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Scottish #IndyRef poll by Panelbase for S Times has YES 37%+1 NO 46%+2 with comparisons on May.
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First again ! Why ?0
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Salmond is a canny Scot. He knew all along he won't get full indy. But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !0
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Can't believe this is the only poll on the subject in the last two months. Stingy newspapers up north (and down south), clearly!0
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Feels like you are rewriting history here.surbiton said:Salmond is a canny Scot. He knew all along he won't get full indy. But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
While I expect the same outcome, I don't think it was a great masterplan. Don't forget how keen the SNP was to have DevoMax on the ballot and how frustrated they were that the government wouldn't spell out what they meant by a further transfer of power following a vote to stay in.0 -
Something tells me you haven't been following this whole DevoMax/Indy Referendum malarky in Scotland over the last few years......surbiton said:
Salmond is a canny Scot. He knew all along he won't get full indy. But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
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On topic, those headline numbers are pretty close this far out. Salmond only has to swing one voter in 20, which doesn't sound like an impossible ask for someone as talented as him.0
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(OT) Frink A. Sen E.1. zinterested, today at 1pm on BBC2 is the final of the world championship 10-metre platform diving competition.
My loyalties are torn between Tom Daley (because he's British) and the Mexican Iván García (because he's incredibly beautiful (especially in his work clothes, obviously)). Also in the final are Oleksandr Bondar from Ukraine, who was born on the same day as Ivan Garcia, and of course PB's very own Andrea Chiarabini from Italy, who has the same first name and therefore must be the same person. Ideally, the Chinese diver Qiu Bo will come 4th, because the Chinese hate losing.0 -
When No gets defined as status quo and budget cuts, and more Tory Govt with UKIP is what you are probably voting for then to your average Scotsman who sees infrastructure being built in London from oil monies but not much in Scotland then it will perhaps look different.Charles said:
Feels like you are rewriting history here.surbiton said:Salmond is a canny Scot. He knew all along he won't get full indy. But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
While I expect the same outcome, I don't think it was a great masterplan. Don't forget how keen the SNP was to have DevoMax on the ballot and how frustrated they were that the government wouldn't spell out what they meant by a further transfer of power following a vote to stay in.
YES are (Orange Order and Rangers supporters excluded) far more passionate than NO.
NO needs the don't knows to settle for status quo and if 37% vote YES, which I think is likely, then they need 37% of the 63% left to vote NO.
Promises of jam tomorrow will be played back and remind people what Tories said in 79, and Lamont assuming she loses her where's wally tag by then will be reminded of her voting against devolution. Powder is dry but ready to go, and damning evidence.
Many are inclined to think it cannot be any worse than the current Tory Government.
Same thing happened in 2011, a late swing when people said it cannot be worse than it was.
Fear and flag waving has a limit, and stories have got silly, so I suspect NO will pull perhaps 35% of the population and so issue is can YES get their supporters out on a poll of 70% and win.
The devolution poll had less voters remember; so I think even 75% is pushing it.0 -
I think there will be a concerted attack from MSM on Salmond, black arts as it were.edmundintokyo said:On topic, those headline numbers are pretty close this far out. Salmond only has to swing one voter in 20, which doesn't sound like an impossible ask for someone as talented as him.
Having a go at a Scotsman waving a saltire at Wimbledon seems to be the best the MSM can do. Pathetic in my view. I hope he hands over 3 months out to Sturgeon and then the female vote rockets up and gets YES over the line.0 -
SNP 48% and Greens 6% makes 54% support in poll for parties where their position is indy. Accept some in those parties do not agree, and of course that some in Con. Labour and LibDems do too. That is amazing mid-term?
In Sunday Times but will not be lead story on the Beeb I suspect!0 -
Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 26th July - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%; APP -270
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Interesting that Sunday Times poll also confirmed the big 4 parties in England "combined" only get between 42% and 46% ALL UP in Scotland. Politically very different. Greens more popular than Lib Dems which says a lot too. (Green vote not seen as, or deemed as, a wasted vote as smaller parties can get into Scottish parliament.)Financier said:Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 26th July - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%; APP -27
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Yes, you'd never get a Green MP at Westminster.redcliffe62 said:(Green vote not seen as, or deemed as, a wasted vote as smaller parties can get into Scottish parliament.)
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YouGov
Leaders well/badly:
DC: -16(-18)
EdM:-37 (-35)
NC:-49 (-51)
Coalition managing the economy: -20 (-26)
In your opinion how good or bad is the state of
Britain's economy at the moment?
Good: 11(8)
Bad: 57 (64)
How do you think the financial situation of your
household will change over the next 12
months?
Better: 15 (12)
Same: 39 (35)
Worse: 42(45)
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I get the irony but a one-off victory against FPTP by Lucas is not the same as your Green vote counting every election in an albeit contrived form of PR. You vote Green and you contribute to a member in Scotand. You vote Green in every seat bar Brighton Pavilion and it is for all intents and purposes sadly a wasted vote.GeoffM said:redcliffe62 said:(Green vote not seen as, or deemed as, a wasted vote as smaller parties can get into Scottish parliament.)
Yes, you'd never get a Green MP at Westminster.
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Snippet from the STimes re EdM's office
" Senior Labour MPs complain that their party is “in the grip of the intellectuals” who do not know how to turn highfaluting ideas into practical policies. “Ed has some interesting intellectual thoughts, but we need people who translate that into meaningful policy. The political class needs to understand what the aspirations of ordinary people are,” said one.
