politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Sadiq wins the London Mayoralty then Ken could return to
Comments
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It does not matter what I think. What matters is what voters think.DavidL said:
Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.Dair said:
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
In the last 12 months of the campaign, support for Independence went from 30% to 45%.
Over the course of the campaign and it's subsequent fallout, the historic, generally appetite for Independence shifted from 25% to 49%.
That's the new baseline. People were persuaded and they were persuaded by the Yes argument and absolutely nothing that Loyalists have said has changed their minds.0 -
I don't think any of the Scottish pro-Independence posters on PB are members of the SNP. I'm certainly not and probably won't be voting for the SNP on the Glasgow List in May.Speedy said:
Rail against:Theuniondivvie said:
You typed something completely indecipherable, indicating you can't write - 'Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers'.Speedy said:
Well I'll make a transcript for you in case you can't read:Theuniondivvie said:
Again in English please.Speedy said:Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:
What does 'rail' mean, and who are your 'fellow SNP'ers'?
http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/rail against
(do I really need to post a link to a dictionary to him?)
And you are a fellow PB'er, who is also an SNP'er I guess.
Since you have read it twice, I guess you have no objections to the content of that response.0 -
Very dodgy statistics there.Alistair said:
The SNP got 29 percent at the euros, TNS BRMB polled independence support at... 30 percent.Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
In an election votes go to one of the options but in the polls Don't Know was a major factor that's not one in an election.
Of those expressing an opinion it wasn't 30% for Yes but in reality 42% (30/72 excluding the 28% who said Don't Know). There is a reason Opinion Polls normally exclude or reallocate those who say Don't Know.0 -
That's the whole point, you can replace Trump with Salmond and you are still talking about the same guy, with the same personality.viewcode said:
Yes. Me. Vehemently. For Trump to accuse somebody else of pandering to an overinflated ego is to require a new definition of chutzpah. I disagree with the SNP generally and Scottish Independence specifically, but that doesn't mean their battle was not sincerely meant nor that they intended anything other than the betterment of Scots. Trump's endgame is everybody kneeling to him in concentric circles. To heck with him.Speedy said:
Well I'll make a transcript for you in case you can't read:Theuniondivvie said:
Again in English please.Speedy said:Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:
Media Statement
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
In response to Alex Salmond
A spokesperson for the Trump Organization said:
Does anyone care what this man thinks? He's a has-been and totally irrelevant. The fact that he doesn't even know what's going on in his own constituency says it all. We have a permanent clubhouse and the business is flourishing.
He should go back to doing what he does best-unveiling pompous portraits of himself that pander to his already overinflated ego.
The Trump Organization...
[redacted]
Does anyone disagree with the contents of this response?
It's just amusing that two so similar people clash in public.0 -
Ken Livingstone.
A man whose time has come, gone, and is best forgotten.
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No it didn't. Not once you exclude Don't Knows. Otherwise it's equally valid to say that No surged from 42% to 55%Dair said:
It does not matter what I think. What matters is what voters think.DavidL said:
Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.Dair said:
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
In the last 12 months of the campaign, support for Independence went from 30% to 45%.
Over the course of the campaign and it's subsequent fallout, the historic, generally appetite for Independence shifted from 25% to 49%.
That's the new baseline. People were persuaded and they were persuaded by the Yes argument and absolutely nothing that Loyalists have said has changed their minds.0 -
Fortunately they weren't the first to reach that stage.Dair said:
I think we've reached the stage where the Loylists are simply too indoctrinated to actually think rationally about the debate.Alistair said:
The trouble with this arguemnt is that you are arguing the majority of Scots started the indy campaign in favour of independence and currency and oil pushhed them towards No. The polling tells the exact opposite story.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
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I can see why you take James Kelly seriously.Speedy said:
Rail against:Theuniondivvie said:
You typed something completely indecipherable, indicating you can't write - 'Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers'.Speedy said:
Well I'll make a transcript for you in case you can't read:Theuniondivvie said:
Again in English please.Speedy said:Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:
What does 'rail' mean, and who are your 'fellow SNP'ers'?
http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/rail against
(do I really need to post a link to a dictionary to him?)
And you are a fellow PB'er, who is also an SNP'er I guess.
