politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Sadiq wins the London Mayoralty then Ken could return to

System · December 2015

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Sadiq wins the London Mayoralty then Ken could return to the Commons as MP for Tooting

There’s been a lot of talk in recent days about the former LAB Mayor of London, Ken Livingston, being made a peer and perhaps becoming his party’s leader in the Lords.

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart · December 2015

Belgium 'bungled Abdeslam's arrest' two days after Paris attacks due to law banning overnight raids

Police failed to arrest Salah Abdeslam, Europe's most wanted man, after locating him in Molenbeek two days after the Paris attacks due to a legal loophole over searching premises between 11pm and 5am

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12053791/Belgium-bungled-Abdeslams-arrest-two-days-after-Paris-attacks-due-to-law-banning-overnight-raids.html

God Belgium is a joke isn't it. Surprised they don't have to send them a nice leaflet to inform them that next Friday they will be conducting a raid to capture you.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2015

Terrorist who attended human rights conferences with Jeremy Corbyn faces jail

Court hears Abdul Raoof Al Shayeb claimed he was a leading human rights activist but was found with guides of how to be a terrorist.

He met with the Labour leader "many times" to discuss the human rights situation in Bahrain and attended the home of Lord Eric Avebury, Vice Chair of the Parliamentary Human Rights Group.

But when police raided his Maida Vale home they discovered a 16GB SD card loaded with military files on "bombs", "missiles" and "destruction" alongside Jihadi exam papers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/12054443/Terrorist-who-attended-human-rights-conferences-with-Jeremy-Corbyn-faces-jail.html

Lovely picture there...Will Jahadi Jez be writing another letter of support? Cameron is right on Jez, he really is a danger to national security.

Tissue_Price · December 2015

This would be a big risk for Corbyn - Ken could easily lose. Though of course this suggestion would be in a future where Sadiq had won.

Tooting is gentrifying: Khan got no swing at all in May, compared to the pro-Labour swing across London as a whole.

Speedy · December 2015

Curse of new thread, from the last one:

Tissue_Price said:

Pong said:

Tissue_Price said:

Speedy said:
So in conclusion, for now their chances are:
Trump 50
Cruz 33
Carson 11
Paul 5
Rest 1
I'll take as much 100/1 Rubio as you're offering.
You're no fun.
Speedy's analysis, whilst right to note the similarities between Trump & Corbyn, neglects the fact that the electorate is vastly wider (not just bigger) in American primaries than in Labour's system.

Primaries are simple beasts, if you know the character and the make up of the party base.
You say there is no parallel, but every election has the same rules basic rule: policies that people like and campaigning skills.

In the Labour leadership race Corbyn was the closest to the average Labour voter in terms of policy and the most competent campaigner by far of his rivals, so he won in a landslide, and Liz Kendall was the most far away from the average Labour voter and the most incompetent campaigner, so she came dead last.

In the GOP race who is the closest to the average republican voter in terms of policy?:
Trump and Cruz equally.
Who is the best campaigner so far?: Trump first, then Cruz

Who is the farthest away from the average republican voter?:
Kasich, Christie ,Bush, Rubio, Fiorina, in that order (though they are all close on that one)

Who is the worst campaigner so far? :
Fiorina, Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich in that order

So from 9 candidates Trump along with Cruz scores closest to the average voter with policy, while Rubio is 4th farthest, when campaigning Trump is the best while Rubio is 3rd worst.
Logic dictates that since Rubio's policies are not well liked by the average republican and he is a bad campaigner, his chances should be small.

JackW · December 2015

Corbyn might consider "The Great Newt" as more useful in the Commons however it would be the Conservatives he'd be more useful to.

Jezza really is the gift that keeps on giving, which of course is jolly decent of him as the festive season approaches.

Tissue_Price · December 2015

JackW said:
Corbyn might consider "The Great Newt" as more useful in the Commons however it would be the Conservatives he'd be more useful to.

Jezza really is the gift that keeps on giving, which of course is jolly decent of him as the festive season approaches.

Ho Ho Hoxha!

Speedy · December 2015

Tissue_Price said:
This would be a big risk for Corbyn - Ken could easily lose. Though of course this suggestion would be in a future where Sadiq had won.

Tooting is gentrifying: Khan got no swing at all in May, compared to the pro-Labour swing across London as a whole.

True there would be a risk.
Ken would have to rely on the memories when he was mayor.

Danny565 · December 2015

Despite some of the PBTories' wild fantasises, there are only two scenarios where the Tories would make a by-election gain from Labour in this Parliament.

One scenario is a byelection in Barrow & Furness (the Trident factor), and the other scenario is a byelection with Livingstone as candidate.

Tissue_Price · December 2015

Danny565 said:
Despite some of the PBTories' wild fantasises, there are only two scenarios where the Tories would make a by-election gain from Labour in this Parliament.

One scenario is a byelection in Barrow & Furness (the Trident factor), and the other scenario is a byelection with Livingstone as candidate.

Two other scenarios: an expenses scandal-hit MP in a marginal; three-way contests after an SDP-style split (like Mitcham 1982). But yes, Governments don't usually gain at by-elections.

Tissue_Price · December 2015

Speedy said:
[snip]

So from 9 candidates Trump along with Cruz scores closest to the average voter with policy, while Rubio is 4th farthest, when campaigning Trump is the best while Rubio is 3rd worst.
Logic dictates that since Rubio's policies are not well liked by the average republican and he is a bad campaigner, his chances should be small.

Still no price on Rubio, I note.

You'd think you might have learned from the General Election:

Speedy, on April 19 said:
"...the chances of the Tories gaining a Labour seat in the north because of UKIP is zero. "

Tom · December 2015

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:
This would be a big risk for Corbyn - Ken could easily lose. Though of course this suggestion would be in a future where Sadiq had won.

