Undefined discussion subject.

Two thoughts following to-days shambles.....

!. I'm wondering whether Corbyn cares what damage he does to Labour's electoral chances. He's never shown loyalty to the party and with to Ed's new rules he can easily take the party down with him.

2. Having heard Tom Watson I wonder whether he's eyeing the prize. Under other circumstances unthinkable but as an alternative to what's unfolding the Party will be desperate for any lifeline. He's one of the very few savvy enough to do an Iago which he seemed to have started doing this morning.

God help us!

Roger said:

Two thoughts following to-days shambles.....

!. I'm wondering whether Corbyn cares what damage he does to Labour's electoral chances. He's never shown loyalty to the party and with to Ed's new rules he can easily take the party down with him.

2. Having heard Tom Watson I wonder whether he's eyeing the prize. Under other circumstances unthinkable but as an alternative to what's unfolding the Party will be desperate for any lifeline. He's one of the very few savvy enough to do an Iago which he seemed to have started doing this morning.

God help us!

My personal opinion is that the 'men in grey boiler suits', as they used to say, will come for Corbyn in the near future. And then it will be over.

F1: more financial buggery. Lotus-Renault was pretty much a done deal. Except now it might not be:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/34945796

Heard the one about the fake Dutch handyman and the fake ambulance. No it isn't some sort of cliche pron movie.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-34947837

The basic problem with Corbyn is not that he is a pacifist, that he is surrounded by unpleasant trots who regard most MPs an enemies of the people, or that he is poor at public speaking (though he is all of these things).

The problem is that he is incapable of carrying out the role of a party leader. A leader has to modify their own cherished beliefs to fit around those of his colleagues and the wider electorate - Kinnock abandoned unilateral disarmament, Cameron promoted an EU referendum even though everyone knows that neither really wanted to take these steps - they were compelled to do so by political forces that could not be resisted.

Corbyn is incapable of making these compromises - to him politics is an endless round of protests, meetings with people who agree with him and rebelling against whatever leadership happened to be in place at the time. Compromise is not in his dictionary. It is probably not an exaggeration to say that out of the 650 members of the House of Commons Corbyn is the least suited to a leadership role. The abject failure which is now unfolding should surprise no one - if you appoint a candidate fundamentally unsuited to a job you will have to sack them in short order minimise the damage. Labour cannot begin to repair the damage until he is gone.

Luckyguy1983 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Assad's army is mostly Sunni. Syrians mostly just want to be Syrians. Balkanising the nation into warring factions is a Qatari, Saudi, Turkish wet dream; it has nothing to do with the aspirations of normal people who live there. We have no right to impose this on the country - mop up the terrorists and GTFO; leave Syrians choose whomever they want to lead their country out of this Western-wrought mess of a 'revolution'.

Thanks and good night.

They've had a civil war in which the ruling regime and all the other sides have committed atrocities. It may be many years too late to move fully back to how it was before; the distrust between communities will be massive.

I like how you know the aspirations of normal people who live there (and I assume you are including refugees who wish to go back).

Using your language: going back to how it was before is a wet dream of pro-Assad fools.

IE Most Syrians.

So you say. But if you hadn't noticed, there's a civil war going on, caused by large parts of the population fighting Assad's forces.

I don't particularly want Syria to be split up. But there needs to be a way for the discontent and anger that caused the civil war to be sated without warfare and without splitting it. A federal solution may - just - be a way of doing it. And whoever leads the federation needs to be able to be trusted by all regions.

And Assad isn't that man, however much you may want him to be. After all, he was in charge when the civil war started, and his regime has committed atrocious crimes.

A federal structure *may* be a way of easing tensions by giving a certain amount of self-determination to different groups whilst still acting as a country.

Going back to Assad running the country will not ease those tensions.

@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.

Mr. P, presumably the whips are offering a free gimp suit to every MP who's in favour of that.

Mr. Pulpstar, in the same way Croesus launched a war after the Oracle told him it would destroy a great empire [which turned out to be his].

Scott_P said:

@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.

Oh dear God.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Lab backbenchers bottle it and decide at the last minute not to support Cameron.

Number 1 concern will be keeping their jobs and not getting deselected.

I don't think Corbyn is going anywhere.

Only way he might go is if a very big hitter - and that probably means Johnson - challenges him. And he'll have to move very quick. Every day the hard left is gaining power in local parties.

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

Floater said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...

@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate

Yep. Compare that to how Denis Healey and others fought for their party.

Then the Labour party is going to become a very different (and unelectable) animal.

Unbelievable really.

It is. Historians will have enormous fun unravelling how this happened. Generally they don't like the idea of single moments upon fortune turns these days. But I can't help thinking you could argue this is entirely down to the moment of madness when 15 or so Lab MPs put Corbyn on the ballot 'for a debate'.

