politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN drops 2 in new Survation poll for UKIP donor Aaron B
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Wonder what Seumas Milne thinks about today's top story. Probably some bulls##t about being occupiers.0
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Fisher was not simply being "critical of Labour". He was actively saying that people should not vote for the Labour candidate. He was saying violent and crude things about Labour people. Now Corbyn can't change what happened in the past. But it is perfectly legitimate to question his judgment in appointing him and in continuing to support him even after he has been suspended. What a person has said and done in the recent past does have a bearing on the sort of person they are now and on whether they are fit and proper to be a senior advisor within Labour. And Corbyn's choice of him shows that he places - whatever he may say - little value on decent behaviour. It shows poor judgment on his part.NickPalmer said:
Applies to him too. Has he said anything objectionable since he was appointed? I don't like the nasty personal style of his past comments, but so long as he cuts them out now, I don't insist on retrospective vetting. But it's important to insist on that - as McDonnell wryly says, "Jeremy is trying to teach me to be a nicer person" :-).Cyclefree said:
Nuanced statement there Nick - "since they were appointed". Carefully excludes his key advisor - suspended from Labour - but in whom Corbyn still has confidence.
In any party shift of position on the spectrum, you're going to get people who were previously harsh critics to revise their view, and people who were previously supporters to express vehement and sometimes personal opposition, like Southam. It's as pointless to blame Fisher for being previously critical of Labour as it is to be blame Southam for being previously supportive.
Furthermore your statement about not insisting on retrospective vetting is, frankly, ludicrous. What on earth do you think vetting is? By its very nature it's retrospective.
That would be like a bank saying that it's ok to hire someone who has been convicted of fraud because they don't want to insist on "retrospective vetting".
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I don't think that is true. Interest accumulates and the person is liable for payment wherever in the world they are. There are difficulties collecting of course!OldKingCole said:
No; if a student emigrates after graduating then tuition fees cannot be recovered.isam said:
Will they pay them back if they go straight to Oz?DecrepitJohnL said:
We should make students pay tuition fees. Oh wait ...watford30 said:
Yes. Why should Doctors train at our expense and then bugger off to Australia for more money?taffys said:''If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.''
Should medical courses in the UK should come with more strings attached???0 -
Will Corbyn volunteer to be one of the people risking their lives to grab Jihadi John so that he can appear in court?Scott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
No?0 -
Can you collect a debt in another country? I agree interest accumulates and the student would have a problem on return.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't think that is true. Interest accumulates and the person is liable for payment wherever in the world they are. There are difficulties collecting of course!OldKingCole said:
No; if a student emigrates after graduating then tuition fees cannot be recovered.isam said:
Will they pay them back if they go straight to Oz?DecrepitJohnL said:
We should make students pay tuition fees. Oh wait ...watford30 said:
Yes. Why should Doctors train at our expense and then bugger off to Australia for more money?taffys said:''If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.''
Should medical courses in the UK should come with more strings attached???0 -
If he ever gets near the levers of power, we will be a total joke on the world stage.Scott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
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What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers0
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Oi! That's my idea, from a couple of days ago!antifrank said:As a possible solution to the migrants benefits problem (to be honest it doesn't bother me at all but I know others feel differently), could we move to a contributory principle but treat participation in full time education in the UK as a contribution in kind?
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This man is so far removed from the way the majority will see this, it's scarcely believable.Scott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
I wonder just how low Labour are going to go in a genuine election with this baggage/messenger. The by election results last night were appalling and it's hard to recall a good result outside of leftie London in recent weeks.
The Lib Dems should be able to haul themselves back into the game.
