Genuine query -- given the RAF is already attacking ISIL in Iraq, is the Syrian proposal to bomb ISIL in both countries, flying twice as many missions as now, or is it to fly the same number of missions but with new targets?
Extra missions, the government is going to send a few extra Tornados to Akrotiri.
@NicoHines: Momentum urging supporters to call the @labourwhips office to complain to Rosie Winterton about MPs standing up to Jeremy Corbyn.
And that's why they won't resign. They're terrified of Momentum, and deselection, particularly as the NEC is now controlled by Corbyn's mates.
Well they either pick the fight with Momentum now or give up basically and lose the Labour party.
Or they stop whining to the media, and accept the new reality. The Labour Party is still there, it's just a very different one to that which they joined.
The 'Who we will ally with" is key. There are so many different groups of various sides, many of whom have had shifting allegiances for tactical, monetary or practical reasons. If some fighters fought Assad's regime in 2013, fought alongside ISIS in battle in 2014, and are now fighting ISIS, are they potential allies or sinners beyond the pale?
To make it more complex, Assad no longer has the troops to secure the country if peace did spontaneously break out, and many of the fighting groups would not be happy with Shia Iranian troops helping. Therefore some of these armed groups might have to have a long-term role in keeping the peace.
An important question is what is motivating the fighters? In the case of some groups and individuals such as the Kurds, it is territory: "their lands". In the case of others, religion. And allegedly to other groups, money (they are dealing and fighting to keep open smuggling routes and the flow of money).
Something can be done about money. It's perfectly feasible that some groups will be able to be paid of in a similar manner to the Sons of Iraq. Whilst this is distasteful, it worked to a degree in Iraq. The only problem is that when the money ends, the violence can restart. In this case, money is a cap on a pressure vessel.
Something can be done about territory. Grant the Kurds a semi-autonomous region, and let Turkey rant (although giving the Turkmens a similar region might help). There might even be an Alawite s-a region, which might satisfy Iranian and Russian interests.
The religious motivation is much harder to solve. Aside from splitting the country into specific Sunni and Shia areas, I cannot see a way moderates can have their desires satisfied, unless some of them can also be bought off. Obviously this does not include al Nusra and ISIS, who should have no future in Syria or Iraq.
So that's my highly non-optimal and speculative solution: use money and territory to gain enough people willing to fight together to push ISIS east out of Syria. Combine it with a push from Iraq northwestwards and trap ISIS in the middle.
After that, a federal Syria of semi-autonomous regions. But then the oil question comes in ...
All easier said than done. But it *may* be a way forward.
@NicoHines: Momentum urging supporters to call the @labourwhips office to complain to Rosie Winterton about MPs standing up to Jeremy Corbyn.
And that's why they won't resign. They're terrified of Momentum, and deselection, particularly as the NEC is now controlled by Corbyn's mates.
Well they either pick the fight with Momentum now or give up basically and lose the Labour party.
Quite. They are - to quote La Pasionaria - prepared to live forever on their knees rather than die on their feet.
Were I a moderate Labour MP and deselected by this crew in favour of another Corbynista - though I would fight like hell to prevent that - I would do everything in my power to ensure that Labour lose the next election. A Labour party taken over by the SWP and Respect and others like them is no longer a Labour party worthy of support or respect. It needs to be utterly defeated.
Then maybe we could get a left of centre party worthy of the support of people like SO and others.
But if Labour MPs owe more loyalty to the brand, to the name, to the packaging than to the content - even when that content is so at odds with what Labour at its best can and ought to be - well, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
To Mr Herdson at 2.46 We can play our part in eliminating ISIS and play our part thereafter in attempting to bring stability to the area. Neither are within our sole gift and no one is saying that this is an act we are proposing to take on our own. Indeed we will be arriving very late to the show. There are no deep or convoluted issues to weigh up or be blinded by here. The post ISIS future (if there is to be one) cannot be known and to a degree at this stage should not concern us. ISIS are the immediate danger to the region and to us. The future will need to be managed thats for sure but it is a pretty feeble excuse to say the immediate danger should be ignored because we cannot be certain where defending ourselves from it would leave us.
The only logic for someone who says we should not bomb ISIS in Syria is to say that ISIS are not a danger to us (or any of our allies) and so we should not bomb them at all. You are an intelligent man Mr Herdson, you can figure out where this course would leave us with our allies.
@NicoHines: Momentum urging supporters to call the @labourwhips office to complain to Rosie Winterton about MPs standing up to Jeremy Corbyn.
And that's why they won't resign. They're terrified of Momentum, and deselection, particularly as the NEC is now controlled by Corbyn's mates.
It was of course precisely that threat rather that the ongoing takeover of Labour by the far left that led directly to the 1981 SDP breakaway. As Nick said the other day, MPs will put up with a lot policy-wise on the basis that their career is usually longer than the span of a single leader. However, if it looks as if their career is going to be ended prematurely by internal action then what do they have to lose by breaking away?
Assad's army is mostly Sunni. Syrians mostly just want to be Syrians. Balkanising the nation into warring factions is a Qatari, Saudi, Turkish wet dream; it has nothing to do with the aspirations of normal people who live there. We have no right to impose this on the country - mop up the terrorists and GTFO; leave Syrians choose whomever they want to lead their country out of this Western-wrought mess of a 'revolution'.