It has succeeded.

Labour is having the mother of all debates about it's future now.

That's what Beckett wanted wasn't it ?

It's not really a debate, though, is it? It's more of various MPs talking to each other going "WTF??!" "Fuck him". "What's he gone and fucking done/said this time" "Fuck me" and "Oh, FFS!" "This is the last straw." "What are you going to do?" "Nothing"

I mean, the only debate seems to be about which particular swear word is used.

Edited: I realise the last sentence probably applies to me today but in my defence I am channelling my inner SeanT/Labour MP.

I wouldn't even put money on there being a vote on Syria.

Monday morning all (or almost all) Lab backbenchers will have reconsidered and Cameron won't be able to risk it.

It needs to be a clear win too.

MikeL said:

I wouldn't even put money on their being a vote on Syria.

Monday morning all (or almost all) Lab backbenchers will have reconsidered and Cameron won't be able to risk it.

Plato_Says said:

It needs to be a clear win too.

MikeL said:

I wouldn't even put money on their being a vote on Syria.

Monday morning all (or almost all) Lab backbenchers will have reconsidered and Cameron won't be able to risk it.

Yep. It's all over. Complete waste of time. No chance of it going ahead.

And, of course, this is then going to be portrayed as a HUGE WIN FOR CORBYN.

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.

Playing silly buggers....either back it or not. No more pissing about.

103 back benchers got a chance to ask questions yesterday. Cameron was there for 2.5 hours. He could not have had more time to set things out clearly and in enough detail.

The case has been made. You might not agree with it. But the case has been put.

Labour needs to grow up. But it won't.

Labour has been hi-jacked.

Will someone overpower those responsible before they crash the plane?

Pulpstar

"That's what Beckett wanted wasn't it ? "

'Endgame?'

Mr. Floater, jein. Muppets like Beckett gave the keys to the lunatics, and are now complaining they're in the driving seat.

MikeL said:

Plato_Says said:

It needs to be a clear win too.

MikeL said:

I wouldn't even put money on their being a vote on Syria.

Monday morning all (or almost all) Lab backbenchers will have reconsidered and Cameron won't be able to risk it.

Yep. It's all over. Complete waste of time. No chance of it going ahead.

And, of course, this is then going to be portrayed as a HUGE WIN FOR CORBYN.

Dave should be able to persuade his own backbenchers.

Who are the peaceniks on the Tory benches btw ?

Scott_P said:

@GrahamJones_MP: Seems like @PeoplesMomentum are beginning a mass emailing of Labour MPs in support of @jeremycorbyn peace position. https://t.co/eq6OT6rWKx

It's not a peace position though is it? He just wants us to sit there and continue to take it.

If one side still trying to kill you that is no peace.

@CraftyCraig: And this is just one day..... #Labour #SaveJez https://t.co/nlBfriHZB2

Momentum big day out tommorow:

London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!

DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th
Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA
RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th
Empress Coaches

MikeL said:

I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.

An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.

How?

More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.

Patrick said:

I view the Left as coming in two types:
A. Basically decent, moderate, prepared to balance budgets but at a high level of tax and spend, non-PC mad, proud of their nation, internationally engaging, pragmatists, care what most people think - normal but a bit lefty; and
B. Grievance mongers, dividers, terrorist sympathisers, economic fantasists, ideologues, vegan fascists, union dinosaurs, Stop The War, egg chuckers - you know the crowd

Labour's heart has always been more to B but they were governed by A types. B feels permanently aggrieved that A is more popular and the fact that Tories can win electoral majorities simply does not compute. The danger with Labour (in most voters eyes) is that B is always threatening to emerge from the shadows. You know that Labour will spend all the money but you also kind of fear they'll do something insane or spiteful to placate their B mob banging on the dungeon doors to get out.

New Labour was an anomaly. The mob somehow lost its mojo for a while. They're back now! B is in full control. And there is no mechanism for an A type to get elected leader. The PLP is mostly A but they don't select the leader. A lefty split has been in the offing since the 1980s. Which was, errr, the last time they split. B can't forever be kept in the dungeon. A can move on and create its own party. B will then fade into nothingness (a la SWP, Left Unity, etc). A 'New A' party might succeed for a while. But then the dungeon monsters who will have gravitated across - members and all - will resurface.

The underlying problem is that Socialism doesn't work. And B is simply incapable of learning it. The only thing voters can sensibly do is keep B well away from the levers of power.

And, as a righty, much as this might appeal in the long term, I don't think it is good for the right to go un-opposed, unchallenged.

It would be good for all in British politics if Labour finally died. And a decent, sensible, 'B free' new party of the left emerged.

