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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN drops 2 in new Survation poll for UKIP donor Aaron Bank’s Leave.EU

For the first time in two months there’s an EU referendum poll which has OUT in the lead. It was carried out by Survation for the Aaron Bank Leave.EU organisation which is bidding to be the officially recognised referendum campaign against staying in the EU.

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney

First ..... again!

peter_from_putney

This poll can hardly come as any surprise after Cameron's incredibly modest, understated "demands" for our remaining in the EU. I'm expecting more of the same over the coming weeks.

Pong

Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.

tlg86

I'm inclined to trust the phone pollsters more - but I'd have thought what's more significant are the assumptions the pollsters maker about turnout.

felix

peter_from_putney said:

This poll can hardly come as any surprise after Cameron's incredibly modest, understated "demands" for our remaining in the EU. I'm expecting more of the same over the coming weeks.

I think 'modesty' like so many things lie in the eyes of the beholder. Cameron will decide the referendum result and the hyperbole of the Leavers will not help their cause.

GeoffM

Pong said:

Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.

Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...

Innocent_Abroad

Pong said:

Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.

Who else do you expect to wear a "Nigel Says No" T-Shirt? Page Three girls are more likely to wear one labelled "Say No to Nigel", surely...

peter_from_putney

GeoffM said:

Pong said:

Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.

Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...

Haven't we already seen this self same photograph on PB.com on at least two occasions previously?
Shades of the purple painted finger nails posting matching purple-edged ballot paper into a Bedford pillar box.

logical_song

GeoffM said:

Pong said:

Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.

Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...

How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?

felix

logical_song said:

GeoffM said:

Pong said:

Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.

Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...

How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?

I'd guess 15 geeks, 2 girls and not sure about the front one with the glasses - geek, lesbian?????

OldKingCole

peter_from_putney said:

First ..... again!

Are you in Dubai,an insomniac or just an early riser?

Innocent_Abroad

OldKingCole said:

peter_from_putney said:

First ..... again!

Are you in Dubai,an insomniac or just an early riser?

Or possibly all three...

RobD

peter_from_putney said:

First ..... again!

You win this battle, but the war continues....

logical_song

felix said:

logical_song said:

GeoffM said:

Pong said:

Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.

Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...

How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?

I'd guess 15 geeks, 2 girls and not sure about the front one with the glasses - geek, lesbian?????

It IS a Mike plot - he's the one at the back with an orange tie.
Alternatively those are the only young Kippers they could find -and so enthusiastic!

Casino_Royale

Comres is the definitive outlier.

Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.

peter_from_putney

RobD said:

peter_from_putney said:

First ..... again!

You win this battle, but the war continues....

"War" is a bit strong surely? Friendly joust perhaps.

foxinsoxuk

Excellent news from Burma:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

Comres is the definitive outlier.

Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.

ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.

They are the new gold standard.

^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.

MikeK

Increase in support for leaving the EU. 53% Leave to 47% Remain. Only one of Cameron’s reform demands match the public’s top 4 priorities:

http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=d31fc86423&e=50c0187e78

RobD

peter_from_putney said:

RobD said:

peter_from_putney said:

First ..... again!

You win this battle, but the war continues....

"War" is a bit strong surely? Friendly joust perhaps.

Paraphrasing General Martok regarding battles with his wife

TheScreamingEagles

I have a theory for the divergence between the phone and online polls.

At the election every phone poll underestimated UKIP and a majority of the online polls overestimated UKIP.

It could be that all over again but more amplified.

blackburn63

Earlier in the year I attended a 2 day meeting with senior kippers, amongst other guest speakers was the MD of Survation who explained how they questioned people in a slightly different way which is why ukip always polled higher with his firm. Interesting that Mr Banks is still using them.

blackburn63

peter_from_putney said:

RobD said:

peter_from_putney said:

First ..... again!

You win this battle, but the war continues....

"War" is a bit strong surely? Friendly joust perhaps.

Mr Putney, to most people yes, but people who have the temerity to oppose Dave it's war, this is personal.

MP_SE

felix said:

logical_song said:

GeoffM said:

Pong said:

Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.

Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...

How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?

I'd guess 15 geeks, 2 girls and not sure about the front one with the glasses - geek, lesbian?????

The one with glasses is a boy. I remember Farage thanked him on Twitter for helping in is south Thanet but could only remember his first name. Obviously made a great impression...

