politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN drops 2 in new Survation poll for UKIP donor Aaron B
Comments
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Are expectations of Doctors at an unrealistic level after the shambolic and generous deal GPs got from Labour?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
The concept of an NHS not working fully for 7 days a week is laughable and indefensible.0 -
A very long time ago, didn't nurses go on strike? I seem to recall that not ending well for them either PR wise.Mortimer said:
My social media networks are FULL of junior doctors getting each other very excited about:philiph said:
Or to be Machiavellian:HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
What is the easiest way for a Tory government get the public on side for radical dismantling and privatisation of the NHS?
Get the public to turn against the greed of the well paid employees.
Play the long game.
a) Jeremy Hunt and how much they dislike him - frequently expressed in the highest of doctorly insults: that they don't think he is competant
b) How they're all hoping for the strike
c) How this is a cynical ploy played out by unpleasant Tories who want to sell the NHS to their friends.
How they can't see that b) is going to facilitate the argument for c) I just don't get. They're generally pretty bright people. Politics is not their strong point, though.
Not a single person who isn't a medic has responded. It is yet another public sector echo chamber event.
Public sympathy will evaporate on hour 1 of a strike.0 -
Very meaty set of articles about the social democrat/left-wing dilemmas all over Europe:
http://us2.campaign-archive2.com/?u=1b8c27812b5639c97eae8a815&id=232b675067&e=d50c4c3e1b0 -
I've just run two UK-wide EU referendum forecasts on 51% turnout.
Splits leave/remain are:
UKIP - 90/10
Con/UUP - 60/40
Lab - 30/70
LD - 20/80
SNP - 25/75
PC - 25/75
SDLP/SF - 10/90
DUP - 70/30
Others - 45/55
Scenario 1: similar to EU election of 2014. UKIP on 24% vote, Con on 27% and Lab on 23%, Greens on 7% and LDs on 9%. I get a Leave victory of 51.5% to 48.5%
Scenario 2: bigger two-party turnout. UKIP on 18%, Con on 33%, Lab on 27%, Green on 4%, and LD on 8.5%. Wafer-thin Leave lead of 50.08% to 49.93%.
On both scenarios I get a wafer thin Leave victory - the only thing that flips it is if I adjust the Conservative split.
For example, if I flip it to 40% Leave and 60% Remain then Remain wins instead by 56.5% to 43.5%.
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If you were offered a new contract that had a substantial pay cut would you be happy or sad about it?philiph said:
Are expectations of Doctors at an unrealistic level after the shambolic and generous deal GPs got from Labour?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
The concept of an NHS not working fully for 7 days a week is laughable and indefensible.0 -
Some of them can't work Saturdays and Sundays, as they have wedding photography businesses to run. Well, the leader of the Junior Doctors does. Can't miss out on working a weekend for £5K.philiph said:
Are expectations of Doctors at an unrealistic level after the shambolic and generous deal GPs got from Labour?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
The concept of an NHS not working fully for 7 days a week is laughable and indefensible.
Perhaps it's time for HMG to drop the ring fencing, and adopt the spending plan that Labour would have imposed on the NHS?0 -
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/6650878022128025600 -
Even George is desperate for a selfie with Nicolaantifrank said:Nicola SturgeonVerified account @NicolaSturgeon ·
It was a tough job, ladies, but someone had to do it #Scotbizawards
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTpd7TOXIAAjYq9.jpg
*mmph mmph mmph mmph*0 -
What do you get if turnout is 75%?Casino_Royale said:I've just run two UK-wide EU referendum forecasts on 51% turnout.
Splits leave/remain are:
UKIP - 90/10
Con/UUP - 60/40
Lab - 30/70
LD - 20/80
SNP - 25/75
PC - 25/75
SDLP/SF - 10/90
DUP - 70/30
Others - 45/55
Scenario 1: similar to EU election of 2014. UKIP on 24% vote, Con on 27% and Lab on 23%, Greens on 7% and LDs on 9%. I get a Leave victory of 51.5% to 48.5%
Scenario 2: bigger two-party turnout. UKIP on 18%, Con on 33%, Lab on 27%, Green on 4%, and LD on 8.5%. Wafer-thin Leave lead of 50.08% to 49.93%.
On both scenarios I get a wafer thin Leave victory - the only thing that flips it is if I adjust the Conservative split.