Since you have read it twice, I guess you have no objections to the content of that response.0 -
I don't usually find Moodie very funny (or funny at all really) but this one has some excellent moments. The "Last Christmas" bit is excellent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQw__kfAkYk&feature=youtu.be0 -
My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-351168750 -
Indeed.Dair said:
It does not matter what I think. What matters is what voters think.DavidL said:
Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.Dair said:
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
They voted No.
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Your pathetic use of "facts" to prove your point demonstrates you are nothing more than a unionist shill.Philip_Thompson said:
No it didn't. Not once you exclude Don't Knows. Otherwise it's equally valid to say that No surged from 42% to 55%Dair said:
It does not matter what I think. What matters is what voters think.DavidL said:
Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.Dair said:
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
In the last 12 months of the campaign, support for Independence went from 30% to 45%.
Over the course of the campaign and it's subsequent fallout, the historic, generally appetite for Independence shifted from 25% to 49%.
That's the new baseline. People were persuaded and they were persuaded by the Yes argument and absolutely nothing that Loyalists have said has changed their minds.
Be gone from this site.0 -
Do you have to pay a lump sum or can you pay by weekly instalments?Danny565 said:Off-topic, the "NHS Choir" now look set to be the Xmas #1.
How many PBTories will be buying it...0 -
The judgements in that case bear reading because to my mind even those which are in favour of the Government, such as the lead Judgement by Lord Reed, are a mass of considerations which should have nothing to do with the law at all. It is frankly horrifying how far the ECHR and the mindset it apparently creates in the Judiciary entitles them to pass judgement on public policy, the determination of Parliament and our democratic process.MikeL said:Here we go:
Labour is going to try to get the welfare savings from the move to Universal Credit ruled illegal.
Every chance of succeeding I'm afraid - worth remembering (and very little publicity was given to this) that the £26,000 welfare cap was only ruled legal by 3-2 in the Supreme Court earlier this year.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/dec/16/benefit-cuts-universal-credit-illegal-labour
The judgement of Baroness Hale in particular seems to start from the premise that because the government has put the detailed regulations in secondary legislation (as authorised by the Act) that gives the Courts free rein to determine whether that secondary legislation is "legitimate", whether it has been approved by Parliament or not.
This sort of idiocy (and I say this as a lawyer) is why we have not been able to build a runway in southern England for over 30 years, have a major problem with decrepit and unreplaced power stations and frankly cannot get anything done. To call it self indulgent would be masterful understatement.
They are very long but worth a read: https://www.supremecourt.uk/decided-cases/docs/UKSC_2014_0079_Judgment.pdf
So much of what is wrong with this country summed up in 100 pages of gibberish and judicial intervention in the democratic process.0 -
Probably not as many as Putin receives.kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
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The NHS Choir
"Feed the NHS, don't they know it's Christmas Time..."0 -
The problem is, dair, the voters don't think what you think they think.Dair said:
It does not matter what I think. What matters is what voters think.DavidL said:
Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.Dair said:
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
In the last 12 months of the campaign, support for Independence went from 30% to 45%.
Over the course of the campaign and it's subsequent fallout, the historic, generally appetite for Independence shifted from 25% to 49%.
That's the new baseline. People were persuaded and they were persuaded by the Yes argument and absolutely nothing that Loyalists have said has changed their minds.
cf;
"I think we've reached the stage where the Loylists are simply too indoctrinated to actually think rationally about the debate"
That's the kind of conclusion you come to when you've lost the argument.0 -
I think Ken would say he's never been away but the fairies tell it differentlyRodCrosby said:
Minor point. "Re-tread" is commonly applied to the defeated. Clark retired voluntarily, then sought a comeback.HHemmelig said:RodCrosby
Nick Palmer wouldn't have been "the oldest retread since the war"
Alan Clark was 69 when elected in 1997
But that would apply to Ken too, I suppose, although he would be older than Clark if the came back in mid-2016. And older than Arthur Salter in 1951.
Anyhow, 71 is bloody old to be making a comeback, however you slice it...0 -
LOLReggieCide said:
I think Ken would say he's never been away but the fairies tell it differentlyRodCrosby said:
Minor point. "Re-tread" is commonly applied to the defeated. Clark retired voluntarily, then sought a comeback.HHemmelig said:RodCrosby
Nick Palmer wouldn't have been "the oldest retread since the war"
Alan Clark was 69 when elected in 1997
But that would apply to Ken too, I suppose, although he would be older than Clark if the came back in mid-2016. And older than Arthur Salter in 1951.
