politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Clegg’s ratings move from the negative to the positive
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Clegg’s ratings move from the negative to the positive with LD members
Every year in the run-up to conference season the LD Voice website carries out an online survey of party members. Today we have the views of the leadership which sees a big change for Nick Clegg.
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This would make sense to me if I was planning the LD campaign anyway.
Diane Abbott has won the reselection trigger ballot in Hackney North.
Rejoice
@FrankBooth
The alternative was a Tory minority government, which would have been disastrous for the country. There'd have been no stability precisely at a time when it was needed. Labour lost in 2010 and for the LDs to have done s deal with them because FPTP did not deliver them the defeat their vote share deserved would have been a travesty
Where the LDs went wrong in my view was to cede the negotiations to Orange Bookers such as Laws, Alexander, Clegg and Huhne, who are all much closer to the Tory view of the world than the average LD member and, as it turns out, to many LD voters. There should have been much more differentiation from the start. Instead the LDs gave the impression of being Tory-lite. A joint Warsi and Huhne press conference that was all about kicking Labour springs to mind from the summer of 2010. It was very foolish of the LDs to get involved in that kind of stunt. They've learned that lesson now, but it has damaged them - as many of us said it would.
At the end of Q1 2010, Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) was £2,226 billion,the highest amount ever recorded and a record high of 153.5% of GDP.
Gordon Brown had increased PSND from £311.1 billion at end Q1 2001 (or 30.8% of GDP) to over £2 trillion (153.5%), an increase of over 600% in nine years.
Why is it that Labour apologists can never accept the real figures and true state of the economy bequeathed to the coalition government?
Yes, perhaps Clegg having to pretend he was performing a u-turn on fiscal issues because of something to do with Greece (does anyone remember that any more?!) was a necessary step to resolve an uncertain election outcome.
But of course the most important thing is that the improving economy provides backing for the most persuasive political argument the LibDems have, namely that, despite political differences, they worked with the Tories to provide stability and rescue the country. Unlike most political arguments, this one has the merit of being true, which should help when 2015 comes.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/labour-faithful-risk-taking-party-back-to-the-dark-unelectable-days-8732327.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/15/vince-cable-cuts-liberal-democrats
http://m.guardiannews.com/politics/2010/jul/29/nick-clegg-changed-mind-cuts
There is an uptick over recent weeks but there have been similar upticks in the recent past of about the same size.
Essentially, the data consists of three broad areas.
1) May 2010 to Christmas 2010 - linear decay from highly positive to negative (-25)
2) January 2011 to midMarch 2012 - pretty much plateaued at -25 +/- 5 with a slight uptick at the end and then ... well, it all goes south ...
3) endMarch 2012 to present - rapid slump to negative high 30s, gradual rise to negative low 30s.
Some sort of rolling average or appropriate filter might help, but could perhaps over-complicate matters.
The simple fact is that wasn't actually any real choice. Osborne got it about right, and, stripping away all the tosh, everyone in politics knows this.
Lots of happy comrades completely divorced from reality.
'It wasn’t just Ms Siddiq. Her rivals, otherwise sensible folk, tasked with dispersing public money wisely as elected councillors, also fished for applause by condemning Balls as a traitor for attempting to anchor Labour in some sort of voter-friendly reality.
The danger for Labour is that, in selection meetings across Britain, the buttons are bursting off Ed Balls’ hairshirt.
Party members, finally freed from their Blairite shackles, are cheering to the rafters parliamentary candidates who promise a return to Labour’s comfort zone of well-meaning but unelectable commitments.
On issues ranging from education to health and welfare, the Hampstead and Kilburn candidates jettisoned carefully-nuanced shadow cabinet policy statements to win plaudits for positions which brooked no compromise with the pesky electorate outside of the Mazenod Social Club’s socialist utopia.'
It's not that Labour pissed all the money up the wall with nothing to show for it - it's that they pissed it all up the wall while actively making many things worse. Deliberately. The horror is not one of competence but of intent. Both actually. In some ways it's good they were so incompetent as had they been competent they would have done more.
BUT that would take more time than I really want to spend on it, I'm afraid. Especially since I'm using french language excel
Rough version:
http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f32/Worcester1999/Approval_zps90332011.jpg
read it right to left, horizontal scale is 'days', vertical scale is 'net approval rate'.
Don't slate it, I know its rough, you know its rough.
Lord Judge:#Hall sentence inadequate - increased to 30 months in jail
Good. That's double his sentence. What the original judge was thinking of is perplexing.
Osborne has maintained his fiscal mandate throughout his Chancellorship and even the over pessimistic OBR forecasts contained in the March 2013 EFO forecast that he will continue to meet his mandate.
Growth is cyclical and is partly dependent on external factors beyond Treasury control and on global trends. Hence the need to have flexible fiscal targets. UK growth fell in late 2011-2012 in line with almost all major economies.
