politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If as is likely the Tories can’t win in Oldham then the bes
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One thought on Labour: they have a liquorice allsort problem.
Four layers, each contrasting with those either side: leadership at war with MPs, MPs at war with the membership, and the membership unrepresentative of the voters; each driving, or attempting to drive, the others away.0 -
Most or all of the 41 MPs who nominated Liz Kendall will be included in that number.Floater said:
Sounds like over 100 Labour MP's have suddenly found some balls.flightpath01 said:
A tweetaround of StopTheWarCorbynistas.Razedabode said:
So the answers that come back will be exactly what he wants to hear - then can point to support of members. It's an echo chamber x1000Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Hmm - so this isn't going to be a consultation of only Labour members views. Anyone can write in. https://t.co/lieMOyFpm0
Labour really are stuffed aren't they?
"humiliating" says the Telegraph.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/who-nominated-who-2015-labour-leadership-election0 -
Allegra on Newsnight says based on legal advice coup could be launched after Oldham0
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I think 5% for LD+Grn is probably about right but I'd bank on at least 10% Con.AndyJS said:
I know I'm out of step with most people in thinking the Tories will get around 7%, the LDs 3.5% and the Greens 1.5%.david_herdson said:
I don't think it would. That would only leave a maximum of 12.4% for Con, LD, Grn and MRLP combined. I really don't see those dropping below a combined 15% and probably it'll be higher.AndyJS said:If Labour retain 80% of their support in Oldham it might not be enough to win. They polled 54.8% at the general election and 43.8% could easily be a losing percentage in this particular contest.
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Based on desperation...Scott_P said:Allegra on Newsnight says based on legal advice coup could be launched after Oldham
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That's a neat summary. Each bloc has a larger bloc downstream that it can't deal with.david_herdson said:One thought on Labour: they have a liquorice allsort problem.
Four layers, each contrasting with those either side: leadership at war with MPs, MPs at war with the membership, and the membership unrepresentative of the voters; each driving, or attempting to drive, the others away.0 -
WRT Runciman, he loved Byzantium, and hated the Fourth Crusaders for sacking Constantinople (rightly so.). But, he adopted a strange my enemy's enemy is my friend attitude towards Islam.0
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Particularly when Mandela pleaded guilty to terrorism at his trial. Some (including himself) would no doubt argue that his terrorism was justified given the lack of civil rights blacks had and the oppressive nature of the regime but it was terrorism all the same and to argue otherwise is to mythologise.Sean_F said:
Opposing South African sanctions = support for terrorism is a bit of a stretch.justin124 said:
Many would argue that supporting Apartheid South Africa was tantamount to supporting terrorism. Plenty of Tories have done that over the years.glw said:
At what point does the Labour leadership's support for terrorism mean that the government has to consider making the Labour Party a proscribed organisation?Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: EXCLUSIVE: Corbyn blamed Britain for 7/7 just 10 days after the London bombs killed 52 https://t.co/8LTxZYoUI2 https://t.co/9kh6dsNEU6
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If were to be done were best to be done quickly. If enough shadow cabinet ministers resign and enough MPs refuse to serve then we will see Dianne Abbott as Foreign Secretary.HYUFD said:
2017 is still my bet for the coupjustin124 said:Unless he decides to step down of his own accord I don't think Corbyn can be removed until next Autumn.
How Pythonesque can this Labour leadership go?0 -
Looking at Heywood & Middleton, the Tory vote dropped from 12,528 at the 2010 general election to 3,496 at the 2014 by-election. Applying that to Oldham West & Royton, the Tory vote would drop from 8,187 to 2,285 which with a 40% turnout would be around 7% or just over.david_herdson said:
I think 5% for LD+Grn is probably about right but I'd bank on at least 10% Con.AndyJS said:
I know I'm out of step with most people in thinking the Tories will get around 7%, the LDs 3.5% and the Greens 1.5%.david_herdson said:
I don't think it would. That would only leave a maximum of 12.4% for Con, LD, Grn and MRLP combined. I really don't see those dropping below a combined 15% and probably it'll be higher.AndyJS said:If Labour retain 80% of their support in Oldham it might not be enough to win. They polled 54.8% at the general election and 43.8% could easily be a losing percentage in this particular contest.