UPDATE UPDATE: Damning statement from Caroline Flint and Siobhan McDonagh:
“We are disappointed that the Labour Party has decided not to proceed with a full disciplinary inquiry by the NCC into Andrew Fisher, and instead issue a slap on the wrist. The Chair of this investigation has been subjected to huge pressure, and this has compromised the independence and integrity of Labour’s disciplinary process. It is unacceptable for members to support other parties, delight in Labour MPs losing their seats or to engage in cyber-bullying. Others have been excluded from our party for less than the activities of Mr Fisher. It would appear that there is one rule for members and one rule for those who work for the Party Leader.”
We've heard a lot about how ludicrous it is that we can only attack ISIS in Iraq, not Syria, but is it really? The US and France (and Russia much more so of course) are attacking them in both countries - would it not be far more sensible to simply up our commitment and resource in Iraq, and fly more sorties there, with our allies doing a bit less there and a bit more in Syria? In practical and resource terms that would surely work better than another country joining the Syria air scrum.
That's a good question. I can guess three answers:
1) Weapons. We may have weapons and capabilities that are useful for specific missions, and better than US or French capabilities (e.g. Brimstone).
2) It might depend on whether we are doing specific strikes or loitering missions (forget proper term). If a target is located and planes launched to strike them, it may be more practical to split in that manner: the mission can be tasked to whichever country is responsible for that area. If we are doing combat patrols, where planes are in the air awaiting targets of opportunity somewhere in the region, it is less practical.
3) Command and control may not be integrated enough. If a mission comes up based on UK intelligence sources, it may be faster to just pass that through to our troops than to the French or Americans, who might have their own priorities. This will especially be true for moving, fleeting targets.
To Mr Herdson at 2.46 We can play our part in eliminating ISIS and play our part thereafter in attempting to bring stability to the area. Neither are within our sole gift and no one is saying that this is an act we are proposing to take on our own. Indeed we will be arriving very late to the show. There are no deep or convoluted issues to weigh up or be blinded by here. The post ISIS future (if there is to be one) cannot be known and to a degree at this stage should not concern us. ISIS are the immediate danger to the region and to us. The future will need to be managed thats for sure but it is a pretty feeble excuse to say the immediate danger should be ignored because we cannot be certain where defending ourselves from it would leave us.
The only logic for someone who says we should not bomb ISIS in Syria is to say that ISIS are not a danger to us (or any of our allies) and so we should not bomb them at all. You are an intelligent man Mr Herdson, you can figure out where this course would leave us with our allies.
Indeed. Which is why were I to have to decide, I'd probably reluctantly back airstrikes but at the same time, I'd be keeping up maximum pressure on the government to use their diplomatic muscle to put together a sustainable peace plan for Syria. They could do a lot worse than start with what JJ suggested at 3.15pm.
Assad's army is mostly Sunni. Syrians mostly just want to be Syrians. Balkanising the nation into warring factions is a Qatari, Saudi, Turkish wet dream; it has nothing to do with the aspirations of normal people who live there. We have no right to impose this on the country - mop up the terrorists and GTFO; leave Syrians choose whomever they want to lead their country out of this Western-wrought mess of a 'revolution'.
Thanks and good night.
They've had a civil war in which the ruling regime and all the other sides have committed atrocities. It may be many years too late to move fully back to how it was before; the distrust between communities will be massive.
I like how you know the aspirations of normal people who live there (and I assume you are including refugees who wish to go back).
Using your language: going back to how it was before is a wet dream of pro-Assad fools. A federal structure might just be a way of keeping the country together, whilst allowing some self-determination for different groups.
Assad's army is mostly Sunni. Syrians mostly just want to be Syrians. Balkanising the nation into warring factions is a Qatari, Saudi, Turkish wet dream; it has nothing to do with the aspirations of normal people who live there. We have no right to impose this on the country - mop up the terrorists and GTFO; leave Syrians choose whomever they want to lead their country out of this Western-wrought mess of a 'revolution'.
Thanks and good night.
Sure, but most of the officer corps, and particularly most of the most sensitive posts, are occupied by Alawites.
If I were the Conservative leadership, I would push Shapps with the maximum noise. Two reasons: (a) on the facts it would be ethical leadership; and (b) somewhat more cyncially, it would take the pressure off Corbyn.
Absolutely. We have a duty to protect our nation from the threat of an evil terrorist cult. That is the primary focus. A failure to act will see death on our streets.
Yes, we should be involved in rebuilding, but we have to act first to in order to protect the UK from the threat that ISIS (or whatever we are supposed to call it) poses.
What's more, when it comes to the rebuilding, it's not clear that the UK should or could be particularly involved, except as part of an international aid effort if we ever get to that stage. The days when a British government could sit in London and impose solutions on countries far away are long gone.
Surely by funding and abetting an armed insurrection 'imposing a solution' on a country far away is exactly what we've done.
@NicoHines: Momentum urging supporters to call the @labourwhips office to complain to Rosie Winterton about MPs standing up to Jeremy Corbyn.
And that's why they won't resign. They're terrified of Momentum, and deselection, particularly as the NEC is now controlled by Corbyn's mates.
Well they either pick the fight with Momentum now or give up basically and lose the Labour party.
Quite. They are - to quote La Pasionaria - prepared to live forever on their knees rather than die on their feet.
Were I a moderate Labour MP and deselected by this crew in favour of another Corbynista - though I would fight like hell to prevent that - I would do everything in my power to ensure that Labour lose the next election. A Labour party taken over by the SWP and Respect and others like them is no longer a Labour party worthy of support or respect. It needs to be utterly defeated.