Others expressed frustration at the way Miliband runs his office. “His office is often just rude,” said one MP. “He hasn’t got a team around him. Where is the Alastair Campbell? With Gordon Brown, we had people in who were the intermediaries with the rest of the world, who had this hinterland with the party. Ed has a lot of young men. All the women seem to be secretaries. Ed’s personal weakness is he only tends to appoint people he knows and trusts. With Blair you used to get a call quite often from his office, but with Ed you never hear from anyone.”
To add to Miliband’s woes, without guaranteed union backing Labour could find itself in deeper financial trouble than usual. The party’s governing body, the national executive committee, has privately raised fears it will not have enough money to fund a general election — or next year’s European and local elections. Spooked by the prospect of falling revenue from the unions, Labour’s creditors could start to call in loans. To try to plug the hole, Labour HQ has drafted in a professional fundraising company which is hitting the phones to members, attempting to drum up a few extra quid.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1293141.ece
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YouGov
Thinking about how the government is cutting
public spending, do you think the government
should cut spending less, cut spending more,
or are they getting the balance about right?
More: 15(11)
Less: 47(49)
Right: 25(23)
DK: 14(16(
Who would you trust more to run the economy?
DC&GO: 39(36)
EdM&EdB 26(26)
Not sure: 35 (38)
Do you think George Osborne is doing a good
job or a bad job as Chancellor of the
Exchequer?
Good:25(25)
Bad:45(52)
Not sure:30 (23)
Do you think Ed Balls is doing a good job or a
bad job as Shadow Chancellor?
Good: 18 (Lab: 45)
Bad: 40 (Lab 13)
Not sure: 42 (Lab:42)
Do you think Alistair Darling did a good job or a
bad job when he was Chancellor of the
Exchequer from 2007-2010?
Good: 22
Bad: 41
DK: 36
Do you think George Osborne should remain as
Chancellor of the Exchequer, or do you think
David Cameron should replace him with a new
Chancellor?
Remain: 30 (17)
Replace: 42(51)
DK: 29(32)
Which of these would make the better
Chancellor of the Exchequer?
GO: 35(32)
EdB: 27(23)
DK: 38(45)
Which of these would make the better Shadow
Chancellor?
EdB; 18 (Lab:36)
A.Darling: 32; (Lab:29)
DK: 50; (Lab:35)
Do you think the economy would have
performed better or worse over the past three
years had Labour won the last election?
Better: 32
Worse: 43
DK:25
The Office of National Statistics has announced
that Britain's economy grew by 0.6% in the
second quarter of 2013, after growing by 0.3%
in the first three months of this year.
Do you think Britain's economy is currently...?
On the mend, and likely to continue growing in the
months ahead: 38
Bumping along the bottom, and NOT likely to grow
in the months ahead:49
Not sure: 13
How likely, if at all, do you think it is that Britain
will go back into recession during the next 12
months?
Likely: 35
Not Likely:50
DK:15
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Lockerbie looms again (Telegraph)0
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Re the May diabetes story - I was rather surprised that some posters thought developing Type 1 in later life was unheard of - my dad became Type 1 when he was in his mid-50s and had gone undiagnosed for several months.
He complained of the same symptoms as mentioned by Mrs T but was such an appalling hypochondriac that TBH we didn't take much notice until he fell off a chair in a diabetic coma. Oops.0 -
Mr Liddle sums up the Welby fiasco rather well...
"...Then a dramatic skid to a halt and an about-turn. “Wonga is actually a very professionally managed company,” Welby informed an audience, which had to bite its lip to stop itself sniggering, “and Errol Damelin, the chief executive, is a very clever man [who] runs it extremely well.” Heaven forfend anyone should have inferred, from his previous statements, that Wonga was up to anything remotely dodgy.
We have to turn to the Gospels for a biblical parallel, I think. Matthew, Mark, Luke and John all record the moment when Jesus, full of fury, overturned the tables of the moneylenders in the temple. And then, a little later, invited them back inside for a nice cup of tea, having been told that they built the temple in the first place. Poor Welby. He has been caught doing something that Church of England prelates have practised over the years: inhabiting two very different worlds simultaneously.
The first is the fantasy island of the modern liberal left, where one lives a pristine life free from the untrammelled evils of capitalism because, maaaan, we’re not part of that corrupt system. And the second world, which is the real one, the one the rest of us inhabit, in which life is a procession of difficult compromises, and none of us is perfect, but we do the best we can... And he is a little like The Guardian newspaper, which also rails against Wonga and its invidious consequences for the working class. Guess which newspaper named Wonga digital entrepreneur of the year in 2011? http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/rodliddle/article1293196.ece
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YouGov:
As well as the news about the economy, there
have recently been a number of “good news”
stories for Britain – the birth of the royal baby,
victories at Wimbledon, the Tour de France, in
rugby and cricket. Do you personally feel more
optimistic or more pessimistic than you did a
few months ago about Britain’s future?
I am more optimistic than I was about Britain's
future: 35
More pessimistic: 3
No change - I was, and remain, optimistic: 32
No change - I was, and remain pessimistic:19
DK: 110 -
like this one?redcliffe62 said:
stories have got silly.Charles said:
Feels like you are rewriting history here.surbiton said:Salmond is a canny Scot. He knew all along he won't get full indy. But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
While I expect the same outcome, I don't think it was a great masterplan. Don't forget how keen the SNP was to have DevoMax on the ballot and how frustrated they were that the government wouldn't spell out what they meant by a further transfer of power following a vote to stay in.
"Alex Salmond has been warned about making exaggerated claims about the potential benefits of North Sea oil to an independent Scotland after asserting that future reserves are worth £300,000 a head for every Scot."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/23/alex-salmond-north-sea-oil
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Who would make the best Chancellor? DK?Financier said:YouGov
Which of these would make the better
Chancellor of the Exchequer?
GO: 35(32)
EdB: 27(23)
DK: 38(45)
Which of these would make the better Shadow
Chancellor?