Tooting is gentrifying: Khan got no swing at all in May, compared to the pro-Labour swing across London as a whole.
True there would be a risk.
Ken would have to rely on the memories when he was mayor.

Boris beat Ken on first preferences in the Tooting wards in 2012 (excludes postal votes). Virtual tie on 1st and 2nd prefs. Labour comfortably won the list. Not sure Ken runs ahead of Labour anymore in places like this and Sadiq had a strong personal vote.

If Cons chose a good candidate they could win it although I suspect they will have fallen in the polls by next summer. Ken would definitely be favourite. Virtually no vote to squeeze - 90% Lab/Con so would need direct swing.

Pulpstar · December 2015

Tissue_Price said:

Speedy said:
[snip]

So from 9 candidates Trump along with Cruz scores closest to the average voter with policy, while Rubio is 4th farthest, when campaigning Trump is the best while Rubio is 3rd worst.
Logic dictates that since Rubio's policies are not well liked by the average republican and he is a bad campaigner, his chances should be small.
Still no price on Rubio, I note.

You'd think you might have learned from the General Election:
Speedy, on April 19 said:
"...the chances of the Tories gaining a Labour seat in the north because of UKIP is zero. "

Rubio needs to get his ass into gear wrt New Hampshire, and fast. If he wins NH, he justifies his current odds and probably goes odds on. If he doesn't win it, I reckon he is smoked. I'd say his fair odds are no better than 3-1 at the shortest.

Tissue_Price · December 2015

Tom said:

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:
This would be a big risk for Corbyn - Ken could easily lose. Though of course this suggestion would be in a future where Sadiq had won.

Tooting is gentrifying: Khan got no swing at all in May, compared to the pro-Labour swing across London as a whole.
True there would be a risk.
Ken would have to rely on the memories when he was mayor.
Boris beat Ken on first preferences in the Tooting wards in 2012 (excludes postal votes). Virtual tie on 1st and 2nd prefs. Labour comfortably won the list. Not sure Ken runs ahead of Labour anymore in places like this and Sadiq had a strong personal vote.

If Cons chose a good candidate they could win it although I suspect they will have fallen in the polls by next summer. Ken would definitely be favourite. Virtually no vote to squeeze - 90% Lab/Con so would need direct swing.

I believe the Tories have already re-confirmed their G.E. candidate in anticipation of the possibility. I should stress that this is their 2015 candidate not their 2010 one.

Danny565 · December 2015

One of the downsides about Tory MPs being so much younger these days is there's less opportunities for interesting by-elections.

Mortimer · December 2015

Tissue_Price said:
This would be a big risk for Corbyn - Ken could easily lose. Though of course this suggestion would be in a future where Sadiq had won.

Tooting is gentrifying: Khan got no swing at all in May, compared to the pro-Labour swing across London as a whole.

Quite. Add gentrification to the 'gave their lives' comment and the generally noxious politics of Red Ken, I could quite easily see a Tory gain here.

Especially as TSE and I have offered (accurate, TSE?) to go and canvass Earlsfield.

Mortimer · December 2015

Danny565 said:
One of the downsides about Tory MPs being so much younger these days is there's less opportunities for interesting by-elections.

Fewer.....

TheScreamingEagles · December 2015

I note the Labour MP for Luton South is talking about this thread on Twitter.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-george-hotz-self-driving-car/

What you up to in the garage darling...just building my own self driving car....

Tissue_Price · December 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
I note the Labour MP for Luton South is talking about this thread on Twitter.

The former Labour MP for Rotherham has liked one of his tweets, too.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2015

Mortimer said:

Tissue_Price said:
This would be a big risk for Corbyn - Ken could easily lose. Though of course this suggestion would be in a future where Sadiq had won.

Tooting is gentrifying: Khan got no swing at all in May, compared to the pro-Labour swing across London as a whole.
Quite. Add gentrification to the 'gave their lives' comment and the generally noxious politics of Red Ken, I could quite easily see a Tory gain here.

Especially as TSE and I have offered (accurate, TSE?) to go and canvass Earlsfield.

Yes. I love campaigning.

Tissue_Price · December 2015

Mortimer said:

Danny565 said:
One of the downsides about Tory MPs being so much younger these days is there's less opportunities for interesting by-elections.
Fewer.....

No, younger. There are many more Tory MPs than previously. ;-)

MTimT · December 2015

FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.

ydoethur · December 2015

It is an astonishing mark of how reactionary, hidebound and generally stuck in the past the Corbyn leadership is that we are even discussing this as a serious possibility. Livingstone is a politician whose best decades were behind him by 2000. He won his first term solely on disillusionment with Tony Blair, who foolishly promised the universe and delivered a few rocks from Ceres, coupled with a badly bungled candidate selection by the Labour party. His second term owed everything to his status as Labour's official candidate. The last two elections he has been a visible drag on their ticket - and it is not as though he was up against a particularly formidable politician. Moreover, he is even older than Corbyn and even less popular with those people who know him personally.

Robert Blake once said of the Tariff Reform movement that destroyed the Unionists in the early twentieth century, 'it almost makes one believe that there can be such a thing as a political death wish, improbable though that may seem amidst the normal wholesome pragmatism of British politicians.' But compared to what Labour are doing right now, the proposals of the Chamberlains seem eminently sensible and electorally appealing. Is there absolutely any way back for them?

Sean_F · December 2015

Tooting would be iffy. Wandsworth Conservatives are an extremely formidable outfit. Unlike other parts of the country, they have the backing of all sections of right wing voters, and UKIP have never got a toehold.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2015

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I note the Labour MP for Luton South is talking about this thread on Twitter.
The former Labour MP for Rotherham has liked one of his tweets, too.