Anyhow, 71 is bloody old to be making a comeback, however you slice it...0 -
Sarcasm in that post?kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
I really don't understand what the issue is here. They will both be future monarchs. I think it is something to celebrate!
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No, you misunderstand, it only matters what voters think when they get it right.ThreeQuidder said:
Indeed.Dair said:
It does not matter what I think. What matters is what voters think.DavidL said:
Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.Dair said:
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
They voted No.
Ugh, I feel like crap. Probably overdosed on the Star Wars advertising saturating every form of media, now that I'm actually about to see it in 12 hous. I hear amazonian tribes are really looking forward to it, though.
A pleasant night to all - I welcome Ken back, I used to like him and now I find him very bitter, so maybe being an MP would bring the old Ken back.0 -
Too subtle? I should have used more exclamation marks, the sure sign of the mad or sarcastically outraged/enthused.Mortimer said:
Sarcasm in that post?kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
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"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.0 -
Don't Know means No.Philip_Thompson said:
Very dodgy statistics there.Alistair said:
The SNP got 29 percent at the euros, TNS BRMB polled independence support at... 30 percent.Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
In an election votes go to one of the options but in the polls Don't Know was a major factor that's not one in an election.
Of those expressing an opinion it wasn't 30% for Yes but in reality 42% (30/72 excluding the 28% who said Don't Know). There is a reason Opinion Polls normally exclude or reallocate those who say Don't Know.
The IPSOS Mori even of referendum poll was
45% Yes, 50% No 5% DK.
YouGov's eve of referendum poll was
45% Yes, 49% No 6% DK
Panelbase's eve of referendum poll was
45% Yes, 50% No 5% DK.
Actual result? Same as adding the DK to the No figure in each case.0 -
Can anyone explain how it is possible to accidently penetrate someone by falling on them? This excuse ranks up there with the dog ate my homework.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3361640/Saudi-millionaire-cleared-raping-teenager-telling-court-accidentally-penetrated-18-year-old-tripped-fell-her.html0 -
@BrianSpanner1: I wonder if the useful idiots of the SNP cult are starting to twig that they were just useful idiots?0
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Jonathan Haynes @JonathanHaynes 2h2 hours ago
At the European premiere of #StarWars, Cameron got muted applause, Osborne some boos! Tough crowd.
Stephen Bush @stephenkb 2h2 hours ago
Stephen Bush Retweeted Jonathan Haynes
The quiet unpopularity of George Osborne, Exhibit 7000.0 -
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Shocking to think we have sunk to the level of applauding our elected representatives.Danny565 said:Jonathan Haynes @JonathanHaynes 2h2 hours ago
At the European premiere of #StarWars, Cameron got muted applause, Osborne some boos! Tough crowd.
Stephen Bush @stephenkb 2h2 hours ago
Stephen Bush Retweeted Jonathan Haynes
The quiet unpopularity of George Osborne, Exhibit 7000.
I mean seriously, who the heck applauds a Prime Minister on the way to a film?0 -
Two of the Indy polls 12 months before 14/09/14 had No on 59% even with DKs. It's difficult to see what interpretation would allow one to say that No subsequently surged to 55% 12 months later.Philip_Thompson said:
No it didn't. Not once you exclude Don't Knows. Otherwise it's equally valid to say that No surged from 42% to 55%
The average No vote of the five September 2013 polls was 53.2%. I suppose if one didn't mind looking ridiculous, one could say No surged by an almighty 1.8% in 12 months.0 -
@BBCJLandale: Exc: Strathclyde review recommends replacing Lords' veto over SIs with power to reject once, changes Parliament Act-able if Lords oppose0
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I expect this was discussed earlier, but if Ken returns to the Commons then would Ken not be the favourite for next Labour leader? As to Ken as next Prime Minister ...0
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Smoothed out polling from 2014 for the Indyref, Red No, Blue Yes, unattractive greeney-yellow for alleged Don't Knows.Philip_Thompson said:
No it didn't. Not once you exclude Don't Knows. Otherwise it's equally valid to say that No surged from 42% to 55%
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That graph should terrify Cameron and his FO friends0
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I wonder if we will see the Parliament Act used to amend itself, as in 1949. I believe that manoeuvre was finally ruled valid a few years ago?Scott_P said:@BBCJLandale: Exc: Strathclyde review recommends replacing Lords' veto over SIs with power to reject once, changes Parliament Act-able if Lords oppose
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@youngwd1: Scottish budget follows George Osborne’s example. SNP not called Tartan Tories for nothing.
