Don't commodities and bank shares behave differently on the market? For instance gold can't go bankrupt, and it is highly unlikely to loose all its value. The same can't be said for Lloyds. Who knows what will come in the next five year? We could spend all that time waiting for it to hit a magic profit figure, and lose it all when the share price collapses overnight. That's basically gambling with taxpayers money on the stock market.
Off topic, but one more thing running in the government's favour is a potential Lloyds share sale, made possible by the bank's strong performance today.
Danny Alexander pooh-pooed the possibility of a quick sale today but it must be tempting for Osborne to do it pre-election.
Its worth 20bn - and that's a lot of cash.
taffys
I didn't hear or read Danny Alexander but I would be surprised if he wasn't responding to speculation that the Treasury are planning a £5 bn quick sale of shares before the markets 'shut down' for the holidays.
Such a sale may be feasible and the argument for it is that it would be a signal of Treasury's intent to dispose of their entire holding by 2015 and a means of establishing price confidence prior to a public offering.
However, it would clash with Barclays upcoming rights issue for £5.8 million with a risk that a disappointing Barclays issue could be blamed on the Treasury. Also the Lloyds share price, whilst above the level that GO stated he would be prepared to sell the shares, is still below the level at which the proceeds would reduce book debt in the National Accounts.
My guess is that all Alexander is doing is ruling out a pre-August sale. Unless a late summer crash in markets on the scale predicted by hunchman is on its way, then the Treasury would benefit all round by waiting to sell the first tranche of shares in September.
The counter view to our own hunchman is that of Goldman Sachs, who are predicting the FTSE 100 to be around 7,100 (or 10% up) by year end. If GS are right, then George Osborne can look forward to a very profitable pre-Christmas sales season.
I also see no current reason why the entire government holding in the Lloyds Group can't be sold by 2015.
The story with the Royal Bank of Scotland, who announce interim figures tomorrow, will be very different.
"If Osborne sells off all the government's LLoyds shares at say 73 pence now and in a year's time they are worth £ 1.73 , is he not in the same position as Gordon Brown selling off the country's Gold at a rock bottom price ?"
Probably. But GO would then also be guilty of risking leaving his enemies a 50 billion pound war chest. Not exactly 'there's no money left' eh?
If Osborne used the cash to cut taxes for strivers and pay off debt, the public would forgive him.
Perhaps , but more likely the perverse public would day he should have sold them a year later at £ 1.73 and cut taxes more and paid off even more debt .
ED Miliband should have taken up the cloth. I can imagine him in a sort of Midsomer Murders "role" as the local vicar. I cannot imagine him as PM under any circumstances. The frightening thing is that he just might be, if the electorate are that stupid.
Off topic, but one more thing running in the government's favour is a potential Lloyds share sale, made possible by the bank's strong performance today.
Danny Alexander pooh-pooed the possibility of a quick sale today but it must be tempting for Osborne to do it pre-election.
Its worth 20bn - and that's a lot of cash.
taffys
I didn't hear or read Danny Alexander but I would be surprised if he wasn't responding to speculation that the Treasury are planning a £5 bn quick sale of shares before the markets 'shut down' for the holidays.
Such a sale may be feasible and the argument for it is that it would be a signal of Treasury's intent to dispose of their entire holding by 2015 and a means of establishing price confidence prior to a public offering.
However, it would clash with Barclays upcoming rights issue for £5.8 million with a risk that a disappointing Barclays issue could be blamed on the Treasury. Also the Lloyds share price, whilst above the level that GO stated he would be prepared to sell the shares, is still below the level at which the proceeds would reduce book debt in the National Accounts.
My guess is that all Alexander is doing is ruling out a pre-August sale. Unless a summer crash in markets on the scale predicted by hunchman is on its way, then the Treasury would benefit all round by selling the first tranche of shares in September.
The counter view to our own hunchman is that of Goldman Sachs, who are predicting the FTSE 100 to be around 7,100 (or 10% up) by year end. If GS are right, then George Osborne can look forward to a very profitable pre-Christmas sales season.
I also see no current reason why the entire government holding in the Lloyds Group can't be sold by 2015.
The story with the Royal Bank of Scotland, who announce interim figures tomorrow, will be very different.
Does not someone appear and post on here regularly that the FTSE and other stock markets are going to collapse by the end of August ?