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It's different though. This is killing an enemy combatant in time of war.isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
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Why? Can’t help feeling it would have been much better if he’d been caught and called upon to explain himself.FrancisUrquhart said:
If he ever gets near the levers of power, we will be a total joke on the world stage.Scott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
Martydom? In some peple’s view anyway.0 -
Would be interesting to know how he would get him extraditedFrancisUrquhart said:
If he ever gets near the levers of power, we will be a total joke on the world stage.Scott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
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Surely this was an opportunity to prove what a PM like figure he could be. Instead we get this rubbish- did he want to risk more lives attempting to capture him? He is awful.FrancisUrquhart said:
If he ever gets near the levers of power, we will be a total joke on the world stage.Scott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
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Wonder what he said that was [alleged] racist?Casino_Royale said:O/T - Oisin Tymon is suing Clarkson:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-348097580 -
It's a pity he didn't press charges. It was a fairly serious assault and I would have liked to see Clarkson in court.Casino_Royale said:O/T - Oisin Tymon is suing Clarkson:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-348097580 -
Sorry, didn't see that. Two fools not differing, obviously.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oi! That's my idea, from a couple of days ago!antifrank said:As a possible solution to the migrants benefits problem (to be honest it doesn't bother me at all but I know others feel differently), could we move to a contributory principle but treat participation in full time education in the UK as a contribution in kind?
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IIRC, I think he swore at him angrily at the word 'Irish' was involved.FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder what he said that was [alleged] racist?Casino_Royale said:O/T - Oisin Tymon is suing Clarkson:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-348097580 -
Well I would agree, but when I suggested Russia may soon be at war with IS (after the Sharm bomb) I was decried on here, people telling me war was impossible with ISJohnLilburne said:
It's different though. This is killing an enemy combatant in time of war.isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
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Jezza called him Hoisin?FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder what he said that was [alleged] racist?Casino_Royale said:O/T - Oisin Tymon is suing Clarkson:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-348097580 -
Surely they're very different circumstances?isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
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Were there not similar debates at the end of the war -- summary execution of Nazis or the Nuremberg trials?Razedabode said:
Surely this was an opportunity to prove what a PM like figure he could be. Instead we get this rubbish- did he want to risk more lives attempting to capture him? He is awful.FrancisUrquhart said:
If he ever gets near the levers of power, we will be a total joke on the world stage.Scott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
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I understand that, but Farage himself wanted a referendum asap on the status quo. That was also wrong.Richard_Tyndall said:
But Cameron doesn't want to leave. Nor does he want anything more than the absolute minimum of change to secure a Remain vote. He is the one calling the shots here to ensure we stay in at almost any cost.Casino_Royale said:Peter Kellner is very right here - without getting all Sun Tzu, IMHO this referendum should only have been called once a clear consensus and majority to Leave had already been established:
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/features/the-power-of-uncertainty
Too late now, but this parliament should have been used for solid groundwork and building a credible future outside as the EU deteriorated.
Theresa May could then have led a referendum to leave in the early 2020s.0 -
Mine too [though I don't recall posting it]. Not sure if that helps ;-)antifrank said:
Sorry, didn't see that. Two fools not differing, obviously.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oi! That's my idea, from a couple of days ago!antifrank said:As a possible solution to the migrants benefits problem (to be honest it doesn't bother me at all but I know others feel differently), could we move to a contributory principle but treat participation in full time education in the UK as a contribution in kind?
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Has Corbyn actually said anything that's really controversial here? I'm sure many people would agree a trial, hypothetically, followed by imprisonment for life, would be the better option.0
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Judging from newspaper comments so far - most seem to think he deserved being scared shitless and then killed painfully over an extended period. Drone Death was too good for him.taffys said:
Has Corbyn actually said anything that's really controversial here? I'm sure many people would agree a trial, hypothetically, followed by imprisonment for life, would be the better option.
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We kill people we don't put on trial and aren't in the act of killing (but aren't at war with) and don't kill people we put on trial and find guiltyJosiasJessop said:
Surely they're very different circumstances?isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
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Two question relating to OGH's comment on the difference between the online and phone polls:
1. do the phone polls call land lines, cell phones or both?
2. how universal is online access in the UK?
