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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield previews today’s Ynys Môn Assembly By-Electi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield previews today’s Ynys Môn Assembly By-Election
It’s been quite a while since we have had an Assembly by-election (in fact well over seven years), but Ynys Môn is a by-election without compare. Firstly, the former member is still with us.
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Between the fiscal year end of 2009-10 and that of 2012-13, Osborne has reduced public spending from 47.0% of GDP to 43.1% of GDP, or 3.9% in three full years.
At that rate of reduction, he will more than reduce spending below the end 2007-8 year of 40.5% (range for 2005-2008 = 40.3%-40.6%).
Pray tell me, sir, do you think Osborne is about to embark on a splurge of public spending of Brownian proportions?
You'd have thought that one of his colleagues might have had a word with Pickles and told him to dial it down a notch.
The only way the Tories can show they care about the North is to permit fracking in Sussex
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/8979511/the-only-way-the-tories-can-show-they-care-about-the-north-is-to-permit-fracking-in-sussex/
Lord JohnO of Hersham and Bournemouth is the man for the job.
@johnprescott Thanks :-) I look forward to learning from you, your experience & your knowledge. It will be fascinating to serve with you
Get the sick bag ;-)
All the feedback I am getting is of a comfortable Plaid hold with Labour 2nd . The Conservative vote well down and struggling for 3rd with UKIP . The Lib Dem vote up a bit .
Mirroring the leader - reactive whining , not setting the weather, complaining and moaning but offering nothing.
Perhaps the Northwest should take all the fracking jobs and then declare UDI? We could be self-sufficient is gas.
There's a pub near Waterloo station (Merseyside, not that insignificant place in London) where they have pictures of all the leading UK politicians and below them is a big notice saying "BARRED". The two Eds' pictures are particularly hideous but even Danny Alexander is included.
Margaret Thatchers' has recently had a banner put across it which reads "Nice try, Maggie, but you're still barred."
It must be sad for the Greens no longer to be the party without peer.
The name of the constituency might sound a bit foreign to kippers.
And you havent even seen that peer at work yet!
I was amused by the following sentance though: "[Ynys Mon is] the only constituency in the whole of the United Kingdom to have been represented at Westminster by all four mainstream parties in Wales". I think I know what he means?
On a similar theme, how many other constituencies are there to have elected four parties since WWII? There can't be many.
West Fife - Liberal, Labour, Conservative, Communist
One can only assume that Harry has been in a coma with a broken down TV set during most of the last month.
So perhaps not the best chap to take your lead from in political discussion if he's that unaware of the political debate going on around him in Wales.
"EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson will not be standing in 2015"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/exclusive-boris-will-not-be-standing-in-2015/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEhIamVuN3VKbGwxN1doUGlTdjlVR0E&usp=drive_web#gid=0
The overall percentages were as follows:
Ind 28.10%
PC 25.46%
Lab 17.70%
UKIP 12.55%
Con 7.63%
LD 6.66%
Others 1.90%
The FDP in Germany is now on at least 5% with all the main opinion pollsters:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
"The next Tory leadership battle is Boris Johnson vs Theresa May – and it’s already started."
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8979591/the-next-tory-leadership-battle-is-boris-johnson-vs-theresa-may-and-its-already-started/
Thanks to Mr. Hayfield for an interesting piece. I didn't know the Welsh used circumflexes.
The good news of the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI for July has already been announced to PB.
But the density of favourable indicators needs to be stressed. Not only is the index at a 29 month high, but both output and orders are up with price pressures subdued. The growth is broadly based with finished goods, intermediates and investment products all increasing their rates of growth. The index was driven up by increased demand in the domestic consumer markets but also underpinned by rising export sales both to the new BRICs markets and the Eurozone. And to top it all off, inventories of finished goods stocks fell (creating future replacement demand) and employment in almost all sectors rose at accelerated rates.
Perhaps it is best left to Markit's partner, the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply, to set out the implications for the UK economy. Here is Roger Noble, their CEO:
“The much vaunted march of the makers has finally materialised with the UK manufacturing sector’s output growth hitting a 29-month high in July. Exports have been critical to this success, but it is the broad based nature of the sector’s performance which endorses the view we are on track for solid and accelerated growth in the coming months.