Then maybe we could get a left of centre party worthy of the support of people like SO and others.
But if Labour MPs owe more loyalty to the brand, to the name, to the packaging than to the content - even when that content is so at odds with what Labour at its best can and ought to be - well, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
As I think said at the time, the damage was done to Labour the minute they nominated Corbyn. They let the genie out the bottle, the mad woman out of the attic. They opened Pandoras box and now the cat is out of the bag. (have I hit the nail on the head?)
It is a sad irony but the next analogy is that Labour are thus torn into civil war and this was inevitable no matter what the result of the leadership election. The other sad mixed up irony is that its the Labour moderates who are furtively afraid to do anything unless it brings on an attack from the Jezzbolla supporters. Its the Corbyn wing making all the threats with their decapitation, sorry, deselection strategy.
That's a disturbing story. Unfortunately, politics attracts some nasty people. I do remember as a callow student being advised by one agent never to be in the same room on my own as Peter Morrison.
I'm told there's a very unpleasant sub-culture of sexual harassment in the Commons, particularly of young researchers, of either sex.
Of Corbyn, who cancelled a visit to the seat today, one source said: "I don't think Jeremy himself spends any time thinking about it, he doesn't think that electoral outcomes at this stage touch him somehow."
I do have to pick you up on the politician's fallacy in your first sentence: simply because doing nothing won't bring stability (or at least, it leaves it to chance and others), it doesn't follow that dropping bombs will either.
We're not, primarily, trying to bring stability. That would be nice, of course - not least for the local population - but the test of success isn't whether we bring stability, it's whether we degrade the capability of ISIS to do harm to us and our close allies. Given that ISIS-controlled territory in Syria is currently being used as a base for financing, inspiring, planning, arming and glorifying terrorist attacks on us, as well as for recruiting and training youngsters to carry out the attacks, it's a simple act of self-defence to disrupt them. The alternative course of action, or rather inaction, is that we simply ignore it and let them get on with it, getting ever more bold and dangerous as they do so.
If it were 'just' a local civil war I would not want to get involved. But it's not, it's a quasi-state engaged in direct attack on us.
I'd regard bringing stability and degrading the threat from ISIL as being closely akin, except that the former is probably necessary for the latter, while the reverse doesn't hold. But we should learn from the Al Qaida lesson that it is not enough to simply go after one organisation; while the ideology exists, we have to forestall others from springing up into their place which is what will happen if we focus excessively simply on ISIL.
None of which is to say that we shouldn't get involved in Syria; we should. As you say, there is a potent and current threat to Britain's national security. But we should only do so once we work out how to counter that threat in the long- as well as the short-term.
Quite.
For example, the biggest future threat to us from ISIS is that they move into the power vacuum we've created in Libya, where they're only a swim for the shores of Europe - this is already happening. It's patently absurd to just kill a lot of people and say 'job done' - it's what we did in Iraq. We know that a bigger and nastier threat is then free to emerge.
We need secure regimes in these places - hopefully to have a democratic element, certainly to allow a large degree of personal freedom, but frankly if they get nasty when opposed (as the Saudis and Kuwaitis and Turks do), that's something we have to live with.
Mr. Jim, then he needs an alternative alternate career!
Mr. F, the report on groping/sexual advances in the Commons found that most happened against men [which may explain why it got a bit less coverage than perhaps it should've].
Mr. Jim, then he needs an alternative alternate career!
Mr. F, the report on groping/sexual advances in the Commons found that most happened against men [which may explain why it got a bit less coverage than perhaps it should've].
I think there's a tendency to view M/M sexual harassment as a source of amusement, rather than anything serious.
Assad's army is mostly Sunni. Syrians mostly just want to be Syrians. Balkanising the nation into warring factions is a Qatari, Saudi, Turkish wet dream; it has nothing to do with the aspirations of normal people who live there. We have no right to impose this on the country - mop up the terrorists and GTFO; leave Syrians choose whomever they want to lead their country out of this Western-wrought mess of a 'revolution'.
Thanks and good night.
Sure, but most of the officer corps, and particularly most of the most sensitive posts, are occupied by Alawites.
That's a disturbing story. Unfortunately, politics attracts some nasty people. I do remember as a callow student being advised by one agent never to be in the same room on my own as Peter Morrison.
I'm told there's a very unpleasant sub-culture of sexual harassment in the Commons, particularly of young researchers, of either sex.
That is correct and my experience of Conservative Future from c.2000 to c.2004.
Conservative Way Forward is a particularly unpleasant part of the party. The YBF not much better. I quit it despite having sympathy with a lot of its aims.
Absolutely. We have a duty to protect our nation from the threat of an evil terrorist cult. That is the primary focus. A failure to act will see death on our streets.
Yes, we should be involved in rebuilding, but we have to act first to in order to protect the UK from the threat that ISIS (or whatever we are supposed to call it) poses.
What's more, when it comes to the rebuilding, it's not clear that the UK should or could be particularly involved, except as part of an international aid effort if we ever get to that stage. The days when a British government could sit in London and impose solutions on countries far away are long gone.
Surely by funding and abetting an armed insurrection 'imposing a solution' on a country far away is exactly what we've done.
'Imposing a solution' is far too strong; we've been complicit in facilitating chaos.