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2 MPs calling for Corbyn's resignation, the BBC headlining Labour splits and their position on Syria looking incredibly incoherent.
Was this Labour's best day of the week?0 -
Abbott Shadow Foreign Secretary, McDonnell Shadow Chancellor, Dennis Skinner Shadow Home Secretary, David Lammy Justice Secretary, Cat Smith Defenceflightpath01 said:
If were to be done were best to be done quickly. If enough shadow cabinet ministers resign and enough MPs refuse to serve then we will see Dianne Abbott as Foreign Secretary.HYUFD said:
2017 is still my bet for the coupjustin124 said:Unless he decides to step down of his own accord I don't think Corbyn can be removed until next Autumn.
How Pythonesque can this Labour leadership go?0 -
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The new £3 members and Momentum aren't going to take that lying down.MarkHopkins said:
Based on desperation...Scott_P said:Allegra on Newsnight says based on legal advice coup could be launched after Oldham
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What are the circumstances under which violent resistance is justified?david_herdson said:
Particularly when Mandela pleaded guilty to terrorism at his trial. Some (including himself) would no doubt argue that his terrorism was justified given the lack of civil rights blacks had and the oppressive nature of the regime but it was terrorism all the same and to argue otherwise is to mythologise.Sean_F said:
Opposing South African sanctions = support for terrorism is a bit of a stretch.justin124 said:
Many would argue that supporting Apartheid South Africa was tantamount to supporting terrorism. Plenty of Tories have done that over the years.glw said:
At what point does the Labour leadership's support for terrorism mean that the government has to consider making the Labour Party a proscribed organisation?Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: EXCLUSIVE: Corbyn blamed Britain for 7/7 just 10 days after the London bombs killed 52 https://t.co/8LTxZYoUI2 https://t.co/9kh6dsNEU6
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I had a conversation with a Labour peer who had been campaigning in Oldham; he told me it all came down to whether UKIP could get enough votes out on election day, to counter the near criminal electoral fraud that Labour were perpetrating amongst the South East Asian vote in the constituency.
He also said the UKIP candidate was a useless drunk, but that he might still win.0 -
@gabyhinsliff: *nerd point* Syria vote row is basically abt what MPs are for; representatives or delegates? Shd they put country/ party/ constituency 1st?0
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Unfortunately for Labour, heavy rain is forecast virtually every day from now until and including polling day in Oldham, including 60mph winds on Sunday:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641022DearPB said:I had a conversation with a Labour peer who had been campaigning in Oldham; he told me it all came down to whether UKIP could get enough votes out on election day, to counter the near criminal electoral fraud that Labour were perpetrating amongst the South East Asian vote in the constituency.
He also said the UKIP candidate was a useless drunk, but that he might still win.0 -
Too right ! I've got money on him staying till at least 2017.watford30 said:
The new £3 members and Momentum aren't going to take that lying down.MarkHopkins said:
Based on desperation...Scott_P said:Allegra on Newsnight says based on legal advice coup could be launched after Oldham
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Interesting report in the Manchester Evening News:
"'People are very close to having the door slammed in their face': Labour tales from the by-election doorstep
Some Labour moderates now believe a Ukip win in Oldham West and Royton next Thursday would be for the best - because it could force a leadership coup"
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/people-very-close-having-door-105153720 -
I've seen this idea on here a couple of times that the Tories don't want UKIP to win Oldham. Rubbish.
If UKIP win Oldham then they shift their limited resources toward capturing white working class seats in the North of England; seats that the Tories will never win. In doing so they abandon coastal seats in the south (Tory held) that have been there focus until now. That leaves the Suoth of England to the Tories while Labour and UKIP battle it out for the North. Tories would rather have an opposition to the right of them than to the left.