https://t.co/qvVFPZUiVF0 -
@WillardFoxton: Really looking forward to the new instalment:) https://t.co/08vIoPS6CV0
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Surely the question is what does Prince William actually do with all this information?
Does he read it all and memorise it? Or just file it in his office?
What is he actually going to do as a result of knowing it?
If the answer is nothing then why bother spending time on it?
If it's "preparation for being Monarch" how is he going to remember any of it by then? I doubt his memory lasts 30 or 40 years. If he's worried he may need the info when he becomes Monarch then presumably he could just ask for old minutes at that time?
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I doubt it is for him to memorise every detail of every report, but rather as training for what is to come.MikeL said:Surely the question is what does Prince William actually do with all this information?
Does he read it all and memorise it? Or just file it in his office?
What is he actually going to do as a result of knowing it?
If the answer is nothing then why bother spending time on it?
If it's "preparation for being Monarch" how is he going to remember any of it by then? I doubt his memory lasts 30 or 40 years. If he's worried he may need the info when he becomes Monarch then presumably he could just ask for old minutes at that time?0 -
Why - There will be no referendum in this Parliament and David Cameron is standing down before the next electionrunnymede said:That graph should terrify Cameron and his FO friends
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Not to remember the specifics, but so he is used to considering such issues, no different to any other form of training by experience.it really is a fantastically dull scandal that has emerged.MikeL said:Surely the question is what does Prince William actually do with all this information?
Does he read it all and memorise it? Or just file it in his office?
What is he actually going to do as a result of knowing it?
If the answer is nothing then why bother spending time on it?
If it's "preparation for being Monarch" how is he going to remember any of it by then? I doubt his memory lasts 30 or 40 years. If he's worried he may need the info when he becomes Monarch then presumably he could just ask for old minutes at that time?0 -
I don't see why he'd need an eidetic memory. Having an understanding of what has come before helps with going forwards.MikeL said:Surely the question is what does Prince William actually do with all this information?
Does he read it all and memorise it? Or just file it in his office?
What is he actually going to do as a result of knowing it?
If the answer is nothing then why bother spending time on it?
If it's "preparation for being Monarch" how is he going to remember any of it by then? I doubt his memory lasts 30 or 40 years. If he's worried he may need the info when he becomes Monarch then presumably he could just ask for old minutes at that time?0 -
I never knew Hilary Clinton was a top cattle futures trader. She managed to turn an initial $1,000 investment into $100,000.
Economists from Auburn University and University of North Florida concluded that there was only a 1 in 250 million chance that Clinton could have made the profits legitimately. Guess she is just really lucky...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/a-clinton-scandal-primer_b_87792.html0 -
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.0 -
@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL0 -
TBH that list is pretty thin gruel - the author lists eight 'scandals', but rates all but one of them either 1 or 2 out of 10 for seriousness of the original alleged scandal. The exception he rates at 5 out of 10, but admits Hillary had very little to do with it. In any case most of this stuff is very well known, and in the price.MP_SE said:I never knew Hilary Clinton was a top cattle futures trader. She managed to turn an initial $1,000 investment into $100,000.
Economists from Auburn University and University of North Florida concluded that there was only a 1 in 250 million chance that Clinton could have made the profits legitimately. Guess she is just really lucky...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/a-clinton-scandal-primer_b_87792.html
I was expecting more beef.0 -
Wow. I am actually really excited for the referendum.Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL0 -
Agreed completely. I'm a republican but unless or until the constitution changes it should be followed. William is two heartbeats from being King.flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.
