politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Zac to win mayoralty, Corbyn to survive, Trump to fail: Ips
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Zac to win mayoralty, Corbyn to survive, Trump to fail: Ipsos MORI poll on what people think will happen in 2016
It’s that time of year when people look to the next year and start making predictions. One new development on this that I don’t recall seeing before is a national phone poll as seen in some of the charts above from Ipsos MORI.
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All the Mayoral elections have been insulated from the national voting picture bar 2008.
London was Labour's only decent performance in May, I expect that to continue next May
Imagine the worst outcome possible and then double it. Drink a cup of really strong tea and then think of something much worse than that.
Then you will be close, but some way off of what will actually happen.
00:59: To the reader who has joined us after Googling "Who won the 1979 general election?", welcome! It's early days yet but it looks likely that the Conservatives will be in, with a big enough majority to withstand any number of by-election shocks.
00:57: But the BBC's election forecasters don't agree. After 22 results they have a new projection: ...
00:51: "I've not sat in this chair before," says new anchor Dimbleby, "But usually we'd have a clear idea of the result by now, wouldn't we?" "Oh, yes," says David Butler, "We'd usually have many more results."
00:48: The North West is not going for Margaret Thatcher at all. Just a two point swing to the Tories there so far. But big swings away from Labour in the South.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2015/12/ns-liveblog-retro-edition-1979
There is very little evidence that the new signups have translated into people who are actually prepared to do something for a campaign.
Plus what's the relationship between Khan and the Corbynistas??? Khan's rhetoric is very pro business, very pro City. Goodness knows what they will make of that in Islington.
Neither is a good look. If I had a vote, I'd have gone for Jowell even as a Tory - I don't like Zac's zeal or very deep pockets. I don't doubt his sincerity, but he's too ideological/loose cannon for me.
Will JBriskin have a bankroll still?
Oh the fun we have
The left (Lab and Lib Dems) are in the weakest position I've seen in my lifetime and prognosis is not good, things are going to get worse before they get better.
In fact for anyone interested in how England became England and why our landscape looks like it does I would strongly recommend Peter Ackroyd's Foundation (available on Kindle at a very reasonable price). In this book Ackroyd goes back to pre-history and traces civilisation in England from then until the end of the Medieval period. It is a grand tour of epic scale but he does some wonderful things like demonstrate how modern boundaries are mostly based on those that existed before the Romans and the continuity of English settlements and peoples over several thousand years.
When it comes to "accessible" history Ackroyd is, for my money, streets ahead of the Starkey's, Schuma's and the like. His Biography of London is a masterpiece.
So whilst the Tories are banging on about the minutiae of the provisions of the Lisbon treaty, Corbyn and Labour focus on the economy, that might see Labour taking power if Owen Paterson becomes Tory leader and there's a recession on
Isn't that when it started ????? God bless the Glorious Revolution and our continuation of it.
South Africa would bite your hand off for a draw from there (And if wickets fall, their run rate will drop to sub 2.5), it's unlikely but not a dead cert it isn't a draw.
Personally, I suspect that 2015 will be seen as peak immigration with a still strong but less rapidly growing employment market sucking fewer in.
I think it is unlikely that there will be any increase in mortgage rates this year although fixed deals for multiple years will probably edge up as the year goes on.
I would expect inflation to continue to skirt with zero unless there is a very big fall in sterling which I think is unlikely.
I think unemployment will continue to edge down, if not at this year's rate.
I expect the £ to continue to do well against the Euro which is very likely to have a further debt related crisis at some point this year, possibly in Italy.
The current real wage growth and trends indicate that people are being far, far too pessimistic about their expectations in standard of living which will rise relatively strongly, certainly compared with the years since 2008.
I think we will see growth of around 2.5% in the year ahead and that Osborne will just fall short of his deficit reduction targets as some of the "found" £27bn proves to be ephemeral. Overall, a reasonably good year although I fear that the balance of payments will continue to disappoint as consumption rises more rapidly here than in Europe.
Anywhoo-
https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/681829514876448769
Nice keks; now't in'em.
Briskin likes to keep PBers up to date with the latest info!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
It looks like it's getting rather dark, floodlights on and big black clouds in the sky. A rain or light delay could favour the draw.
They face a massive defeat in Scotland, losing perhaps half their MSPs.
They face a significant defeat in Wales, losing control and possibly being unable to reach a coalition to remain in charge.
The London Mayoralty and retaining control of the London Assembly are his only hopes for anything positive.
I don't know what the current projections are for the Assembly but if he loses the Mayoralty then surely he might also lose the Assembly as well?
A four-fold catastrophe may be hard for even the great Jezziah to survive.
Joining SDP mark 2 maybees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But what are Labour discussing this week? Sacking the shadow cabinet members who Jez doesn't like for not voting the same way as him on a free vote.
As was suggested here this morning, 50 by-elections would focus Corbyn's mind somewhat, as would a similar number of defections under an SDP2 type banner. Two or three "traitors" will make no difference though, and might even strengthen Corbyn's position - it has to be several dozen MPs or not at all.
What's gonna go wrong for him ?
I will remain top of the pb fantasy football, until two weeks before the end, a la Arsenal.
Nobody predicted the Peasants' Revolt apparently. Watt Tyler was dismissed as a nobody.
It is not trolling when it is factually correct. England did not exist between 1707 and 1999 other than the all too common mistake of using "England" to refer to any of The UK, Great Britain or, perhaps most importantly, "England and Wales".
Since 1999 it was recreated as a term for groups of local agencies, such as NHS England as the group of NHS boards within England. But that's the extent of it's relevance.
Wales could actually end up ungovernable after 2016. If UKIP get three or four list seats and the Liberals vanish. Plaid won't do any deal involving UKIP (and probably vice versa) which could leave only a Grand Coalition as a viable option, which itself could be too much of a poison pill.
Still, Benn must have known of the likely reaction. The only wonder is why he bothered accepting a role in Corbyn's shadow team in the first place.
Cricket bet!-
Does England exist as a country?
i.e Will England win the cricket.
No badgers available for various reasons apparently
But I like what you did there.
You are not an English citizen, you are not governed by an English Parliament and you are not accountable to English Law. None of these things exist, in 1985 or today.
Much entertainment can be had by arguing the reverse, of course - there is no such place as Scotland, just a set of regions.
Corbyn's subsequent interpretation of it meaning free to agree with him or be fired is more usually associated with a three-line whip than a free vote, especially with reference to Mr Corbyn's attitude towards the whips over the last 30 years.
I'm sure Benn didn't expect to be looking at the sack for a very eloquent and well delivered speech.