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But the fraud has been perpetrated already; postal votes.AndyJS said:Unfortunately for Labour, heavy rain is forecast virtually every day from now until and including polling day in Oldham, including 60mph winds on Sunday:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641022DearPB said:I had a conversation with a Labour peer who had been campaigning in Oldham; he told me it all came down to whether UKIP could get enough votes out on election day, to counter the near criminal electoral fraud that Labour were perpetrating amongst the South East Asian vote in the constituency.
He also said the UKIP candidate was a useless drunk, but that he might still win.0 -
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I have elaborated on my earlier comment here about Oldham West & Royton and posted it on my own blog. In a shameless attempt to boost my hit count, here's the link:
http://www.kenbell.info/2015/11/labour-is-almost-certain-to-win-oldham.html0 -
GRM Law of 1 Bedford Row London who have advised Labour on constitutional law in the pastflightpath01 said:
http://www.grm.co.uk/0 -
It's time they were consigned to the dustbin of history.DearPB said:
But the fraud has been perpetrated already; postal votes.AndyJS said:Unfortunately for Labour, heavy rain is forecast virtually every day from now until and including polling day in Oldham, including 60mph winds on Sunday:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641022DearPB said:I had a conversation with a Labour peer who had been campaigning in Oldham; he told me it all came down to whether UKIP could get enough votes out on election day, to counter the near criminal electoral fraud that Labour were perpetrating amongst the South East Asian vote in the constituency.
He also said the UKIP candidate was a useless drunk, but that he might still win.0 -
Do we know who the person was who got Corbyn over the minimum number with minutes to go? The have a heavy burden to carry...AndyJS said:
Most or all of the 41 MPs who nominated Liz Kendall will be included in that number.Floater said:
Sounds like over 100 Labour MP's have suddenly found some balls.flightpath01 said:
A tweetaround of StopTheWarCorbynistas.Razedabode said:
So the answers that come back will be exactly what he wants to hear - then can point to support of members. It's an echo chamber x1000Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Hmm - so this isn't going to be a consultation of only Labour members views. Anyone can write in. https://t.co/lieMOyFpm0
Labour really are stuffed aren't they?
"humiliating" says the Telegraph.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/who-nominated-who-2015-labour-leadership-election
Apropos of nothing, my wife's son lives with the daughter of one of the Corbyn nominees.
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Didnt see it - but Paul Waugh tweets:
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 12m12 minutes ago
.@CllrJimMcMahon handled John Sweeney curveballs (on JC, LK + Syria) with more wit + nous than most MPs with yrs of experience. #Newsnight
Looks like Labour have got a strong local candidate (and not a parachuted in SPAD)0 -
I'd have thought the first to do so while making clear it was not in support of the man himself would carry just as much of the burden by being the first to, in effect, declare that the process they had all agreed to was stupid and that securing a broad debate was more important than ensuring a minimum level of parliamentary support (a fair position to hold, had the party not chosen the process which focused on the latter rather than the former) for any new leader.MarqueeMark said:
Do we know who the person was who got Corbyn over the minimum number with minutes to go? The have a heavy burden to carry...AndyJS said:
Most or all of the 41 MPs who nominated Liz Kendall will be included in that number.Floater said:
Sounds like over 100 Labour MP's have suddenly found some balls.flightpath01 said:
A tweetaround of StopTheWarCorbynistas.Razedabode said:
So the answers that come back will be exactly what he wants to hear - then can point to support of members. It's an echo chamber x1000Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Hmm - so this isn't going to be a consultation of only Labour members views. Anyone can write in. https://t.co/lieMOyFpm0
Labour really are stuffed aren't they?