For example, if I flip it to 40% Leave and 60% Remain then Remain wins instead by 56.5% to 43.5%.0 -
I've had a pay cut before now. Never welcome, but you have the choice to walk if it is that bad.Alistair said:
If you were offered a new contract that had a substantial pay cut would you be happy or sad about it?philiph said:
Are expectations of Doctors at an unrealistic level after the shambolic and generous deal GPs got from Labour?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
The concept of an NHS not working fully for 7 days a week is laughable and indefensible.
I've worked weekends - still do sometimes. I've done 90 hour weeks, not had a full holiday allocation. I could have walked. My choice.
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So far this year I have had all of my contracts cut by between 15 and 30% - in one case 50%. There is a tightening right across the board in every profession I know that has anything to do with contracting for the public sector and equivalent or deeper cuts in the private sector as well.Alistair said:
If you were offered a new contract that had a substantial pay cut would you be happy or sad about it?philiph said:
Are expectations of Doctors at an unrealistic level after the shambolic and generous deal GPs got from Labour?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
The concept of an NHS not working fully for 7 days a week is laughable and indefensible.
Am I happy about it? No. Do I accept it? Yes. It is only those in the privileged position of public sector employment who seem to think that their wages should only ever go up.0 -
Scenario 3 - if I run the (original) splits on the exact GE voteshares for each party I get Leave at 47.57% and Remain at 52.43%
Flipping the Con split changes it to: Leave at 40.21% and Remain at 59.79%
This tells me that (a) it's very unlikely Remain will poll higher than 60% and (b) the David Cameron effect is all important.
If Cameron signals he might resign if it's a Leave, would that push more Con Leavers to Remain?0 -
I note (rank and file of the) Doctors are screaming and crying and generally making a huge noise whilst the police who are undergoing way harsher cuts are being far more stoic.0
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They are all getting a substantial pay increase, 11%. Some may have to do some extra hours , just like most of the public do nowadays.Alistair said:
If you were offered a new contract that had a substantial pay cut would you be happy or sad about it?philiph said:
Are expectations of Doctors at an unrealistic level after the shambolic and generous deal GPs got from Labour?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
The concept of an NHS not working fully for 7 days a week is laughable and indefensible.
They are just greedy. Lots of people have to work extra hours unpaid and weekends etc without uplifts, and they have a fraction of the money that doctors earn.0 -
Reduced pay How about this one..In the TV industry we used to be contracted to shoot one hour of TV Drama in 15 days...now it is down to 10.5 days..money is exactly the same per week but the contracts are much shorter...massive drop in income for most of the people employed there... maybe they should go on strike..unfortunately no one would notice.. Doctors going on strike will definitely cost some people their lives..0
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I haven't run that. I don't consider it plausible for turnout to top the GE of 66% - AV ref only managed 42%.antifrank said:
What do you get if turnout is 75%?Casino_Royale said:I've just run two UK-wide EU referendum forecasts on 51% turnout.
Splits leave/remain are:
UKIP - 90/10
Con/UUP - 60/40
Lab - 30/70
LD - 20/80
SNP - 25/75
PC - 25/75
SDLP/SF - 10/90
DUP - 70/30
Others - 45/55
Scenario 1: similar to EU election of 2014. UKIP on 24% vote, Con on 27% and Lab on 23%, Greens on 7% and LDs on 9%. I get a Leave victory of 51.5% to 48.5%
Scenario 2: bigger two-party turnout. UKIP on 18%, Con on 33%, Lab on 27%, Green on 4%, and LD on 8.5%. Wafer-thin Leave lead of 50.08% to 49.93%.
On both scenarios I get a wafer thin Leave victory - the only thing that flips it is if I adjust the Conservative split.
For example, if I flip it to 40% Leave and 60% Remain then Remain wins instead by 56.5% to 43.5%.
If it did, I think voteshares would be broadly similar to the GE - see scenario 3 - with perhaps a slight favouring of UKIP and lessening of Labour.0 -
Judge Malky passes his verdict.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
"She was drunk and wearing a short skirt. She should have been aware of the drugs slipped into her glass. As the young hussy was clearly asking for it, I find the Defendant 'Not Guilty'."0 -
Councillor who announced closure of public toilets fined for urinating in street
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11989201/South-Lanarkshire-Council-deputy-leader-Jackie-Burns-fined-for-urinating-in-street.html0 -
Do you factor in ages/turnout too?Casino_Royale said:
I've just run two UK-wide EU referendum forecasts on 51% turnout.