I am sure that the polling companies do seek to correct for biases arising from the answers to the questions above, but if they are consistently divergent, then it would suggest that perhaps they are not doing so adequately.0 -
Welcome, back, Hopi!HopiSen said:Oh for God's sake. Nick. Nice or nasty, They're mad lefties, they're going to be massively unpopular, and all this is obvious. If this doesn't matter to you because you don't think winning elections is particularly important, perhaps you should reflect on the fact that it is only because Tony Blair and Gordon Brown thought otherwise that you were an MP at all.
It must be very hard to be a sane Labour supporter in current conditions. I don't think there's much you can do other than try to hold on until things improve, but that could be a long time.0 -
Which gamble would PBers go for? I went option 4
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/6651415397740789760 -
5 or 6 are the best choicesTheScreamingEagles said:Which gamble would PBers go for? I went option 4
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/6651415397740789760 -
1) Yes, some of the pollsters have included mobile phonesMTimT said:Two question relating to OGH's comment on the difference between the online and phone polls:
1. do the phone polls call land lines, cell phones or both?
2. how universal is online access in the UK?
I am sure that the polling companies do seek to correct for biases arising from the answers to the questions above, but if they are consistently divergent, then it would suggest that perhaps they are not doing so adequately.
2) 91% of UK households have/use fixed lined broadband0 -
Who said war against IS was impossible?isam said:
Well I would agree, but when I suggested Russia may soon be at war with IS (after the Sharm bomb) I was decried on here, people telling me war was impossible with ISJohnLilburne said:
It's different though. This is killing an enemy combatant in time of war.isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
As it happens, I believe it's possible for Russia to win against IS, at least conventionally.
They didn't win against the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, and the country turned into a meat grinder that killed many hundreds of thousands. The US and coalition did not 'win' in Iraq, despite many (hundreds of thousands according to some sources) of deaths and many billions spent.
Al Qaeda grew out of the Mujahideen, who learnt to fight against Russians on Afghanistan. Al Qaeda started fighting the Americans, who then invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. Fighters in Iraq formed the predecessors of ISIL/IS, who are helping destabilise several countries.
And so it will continue unless we find a way of stopping the Shia/Sunni conflicts and the radicalisation of so many youngsters.0 -
Something like that might have been possible, if we had political leaders with half an eye on even the medium term future.Casino_Royale said:
I understand that, but Farage himself wanted a referendum asap on the status quo. That was also wrong. Too late now, but this parliament should have been used for solid groundwork and building a credible future outside as the EU deteriorated.Richard_Tyndall said:But Cameron doesn't want to leave. Nor does he want anything more than the absolute minimum of change to secure a Remain vote. He is the one calling the shots here to ensure we stay in at almost any cost.
Instead we have a referendum which is totally meaningless, which was designed merely to paper over the cracks in the Tory Party.0 -
Excellent comment on Cricinfo:
Shoaib Malik to Root, 1 run, more singles action than on Tinder at the moment.
These 2 do needed to get on with it though or the excellent start will fade to nothing. This seems to be a wicket with nothing for the bowlers so that is what the English bowlers will get. Only scoreboard pressure is likely to produce wickets.0 -
The inference of his comments is that a bunch of published videos showing the killer chopping other human beings' heads off is inadequate to formulate a judgement on right or wrong.taffys said:Has Corbyn actually said anything that's really controversial here? I'm sure many people would agree a trial, hypothetically, followed by imprisonment for life, would be the better option.
The public however will just apply some common sense.
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The difference was at that point that we had those Nazis in custody. As the former special forces talking head on Sky News just said, that was simply not possible in this case.DecrepitJohnL said:
Were there not similar debates at the end of the war -- summary execution of Nazis or the Nuremberg trials?Razedabode said:
Surely this was an opportunity to prove what a PM like figure he could be. Instead we get this rubbish- did he want to risk more lives attempting to capture him? He is awful.FrancisUrquhart said:
If he ever gets near the levers of power, we will be a total joke on the world stage.Scott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
If you want a more apt comparison think Reinhard Heydrich's assassination in Prague.0 -
TSE - I'd have gone for 6, maximising my potential winning. On the sums given, only 5 or 6 seem acceptable answers, providing average winnings of £36, as opposed to average winnings of £34 for 4, £32 for 3 and £30 for 1 and 2.
