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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just over 13 months to go new Scottish Indy referendum poll finds NO still has comfortable lead
Scottish #IndyRef poll by Panelbase for S Times has YES 37%+1 NO 46%+2 with comparisons on May.
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While I expect the same outcome, I don't think it was a great masterplan. Don't forget how keen the SNP was to have DevoMax on the ballot and how frustrated they were that the government wouldn't spell out what they meant by a further transfer of power following a vote to stay in.
My loyalties are torn between Tom Daley (because he's British) and the Mexican Iván García (because he's incredibly beautiful (especially in his work clothes, obviously)). Also in the final are Oleksandr Bondar from Ukraine, who was born on the same day as Ivan Garcia, and of course PB's very own Andrea Chiarabini from Italy, who has the same first name and therefore must be the same person. Ideally, the Chinese diver Qiu Bo will come 4th, because the Chinese hate losing.
YES are (Orange Order and Rangers supporters excluded) far more passionate than NO.
NO needs the don't knows to settle for status quo and if 37% vote YES, which I think is likely, then they need 37% of the 63% left to vote NO.
Promises of jam tomorrow will be played back and remind people what Tories said in 79, and Lamont assuming she loses her where's wally tag by then will be reminded of her voting against devolution. Powder is dry but ready to go, and damning evidence.
Many are inclined to think it cannot be any worse than the current Tory Government.
Same thing happened in 2011, a late swing when people said it cannot be worse than it was.
Fear and flag waving has a limit, and stories have got silly, so I suspect NO will pull perhaps 35% of the population and so issue is can YES get their supporters out on a poll of 70% and win.
The devolution poll had less voters remember; so I think even 75% is pushing it.
Having a go at a Scotsman waving a saltire at Wimbledon seems to be the best the MSM can do. Pathetic in my view. I hope he hands over 3 months out to Sturgeon and then the female vote rockets up and gets YES over the line.
In Sunday Times but will not be lead story on the Beeb I suspect!
Leaders well/badly:
DC: -16(-18)
EdM:-37 (-35)
NC:-49 (-51)
Coalition managing the economy: -20 (-26)
In your opinion how good or bad is the state of
Britain's economy at the moment?
Good: 11(8)
Bad: 57 (64)
How do you think the financial situation of your
household will change over the next 12
months?
Better: 15 (12)
Same: 39 (35)
Worse: 42(45)
" Senior Labour MPs complain that their party is “in the grip of the intellectuals” who do not know how to turn highfaluting ideas into practical policies. “Ed has some interesting intellectual thoughts, but we need people who translate that into meaningful policy. The political class needs to understand what the aspirations of ordinary people are,” said one.
Others expressed frustration at the way Miliband runs his office. “His office is often just rude,” said one MP. “He hasn’t got a team around him. Where is the Alastair Campbell? With Gordon Brown, we had people in who were the intermediaries with the rest of the world, who had this hinterland with the party. Ed has a lot of young men. All the women seem to be secretaries. Ed’s personal weakness is he only tends to appoint people he knows and trusts. With Blair you used to get a call quite often from his office, but with Ed you never hear from anyone.”
To add to Miliband’s woes, without guaranteed union backing Labour could find itself in deeper financial trouble than usual. The party’s governing body, the national executive committee, has privately raised fears it will not have enough money to fund a general election — or next year’s European and local elections. Spooked by the prospect of falling revenue from the unions, Labour’s creditors could start to call in loans. To try to plug the hole, Labour HQ has drafted in a professional fundraising company which is hitting the phones to members, attempting to drum up a few extra quid.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1293141.ece
Thinking about how the government is cutting
public spending, do you think the government
should cut spending less, cut spending more,
or are they getting the balance about right?
More: 15(11)
Less: 47(49)
Right: 25(23)
DK: 14(16(
Who would you trust more to run the economy?
DC&GO: 39(36)
EdM&EdB 26(26)
Not sure: 35 (38)
Do you think George Osborne is doing a good
job or a bad job as Chancellor of the
Exchequer?