Something tells me that some Labour MPs and ex MPs think Mike is on to something.

Corbyn's logic is right. Ken would be better for him in The Commons, not the Lords

Mortimer · December 2015

Tissue_Price said:

Mortimer said:

Danny565 said:
One of the downsides about Tory MPs being so much younger these days is there's less opportunities for interesting by-elections.
Fewer.....

No, younger. There are many more Tory MPs than previously. ;-)

Touché - that'll teach me to correct less/fewer...

Mortimer · December 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Tissue_Price said:
This would be a big risk for Corbyn - Ken could easily lose. Though of course this suggestion would be in a future where Sadiq had won.

Tooting is gentrifying: Khan got no swing at all in May, compared to the pro-Labour swing across London as a whole.
Quite. Add gentrification to the 'gave their lives' comment and the generally noxious politics of Red Ken, I could quite easily see a Tory gain here.

Especially as TSE and I have offered (accurate, TSE?) to go and canvass Earlsfield.

Yes. I love campaigning.

I know some great local hostelries. Always necessary after a long day - E.g. The day before polling day, when I walked 40km up and down long drives in Mid Dorset/North Poole!

ydoethur · December 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I note the Labour MP for Luton South is talking about this thread on Twitter.
The former Labour MP for Rotherham has liked one of his tweets, too.
Something tells me that some Labour MPs and ex MPs think Mike is on to something.

Corbyn's logic is right. Ken would be better for him in The Commons, not the Lords

Except that he should really be thinking about what's the best way of maximising his chances of winning power at the next election. Trying to return the newt-fancying dinosaur to the Commons, rather than asking him nicely to go and join the Greens, is the precise opposite of that.

Tissue_Price · December 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I note the Labour MP for Luton South is talking about this thread on Twitter.
The former Labour MP for Rotherham has liked one of his tweets, too.
Something tells me that some Labour MPs and ex MPs think Mike is on to something.

Corbyn's logic is right. Ken would be better for him in The Commons, not the Lords

They'd have their very own quad. Assuming Diane was allowed into the patriarchy.

Morris_Dancer · December 2015

Good evening, everyone.

What a depressing thought.

kle4 · December 2015

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I note the Labour MP for Luton South is talking about this thread on Twitter.
The former Labour MP for Rotherham has liked one of his tweets, too.
Something tells me that some Labour MPs and ex MPs think Mike is on to something.

Corbyn's logic is right. Ken would be better for him in The Commons, not the Lords
Except that he should really be thinking about what's the best way of maximising his chances of winning power at the next election. Trying to return the newt-fancying dinosaur to the Commons, rather than asking him nicely to go and join the Greens, is the precise opposite of that.

Given that plenty of people think he will struggle to stay in place in order to fight the next election in the first place, and that with him in place nothing he does will help him win even if he does, then shoring up his position so he can at least stick around to make the attempt is the next best thing.

Tom · December 2015

Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.

Richard_Nabavi · December 2015

It would present a tricky conundrum for tactical (or strategic!) voting: an opportunity to express revulsion at Ken and try to hasten Corbyn's demise, or an opportunity to help keep Labour dragged down by Corbyn and his cronies.

Mortimer · December 2015

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I note the Labour MP for Luton South is talking about this thread on Twitter.
The former Labour MP for Rotherham has liked one of his tweets, too.
Something tells me that some Labour MPs and ex MPs think Mike is on to something.

Corbyn's logic is right. Ken would be better for him in The Commons, not the Lords
They'd have their very own quad. Assuming Diane was allowed into the patriarchy.

Four of the most voter-repellant Labourites leading the party. I'm amazed the prospect hasn't provoked a split already.....

JosiasJessop · December 2015

Time for someone to buy a lottery ticket:
http://www.ktvu.com/news/57060876-story

h/t unwanted blog

ydoethur · December 2015

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I note the Labour MP for Luton South is talking about this thread on Twitter.
The former Labour MP for Rotherham has liked one of his tweets, too.
Something tells me that some Labour MPs and ex MPs think Mike is on to something.

Corbyn's logic is right. Ken would be better for him in The Commons, not the Lords
Except that he should really be thinking about what's the best way of maximising his chances of winning power at the next election. Trying to return the newt-fancying dinosaur to the Commons, rather than asking him nicely to go and join the Greens, is the precise opposite of that.
Given that plenty of people think he will struggle to stay in place in order to fight the next election in the first place, and that with him in place nothing he does will help him win even if he does, then shoring up his position so he can at least stick around to make the attempt is the next best thing.

Would the egregious Mr Livingstone do that? Or would he further turn off the already restless parliamentary Labour party? If Corbyn suggests he needs the help of Macdonnell, Abbott and Livingstone to remain leader - three people who would make George Galloway* look well-liked in the PLP - might they not actually be driven to unite and publicly tell him to go forth and multiply?

*I thought of writing 'George Osborne', but I thought that might be a slight exaggeration.

RodCrosby · December 2015

As the oldest re-tread since the War?

Nick Palmer ducked that honour in May... (^_-)

Mortimer · December 2015

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.

A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

rcs1000 · December 2015

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.

There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.

JosiasJessop · December 2015

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.

As is often the case, you've put my position better than I could myself. You b*****.

rcs1000 · December 2015

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.
As is often the case, you've put my position better than I could myself. You b*****.

Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · December 2015

Only 4 more sleeps until the AV thread

JosiasJessop · December 2015

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.
As is often the case, you've put my position better than I could myself. You b*****.
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)

We could, except ... (whispers quietly behind his dirty overalls) I'm more sick and depraved than that. I don't like trains, but the engineering: from bridges to drains.

Although it's true I'm not obsessed by Europe. Could I still be a member of the group?

Alistair · December 2015

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.