Splits leave/remain are:
UKIP - 90/10
Con/UUP - 60/40
Lab - 30/70
LD - 20/80
SNP - 25/75
PC - 25/75
SDLP/SF - 10/90
DUP - 70/30
Others - 45/55
Scenario 1: similar to EU election of 2014. UKIP on 24% vote, Con on 27% and Lab on 23%, Greens on 7% and LDs on 9%. I get a Leave victory of 51.5% to 48.5%
Scenario 2: bigger two-party turnout. UKIP on 18%, Con on 33%, Lab on 27%, Green on 4%, and LD on 8.5%. Wafer-thin Leave lead of 50.08% to 49.93%.
On both scenarios I get a wafer thin Leave victory - the only thing that flips it is if I adjust the Conservative split.
For example, if I flip it to 40% Leave and 60% Remain then Remain wins instead by 56.5% to 43.5%.0 -
Martin Kettle on the new politics:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/12/new-politics-old-politics-tribalism-labour-conservatives
"The party is increasingly the arena for an organisational battle between two opposed factions. The left faction around Corbyn is focused not so much on new politics or new ideas but simply on taking control of the party machinery. This is an entirely logical approach because, until that is achieved, it is harder to change policy or commitments.
The left’s priorities – and they are certainly the priorities of the Leninists Corbyn has brought in – are therefore to make procedural changes. Altering the rules for electing the leader to reduce the influence of MPs; strengthening the grip of the annual conference over policymaking; boosting the national executive at the expense of the shadow cabinet; clearing out opponents in the upper reaches of the party organisation; and, ultimately, deselecting centrist MPs and getting more leftwing, union-endorsed candidates in safe seats. Most Labour MPs oppose this process, for obvious reasons, but they prefer to stay quiet, which is also explicable."
Is it gauche to point out that I noted this a month ago?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/10/antifrank-says-corbyns-strategy-is-we-only-have-to-be-lucky-once/0 -
There base salary is being increased by 11% but their "normal" hours are being massively expanded to effectively eliminate overtime payments. Given that Junior Doctors already work at the limit (and beyond) of legal working hours there are no extra hours to take.malcolmg said:
They are all getting a substantial pay increase, 11%. Some may have to do some extra hours , just like most of the public do nowadays.
They are just greedy. Lots of people have to work extra hours unpaid and weekends etc without uplifts, and they have a fraction of the money that doctors earn.
It is a pay cut.0 -
That's not a selfie. Unless telekinesis is involved.malcolmg said:
Even George is desperate for a selfie with Nicolaantifrank said:Nicola SturgeonVerified account @NicolaSturgeon ·
It was a tough job, ladies, but someone had to do it #Scotbizawards
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTpd7TOXIAAjYq9.jpg
*mmph mmph mmph mmph*0 -
I'm in the No Sympathy camp on this one. Docs can't play the game both ways.Richard_Tyndall said:
So far this year I have had all of my contracts cut by between 15 and 30% - in one case 50%. There is a tightening right across the board in every profession I know that has anything to do with contracting for the public sector and equivalent or deeper cuts in the private sector as well.Alistair said:
If you were offered a new contract that had a substantial pay cut would you be happy or sad about it?philiph said:
Are expectations of Doctors at an unrealistic level after the shambolic and generous deal GPs got from Labour?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
The concept of an NHS not working fully for 7 days a week is laughable and indefensible.
Am I happy about it? No. Do I accept it? Yes. It is only those in the privileged position of public sector employment who seem to think that their wages should only ever go up.0 -
A large part of the rhetoric of those religiously attached to the NHS is that the people who work in it are 'angels', 'saints'.
Angels and saints don't fight over money.0 -
Nah. Especially as the word gauche is French for left.antifrank said:Martin Kettle on the new politics:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/12/new-politics-old-politics-tribalism-labour-conservatives
"The party is increasingly the arena for an organisational battle between two opposed factions. The left faction around Corbyn is focused not so much on new politics or new ideas but simply on taking control of the party machinery. This is an entirely logical approach because, until that is achieved, it is harder to change policy or commitments.
The left’s priorities – and they are certainly the priorities of the Leninists Corbyn has brought in – are therefore to make procedural changes. Altering the rules for electing the leader to reduce the influence of MPs; strengthening the grip of the annual conference over policymaking; boosting the national executive at the expense of the shadow cabinet; clearing out opponents in the upper reaches of the party organisation; and, ultimately, deselecting centrist MPs and getting more leftwing, union-endorsed candidates in safe seats. Most Labour MPs oppose this process, for obvious reasons, but they prefer to stay quiet, which is also explicable."