If fracking takes place in Surrey/Sussex then the Tories will be accused of keeping all the jobs down south, but if that is where the stuf is then go and get it..
They won't muck up the south , it will be done up north , they are happy to flatten everything up there.
Perhaps , but more likely the perverse public would day he should have sold them a year later at £ 1.73 and cut taxes more and paid off even more debt .
That's one way to reduce the deficit, gambling on the stock market. Isn't that one of the causes of the banking crisis in the first place?
Off topic, but one more thing running in the government's favour is a potential Lloyds share sale, made possible by the bank's strong performance today.
Danny Alexander pooh-pooed the possibility of a quick sale today but it must be tempting for Osborne to do it pre-election.
Its worth 20bn - and that's a lot of cash.
taffys
I didn't hear or read Danny Alexander but I would be surprised if he wasn't responding to speculation that the Treasury are planning a £5 bn quick sale of shares before the markets 'shut down' for the holidays.
Such a sale may be feasible and the argument for it is that it would be a signal of Treasury's intent to dispose of their entire holding by 2015 and a means of establishing price confidence prior to a public offering.
However, it would clash with Barclays upcoming rights issue for £5.8 million with a risk that a disappointing Barclays issue could be blamed on the Treasury. Also the Lloyds share price, whilst above the level that GO stated he would be prepared to sell the shares, is still below the level at which the proceeds would reduce book debt in the National Accounts.
My guess is that all Alexander is doing is ruling out a pre-August sale. Unless a summer crash in markets on the scale predicted by hunchman is on its way, then the Treasury would benefit all round by selling the first tranche of shares in September.
The counter view to our own hunchman is that of Goldman Sachs, who are predicting the FTSE 100 to be around 7,100 (or 10% up) by year end. If GS are right, then George Osborne can look forward to a very profitable pre-Christmas sales season.
I also see no current reason why the entire government holding in the Lloyds Group can't be sold by 2015.
The story with the Royal Bank of Scotland, who announce interim figures tomorrow, will be very different.
Does not someone appear and post on here regularly that the FTSE and other stock markets are going to collapse by the end of August ?
That is Ave-It's personal financial advisor, Mr. hunchman. His appearances on PB are governed by the phases of the moon.
Old fake news, it was a YES campaign rally and surprise surprise the Labour for independence group and SNP were both in attendance as one would expect. Sour grapes from Labour and their puppets at the Daily Ranger
Discounts on council properties is a different thing altogether, people have had to live in them for x no of years and the sale of council houses did more to improve the quality housing stock than any work done by any council. It was a stroke of genius. As for cost , that's bowlocks too as badly maintained council stock is worth nothing like the privately owned and well maintained sector.
I just about tuned out of that article when it began proposing a scenario where Boris could supposedly walk into a Conservative party Leadership challenge without actually being an MP, or having built any kind of Westminster base within the PCP as a team player in the mean time.
Well, if the rules don't exclude him, then if he can find enough Tory MPs to nominate him, he can stand.
Now Boris may or may not be the man for the job (I suspect he isn't). But I really wonder why being MP for West Fuckwitshire (a legislative role) should make you a candidate for Leader of the Party and Prime Minister (an executive role), and being mayor for 8 years of the largest city government in Europe somehow doesn't.
What interests me about the Lloyds sale isn't so much the sale itself, its whether GO will have any money to 'play with'
Ive posted before that GO will need to show voters a little of the money before 2015 he wants to be believed on tax cuts in the run up to the election.
I'm wondering if Lloyds gives him the opportunity to do just that.
Well, if the rules don't exclude him, then if he can find enough Tory MPs to nominate him, he can stand.
Now Boris may or may not be the man for the job (I suspect he isn't). But I really wonder why being MP for West Fuckwitshire (a legislative role) should make you a candidate for Leader of the Party and Prime Minister (an executive role), and being mayor for 8 years of the largest city government in Europe somehow doesn't.
He can just be ennobled and we can have a PM in the Lords. That'd go down a treat
You don't know that they are below market price, its a pretty good guess that most council owned property is in poor state of repair relative to the private sector owned property so your below market value figure is highly questionable.
Ive posted before that GO will need to show voters a little of the money before 2015 he wants to be believed on tax cuts in the run up to the election.
Austerity has to continue beyond the next GE, difficult to see the scope for tax cuts.
It didn't occur to me at the time , but if the Council wanted to sell these properties, wouldn't every single property have a sitting tenant thus further devaluing the market value.