RobD

blackburn63 said:

peter_from_putney said:

RobD said:

peter_from_putney said:

First ..... again!

You win this battle, but the war continues....

"War" is a bit strong surely? Friendly joust perhaps.

Mr Putney, to most people yes, but people who have the temerity to oppose Dave it's war, this is personal.

LOL. Have to bring politics into it. It's a war for first, the most coveted prize PB has to offer.

Moses_

Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.

If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.

We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html

TheScreamingEagles

There has been a methodology change by Survation since their last poll.

They have polled Northern Ireland too. So it is truly a UK wide poll and not a Great Britain wide poll.

Alan Brooke will be delighted.

Edit apologies. Survation have done it before. Back in July. Didn't do it for September.

TheScreamingEagles

I guess this will be story of the day

@BBCBreaking: "Jihadi John" killed in US air strike in Syria, senior military source tells BBC, with "high degree of certainty" https://t.co/IcsUgFunUW

TheScreamingEagles

New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate

Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough

http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

I guess this will be story of the day

@BBCBreaking: "Jihadi John" killed in US air strike in Syria, senior military source tells BBC, with "high degree of certainty" https://t.co/IcsUgFunUW

Excellent.

TOPPING

Jihadi John killed...

peter_from_putney

***** Betting Post *****

Surprisingly, Ladbrokes is so far the only major bookie to offer banded odds on the percentage vote in favour of "Remain" in the forthcoming referendum.
Cameron's ultra weak and furthermore negotiable demands makes the whole exercise appear to be something of a joke.
Such "demands" appear likely to strengthen marginally the Leave vote to between 35% - 45% imho, with the Remain vote therefore coming in at between 55% - 65%. It is difficult to imagine that the result will be outside these parameters.
If I'm right, then by staking 60.87% at decimal odds of 4.5 on Laddies' 55% - 60% Remain band and the remaining 39.13% at odds of 7.0 on their 60% - 65% Remain band produces winning combined odds were either element to prove successful of 2.74 (or almost 7/4 in old money).

As ever, DYOR.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

I guess this will be story of the day

@BBCBreaking: "Jihadi John" killed in US air strike in Syria, senior military source tells BBC, with "high degree of certainty" https://t.co/IcsUgFunUW

Would finally be some good news for the West in Syria and take the attention from the Russians

Casino_Royale

Moses_ said:

Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.

If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.

We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html

Why would the African states want them back?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Comres is the definitive outlier.

Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.

ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.

They are the new gold standard.

^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.

I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.

HYUFD

The general election poll shows virtually the same result for the Tories, Labour and the LDs as May but UKIP are up 2 to 3%. That confirms my view that as the LDs made the biggest advances in the IDS years so UKIP will make the biggest advances in the Corbyn years

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

Moses_ said:

Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.

If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.

We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html

Why would the African states want them back?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Comres is the definitive outlier.

Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.

ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.

They are the new gold standard.

^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.

I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.

Ipsos Mori backs up that ComRes

Most interesting poll on this topic was yesterday.

@TSEofPB: New GQRR poll

Cameron succeeds in negotiating a better deal from the EU, he adds 10 points to remain

https://t.co/nWfTGgHydz

HYUFD

foxinsoxuk said:

Excellent news from Burma:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election

Looks like she has won over 80% of seats

Innocent_Abroad

Moses_ said:

Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.

If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.

We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html

Whatever the Telegraph or Mail say is the Gospel Truth & anyone who even begins to think otherwise is a vicious traitor who should be tortured to death. Eh, Moses? Eh?

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

Moses_ said:

Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.

If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.

We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html

Why would the African states want them back?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Comres is the definitive outlier.

Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.

ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.

They are the new gold standard.

^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.

I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.

Aid and access to European markets could be made contingent on taking them back

HYUFD

I see Modi indirectly backed Remain at his press conference yesterday saying 'If there is an entry point to the EU, that is the UK and that is good for us.' Although he also said `the inhabitants of this country are very intelligent and wise' and he would not offer direct advice, that seems to contradict recent Leave statements that India wants Brexit

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Moses_ said:

Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.

If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.

We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html

Why would the African states want them back?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Comres is the definitive outlier.

Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.

ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.

They are the new gold standard.

^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.

I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.