The UK has however outperformed all its major EU competitors during this period meaning that growth fell less in the UK than in the EU; the UK avoided the double dip recession currently being experienced in the EU; and is currently growing faster than any other major EU country.
Not bad for a baronet from Ballentaylor, eh?
Its difficult now to assess what Balls' critique now boils down to.
1. too much, too soon.
2. too little, too late.
3. too soon to tell.
4. too much, too young.
5. too fast to live, too young to die.
"A week before the election I had a vision in which Philip of Spain and a Cheshire gentleman argued the merits of the 1557 budget in which increased spending on the BSH - Barbers Surgeries and Hospitals was considered heresy by the northern agricultural community and by the TOFFS - Tudor Official Farmers Financial Services - Committee."
1. too much, too soon.
2. too little, too late.
3. too soon to tell.
4. too much, too young.
5. too fast to live, too young to die."
Arf...!
1. Osborne got it more right than Germany;
2. Osborne got it more right than France;
3. Osborne got it more right than Italy;
4. Osborne got it more right than Spain;
5. Osborne got it more right than the EU and Eurozone;
6. Osborne got it more right than the IMF;
7. Osborne proved that the OECD were right.
I am confident that the Nabavi of All Sussex got it right on consideration of the evidence too.
[Apologies if I got the first lyric wrong].
P2 underway. Mercedes seem a shade off the pace. Looks good for Red Bull.
I'm sure you think you've said something, but whether what you think you've said has actually been said, who can say ?
I say, Mr Brooke!
The last time I looked only Italy hadn't recovered lost production from the recession. We're still 3.3% away. Boasting that this is success shows seriously warped judgement.
Beware an old man in a hurry. Cable will be 72 in June 2015. Cable turned 70 at the start of May.
They can try to change it to 'it doesn't feel like a recovery' (which is what they're effectively doing), but that's a weaker argument and harder to sell...
objective - that would be your opinion presumably Avery.
The last time I looked only Italy hadn't recovered lost production from the recession. We're still 3.3% away. Boasting that this is success shows seriously warped judgement.
Objective as in based on figures published by independent and reputable statistics authorities, My Lord.
The recovery to peak argument is a bit or a red herring. You have to look at the starting point of the recovery, or the depth of the 2009 trough. In the UK the fall in GDP was greater than in its major competitors (over 7% fall) so it is taking longer to recover even though the UK's growth rates have been higher than competing countries.
The exception is Germany which grew 4% in 2010 and 3% in 2011 mainly on the back of exports of engineering manufactures to China. Unfortunately for Merkel, Germany was then pulled down by its Euro partners on the periphery of the EU (and by declining demand from China).
The UK is now growing much faster than Germany and this differential is forecast to continue through to 2015. I expect that by 2015, the UK will have overtaken Germany as the fastest growing major EU country in the 2010-15 period, but it will be a tight finish. The other countries are nowhere near contention.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2378514/Halliburton-pleads-guilty-destroying-crucial-evidence-deadly-Deepwater-Horizon-Gulf-Mexico-oil-spill.html
Morris_Dancer said:
'On the coalition, ITV News at Ten had a very rubbish bit last night with Libby Wiener. The programme claimed the Conservatives were in power (they aren't) and then claimed it was inconsistent for Osborne to state the recession had nothing to do with him but the recovery was his.
He wasn't in power during the recession. It's 100% legitimate to assert that he had nothing to do with it.'
I almost laughed when Libby Wiener came out with that outrageous assertion, suspect the producers of ITN were cringing in embarrassment at such a blatant howler.
I think I've worked out what Louise Bagshawe's codename was on PB.
I won't say, except I think it was something along the same lines as Plato and Socrates. Am I right?
"In the UK the fall in GDP was greater than in its major competitors (over 7% fall)"
Surely some mistake? I distinctly remember Gordon stating on many occasions that we were extremely well-placed to ride out the turbulence, compared to other countries. And as we'd abolished boom and bust, we were in an enviable position.
You don't mean to imply that he was telling porkies? You'll shock tim to the core.
@Nigel_Farage
Don't tell us, show us! Ford factory closes as jobs go to Turkey on same day as Tory minister wants 'British jobs for British workers'.
---------------
Not only does Matthew Hancock look thick, he acts even thicker.
... They haven't had a 20 % currency devaluation like we've had and nor is their government borrowing the amounts HMG are. ...
Just to pick on one point in your post.
Sterling has remained reasonably stable under Osborne when measured against a basket of the world's currencies. In fact it has appreciated by near 5% in the period from May 2010 to June 2013.
Here are the stats:
Osborne will have reduced public sector spending in real terms by -3.8% by 2015.
Germany are definitely more fiscally continent than the UK - we have Gordon to thank for that.
But we may win WWIII if George is allowed to continue until 2030.
And the Finns are better even than the Krauts.