@NicoHines: Momentum urging supporters to call the @labourwhips office to complain to Rosie Winterton about MPs standing up to Jeremy Corbyn.
And that's why they won't resign. They're terrified of Momentum, and deselection, particularly as the NEC is now controlled by Corbyn's mates.
Well they either pick the fight with Momentum now or give up basically and lose the Labour party.
Or they stop whining to the media, and accept the new reality. The Labour Party is still there, it's just a very different one to that which they joined.
Yes I'm sure all this happens to a greater or lesser* degree in other parties, in all parties at other times. It's just not this public.
Or they stop whining to the media, and accept the new reality. The Labour Party is still there, it's just a very different one to that which they joined.
@NicoHines: Momentum urging supporters to call the @labourwhips office to complain to Rosie Winterton about MPs standing up to Jeremy Corbyn.
And that's why they won't resign. They're terrified of Momentum, and deselection, particularly as the NEC is now controlled by Corbyn's mates.
Well they either pick the fight with Momentum now or give up basically and lose the Labour party.
Q
As I think said at the time, the damage was done to Labour the minute they nominated Corbyn. They let the genie out the bottle, the mad woman out of the attic. They opened Pandoras box and now the cat is out of the bag.
Although I think it was very silly of anyone to nominate Corbyn if they did not support him - if they wanted to ensure as broad a debate as possible as the key element of the contest, they should have had a lower limit in the rules in the first place - I will stick up for them a bit. The hard left had had candidates in leadrship contests before, last time for instance, and the genie had not come out of the bottle. As silly as it still was, they had reason to think the genie would remain in the bottle.
As it is, the Labour party membership are apparently happy with the current position - either they have the consistency of a wet biscuit and will reverse position and abandon the dear leader at the first electoral test that is failed, or the unhappy MPs need to consider if the party is still for them. Of course they will go nowhere, tribal loyalty and all that, but if the current direction is mad, it is madnes the members of the party are happy with, and they are not obligated to stick with a party that no longer represents their views because it has gone mad. Given his rebellions and the hatred of his supporters for anything Blair like, it's a wonder Corbyn retained loyalty to the Labour brand. But given the number of Tories who seemed like they wished they had the courage to be UKIP while sill acting like they were UKIP, people can stick it out for a long time in a party whose membership no longer seems to fit them.
That's a disturbing story. Unfortunately, politics attracts some nasty people. I do remember as a callow student being advised by one agent never to be in the same room on my own as Peter Morrison.
I'm told there's a very unpleasant sub-culture of sexual harassment in the Commons, particularly of young researchers, of either sex.
That is correct and my experience of Conservative Future from c.2000 to c.2004.
Conservative Way Forward is a particularly unpleasant part of the party. The YBF not much better. I quit it despite having sympathy with a lot of its aims.
You have older people in positions of authority over teenagers and young men and women (some of them, very good looking) , who look up to them, and who can be alternatively threatened or bribed. That's a recipe for trouble, unless there are strict controls in place.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Remember this tweet every time someone posts "they can't go on like this, surely?".
Surely the point is that most of them haven't got a clue what to do about Syria but just want to oppose Corbyn.
I think that's right for at least some of the MPs in question. Jeremy Corbyn has chosen his battleground quite cleverly - most Labour party supporters oppose Britain being involved in Syria. If the shadow cabinet and MPs mutiny against him on this subject, they're not going to get much back-up from the rank and file.
Of Corbyn, who cancelled a visit to the seat today, one source said: "I don't think Jeremy himself spends any time thinking about it, he doesn't think that electoral outcomes at this stage touch him somehow."
Mr. Jim, then he needs an alternative alternate career!
Mr. F, the report on groping/sexual advances in the Commons found that most happened against men [which may explain why it got a bit less coverage than perhaps it should've].
I think there's a tendency to view M/M sexual harassment as a source of amusement, rather than anything serious.
Tom Driberg? And of course in other walks of life its the same. Frankie Howard comes to mind.
So the Archbishop isn't sure if God exists, but is certain we shouldn't get involved bombing Daesh in Syria.
Has he considered an alternative career?
Jesus cried from the cross. "Lord, why have you forsaken me?" Matthew 27:46 If He can have doubts then so can we!
So endeth the lesson.
Christ's agony on the cross wasn't that he'd ceased to believe that God existed. It would be difficult given he is supposedly God himself.
He did reveal his human side by believing that God had forsaken Him. This cry is a very interesting piece of Bible study, but very much in keeping with much Jewish tradition including the Psalms and Old Testament prophets.
That's a disturbing story. Unfortunately, politics attracts some nasty people. I do remember as a callow student being advised by one agent never to be in the same room on my own as Peter Morrison.
I'm told there's a very unpleasant sub-culture of sexual harassment in the Commons, particularly of young researchers, of either sex.
That is correct and my experience of Conservative Future from c.2000 to c.2004.
Conservative Way Forward is a particularly unpleasant part of the party. The YBF not much better. I quit it despite having sympathy with a lot of its aims.
You have older people in positions of authority over teenagers and young men and women (some of them, very good looking) , who look up to them, and who can be alternatively threatened or bribed. That's a recipe for trouble, unless there are strict controls in place.
In all walks of life there are generally older people in authority over younger people. Are there the strict controls that you suggest in place at say the BBC? Or Momentum?
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Remember this tweet every time someone posts "they can't go on like this, surely?".