Aid and access to European markets could be made contingent on taking them back

To Africa!

peter_from_putney

MP_SE said:

felix said:

logical_song said:

GeoffM said:

Pong said:

Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.

Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...

How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?

I'd guess 15 geeks, 2 girls and not sure about the front one with the glasses - geek, lesbian?????

The one with glasses is a boy. I remember Farage thanked him on Twitter for helping in is south Thanet but could only remember his first name. Obviously made a great impression...

Don't most people know Nigel, and indeed Dave, mainly by their first names ..... nothing much has changed since the days of "Maggie".

supercool

Good news we need to get out as soon as possible

Join Leave.EU- https://leave.eu/en/user/register

Leave.EU facebook- https://www.facebook.com/leaveeuofficial

Scrapheap_as_was

Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi


Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Moses_ said:

Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.

If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.

We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html

Why would the African states want them back?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Comres is the definitive outlier.

Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.

ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.

They are the new gold standard.

^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.

I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.

Ipsos Mori backs up that ComRes

Most interesting poll on this topic was yesterday.

@TSEofPB: New GQRR poll

Cameron succeeds in negotiating a better deal from the EU, he adds 10 points to remain

https://t.co/nWfTGgHydz

They both find far fewer don't knows too. It looks like a sampling difference to me.

Doesn't mean it's wrong of course but it is more likely to be.

chestnut

TheScreamingEagles said:

New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate

Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough

http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC

Self selection internet polls.

What is the method for the (horrendously inaccurate last May) Survation poll here?

Innocent_Abroad

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi


Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.

God only knows what a pacifist who wears a red poppy thinks about anything...

chestnut

Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)

Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...

Moses_

Innocent_Abroad said:

Moses_ said:

Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.

If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.

We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html

Whatever the Telegraph or Mail say is the Gospel Truth & anyone who even begins to think otherwise is a vicious traitor who should be tortured to death. Eh, Moses? Eh?

Sorry that report and newspaper source was not too your liking. Perhaps this newspaper source and report type will be closer to your in depth and cutting edge debating skills.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/kitten-nearly-explodes-joy-jumps-6820899

chestnut

Belle Vue (Shropshire) result:
LAB - 47.8% (-28.7)
CON - 24.7% (+1.1)
LDEM - 21.0% (+21.0)
GRN - 6.6% (+6.6)

Two English by elections - Labour lose a quarter to a third of their vote in them.

DavidL

chestnut said:

Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)

Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...

They had another tricky seat last night as well according to Harry's excellent summaries. It will be interesting to see the full results.

TheScreamingEagles

Innocent_Abroad said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi


Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.

God only knows what a pacifist who wears a red poppy thinks about anything...

Well he said the death of Osama bin Laden was a tragedy, so he'll be gutted at this I suspect.

What do Corbyn and bin Laden have in common? Both Arsenal fans.

foxinsoxuk

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Excellent news from Burma:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election

Looks like she has won over 80% of seats

It is a great day for democracy, freedom and peaceful resistance. I did some work in Burma years ago, it is a gorgeous country with lovely people. I am delighted for them.

Plato_Says

A Tragedy!

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi


Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.

Scrapheap_as_was

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi


Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.

Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges
World's most sadistic terrorist reportedly killed. And I'm sitting here thinking "what will the party I'm a member of say about that".

TheScreamingEagles

chestnut said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate

Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough

http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC

Self selection internet polls.

What is the method for the (horrendously inaccurate last May) Survation poll here?

Online

http://survation.com/latest-eu-referendum-polling/

Plato_Says

Was the Labour candidate scandal ridden? That's a huge drop.

chestnut said:

Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)

Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...

DavidL

Emwazi is hardly a Bin Laden, more a painfully inadequate psychopath. But the world is not diminished by his passing.

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi


Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.

God only knows what a pacifist who wears a red poppy thinks about anything...

Well he said the death of Osama bin Laden was a tragedy, so he'll be gutted at this I suspect.

What do Corbyn and bin Laden have in common? Both Arsenal fans.

Bingo!

foxinsoxuk

chestnut said:

Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)

Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...

Dirty sleazy kippers on the slide too ;-)

Scrapheap_as_was

Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
Nice nugget from @FrankRGardner on #JihadiJohn before he left UK: he had bad breath and couldn't pull.

TOPPING

chestnut said:

Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)

Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...

you're obviously not understanding the dynamic.

