politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The diminishing options of the average Labour MP

Great visual.

I'm reluctant to say this, but I'm bored stiff of these IDS et al comparisons from ages ago. Corbyn is in a league of his own along with his brow-beating comrades.

I really can't see ANY valid comparisons with ANY Party right now.

HYUFD said:

IDS won 60% of Tory members in 2001 and yet he was replaced by Michael Howard by MPs without consulting the members, Labour is now polling as low as Michael Foot did in its worst ever poll defeat. Labour should forget this membership (made up anyway of significant numbers of leftwing entryists since the New Labour years) and any war would be better than the abysmal electoral fate it faces under Corbyn. Kinnock had a war with militant and saved the Labour Party, had there been no war it may well have turned into nothing more than a pressure group

@moses I think it is run by the same group who run the Tebay or Westmorland services.

Is it possible for the parliamentary party to "go over the head" of the membership to appeal directly to (erstwhile) Labour voters? The problem is that the Corbynite tendency in the party membership has driven a wedge between MPs and voters.

Thanks AM. As usual a thought-provoking read.

Even taking into account your postscript, it does sound as if Labour are screwed for the next couple of years, external events excluded.

Plato_Says said:

I'm reluctant to say this, but I'm bored stiff of these IDS et al comparisons from ages ago. Corbyn is in a league of his own along with his brow-beating comrades.

I really can't see ANY valid comparisons with ANY Party right now.

HYUFD said:

IDS won 60% of Tory members in 2001 and yet he was replaced by Michael Howard by MPs without consulting the members, Labour is now polling as low as Michael Foot did in its worst ever poll defeat. Labour should forget this membership (made up anyway of significant numbers of leftwing entryists since the New Labour years) and any war would be better than the abysmal electoral fate it faces under Corbyn. Kinnock had a war with militant and saved the Labour Party, had there been no war it may well have turned into nothing more than a pressure group

Labour has all the attractions of a dating agency for praying mantis...

I hope Corbyn lasts long enough for this grand experiment in new leadership stylings to be entirely discredited, or even, which seems remarkable but let's include for the possibility, vindicated. As the piece says, he put forward a prospectus which the membership rewarded, so best to see this through to the unexpected victory or the bitter end.

In a perverse way, I feel quite vindicated in spending £3 to vote for him. We need a credible Opposition to the Tories. Labour haven't and aren't providing one.

Jezza is just the worst possible outcome for Labour - but 250k of them voted for him - it's entirely their own fault. Blaming me and others for it is laughable.

Until Labour grows up in a serious way and stops harking back 70yrs+, they're not going anywhere near power - which is another reason why I'm entirely unconcerned about any supposed *threat* Corbyn is. He's not since he's unelectable as the LotO.

kle4 said:

I hope Corbyn lasts long enough for this grand experiment in new leadership stylings to be entirely discredited, or even, which seems remarkable but let's include for the possibility, vindicated. As the piece says, he put forward a prospectus which the membership rewarded, so best to see this through to the unexpected victory or the bitter end.

MarqueeMark said:

The only way that works is if they all resign as MPs and go get a new mandate from their voters, not from their local party. Even getting nominated as the Labour candidate would be fun...

They don't need a new mandate. They got a mandate in May from 9m people on an explicitly non-Corbynite platform.

Corbyn and his 145,000 can stick it...

We need body-doubles first

viewcode said:

Plato_Says said:

I'm reluctant to say this, but I'm bored stiff of these IDS et al comparisons from ages ago. Corbyn is in a league of his own along with his brow-beating comrades.

I really can't see ANY valid comparisons with ANY Party right now.

Popular with the membership, unpopular with the hierarchy, rapidly hemorrhaging support, losing once-solid redoubts...Nick Clegg, obviously

Or, come to think of it, Hitler. Has anybody done a "Downfall" video yet?