Where do all the Labour MPs fit who engage in endless virtue signalling? I am thinking the likes of Mrs Balls. There are far far too many Labour MPs who cry racist and bigot as soon as immigration or refugees are mentioned.

Pulpstar said:

Momentum Social - Curry with a few words from John McDonnell
Tomorrow 16:45 · Oldham, United Kingdom

More words of wisdom from Chairman McMao and his little red book?

Remind me how that blocking military action in Syria by playing silly buggers worked out for Ed Miliband?

Pulpstar said:

oxfordsimon said:

MikeL said:

I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.

An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.

How?

More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.

Could take some votes off Greens, Lib Dems....

He has already got that sort of support. He isn't going to get it from the Labour heartlands - where patriotism is still a powerful motivating factor

Pulpstar said:

Momentum Social - Curry with a few words from John McDonnell
Tomorrow 16:45 · Oldham, United Kingdom

How nice a curry? I can put up with many words for a good curry.

Floater said:

Scott_P said:

@GrahamJones_MP: Seems like @PeoplesMomentum are beginning a mass emailing of Labour MPs in support of @jeremycorbyn peace position. https://t.co/eq6OT6rWKx

If one side still trying to kill you that is no peace.

Indeed. The options are not 'do nothing and have peace', it's 'do nothing and hope a bad situation gets no worse'

kle4 said:

Floater said:

Scott_P said:

@GrahamJones_MP: Seems like @PeoplesMomentum are beginning a mass emailing of Labour MPs in support of @jeremycorbyn peace position. https://t.co/eq6OT6rWKx

If one side still trying to kill you that is no peace.

Indeed. The options are not 'do nothing and have peace', it's 'do nothing and hope a bad situation gets no worse'

Appeasement always works so well........

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.

Playing silly buggers....either back it or not. No more pissing about.

Quite. Reasonable people will still differ after the case was put, and despite vehement disagreement at least everyone will see what they each stand. So long as no one attempts to weasel out of taking an actual stand.

Cyclefree said:

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.

An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.

Didn't work for Labour or Ed last time. I don't see why it would work this time, especially since there is a clear majority of people in favour of military action.

It's more likely to be presented as Labour not being prepared to take on IS. And when an IS atrocity happens here, then Labour's inaction will be blamed.

That's the risk for Labour.

The plain unvarnished facts are clear to all. The shadow cabinet were given a security presentation the other day. By er... The security services.
Corbyn turned up 15 minutes late.
Does this not tell us the plain facts of just about everything?

Scott_P said:

@GrahamJones_MP: Seems like @PeoplesMomentum are beginning a mass emailing of Labour MPs in support of @jeremycorbyn peace position. https://t.co/eq6OT6rWKx

Corbyn's position is not peace. It's surrender. It's the peace of the graveyard.

EdM supporters used to hail *winning* safe seats as something to shout about/glorious vindication of his leadership.

TOPPING said:

MikeL said:

I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.

An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.

I agree or at least give him a cushion. Plus the Oldham win (for it shall be) he will feel as though he is doing at least as well as any other opposition leader 100 +/- days in and better than many of them.

Lab MPs would then have to consider whether to keep up the insurgency. Lab would be basking in no small amount of success as far as the casual onlooker would be concerned (ie not here on PB), and to rail against that might seem less sensible from a pragmatic survivalist perspective.

Imo, a very good comment (on a very poor article) on Syria http://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/64067957.

Loved the whole comment - esp this bit

The sixth, and perhaps most ridiculous, is this repeated chorus of "That's what ISIS want". Seriously, who cares what they "want"? Why is that a consideration? We're looking to destroy them, not spite them. The fact that they want some long-prophesied showdown at Dabiq is no reason not to give it to them. We can rest assured that no messiah will come to their rescue, and those among them who eagerly await their meeting with Allah can be helped to achieve their goal, to everyone's benefit, with the rest scattering underground. After all the evil things us Westerners have done to them, it's the least we can do at this point.

Wanderer said:

Imo, a very good comment (on a very poor article) on Syria http://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/64067957.

MikeL

'I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn"

Very unlikely. Cameron's argument was feeble yesterday but being a pacifist is no argument at all. Any credit for preventing Cameron making the wrong decision will vanish into the ether.

Pulpstar said:

Momentum big day out tommorow:

London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!

DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th
Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA
RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th
Empress Coaches

Departs 8.15?
They are not going to spend much time canvassing given the usual state of the M6 - do they know where Oldham is?
And they are having a curry 4.45.