BigRich · December 2015

The idea of Ken Livingston standing in Tooting, must be every cartoonist/satirists wet dream. Citizens Livingston and the 'Tooting Popular Front'

I think that in one episode there was a by-election.

foxinsoxuk · December 2015

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Only 4 more sleeps until the AV thread

I tbink that is a bit optomistic. It is always AV yesterday, AV tommorow, but never AV today.

Danny565 · December 2015

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.

What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · December 2015

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I note the Labour MP for Luton South is talking about this thread on Twitter.
The former Labour MP for Rotherham has liked one of his tweets, too.
Something tells me that some Labour MPs and ex MPs think Mike is on to something.

Corbyn's logic is right. Ken would be better for him in The Commons, not the Lords
They'd have their very own quad. Assuming Diane was allowed into the patriarchy.

I'm sure Diane would be able to ingratiate herself inwards.

MikeL · December 2015

Mortimer said:

Tissue_Price said:
This would be a big risk for Corbyn - Ken could easily lose. Though of course this suggestion would be in a future where Sadiq had won.

Tooting is gentrifying: Khan got no swing at all in May, compared to the pro-Labour swing across London as a whole.
Quite. Add gentrification to the 'gave their lives' comment and the generally noxious politics of Red Ken, I could quite easily see a Tory gain here.

Especially as TSE and I have offered (accurate, TSE?) to go and canvass Earlsfield.

Also add in the completion of Individual Voter Registration - ie all names not heard from will have actually been deleted from the register.

SandyRentool · December 2015

BigRich said:
The idea of Ken Livingston standing in Tooting, must be every cartoonist/satirists wet dream. Citizens Livingston and the 'Tooting Popular Front'

I think that in one episode there was a by-election.

From Citizen Khan to Citizen Ken!

(Tory gain)

Danny565 · December 2015

Scotland European Elections 2014
SNP 29.0% -0.1%
Labour 25.9% +5.1%
Conservatives 17.2% +0.4%
UKIP 10.5% +5.2%

How quickly things changed!

BigRich · December 2015

Results of Tooting constituency at 2015 GE

Labour 25,263
Conservative 22,421
LD 2,107
UKIP 1,537
Green 2,201

Dair · December 2015

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).

It's not odd and it's what Alistair said. The Yes vote = the SNP vote.

Scotland had never had a proper debate about Independence before the Referendum. Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign, so they grew and grew and grew.

There is also a substantial "Yes but" vote who will also back the SNP, hence the SNP score 5% to 10% above the Independence support level. It is converting those "Yes but"s into Yes votes that they are now working on.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2015

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.

The Reuters headline is a little bit disingenuous...They used FB to message other people to tell them their support in private.

Syed Rizwan Farook, 28, and Tashfeen Malik, 29, expressed support for "jihad and martyrdom" in private communications but never did so publicly on social media, Comey said at a news conference in New York City.

Malik sent at least two private messages on Facebook to a small group of Pakistani friends in 2012 and 2014, pledging her support for Islamic jihad and saying she hoped to join the fight one day, the Los Angeles Times reported on Monday.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/fbi-san-bernardino-shooters-social-media-jihad-2015-12?r=US&IR=T

There were media reports that the couple had social media accounts under fake names that did openly post about supporting Islamic terrorists. I believe this is what the FBI are referring to. Be interested to know were that came from.

viewcode · December 2015

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.
As is often the case, you've put my position better than I could myself. You b*****.
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)

Centrists, leaning independent, train obsessed, rarely into Strasbourg.

murali_s · December 2015

O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).

Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html

Mortimer · December 2015

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).

Quite. I'm increasingly convinced that it was the failure of the Indy vote that increased SNP Westminster vote.

The 'We trust you to fight for Scotland, but want to be British. And Labour have let us down' party....

Mortimer · December 2015

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.
As is often the case, you've put my position better than I could myself. You b*****.
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)
Centrists, leaning independent, train obsessed, rarely into Strasbourg.

For Christmas kicks, could we maybe do a poll that generates a Venn diagram of:

Interest in trains/engineering
Political leanings
Europhilia

Mortimer · December 2015

murali_s said:
O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).

Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html

I've just checked into a hotel - the room was sweltering because some genius decided to put all the radiators up to full blast. It is basically spring weather outside....

Anorak · December 2015

murali_s said:
O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).

Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html

It's stupidly warm at the moment. Just walked to the offie for some beer. Didn't bother with a coat. Didn't even feel slightly cold. And that's mid-December 3 hours after the sun went down. Just nuts.

viewcode · December 2015

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.
As is often the case, you've put my position better than I could myself. You b*****.
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)
Centrists, leaning independent, train obsessed, rarely into Strasbourg.
For Christmas kicks, could we maybe do a poll that generates a Venn diagram of:

Interest in trains/engineering
Political leanings
Europhilia

For me this is a problem: I am negatively interested in trains. However, I have been known to slip in obscure Red Dwarf references, so perhaps it amounts to the same thing

Speedy · December 2015

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).

It was a combination.

SLAB is unusually right wing for scotland, they used to berate them as those lawyers from Edinburgh, so there was a feeling for many years, at least a decade, that Labour MP's in scotland were out of touch with their constituencies who were mostly left wing.

Then came the referendum campaign and suddenly you saw those right wing scottish Labour MP's in collusion with the Tories, followed by a very intense and feisty campaign with lots of violence and intimidation (mostly by the SNP), so when the referendum ended those left wing Yes voters stayed behind with the SNP.
It didn't help of course confirming that SLAB was even more right wing than the rest of Labour, by making Jim Murphy it's leader after the referendum.

Put those two together and you will see that the disconnect was there for a long time, but the referendum was the last straw.

Mortimer · December 2015

Speedy said:

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
It was a combination.