The ability of British manufacturers to market themselves abroad was always seen as crucial to long-term success and so it has proved. New export business has grown at its quickest rate in two years in a sign that macro-economic conditions are improving. Domestic performance has also been strong.
The consumer goods industry has led the recovery, however it is perhaps even more encouraging to see increasing output and orders in both the intermediate and investment goods industries as well. As a result, confidence is high, jobs growth climbed to a two-year peak and the relatively subdued nature of inflationary pressures rounds off a very good month for manufacturers.”
And for those fed up with the words, lets hear the Household Guards at Buck House "Break! Into! Quick! Time!":[at 1;20]:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-s26lBcu_M
For my part, I believe the match is already setting up nicely for one of those periodic England batting shambles with most our batsmen giving their wickets away.
62 suspected #immigrationoffenders arrested across UK - 2 arrested in Brentwood following Home Office operations pic.twitter.com/Fl2dJaCjAz
Those m/f numbers are a real body blow for labour.
Excellent figures from the US too. And even Europe is looking more positive. Given all that, we can realistically hope that our much delayed recovery is now properly underway. The key, though, is for that to translate into an upswing in living standards. That's when the figures will really begin to mean something.
The candidates are:
Labour: Tal Michael, (son of Alun Michael, ex-Oxford and ex-Islington Councillor)
Plaid: Rhun ap Iorwerth, who lives on the island and until resigning to fight this election, a well known Welsh TV presenter.
Conservative: Neil Fairlamb,
Liberal Democrat: Steve Churchman,
Socialist Labour Party: Kathrine Jones
UKIP: Nathan Gill.
Declaration expected early hours of August 2nd.
New conservatories will be rising from the concrete patios of Leamington Spa soon.
At least, for those not holidaying with their families on Lake Michigan.
Has Leamington ever had it so good?
Family up, cricket miserable, time to hit the beach!!
1. Such a scenario is almost certain to mean falling unemployment, probably quite quickly.
2. It would mean a falling deficit, which might not mean much directly to the man in the street but is one of the key political metrics, not least to commentators so will affect reporting.
3. It will reinforce the impression that the government knows what it's doing and that Plan A was right. The questions of whether the plan shifted and whether the recovery would have happened anyway are to some extent beside the point. Conversely, it leaves Labour's arguments short.
4. If other metrics are moving in the right direction, it at least holds out the prospect of rising living standards in the near future.
On the other hand, interest rates may begin to creep up (not necessarily the BoE, but the retail banks' rates) - though even that is a double-edged sword with pensioners and other savers seeing a benefit.
Some call it pollution, I call it corruption!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10216323/Party-leaders-polluting-Parliament-by-giving-peerages-to-biggest-donors.html
Rogers became ever more exasperated by these members standing up or moving, and pulled away during the over that he was dismissed – when Graeme Swann fired in an offbreak which Rogers, trying to hit through square-leg, missed."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/theashes/10216738/Ashes-2013-England-v-Australia-third-Test-day-one-tea-report.html
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2013/07/five-election-pledges-labour-should-make-to-win-in-2015/
It's part of a consultation re higher fines for employers re illegal workers
The Home Office @ukhomeoffice
Employing illegal workers cheats lawful business & exploits the vulnerable – should those who do it get higher fines? bit.ly/14yoBul
The Home Office @ukhomeoffice
Mark Harper talks about Home Office operations today targeting #immigrationoffenders which have led to 94 arrests bit.ly/16mldaV
http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/sitecontent/documents/policyandlaw/consultations/civil-penalties/
" Kenny Sansom, the former Arsenal and England full back, is homeless and receiving hospital treatment for an alcohol addiction, it emerged today.
Sansom, 54, who has struggled for some years with alcoholism and an addiction to gambling, gave a frank interview to today’s Sun in which he described himself as a “pest” to his family. “I’ve been living homeless for ten days,” he said. “That’s because I’ve got no money, I’m a drunk, I’m not feeling very well and I’m a gambler. I’ve been living on the street.”