Good:25(25)
Bad:45(52)
Not sure:30 (23)
Do you think Ed Balls is doing a good job or a
bad job as Shadow Chancellor?
Good: 18 (Lab: 45)
Bad: 40 (Lab 13)
Not sure: 42 (Lab:42)
Do you think Alistair Darling did a good job or a
bad job when he was Chancellor of the
Exchequer from 2007-2010?
Good: 22
Bad: 41
DK: 36
Do you think George Osborne should remain as
Chancellor of the Exchequer, or do you think
David Cameron should replace him with a new
Chancellor?
Remain: 30 (17)
Replace: 42(51)
DK: 29(32)
Which of these would make the better
Chancellor of the Exchequer?
GO: 35(32)
EdB: 27(23)
DK: 38(45)
Which of these would make the better Shadow
Chancellor?
EdB; 18 (Lab:36)
A.Darling: 32; (Lab:29)
DK: 50; (Lab:35)
Do you think the economy would have
performed better or worse over the past three
years had Labour won the last election?
Better: 32
Worse: 43
DK:25
The Office of National Statistics has announced
that Britain's economy grew by 0.6% in the
second quarter of 2013, after growing by 0.3%
in the first three months of this year.
Do you think Britain's economy is currently...?
On the mend, and likely to continue growing in the
months ahead: 38
Bumping along the bottom, and NOT likely to grow
in the months ahead:49
Not sure: 13
How likely, if at all, do you think it is that Britain
will go back into recession during the next 12
months?
Likely: 35
Not Likely:50
DK:15
"Ed has a lot of young men. All the women seem to be secretaries"
How very sexist of Labour. Does Harriet know?
He complained of the same symptoms as mentioned by Mrs T but was such an appalling hypochondriac that TBH we didn't take much notice until he fell off a chair in a diabetic coma. Oops.
"...Then a dramatic skid to a halt and an about-turn. “Wonga is actually a very professionally managed company,” Welby informed an audience, which had to bite its lip to stop itself sniggering, “and Errol Damelin, the chief executive, is a very clever man [who] runs it extremely well.” Heaven forfend anyone should have inferred, from his previous statements, that Wonga was up to anything remotely dodgy.
We have to turn to the Gospels for a biblical parallel, I think. Matthew, Mark, Luke and John all record the moment when Jesus, full of fury, overturned the tables of the moneylenders in the temple. And then, a little later, invited them back inside for a nice cup of tea, having been told that they built the temple in the first place. Poor Welby. He has been caught doing something that Church of England prelates have practised over the years: inhabiting two very different worlds simultaneously.
The first is the fantasy island of the modern liberal left, where one lives a pristine life free from the untrammelled evils of capitalism because, maaaan, we’re not part of that corrupt system. And the second world, which is the real one, the one the rest of us inhabit, in which life is a procession of difficult compromises, and none of us is perfect, but we do the best we can... And he is a little like The Guardian newspaper, which also rails against Wonga and its invidious consequences for the working class. Guess which newspaper named Wonga digital entrepreneur of the year in 2011? http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/rodliddle/article1293196.ece
As well as the news about the economy, there
have recently been a number of “good news”
stories for Britain – the birth of the royal baby,
victories at Wimbledon, the Tour de France, in
rugby and cricket. Do you personally feel more
optimistic or more pessimistic than you did a
few months ago about Britain’s future?
I am more optimistic than I was about Britain's
future: 35
More pessimistic: 3
No change - I was, and remain, optimistic: 32
No change - I was, and remain pessimistic:19
DK: 11
"Alex Salmond has been warned about making exaggerated claims about the potential benefits of North Sea oil to an independent Scotland after asserting that future reserves are worth £300,000 a head for every Scot."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/23/alex-salmond-north-sea-oil
I love it.
dk
Additionally the last ARSE 2015 GE projection before the summer recess will be published exclusively on PB tomorrow morning at 9.00am.
You lucky, lucky people.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/pbl58em928/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260713.pdf
Do you think the economy would have performed better or worse over the past three years had Labour won the last election?