SLAB is unusually right wing for scotland, they used to berate them as those lawyers from Edinburgh, so there was a feeling for many years, at least a decade, that Labour MP's in scotland were out of touch with their constituencies who were mostly left wing.

Then came the referendum campaign and suddenly you saw those right wing scottish Labour MP's in collusion with the Tories, followed by a very intense and feisty campaign with lots of violence and intimidation (mostly by the SNP), so when the referendum ended those left wing Yes voters stayed behind with the SNP.
It didn't help of course confirming that SLAB was even more right wing than the rest of Labour, by making Jim Murphy it's leader after the referendum.

Put those two together and you will see that the disconnect was there for a long time, but the referendum was the last straw.

Not enough left is your mantra, isn't it speedy.

I can't wait to see Corbo and his band of arch-trots make no difference to the Scottish position for Labour....

Anorak · December 2015

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of the San Bernardino attack, either just before or after they entered the holiday party in camouflage with guns blazing."

The questions here seem to be around whether there was a direct link to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.
As is often the case, you've put my position better than I could myself. You b*****.
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)
Centrists, leaning independent, train obsessed, rarely into Strasbourg.
For Christmas kicks, could we maybe do a poll that generates a Venn diagram of:

Interest in trains/engineering
Political leanings
Europhilia

For me this is a problem: I am negatively interested in trains. However, I have been known to slip in obscure Red Dwarf references, so perhaps it amounts to the same thing

Coalition of Liberals Interested in Trains Or Reinvigorating Integration with Strasbourg. Just one problem with that...

(obscure enough?)

Tom · December 2015

Not complicated is it? 45% of Scots voted for independence. Labour's 2010 vote fell by 42%. Ergo, the referendum convinced/confirmed a substantial proportion of the Lab vote they were nationalists. Which is why the 'move to the left' Corbyn strategy has had no effect. People vote SNP principally because they are nationalists.

Mortimer · December 2015

Anorak said:

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of ..k to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
There are three (possibly four) types of terror attack linked with Islamic extremism:

1. Those actions planned and executed by ISIS/Al Queda using their own operatives. 9/11 is one example.

2. Those actions by local groups who are affiliated with the parent, but not part of any command and control system.

3. Those actions planned and perpetrated by individuals (or couples) who sympathise with the goals of ISIS/Al Quaeda but have never been part of groups. These could almost be called "Inspired By" murders, and they are very hard to stop.

(And sort of 4. Which is a mentally ill person who sees a cause of some kind as a justification for their existing urges to kill people.)

I think San Bernardino comes under the third category.
As is often the case, you've put my position better than I could myself. You b*****.
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)
Centrists, leaning independent, train obsessed, rarely into Strasbourg.
For Christmas kicks, could we maybe do a poll that generates a Venn diagram of:

Interest in trains/engineering
Political leanings
Europhilia

edit: I ARSED THIS UP. Will try again.
For me this is a problem: I am negatively interested in trains. However, I have been known to slip in obscure Red Dwarf references, so perhaps it amounts to the same thing
Coalition of Liberals Interested in Trains Or Strasbourg's Integration Liabilities. Just one problem with that...

(obscure enough?)

Ha!

When people accuse me of being a nasty Tory (somewhere to the right of stills the Hun) is a frequently misused term, I retort that I would be a liberal if the Liberal party still existed and hadn't been ruined by the SDP...

Luckyguy1983 · December 2015

Dair said:

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
It's not odd and it's what Alistair said. The Yes vote = the SNP vote.

Scotland had never had a proper debate about Independence before the Referendum. Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign, so they grew and grew and grew.

There is also a substantial "Yes but" vote who will also back the SNP, hence the SNP score 5% to 10% above the Independence support level. It is converting those "Yes but"s into Yes votes that they are now working on.

They're not Yes buts, they're No buts. They voted No, but gave the SNP a consolation prize, and ensured a pugnacious defence of their interests at Westminster. I think it's slipping away from you and deep down you know it.

Mortimer · December 2015

Luckyguy1983 said:

Dair said:

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
It's not odd and it's what Alistair said. The Yes vote = the SNP vote.

Scotland had never had a proper debate about Independence before the Referendum. Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign, so they grew and grew and grew.

There is also a substantial "Yes but" vote who will also back the SNP, hence the SNP score 5% to 10% above the Independence support level. It is converting those "Yes but"s into Yes votes that they are now working on.
They're not Yes buts, they're No buts. They voted No, but gave the SNP a consolation prize, and ensured a pugnacious defence of their interests at Westminster. I think it's slipping away from you and deep down you know it.

Indeed. SNP as the new BQ?

Richard_Tyndall · December 2015

murali_s said:
O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).

Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html

That's what you get when you get winds off the Sahara. There is a warning out because of Saharan dust affecting eastern England and causing breathing problems over the next few days. The two previous highs of 1934 and 1974 also had the same problem.

Anorak · December 2015

Mortimer said:

Anorak said:

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:
FPT Alistair said:
"I see Reuters are tweeting that the San Bernardino shooters did not post support for jihad on social media.

Just regular run of the mill nutters then."

My understanding is that there is no doubt of a Islamic terrorist motivation. FBI Director Comey reported to the Senate Judiciary Committee that:
"the couple sent a joint digital message pledging their allegiance to Islamic State on the day of ..k to one of the terror organizations, or whether this was freelance in support of the overall objectives of such organizations. Another question is by whom they were introduced to each other, given that they were independently radicalized before meeting.
*snip*
As is often the case, you've put my position better than I could myself. You b*****.
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)
Centrists, leaning independent, train obsessed, rarely into Strasbourg.
For Christmas kicks, could we maybe do a poll that generates a Venn diagram of:

Interest in trains/engineering
Political leanings
Europhilia

edit: I ARSED THIS UP. Will try again.
For me this is a problem: I am negatively interested in trains. However, I have been known to slip in obscure Red Dwarf references, so perhaps it amounts to the same thing
Coalition of Liberals Interested in Trains Or Reinvigorating Integration with Strasbourg. Just one problem with that...