EdB; 18 (Lab:36)
A.Darling: 32; (Lab:29)
DK: 50; (Lab:35)
I love it.
dk
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A note for, what I am sure are, PBers very full diaries is that my Scottish ARSE subsidiary - McARSE will be undertaking research in the coming months and will publish its first projection for the Scottish Independence Referendum on 18th September - precisely one year before the vote takes place.
Additionally the last ARSE 2015 GE projection before the summer recess will be published exclusively on PB tomorrow morning at 9.00am.
You lucky, lucky people.0 -
YouGov:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/pbl58em928/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260713.pdf
Do you think the economy would have performed better or worse over the past three years had Labour won the last election?
Better: 32
Worse: 43
Ed Miliband is damaging Labour's election chances by surrounding himself with too many people who were close to Gordon Brown'
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28
Which of these statements comes closer to your view:
‘Ed Balls’ criticisms of the present government’s economic policies have proved to be correct; as shadow chancellor he strengthens Labour’s credibility : 27
Ed Balls was one of the people who messed up Britain's economy before 2010, as shadow chancellor he weakens Labour's credibility : 43
I'd say the economic argument is being won by the coalition....
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THE full scale of the unions’ financial grip on Labour is revealed today by a Sun investigation.
They have donated an astonishing total of £120MILLION in the past 12 years.
Four out of five Labour MPs have been bankrolled by unions — including almost 100 who have received five figure sums.
Labour leader Ed Miliband has taken donations worth almost £170,000.
More than £118,000 of that is from Unite, the union run by “Red Len” McCluskey which is accused of vote-rigging.
Mr Miliband’s policy chief Jon Cruddas has had even more. He has taken £210,000 — including £157,000 from Unite or the unions which merged to form it.
We studied union handouts to Labour dating back to 2001 when online Electoral Commission records started.
In that time the party has had 7,354 union donations worth more than £120million. They include cash and perks like advertising, travel or use of buildings.
Since Mr Miliband became Labour leader in 2010 the unions have stumped up £23.6million — almost half the party’s £51.8million income.
But most Labour MPs have seen union support poured into their constituency parties.
Between them, 211 current MPs’ local parties have had donations worth £2.4million.
That’s an average of more than £11,000 each from the 15 unions officially affiliated to Labour.
(see interesting photo)
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5038013/Labour-union-donations-revealed.html#ixzz2aJt56ZAw
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Not that Labour has a lot of options in replacing Ed - while most responses are unchanged at "no difference I would (20) or would not (36) vote Labour anyway", or "don't know" (20) the alternatives stack up as (net "more likely to vote Labour"):
Darling: -3
Balls: -7
Cooper: -2
Umunna: -4
Murphy: -6
Among 2010 Lib Dems Balls has the biggest anti vote at -100 -
" Ed Miliband is damaging Labour's election chances by surrounding himself with too many people who were close to Gordon Brown'CarlottaVance said:YouGov:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/pbl58em928/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260713.pdf
Do you think the economy would have performed better or worse over the past three years had Labour won the last election?
Better: 32
Worse: 43
Ed Miliband is damaging Labour's election chances by surrounding himself with too many people who were close to Gordon Brown'
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28
Which of these statements comes closer to your view:
‘Ed Balls’ criticisms of the present government’s economic policies have proved to be correct; as shadow chancellor he strengthens Labour’s credibility : 27
Ed Balls was one of the people who messed up Britain's economy before 2010, as shadow chancellor he weakens Labour's credibility : 43
I'd say the economic argument is being won by the coalition....
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28 "
Ed Miliband will have to sack Ed Miliband if he wants to be free of his Brownian albatross.
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Yet some are living in hope that Ed will chop off Balls and replace him with Alistair Darling. He wasn't close to Gordon Brown at all...MonikerDiCanio said:
" Ed Miliband is damaging Labour's election chances by surrounding himself with too many people who were close to Gordon Brown'
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28 "
Oh, wait...0 -
Those are ouchtastic - Labour really needs to use the summer to get a credible message on the economy. Every good bit of news erodes their 'its all a complete crock' mantra.
I'm still laughing at Mr Burnham's desperate tweets about the NHS - he's totally lost it. Perhaps he's outsourced them to Dr Eoin...CarlottaVance said:YouGov:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/pbl58em928/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260713.pdf
Do you think the economy would have performed better or worse over the past three years had Labour won the last election?
Better: 32
Worse: 43
Ed Miliband is damaging Labour's election chances by surrounding himself with too many people who were close to Gordon Brown'
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28
Which of these statements comes closer to your view:
‘Ed Balls’ criticisms of the present government’s economic policies have proved to be correct; as shadow chancellor he strengthens Labour’s credibility : 27
Ed Balls was one of the people who messed up Britain's economy before 2010, as shadow chancellor he weakens Labour's credibility : 43
I'd say the economic argument is being won by the coalition....0 -
"If police won’t name lawyers and bankers in hacking scandal then MPs should
Call for illegal data clients to be probed like newspapers"
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5037488/Tory-Rob-Wilson-says-that-MPS-should-name-hacking-clients.html#ixzz2aJzI7HVI
Funny how the Guardian and BBC have been strangely quiet on this one.....
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Ed Balls, increasing the Labour credibility deficit almost as fast as he would increase the National DebtPlato said:
‘Ed Balls’ criticisms of the present government’s economic policies have proved to be correct; as shadow chancellor he strengthens Labour’s credibility : 27
Ed Balls was one of the people who messed up Britain's economy before 2010, as shadow chancellor he weakens Labour's credibility : 430 -
You mean Ed has surrounded himself with himself and will have to sack himself to free himself - It's just all me, me, me with Ed !!MonikerDiCanio said:
" Ed Miliband is damaging Labour's election chances by surrounding himself with too many people who were close to Gordon Brown'CarlottaVance said:YouGov:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/pbl58em928/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260713.pdf
Do you think the economy would have performed better or worse over the past three years had Labour won the last election?