Plato_Says said:

I'm reluctant to say this, but I'm bored stiff of these IDS et al comparisons from ages ago. Corbyn is in a league of his own along with his brow-beating comrades.

I really can't see ANY valid comparisons with ANY Party right now.

HYUFD said:

IDS won 60% of Tory members in 2001 and yet he was replaced by Michael Howard by MPs without consulting the members, Labour is now polling as low as Michael Foot did in its worst ever poll defeat. Labour should forget this membership (made up anyway of significant numbers of leftwing entryists since the New Labour years) and any war would be better than the abysmal electoral fate it faces under Corbyn. Kinnock had a war with militant and saved the Labour Party, had there been no war it may well have turned into nothing more than a pressure group

In November 2001 there were two polls, one from ICM had the Tories on 29% and Labour on 46% another from Mori had the Tories on 25% and Labour on 56% so I think the comparison holds
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005

The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

TBH, until they've worked out what vision they have for the future - I think it's nails-on-the-donkey-tail stuff.

SandyRentool said:

The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

Moses_ said:

O/T curse new thread etc. Might save you money for more betting though.......

Just driven southbound down the M5 and stopped at services just north of Junction 12. Had Sunday lunch which was superb. The place is not set like a normal service station and has been buried into a hill. Clean tidy and fairly new I think as I do t remember noticing it before as we always stopped at MIchael woods further south.

We all winge about services on motorways but I can Highly recommend if you are passing on M5 ( southbound only) . They appear to have others around the country as well and if they all like this then you will not be disappointed.

Edit - prices are also very competitive and not like normal service stations that charge the earth.

http://www.gloucesterservices.com.

Sheesh, I never complain about motorway service stations. Mind you, bladder permitting, I only stop at those that have a Burger King outlet. The extra-large bacon double cheese burger with double fries and a diet coke (a snip at only about 2000 calories) - can only be experienced in all its revolting glory at a motorway service station. Anywhere else (except maybe Victoria Station after an evening on the pop) and it is just too downmarket even to consider.

SandyRentool said:

The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

Not true. Probably 15 to 20%, which shows how bad Kendall's campaign was. But yes the Labour 'sweet spot' is soft left, and nostalgic - Jeremy sold them a better yesterday.

Skimming the ComRes poll, one thing struck me in particular - the marked demographic skew in Corbyn's ratings. At its simplest, those old enough to remember a left-wing Labour government really don't like him:

'I Trust Jeremy Corbyn to keep me & my family safe: (net agree)
18-24: -15
25-34: -19
35-44: -29
45-54: -41
55-64: -58
65+ : -70

Net Favourable view of Jeremy Corbyn:
18-24: 0
25-34: -5
35-44: -15
45-54: -28
55-64: -45
65+ : -62

Edit - Corbyn's ratings also are weakest in the Midlands.....

SeanT said:

What Labour needs, and quick, is absolutely catastrophic election results, which will force the more nervous MPs to act, and frighten the membership.

These deluded Corbynite cretins can ignore polls till doomsday, but thet can't ignore actual votes in actual elections.

So Labour need to do very badly, or to lose, in Oldham, London, Scotland, Europe, and all and any other by-elections. To do this they need to make the party look divided and useless, which, funnily enough, is exactly what the anti-Corbyn right is doing as of this moment.

That might be a problem. IDS actually did quite well at the ballot box; it was in the House of Commons that he couldn't hack it, and lost the parliamentary party who defenestrated him in a well-planned coup.

Corbyn has already lost the PLP, of course. That Hilary Benn is mooted to take the Michael Howard role is hardly encouraging. Would-be successors need to make their name by opposing the government, not their own side.

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board

Might not be too far away if Cameron can get enough on board in the Syria vote.

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board

Charismatic?

Plato_Says said:

Have a look at the C2D2 class bit too - I saw some hideous figs posted on Twitter earlier.

