for the North East will be all over it...
What, he's in London? For a radio show?
Oh
The problem has come with the modern Rousseauian idea that there is some abstract natural state BeforeManTouchedTheLand that can be returned to.
I was talking to an environmentalist just yesterday - a highly intelligent person - who was telling me the party line on how dredging rivers kills everything. He was utterly flumoxed when I pointed out that dredging rivers had been done for centuries. It is done in sections. So, presumably the wildlife would recolonise the dredged bit after a certain amount of time. Further (I asked) would it not be the case that the wildlife would adapt to this process and might even come to depend on it? Bit like forest fires.... So by ending the dredging, you've probably massively disrupted as eco-system... Just silence at that point.
AIUI (and IANAE) there are many problems with dredging as it is done nowadays. Modern long-reach machines can be much more destructive (apparently, although I cannot see how an old-style dragline would have been much better), and there are regulations stating (I think) that dredged silt can only be deposited within a few metres of the bank, rather than being spread over the fields as used to happen.
Were there enough I-don't-know-what-I'm-talking-about clauses in that?
https://t.co/ji5qZzuzzf
And the purists can go hang: locomotives always evolved and changed through their lives. That's why I like a crimson 8F.
Still, it's good to see when he's against 'unqualified' teachers in the classroom he knows what he's talking about from personal experience.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Jeremy-Corbyn-interview-Transport-upgrades-key/story-28481836-detail/story.html
Possible signal the moderates aren't moving.
The problem has come with the modern Rousseauian idea that there is some abstract natural state BeforeManTouchedTheLand that can be returned to.
I was talking to an environmentalist just yesterday - a highly intelligent person - who was telling me the party line on how dredging rivers kills everything. He was utterly flumoxed when I pointed out that dredging rivers had been done for centuries. It is done in sections. So, presumably the wildlife would recolonise the dredged bit after a certain amount of time. Further (I asked) would it not be the case that the wildlife would adapt to this process and might even come to depend on it? Bit like forest fires.... So by ending the dredging, you've probably massively disrupted as eco-system... Just silence at that point.
There is no doubt that Scotland bottled most of it's water and sent it to England, so if the Scots are thirsty they have only themselves to blame.
I thought is was stolen by the English after they massacred the heroic Scots, led by a blue painted Australian?
I heard that the Scots are so hard they have D2O rather than H20 ...
Plato_Says said:
Glen OHara
'BTW, #Labour has *never* in the modern age risen from its poll rating at this stage in a Parl to record a better score at the GE. Never.'
I think he needs to look at the same stages of the 1959 and 1987 Parliaments . Labour did better in 1964 than polls were suggesting in Mid 1960. Likewise Labour did better in 1992 than the polling figures in Jan 1988 implied.
@bbclaurak: 'The weak fighting the weak?' https://t.co/X0tjoyQQ0S
SouthamObserver said:
'I don't think members chose Corbyn because he is on the far left. They chose him because they felt - a la Nick Palmer - that he was polite, consensual, anti-spin, to the left of the other three candidates and prepared to build a big tent. That none of that is really true (though he may be polite to your face) is besides the point. They projected. And like Nick, they chose to ignore or disregard his 30 years of cosying up to apologists for and advocates of terrorism, the subjugation of women and the killing of homosexuals. They voted in reaction to defeat and in disgust at triangulation. They wanted a Labour party that stands for something; one that made them feel good about themselves. At some stage, for many of them that will no longer be enough. They will want to win again. The far left's challenge is to seize as much control as possible before that moment comes.
Want to know why Trident is such a big issue even though it is going to be introduced and there is nothing that labour can do to stop it? Once party policy is officially to oppose Trident it makes it nigh on impossible for someone who is pro-Trident to stand for the leadership. That rules out the likes of Dan Jarvis, Chukka etc.'
I think you have overlooked the contribution of Harriet Harman to Corbyn's election. Had it not been for her dim-witted response to Osborne's July Budget , Corbyn would not have gained anything like the momentum that he did. The other three contenders as members of the Shadow Cabinet were forced to go along with the official line and abstained on the key vote relating to Osborne's proposals - leaving Corbyn to bask in the glory of opposing austerity. With hindsight, Cooper and Burnham should have resigned from the Shadow Cabinet and so freed themselves up to take on Corbyn. Had it not been for Harman's cock up Corbyn would have done no better than come in a respectable third place. She - rather than those who agreed to nominate him - should carry the can for his election
Were there enough I-don't-know-what-I'm-talking-about clauses in that?
Grin.
When you point out that the mud from rivers is now cleaner than any time since 17th Cent (industrial discharge non-existent, domestic rubbish gone, drains connected to toilets etc) you are regarded as a savage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_of_Leith
I used to collect sticklebacks there in my youth
@kevverage: Fascinating insight into misinformed (not uninformed) Trump supporters.