Better: 32
Worse: 43
Ed Miliband is damaging Labour's election chances by surrounding himself with too many people who were close to Gordon Brown'
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28
Which of these statements comes closer to your view:
‘Ed Balls’ criticisms of the present government’s economic policies have proved to be correct; as shadow chancellor he strengthens Labour’s credibility : 27
Ed Balls was one of the people who messed up Britain's economy before 2010, as shadow chancellor he weakens Labour's credibility : 43
I'd say the economic argument is being won by the coalition....
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28 "
Ed Miliband will have to sack Ed Miliband if he wants to be free of his Brownian albatross.
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You still whinging about Scotland, get a life loser.GeoffM said:
Yes, all of the power plus someone else to blame for everything.surbiton said:Salmond is a canny Scot. He knew all along he won't get full indy. But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
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YouGov have several questions on the Royals - and the award for fast work must go to Prince George:
Which two or three, if any, of the following people do you think has improved the status of the Royal family? (Please tick up to three options)
William: 77
Kate: 64
Harry: 47
George: 13
Anne: 11
Charles: 10
Camilla: 30 -
@Financier
The Sun really is going for it. The way they've presented those figures is very effective - even if its all over 12yrs. Still, Labour were banging on about Ashcrofts Millions years after he'd stopped donating much if anything at all.
All fair in love and war as they say.0 -
Redcliffe, Geoff is a serial whinger about anything Scottish , best ignored. A Scottish girl must have pulled his pigtails in the past and he cannot get over it.redcliffe62 said:
I get the irony but a one-off victory against FPTP by Lucas is not the same as your Green vote counting every election in an albeit contrived form of PR. You vote Green and you contribute to a member in Scotand. You vote Green in every seat bar Brighton Pavilion and it is for all intents and purposes sadly a wasted vote.GeoffM said:redcliffe62 said:(Green vote not seen as, or deemed as, a wasted vote as smaller parties can get into Scottish parliament.)
Yes, you'd never get a Green MP at Westminster.0 -
MG.. According to the Telegraph, Megrahi was sold in an arms deal.0
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An orgy of repetitive posts cherry-picking today's YouGov (e.g. generally skipping the one showing Balls's rating improving slightly more than Osborne's). If you look at the tables, though, the pattern for every question is that there is almost no support for the Government's position on anything among Labour voters (though lots of don't knows) - the critical results are because Tories and half the surviving LibDems strongly prefer the government.
But Miliband doesn't need to persuade Tory voters or the LibDem rump that the government is doing badly in order to take over in Number 10. He needs to retain 35%ish of the vote and avoid the Tories soaring past to 38-40%. So far, there isn't much sign of that being difficult - the Labour vote doesn't look frothy or variable at all (ironically, because Labour hasn't attracted the frothy "down with whoever's in power" vote which does normally swing back), and the Tories are stuck in the low 30s.0 -
That does not too bad to me , 9% lead with 17% undecided and the unionists scare stories hacking people off big time. Sounds good to me.CarlottaVance said:
like this one?redcliffe62 said:
stories have got silly.Charles said:
Feels like you are rewriting history here.surbiton said:Salmond is a canny Scot. He knew all along he won't get full indy. But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
While I expect the same outcome, I don't think it was a great masterplan. Don't forget how keen the SNP was to have DevoMax on the ballot and how frustrated they were that the government wouldn't spell out what they meant by a further transfer of power following a vote to stay in.
"Alex Salmond has been warned about making exaggerated claims about the potential benefits of North Sea oil to an independent Scotland after asserting that future reserves are worth £300,000 a head for every Scot."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/23/alex-salmond-north-sea-oil0 -
On topic, EiT is (as always) right - the headline "No" lead isn't too impressive. That's a chunky reserve of people not sure they'll vote, though - if it starts to look close I'd guess they'll stir themselves. What Salmond needs is a quietly successful campaign that peaks at exactly the right moment after the plast poll has shown No still comfortably ahead.0
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Jack I look forward to regular reports from McARSEJackW said:A note for, what I am sure are, PBers very full diaries is that my Scottish ARSE subsidiary - McARSE will be undertaking research in the coming months and will publish its first projection for the Scottish Independence Referendum on 18th September - precisely one year before the vote takes place.
Additionally the last ARSE 2015 GE projection before the summer recess will be published exclusively on PB tomorrow morning at 9.00am.
You lucky, lucky people.0 -
What Salmond is aiming at is power, and power without responsibility — the prerogative of the harlot through the ages.GeoffM said:
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I see our very intellectually weak Labour troll - Surbiton - thinks that DevoMax is a runner. Sad to see a Socialist wishing to disregard the will and good-work of 84% of the UK population in the hope of picking-up a few dozen rotten-boroughs in Northern-Britain.
I am a committed supporter of Scots independence because I believe in democracy: The fact that the left perpetuate discrimination against English voters (through corrupt boundaries) is of no benefit to anyone. And be sure; if Scotland votes "No" then demographics will ensure the eventual transformation of the UK into Englandshire. It is but a shame that the "Yes" campaign have the moronic-pair, Salmond and Sturgeon, floundering about trying to bait their opponents....0 -
@NickPalmer wrote :
"An orgy of repetitive posts cherry-picking ...."