My answer might have been very different if there had been a lot more noughts on the end of the figures quoted. Then the question of minimum acceptable win becomes more important.0 -
Pay cuts have been happening in the last 7 years in the private sector. Contract changes are imposed all the time. Ask any IT person, for instance. What makes doctors think they should be immune from what is happening elsewhere in the economy?Alistair said:
There base salary is being increased by 11% but their "normal" hours are being massively expanded to effectively eliminate overtime payments. Given that Junior Doctors already work at the limit (and beyond) of legal working hours there are no extra hours to take.malcolmg said:
They are all getting a substantial pay increase, 11%. Some may have to do some extra hours , just like most of the public do nowadays.
They are just greedy. Lots of people have to work extra hours unpaid and weekends etc without uplifts, and they have a fraction of the money that doctors earn.
It is a pay cut.
Ah yes: they save lives. But if you want to have the moral halo you can't then behave like every other worker. Or you can - and leave off the "we're a special case". There are lots of special cases out there. There is limited money.
Personally I'd be in favour of co-payments from patients or charges for some things. But if any politician were to suggest that, the very same doctors shriek about the evils of privatisation. Or market forces, as they're known, and on which they are quite keen when it comes to their own salaries.
I have quite a lot of sympathy for doctors. Members of my family are doctors. I have spent enough time with them over the years to have great respect for what they do and for what they have done to help me and mine. I understand that there is a recruitment and retention problem. But the doctors are with their "Hunt is evil" line and their apparent disregard for patients giving the impression of not living in the world the rest of us are and making the worst possible case for themselves. They really are.
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Welcome to behavioural economics -- which started when a couple of psychologists pointed out to economists that their equations did not apply to real people. Gambles 5 and 6 are the same to an economist (because the expected return is the same) and better than all the others. TSE is a lawyer not an economist.TheScreamingEagles said:Which gamble would PBers go for? I went option 4
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/6651415397740789760 -
Why, surely tales on 6 offers the best return on a 50:50 call?TheScreamingEagles said:Which gamble would PBers go for? I went option 4
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/6651415397740789760 -
Personally I do hope Jihadi John did not die instantly in that drone strike..I hope he suffered the extreme pain and shock that he inflicted on his innocent and bound victims..for as long as they did...and then died..0
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''If you want a more apt comparison think Reinhard Heydrich's assassination in Prague. ''
Nazi reprisals meant innocents lost their lives over that assassination. The same could happen here I guess.0 -
Im just going by the reaction when I suggested Russia could be in full scale war w IS soon (so obv I think its is possible)JosiasJessop said:
Who said war against IS was impossible?isam said:
Well I would agree, but when I suggested Russia may soon be at war with IS (after the Sharm bomb) I was decried on here, people telling me war was impossible with ISJohnLilburne said:
It's different though. This is killing an enemy combatant in time of war.isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
As it happens, I believe it's possible for Russia to win against IS, at least conventionally.
They didn't win against the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, and the country turned into a meat grinder that killed many hundreds of thousands. The US and coalition did not 'win' in Iraq, despite many (hundreds of thousands according to some sources) of deaths and many billions spent.
Al Qaeda grew out of the Mujahideen, who learnt to fight against Russians on Afghanistan. Al Qaeda started fighting the Americans, who then invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. Fighters in Iraq formed the predecessors of ISIL/IS, who are helping destabilise several countries.
And so it will continue unless we find a way of stopping the Shia/Sunni conflicts and the radicalisation of so many youngsters.