I'd even accept Harry having been briefed too at least until William became a father.0 -
Get in!Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL
Come on England, don't let me down.0 -
I think if anything the conclusion should be that, contrary to reports, Charles knows how to keep his gob shut. Sure, he's intervenes too much on a few things - but think of all the things he hasn't...Philip_Thompson said:
Agreed completely. I'm a republican but unless or until the constitution changes it should be followed. William is two heartbeats from being King.flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.
I'd even accept Harry having been briefed too at least until William became a father.0 -
Broken sleazy REMAIN on the slide?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL0 -
0
-
21 point remain lead...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Broken sleazy REMAIN on the slide?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL
or
9 point leave lead...
Who knows?
I shall keep selling the favourite and earning a few pennies :-)0 -
You going to vote leave to help Scotland gain independence?Dair said:
Get in!Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL
Come on England, don't let me down.0 -
Can I suggest you read Ambrose Evans Pritchard's The Secret Life of Bill Clinton.MP_SE said:I never knew Hilary Clinton was a top cattle futures trader. She managed to turn an initial $1,000 investment into $100,000.
Economists from Auburn University and University of North Florida concluded that there was only a 1 in 250 million chance that Clinton could have made the profits legitimately. Guess she is just really lucky...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/a-clinton-scandal-primer_b_87792.html
It has all those allegations (and more).
Plus it will make you seriously doubt the sanity of AEP.0 -
Lol.Richard_Nabavi said:
TBH that list is pretty thin gruel - the author lists eight 'scandals', but rates all but one of them either 1 or 2 out of 10 for seriousness of the original alleged scandal. The exception he rates at 5 out of 10, but admits Hillary had very little to do with it. In any case most of this stuff is very well known, and in the price.MP_SE said:I never knew Hilary Clinton was a top cattle futures trader. She managed to turn an initial $1,000 investment into $100,000.
Economists from Auburn University and University of North Florida concluded that there was only a 1 in 250 million chance that Clinton could have made the profits legitimately. Guess she is just really lucky...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/a-clinton-scandal-primer_b_87792.html
I was expecting more beef.0 -
Thanks I will have a look at it. How much of it is BS though?rcs1000 said:
Can I suggest you read Ambrose Evans Pritchard's The Secret Life of Bill Clinton.MP_SE said:I never knew Hilary Clinton was a top cattle futures trader. She managed to turn an initial $1,000 investment into $100,000.
Economists from Auburn University and University of North Florida concluded that there was only a 1 in 250 million chance that Clinton could have made the profits legitimately. Guess she is just really lucky...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/a-clinton-scandal-primer_b_87792.html
It has all those allegations (and more).
Plus it will make you seriously doubt the sanity of AEP.
I was thinking about buying The Clintons' War on Women but after researching one of the women who had made various allegations was left unconvinced.0 -
Truth is you have a measure of sanity and people who are addicted to this bollox do not have two brain cells to rub together.Richard_Nabavi said:
TBH that list is pretty thin gruel - the author lists eight 'scandals', but rates all but one of them either 1 or 2 out of 10 for seriousness of the original alleged scandal. The exception he rates at 5 out of 10, but admits Hillary had very little to do with it. In any case most of this stuff is very well known, and in the price.MP_SE said:I never knew Hilary Clinton was a top cattle futures trader. She managed to turn an initial $1,000 investment into $100,000.
Economists from Auburn University and University of North Florida concluded that there was only a 1 in 250 million chance that Clinton could have made the profits legitimately. Guess she is just really lucky...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/a-clinton-scandal-primer_b_87792.html
I was expecting more beef.0 -
Given his lordship's record at the general election and 2 new polls with Remain ahead would not get too excitedDair said:
Get in!Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL
Come on England, don't let me down.
O/T Had quite an interesting evening at the parliamentary carols as a guest of James Davies MP, a friend of a friend, readings by John Bercow, Chris Bryant and Michael Fallon and Diane Abbott nearby then a drink on the Commons Terrace and a meal with Bill Cash walking by. Then saw Mark Gambill (Luke Skywalker) and Peter Mayhew (Chewbacca) coming out of the Star Wars Premiere, Gambill winding down his window and being chased by fans down Charing Cross Road. Simon Pegg, Benedict Cumberbatch, Stephen Fry, Brooklyn and Romeo Beckham and Brian May also coming out of the film0 -
I'm sorry, but that "1 in 250 million chance" statement is bullshit (scuse my French, but "nonsense" is insufficiently harsh). The "1 in 250 million" statement is true if each purchasing decision was taken at random *and* independent of each other (e.g. by a balanced roulette wheel, identical balls with random entry points and speed, and no escaping). But they weren't. Such fuckwitted abuse of statistics is what got Sally Clark killed, and I'll thank you not to repeat it. Economists never get fired for being wrong so they are free to spout such stupidities, but i hope we at PB have a more critical eye.MP_SE said:I never knew Hilary Clinton was a top cattle futures trader. She managed to turn an initial $1,000 investment into $100,000.