Better: 32
Worse: 43
Ed Miliband is damaging Labour's election chances by surrounding himself with too many people who were close to Gordon Brown'
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28
Which of these statements comes closer to your view:
‘Ed Balls’ criticisms of the present government’s economic policies have proved to be correct; as shadow chancellor he strengthens Labour’s credibility : 27
Ed Balls was one of the people who messed up Britain's economy before 2010, as shadow chancellor he weakens Labour's credibility : 43
I'd say the economic argument is being won by the coalition....
They have donated an astonishing total of £120MILLION in the past 12 years.
Four out of five Labour MPs have been bankrolled by unions — including almost 100 who have received five figure sums.
Labour leader Ed Miliband has taken donations worth almost £170,000.
More than £118,000 of that is from Unite, the union run by “Red Len” McCluskey which is accused of vote-rigging.
Mr Miliband’s policy chief Jon Cruddas has had even more. He has taken £210,000 — including £157,000 from Unite or the unions which merged to form it.
We studied union handouts to Labour dating back to 2001 when online Electoral Commission records started.
In that time the party has had 7,354 union donations worth more than £120million. They include cash and perks like advertising, travel or use of buildings.
Since Mr Miliband became Labour leader in 2010 the unions have stumped up £23.6million — almost half the party’s £51.8million income.
But most Labour MPs have seen union support poured into their constituency parties.
Between them, 211 current MPs’ local parties have had donations worth £2.4million.
That’s an average of more than £11,000 each from the 15 unions officially affiliated to Labour.
(see interesting photo)
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5038013/Labour-union-donations-revealed.html#ixzz2aJt56ZAw
Darling: -3
Balls: -7
Cooper: -2
Umunna: -4
Murphy: -6
Among 2010 Lib Dems Balls has the biggest anti vote at -10
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28 "
Ed Miliband will have to sack Ed Miliband if he wants to be free of his Brownian albatross.
Oh, wait...
I'm still laughing at Mr Burnham's desperate tweets about the NHS - he's totally lost it. Perhaps he's outsourced them to Dr Eoin...
Call for illegal data clients to be probed like newspapers"
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5037488/Tory-Rob-Wilson-says-that-MPS-should-name-hacking-clients.html#ixzz2aJzI7HVI
Funny how the Guardian and BBC have been strangely quiet on this one.....
Which two or three, if any, of the following people do you think has improved the status of the Royal family? (Please tick up to three options)
William: 77
Kate: 64
Harry: 47
George: 13
Anne: 11
Charles: 10
Camilla: 3
The Sun really is going for it. The way they've presented those figures is very effective - even if its all over 12yrs. Still, Labour were banging on about Ashcrofts Millions years after he'd stopped donating much if anything at all.
All fair in love and war as they say.
But Miliband doesn't need to persuade Tory voters or the LibDem rump that the government is doing badly in order to take over in Number 10. He needs to retain 35%ish of the vote and avoid the Tories soaring past to 38-40%. So far, there isn't much sign of that being difficult - the Labour vote doesn't look frothy or variable at all (ironically, because Labour hasn't attracted the frothy "down with whoever's in power" vote which does normally swing back), and the Tories are stuck in the low 30s.
I am a committed supporter of Scots independence because I believe in democracy: The fact that the left perpetuate discrimination against English voters (through corrupt boundaries) is of no benefit to anyone. And be sure; if Scotland votes "No" then demographics will ensure the eventual transformation of the UK into Englandshire. It is but a shame that the "Yes" campaign have the moronic-pair, Salmond and Sturgeon, floundering about trying to bait their opponents....
"An orgy of repetitive posts cherry-picking ...."
Not my type of orgy I must say Nick, but hey ho ....
Which of these would make the better Chancellor of the Exchequer?
Osborne: 35 (+3)
Balls: 27 (+4)
So Osborne's 9 point lead "falls" to 8?
Or this one:
Which of these would make the better Shadow Chancellor?