CarlottaVance said:

Skimming the ComRes poll, one thing struck me in particular - the marked demographic skew in Corbyn's ratings. At its simplest, those old enough to remember a left-wing Labour government really don't like him:

'I Trust Jeremy Corbyn to keep me & my family safe: (net agree)
18-24: -15
25-34: -19
35-44: -29
45-54: -41
55-64: -58
65+ : -70

Net Favourable view of Jeremy Corbyn:
18-24: 0
25-34: -5
35-44: -15
45-54: -28
55-64: -45
65+ : -62

Yes - C2 are out of whack vs C1 and DE:

Net Favourable:
AB: -39
C1: -21
C2: -30
DE: -25

Moses_ said:

O/T curse new thread etc. Might save you money for more betting though.......

Just driven southbound down the M5 and stopped at services just north of Junction 12. Had Sunday lunch which was superb. The place is not set like a normal service station and has been buried into a hill. Clean tidy and fairly new I think as I do t remember noticing it before as we always stopped at MIchael woods further south.

We all winge about services on motorways but I can Highly recommend if you are passing on M5 ( southbound only) . They appear to have others around the country as well and if they all like this then you will not be disappointed.

Edit - prices are also very competitive and not like normal service stations that charge the earth.

http://www.gloucesterservices.com.

I've had a look at the site and can't find a menu anywhere, though they seem to have farm shops and dog walks.

I'm amazed that no-one has yet challenged Corbyn in some way.

The Labour young pretenders turn out to be mostly that it seems.

It may of course be that Corbyn and co are the real deal and will lead Labour to power and the country to wealth and equality. ("Pigs with lead boots might fly" in my view, but it is possible). Failing that though they'll finish up with invaluable shadow-ministerial experience being notched up by the wrong people - Eagles, Abbot, McDonnell. Labour already had a problem with a lack of fresh blood, and this is making things worse.

It can't go on like this!

PS I get a squiggly red line under both 'Corbyn' and 'Labour' when typing this. Does my PC know something!?

Some irony that the passing of an old hard-left MP might be the straw that breaks the back of a hard-left leadership.

Also looking at the PL league table on BBC website, Spurs should rebrand themselves by dropping the cockerel and using this old friend instead:

--------------------------
5. Tottenham Hotspur
--------------------------

surbiton said:

JosiasJessop said:

surbiton said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I do have a postscript to this. The membership are not in general card-carrying trots. They're simply looking for inspiration. Jeremy Corbyn was their best option for inspiration in the summer. They are quite capable of being won over by a more centrist prospectus that convincingly shows not just electability but also that the world can be changed for the better.

Rather than worrying about whether the leader needs 35 nominations or not, the more pertinent question is: What is the electorate for the next leadership contest ? Is it just the membership or membership + £3 Tories ?

That will decide who will win.

Surely the process for electing a leader has not altered in the last few months, and is unlikely to shift towards anything that would advantage the centre with Corbyn in charge. In fact, as it says above, quite the opposite.

Centrist MPs are in more danger politically than Corbyn, at least at the moment.

Not quite. Are the £3 Tories now a constitutional part of the election procedure or was it just a decision of the NEC only for the election just concluded ?

I do not think a membership only election would necessarily return the same final result. Even last time, 49% voted for Corbyn. This could easily be 45% or lower next time. I don't think Corbyn would get too many votes in Round 2,3 ...

The £3 Tories are irrelevant. ISTR (although might be wrong) that the majority of non-Labour people taking advantage of the £3 deal were Greens and SWP types. I think there were some figures floating around during the campaign.

And you miss the point: Corbyn is rapidly capturing the capability to change the rules. Given this, he is more likely to change them towards rules that advantage his type of thinking than away from it. Besides, as he advantaged from it, you cannot blame him for keeping it.

Expect the next leadership election, if it is more than six months away, to have rules that further advantage the left.

Nah, Mr Llama is saving space for future Burger do-das.