Is it gauche to point out that I noted this a month ago?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/10/antifrank-says-corbyns-strategy-is-we-only-have-to-be-lucky-once/0 -
What utter, sheer sick rubbish.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
We need to check your programming, Eliza. Your boolean tables for right and wrong appear to have become corrupted.0 -
Antifrank - just run another one for you at 70% turnout with a few tweaks as above. I get about 55.5 Remain and 44.5% Leave. If the Tories split 50/50.Casino_Royale said:
I haven't run that. I don't consider it plausible for turnout to top the GE of 66% - AV ref only managed 42%.antifrank said:
What do you get if turnout is 75%?Casino_Royale said:I've just run two UK-wide EU referendum forecasts on 51% turnout.
Splits leave/remain are:
UKIP - 90/10
Con/UUP - 60/40
Lab - 30/70
LD - 20/80
SNP - 25/75
PC - 25/75
SDLP/SF - 10/90
DUP - 70/30
Others - 45/55
Scenario 1: similar to EU election of 2014. UKIP on 24% vote, Con on 27% and Lab on 23%, Greens on 7% and LDs on 9%. I get a Leave victory of 51.5% to 48.5%
Scenario 2: bigger two-party turnout. UKIP on 18%, Con on 33%, Lab on 27%, Green on 4%, and LD on 8.5%. Wafer-thin Leave lead of 50.08% to 49.93%.
On both scenarios I get a wafer thin Leave victory - the only thing that flips it is if I adjust the Conservative split.
For example, if I flip it to 40% Leave and 60% Remain then Remain wins instead by 56.5% to 43.5%.
If it did, I think voteshares would be broadly similar to the GE - see scenario 3 - with perhaps a slight favouring of UKIP and lessening of Labour.
Why? Basically, on that sort of turnout, I'm assuming a huge ABC turnout in the Home Counties and middle England for Remain on the back of Cameron's recommendation that swamps Leave Tories elsewhere0 -
Boo Hoo.Alistair said:
There base salary is being increased by 11% but their "normal" hours are being massively expanded to effectively eliminate overtime payments. Given that Junior Doctors already work at the limit (and beyond) of legal working hours there are no extra hours to take.malcolmg said:
They are all getting a substantial pay increase, 11%. Some may have to do some extra hours , just like most of the public do nowadays.
They are just greedy. Lots of people have to work extra hours unpaid and weekends etc without uplifts, and they have a fraction of the money that doctors earn.
It is a pay cut.
How about they're asked to work fewer hours, for lower salaries? Somehow, I don't think they'd like that.
Most Junior Doctors become filthy rich doctors, with salaries and perks the majority of taxpayers and patients can never achieve in their wildest dreams.0 -
Yes, the idiocy begins when you slime your way onto a thread. It'll stop when you slither back whence you came.Dair said:
And so the idiocy begins.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/6650878022128025600 -
Any time.Pulpstar said:
ThanksJosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
0 -
Oh for God's sake. Nick. Nice or nasty, They're mad lefties, they're going to be massively unpopular, and all this is obvious. If this doesn't matter to you because you don't think winning elections is particularly important, perhaps you should reflect on the fact that it is only because Tony Blair and Gordon Brown thought otherwise that you were an MP at all.NickPalmer said:
Applies to him too. Has he said anything objectionable since he was appointed? I don't like the nasty personal style of his past comments, but so long as he cuts them out now, I don't insist on retrospective vetting. But it's important to insist on that - as McDonnell wryly says, "Jeremy is trying to teach me to be a nicer person" :-).Cyclefree said:
Nuanced statement there Nick - "since they were appointed". Carefully excludes his key advisor - suspended from Labour - but in whom Corbyn still has confidence.
In any party shift of position on the spectrum, you're going to get people who were previously harsh critics to revise their view, and people who were previously supporters to express vehement and sometimes personal opposition, like Southam. It's as pointless to blame Fisher for being previously critical of Labour as it is to be blame Southam for being previously supportive.0 -
Blinking hell, she's on the government side this time. Junior Doctors take note
Sarah Wollaston, a former GP who chairs the Commons Health Select Committee, warns patients could be at risk if full walkout goes ahead
http://bit.ly/1WW4lPr0 -
I'm expecting a high turnout for this referendum unless it is obviously going to be clearcut (either way).Casino_Royale said:
I haven't run that. I don't consider it plausible for turnout to top the GE of 66% - AV ref only managed 42%.antifrank said:
What do you get if turnout is 75%?Casino_Royale said:I've just run two UK-wide EU referendum forecasts on 51% turnout.