Surely the point is that most of them haven't got a clue what to do about Syria but just want to oppose Corbyn.
I think that's right for at least some of the MPs in question. Jeremy Corbyn has chosen his battleground quite cleverly - most Labour party supporters oppose Britain being involved in Syria. If the shadow cabinet and MPs mutiny against him on this subject, they're not going to get much back-up from the rank and file.
That's true which is why they are in such a funk. But some of them can see that the combination of McDonnell's support for the IRA, the Mao stunt, Corbyn's ludicrous comments post the Paris atrocities and now a refusal to come up with any serious proposals to deal with IS make those of us on the outside of the W**kFest which is the current Labour Party membership view Labour as The Terrorists' Party.
And some of those realise that this may not be a winning message........
I view the Left as coming in two types: A. Basically decent, moderate, prepared to balance budgets but at a high level of tax and spend, non-PC mad, proud of their nation, internationally engaging, pragmatists, care what most people think - normal but a bit lefty; and B. Grievance mongers, dividers, terrorist sympathisers, economic fantasists, ideologues, vegan fascists, union dinosaurs, Stop The War, egg chuckers - you know the crowd
Labour's heart has always been more to B but they were governed by A types. B feels permanently aggrieved that A is more popular and the fact that Tories can win electoral majorities simply does not compute. The danger with Labour (in most voters eyes) is that B is always threatening to emerge from the shadows. You know that Labour will spend all the money but you also kind of fear they'll do something insane or spiteful to placate their B mob banging on the dungeon doors to get out.
New Labour was an anomaly. The mob somehow lost its mojo for a while. They're back now! B is in full control. And there is no mechanism for an A type to get elected leader. The PLP is mostly A but they don't select the leader. A lefty split has been in the offing since the 1980s. Which was, errr, the last time they split. B can't forever be kept in the dungeon. A can move on and create its own party. B will then fade into nothingness (a la SWP, Left Unity, etc). A 'New A' party might succeed for a while. But then the dungeon monsters who will have gravitated across - members and all - will resurface.
The underlying problem is that Socialism doesn't work. And B is simply incapable of learning it. The only thing voters can sensibly do is keep B well away from the levers of power.
And, as a righty, much as this might appeal in the long term, I don't think it is good for the right to go un-opposed, unchallenged.
It would be good for all in British politics if Labour finally died. And a decent, sensible, 'B free' new party of the left emerged.
Although not a Labour supporter, I was beginning to feel a bit sorry for all those 'moderate' Labour MPs' but now I'm just disgusted at their cowardice. They couldn't muster a backbone between them.
The only positive I can think of, is that the vast majority of the public do not follow politics in the way we anoraks do. They may catch a headline, or hear the odd interview, but most haven't really got a clue what's really going on.
I'm beginning to think a normal, boring, easy Labour hold may in fact be the most amusing result from Oldham. No sign of mass reaction one way or the other would flumox a lot of people, and break up the monotony of seemingly daily farces where a senior Labour figure says something outrageous or controversial but it provokes nothing but whines from the backbenches.
Tim Farron is on Have I Got News For You tonight, for those interested.
How will we recognise him?
A process of elimination, Tim Farron will be the person nobody recognises.
No good, there's usually a political journalist or still fairly unknown comedian (occasionally 'comedian') on the panel as well who no-one would recognise.
I view the Left as coming in two types: A. Basically decent, moderate, prepared to balance budgets but at a high level of tax and spend, non-PC mad, proud of their nation, internationally engaging, pragmatists, care what most people think - normal but a bit lefty; and B. Grievance mongers, dividers, terrorist sympathisers, economic fantasists, ideologues, vegan fascists, union dinosaurs, Stop The War, egg chuckers - you know the crowd
Labour's heart has always been more to B but they were governed by A types. B feels permanently aggrieved that A is more popular and the fact that Tories can win electoral majorities simply does not compute. The danger with Labour (in most voters eyes) is that B is always threatening to emerge from the shadows. You know that Labour will spend all the money but you also kind of fear they'll do something insane or spiteful to placate their B mob banging on the dungeon doors to get out.
New Labour was an anomaly. The mob somehow lost its mojo for a while. They're back now! B is in full control. And there is no mechanism for an A type to get elected leader. The PLP is mostly A but they don't select the leader. A lefty split has been in the offing since the 1980s. Which was, errr, the last time they split. B can't forever be kept in the dungeon. A can move on and create its own party. B will then fade into nothingness (a la SWP, Left Unity, etc). A 'New A' party might succeed for a while. But then the dungeon monsters who will have gravitated across - members and all - will resurface.
The underlying problem is that Socialism doesn't work. And B is simply incapable of learning it. The only thing voters can sensibly do is keep B well away from the levers of power.
And, as a righty, much as this might appeal in the long term, I don't think it is good for the right to go un-opposed, unchallenged.
It would be good for all in British politics if Labour finally died. And a decent, sensible, 'B free' new party of the left emerged.
I've said before, it's the antithesis of when Alexander died and there were perhaps as many as a dozen (or even more) competent, bold, ferociously intelligent men (and women) vying for power.
On the other hand, they do, slowly, seem to be edging towards a greater willingness to all but mock Corbyn publicly. But he's still there, changing what rules are left to be changed to permanently advantage the Maoists.
That's a disturbing story. Unfortunately, politics attracts some nasty people. I do remember as a callow student being advised by one agent never to be in the same room on my own as Peter Morrison.