Balls: 18
Darling: 30
Let's hope they make "interesting" viewing.
I was pleased to note that JohnO's little local erection had been so successful !!
Best Chancellor among VI:
Osborne: 83
Balls: 65
Doing a good job (net) among VI:
Osborne: +60
Balls: +32
13 selected
17 defeated
10 to go (+ Falkirk suspended)
"David Cameron has his "we're all in this together" trope. Ed Miliband has his "One Nation" slogan. Yet neither can make a good claim to be a national leader when each really speaks for only one half of the country. There could be a great prize awaiting whoever is first to find a way of making it whole again."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/28/labour-tories-north-south-divide?guni=Keyword:news-grid aux-1 Pixies:Pixies:Position6
F minus for reading comprehension. Again.
"LOL .... Well quite.
I was pleased to note that JohnO's little local erection had been so successful !!"
..................................................................
Deary me and as some PBers have said before but I clearly don't know my R-se from my L-bow
The battle for the Midlands will be fascinating - how the Big Two seek to win back ground lost in the N&S looks like a very long slog.
Perhaps one of PB's data experts could list the target seats for each party that fall into Mids, N and S. The coastal towns are clearly the battle ground for Kippers given the results at LE2013 - they could be a real joker in the pack next time - though they're losing ground consistently now.
I am off for a swim before it gets too hot.
If there's another Coalition then the LibDems will not countenance a reduction in powers. Neither will Labour - Electoral suicide in Scotland. So that leaves a majority Conservative government who have shown no willingness to deconstruct the devolution settlement - indeed such a change in policy would much more likely to eventually lead to an independent Scotland.
I see a commons committee has deemed immigration stats not fit for purpose, reminds me of the old magazine column 'Well Knock Me Down" with A.Feather
Originally I was agreeing with Surbiton and simply extending his point by saying that DevoMax would have given extra powers but removed the responsibility when using them because there was still someone to blame if it all went wrong. Now I see that you don't buy the Surbiton thesis; therefore mine fell with it.
Without jumping down my throat please, Cameron has specifically said that more powers would be devolved in the event of NO. You already had mild tax varying powers (although they weren't renewed iirc?) so that principle is established. Hard not to see an incoming Lab govt granting more powers too in an effort to win back votes.
So where do you get your "reduce powers" from? Powers like devolution are almost impossible to pull back even with the political will to do so. I really can't see that being done or even anyone suggesting it. Do you have any quotes to support it or is it just a gut instinct?
Now that the FT has signed up, Ipso is the clear frontrunner: and the next few weeks will be decisive for its future"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/jul/28/press-regulation-real-august?CMP=twt_fd
Cheshire County Council have been approached by the EU after it became clear that there were severe infractions of the milk quotas in the north west of England and a pilot scheme of mobile shame a surplus dairy skimmer might bear fruit.
Developing non story ?? ....
Labour have yet to realise that after the reasonable performance in government by SNP, people realise how bad Labour were and the fact that they are now espousing Tory policies will not help them.
It is like the Devolution campaign all over again. The Tories were the only party who said voting Yes to Holyrood would effectively see the beginning of the end of the UK. Barely 15 years later, the only things which Scotland shares with the rest of the UK are the Monarchy, the armed forces and taxation including welfare (and even that will change in 2015). Virtually every other aspect of the daily lives of Scots is controlled by the Salmond Government in Edinburgh, not the Cameron government in Westminster.
The vote will largely depend on who actually goes out to vote. We will have Eck applauding the success of Robert the Bruce in June. We will then have Eck cheering on a Scottish team opposing an English team in Glasgow at the Commonwealth Games. People are jokingly suggesting the Mel Gibson film of Braveheart will be shown on STV on the evening of 17th September 2014. It just needs the BBC or another London broadcaster to talk about the English world cup team of 1966 or miscall a British item as English in the days before the vote and more people will pile into the Yes camp on the day.