Splits leave/remain are:
UKIP - 90/10
Con/UUP - 60/40
Lab - 30/70
LD - 20/80
SNP - 25/75
PC - 25/75
SDLP/SF - 10/90
DUP - 70/30
Others - 45/55
Scenario 1: similar to EU election of 2014. UKIP on 24% vote, Con on 27% and Lab on 23%, Greens on 7% and LDs on 9%. I get a Leave victory of 51.5% to 48.5%
Scenario 2: bigger two-party turnout. UKIP on 18%, Con on 33%, Lab on 27%, Green on 4%, and LD on 8.5%. Wafer-thin Leave lead of 50.08% to 49.93%.
On both scenarios I get a wafer thin Leave victory - the only thing that flips it is if I adjust the Conservative split.
For example, if I flip it to 40% Leave and 60% Remain then Remain wins instead by 56.5% to 43.5%.
If it did, I think voteshares would be broadly similar to the GE - see scenario 3 - with perhaps a slight favouring of UKIP and lessening of Labour.
0 -
No, I'm just playing with numbers for now. I'm assuming the EU ref will be somewhere between a EU parliamentary election turnout/result and a general election.Plato_Says said:Do you factor in ages/turnout too?
Casino_Royale said:I've just run two UK-wide EU referendum forecasts on 51% turnout.
Splits leave/remain are:
UKIP - 90/10
Con/UUP - 60/40
Lab - 30/70
LD - 20/80
SNP - 25/75
PC - 25/75
SDLP/SF - 10/90
DUP - 70/30
Others - 45/55
Scenario 1: similar to EU election of 2014. UKIP on 24% vote, Con on 27% and Lab on 23%, Greens on 7% and LDs on 9%. I get a Leave victory of 51.5% to 48.5%
Scenario 2: bigger two-party turnout. UKIP on 18%, Con on 33%, Lab on 27%, Green on 4%, and LD on 8.5%. Wafer-thin Leave lead of 50.08% to 49.93%.
On both scenarios I get a wafer thin Leave victory - the only thing that flips it is if I adjust the Conservative split.
For example, if I flip it to 40% Leave and 60% Remain then Remain wins instead by 56.5% to 43.5%.
I don't think it will hit indyref levels.
I think that puts broadly natural filters on turnout/age. High Remain turnout in London and the South East. High Leave on the eastern seaboard and south-west.0 -
@MichaelLCrick: Jeremy Corbyn won't try to change leadership rules at Labour NEC on Tues, tho' current rules unclear & will have to be clarified long term0
-
Dr Wollaston MP.
"I think the BMA are being rather misleading here, because the new contract proposals will actually reduce the maximum hours. So the argument that it is unsafe because people will be treated by tired doctors just doesn't hold weight, I'm afraid.
"Even if they give this notice, they know the NHS is under great pressure.
"To have three days where effectively we are cancelling all routine procedures, the kind of procedures that consultants undertake – for example, cardiac catheterisations for people who are having a heart attack – how are consultants going to be able to get on with that sort of really important work?"0 -
Holyrood is sticking to the old deal. Some sensible people running recruitment there could fill all their vacancies quickly at the expense of England.malcolmg said:
They are all getting a substantial pay increase, 11%. Some may have to do some extra hours , just like most of the public do nowadays.Alistair said:
If you were offered a new contract that had a substantial pay cut would you be happy or sad about it?philiph said:
Are expectations of Doctors at an unrealistic level after the shambolic and generous deal GPs got from Labour?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
The concept of an NHS not working fully for 7 days a week is laughable and indefensible.
They are just greedy. Lots of people have to work extra hours unpaid and weekends etc without uplifts, and they have a fraction of the money that doctors earn.0 -
Amazing, so jeremy and John have only just met after all these years.....NickPalmer said:
Applies to him too. Has he said anything objectionable since he was appointed? I don't like the nasty personal style of his past comments, but so long as he cuts them out now, I don't insist on retrospective vetting. But it's important to insist on that - as McDonnell wryly says, "Jeremy is trying to teach me to be a nicer person" :-).Cyclefree said:
Nuanced statement there Nick - "since they were appointed". Carefully excludes his key advisor - suspended from Labour - but in whom Corbyn still has confidence.