Enoch thought differently.. when it came to the IRA in Gibraltar at least... there is an interesting Panorama on that subject.. always interesting to revisit contemporary source of a similar incident
But IS is more of a country than the IRA ever were0 -
https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/665148135795269632
Good question and the answer is Corbio wearing a big Stetson and waving his revolver, having put his anti atom bomb badge, being parachuted into Syria.0 -
There's a 50/50 chance of my lowest return being £2! That's whyDavidL said:
Why, surely tales on 6 offers the best return on a 50:50 call?TheScreamingEagles said:Which gamble would PBers go for? I went option 4
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/6651415397740789760 -
1 is £28 isnt it?antifrank said:TSE - I'd have gone for 6, maximising my potential winning. On the sums given, only 5 or 6 seem acceptable answers, providing average winnings of £36, as opposed to average winnings of £34 for 4, £32 for 3 and £30 for 1 and 2.
My answer might have been very different if there had been a lot more noughts on the end of the figures quoted. Then the question of minimum acceptable win becomes more important.0 -
Or leave and start a new party of the centre-left.Richard_Nabavi said:
Welcome, back, Hopi!HopiSen said:Oh for God's sake. Nick. Nice or nasty, They're mad lefties, they're going to be massively unpopular, and all this is obvious. If this doesn't matter to you because you don't think winning elections is particularly important, perhaps you should reflect on the fact that it is only because Tony Blair and Gordon Brown thought otherwise that you were an MP at all.
It must be very hard to be a sane Labour supporter in current conditions. I don't think there's much you can do other than try to hold on until things improve, but that could be a long time.0 -
TBF to the Ruskies, the CIA via Charlie Wilson gave them hundreds of thousands of rifles/ammo/specialist anti-helo weapons. That the likes of Haqqani then turned on the US was just karma.
I saw an amazing first person intv [I Survived] with Jere Van Dyk from CBS who went from being a *friend* to Haqqani to being his hostage http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7705934-captiveJosiasJessop said:
Who said war against IS was impossible?isam said:
Well I would agree, but when I suggested Russia may soon be at war with IS (after the Sharm bomb) I was decried on here, people telling me war was impossible with ISJohnLilburne said:
It's different though. This is killing an enemy combatant in time of war.isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
As it happens, I believe it's possible for Russia to win against IS, at least conventionally.
They didn't win against the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, and the country turned into a meat grinder that killed many hundreds of thousands. The US and coalition did not 'win' in Iraq, despite many (hundreds of thousands according to some sources) of deaths and many billions spent.
Al Qaeda grew out of the Mujahideen, who learnt to fight against Russians on Afghanistan. Al Qaeda started fighting the Americans, who then invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. Fighters in Iraq formed the predecessors of ISIL/IS, who are helping destabilise several countries.
And so it will continue unless we find a way of stopping the Shia/Sunni conflicts and the radicalisation of so many youngsters.0 -
I suppose to comes down the question of whether we are actually at war with ISIS, in a legal sense.Plato_Says said:Judging from newspaper comments so far - most seem to think he deserved being scared shitless and then killed painfully over an extended period. Drone Death was too good for him.
taffys said:Has Corbyn actually said anything that's really controversial here? I'm sure many people would agree a trial, hypothetically, followed by imprisonment for life, would be the better option.
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You're quite right - I wasn't paying attention.isam said:
1 is £28 isnt it?antifrank said:TSE - I'd have gone for 6, maximising my potential winning. On the sums given, only 5 or 6 seem acceptable answers, providing average winnings of £36, as opposed to average winnings of £34 for 4, £32 for 3 and £30 for 1 and 2.