(obscure enough?)
Ha!

When people accuse me of being a nasty Tory (somewhere to the right of stills the Hun) is a frequently misused term, I retort that I would be a liberal if the Liberal party still existed and hadn't been ruined by the SDP...

It was only a capital 'L' to make the acronym more obvious

Anorak · December 2015

Richard_Tyndall said:

murali_s said:
O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).

Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html
That's what you get when you get winds off the Sahara. There is a warning out because of Saharan dust affecting eastern England and causing breathing problems over the next few days. The two previous highs of 1934 and 1974 also had the same problem.

Interesting. Breaking a monthly average by a full degree must be a very, very rare event though. (not motivated enough to check that assertion, however!)

Alistair · December 2015

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).

The SNP got 29 percent at the euros, TNS BRMB polled independence support at... 30 percent.

viewcode · December 2015

Anorak said:

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)
Centrists, leaning independent, train obsessed, rarely into Strasbourg.
For Christmas kicks, could we maybe do a poll that generates a Venn diagram of:

Interest in trains/engineering
Political leanings
Europhilia

For me this is a problem: I am negatively interested in trains. However, I have been known to slip in obscure Red Dwarf references, so perhaps it amounts to the same thing
Coalition of Liberals Interested in Trains Or Reinvigorating Integration with Strasbourg. Just one problem with that...

(obscure enough?)

"...Let's get tough. The time for talking is over. Call it extreme if you like, but I propose we hit it hard and hit it fast with a major -- and I mean major -- leaflet campaign, and while it's reeling from that, we'd follow up with a whist drive, a car boot sale, some street theatre and possibly even some benefit concerts. OK? Now, if that's not enough, I'm sorry, it's time for the T-shirts: "Train-Haters Out" ... "Eurosceptic Life Forms, No Thanks" ... and if that's not enough, well, I don't know what will be..."

murali_s · December 2015

Richard_Tyndall said:

murali_s said:
O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).

Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html
That's what you get when you get winds off the Sahara. There is a warning out because of Saharan dust affecting eastern England and causing breathing problems over the next few days. The two previous highs of 1934 and 1974 also had the same problem.

The winds are NOT coming in from the Sahara - they are of a subtropical nature originating from the Azores.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn121.gif

And where is this warning?

HHemmelig · December 2015

RodCrosby

Nick Palmer wouldn't have been "the oldest retread since the war"

Alan Clark was 69 when elected in 1997

Anorak · December 2015

viewcode said:

Anorak said:

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)
Centrists, leaning independent, train obsessed, rarely into Strasbourg.
For Christmas kicks, could we maybe do a poll that generates a Venn diagram of:

Interest in trains/engineering
Political leanings
Europhilia

For me this is a problem: I am negatively interested in trains. However, I have been known to slip in obscure Red Dwarf references, so perhaps it amounts to the same thing
Coalition of Liberals Interested in Trains Or Reinvigorating Integration with Strasbourg. Just one problem with that...

(obscure enough?)
"...Let's get tough. The time for talking is over. Call it extreme if you like, but I propose we hit it hard and hit it fast with a major -- and I mean major -- leaflet campaign, and while it's reeling from that, we'd follow up with a whist drive, a car boot sale, some street theatre and possibly even some benefit concerts. OK? Now, if that's not enough, I'm sorry, it's time for the T-shirts: "Train-Haters Out" ... "Eurosceptic Life Forms, No Thanks" ... and if that's not enough, well, I don't know what will be..."

Considering I watched most of Red Dwarf whilst utterly caned, it's remarkable how much has stuck in my brain. E.g. Rimmer's sublime abuse to the other Rimmer: "You filthy piece of distended rectum". Poetry.

CarlottaVance · December 2015

Dair said:

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,

Inside your head.

Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP

viewcode · December 2015

Anorak said:

viewcode said:

Anorak said:

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:
Do you think we should form a group:

Sensible, centre-right, train loving PBites
(Who are not obsessed by Europe)
Centrists, leaning independent, train obsessed, rarely into Strasbourg.
For Christmas kicks, could we maybe do a poll that generates a Venn diagram of:

Interest in trains/engineering
Political leanings
Europhilia

For me this is a problem: I am negatively interested in trains. However, I have been known to slip in obscure Red Dwarf references, so perhaps it amounts to the same thing
Coalition of Liberals Interested in Trains Or Reinvigorating Integration with Strasbourg. Just one problem with that...

(obscure enough?)
"...Let's get tough. The time for talking is over. Call it extreme if you like, but I propose we hit it hard and hit it fast with a major -- and I mean major -- leaflet campaign, and while it's reeling from that, we'd follow up with a whist drive, a car boot sale, some street theatre and possibly even some benefit concerts. OK? Now, if that's not enough, I'm sorry, it's time for the T-shirts: "Train-Haters Out" ... "Eurosceptic Life Forms, No Thanks" ... and if that's not enough, well, I don't know what will be..."
Considering I watched most of Red Dwarf whilst utterly caned, it's remarkable how much has stuck in my brain.

I think it was a precondition. My memories alternate between trying to focus on the screen and trying to focus on the ceiling. But it i amazing how many references you can slip in without anybody ever noticing. "Are you sure? It does mean changing the bulb", or "broadcast in all known languages. Including Welsh", or others

Alistair · December 2015

CarlottaVance said:

Dair said:

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,
Inside your head.

Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP

The trouble with this arguemnt is that you are arguing the majority of Scots started the indy campaign in favour of independence and currency and oil pushhed them towards No. The polling tells the exact opposite story.