In any party shift of position on the spectrum, you're going to get people who were previously harsh critics to revise their view, and people who were previously supporters to express vehement and sometimes personal opposition, like Southam. It's as pointless to blame Fisher for being previously critical of Labour as it is to be blame Southam for being previously supportive.0 -
Sky reporting we're 33/35 high income countries for still births. I really don't see what the NHS has so much to smug about.0
-
My concern for the politics of this junior doctor strike is that there seems to have been little preparation by the Govt ahead of this show down. The NHS is sadly regarded as a religion by most voters and therefore the doctors can play that card many times until perceptions change. How many delayed ops or consultations will there be arising from the strikes? Statistically we could be talking about hundreds of unnecessary deaths caused by later diagnosis, treatment and action. A hidden number of graves that statisticians may eventually unravel many years later.0
-
So you're saying NHS doctors are basically murderers?Richard_Tyndall said:
So what you are saying is that because they will not negotiate if Hunt has preconditions, they would rather not negotiate at all and have him simply impose the changes which they could otherwise have mitigated through negotiation. And in the meantime they will let a few patients die to prove a point.foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
I am sorry I never realised our doctors were so fecking stupid.0 -
Clearly an NHS atheist.Plato_Says said:Sky reporting we're 33/35 high income countries for still births. I really don't see what the NHS has so much to smug about.
0 -
'Envy of the World'.Plato_Says said:Sky reporting we're 33/35 high income countries for still births. I really don't see what the NHS has so much to smug about.
0 -
Should I take this bet ?
@WillHillBet: Will David Warner go on to break Brian Lara's 400* Test record score? We're 5/1 he does it.0 -
It'll be interesting to see what the experts think the cause of this is: is it problems with the way pregnant women are handled by the NHS, or lifestyle issues, a.n.other issue or a combination?Plato_Says said:Sky reporting we're 33/35 high income countries for still births. I really don't see what the NHS has so much to smug about.
0 -
The usually-excellent Dr Fox used to say on here that no patients would suffer, until he was slapped down a little for it.TCPoliticalBetting said:My concern for the politics of this junior doctor strike is that there seems to have been little preparation by the Govt ahead of this show down. The NHS is sadly regarded as a religion by most voters and therefore the doctors can play that card many times until perceptions change. How many delayed ops or consultations will there be arising from the strikes? Statistically we could be talking about hundreds of unnecessary deaths caused by later diagnosis, treatment and action. A hidden number of graves that statisticians may eventually unravel many years later.
Let's see how the public react to the strikes. I'm not sure all their sympathy will be with the doctors ...0 -
JosiasJessop said:
What utter, sheer sick rubbish.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
We need to check your programming, Eliza. Your boolean tables for right and wrong appear to have become corrupted.
I've noticed quite a few cases of women sexually abusing other women, or girls, over the past couple of years. I don't whether that's something that's becoming more widespread in our society, or simply down to a greater readiness to prosecute (not too long ago, it was probably thought impossible for such a thing to happen).JosiasJessop said:
What utter, sheer sick rubbish.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
We need to check your programming, Eliza. Your boolean tables for right and wrong appear to have become corrupted.0 -
ha ha - love it - when will NPXMP realise it's not only the baby eaters who think he's completely lost the plot since the voters gave him the boot for a second time!HopiSen said:
Oh for God's sake. Nick. Nice or nasty, They're mad lefties, they're going to be massively unpopular, and all this is obvious. If this doesn't matter to you because you don't think winning elections is particularly important, perhaps you should reflect on the fact that it is only because Tony Blair and Gordon Brown thought otherwise that you were an MP at all.NickPalmer said:
Applies to him too. Has he said anything objectionable since he was appointed? I don't like the nasty personal style of his past comments, but so long as he cuts them out now, I don't insist on retrospective vetting. But it's important to insist on that - as McDonnell wryly says, "Jeremy is trying to teach me to be a nicer person" :-).Cyclefree said:
Nuanced statement there Nick - "since they were appointed". Carefully excludes his key advisor - suspended from Labour - but in whom Corbyn still has confidence.
In any party shift of position on the spectrum, you're going to get people who were previously harsh critics to revise their view, and people who were previously supporters to express vehement and sometimes personal opposition, like Southam. It's as pointless to blame Fisher for being previously critical of Labour as it is to be blame Southam for being previously supportive.0 -
I don't recall ever saying no patient would suffer.JosiasJessop said:
The usually-excellent Dr Fox used to say on here that no patients would suffer, until he was slapped down a little for it.TCPoliticalBetting said:My concern for the politics of this junior doctor strike is that there seems to have been little preparation by the Govt ahead of this show down. The NHS is sadly regarded as a religion by most voters and therefore the doctors can play that card many times until perceptions change. How many delayed ops or consultations will there be arising from the strikes? Statistically we could be talking about hundreds of unnecessary deaths caused by later diagnosis, treatment and action. A hidden number of graves that statisticians may eventually unravel many years later.