It will all be about emotional ties and in that respect, Eck currently holds all the cards. Add to that, if as I have suggested for more than a year, David Cameron by then looks like he will be heading back to Downing Street the following year, Salmond will play the anti-Tory card and that is one the Scottish Labour Party has little or no prospect of negating.
Some of us have not been greatly impressed by much of the Better Together campaign and frankly the intervention of Gordon Brown will now only see more votes pile into the Yes campaign. Even Scots now realise in increasing numbers that the man was responsible for the hardship most of us have faced in the past 3 years. It wouldn't make them vote Tory but it may make them vote Yes.
The point that you were trying to divert discussion away from bad numbers (from You Gov). for Labour remains. Its what you do.
The article seemed to suggest to me that there was total complicity in the decision to get Megrahi back to Libya, Scotland wanted rid and the Cancer thing was a Godsend.
Expediency posing as compassion.
My interpretation of the article seems to suggest that, your reading of it does not.
Another of my novels went to the publishers editor yesterday, I won't bother sending you a copy, it has some BIG words in it.
When Farage can convincingly describe the vans as 'unpleasant and odd', it ought to be clear he has missed the target.
He could have repeated that EU immigration is mostly legal...
Jason Cowan @jason_manc
Amusing how obsessed they are with Crosby RT @OliverJCarroll: Sadiq Khan on #marr almost called unite leader Len Crosby. Awks
Earlier in the year I had a great few days in Edinburgh where I gave a talk at the Scottish Parliament. I came away believing that if I had a vote it would be for YES.
The country is so different with a separate legal system, cultural heritage and even its own banknotes.
ArchbishopWelby @UpikTipsGuest
Improve your chances of getting to heaven by ensuring that your DVD collection contains no more than 3% pornography
FPT
Just to make it clear I have made no allegations about Philip Morris or any other companies and individuals.I have just pointed out that the system of the same person acting as media adviser for the party in government and lobbyist for private clients is prone to abuse.
suggest Panelbase is a bit of the "Odd Man Out" on the independence question
But that doesn't dismiss most of what's been said.
"... If Team Miliband is not careful, Owen Jones may become the established face of their cause, thus leaving the country to conclude that everyone on the Left has a mental age of 14.
It is a real problem for Labour that its conversion to free-market economics and the politics of social aspiration did not work out as planned. Having been embraced in bad faith – at least by Gordon Brown, through whose agency it had to be administered – it led the party and the country into a disastrous trap. The market economy, so far as Mr Brown was concerned, was good for one thing: to produce wealth that could be taxed. It was tax revenue – which would be used to cure poverty and deliver social equality – that was the real objective.
But it turned out that booming markets produced growing differentials of wealth: relative poverty could not be “cured” by redistribution, no matter how much government spent. Trying harder and harder to make people “not poor” while society generally got richer, bankrupted the government. And it became apparent that a new sort of poverty was being created: one that was bred by dependence on government spending. This welfare underclass had far more complex problems than the old unemployed working class: hopelessness and myriad social deprivations could not be cured by temporary financial help.
However the official Left doctrine of redistribution refused to take this into account for the longest time... I was interviewed a while ago by an opinion sampling consultant employed by a famous anti-poverty campaigning foundation. The research was designed to find out why the foundation’s reports were no longer getting the media coverage that they had in previous decades...
We were largely ignoring their reports, as was most of the media, because they seemed to be based on out-of-date assumptions. The discussion about poverty and social deprivation has moved on: it is no longer seen as a simple equation of callous wealthy capitalists conspiring to keep a fixed proportion of the population down and out. In fact, it benefits the market economy to have as many prosperous people with money to spend as possible." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10205797/For-Ed-Miliband-and-the-Labour-Party-its-back-to-1982-all-over-again.html
Scotland does not own it's own bank-notes: Scottish banks do. So they are largely owned by an Ozzie-bank and the English tax-payer.
If George Osborne does not sell-off Wee-Eck's lauded HBoS and RBoS before independence most of that money in the BoE (that off-sets those Mickey-Mouse notes) will belong to Westminster and the English electorate. That is an interesting thought, no...?