"humiliating" says the Telegraph.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/who-nominated-who-2015-labour-leadership-election
Apropos of nothing, my wife's son lives with the daughter of one of the Corbyn nominees.0 -
" Jeremy Corbyn appears not to be a vote winner.”AndyJS said:Interesting report in the Manchester Evening News:
"'People are very close to having the door slammed in their face': Labour tales from the by-election doorstep
Some Labour moderates now believe a Ukip win in Oldham West and Royton next Thursday would be for the best - because it could force a leadership coup"
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/people-very-close-having-door-10515372
Stunning news.0 -
I think St. Thomas Aquinas set it out pretty well.rcs1000 said:
What are the circumstances under which violent resistance is justified?david_herdson said:
Particularly when Mandela pleaded guilty to terrorism at his trial. Some (including himself) would no doubt argue that his terrorism was justified given the lack of civil rights blacks had and the oppressive nature of the regime but it was terrorism all the same and to argue otherwise is to mythologise.Sean_F said:
Opposing South African sanctions = support for terrorism is a bit of a stretch.justin124 said:
Many would argue that supporting Apartheid South Africa was tantamount to supporting terrorism. Plenty of Tories have done that over the years.glw said:
At what point does the Labour leadership's support for terrorism mean that the government has to consider making the Labour Party a proscribed organisation?Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: EXCLUSIVE: Corbyn blamed Britain for 7/7 just 10 days after the London bombs killed 52 https://t.co/8LTxZYoUI2 https://t.co/9kh6dsNEU6
1. Is the use of violence less of an evil than the evil that is being perpetrated?
2. Is the use of violence a last resort, when peaceful methods of resistance have produced no result?
3, Does the use of violence have a reasonable prospect of success?
4. If 1-3 apply, are the methods that you use to perpetrate violence justified?0 -
The French Defence Minister seemed to think we had 'proper resources'.....Y0kel said:There is no point the UK being involved in striking IS unless its going to bring proper resources. If its a similar situation to the RAF involvement in Iraq where a single or two Tornados seem to pop out once a day , its not going to add anything effective even as a component of an alliance of countries.
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Actually, it is more subtle than that. Should they put their own views, their local party member views or their wider constituency voters views first?Scott_P said:@gabyhinsliff: *nerd point* Syria vote row is basically abt what MPs are for; representatives or delegates? Shd they put country/ party/ constituency 1st?
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@TelePolitics: Jeremy Corbyn leadership crisis: how can Labour MPs get rid of him? https://t.co/1kVrYAkeqU0
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When people are denied other means of expression.rcs1000 said:
What are the circumstances under which violent resistance is justified?david_herdson said:
Particularly when Mandela pleaded guilty to terrorism at his trial. Some (including himself) would no doubt argue that his terrorism was justified given the lack of civil rights blacks had and the oppressive nature of the regime but it was terrorism all the same and to argue otherwise is to mythologise.Sean_F said:
Opposing South African sanctions = support for terrorism is a bit of a stretch.justin124 said:
Many would argue that supporting Apartheid South Africa was tantamount to supporting terrorism. Plenty of Tories have done that over the years.glw said:
At what point does the Labour leadership's support for terrorism mean that the government has to consider making the Labour Party a proscribed organisation?Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: EXCLUSIVE: Corbyn blamed Britain for 7/7 just 10 days after the London bombs killed 52 https://t.co/8LTxZYoUI2 https://t.co/9kh6dsNEU6
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Pls elaborate on "near criminal electoral fraud" if you can.DearPB said:I had a conversation with a Labour peer who had been campaigning in Oldham; he told me it all came down to whether UKIP could get enough votes out on election day, to counter the near criminal electoral fraud that Labour were perpetrating amongst the South East Asian vote in the constituency.
He also said the UKIP candidate was a useless drunk, but that he might still win.0 -
The Newsnight debate was fascinating.rottenborough said:Actually, it is more subtle than that. Should they put their own views, their local party member views or their wider constituency voters views first?
NUS member (Corbyn backer) who said MPs must vote members views (no bombing)
Labour MP who said the PLP needed a collective stance on war, whether that be for or against
Phil Collins who said it would be "unprecedented and remarkable" if a shadow foreign or defence secretary voted against a leadership whip on a question of war without resigning0 -
@timothy_stanley: 1962. The Cuban Missile Crisis. And John Kennedy writes to all Democrats to say "I'd like to hear your views on what I should do..." #Corbyn0
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Labour MPs will simply oust the leader before they get a chance and impose their own choice a la Michael Howard, all it needs is a by election loss to UKIP to provide the catalystwatford30 said:
Corbyn's supporters will simply respond with 'If you don't like the elected leader, leave the party and we'll replace you'. Labour are screwed.AndyJS said://twitter.com/UK__News/status/670343854948683776
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I think Collins is right. But we are in new territory -- or is that "the new politics"?Scott_P said:
The Newsnight debate was fascinating.rottenborough said:Actually, it is more subtle than that. Should they put their own views, their local party member views or their wider constituency voters views first?