Let's see how the public react to the strikes. I'm not sure all their sympathy will be with the doctors ...
What I did say is that more would suffer from the long term damage to juniors training and resultant unfilled posts from the new contract. We have a lot of vacancies in the East Midlands.0 -
True enough. Sport is wonderful. But it does rather lack opportunities to spoil lovely ladies, such as myselfHurstLlama said:
Or sport, Mrs Free. Lots of good wholesome games of rugger.Cyclefree said:
More shagging, less shooting.Casino_Royale said:
Young men are pumped full of hormones: they are at the peak of physical fitness and aggression, bot physical and sexual. It gets worse if they are in groups where they act as a pack.Scrapheap_as_was said:Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
Nice nugget from @FrankRGardner on #JihadiJohn before he left UK: he had bad breath and couldn't pull.
No real team or competitive sport, precious few jobs and very little opportunity to meet women in the middle-east.
What else is there for them?
Edit: i recognise the UK is different, but if isolated culturally, a lot of those same factors still apply.
0 -
My guess about general perceptions among the public is;JosiasJessop said:
The usually-excellent Dr Fox used to say on here that no patients would suffer, until he was slapped down a little for it.TCPoliticalBetting said:My concern for the politics of this junior doctor strike is that there seems to have been little preparation by the Govt ahead of this show down. The NHS is sadly regarded as a religion by most voters and therefore the doctors can play that card many times until perceptions change. How many delayed ops or consultations will there be arising from the strikes? Statistically we could be talking about hundreds of unnecessary deaths caused by later diagnosis, treatment and action. A hidden number of graves that statisticians may eventually unravel many years later.
Let's see how the public react to the strikes. I'm not sure all their sympathy will be with the doctors ...
a) Tax credit recipients = hard working poor
b) Doctors = well paid
How close these perceptions are to the truth doesn't really matter. Perception prevails as we've seen with (a).
0 -
My memory is that you did say exactly that - both myself and Ms Free jumped on you for it.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't recall ever saying no patient would suffer.JosiasJessop said:
The usually-excellent Dr Fox used to say on here that no patients would suffer, until he was slapped down a little for it.TCPoliticalBetting said:My concern for the politics of this junior doctor strike is that there seems to have been little preparation by the Govt ahead of this show down. The NHS is sadly regarded as a religion by most voters and therefore the doctors can play that card many times until perceptions change. How many delayed ops or consultations will there be arising from the strikes? Statistically we could be talking about hundreds of unnecessary deaths caused by later diagnosis, treatment and action. A hidden number of graves that statisticians may eventually unravel many years later.
Let's see how the public react to the strikes. I'm not sure all their sympathy will be with the doctors ...
What I did say is that more would suffer from the long term damage to juniors training and resultant unfilled posts from the new contract. We have a lot of vacancies in the East Midlands.
Leaving that to one side: what would you do to restructure doctor's pay and training to ensure that we have enough doctors working safely ?0 -
DR FOX..So you agree that some patients will suffer and some may die because the Doctors are willfully withdrawing their services..in order to get more money..Rightly or wrongly that is going to generate some great headlines when the first deaths begin to occur... and they will..What Loony is in charge of the BMA ..0
-
What Loony is in charge of the BMA ..
I think it was Ken Clarke who said on QT that the BMA were by far the most militant worker representatives he ever had to deal with.0 -
I assume it is the Head of Operations...richardDodd said:DR FOX..So you agree that some patients will suffer and some may die because the Doctors are willfully withdrawing their services..in order to get more money..Rightly or wrongly that is going to generate some great headlines when the first deaths begin to occur... and they will..What Loony is in charge of the BMA ..
0 -
I am reading that the Peshmerga have effectively sliced ISIS into two pieces. Are we looking at the beginning of the end game...???
(craves Yokel comment...)0 -
philiph..Soon to be Head of Cancelled Operations...0
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That would take some thought, so not a quick answer, and I have patients booked this afternoon (and working all day tommorow too) so have to get going shortly.JosiasJessop said:
My memory is that you did say exactly that - both myself and Ms Free jumped on you for it.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't recall ever saying no patient would suffer.JosiasJessop said:
The usually-excellent Dr Fox used to say on here that no patients would suffer, until he was slapped down a little for it.TCPoliticalBetting said:My concern for the politics of this junior doctor strike is that there seems to have been little preparation by the Govt ahead of this show down. The NHS is sadly regarded as a religion by most voters and therefore the doctors can play that card many times until perceptions change. How many delayed ops or consultations will there be arising from the strikes? Statistically we could be talking about hundreds of unnecessary deaths caused by later diagnosis, treatment and action. A hidden number of graves that statisticians may eventually unravel many years later.