My answer might have been very different if there had been a lot more noughts on the end of the figures quoted. Then the question of minimum acceptable win becomes more important.0 -
Not me. As far as I am concerned, IS is a country, controlling territory, with "colonies" in Libya and Sinai, and expeditionary forces capable of bringing down Russian airliners and attacking British tourists in Tunisia. David Cameron has called for its destruction, although to date we don't seem to be taking appropriate action to effect that.isam said:
Well I would agree, but when I suggested Russia may soon be at war with IS (after the Sharm bomb) I was decried on here, people telling me war was impossible with ISJohnLilburne said:
It's different though. This is killing an enemy combatant in time of war.isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
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Long term winning is about taking the best value, not looking at short term best and worst case scenariosTheScreamingEagles said:
There's a 50/50 chance of my lowest return being £2! That's whyDavidL said:
Why, surely tales on 6 offers the best return on a 50:50 call?TheScreamingEagles said:Which gamble would PBers go for? I went option 4
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/665141539774078976
The cash out button being a prime example of people being fooled into taking the second approach0 -
Not sure there is a right answer. Isn't this a test to find out about a person's attitude to risk and reward. Answer 1 gives you a guaranteed £28 in the pocket.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a 50/50 chance of my lowest return being £2! That's whyDavidL said:
Why, surely tales on 6 offers the best return on a 50:50 call?TheScreamingEagles said:Which gamble would PBers go for? I went option 4
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/6651415397740789760 -
rottenborough.... Jihadi John declared war on us..and now it would seem he has gone... good riddance..the world is a slightly better place today0
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5 is marginally better than 6 under most models (diminishing marginal utility of money). The best case for (1) is that you only have YouGov's word for it that it is a fair coin...antifrank said:TSE - I'd have gone for 6, maximising my potential winning. On the sums given, only 5 or 6 seem acceptable answers, providing average winnings of £36, as opposed to average winnings of £34 for 4, £32 for 3 and £30 for 1 and 2.
What would people bite at in the classic Deal Or No Deal final showdown between 1p & £250k?
This is why you can't be an MP. "MINISTER THINKS £28 IS CHICKEN FEED"antifrank said:My answer might have been very different if there had been a lot more noughts on the end of the figures quoted. Then the question of minimum acceptable win becomes more important.
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75kTissue_Price said:
5 is marginally better than 6 under most models (diminishing marginal utility of money). The best case for (1) is that you only have YouGov's word for it that it is a fair coin...antifrank said:TSE - I'd have gone for 6, maximising my potential winning. On the sums given, only 5 or 6 seem acceptable answers, providing average winnings of £36, as opposed to average winnings of £34 for 4, £32 for 3 and £30 for 1 and 2.
My answer might have been very different if there had been a lot more noughts on the end of the figures quoted. Then the question of minimum acceptable win becomes more important.
What would people bite at in the classic Deal Or No Deal final showdown between 1p & £250k?0 -
Gamble No 5, shirley?TheScreamingEagles said:Which gamble would PBers go for? I went option 4
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/6651415397740789760 -
Not bizarre at all. The preferred choice should always be for trial. But if it not practical because of the effective state of war then this is the next best thing.isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
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I'm not sure if you can be technically *at war* with a state that isn't recognised.
Frankly, I'm not so picky - he was a monster and our responsibility to take out. That the US helped suits me just fine.rottenborough said:
I suppose to comes down the question of whether we are actually at war with ISIS, in a legal sense.Plato_Says said:Judging from newspaper comments so far - most seem to think he deserved being scared shitless and then killed painfully over an extended period. Drone Death was too good for him.
taffys said:Has Corbyn actually said anything that's really controversial here? I'm sure many people would agree a trial, hypothetically, followed by imprisonment for life, would be the better option.
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That's about normal, slightly on the higher side. But if they gave you the £75k and then asked you if you wanted to come back tomorrow to gamble it at 5/2 on red or black, would you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effectTheScreamingEagles said:
75kTissue_Price said:
5 is marginally better than 6 under most models (diminishing marginal utility of money). The best case for (1) is that you only have YouGov's word for it that it is a fair coin...antifrank said:TSE - I'd have gone for 6, maximising my potential winning. On the sums given, only 5 or 6 seem acceptable answers, providing average winnings of £36, as opposed to average winnings of £34 for 4, £32 for 3 and £30 for 1 and 2.
My answer might have been very different if there had been a lot more noughts on the end of the figures quoted. Then the question of minimum acceptable win becomes more important.
