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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just over 13 months to go new Scottish Indy referendum

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  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,511
    SMukesh said:

    @Tim
    I am not sure about tourist bonds but I hope they have the facility to reimburse the bond money quickly when the passenger returns.Any controversy around that will stop the tourist in-flow completely from those parts.

    Should be fine, large government bureaucracies are renowned for their efficiency, especially when they're dealing with non-voters...
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    tim said:

    We can do whatever we want.Stop people emigrating, encourage more to emigrate, get out of the single market, whatever
    But within parameters set by 13 years of Labour misrule, and without the information to base his policy on, Dave can really do sod all but posture (and keep some students out).

    There fixed it for you.

    Actually I agree with many of the things you say. The student thing is stupid, they are (mostly) the sort of people we should be encouraging, although there is probably a subset of people who are not really students and using it to get round immigration controls. And shooting your mouth off to give soundbites is no way to make policy. (Although all politicians are prone to that, and while I hoped Dave would be better, I'm not going to vote against him because of it).

    The immigration system is in complete chaos, which seems to have been a deliberate policy of the last Government - and, yes, the incompetence may even date to the the last Tory government (which even I voted against in 1997). There are ways of sorting it out, policies along the lines I have been suggesting may even be some of them. But the Government needed to start a whole root and branch review of the immigration and benefits systems on its first day in office in 2010 if it was going to have a chance. Alas, it has not been fleet-footed, radical, or rational enough.

    "It has not been fleet-footed enough". I think the coalition has acted with impressive speed on many fronts. You under-estimate the contortions to get things done in this country - elf & safety, equalities reviews, consultations, legal challenges by self-interested parties, etc.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2013
    On topic. If sadly the Scots vote no, then where will that leave the likely result at the following GE? Will SLAB be able to keep their large number of Scottish MPs or will their vote at the GE drop to something just above the level they achieved in 2011 MSP vote of circa 31%? If it did we could see the SNP pick up 10+ MPs from SLAB.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,211
    SMukesh said:

    @JosiasJessop

    I answered your question so why don`t you answer mine first?

    Do you think there is a conflict of interest issue with Crosby working for Cameron and simultaneously working for private clients who are affected by government policies?As I already pointed out,former Tory MPs seem to think there is a problem here but I would be interested in your views on this subject.

    Sadly, you didn't answer my questions. But never mind. As I suspected, your tin-foil hat is firmly tuned to Conservatives only.

    There is the potential for conflicts of interest, but you have no proof that there has been one, just insinuation and smears.

    As for 'private clients who are affected by government policies' : I'd like to see an area of private or public life that is not affected by government policies. it's a nonsense statement.

    Potential conflicts of interest abound everywhere, especially - and whisper this quietly - in the way that trade unions have the ear of, and fund, many Labour MPs. Or the way the Labour government gave union top brass Number Ten passes.

    What you are asking for is a fishing expedition- release information about a private company so you can see what else you can smear them with. Good luck with that.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714

    On topic. If sadly the Scots vote no, then where will that leave the likely result at the following GE? Will SLAB be able to keep their large number of Scottish MPs or will their vote at the GE drop to something just above the level they achieved in 2011 MSP vote of circa 31%? If it did we could see the SNP pick up 10+ MPs from SLAB.

    After 2011, never say never (I really didn't expect SLAB to lose some Holyrood constituencies they actually lost in the end)

    but a situation like
    Labour -7 to 35%
    SNP + 10 to 30%

    On uniform swing SLAB could potentially lose just 3 seats overall.

    Labour leads over SNP in 2010 GE:


    Ochil and Perthshire South 10.28
    Falkirk 15.44
    Dundee West 19.61
    Ayrshire North and Arran 21.45
    Aberdeen North 22.18
    Livingston 22.53
    Edinburgh East 23.03
    Linlithgow and Falkirk East 24.4
    Stirling 24.51
    Aberdeen South 24.67
    Midlothian 26.37
    Kilmarnock and Loudoun 26.59
    Edinburgh South 27.08
    Edinburgh North and Leith 27.81
    East Kilbride. Strathaven and 28.47
    East Lothian 28.55
    Ayrshire Central 28.66
    Lanark and Hamilton East 28.95
    Ayr. Carrick and Cumnock 29.11
    Edinburgh South West 30.67
    Glasgow South 31.57
    Glasgow North 32.59
    Cumbernauld. Kilsyth and Kirki 33.43
    Dumfries and Galloway 33.6
    Glasgow Central 34.5
    Airdrie and Shotts 34.61
    Paisley and Renfrewshire North 34.96
    Dunfermline and Fife West 35.62
    Glasgow East 36.81
    Inverclyde 38.47
    Glasgow North West 38.79
    Glenrothes 40.61
    Dunbartonshire West 41.19
    Paisley and Renfrewshire South 41.54
    Renfrewshire East 41.91
    Motherwell and Wishaw 42.95
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West 44.7
    Glasgow South West 46.16
    Coatbridge. Chryston and Bells 49.75
    Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath 50.24
    Glasgow North East 54.21

    In 2011 Inverclyde by-election, Labour majority was reduced to 20.8%

  • mnativesmnatives Posts: 3
    apart from free credits for every correct answer.
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