NUS member (Corbyn backer) who said MPs must vote members views (no bombing)
Labour MP who said the PLP needed a collective stance on war, whether that be for or against
Phil Collins who said it would be "unprecedented and remarkable" if a shadow foreign or defence secretary voted against a leadership whip on a question of war without resigning
What a clusterf****. Malcolm Tucker would not be able to find words.0 -
It's probably just a coincidence but both of the MPs calling for Corbyn to resign, Spellar and Mactaggart, represent constituencies with two of the highest Sikh populations in the country: Slough (10.6%) and Warley (12.3%).0
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Their duty is clearly to represent their constituents and their own consciences. Not the views of a self-selected bunch of activists.rottenborough said:
Actually, it is more subtle than that. Should they put their own views, their local party member views or their wider constituency voters views first?Scott_P said:@gabyhinsliff: *nerd point* Syria vote row is basically abt what MPs are for; representatives or delegates? Shd they put country/ party/ constituency 1st?
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Apols if posted before - but from Allegra Stratton:Scott_P said:
The Newsnight debate was fascinating.rottenborough said:Actually, it is more subtle than that. Should they put their own views, their local party member views or their wider constituency voters views first?
NUS member (Corbyn backer) who said MPs must vote members views (no bombing)
Labour MP who said the PLP needed a collective stance on war, whether that be for or against
Phil Collins who said it would be "unprecedented and remarkable" if a shadow foreign or defence secretary voted against a leadership whip on a question of war without resigning
Corbyn appealing directly to members for views on Syria with online poll to "undercut" views of shadow cabinet. Just gone out to members now
I've been told often this is how Corbyn will run Labour - plebiscites to show members with him even if parli party not. First signs tonight
I've seen Corbyn message to Labour members. Makes clear he's opposed and wants their views by "start of next week". Corbynistas V Cabinet
Lab folk furious about tonight's Corbyn poll of members: "Cynical attempt to circumvent majority of the public who MPs actually represent."
Another source says "this might be last straw". Feeling that Corbyn wants to run party from membership. RIP representative Labour democracy
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Andrew Smith, Labour MP for Oxford East since 1987, according to this:MarqueeMark said:
Do we know who the person was who got Corbyn over the minimum number with minutes to go? The have a heavy burden to carry...AndyJS said:
Most or all of the 41 MPs who nominated Liz Kendall will be included in that number.Floater said:
Sounds like over 100 Labour MP's have suddenly found some balls.flightpath01 said:
A tweetaround of StopTheWarCorbynistas.Razedabode said:
So the answers that come back will be exactly what he wants to hear - then can point to support of members. It's an echo chamber x1000Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Hmm - so this isn't going to be a consultation of only Labour members views. Anyone can write in. https://t.co/lieMOyFpm0
Labour really are stuffed aren't they?
"humiliating" says the Telegraph.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/who-nominated-who-2015-labour-leadership-election
Apropos of nothing, my wife's son lives with the daughter of one of the Corbyn nominees.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/corbyn-s-success-is-down-to-one-man-now-what-was-his-name-10450633.html0 -
I get the feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of 'last straws'.CarlottaVance said:
Apols if posted before - but from Allegra Stratton:Scott_P said:
The Newsnight debate was fascinating.rottenborough said:Actually, it is more subtle than that. Should they put their own views, their local party member views or their wider constituency voters views first?
NUS member (Corbyn backer) who said MPs must vote members views (no bombing)
Labour MP who said the PLP needed a collective stance on war, whether that be for or against
Phil Collins who said it would be "unprecedented and remarkable" if a shadow foreign or defence secretary voted against a leadership whip on a question of war without resigning
Corbyn appealing directly to members for views on Syria with online poll to "undercut" views of shadow cabinet. Just gone out to members now
I've been told often this is how Corbyn will run Labour - plebiscites to show members with him even if parli party not. First signs tonight
I've seen Corbyn message to Labour members. Makes clear he's opposed and wants their views by "start of next week". Corbynistas V Cabinet
Lab folk furious about tonight's Corbyn poll of members: "Cynical attempt to circumvent majority of the public who MPs actually represent."