I'm told there's a very unpleasant sub-culture of sexual harassment in the Commons, particularly of young researchers, of either sex.
That is correct and my experience of Conservative Future from c.2000 to c.2004.
Conservative Way Forward is a particularly unpleasant part of the party. The YBF not much better. I quit it despite having sympathy with a lot of its aims.
You have older people in positions of authority over teenagers and young men and women (some of them, very good looking) , who look up to them, and who can be alternatively threatened or bribed. That's a recipe for trouble, unless there are strict controls in place.
In all walks of life there are generally older people in authority over younger people. Are there the strict controls that you suggest in place at say the BBC? Or Momentum?
Oh, I certainly don't think it's restricted to a single political party.
That's a disturbing story. Unfortunately, politics attracts some nasty people. I do remember as a callow student being advised by one agent never to be in the same room on my own as Peter Morrison.
I'm told there's a very unpleasant sub-culture of sexual harassment in the Commons, particularly of young researchers, of either sex.
That is correct and my experience of Conservative Future from c.2000 to c.2004.
Conservative Way Forward is a particularly unpleasant part of the party. The YBF not much better. I quit it despite having sympathy with a lot of its aims.
You have older people in positions of authority over teenagers and young men and women (some of them, very good looking) , who look up to them, and who can be alternatively threatened or bribed. That's a recipe for trouble, unless there are strict controls in place.
That's exactly right. It's an abuse of power but, sadly, not an uncommon one.
Assad's army is mostly Sunni. Syrians mostly just want to be Syrians. Balkanising the nation into warring factions is a Qatari, Saudi, Turkish wet dream; it has nothing to do with the aspirations of normal people who live there. We have no right to impose this on the country - mop up the terrorists and GTFO; leave Syrians choose whomever they want to lead their country out of this Western-wrought mess of a 'revolution'.
Thanks and good night.
They've had a civil war in which the ruling regime and all the other sides have committed atrocities. It may be many years too late to move fully back to how it was before; the distrust between communities will be massive.
I like how you know the aspirations of normal people who live there (and I assume you are including refugees who wish to go back).
Using your language: going back to how it was before is a wet dream of pro-Assad fools.
Mr. Jim, then he needs an alternative alternate career!
Mr. F, the report on groping/sexual advances in the Commons found that most happened against men [which may explain why it got a bit less coverage than perhaps it should've].
I think there's a tendency to view M/M sexual harassment as a source of amusement, rather than anything serious.
Like any bullying or harassment it's more often than not perceived as a non-issue - or source of amusement - to those not subjected to it who are often close to those doing the harassing themselves.
Those on the receiving end can be terrified of powerful lawyers, media allies and politicians being brought down on them if they speak out.
So they stay silent, and are slowly eaten up by it all.
@NicoHines: Momentum urging supporters to call the @labourwhips office to complain to Rosie Winterton about MPs standing up to Jeremy Corbyn.
And that's why they won't resign. They're terrified of Momentum, and deselection, particularly as the NEC is now controlled by Corbyn's mates.
Well they either pick the fight with Momentum now or give up basically and lose the Labour party.
Quite. They are - to quote La Pasionaria - prepared to live forever on their knees rather than die on their feet.
Were I a moderate Labour MP and deselected by this crew in favour of another Corbynista - though I would fight like hell to prevent that - I would do everything in my power to ensure that Labour lose the next election. A Labour party taken over by the SWP and Respect and others like them is no longer a Labour party worthy of support or respect. It needs to be utterly defeated.
Then maybe we could get a left of centre party worthy of the support of people like SO and others.
But if Labour MPs owe more loyalty to the brand, to the name, to the packaging than to the content - even when that content is so at odds with what Labour at its best can and ought to be - well, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
As I think said at the time, the damage was done to Labour the minute they nominated Corbyn. They let the genie out the bottle, the mad woman out of the attic. They opened Pandoras box and now the cat is out of the bag. (have I hit the nail on the head?)
It is a sad irony but the next analogy is that Labour are thus torn into civil war and this was inevitable no matter what the result of the leadership election. The other sad mixed up irony is that its the Labour moderates who are furtively afraid to do anything unless it brings on an attack from the Jezzbolla supporters. Its the Corbyn wing making all the threats with their decapitation, sorry, deselection strategy.
Absolutely. We have a duty to protect our nation from the threat of an evil terrorist cult. That is the primary focus. A failure to act will see death on our streets.
Yes, we should be involved in rebuilding, but we have to act first to in order to protect the UK from the threat that ISIS (or whatever we are supposed to call it) poses.
What's more, when it comes to the rebuilding, it's not clear that the UK should or could be particularly involved, except as part of an international aid effort if we ever get to that stage. The days when a British government could sit in London and impose solutions on countries far away are long gone.
Surely by funding and abetting an armed insurrection 'imposing a solution' on a country far away is exactly what we've done.
'Imposing a solution' is far too strong; we've been complicit in facilitating chaos.
Yes. It would seem Richard agrees with causing problems but disagrees with having to find solutions. Could be why he's such a big Cameron fan.
Assad's army is mostly Sunni. Syrians mostly just want to be Syrians. Balkanising the nation into warring factions is a Qatari, Saudi, Turkish wet dream; it has nothing to do with the aspirations of normal people who live there. We have no right to impose this on the country - mop up the terrorists and GTFO; leave Syrians choose whomever they want to lead their country out of this Western-wrought mess of a 'revolution'.