Drenge on Tom Watson:
“We were just annoyed Michael Gove didn’t get to us first. That’s the endorsement we were holding out for.”
Conversely, parties that are growing tend to start to fall out if the growth stops (while they're growing people are too excited to grumble), as you've got all those new people, each with their own theory of why you're not doing better.
It'd make an interesting thesis!
Boy George has a Midas touch, Mr. Brooke.
Scotland Yard has agreed to study claims of law-breaking involving the Unite trade union in two Labour party selection battles in London.
Met chief Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe asked Assistant Commissioner Mark Rowley to decide whether there are grounds for a criminal investigation.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/libdems-suffer-election-defeat-8733895.html?origin=internalSearch
Labour figures believe the party fears the evidence against Unite is embarrassingly thin."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/why-wont-labour-publish-falkirk-report
For those interested in 'housing bubble' debate (you know who you are) the BBC has the latest from the Land Registry.
Interesting reading. A very mixed picture, to say the least
In the key battlegrounds of the midlands and north west, prices aren't going anywhere.
In England and Wales as a whole, prices rose 0.9%, an increase driven by the London market... In Yorkshire and Humber, prices fell by 0.8% over the last year. In the East Midlands, prices fell by 0.7%. But the biggest price falls were in the North West (-4.9%) and the North East of England (-5.5%)
But this is the key point, and the reason why Osborne has given the market a little bit of support to get it going again:
The number of properties being sold has also fallen, suggesting the housing market as a whole remains in the doldrums.
Guardian - Tom Watson's resignation letter to Ed Miliband - full text
"As you know, I offered my resignation on Tuesday and you asked me to reconsider. I've thought about it and still feel it is better for you and the future unity of the party that I go now. There are some who have not forgiven me for resigning in 2006. I fully accept the consequences of that decision and genuinely hope my departure allows the party to move on.
Yet it's not the unattributed shadow cabinet briefings around the mess in Falkirk that has convinced me that the arrangement has run its course (though they don't help). I believe that the report should be published – in full – and the whole truth told as soon as possible so that the record can be made clear. I've still not seen the report but believe there are an awful lot of spurious suppositions being written."
The signed up L/Dems know that they have no alternative but to stick with Cleggover. He may be a poor leader but anyone else my be worse. Cable while an able minister would make a poor leader; a rousing cry by him would sound like a dirge, while Ed Daveys crumpled looks would put anyone off. What a crew!
The north sea oil bonanza is over.
"I've just read the "strictly private and confidential" report on the affair which Labour has refused to publish"
Obviously not that private and confidential!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-grwkqnc1U
In Oct 2008 "entirely wrong to stimulate", "4 months later you said it was right" etc etc all about Cables flip flops.
The more up to date indices are showing volume of house sales up and a reversal of declines (if not full recovery) in most areas except the North East and North West.
The leading indicators - mortgage approvals reported by the BoE - are also pointing to general upturns in prices and volume on a full regional basis.
London remains an exception and may be overheating at the top end but this will be nothing to do with the Osborne schemes which are priced to exclude and targetted outside the London markets.
I find the London property phenomenon intriguing and wonder how changing the capital's demographics by forcing the aspiring into cheaper areas and pushing the poor out altogether. The benefits cap might also be a factor.
I wonder if any inner London Labour MPs are looking around nervously and thinking.......''its getting f8cking prosperous around here.....''
I think Dave must be in South West Portugal to lead the search for Maddie.
P.S. Do you have the link for your Maldives article? DavidL was talking about it yesterday.
Also there's been some criticism over the recent past regarding his performance. Not quite the demi-god he was once made out to be perhaps.
Well at least that makes a change from buying his fish in Morrisons.
If Dave is in a place because he saw an article about himself being in that place - erm...wouldn't that mean Dave is capable of time travel or necromancy or summat?
Averting the sudden and total collapse of our entire nation's financial system and economy was a tangible result, was it not?
I'm sure most people here have read Alastair Darling's book, but if not, do so. It's easy to forget just. How. Close. We came.
None of that makes the task that the incoming Government faced any easier of course, but still, let's be honest.
Its probably unlikely he did take inspiration from it though, I expect PMs holidays are vetted and investigated by members of security services well in advance..
I wonder if it was the same snapper (no pun intended)?
This is a very different picture to London (younger son is buying flats south of Hampstead) where £1m does not buy you much at all and prices for good property are still advancing.
Also I gather that a lot of serious money from continental Europe (away from the hands of M.Hollande) is being invested in London property (without mortgages of course).
Guardian - Labour party abandons ballot-tampering inquiry
"The ballot box contained fewer than 100 postal votes, but a handful of them had been destroyed in an apparent act of sabotage. "The failure to take this seriously and get to the bottom of who actually destroyed these ballot papers leaves the party open to further suspicions in the future," said an NEC member. "This is a shameful conclusion to a shameful episode around the selection process in Erith and Thamesmead.""