The retired footballer, who made 86 appearances for England and is the country’s eleventh most capped player, said he was now drinking seven bottles of Mateus rosé wine every day." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/sport/football/article3831205.ece
DOnt underestimate the power of the van!!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23529215
Silly season can be a time of opportunity for dynamic politicians. Where is the opposition's fighting spirit?"
http://www.newstatesman.com/2013/07/labours-summer-lethargy-does-not-inspire-confidence
Good question.....
I just about tuned out of that article when it began proposing a scenario where Boris could supposedly walk into a Conservative party Leadership challenge without actually being an MP, or having built any kind of Westminster base within the PCP as a team player in the mean time. In this day and age, could we really see Boris successfully winning a future by-election specifically and cynically created for him so he could return to Parliament only if he wins a Conservative Leadership contest?
James Forsyth goes onto say that "He also remembers all too well Cameron’s refusal even to put him in the shadow cabinet in opposition. It was this snub that persuaded him that he would have to leave Westminster to make a serious political career for himself."
Just like his predecessor Ken Livingston, Boris Johnson is a political maverick and simple not suited to being the Conservative Leader. Which is why he won't be PM unless our political system dramatically changes and he can then run on an 'independent' ticket as Boris Johnson rather than a Conservative Party Leader.
"Politics abhors a news vacuum. So with the government on holiday, attention shifts to the opposition. This is why oppositions normally have a whole series of summer stories ready to fill this vacuum. But, oddly, we have heard little from the Labour front bench in the last ten days or so. One consequence of this is that criticisms of Ed Miliband’s leadership by the Labour backbencher George Mudie are going to get more play than they normally would in tomorrow’s papers."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/08/the-spotlight-shifts-to-labour/
"The absence of opposition energy is mystefying. Since pretty much anything with a flicker of political content can make headlines, why doesn’t Labour have a campaign lined up to seize the initiative? Where is the shadow cabinet? Where is everybody? The most visible opposition figure in the past week has been Stella Creasy, MP for Walthamstow, who has valiantly and very effectively taken on the issue of violent misogyny online.
But as far as I can tell, since parliament rose for recess, there hasn’t been a big news story generated deliberately by Labour to discomfort the Tories or Lib Dems. Ed Miliband’s MPs may be working hard behind the scenes in their constituencies but as a dynamic force for taking on the coalition they really are on holiday. The Archbishop of Canterbury is currently doing a more agile job of sustained moral activism. I am not alone in thinking the opposition look oddly lethargic. Most Labour people I have spoken to wonder why their party has given up politics for the summer.
It just makes you all the more impressed by tim's courage.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/08/01/the-guardians-staggering-hypocrisy-over-corporate-tax/
"SNP supporters caught posing for pictures as part of LABOUR yes to indepedence campaign group"
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-supporters-caught-posing-pictures-2111409
Just today I've come across several MPs or other tory leading lights objecting to coverage of the spare room subsidy/welfare reform/free schools etc. etc. etc.
Whether you think the BBC coverage is biased or not (and I've read plenty of lefties complaining the beeb is biased against THEM, so go figure), there's no doubt that the volume from the cons is going up.
It seems to be Crosby's strategy to let nothing go uncontested, whether it's biased or not.
Ummmmm..
@GawainTowler
@UKIP candidate in #YnsMon Nathan Gill 'Turnout looking very poor, I urge people to vote, UKIP supporters or not.'
Who could possibly object to this plan to deliver perfect democracy to the people?
Professor McCrone will rue the day....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10217152/Gavin-McCrone-Independent-Scotland-may-find-it-difficult-to-keep-the-pound.html
All sensible stuff; all known and explained by the more informed amongst us. Does not undermine the major reason for Scottish independence though: The dignity of the Scots!
Daily Mail - 'Hesitant and confused with a bunker mentality': Labour MP's damning verdict on Ed Miliband's troubled leadership
Danny Alexander pooh-pooed the possibility of a quick sale today but it must be tempting for Osborne to do it pre-election.
Its worth 20bn - and that's a lot of cash.
Gold could have gone down also but it didn't .
Probably. But GO would then also be guilty of risking leaving his enemies a 50 billion pound war chest. Not exactly 'there's no money left' eh?
If Osborne used the cash to cut taxes for strivers and pay off debt, the public would forgive him.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/08/gove-now-almost-level-with-boris-as-party-members-favourite-for-next-tory-leader.html