Thanks and good night.
Sure, but most of the officer corps, and particularly most of the most sensitive posts, are occupied by Alawites.
Which would surely do very little good to him if the rank and file decided to desert. Which they haven't.
The core of the FSA as it was originally instituted was formed from thousands (some say ten thousand) of Syrian Army defectors, including some of high ranks. This is one reason Assad's found the war so hard to prosecute.
Comments
http://order-order.com/2015/11/27/andrew-fisher-suspension-lifted/
If this doesn't lead to the sacking of Grant Shapps, then nothing will
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/27/conservative-party-chiefs-bullying-youth-wing-warsi-grant-shapps-letter
and the heartbreaking details
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/27/elliott-johnson-young-tory-destroyed-by-party-he-loved-mark-clarke?CMP=share_btn_tw
To make it more complex, Assad no longer has the troops to secure the country if peace did spontaneously break out, and many of the fighting groups would not be happy with Shia Iranian troops helping. Therefore some of these armed groups might have to have a long-term role in keeping the peace.
An important question is what is motivating the fighters? In the case of some groups and individuals such as the Kurds, it is territory: "their lands". In the case of others, religion. And allegedly to other groups, money (they are dealing and fighting to keep open smuggling routes and the flow of money).
Something can be done about money. It's perfectly feasible that some groups will be able to be paid of in a similar manner to the Sons of Iraq. Whilst this is distasteful, it worked to a degree in Iraq. The only problem is that when the money ends, the violence can restart. In this case, money is a cap on a pressure vessel.
Something can be done about territory. Grant the Kurds a semi-autonomous region, and let Turkey rant (although giving the Turkmens a similar region might help). There might even be an Alawite s-a region, which might satisfy Iranian and Russian interests.
The religious motivation is much harder to solve. Aside from splitting the country into specific Sunni and Shia areas, I cannot see a way moderates can have their desires satisfied, unless some of them can also be bought off. Obviously this does not include al Nusra and ISIS, who should have no future in Syria or Iraq.
So that's my highly non-optimal and speculative solution: use money and territory to gain enough people willing to fight together to push ISIS east out of Syria. Combine it with a push from Iraq northwestwards and trap ISIS in the middle.
After that, a federal Syria of semi-autonomous regions. But then the oil question comes in ...
All easier said than done. But it *may* be a way forward.
Were I a moderate Labour MP and deselected by this crew in favour of another Corbynista - though I would fight like hell to prevent that - I would do everything in my power to ensure that Labour lose the next election. A Labour party taken over by the SWP and Respect and others like them is no longer a Labour party worthy of support or respect. It needs to be utterly defeated.
Then maybe we could get a left of centre party worthy of the support of people like SO and others.
But if Labour MPs owe more loyalty to the brand, to the name, to the packaging than to the content - even when that content is so at odds with what Labour at its best can and ought to be - well, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
We can play our part in eliminating ISIS and play our part thereafter in attempting to bring stability to the area.
Neither are within our sole gift and no one is saying that this is an act we are proposing to take on our own. Indeed we will be arriving very late to the show.
There are no deep or convoluted issues to weigh up or be blinded by here.
The post ISIS future (if there is to be one) cannot be known and to a degree at this stage should not concern us. ISIS are the immediate danger to the region and to us. The future will need to be managed thats for sure but it is a pretty feeble excuse to say the immediate danger should be ignored because we cannot be certain where defending ourselves from it would leave us.
The only logic for someone who says we should not bomb ISIS in Syria is to say that ISIS are not a danger to us (or any of our allies) and so we should not bomb them at all. You are an intelligent man Mr Herdson, you can figure out where this course would leave us with our allies.
So the Archbishop isn't sure if God exists, but is certain we shouldn't get involved bombing Daesh in Syria.
Has he considered an alternative career?
Thanks and good night.
UPDATE: Damning statement from Caroline Flint and Siobhan McDonagh:
“We are disappointed that the Labour Party has decided not to proceed with a full disciplinary inquiry by the NCC into Andrew Fisher, and instead issue a slap on the wrist. The Chair of this investigation has been subjected to huge pressure, and this has compromised the independence and integrity of Labour’s disciplinary process. It is unacceptable for members to support other parties, delight in Labour MPs losing their seats or to engage in cyber-bullying. Others have been excluded from our party for less than the activities of Mr Fisher. It would appear that there is one rule for members and one rule for those who work for the Party Leader.”
FIGHT FIGHT
1) Weapons. We may have weapons and capabilities that are useful for specific missions, and better than US or French capabilities (e.g. Brimstone).
2) It might depend on whether we are doing specific strikes or loitering missions (forget proper term). If a target is located and planes launched to strike them, it may be more practical to split in that manner: the mission can be tasked to whichever country is responsible for that area. If we are doing combat patrols, where planes are in the air awaiting targets of opportunity somewhere in the region, it is less practical.
3) Command and control may not be integrated enough. If a mission comes up based on UK intelligence sources, it may be faster to just pass that through to our troops than to the French or Americans, who might have their own priorities. This will especially be true for moving, fleeting targets.
I like how you know the aspirations of normal people who live there (and I assume you are including refugees who wish to go back).