With Jezza in charge, all the greens were supposed to come back to Lab sobbing with gratitude at the emergence of a true left wing party...

Plato_Says

Is this beginning a pattern or just coincidence?

chestnut said:

Belle Vue (Shropshire) result:
LAB - 47.8% (-28.7)
CON - 24.7% (+1.1)
LDEM - 21.0% (+21.0)
GRN - 6.6% (+6.6)

Two English by elections - Labour lose a quarter to a third of their vote in them.

TheScreamingEagles

Top trolling

@CanYouFlyBobby: You ok hun? @UK_CAGE

TheScreamingEagles

Huzzah for George Osborne and his brilliant stewardship of the economy

@George_Osborne: Delighted to announce the largest ever government sale of financial assets with £13bn mortgages sold at a gain for taxpayers

@George_Osborne: Another important step in clearing up the mess left by the financial crisis. Now returned over 85% of Northern Rock to private sector

MarqueeMark

chestnut said:

Belle Vue (Shropshire) result:
LAB - 47.8% (-28.7)
CON - 24.7% (+1.1)
LDEM - 21.0% (+21.0)
GRN - 6.6% (+6.6)

Two English by elections - Labour lose a quarter to a third of their vote in them.

Next May's elections are going to be fun at this rate....

Plato_Says

The Telegraph has the most poignant frontpage - a slideshow of the victims of this monster. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/#source=refresh

DavidL

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Excellent news from Burma:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election

Looks like she has won over 80% of seats

It is a great day for democracy, freedom and peaceful resistance. I did some work in Burma years ago, it is a gorgeous country with lovely people. I am delighted for them.

Can I apologise for getting a little carried away last night. I hope you didn't take offence. I also agree that none of today's young generation will get anything like the benefits of those approaching retirement now.

TheScreamingEagles

@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.

How convenient, lol.

NickPalmer

Another German poll showing Merkel's support recovering - which even I think is surprising at this point:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

My offer to AndyJS and Regiecide to take up with a £10 bet Andy's prediction that CDU support would soon drop below 30% remains open...

Roger

Clearly the polls are well beyond any kind of margin of error. It's not just phone v online. ICM's online taken at the same time is 16 points different

All we can do is wait for a polling analysis from one of the polling gurus.

SouthamObserver

Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.

Another economic illiterate. This is a capital asset that reflects public debt that was invested in Northern Rock. It won't affect Osborne's borrowing target at all and it really should not be used to finance current spending.

runnymede

I wonder how the PM and Remain campaign (which we can now consider the same thing, I think) will react if 'leave' starts to establish consistent leads?

Do they dial up Project Fear or will there be some shift from the PM's current policy of seeking only cosmetic concessions from the EU?

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate

Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough

http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC

No surprise there. Several of us on here were saying for ages that if you want to hide from the pollsters, it is very easy to do so these days... Basic question: do pollsters come up on mobiles as "number blocked"? If so, most won't answer. Even if it displays a number, many won't answer a number they don't recognise. Do pollsters leave a voice message and ask people to recontact them? Probably not is my guess, if they doing polls on the cheapest possible contact price.

And those who are signed up to panels are disproportionately politically aware.

SouthamObserver

The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.

foxinsoxuk

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Excellent news from Burma:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election

Looks like she has won over 80% of seats

It is a great day for democracy, freedom and peaceful resistance. I did some work in Burma years ago, it is a gorgeous country with lovely people. I am delighted for them.

Can I apologise for getting a little carried away last night. I hope you didn't take offence. I also agree that none of today's young generation will get anything like the benefits of those approaching retirement now.

No need, but thanks:

Basically Hunt has picked a fight unnessecarily. He needs to reopen talks without preconditions or threats of imposition. The Spectator has a good article on the issue:

http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/jeremy-hunt-is-spoiling-for-a-fight-hes-picked-the-wrong-one/

DavidL

SouthamObserver said:

Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.

So cynical Southam, so cynical.

OchEye

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Excellent news from Burma:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election

Looks like she has won over 80% of seats

25% of the seats are retained by the military, what I believe you mean is that she has won 80% of the 75%. Still is, hopefully, a majority and that the military stays in barracks.