Not my type of orgy I must say Nick, but hey ho ....0 -
darling was a massive flop, a Brown patsy, why would anyone still believe the cretin would be any better second time roundScott_P said:
Yet some are living in hope that Ed will chop off Balls and replace him with Alistair Darling. He wasn't close to Gordon Brown at all...MonikerDiCanio said:
" Ed Miliband is damaging Labour's election chances by surrounding himself with too many people who were close to Gordon Brown'
Agree: 40
Disagree: 28 "
Oh, wait...
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You mean this one:NickPalmer said:An orgy of repetitive posts cherry-picking today's YouGov (e.g. generally skipping the one showing Balls's rating improving slightly more than Osborne's
Which of these would make the better Chancellor of the Exchequer?
Osborne: 35 (+3)
Balls: 27 (+4)
So Osborne's 9 point lead "falls" to 8?
Or this one:
Which of these would make the better Shadow Chancellor?
Balls: 18
Darling: 30
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Mine neither, but then again @JohnO was apparently deflowering the lovelies of Weybridge last week!JackW said:@NickPalmer wrote :
"An orgy of repetitive posts cherry-picking ...."
Not my type of orgy I must say Nick, but hey ho ....0 -
Geoff, there is a flaw in your theory however, Westminster retains all the power, Salmond can only spend the pocket money he is given.GeoffM said:0 -
Too kind young malcolmg.malcolmg said:
Jack I look forward to regular reports from McARSEJackW said:A note for, what I am sure are, PBers very full diaries is that my Scottish ARSE subsidiary - McARSE will be undertaking research in the coming months and will publish its first projection for the Scottish Independence Referendum on 18th September - precisely one year before the vote takes place.
Additionally the last ARSE 2015 GE projection before the summer recess will be published exclusively on PB tomorrow morning at 9.00am.
You lucky, lucky people.
Let's hope they make "interesting" viewing.
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Morning Richard, we all know Blair had him down for freedom for arms/oil deal. When the Scottish government released him on compassionate grounds , the alternative was that they would hav ebeen forced to under Blair's shady deal and been lumbered with the blame for doing it based on nothing. Him getting cancer at least gave them a realistic way of letting him go and not taking the can for Blair's Westminster deal.richardDodd said:MG.. According to the Telegraph, Megrahi was sold in an arms deal.
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Another YouGov - George Osborne should be replaced as CoE (net): +12 (-22)0
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LOL .... Well quite.Plato said:
Mine neither, but then again @JohnO was apparently deflowering the lovelies of Weybridge last week!JackW said:@NickPalmer wrote :
"An orgy of repetitive posts cherry-picking ...."
Not my type of orgy I must say Nick, but hey ho ....
I was pleased to note that JohnO's little local erection had been so successful !!
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He was supposed to be released on compassionate grounds but the report seems to suggest that the Scottish Government were up to their necks in it as well as Blair/Brown, and went along with the deal.0
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Just tripped across a new parody account - it has real promise @OwenEoins84.0
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Ongoing, the DevoMax post NO settlement would include extra powers including tax-raising ones according to the Surbiton theory that I originally commented on:malcolmg said:Geoff, there is a flaw in your theory however, Westminster retains all the power, Salmond can only spend the pocket money he is given.
I can see how you'd use the phrase "pocket-money" for the current situation ... but I can't see any result, either a YES or NO, which would mean you won't be setting your own tax rate soon. I think Surbiton is correct in his assessment of the outcome.Surbiton said:But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
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Can you you quote the part of the Tele piece that suggests that?richardDodd said:He was supposed to be released on compassionate grounds but the report seems to suggest that the Scottish Government were up to their necks in it as well as Blair/Brown, and went along with the deal.
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Since Mr Palmer is concerned Mr Balls numbers are being under reported:
Best Chancellor among VI:
Osborne: 83
Balls: 65
Doing a good job (net) among VI:
Osborne: +60
Balls: +320 -
After this weekend, running total of the 41's Unite backed candidates:
13 selected
17 defeated
10 to go (+ Falkirk suspended)0 -
TUD The entire piece seems to suggest Scottish complicity, the compassion stuff was rubbish.0
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Good article from Rawnsley:
"David Cameron has his "we're all in this together" trope. Ed Miliband has his "One Nation" slogan. Yet neither can make a good claim to be a national leader when each really speaks for only one half of the country. There could be a great prize awaiting whoever is first to find a way of making it whole again."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/28/labour-tories-north-south-divide?guni=Keyword:news-grid aux-1 Pixies:Pixies:Position60 -
Fluffy you were doing well till you got to the end. We would be nowhere if not for Salmond, he will have earned his retirement after the YES vote. As you say if the vote is no we may as well pack up and just accept that we will be an impoverished English region forever.FluffyThoughts said:I see our very intellectually weak Labour troll - Surbiton - thinks that DevoMax is a runner. Sad to see a Socialist wishing to disregard the will and good-work of 84% of the UK population in the hope of picking-up a few dozen rotten-boroughs in Northern-Britain.
I am a committed supporter of Scots independence because I believe in democracy: The fact that the left perpetuate discrimination against English voters (through corrupt boundaries) is of no benefit to anyone. And be sure; if Scotland votes "No" then demographics will ensure the eventual transformation of the UK into Englandshire. It is but a shame that the "Yes" campaign have the moronic-pair, Salmond and Sturgeon, floundering about trying to bait their opponents....0 -
Bad news for Labour so tim tries to divert the subject back onto migration. Typical.0
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Richard , they may try to pin it on Scottish government but any sensible person will know it was Blair's stitch up and Cameron will not want to admit it as these clowns will have similar shady deals on the go. They always try to point elsewhere when caught out.richardDodd said:He was supposed to be released on compassionate grounds but the report seems to suggest that the Scottish Government were up to their necks in it as well as Blair/Brown, and went along with the deal.