Economists from Auburn University and University of North Florida concluded that there was only a 1 in 250 million chance that Clinton could have made the profits legitimately. Guess she is just really lucky...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/a-clinton-scandal-primer_b_87792.html0 -
Any evidence that polls with 10,000 do better than those with 1,000?0
-
They give the wrong answer with greater precision?RobD said:Any evidence that polls with 10,000 do better than those with 1,000?
0 -
Thanks for the resounding vote of confidence!flightpath01 said:...Truth is you have a measure of sanity....
0 -
A bit late to point that out. You rail 'against' or 'at' something. So why not say so or point to a typo.Speedy said:
Rail against:Theuniondivvie said:
You typed something completely indecipherable, indicating you can't write - 'Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers'.Speedy said:
Well I'll make a transcript for you in case you can't read:Theuniondivvie said:
Again in English please.Speedy said:Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:
What does 'rail' mean, and who are your 'fellow SNP'ers'?
http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/rail against
(do I really need to post a link to a dictionary to him?)
And you are a fellow PB'er, who is also an SNP'er I guess.
Since you have read it twice, I guess you have no objections to the content of that response.0 -
Mark HAMILLHYUFD said:
Given his lordship's record at the general election and 2 new polls with Remain ahead would not get too excitedDair said:
Get in!Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL
Come on England, don't let me down.
O/T Had quite an interesting evening at the parliamentary carols as a guest of James Davies MP, a friend of a friend, readings by John Bercow, Chris Bryant and Michael Fallon and Diane Abbott nearby then a drink on the Commons Terrace and a meal with Bill Cash walking by. Then saw Mark Gambill (Luke Skywalker) and Peter Mayhew (Chewbacca) coming out of the Star Wars Premiere, Gambill winding down his window and being chased by fans down Charing Cross Road. Simon Pegg, Benedict Cumberbatch, Stephen Fry, Brooklyn and Romeo Beckham and Brian May also coming out of the film
0 -
Dair is doing his best to make this site unreadable.Philip_Thompson said:
No it didn't. Not once you exclude Don't Knows. Otherwise it's equally valid to say that No surged from 42% to 55%Dair said:
It does not matter what I think. What matters is what voters think.DavidL said:
Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.Dair said:
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
In the last 12 months of the campaign, support for Independence went from 30% to 45%.
Over the course of the campaign and it's subsequent fallout, the historic, generally appetite for Independence shifted from 25% to 49%.
That's the new baseline. People were persuaded and they were persuaded by the Yes argument and absolutely nothing that Loyalists have said has changed their minds.0 -
Yes. But the improvement is *tiny* (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error ). The Ashcroft poll is not compatible with the phone polls showing a significant Remain lead, nor with the ICM poll showing neck-and-neck. Choose whichever poll you feel suits your worldview, but somebody here is fucking up bigstyle (I haven't got a clue which!). The sole advantage of this clusterfuck is that at least the pollsters aren't herding this time...:-)RobD said:Any evidence that polls with 10,000 do better than those with 1,000?
0 -
When were they ever 'useful'?Scott_P said:@BrianSpanner1: I wonder if the useful idiots of the SNP cult are starting to twig that they were just useful idiots?
0 -
Not from my ELBOWRobD said:Any evidence that polls with 10,000 do better than those with 1,000?
0 -
So SINDYREF 2 'nailed on' for the SNP Holyrood 2016 manifesto then?Dair said:
the Second Referendum and preventing Scotland from expressing herself democratically.Alistair said:
The trouble with this arguemnt is that you are arguing the majority of Scots started the indy campaign in favour of independence and currency and oil pushhed them towards No. The polling tells the exact opposite story.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
But that won't work.