NickPalmer

Colourful report (without a lot of strategic information, though) from the Kurdish-ISIS front:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/13/world/middleeast/sinjar-isis-iraq-syria.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&mtrref=www.nytimes.com&gwh=7A4CBADFFE8FD0AA4D5618F3C&_r=0

Innocent_Abroad

Moses_ said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Moses_ said:

Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.

If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.

We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html

Whatever the Telegraph or Mail say is the Gospel Truth & anyone who even begins to think otherwise is a vicious traitor who should be tortured to death. Eh, Moses? Eh?

Sorry that report and newspaper source was not too your liking. Perhaps this newspaper source and report type will be closer to your in depth and cutting edge debating skills.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/kitten-nearly-explodes-joy-jumps-6820899

I don't quote from newspapers on this site.

Plato_Says

SouthamObserver said:

The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.

Innocent_Abroad

SouthamObserver said:

The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.

Who else would you like to torture to death?

RobD

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.

So cynical Southam, so cynical.

And demonstrably a Tory.

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.

So cynical Southam, so cynical.

I know. I guess it's because I am a Red Tory. I need to spend less time in the real world and more on Twitter.

SquareRoot

I'd actually bet money that no one in the Labour party was told anything about Jihadi John on privy council terms. Its the price Labour are paying for Corbyn's beliefs.. I expect it will come out soon so as to damage Corbyn even more as a man who rightly cannot be trusted.

Cyclefree

NickPalmer said:

Another German poll showing Merkel's support recovering - which even I think is surprising at this point:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

My offer to AndyJS and Regiecide to take up with a £10 bet Andy's prediction that CDU support would soon drop below 30% remains open...

Thanks for your and others kind words last night. I am keeping myself busy so that I don't have time to brood. I just wish I got the results one way or the other.

Anyway I see that the government is thinking of adopting the very same policies on withdrawal of benefits from British people that we were debating here the other day. If true, doesn't it suggest that Cameron has already abandoned the first of his renegotiation demands about withdrawal of benefits from migrants, which would take a change in EU law?

MarqueeMark

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
Nice nugget from @FrankRGardner on #JihadiJohn before he left UK: he had bad breath and couldn't pull.

He's now got 72 virgins going "Er...no thanks mate...."

OldKingCole

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate

Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough

http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC

No surprise there. Several of us on here were saying for ages that if you want to hide from the pollsters, it is very easy to do so these days... Basic question: do pollsters come up on mobiles as "number blocked"? If so, most won't answer. Even if it displays a number, many won't answer a number they don't recognise. Do pollsters leave a voice message and ask people to recontact them? Probably not is my guess, if they doing polls on the cheapest possible contact price.

And those who are signed up to panels are disproportionately politically aware.

I wouldn’t at all mind being asked a genuine question on political matters, but all of the “opinion pollers” from whom I used to get calls were thinly disguised marketing exercises. And I got a lot of them.
Plus calls from “Microsoft’s Technical Department”, whose operatives offered to get inside my computer and remove malware. As a Mac user ......

So I signed up to caller display and unless it’s a local number, or one that we recognise my wife just ignore the calls. We listen 1571 afterwards and if it’s important a message will be left.

SouthamObserver

Innocent_Abroad said:

SouthamObserver said:

The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.

Who else would you like to torture to death?

Who said anything about torture? I'd have been happy for him to have looked his killer in the eye for a few seconds and to have known what was coming before a swift despatch. I know it makes me a bad person and, as an opponent of the death penalty, a complete hypocrite, but there you go.

NickPalmer

Question for our US experts: the Realclearpolitics polls show opinion about Obama conistently pretty evenly divided - typically about a 4% edge for "disapprove". By contrast, opinions of Congress are almost unanimously negative - 11% approve, 86% disapprove in one recent poll. What's going on here?

Should we expect a big anti-incumbent "throw the rascals out" vote, possibly even overcoming the notorious districting bias? But the GOP are doing quite well in local one-off elections, so it doesn't seem to be an anti-GOP feeling: is it just that people feel Congess is ineffective?

RobD

SquareRoot said:

I'd actually bet money that no one in the Labour party was told anything about Jihadi John on privy council terms. Its the price Labour are paying for Corbyn's beliefs.. I expect it will come out soon so as to damage Corbyn even more as a man who rightly cannot be trusted.

Would they need to be told? Would the privy council in general need to be told either?