Deranged logic is an old friend of mine called Spacey [as in Hopper]. He bought a salad to go with his as he was on *diet*

richardDodd said:

HL Some sort of deranged logic there..like choosing the 12 bore as against the 16 bore when you come to blow your head off..

Famous Belgians won't be Hercule Poirot for much longer at this rate.

Omnium said:

Plato_Says said:

0_o Belgium?!

As Britain's Davis Cup team delay their trip to Belgium, the Foreign Office has updated its guidance for travelling to the country.

It is now advising visitors not to go to places in the country with large numbers of people. Here are the full details

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12010302/Brussels-Belgium-terror-alert-on-Sunday-as-Paris-manhunt-goes-on-live.html#update-20151122-1536

World's gone mad!

It was interesting yesterday that they wanted to do house to house surveys. I'd not mind that at all if they came knocking. National ID cards seem a good idea now in retrospect too.

Mr. Omnium, no, they don't.

The state having the right to demand 'papers, please' will provide a hacker's wet dream of a database. It will not stop clean-skin psychopaths from killing people, nor deter criminals from entering the country illegally to commit mass murder.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Good piece, Mr. Meeks. It did get me wondering: if Corbyn can ignore the PLP to shift power to the membership, can't the PLP ignore Corbyn and shift power to a Shadow Leader?

Suppose Cooper, for argument's sake, gets spoken of by 100 plus Labour MPs as a good leader. And they take their voting cues in Parliament from her. Labour, de facto, becomes a diarchy rather than a monarchy.

Strategic genius Mr Dancer. They'll not do it though.

We live in Interesting Times

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/labour-resistance-using-secret-code-in-corbyn-downfall-plot

Isn't 'May your children live in interesting times' an old Arab curse?

So Masonic handshakes are out then?

CarlottaVance said:

We live in Interesting Times

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/labour-resistance-using-secret-code-in-corbyn-downfall-plot

Isn't 'May your children live in interesting times' an old Arab curse?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Omnium, no, they don't.

The state having the right to demand 'papers, please' will provide a hacker's wet dream of a database. It will not stop clean-skin psychopaths from killing people, nor deter criminals from entering the country illegally to commit mass murder.

I see your point. I don't mind if people know my name though (he says writing under a pseudonym).

I think the sweet spot is minimal data collection with maximal use. So for example if you had been seen leaving the country then it's implausible that you're trying to get into Buck house on a tour.

A spin-off would be that we'd have to invest in some serious computing.

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board

Might not be too far away if Cameron can get enough on board in the Syria vote.

We shall see

DecrepitJohnL said:

Moses_ said:

O/T curse new thread etc. Might save you money for more betting though.......

Just driven southbound down the M5 and stopped at services just north of Junction 12. Had Sunday lunch which was superb. The place is not set like a normal service station and has been buried into a hill. Clean tidy and fairly new I think as I do t remember noticing it before as we always stopped at MIchael woods further south.

We all winge about services on motorways but I can Highly recommend if you are passing on M5 ( southbound only) . They appear to have others around the country as well and if they all like this then you will not be disappointed.

Edit - prices are also very competitive and not like normal service stations that charge the earth.

http://www.gloucesterservices.com.

I've had a look at the site and can't find a menu anywhere, though they seem to have farm shops and dog walks.

No I see what you mean.

Think Farm shop...they have a fresh meat but there's a there a fish counter (small) all meant are off the local farm all burgers look homemade. Dont expect MakkieD, Costa coffe or Starbucks. They have. Quick sandwich area all freshly made not packed and delivered, , a roast meat area for all the normal dinners and a varied fish menu . A healthy eating area , a pasta area for pizza and Italian styles food. The cakes selection was like a Lyons tea shop ( if you can remember those). You can also get fuel here from a fuel station also built into the hillside.