What would people bite at in the classic Deal Or No Deal final showdown between 1p & £250k?0 -
I'm not against what's happened. I don't see why a state of war doesn't exist between us and ISIS, but I've not seen anything to say that technically this is the case. Maybe I've missed it.Plato_Says said:I'm not sure if you can be technically *at war* with a state that isn't recognised.
Frankly, I'm not so picky - he was a monster and our responsibility to take out. That the US helped suits me just fine.rottenborough said:
I suppose to comes down the question of whether we are actually at war with ISIS, in a legal sense.Plato_Says said:Judging from newspaper comments so far - most seem to think he deserved being scared shitless and then killed painfully over an extended period. Drone Death was too good for him.
taffys said:Has Corbyn actually said anything that's really controversial here? I'm sure many people would agree a trial, hypothetically, followed by imprisonment for life, would be the better option.
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If they do go to war with IS, it won't be a conventional war. Russia didn't have the ability to win in Afghanistan in the 80s, and they sure as heck don't have the ability or manpower to do it at the moment.isam said:
Im just going by the reaction when I suggested Russia could be in full scale war w IS soon (so obv I think its is possible)JosiasJessop said:
Who said war against IS was impossible?isam said:
Well I would agree, but when I suggested Russia may soon be at war with IS (after the Sharm bomb) I was decried on here, people telling me war was impossible with ISJohnLilburne said:
It's different though. This is killing an enemy combatant in time of war.isam said:What I find bizarre is the same people who are happy for Enwazi to be taken out in this way would not support the death penalty if we captured him and found him guilty, as we have seen in the case of the Lee Rigby killers
As it happens, I believe it's possible for Russia to win against IS, at least conventionally.
They didn't win against the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, and the country turned into a meat grinder that killed many hundreds of thousands. The US and coalition did not 'win' in Iraq, despite many (hundreds of thousands according to some sources) of deaths and many billions spent.
Al Qaeda grew out of the Mujahideen, who learnt to fight against Russians on Afghanistan. Al Qaeda started fighting the Americans, who then invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. Fighters in Iraq formed the predecessors of ISIL/IS, who are helping destabilise several countries.
And so it will continue unless we find a way of stopping the Shia/Sunni conflicts and the radicalisation of so many youngsters.
(snip)
The sad thing is, neither does the west. Our military forces are poorly equipped to deal with this sort of warfare; I think it's next to impossible for a military force to win, especially whilst following the international conventions and rules of war.
Russia did 'win' (for a broad enough definition of win) in Chechnya, although as hundreds are still being killed each year it's clear that long-standing conflict's still warm.
Rather than put tens of thousands of young and poorly-trained conscripts into the field as they did in Afghanistan, expect the Russians to treat it more like Vietnam - a war by proxy (*). Encourage the Syrians and Iranians to use their forces against ISIS, and provide limited but useful support for those forces.
They'll not want to get drawn in too deeply; just as long as their interests are served and end-goals met. If they get 'revenge' for the airliner atrocity, all the better.
(*) Aside from a few special forces.0 -
NoTissue_Price said:
That's about normal, slightly on the higher side. But if they gave you the £75k and then asked you if you wanted to come back tomorrow to gamble it at 5/2 on red or black, would you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effectTheScreamingEagles said:
75kTissue_Price said:
5 is marginally better than 6 under most models (diminishing marginal utility of money). The best case for (1) is that you only have YouGov's word for it that it is a fair coin...antifrank said:TSE - I'd have gone for 6, maximising my potential winning. On the sums given, only 5 or 6 seem acceptable answers, providing average winnings of £36, as opposed to average winnings of £34 for 4, £32 for 3 and £30 for 1 and 2.
My answer might have been very different if there had been a lot more noughts on the end of the figures quoted. Then the question of minimum acceptable win becomes more important.