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So, no quote then.richardDodd said:TUD The entire piece seems to suggest Scottish complicity, the compassion stuff was rubbish.
F minus for reading comprehension. Again.
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@CarlottaVance
The battle for the Midlands will be fascinating - how the Big Two seek to win back ground lost in the N&S looks like a very long slog.
Perhaps one of PB's data experts could list the target seats for each party that fall into Mids, N and S. The coastal towns are clearly the battle ground for Kippers given the results at LE2013 - they could be a real joker in the pack next time - though they're losing ground consistently now.0 -
TUD... Reading comprehension .. you seem to have missed the part where I said 'it seems to suggest" There was no quote to quote..Now why dont you sit and watch Braveheart again.
I am off for a swim before it gets too hot.0 -
Geoff, If the vote is NO then there is absolutely no way Westminster will increase powers. In fact they will reduce powers and money and we will end up the same as English regions with guaranteed decline except for london and South East.GeoffM said:
Ongoing, the DevoMax post NO settlement would include extra powers including tax-raising ones according to the Surbiton theory that I originally commented on:malcolmg said:Geoff, there is a flaw in your theory however, Westminster retains all the power, Salmond can only spend the pocket money he is given.
I can see how you'd use the phrase "pocket-money" for the current situation ... but I can't see any result, either a YES or NO, which would mean you won't be setting your own tax rate soon. I think Surbiton is correct in his assessment of the outcome.Surbiton said:But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
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Richard , it was well reported at the time, in Scotland at least, that Blair's deal in the desert was binding and that under Westminster rules , the Scottish government would be forced to let Megrahi be transferred back to Libya. He got cancer and was released on compassionate grounds , but would have beeen freed in any event due to Westminster chicanery.richardDodd said:TUD... Reading comprehension .. you seem to have missed the part where I said 'it seems to suggest" There was no quote to quote..Now why dont you sit and watch Braveheart again.
I am off for a swim before it gets too hot.0 -
Can't see it Malcolm.malcolmg said:
Geoff, If the vote is NO then there is absolutely no way Westminster will increase powers. In fact they will reduce powers and money and we will end up the same as English regions with guaranteed decline except for london and South East.GeoffM said:
Ongoing, the DevoMax post NO settlement would include extra powers including tax-raising ones according to the Surbiton theory that I originally commented on:malcolmg said:Geoff, there is a flaw in your theory however, Westminster retains all the power, Salmond can only spend the pocket money he is given.
I can see how you'd use the phrase "pocket-money" for the current situation ... but I can't see any result, either a YES or NO, which would mean you won't be setting your own tax rate soon. I think Surbiton is correct in his assessment of the outcome.Surbiton said:But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
If there's another Coalition then the LibDems will not countenance a reduction in powers. Neither will Labour - Electoral suicide in Scotland. So that leaves a majority Conservative government who have shown no willingness to deconstruct the devolution settlement - indeed such a change in policy would much more likely to eventually lead to an independent Scotland.
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Regarding the illegal immigrant van.... Won't many illegals not be able to speak English therefore rendering it meaningless?
I see a commons committee has deemed immigration stats not fit for purpose, reminds me of the old magazine column 'Well Knock Me Down" with A.Feather0 -
When you get back from your paddle, perhaps you can test your comprehension by providing a word, phrase or line from 'an entire piece' that suggests 'that the Scottish Government were up to their necks in it'. It'll be good practice for all that grown up, joined-up writing stuff that seems to elude you.richardDodd said:TUD... Reading comprehension .. you seem to have missed the part where I said 'it seems to suggest" There was no quote to quote..Now why dont you sit and watch Braveheart again.
I am off for a swim before it gets too hot.
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Okay, that's an interesting point of view.malcolmg said:Geoff, If the vote is NO then there is absolutely no way Westminster will increase powers. In fact they will reduce powers and money and we will end up the same as English regions with guaranteed decline except for london and South East.
Originally I was agreeing with Surbiton and simply extending his point by saying that DevoMax would have given extra powers but removed the responsibility when using them because there was still someone to blame if it all went wrong. Now I see that you don't buy the Surbiton thesis; therefore mine fell with it.
Without jumping down my throat please, Cameron has specifically said that more powers would be devolved in the event of NO. You already had mild tax varying powers (although they weren't renewed iirc?) so that principle is established. Hard not to see an incoming Lab govt granting more powers too in an effort to win back votes.
So where do you get your "reduce powers" from? Powers like devolution are almost impossible to pull back even with the political will to do so. I really can't see that being done or even anyone suggesting it. Do you have any quotes to support it or is it just a gut instinct?
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The Megrahi Decision is interesting because it exposes the shallowness and cowardice of the SNP . They claimed to be making a brave , independent decision but when things got too hot they passed the buck and blamed their New Labour sponsors. Pathetic.Theuniondivvie said:
When you get back from your paddle, perhaps you can test your comprehension by providing a word, phrase or line from 'an entire piece' that suggests 'that the Scottish Government were up to their necks in it'. It'll be good practice for all that grown up, joined-up writing stuff that seems to elude you.richardDodd said:TUD... Reading comprehension .. you seem to have missed the part where I said 'it seems to suggest" There was no quote to quote..Now why dont you sit and watch Braveheart again.
I am off for a swim before it gets too hot.