Plato_Says said:

Loved the whole comment - esp this bit

The sixth, and perhaps most ridiculous, is this repeated chorus of "That's what ISIS want". Seriously, who cares what they "want"? Why is that a consideration? We're looking to destroy them, not spite them. The fact that they want some long-prophesied showdown at Dabiq is no reason not to give it to them. We can rest assured that no messiah will come to their rescue, and those among them who eagerly await their meeting with Allah can be helped to achieve their goal, to everyone's benefit, with the rest scattering underground. After all the evil things us Westerners have done to them, it's the least we can do at this point.

Wanderer said:

Imo, a very good comment (on a very poor article) on Syria http://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/64067957.

A very good comment. I'm not chomping at the bit to do some retaliatory bombing or sold that this time we will get intervention right, but that particular argument has been pretty silly. Even the argument they want it as it helps fuel further extremism doesn't hold water, as they don't seem to have a problem furthering it as it is, and any action taken or not taken they will attempt to use for that purpose, including the crusades.

As it is, perhaps the problem behind groups like them cannot be solved - namely that millions of people support their views - but perhaps it can be beaten down temporarily at least.

oxfordsimon said:

Cameron could just shut all of this down tonight. Use the prerogative to start military action.

The constitution gives him the right. Though he probably doesn't want to use it. He might just have to.

I agree but the danger is not, let us say, an invasion fleet or columns of tanks rolling towards us.
When a person was a direct planner of an attack on our soil we did IIRC take him out with a drone strike in Syria, and we helped the Americans I think with Jihadi John.
I think that policy should and will continue.

"Jeremy Corbyn told to resign by Labour MPs as Syria vote engulfs his leadership

The Labour leader, who has pulled out of a visit to the Oldham by-election, is facing calls to quit after he is accused of treating his shadow cabinet with 'contempt' over Syria air strikes"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12020202/Jeremy-Corbyn-cancels-Oldham-by-election-visit-as-crisis-over-Syria-engulfs-his-leadership.html

MikeL said:

oxfordsimon said:

MikeL said:

I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.

An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.

How?

More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.

How robust are the polls on that?

ie how many polls, question wording etc?

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/11/25/strong-and-continued-support-raf-air-strikes-syria/

Pretty clear cut, even a plurality in favour of British and American ground forces.

Plato_Says said:

Talk about procrastination

Yvette Cooper writes to the PM to ask for security and Defence briefings for MPs on Monday before making up their minds on air strikes

The main parties have had those briefings. What else can be said? Not all MPs have the clearance for full briefings.

Plato_Says said:

Talk about procrastination

Yvette Cooper writes to the PM to ask for security and Defence briefings for MPs on Monday before making up their minds on air strikes

The Shadow Cabinet have already had one.

But maybe this is a ploy to act as cover for ignoring all the weekend emails tweets and bricks through the window and the horse's head at the foot of the bed.

Whoops:

"14,000 illegal immigrants disappear in Sweden without trace
More than 14,000 foreign nationals told to leave Sweden have instead gone underground, with police saying there is little they can do to enforce deportation orders."

http://www.thelocal.se/20151127/14000-illegal-immigrants-disappear-without-trace

Plato_Says said:

It's 4hrs 8 mins according to GoogleMaps. I suspect it will be longer from Central London with Christmas shopping traffic

flightpath01 said:

Pulpstar said:

Momentum big day out tommorow:

London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!

DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th
Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA
RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th
Empress Coaches

Departs 8.15?
They are not going to spend much time canvassing given the usual state of the M6 - do they know where Oldham is?
And they are having a curry 4.45.

Did you include the service station breaks? Do we allow for it leaving on time? 15 minutes late is now quite fashionable I hear.
Do we allow for it to be a speed limited coach?
Do we allow for the early arrival for the curries?
Come on this is a betting forum, just how much canvassing will get done?
Two and a half hours?

I expected at latest a 7:30 start. And arriving back around 1am to make a trip worthwhile.

Assuming a 20 mins pee break on route plus at least 4hrs 25mins travelling - that's a 1pm start/wasting time getting into groups/leaflets etc.

So maybe 3.5hrs max total?

flightpath01 said:

Plato_Says said:

It's 4hrs 8 mins according to GoogleMaps. I suspect it will be longer from Central London with Christmas shopping traffic

flightpath01 said:

Pulpstar said:

Momentum big day out tommorow:

London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!

DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th
Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA
RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th
Empress Coaches

Departs 8.15?
They are not going to spend much time canvassing given the usual state of the M6 - do they know where Oldham is?
And they are having a curry 4.45.

Did you include the service station breaks? Do we allow for it leaving on time? 15 minutes late is now quite fashionable I hear.
Do we allow for it to be a speed limited coach?
Do we allow for the early arrival for the curries?
Come on this is a betting forum, just how much canvassing will get done?
Two and a half hours?