Ring any bells?
https://t.co/c1pjOBVh7j https://t.co/Bu1ImtyYmz
Now that this has happened, operation; get even has begun and all the Blairities (even the minor ones no-one has heard of) are being turfed out of office a few months after being put into office and told that the Eagles and Diane "blinky" Abbott, John McDoneell et al are better material for power.
Imagine being sat there and watching those useless intellectually incestuous extremists running your party, it would depress the hell out of me.
I am no massive fan of Cameron or his cabinet, but at least they are the dull middle management types rather than sneering Ricks from The Young One's unable to connect with anyone but each other.
The problem has come with the modern Rousseauian idea that there is some abstract natural state BeforeManTouchedTheLand that can be returned to.
I was talking to an environmentalist just yesterday - a highly intelligent person - who was telling me the party line on how dredging rivers kills everything. He was utterly flumoxed when I pointed out that dredging rivers had been done for centuries. It is done in sections. So, presumably the wildlife would recolonise the dredged bit after a certain amount of time. Further (I asked) would it not be the case that the wildlife would adapt to this process and might even come to depend on it? Bit like forest fires.... So by ending the dredging, you've probably massively disrupted as eco-system... Just silence at that point.
That is the kind of environmentalist who would do away with the hedgerows in Devon as they are 'manmade'
Arent Australians often descended from English criminals?
1) The media operation could only have been bungled more impressively if Corbyn had been photographed wearing nothing but a strategically placed banana. If this is how badly Milne performs in a low stress period like this, what disasters will he propagate in May?
2) Corbyn is as weak as Brown was that time he couldn't sack Darling. But in the absence of an ejection system, like Brown he will cling on to the bitter end. The damage to the Labour party is already great. By 2020 it may well be irreversible.
3) Cameron's government is in a mess, and even Andrew Burnham would have landed some heavy blows this week. In the absence of a good opposition, we are suffering complacent government, and it's not as though it even has a large mandate.
Do any other commentators feel like Cassandra for predicting all this if Corbyn won, and the Labour Party going ahead and committing hara-kiri anyway?
That is a problem for Labour. It's also a problem for the Tories as it encourages complacency - at some point the opposition will get its act together, whether it be this parliament or next, and when it does the Conservatives will be well behind the game going by current actions. However, not yet.
McFatwa. Genius.
When it comes to Labour , most are looking for the next major gaffe.. I mean Diane Abbott on Newsnight.. Deary me.. voters are now waiting foe Emily to pontificate about something on which her knowledge is very limited.. Prepare for the next car crash..think Trump thinking Paris was in Germany.
Look what you find there now... all the way up to a humpback whale
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/10-things-you-wouldnt-expect-9464690
The animals looked from pig to man and man to pig, but could no longer see any difference.
The general point is probably right though, as long as Corbyn stays in post. The public has already largely made up their mind about him and were push to come to shove at an election, he'd be roundly rejected. I wouldn't be quite so confident about the series holding if both Labour and the Tories change leader before 2020.
1) It must be demonstrated at the ballot box that Corbyn is a big liability - so that means he's safe for atleast this May's set of elections, quite possibly the 2017 ones too. Even I think he should get atleast one go at it just to be sure (even though I'm 95% sure he'll flop).
2) It must be demonstrated that the PLP have "learnt their lesson" from last summer's fiasco after the election where they were all falling over themselves to say how much they agreed with the Tories on absolutely everything (not least the Welfare Bill)
3) It must be shown that hope is not completely lost for Labour permanently and that, if they get their act together, a win in 2020 is a possibility (some more polls showing how toxically unpopular Osborne is, and how beatable he'd be by a decent Labour leader, will help with this) . Perversely enough, one thing that might help Corbyn stay in place is if people start thinking so fatalistically, that Labour are so 100% screwed in 2020 no matter who the leader is that they might as well leave Corbyn in place.
The fundamentals of the US economy are still sound, same with here, especially with weaker Sterling and low oil prices. If manufacturers can't jump start their companies now then they need to rethink their management and business model.
It's not just that Labour is bad at opposing the Government, it's also proving pitifully easy to attack itself. No doubt every Conservative is taught while a suckling babe that one should seek to portray Labour as weak on defence. Often it's hard to do that. But now? When Cameron made his "terrorist sympathisers" remark Labour seemed determined to repeat it, just to make sure it made the news. And now this business with McFadden. They are, quite literally, giving Cameron his ammunition and positioning their own bodies so that the bullets do as much damage as possible.
As punters we are entitled to ask if the fix is in.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary
Laura strikes.
I take your point...