Richard_Tyndall · December 2015

murali_s said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

murali_s said:
O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).

Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html
That's what you get when you get winds off the Sahara. There is a warning out because of Saharan dust affecting eastern England and causing breathing problems over the next few days. The two previous highs of 1934 and 1974 also had the same problem.
The winds are NOT coming in from the Sahara - they are of a subtropical nature originating from the Azores.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn121.gif

And where is this warning?

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/16/saharan-dust-cloud-bound-uk-health-warning

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/saharan-dust-cloud-to-hit-britain-prompts-warning-as-temperatures-set-to-climb-to-17c-a6775711.html

And basically every other news outlet you bother to look at.

And if you look at the wind charts for the Atlantic you will see the winds are blowing west out of the Sahara and then north across the Bay of Biscay and up to the UK.

http://magicseaweed.com/North-Atlantic-Surf-Chart/2/?chartType=WMAG

DavidL · December 2015

CarlottaVance said:

Dair said:

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,
Inside your head.

Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP

Banks, lenders of last resort, defence, financial services generally, the BBC. Maybe a list of the arguments Dair thinks they did win would be shorter.

Richard_Tyndall · December 2015

Anorak said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

murali_s said:
O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).

Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html
That's what you get when you get winds off the Sahara. There is a warning out because of Saharan dust affecting eastern England and causing breathing problems over the next few days. The two previous highs of 1934 and 1974 also had the same problem.
Interesting. Breaking a monthly average by a full degree must be a very, very rare event though. (not motivated enough to check that assertion, however!)

I agree. I am not sure if it will finish up a full degree above for the whole month but there must be a good chance. We have had a month of southerly and south westerly winds with only the cold snap of northerlies at the start of the month to cool things down.

CarlottaVance · December 2015

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Dair said:

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

Mortimer said:

Tom said:
Interesting the previous Tory candidate has continued campaigning and bills himself as the 'Conservative Parliamentary Spokesperson for Tooting'. Also a good CV. Still think it would be a big ask for the Conservatives - both parties increased their votes in 2015, not sure there is alot left to squeeze.

Still think Ken would have the edge - there's still enough residual Ken the radical anti establishment to carry him over the line. We'll be heading to proper doldrums/mid-term by then as well.
A question for our Scottish friends.

What tipped the scales against Labour so much in 15? I mean I know years of taking for granted the seats, not doing anything for constituents etc. But why 15? Was it the realisation that there was no risk of Indy by voting SNP?

I wonder if avoiding the risk of Corbo as PM would be enough to tip 25-75 of the more precarious Northern seats away from Labour in a similar way...

Yes vote == SNP vote. It was that simple. Support for indy rose so support for the snp rose.
What's odd though is that the SNP rise only happened after the referendum.

In the 2014 European elections, right in the thick of the referendum campaign, Labour came within 4% of the SNP in Scotland (there was actually a small swing TOWARDS Labour compared to 2009).
Every arguement was won by the Yes campaign,
Inside your head.

Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
The trouble with this arguemnt is that you are arguing the majority of Scots started the indy campaign in favour of independence and currency and oil pushhed them towards No. The polling tells the exact opposite story.

No, I am arguing that fatuous arrogance like Dair's is why Yes lost.

MikeL · December 2015

Here we go:

Labour is going to try to get the welfare savings from the move to Universal Credit ruled illegal.

Every chance of succeeding I'm afraid - worth remembering (and very little publicity was given to this) that the £26,000 welfare cap was only ruled legal by 3-2 in the Supreme Court earlier this year.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/dec/16/benefit-cuts-universal-credit-illegal-labour

Speedy · December 2015

Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:

https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/677107214738432000

When Egos collide.
I wander what Trump has in store for Cameron if he becomes president.

Theuniondivvie · December 2015

Speedy said:
Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:

Again in English please.

Richard_Nabavi · December 2015

MikeL said:
Here we go:

Labour is going to try to get the welfare savings from the move to Universal Credit ruled illegal.

Every chance of succeeding I'm afraid - worth remembering (and very little publicity was given to this) that the £26,000 welfare cap was only ruled legal by 3-2 in the Supreme Court earlier this year.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/dec/16/benefit-cuts-universal-credit-illegal-labour

A curious argument from Labour, which has spent much of the last four years attempting to argue that those lucky enough to have a historic entitlement to extra taxpayer-subsidised bedrooms should be able to retain those subsidies which new claimants don't get.

Still, "Labour is taking advice from lawyers" is hardly evidence that they have every chance of succeeding. IANAL, but I'd have thought they'd have no chance. They're basically saying governments can never change anything to reduce entitlement unless existing claimants have money taken directly away from them - again, the exact, diametric opposite of what they argued on working tax credits!

Danny565 · December 2015

Off-topic, the "NHS Choir" now look set to be the Xmas #1.

How many PBTories will be buying it...

murali_s · December 2015

Richard_Tyndall said:

murali_s said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

murali_s said:
O/T December CET (Central England Temperature).

Currently running at an incredible 9.2C. This month will certainly be the warmest December in the CET series (current record at 8.1C). I predict it will finish up above 9C - smashing the record!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.html
That's what you get when you get winds off the Sahara. There is a warning out because of Saharan dust affecting eastern England and causing breathing problems over the next few days. The two previous highs of 1934 and 1974 also had the same problem.
The winds are NOT coming in from the Sahara - they are of a subtropical nature originating from the Azores.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn121.gif

And where is this warning?
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/16/saharan-dust-cloud-bound-uk-health-warning

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/saharan-dust-cloud-to-hit-britain-prompts-warning-as-temperatures-set-to-climb-to-17c-a6775711.html

And basically every other news outlet you bother to look at.