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Keith Vaz tweets: "A shock to be told u have diabetes mine came 6 years ago. Theresa May right to reveal. 500k have it and don't know. Take the test #diabetes"0
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Thought it was a really poor show from some that assumed it was a stunt story. I can't understand why there's a view that having Type 1 is some terrible affliction, but as Diabetes UK said earlier - lots of very senior bods have it and don't talk about it because of the stigma that sufferers can't cope with a high pressure/big workload job.CarlottaVance said:Keith Vaz tweets: "A shock to be told u have diabetes mine came 6 years ago. Theresa May right to reveal. 500k have it and don't know. Take the test #diabetes"
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"Press regulation is becoming real: August won't be a holiday this year
Now that the FT has signed up, Ipso is the clear frontrunner: and the next few weeks will be decisive for its future"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/jul/28/press-regulation-real-august?CMP=twt_fd0 -
It would have to be in very large type indeed, if folk myths are to be believed.tim said:A Dave Porn Van
"Put that down and move away from the keyboard"
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Rumours reach me that a northern council sponsored by the EU is considering a bus busting hand yourself in campaign.
Cheshire County Council have been approached by the EU after it became clear that there were severe infractions of the milk quotas in the north west of England and a pilot scheme of mobile shame a surplus dairy skimmer might bear fruit.
Developing non story ?? ....0 -
You may well be right Jack, but I cannot see them giving away anything significant. Bizarrely if the economy starts to recover and Tories look like winning it will most likely tip the balance. It will be interesting to see how Labour end up in Scotland, Labour for Independence seem to be getting more prominent and the regional party have disappeared , Johann has been in hiding for a month. It is beginning to look a little different , I get the feeling that people are beginning to turn due to the constant scare stories that talk Scotland down. Given Labour are running the NO campaign it is likely they will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.JackW said:
Can't see it Malcolm.malcolmg said:
Geoff, If the vote is NO then there is absolutely no way Westminster will increase powers. In fact they will reduce powers and money and we will end up the same as English regions with guaranteed decline except for london and South East.GeoffM said:
Ongoing, the DevoMax post NO settlement would include extra powers including tax-raising ones according to the Surbiton theory that I originally commented on:malcolmg said:Geoff, there is a flaw in your theory however, Westminster retains all the power, Salmond can only spend the pocket money he is given.
I can see how you'd use the phrase "pocket-money" for the current situation ... but I can't see any result, either a YES or NO, which would mean you won't be setting your own tax rate soon. I think Surbiton is correct in his assessment of the outcome.Surbiton said:But he will get Devomax as a consolation which is Indy all but in name. Probably better !
If there's another Coalition then the LibDems will not countenance a reduction in powers. Neither will Labour - Electoral suicide in Scotland. So that leaves a majority Conservative government who have shown no willingness to deconstruct the devolution settlement - indeed such a change in policy would much more likely to eventually lead to an independent Scotland.
Labour have yet to realise that after the reasonable performance in government by SNP, people realise how bad Labour were and the fact that they are now espousing Tory policies will not help them.0 -
Morning all. I reckon Eck will be fairly chuffed with those numbers. He has come from further behind in the past and won. The problem for those of you who are English is that the vote will not come down to an economic argument or world politics. It will come down to emotional ties.
It is like the Devolution campaign all over again. The Tories were the only party who said voting Yes to Holyrood would effectively see the beginning of the end of the UK. Barely 15 years later, the only things which Scotland shares with the rest of the UK are the Monarchy, the armed forces and taxation including welfare (and even that will change in 2015). Virtually every other aspect of the daily lives of Scots is controlled by the Salmond Government in Edinburgh, not the Cameron government in Westminster.
The vote will largely depend on who actually goes out to vote. We will have Eck applauding the success of Robert the Bruce in June. We will then have Eck cheering on a Scottish team opposing an English team in Glasgow at the Commonwealth Games. People are jokingly suggesting the Mel Gibson film of Braveheart will be shown on STV on the evening of 17th September 2014. It just needs the BBC or another London broadcaster to talk about the English world cup team of 1966 or miscall a British item as English in the days before the vote and more people will pile into the Yes camp on the day.
It will all be about emotional ties and in that respect, Eck currently holds all the cards. Add to that, if as I have suggested for more than a year, David Cameron by then looks like he will be heading back to Downing Street the following year, Salmond will play the anti-Tory card and that is one the Scottish Labour Party has little or no prospect of negating.
Some of us have not been greatly impressed by much of the Better Together campaign and frankly the intervention of Gordon Brown will now only see more votes pile into the Yes campaign. Even Scots now realise in increasing numbers that the man was responsible for the hardship most of us have faced in the past 3 years. It wouldn't make them vote Tory but it may make them vote Yes.0 -
Outside "timworld" according to the BBC its Egypt. Would you like to continue playing this game? If you can find another News Org saying its migration, I'll find one that says it isn't.tim said:
Outside PB Toryworld what's the biggest story?SquareRoot said:Bad news for Labour so tim tries to divert the subject back onto migration. Typical.
http://news.sky.com/
The point that you were trying to divert discussion away from bad numbers (from You Gov). for Labour remains. Its what you do.0 -
TUD..not paddle .. the word was swim..In Italy we swim, in Scotland you might just be brave enough to paddle.
The article seemed to suggest to me that there was total complicity in the decision to get Megrahi back to Libya, Scotland wanted rid and the Cancer thing was a Godsend.
Expediency posing as compassion.
My interpretation of the article seems to suggest that, your reading of it does not.
Another of my novels went to the publishers editor yesterday, I won't bother sending you a copy, it has some BIG words in it.0 -
Dave's 'immigration' vans are a failure, for two very different reasons. UKIP (partly because it is the only party not run by the metropolitan elite?) is weak in London. And it clumsily pitches its aim at potential UKIP voters who were much more likely to have voted labour before.tim said:
Why not extend the van to all offences?isam said:Regarding the illegal immigrant van.... Won't many illegals not be able to speak English therefore rendering it meaningless?