Another source says "this might be last straw". Feeling that Corbyn wants to run party from membership. RIP representative Labour democracy
Good night all.0 -
More to the point, is Phil planning to release a new album?Scott_P said:
The Newsnight debate was fascinating.rottenborough said:Actually, it is more subtle than that. Should they put their own views, their local party member views or their wider constituency voters views first?
NUS member (Corbyn backer) who said MPs must vote members views (no bombing)
Labour MP who said the PLP needed a collective stance on war, whether that be for or against
Phil Collins who said it would be "unprecedented and remarkable" if a shadow foreign or defence secretary voted against a leadership whip on a question of war without resigning0 -
Labour MPs?david_herdson said:
When people are denied other means of expression.rcs1000 said:
What are the circumstances under which violent resistance is justified?david_herdson said:
Particularly when Mandela pleaded guilty to terrorism at his trial. Some (including himself) would no doubt argue that his terrorism was justified given the lack of civil rights blacks had and the oppressive nature of the regime but it was terrorism all the same and to argue otherwise is to mythologise.Sean_F said:
Opposing South African sanctions = support for terrorism is a bit of a stretch.justin124 said:
Many would argue that supporting Apartheid South Africa was tantamount to supporting terrorism. Plenty of Tories have done that over the years.glw said:
At what point does the Labour leadership's support for terrorism mean that the government has to consider making the Labour Party a proscribed organisation?Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: EXCLUSIVE: Corbyn blamed Britain for 7/7 just 10 days after the London bombs killed 52 https://t.co/8LTxZYoUI2 https://t.co/9kh6dsNEU6
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More right wing press criticism of Livingstone:
Ken Livingstone stated last night on BBC Question Time that the 7/7 bombers committed their acts of terror in London in 2005 in protest at the Iraq invasion. Words cannot describe how let down I felt by a man for whom I have voted for in the past and rallied behind against the invasion of Iraq.....
He seemed to be suggesting that if you were affected by the Iraq war, and you are grieving, you get a free pass to propagate any message you like as well as act on it – even if it leads to terrorism.
http://leftfootforward.org/2015/11/hijacking-the-iraq-war-to-justify-extremism/0 -
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South East Asians in Oldham West?DearPB said:I had a conversation with a Labour peer who had been campaigning in Oldham; he told me it all came down to whether UKIP could get enough votes out on election day, to counter the near criminal electoral fraud that Labour were perpetrating amongst the South East Asian vote in the constituency.
He also said the UKIP candidate was a useless drunk, but that he might still win.0 -
I don't think it's official yet, but it does seem that Charles Edward Kelly and the Eagles will be parting company. In the offseason he got personnel control, so this is a self-inflicted wound.Scott_P said:
In other news, my Thanksgiving message this year.Tim_B said:SNIP
I am grateful Chip Kelly will not be coaching the Eagles next season
And the Cowboys will not be in the Superbowl...
It's mathematically possible Dallas could make the playoffs but if I was a fan I would doubt it. Yesterday's game was not an impressive performance and Romo was hurt again.0 -
Jeremy Against All Odds.Tim_B said:
More to the point, is Phil planning to release a new album?Scott_P said:
The Newsnight debate was fascinating.rottenborough said:Actually, it is more subtle than that. Should they put their own views, their local party member views or their wider constituency voters views first?
NUS member (Corbyn backer) who said MPs must vote members views (no bombing)
Labour MP who said the PLP needed a collective stance on war, whether that be for or against
Phil Collins who said it would be "unprecedented and remarkable" if a shadow foreign or defence secretary voted against a leadership whip on a question of war without resigning0 -
Jonathan Freedland:
Canvassers on the doorstep ahead of next week’s Oldham byelection report incredulity among past Labour voters at the antics of the men at the top. As for the voters of middle England, some of whom at least will have to find Labour acceptable if the party is ever to return to government, the current leadership is all but urging them to stay away.