Point was this was not your normal service station and as pulp star mentioned up thread sitting by the lake and eating Sunday dinner was superb and enjoyable. Plenty of space, not overly crowded but busy, lots of tables and smal areas to sit quiet. The whole place looks environmentally friendly and you have to really see it to get the theme of it and enjoy the food. Staff were very friendly nothing too much trouble for them. Never ever thought I would say that about a service station.

Plato_Says said:

Nah, Mr Llama is saving space for future Burger do-das.

Deranged logic is an old friend of mine called Spacey [as in Hopper]. He bought a salad to go with his as he was on *diet*

richardDodd said:

HL Some sort of deranged logic there..like choosing the 12 bore as against the 16 bore when you come to blow your head off..

You have a friend called Spacey-Hopper? I used to have a Space-Hopper. I wonder if it's the same orange thing?

Mr. Omnium, sounds like you want to re-establish exit controls, as I think they were called, which were abolished early on by New Labour. [I think they just took a note of who and how many people were leaving the country].

surbiton said:

http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

The ComRes polls for the Daily Mail are phone polls and the ComRes polls for the Sunday Mirror/IOS are online

Plato_Says said:

Famous Belgians won't be Hercule Poirot for much longer at this rate.

Omnium said:

Plato_Says said:

0_o Belgium?!

As Britain's Davis Cup team delay their trip to Belgium, the Foreign Office has updated its guidance for travelling to the country.

It is now advising visitors not to go to places in the country with large numbers of people. Here are the full details

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12010302/Brussels-Belgium-terror-alert-on-Sunday-as-Paris-manhunt-goes-on-live.html#update-20151122-1536

World's gone mad!

It was interesting yesterday that they wanted to do house to house surveys. I'd not mind that at all if they came knocking. National ID cards seem a good idea now in retrospect too.

I seem to recollect that TInTIn was good at sorting this sort of stuff out. How times change.

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

The Comres Independent polls are I think more turnout adjusted

No they both use the same ComRes turnout voter model

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

The Comres Independent polls are I think more turnout adjusted

But that does not explain why, for example:


Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent CON 42 - 42 - 42; LAB 30 - 29 -27

Tory lead 12 - 13 - 15

whereas,

Comres Daily Mail CON 42 - 39 - 38; LAB 28 - 30 - 33

Tory lead 14 - 9 - 5

It may also be the last Comres DM poll was taken post tax credits row, the latest Comres Independent poll post Corbyn's 'non shoot to kill' statement

Possibly.

We will await further polling to confirm

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board

Charismatic?

Neither was Howard, they need an experienced unity candidate first

Experienced?

Howard had served as a Secretary of State of one of the great offices of state. Which great office of state has Benn been Secretary for in government?

Hilary Benn Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural affairs and International Development, he is also Shadow Foreign Secretary as Howard was Shadow Chancellor, there is no alternative!

Neither DEFRA nor International Development are great offices of state comparable to Home Secretary. The comparison is very weak.

I thought @surbiton was a Corbynista - is that wrong?

MarqueeMark said:

surbiton said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Re Benn - as I indicated before, if the main markets move too fast, then backing Benn (current at 15-17) would be value if the wheels of a coup are in force against Corbyn. that hasn't happened yet obviously!

Benn does not have too many enemies !

Legions of Corbynistas are making Benn voodoo dollies as we speak....

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

TudorRose said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board

Might not be too far away if Cameron can get enough on board in the Syria vote.

We shall see

If Corbyn sticks to his present line and applies a whip then I can see the Syria vote becoming a rallying point for prospective stalking horses.

It will certainly be a watershed moment. If he fails to carry the PLP on such a vote then he could carry no other and as you say the Stalking horse would most likely appear. If The PLP fails to have the cojones to resist the three line whip theN Corby could as good as do what he likes and would not be removed.

The ironic thing is that either way he will have a de facto civil war behind the scenes and spend more time looking at people behind him than in front. Not good for Labour either way really. All their own fault as well.