I see a commons committee has deemed immigration stats not fit for purpose, reminds me of the old magazine column 'Well Knock Me Down" with A.Feather
"committed a murder recently? hand yourself in"
"Shoplifters' put it down and go to the police"
When Farage can convincingly describe the vans as 'unpleasant and odd', it ought to be clear he has missed the target.
He could have repeated that EU immigration is mostly legal...
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Geoff, The current tax powers are useless and cannot be used, if they raise tax then westminster cut Barnett by the same amount , that is even ignoring the fact that HMRC never upgraded the tax system to be able to collect it. Re Cameron and extra powers , we have been here before many times and once the vote is over they conveniently drop it. My personal view is that London and south east will continue to suck in all the money and investment and the rest of the UK will continue the decline that we have seen in recent years. Leaders in Westminster base all decisions on how it affects this area and only Scotland at present has a chance to get out and try some different policies.GeoffM said:
Okay, that's an interesting point of view.malcolmg said:Geoff, If the vote is NO then there is absolutely no way Westminster will increase powers. In fact they will reduce powers and money and we will end up the same as English regions with guaranteed decline except for london and South East.
Originally I was agreeing with Surbiton and simply extending his point by saying that DevoMax would have given extra powers but removed the responsibility when using them because there was still someone to blame if it all went wrong. Now I see that you don't buy the Surbiton thesis; therefore mine fell with it.
Without jumping down my throat please, Cameron has specifically said that more powers would be devolved in the event of NO. You already had mild tax varying powers (although they weren't renewed iirc?) so that principle is established. Hard not to see an incoming Lab govt granting more powers too in an effort to win back votes.
So where do you get your "reduce powers" from? Powers like devolution are almost impossible to pull back even with the political will to do so. I really can't see that being done or even anyone suggesting it. Do you have any quotes to support it or is it just a gut instinct?
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LOL
Jason Cowan @jason_manc
Amusing how obsessed they are with Crosby RT @OliverJCarroll: Sadiq Khan on #marr almost called unite leader Len Crosby. Awks0 -
@Easterross
Earlier in the year I had a great few days in Edinburgh where I gave a talk at the Scottish Parliament. I came away believing that if I had a vote it would be for YES.
The country is so different with a separate legal system, cultural heritage and even its own banknotes.
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There are some very good parody accounts - even ABCWelby has one.
ArchbishopWelby @UpikTipsGuest
Improve your chances of getting to heaven by ensuring that your DVD collection contains no more than 3% pornography0 -
@ALP
FPT
Just to make it clear I have made no allegations about Philip Morris or any other companies and individuals.I have just pointed out that the system of the same person acting as media adviser for the party in government and lobbyist for private clients is prone to abuse.0 -
Regarding Scottish Independence,a swing of +8 is all that`s required for a stalemate.Not impossible by any means0
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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum
suggest Panelbase is a bit of the "Odd Man Out" on the independence question
But that doesn't dismiss most of what's been said.0 -
Janet Daley adds her 2p re the increasing volume of hard Lefties rhetoric.
"... If Team Miliband is not careful, Owen Jones may become the established face of their cause, thus leaving the country to conclude that everyone on the Left has a mental age of 14.
It is a real problem for Labour that its conversion to free-market economics and the politics of social aspiration did not work out as planned. Having been embraced in bad faith – at least by Gordon Brown, through whose agency it had to be administered – it led the party and the country into a disastrous trap. The market economy, so far as Mr Brown was concerned, was good for one thing: to produce wealth that could be taxed. It was tax revenue – which would be used to cure poverty and deliver social equality – that was the real objective.
But it turned out that booming markets produced growing differentials of wealth: relative poverty could not be “cured” by redistribution, no matter how much government spent. Trying harder and harder to make people “not poor” while society generally got richer, bankrupted the government. And it became apparent that a new sort of poverty was being created: one that was bred by dependence on government spending. This welfare underclass had far more complex problems than the old unemployed working class: hopelessness and myriad social deprivations could not be cured by temporary financial help.
However the official Left doctrine of redistribution refused to take this into account for the longest time... I was interviewed a while ago by an opinion sampling consultant employed by a famous anti-poverty campaigning foundation. The research was designed to find out why the foundation’s reports were no longer getting the media coverage that they had in previous decades...
We were largely ignoring their reports, as was most of the media, because they seemed to be based on out-of-date assumptions. The discussion about poverty and social deprivation has moved on: it is no longer seen as a simple equation of callous wealthy capitalists conspiring to keep a fixed proportion of the population down and out. In fact, it benefits the market economy to have as many prosperous people with money to spend as possible." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10205797/For-Ed-Miliband-and-the-Labour-Party-its-back-to-1982-all-over-again.html
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@malcolmg Many thanks for that reply. For what it's worth I still think that after a NO you'll get a version of devomax which will be substantial enough to kick the independence can down the road for a good few years. But as for betting on that, I think I'll stick to horses and cricket.0
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Geoff, If NO I hope you are right but do not trust politicians to do the right thing. I personally believe it will be YES, it just makes so much sense.GeoffM said:@malcolmg Many thanks for that reply. For what it's worth I still think that after a NO you'll get a version of devomax which will be substantial enough to kick the independence can down the road for a good few years. But as for betting on that, I think I'll stick to horses and cricket.
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Point-of-order:MikeSmithson said:The country is so different with a separate legal system, cultural heritage and even its own banknotes.
Scotland does not own it's own bank-notes: Scottish banks do. So they are largely owned by an Ozzie-bank and the English tax-payer.
If George Osborne does not sell-off Wee-Eck's lauded HBoS and RBoS before independence most of that money in the BoE (that off-sets those Mickey-Mouse notes) will belong to Westminster and the English electorate. That is an interesting thought, no...?0
This discussion has been closed.