And if you look at the wind charts for the Atlantic you will see the winds are blowing west out of the Sahara and then north across the Bay of Biscay and up to the UK.

http://magicseaweed.com/North-Atlantic-Surf-Chart/2/?chartType=WMAG

Ok - Seen it here.

http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/

Let's touch base tomorrow to see if it's going to be as bad as predicted (just a one-day wonder anyway!).

Speedy · December 2015

Theuniondivvie said:

Speedy said:
Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:
Again in English please.

Well I'll make a transcript for you in case you can't read:

Media Statement
Wednesday, December 16, 2015

In response to Alex Salmond

A spokesperson for the Trump Organization said:

Does anyone care what this man thinks? He's a has-been and totally irrelevant. The fact that he doesn't even know what's going on in his own constituency says it all. We have a permanent clubhouse and the business is flourishing.
He should go back to doing what he does best-unveiling pompous portraits of himself that pander to his already overinflated ego.

The Trump Organization.

https://twitter.com/jamesmatthewsky/status/677108200638951424

Does anyone disagree with the contents of this response?

NickPalmer · December 2015

Anorak said:

When people accuse me of being a nasty Tory (somewhere to the right of stills the Hun) is a frequently misused term, I retort that I would be a liberal if the Liberal party still existed and hadn't been ruined by the SDP...

It was only a capital 'L' to make the acronym more obvious

I was bemused today in my day job to get a letter from an activist in the Social Democratic Party. But it seems they do still exist, with a membership of 41...

ThreeQuidder · December 2015

As predicted by me, here, yesterday:

https://www.twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/statuses/677222546723467266

Theuniondivvie · December 2015

Speedy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Speedy said:
Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:
Again in English please.
Well I'll make a transcript for you in case you can't read:

You typed something completely indecipherable, indicating you can't write - 'Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers'.

What does 'rail' mean, and who are your 'fellow SNP'ers'?

Speedy · December 2015

Theuniondivvie said:

Speedy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Speedy said:
Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:
Again in English please.
Well I'll make a transcript for you in case you can't read:
You typed something completely indecipherable, indicating you can't write - 'Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers'.

What does 'rail' mean, and who are your 'fellow SNP'ers'?

Rail against:
http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/rail against
(do I really need to post a link to a dictionary to him?)
And you are a fellow PB'er, who is also an SNP'er I guess.

Since you have read it twice, I guess you have no objections to the content of that response.

Danny565 · December 2015

NickPalmer said:

I was bemused today in my day job to get a letter from an activist in the Social Democratic Party. But it seems they do still exist, with a membership of 41...

The original Liberal Party is still going strong(ish) in Liverpool!

Even saved their deposit in Liverpool West Derby this year, ahead of some strange newfangled creation called "the Liberal Democrats".

ThreeQuidder · December 2015

ThreeQuidder said:
As predicted by me, here, yesterday:

https://www.twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/statuses/677222546723467266

SeanT style Smug mode:

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/883083/#Comment_883083

Philip_Thompson · December 2015

Danny565 said:
Off-topic, the "NHS Choir" now look set to be the Xmas #1.

How many PBTories will be buying it...

Not me I don't buy bullshit music. If I want to back a cause I'll make a donation not buy a song. The taxman takes a donation from my pay every month to fund the NHS already.

RodCrosby · December 2015

HHemmelig said:
RodCrosby

Nick Palmer wouldn't have been "the oldest retread since the war"

Alan Clark was 69 when elected in 1997

Minor point. "Re-tread" is commonly applied to the defeated. Clark retired voluntarily, then sought a comeback.

But that would apply to Ken too, I suppose, although he would be older than Clark if the came back in mid-2016. And older than Arthur Salter in 1951.

Anyhow, 71 is bloody old to be making a comeback, however you slice it...

Dair · December 2015

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Inside your head.

Meanwhile, in the real world, things like "currency" and "prospective oil tax revenue" were big fails for the SNP
The trouble with this arguemnt is that you are arguing the majority of Scots started the indy campaign in favour of independence and currency and oil pushhed them towards No. The polling tells the exact opposite story.

I think we've reached the stage where the Loylists are simply too indoctrinated to actually think rationally about the debate. While Scotland saw the utter nonsense about the "refusal to use Sterling" the Loyalists believe the lie. While Scotland knew Oil was only ever a bonus and not core revenue and Scotland wouldn't continue to subsidise England, the Loyalists believe the lies.

Fortunately, there is a good 20% of the electorate who are "Yes but"s or persuadable "No"s that the Loyalists are almost immaterial to the debate. Scotland doesn't believe their lies and at this stage does not even listen to their lies.

This is why their debate has shifted, they no longer focus on any argument against Independence, they concentrate solely on trying to block the Second Referendum and preventing Scotland from expressing herself democratically.

But that won't work.

Tick tock.

viewcode · December 2015

Speedy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Speedy said:
Time to rail our fellow SNP'ers:
Again in English please.
Well I'll make a transcript for you in case you can't read:

Media Statement
Wednesday, December 16, 2015

In response to Alex Salmond

A spokesperson for the Trump Organization said:

Does anyone care what this man thinks? He's a has-been and totally irrelevant. The fact that he doesn't even know what's going on in his own constituency says it all. We have a permanent clubhouse and the business is flourishing.
He should go back to doing what he does best-unveiling pompous portraits of himself that pander to his already overinflated ego.

The Trump Organization...

[redacted]

Does anyone disagree with the contents of this response?

Yes. Me. Vehemently. For Trump to accuse somebody else of pandering to an overinflated ego is to require a new definition of chutzpah. I disagree with the SNP generally and Scottish Independence specifically, but that doesn't mean their battle was not sincerely meant nor that they intended anything other than the betterment of Scots. Trump's endgame is everybody kneeling to him in concentric circles. To heck with him.

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