Casino_Royale

peter_from_putney said:

***** Betting Post *****

Surprisingly, Ladbrokes is so far the only major bookie to offer banded odds on the percentage vote in favour of "Remain" in the forthcoming referendum.
Cameron's ultra weak and furthermore negotiable demands makes the whole exercise appear to be something of a joke.
Such "demands" appear likely to strengthen marginally the Leave vote to between 35% - 45% imho, with the Remain vote therefore coming in at between 55% - 65%. It is difficult to imagine that the result will be outside these parameters.
If I'm right, then by staking 60.87% at decimal odds of 4.5 on Laddies' 55% - 60% Remain band and the remaining 39.13% at odds of 7.0 on their 60% - 65% Remain band produces winning combined odds were either element to prove successful of 2.74 (or almost 7/4 in old money).

As ever, DYOR.

I think the Remain vote is very likely to be sub-60% but Shadsy looks like he's priced that market right to me, so I'm not playing for now.

If Leave do win, they will will narrowly, so the 45-50% Remain band might be better value to bet on if you think that the referendum will go the way of the BOO'ers.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.

Another economic illiterate. This is a capital asset that reflects public debt that was invested in Northern Rock. It won't affect Osborne's borrowing target at all and it really should not be used to finance current spending.

Just usual Tory Fan Boys lying and obfuscating with misleading financial data.

MarqueeMark

Innocent_Abroad said:

SouthamObserver said:

The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.

Who else would you like to torture to death?

He has a little list.

Mostly those who voted in Jeremy Corbyn, I'm guessing....

MarqueeMark

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.

Another economic illiterate. This is a capital asset that reflects public debt that was invested in Northern Rock. It won't affect Osborne's borrowing target at all and it really should not be used to finance current spending.

Just usual Tory Fan Boys lying and obfuscating with misleading financial data.

Like future oil revenues, malc?

SquareRoot

OldKingCole said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate

Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough

http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC

No surprise there. Several of us on here were saying for ages that if you want to hide from the pollsters, it is very easy to do so these days... Basic question: do pollsters come up on mobiles as "number blocked"? If so, most won't answer. Even if it displays a number, many won't answer a number they don't recognise. Do pollsters leave a voice message and ask people to recontact them? Probably not is my guess, if they doing polls on the cheapest possible contact price.

And those who are signed up to panels are disproportionately politically aware.

I wouldn’t at all mind being asked a genuine question on political matters, but all of the “opinion pollers” from whom I used to get calls were thinly disguised marketing exercises. And I got a lot of them.
Plus calls from “Microsoft’s Technical Department”, whose operatives offered to get inside my computer and remove malware. As a Mac user ......

So I signed up to caller display and unless it’s a local number, or one that we recognise my wife just ignore the calls. We listen 1571 afterwards and if it’s important a message will be left.

BT CALL GUARDIAN 8500 is even better. reduced nonsense calls to virtually zero

Casino_Royale

Cyclefree said:

NickPalmer said:

Another German poll showing Merkel's support recovering - which even I think is surprising at this point:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

My offer to AndyJS and Regiecide to take up with a £10 bet Andy's prediction that CDU support would soon drop below 30% remains open...

Thanks for your and others kind words last night. I am keeping myself busy so that I don't have time to brood. I just wish I got the results one way or the other.

Anyway I see that the government is thinking of adopting the very same policies on withdrawal of benefits from British people that we were debating here the other day. If true, doesn't it suggest that Cameron has already abandoned the first of his renegotiation demands about withdrawal of benefits from migrants, which would take a change in EU law?

Best wishes Cyclefree, my thoughts are with you.

Plato_Says

Just catching up on FPT - fingers crossed and best wishes.

PS And I thought your comments re doctors strike were bloody spot on.

Cyclefree said:

NickPalmer said:

Another German poll showing Merkel's support recovering - which even I think is surprising at this point:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

My offer to AndyJS and Regiecide to take up with a £10 bet Andy's prediction that CDU support would soon drop below 30% remains open...

Thanks for your and others kind words last night. I am keeping myself busy so that I don't have time to brood. I just wish I got the results one way or the other.

Anyway I see that the government is thinking of adopting the very same policies on withdrawal of benefits from British people that we were debating here the other day. If true, doesn't it suggest that Cameron has already abandoned the first of his renegotiation demands about withdrawal of benefits from migrants, which would take a change in EU law?