Discounts on council properties is a different thing altogether, people have had to live in them for x no of years and the sale of council houses did more to improve the quality housing stock than any work done by any council. It was a stroke of genius. As for cost , that's bowlocks too as badly maintained council stock is worth nothing like the privately owned and well maintained sector.
You want to dispose of council flats in London at £100k below market price then you aren't in a position to criticise getting rid of assets on the cheap
tim
A large placement of shares very often requires a discount to be offiered as an incentive.
Take, for example, Barclays rights issue. Barclays are offering their existing shareholders the right to buy additional shares at a 40% discount to the market price fixed the day before the announcement.
Once the announcement was made, trading in Barclays shares took on a new dynamic. The market price fell by 8% on the day of announcement. This reflects the fact that not all Barclays shareholders will be willing or able to subscribe for new shares. If you don't subscribe for the new shares to which you have rights then your holding in the bank falls in percentage terms.
There will also be investors who don't hold Barclays shares, or who may want to increase their holdings, who consider the Barclays deal to be attractive.
Hence the trade in Barclays shares heats up before the issue, as new buyers wanting a bite of the rights issue enter and those who don't exit. The "market price" is not that frozen on the day of announcement nor even that price less Barclays rights issue discount.
Remember that in any open market what a willing buyer is prepared to pay a willing seller is the true market price. So claiming that a council house is sold at "a £100k below market price" begs the questions whether your paper valuation is an incorrect value and the traded price the correct one..
MG.. put your specs on , most everything oop there is flattened and the locals wouldn't mind a bit of high paid employment gong their way..How are you getting on telling thousands of workers in the Helensburgh area that they will soon be fired....Now that will be real devastation.. to peoples lives, not the landscape.
O/T, but how times change. Snowden and Assange are "whistleblowers", but poor old Klaus Fuchs, Philby, Burgess and Maclean were just common or garden spies because they only let the USSR see the secrets.
Seems very unfair ... perhaps the same people supporting these two should be running a campaign to pardon all our ex-spies.
Apart from Peter Wright, of course. I spent good money to buy "Spycatcher" in Ireland and it was the dullest book imaginable.
You don't know that they are below market price, its a pretty good guess that most council owned property is in poor state of repair relative to the private sector owned property so your below market value figure is highly questionable.
This is another example of PB Tory genius
What do you think the discount is? Which figure do you think the discount is taken off if it isn't market value?
In your example, the "market price" will be a surveyor's valuation based on a prescribed methodology and formula. It is likely to be an attempt to quantify "what the property would sell for if it were a private property in the same condition and location on a private estate".
Look at the leasehold valuation tribunal guidelines for the many ways in which property can be legitimately "valued".
In the end an open market always wins. It is "perfect" in its valuation.
Ive posted before that GO will need to show voters a little of the money before 2015 he wants to be believed on tax cuts in the run up to the election.
Austerity has to continue beyond the next GE, difficult to see the scope for tax cuts.
Yes, but ...
Tax cuts can be justified in lieu of above inflation pay increases. If a government can resist income inflation and achieve productivity gains then the best way to reward the public for their restraint and the economic gain would be to increase standards of living and real income through tax cuts.
PoliticsHome @politicshome 3m .@LouiseMensch tells @BBCNews: "We should no more blame Twitter for trolling and threats than we blame Royal Mail for poisoned pen letters."
But again even more amazing is the London skyline around the Shard, Tower Bridge and the City. I don't think there is a more exciting cityscape anywhere in the world right now, which is remarkable, when you consider how humdrum London's skyline was, just 15 years ago.
The view east from the upstream Golden Jubilee Footbridge is pretty good these days (and presumably from bridges further east)
alun, welcome to the forum, but really, don't try to persuade us that a Welsh Assembly AM by-election in which Labour were third last time is crucial to the future of the party. We have lots of trolls but they are subtle, cunning people...
Labour are defo in alun, welcome to the forum, but really, don't try to persuade us that a Welsh Assembly AM by-election in which Labour were third last time is crucial to the future of the party. We have lots of trolls but they are subtle, cunning people... now -
Comments
I didn't hear or read Danny Alexander but I would be surprised if he wasn't responding to speculation that the Treasury are planning a £5 bn quick sale of shares before the markets 'shut down' for the holidays.