Using your language: going back to how it was before is a wet dream of pro-Assad fools. A federal structure might just be a way of keeping the country together, whilst allowing some self-determination for different groups.
https://medium.com/@Daniel_Sugarman/labour-will-win-oldham-but-it-is-in-self-destruct-mode-4a681767f33e#.os4bqpw5y
Or maybe they will:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/11/could-labour-lose-oldham-election
http://carnegie-mec.org/2015/09/30/assad-s-officer-ghetto-why-syrian-army-remains-loyal/iigr
(have I hit the nail on the head?)
It is a sad irony but the next analogy is that Labour are thus torn into civil war and this was inevitable no matter what the result of the leadership election.
The other sad mixed up irony is that its the Labour moderates who are furtively afraid to do anything unless it brings on an attack from the Jezzbolla supporters. Its the Corbyn wing making all the threats with their decapitation, sorry, deselection strategy.
I'm told there's a very unpleasant sub-culture of sexual harassment in the Commons, particularly of young researchers, of either sex.
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
For example, the biggest future threat to us from ISIS is that they move into the power vacuum we've created in Libya, where they're only a swim for the shores of Europe - this is already happening. It's patently absurd to just kill a lot of people and say 'job done' - it's what we did in Iraq. We know that a bigger and nastier threat is then free to emerge.
We need secure regimes in these places - hopefully to have a democratic element, certainly to allow a large degree of personal freedom, but frankly if they get nasty when opposed (as the Saudis and Kuwaitis and Turks do), that's something we have to live with.
Mr. F, the report on groping/sexual advances in the Commons found that most happened against men [which may explain why it got a bit less coverage than perhaps it should've].
At this rate, the Ed Stone may not even feature in the top 10 list of Labour's biggest cock-ups.
Conservative Way Forward is a particularly unpleasant part of the party. The YBF not much better. I quit it despite having sympathy with a lot of its aims.
If He can have doubts then so can we!
So endeth the lesson.
Check these outtakes from our UK Champs promo shoot. Can't get it right every time eh @ColinMurray? #thewhirlwind
https://t.co/PMFyqzDcjC
*ok, lesser.
As it is, the Labour party membership are apparently happy with the current position - either they have the consistency of a wet biscuit and will reverse position and abandon the dear leader at the first electoral test that is failed, or the unhappy MPs need to consider if the party is still for them. Of course they will go nowhere, tribal loyalty and all that, but if the current direction is mad, it is madnes the members of the party are happy with, and they are not obligated to stick with a party that no longer represents their views because it has gone mad. Given his rebellions and the hatred of his supporters for anything Blair like, it's a wonder Corbyn retained loyalty to the Labour brand. But given the number of Tories who seemed like they wished they had the courage to be UKIP while sill acting like they were UKIP, people can stick it out for a long time in a party whose membership no longer seems to fit them.
Unless they contrive to lose somehow, he's probably right.
Or Momentum?
Besides, there's a difference between doubting the existence of a deity, and doubting whether the deity has forsaken you or not.
And some of those realise that this may not be a winning message........
A. Basically decent, moderate, prepared to balance budgets but at a high level of tax and spend, non-PC mad, proud of their nation, internationally engaging, pragmatists, care what most people think - normal but a bit lefty; and
B. Grievance mongers, dividers, terrorist sympathisers, economic fantasists, ideologues, vegan fascists, union dinosaurs, Stop The War, egg chuckers - you know the crowd
Labour's heart has always been more to B but they were governed by A types. B feels permanently aggrieved that A is more popular and the fact that Tories can win electoral majorities simply does not compute. The danger with Labour (in most voters eyes) is that B is always threatening to emerge from the shadows. You know that Labour will spend all the money but you also kind of fear they'll do something insane or spiteful to placate their B mob banging on the dungeon doors to get out.
New Labour was an anomaly. The mob somehow lost its mojo for a while. They're back now! B is in full control. And there is no mechanism for an A type to get elected leader. The PLP is mostly A but they don't select the leader. A lefty split has been in the offing since the 1980s. Which was, errr, the last time they split. B can't forever be kept in the dungeon. A can move on and create its own party. B will then fade into nothingness (a la SWP, Left Unity, etc). A 'New A' party might succeed for a while. But then the dungeon monsters who will have gravitated across - members and all - will resurface.
The underlying problem is that Socialism doesn't work. And B is simply incapable of learning it. The only thing voters can sensibly do is keep B well away from the levers of power.
And, as a righty, much as this might appeal in the long term, I don't think it is good for the right to go un-opposed, unchallenged.
It would be good for all in British politics if Labour finally died. And a decent, sensible, 'B free' new party of the left emerged.
The only positive I can think of, is that the vast majority of the public do not follow politics in the way we anoraks do. They may catch a headline, or hear the odd interview, but most haven't really got a clue what's really going on.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3336336/Never-mind-bombing-ISIS-Labour-s-vegan-shadow-environment-secretary-tackling-big-issues-day-call-female-fisherman.html
I've said before, it's the antithesis of when Alexander died and there were perhaps as many as a dozen (or even more) competent, bold, ferociously intelligent men (and women) vying for power.
On the other hand, they do, slowly, seem to be edging towards a greater willingness to all but mock Corbyn publicly. But he's still there, changing what rules are left to be changed to permanently advantage the Maoists.
Unbelievable really.
The enormo-haddock wish it to be known that they refer to fishermen as hors d'oeuvres.
Those on the receiving end can be terrified of powerful lawyers, media allies and politicians being brought down on them if they speak out.
So they stay silent, and are slowly eaten up by it all.