So when MPs or other Labour voices condemn Corbyn and his team, their chief motive is not ideological disagreement. It is their hardening conviction that, with each daily misstep, the ruling circle is making Labour unelectable and turning the Tories’ lease on Downing Street into a freehold.
That’s what they speak about privately. That’s what gets the veins bulging in their neck. Their belief that Labour is guaranteeing the Tories at least 10 more years in office: after which the NHS, the welfare state, the BBC, the country itself, will be unrecognisable.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/27/misstep-corbyn-terror-mao-labour-alienating-supporters
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My God! Have they cloned him?Floater said:
Sounds like over 100 Labour MP's have suddenly found some balls.flightpath01 said:
A tweetaround of StopTheWarCorbynistas.Razedabode said:
So the answers that come back will be exactly what he wants to hear - then can point to support of members. It's an echo chamber x1000Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Hmm - so this isn't going to be a consultation of only Labour members views. Anyone can write in. https://t.co/lieMOyFpm0
Labour really are stuffed aren't they?
"humiliating" says the Telegraph.0 -
Regarding the question of the reported conflicting legal advice on whether Labour MPs could stitch up a contest to exclude Corbyn following a challenge, there are two big obstacles. The first has already been mentioned: even if it could be done, the politics of it would be awful, the cries of 'betrayal' would make this an epic split of Labour as bad as 1931.
The second problem is that the initial ruling on the exact rules would surely be made by the NEC. As we saw today with the refenestration of Andrew Fisher, the entryists have already grabbed control of the NEC, so the ruling would be in the favour of the Corbyn camp. That would leave the anti-Corbyn camp in the invidious position of having to go to court to try to overturn the NEC ruling - never a good position to be in, and I suspect one which would be bound to fail. Courts are going to be extremely reluctant to interfere in an internal party matter.0 -
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Might that have something to do with one box on the ballot paper saying "Labour"?HYUFD said:
Surprising as it may seem Oldham voters are not sheep and can pick up a pencil and put an x in a box which is not next to the name of the Labour candidate!kle4 said:
Bah, what are they going to do about it? Not vote in Labour?HYUFD said:3/4 Oldham voters had a negative view of Corbyn on BBC News at 10
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On topic: to be honest I don't think the Conservatives will be too fussed either way.
However, if John Bickley does win, UKIP will have a tricky problem, because he and Douglas Carswell are unlikely to agree on very much.0 -
There's quite a lot of doubt out there, I think, and it wouldn't be healthy if Parliament pretended to be hugely in favour. People were in favour of Iraq according to the polls just before we decided on that but it was quite shallow and shifted away quickly. An air war is less intensely controversial since British casualties are likely to be very small if any - but equally it'll be difficult to show any concrete benefits. Corbyn should stick to his guns since it's clearly what he believes and he may well be proved right. It's interesting that every around him is urging a free vote, and I guess that's the most likely.HYUFD said:
49 29 is not 2 to 1 that would be 58 29 and there is little difference between 49 29 and 44 35 that cannot be accounted for by their being different pollsters in both cases Corbyn is going against public opinion and that of Labour voters
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The French president has called on MPs to back UK air strikes in Syria, following the terror attacks in Paris earlier this month.
President Hollande thanked the UK for its support in the wake of the attacks and said he hoped MPs would back David Cameron's case for military action.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34945224
Jeremy knows better......
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I'm sure UKIP will cope with that minor issue.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: to be honest I don't think the Conservatives will be too fussed either way.
However, if John Bickley does win, UKIP will have a tricky problem, because he and Douglas Carswell are unlikely to agree on very much.0 -
New Thread New Thread
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You mentioned David Lammy and, although it's old, it's still hilarious, I offer you DL on Mastermind https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsR4Nx-ELgcHYUFD said:
Abbott Shadow Foreign Secretary, McDonnell Shadow Chancellor, Dennis Skinner Shadow Home Secretary, David Lammy Justice Secretary, Cat Smith Defenceflightpath01 said:
If were to be done were best to be done quickly. If enough shadow cabinet ministers resign and enough MPs refuse to serve then we will see Dianne Abbott as Foreign Secretary.HYUFD said:
2017 is still my bet for the coupjustin124 said:Unless he decides to step down of his own accord I don't think Corbyn can be removed until next Autumn.