Such a sale may be feasible and the argument for it is that it would be a signal of Treasury's intent to dispose of their entire holding by 2015 and a means of establishing price confidence prior to a public offering.
However, it would clash with Barclays upcoming rights issue for £5.8 million with a risk that a disappointing Barclays issue could be blamed on the Treasury. Also the Lloyds share price, whilst above the level that GO stated he would be prepared to sell the shares, is still below the level at which the proceeds would reduce book debt in the National Accounts.
My guess is that all Alexander is doing is ruling out a pre-August sale. Unless a late summer crash in markets on the scale predicted by hunchman is on its way, then the Treasury would benefit all round by waiting to sell the first tranche of shares in September.
The counter view to our own hunchman is that of Goldman Sachs, who are predicting the FTSE 100 to be around 7,100 (or 10% up) by year end. If GS are right, then George Osborne can look forward to a very profitable pre-Christmas sales season.
I also see no current reason why the entire government holding in the Lloyds Group can't be sold by 2015.
The story with the Royal Bank of Scotland, who announce interim figures tomorrow, will be very different.
As for cost , that's bowlocks too as badly maintained council stock is worth nothing like the privately owned and well maintained sector.
Barclays plan a rights issue of £5.8 billion not million.
Now Boris may or may not be the man for the job (I suspect he isn't). But I really wonder why being MP for West Fuckwitshire (a legislative role) should make you a candidate for Leader of the Party and Prime Minister (an executive role), and being mayor for 8 years of the largest city government in Europe somehow doesn't.
Ive posted before that GO will need to show voters a little of the money before 2015 he wants to be believed on tax cuts in the run up to the election.
I'm wondering if Lloyds gives him the opportunity to do just that.
A large placement of shares very often requires a discount to be offiered as an incentive.
Take, for example, Barclays rights issue. Barclays are offering their existing shareholders the right to buy additional shares at a 40% discount to the market price fixed the day before the announcement.
Once the announcement was made, trading in Barclays shares took on a new dynamic. The market price fell by 8% on the day of announcement. This reflects the fact that not all Barclays shareholders will be willing or able to subscribe for new shares. If you don't subscribe for the new shares to which you have rights then your holding in the bank falls in percentage terms.
There will also be investors who don't hold Barclays shares, or who may want to increase their holdings, who consider the Barclays deal to be attractive.
Hence the trade in Barclays shares heats up before the issue, as new buyers wanting a bite of the rights issue enter and those who don't exit. The "market price" is not that frozen on the day of announcement nor even that price less Barclays rights issue discount.
Remember that in any open market what a willing buyer is prepared to pay a willing seller is the true market price. So claiming that a council house is sold at "a £100k below market price" begs the questions whether your paper valuation is an incorrect value and the traded price the correct one..
O/T, but how times change. Snowden and Assange are "whistleblowers", but poor old Klaus Fuchs, Philby, Burgess and Maclean were just common or garden spies because they only let the USSR see the secrets.
Seems very unfair ... perhaps the same people supporting these two should be running a campaign to pardon all our ex-spies.
Apart from Peter Wright, of course. I spent good money to buy "Spycatcher" in Ireland and it was the dullest book imaginable.
Look at the leasehold valuation tribunal guidelines for the many ways in which property can be legitimately "valued".
In the end an open market always wins. It is "perfect" in its valuation.
Tax cuts can be justified in lieu of above inflation pay increases. If a government can resist income inflation and achieve productivity gains then the best way to reward the public for their restraint and the economic gain would be to increase standards of living and real income through tax cuts.
This will be a real issue in 2015.
But what about a tax cut of equivalent value to a income increase with an additional benefit to the employer?
Even Len McCluskey might take tea and cucumber sandwiches with George for that.
Welcome to PB.
Are you a native Welsh speaker?
Fluffy's Welsh cousin!
They have form on this.
Not if constrained by 2010 Lib Dems.
It is the best reason why they must return home to Daddy Clegg and Mummy Cable.
[Is Vanilla on a frolic?]
F1: sounds like Russia may be missing from the 2014 calendar:
http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/motorsport/story/119457.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/secondaryeducation/10216388/Its-no-wonder-none-of-my-friends-are-teenage-Tories.html#disqus_thread
@IanDunt
The desperation of the SNP http://pic.twitter.com/xeshkmGvPL
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/01/israel-palestine-peace-talks-hopeful