Tick tock.
tick tock.....0 -
-
Dair said:
Get in!Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL
Come on England, don't let me down.
At least it'll answer your currency question - 'it's the Euro'!
But that will be your choice, if you vote to leave the UK and join the EU......0 -
Them being willing partners of the Tories and fronting the campaign for them, unbelievably stupid.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...0 -
I believe that the head of the group "Republic" is an Aussie. Can we dream up some reason to deport him?flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.
0 -
No. We should give him a rousing rendition of "Get your shit stars off our flag"perdix said:
I believe that the head of the group "Republic" is an Aussie. Can we dream up some reason to deport him?flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.0 -
Lizzie is also Queen of Oz...perdix said:
I believe that the head of the group "Republic" is an Aussie. Can we dream up some reason to deport him?flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.0 -
Funny stuff this weather. But it happens. The fact that it was warmer in 1948 shows... that it was warmer in 1948. Amazing how the winds blow sometimes.Anorak said:
Interesting. Breaking a monthly average by a full degree must be a very, very rare event though. (not motivated enough to check that assertion, however!)Richard_Tyndall said:
That's what you get when you get winds off the Sahara. There is a warning out because of Saharan dust affecting eastern England and causing breathing problems over the next few days. The two previous highs of 1934 and 1974 also had the same problem.murali_s said:O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).
Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html0 -
Two spanners in one post a recordScott_P said:@BrianSpanner1: I wonder if the useful idiots of the SNP cult are starting to twig that they were just useful idiots?
0 -
2001 A Space Odyssey on BBC 4...
With Rigsby !!0 -
Village idiot chips inflightpath01 said:
Dair is doing his best to make this site unreadable.Philip_Thompson said:
No it didn't. Not once you exclude Don't Knows. Otherwise it's equally valid to say that No surged from 42% to 55%Dair said:
It does not matter what I think. What matters is what voters think.DavidL said:
Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.Dair said:
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
In the last 12 months of the campaign, support for Independence went from 30% to 45%.
Over the course of the campaign and it's subsequent fallout, the historic, generally appetite for Independence shifted from 25% to 49%.
That's the new baseline. People were persuaded and they were persuaded by the Yes argument and absolutely nothing that Loyalists have said has changed their minds.0 -
obviously got too much money after selling his cameron pig-f_ing book, so decided to waste someTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Oh for chrissake, did Ashcroft *really* do it like that? Does he take his socks off by keeping his shoes on and patiently unthreading his socks, then rethreading them once retrieved?. It's a simple question: REMAIN or LEAVE? What is it with this "mark out of a 100" bobbins?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So you have. What have you got to say then?malcolmg said:
Village idiot chips inflightpath01 said:
Dair is doing his best to make this site unreadable.Philip_Thompson said:
No it didn't. Not once you exclude Don't Knows. Otherwise it's equally valid to say that No surged from 42% to 55%Dair said:
It does not matter what I think. What matters is what voters think.DavidL said:
Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.CarlottaVance said:
Inside your head.Dair said:
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,Danny565 said:
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.Alistair said:
Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
In the last 12 months of the campaign, support for Independence went from 30% to 45%.
Over the course of the campaign and it's subsequent fallout, the historic, generally appetite for Independence shifted from 25% to 49%.
That's the new baseline. People were persuaded and they were persuaded by the Yes argument and absolutely nothing that Loyalists have said has changed their minds.0 -
2001 - historical costume drama?MattW said:2001 A Space Odyssey on BBC 4...
0 -
But you've just had a 'Tory Budget' from Swinneymalcolmg said:
Them being willing partners of the Tories.Mortimer said:
A question for our Scottish friends.Tom said:Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.
Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?
I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...
-Tory income tax levels
-Tory ringfencing....
Tartan Tories!0 -
Yes just looked him up and was waiting for the inevitable correctionSunil_Prasannan said:
Mark HAMILLHYUFD said:
Given his lordship's record at the general election and 2 new polls with Remain ahead would not get too excitedDair said:
Get in!Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Ashcroft (#EURef):
REMAIN 38
LEAVE 47
N~20,000 (meaning that this was almost certainly done online)
#EUReferendum https://t.co/FhxvQ0KJLL
Come on England, don't let me down.