How Pythonesque can this Labour leadership go?
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Andy, thanks for that.AndyJS said:
Andrew Smith, Labour MP for Oxford East since 1987, according to this:MarqueeMark said:
Do we know who the person was who got Corbyn over the minimum number with minutes to go? The have a heavy burden to carry...AndyJS said:
Most or all of the 41 MPs who nominated Liz Kendall will be included in that number.Floater said:
Sounds like over 100 Labour MP's have suddenly found some balls.flightpath01 said:
A tweetaround of StopTheWarCorbynistas.Razedabode said:
So the answers that come back will be exactly what he wants to hear - then can point to support of members. It's an echo chamber x1000Scott_P said:@rosschawkins: Hmm - so this isn't going to be a consultation of only Labour members views. Anyone can write in. https://t.co/lieMOyFpm0
Labour really are stuffed aren't they?
"humiliating" says the Telegraph.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/who-nominated-who-2015-labour-leadership-election
Apropos of nothing, my wife's son lives with the daughter of one of the Corbyn nominees.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/corbyn-s-success-is-down-to-one-man-now-what-was-his-name-10450633.html0 -
Lack of recourse to the ballot box is a sine qua non, coupled with severe repression. Hard to be precise.rcs1000 said:
What are the circumstances under which violent resistance is justified?david_herdson said:
Particularly when Mandela pleaded guilty to terrorism at his trial. Some (including himself) would no doubt argue that his terrorism was justified given the lack of civil rights blacks had and the oppressive nature of the regime but it was terrorism all the same and to argue otherwise is to mythologise.Sean_F said:
Opposing South African sanctions = support for terrorism is a bit of a stretch.justin124 said:
Many would argue that supporting Apartheid South Africa was tantamount to supporting terrorism. Plenty of Tories have done that over the years.glw said:
At what point does the Labour leadership's support for terrorism mean that the government has to consider making the Labour Party a proscribed organisation?Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: EXCLUSIVE: Corbyn blamed Britain for 7/7 just 10 days after the London bombs killed 52 https://t.co/8LTxZYoUI2 https://t.co/9kh6dsNEU6
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They supported Iraq with a UN mandate though I agree strikes will need to co-ordinate with ground forcesNickPalmer said:
There's quite a lot of doubt out there, I think, and it wouldn't be healthy if Parliament pretended to be hugely in favour. People were in favour of Iraq according to the polls just before we decided on that but it was quite shallow and shifted away quickly. An air war is less intensely controversial since British casualties are likely to be very small if any - but equally it'll be difficult to show any concrete benefits. Corbyn should stick to his guns since it's clearly what he believes and he may well be proved right. It's interesting that every around him is urging a free vote, and I guess that's the most likely.HYUFD said:
49 29 is not 2 to 1 that would be 58 29 and there is little difference between 49 29 and 44 35 that cannot be accounted for by their being different pollsters in both cases Corbyn is going against public opinion and that of Labour voters0 -
He is clearly trying to affirm his leftwing credentialsReggieCide said:
You mentioned David Lammy and, although it's old, it's still hilarious, I offer you DL on Mastermind https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsR4Nx-ELgcHYUFD said:
Abbott Shadow Foreign Secretary, McDonnell Shadow Chancellor, Dennis Skinner Shadow Home Secretary, David Lammy Justice Secretary, Cat Smith Defenceflightpath01 said:
If were to be done were best to be done quickly. Ih shadow cabinet ministers resign and enough MPs refuse to serve then we will see Dianne Abbott as Foreign Secretary.HYUFD said:
2017 is still my bet for the coupjustin124 said:Unless he decides to step down of his own accord I don't think Corbyn can be removed until next Autumn.
How Pythonesque can this Labour leadership go?0