What would people bite at in the classic Deal Or No Deal final showdown between 1p & £250k?0 -
If the UK declares war on IS then we won't be in a position to complain if IS then attacks targets that are part of our war effort. So an IS bomb in a BAe Systems factory would be a legitimate act of war. Not a position I think we would want to get into.rottenborough said:
I'm not against what's happened. I don't see why a state of war doesn't exist between us and ISIS, but I've not seen anything to say that technically this is the case. Maybe I've missed it.Plato_Says said:I'm not sure if you can be technically *at war* with a state that isn't recognised.
Frankly, I'm not so picky - he was a monster and our responsibility to take out. That the US helped suits me just fine.rottenborough said:
I suppose to comes down the question of whether we are actually at war with ISIS, in a legal sense.Plato_Says said:Judging from newspaper comments so far - most seem to think he deserved being scared shitless and then killed painfully over an extended period. Drone Death was too good for him.
taffys said:Has Corbyn actually said anything that's really controversial here? I'm sure many people would agree a trial, hypothetically, followed by imprisonment for life, would be the better option.
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Do international laws and conventions even cover the situation with respect to IS? They're not a recognised state, but they're more than an insurgency.rottenborough said:
I'm not against what's happened. I don't see why a state of war doesn't exist between us and ISIS, but I've not seen anything to say that technically this is the case. Maybe I've missed it.Plato_Says said:I'm not sure if you can be technically *at war* with a state that isn't recognised.
Frankly, I'm not so picky - he was a monster and our responsibility to take out. That the US helped suits me just fine.rottenborough said:
I suppose to comes down the question of whether we are actually at war with ISIS, in a legal sense.Plato_Says said:Judging from newspaper comments so far - most seem to think he deserved being scared shitless and then killed painfully over an extended period. Drone Death was too good for him.
taffys said:Has Corbyn actually said anything that's really controversial here? I'm sure many people would agree a trial, hypothetically, followed by imprisonment for life, would be the better option.
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New Thread New Thread
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There is no correct answer to that kind of question, because the most logical answer depends on your circumstances. Suppose you absolutely, desperately, need to find £28, because if you don't something disagreeable will happen to you. In that case option 1 is the most rational, even though the expected value of it is just £28 rather than the £36 of options 5 or 6.TheScreamingEagles said:Which gamble would PBers go for? I went option 4
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Once upon a time, there was a safe welfare state called Sweden, where people rarely locked their doors.
Now, this country is a night-watchman state -- each man is on his own. When the Minister of Justice, Morgan Johansson, encourages breaking the law, it means opening the gates to anarchy. Mr. and Mrs. Swede have every reason to be worried, with the influx of 190,000 unskilled and unemployed migrants expected this year -- equivalent to 2% of Sweden's current population. The number is as if 6.4 million penniless migrants who did not speak English arrived in U.S. in one year, or 1.3 million in Britain.
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6865/sweden-anarchy
We are seeing civilization as we in Europe know it start to disintegrate, "before our very eyes" as that old comic Arthur Askey was prone to say.0 -
NutjobJosiasJessop said:
What utter, sheer sick rubbish.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
We need to check your programming, Eliza. Your boolean tables for right and wrong appear to have become corrupted.0 -
How do you know he was killedScott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
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The SNP are a bit better at the negotiation lark than the Tories I will admit.foxinsoxuk said:
Holyrood is sticking to the old deal. Some sensible people running recruitment there could fill all their vacancies quickly at the expense of England.malcolmg said:
They are all getting a substantial pay increase, 11%. Some may have to do some extra hours , just like most of the public do nowadays.Alistair said:
If you were offered a new contract that had a substantial pay cut would you be happy or sad about it?philiph said:
Are expectations of Doctors at an unrealistic level after the shambolic and generous deal GPs got from Labour?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
The concept of an NHS not working fully for 7 days a week is laughable and indefensible.
They are just greedy. Lots of people have to work extra hours unpaid and weekends etc without uplifts, and they have a fraction of the money that doctors earn.0 -
OK Arnold , I suppose you wouldJosiasJessop said:
Will Corbyn volunteer to be one of the people risking their lives to grab Jihadi John so that he can appear in court?Scott_P said:@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N
No?0