O/T Had quite an interesting evening at the parliamentary carols as a guest of James Davies MP, a friend of a friend, readings by John Bercow, Chris Bryant and Michael Fallon and Diane Abbott nearby then a drink on the Commons Terrace and a meal with Bill Cash walking by. Then saw Mark Gambill (Luke Skywalker) and Peter Mayhew (Chewbacca) coming out of the Star Wars Premiere, Gambill winding down his window and being chased by fans down Charing Cross Road. Simon Pegg, Benedict Cumberbatch, Stephen Fry, Brooklyn and Romeo Beckham and Brian May also coming out of the film0 -
Great movie. In terms of a 'film' story, one of the best.MattW said:2001 A Space Odyssey on BBC 4...
With Rigsby !!0 -
On this Ashcroft poll - would be better to exclude the 40 to 60 band as DK and just report the rest.
Still a funny approach though.0 -
I think he's trying to prove his constituency wasn't the most bobbins bit of polling he's produced this year.viewcode said:
Oh for chrissake, did Ashcroft *really* do it like that? Does he take his socks off by keeping his shoes on and patiently unthreading his socks, then rethreading them once retrieved?. It's a simple question: REMAIN or LEAVE? What is it with this "mark out of a 100" bobbins?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Sunil_Prasannan said:
Lizzie is also Queen of Oz...perdix said:
I believe that the head of the group "Republic" is an Aussie. Can we dream up some reason to deport him?flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Lizzie is also Queen of Oz...perdix said:
I believe that the head of the group "Republic" is an Aussie. Can we dream up some reason to deport him?flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.
Tony Abbott headed the Australian monarchist campaign in 1999 and was born in LondonSunil_Prasannan said:
Lizzie is also Queen of Oz...perdix said:
I believe that the head of the group "Republic" is an Aussie. Can we dream up some reason to deport him?flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.0 -
The great Salmondo v Trumpy
What a pity Salmond wasn't born in America. He could join the race for the Republican nomination and finish off Trumpy in the first 5 minutes of debate. The only reason these charactors can't lay a glove on Trump is that a) they are all useless and b) they are frighted of Trump. Salmond is neither.
On their current exchange I suspect Salmond knows his constituency rather well. The petition to ban Trunp is running at 1169 in Gordon, the Not to ban petition at 76 in the constituency ie 15 to one to ban the Trump!
0 -
Whither Tony Abbott?HYUFD said:Sunil_Prasannan said:
Lizzie is also Queen of Oz...perdix said:
I believe that the head of the group "Republic" is an Aussie. Can we dream up some reason to deport him?flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Lizzie is also Queen of Oz...perdix said:
I believe that the head of the group "Republic" is an Aussie. Can we dream up some reason to deport him?flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.
Tony Abbott headed the Australian monarchist campaign in 1999 and was born in LondonSunil_Prasannan said:
Lizzie is also Queen of Oz...perdix said:
I believe that the head of the group "Republic" is an Aussie. Can we dream up some reason to deport him?flightpath01 said:
Slow news day.RobD said:
"Campaign group Republic said there was "no good reason" why Prince William receives the information."kle4 said:My gods, will the madness never cease! Will is at it too.
The Duke of Cambridge occasionally receives copies of confidential cabinet documents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35116875
Other than him being a future head of state. I understand they don't like the hereditary system, but it's what we have, and so rules/procedures are designed around that fact.
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That's very thorough. Did you find any polyps up there?scotslass said:The great Salmondo v Trumpy
What a pity Salmond wasn't born in America. He could join the race for the Republican nomination and finish off Trumpy in the first 5 minutes of debate. The only reason these charactors can't lay a glove on Trump is that a) they are all useless and b) they are frighted of Trump. Salmond is neither.
On their current exchange I suspect Salmond knows his constituency rather well. The petition to ban Trunp is running at 1169 in Gordon, the Not to ban petition at 76 in the constituency ie 15 to one to ban the Trump!0 -
Days of future past, modernist design, corporate men in mad men drag and elliptical sentences flattened by the chaos of events, one of the best designed films, still in the Sight&Sound top ten films evah...SandyRentool said:
2001 - historical costume drama?MattW said:2001 A Space Odyssey on BBC 4...
...and all the special effects are British. God when we're good, we're good...0