Let's see how the public react to the strikes. I'm not sure all their sympathy will be with the doctors ...
What I did say is that more would suffer from the long term damage to juniors training and resultant unfilled posts from the new contract. We have a lot of vacancies in the East Midlands.
Leaving that to one side: what would you do to restructure doctor's pay and training to ensure that we have enough doctors working safely ?
But pissing off the entire workforce (nurses are suspecting that their unsocial hours payments are next for the chop) is not a good way to get staff positively engaged in all the real issues facing the NHS in the UK. All training junior Doctors posts in the UK are in the NHS. The private sector does not train.
0 -
I think you should use the Euro 2014 splits, the GE question is irrelevant to all but lemming followers of their partyCasino_Royale said:Scenario 3 - if I run the (original) splits on the exact GE voteshares for each party I get Leave at 47.57% and Remain at 52.43%
Flipping the Con split changes it to: Leave at 40.21% and Remain at 59.79%
This tells me that (a) it's very unlikely Remain will poll higher than 60% and (b) the David Cameron effect is all important.
If Cameron signals he might resign if it's a Leave, would that push more Con Leavers to Remain?0 -
Leaving aside LuckyGuy's claims about Russian 'victory' over ISIS in Syria, there's been some success or the Kurds and the US in Iraq:taffys said:I am reading that the Peshmerga have effectively sliced ISIS into two pieces. Are we looking at the beginning of the end game...???
(craves Yokel comment...)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/34806556
ISIS needs tackling in both Syria and Iraq concurrently. Like a balloon, if they're squeezed in one country and not the other, they'll just retreat into the other country. The only way of 'defeating'(*) them is to give them no safe haven in those countries.
(*) Not that I'm sure what a defeat of ISIS will be like. It's an ideology, and it will just reappear to destablise another country such as Yemen.0 -
JJ Defeating ISIS will be akin to trying to cage a fart..the bad smell will just drift away..0
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I fear we have barely begun with the crisis the NHS is facing over the next few years.foxinsoxuk said:
That would take some thought, so not a quick answer, and I have patients booked this afternoon (and working all day tommorow too) so have to get going shortly.JosiasJessop said:
My memory is that you did say exactly that - both myself and Ms Free jumped on you for it.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't recall ever saying no patient would suffer.JosiasJessop said:
The usually-excellent Dr Fox used to say on here that no patients would suffer, until he was slapped down a little for it.TCPoliticalBetting said:My concern for the politics of this junior doctor strike is that there seems to have been little preparation by the Govt ahead of this show down. The NHS is sadly regarded as a religion by most voters and therefore the doctors can play that card many times until perceptions change. How many delayed ops or consultations will there be arising from the strikes? Statistically we could be talking about hundreds of unnecessary deaths caused by later diagnosis, treatment and action. A hidden number of graves that statisticians may eventually unravel many years later.
Let's see how the public react to the strikes. I'm not sure all their sympathy will be with the doctors ...
What I did say is that more would suffer from the long term damage to juniors training and resultant unfilled posts from the new contract. We have a lot of vacancies in the East Midlands.
Leaving that to one side: what would you do to restructure doctor's pay and training to ensure that we have enough doctors working safely ?
But pissing off the entire workforce (nurses are suspecting that their unsocial hours payments are next for the chop) is not a good way to get staff positively engaged in all the real issues facing the NHS in the UK. All training junior Doctors posts in the UK are in the NHS. The private sector does not train.0 -
It wasn't rape was it though? She consented to have sex with the other personwatford30 said:
Judge Malky passes his verdict.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
"She was drunk and wearing a short skirt. She should have been aware of the drugs slipped into her glass. As the young hussy was clearly asking for it, I find the Defendant 'Not Guilty'."
If a man for some reason made a woman wear a blindfold each time they "had sex" and used a vibrator rather than his own dick, would that be a criminal offence?
0 -
I don’t think many NHS staff oppose 7 day working in principle; they just don’t see why their wages should be reduced to bring it in. And doing so will not be cheap.foxinsoxuk said:
That would take some thought, so not a quick answer, and I have patients booked this afternoon (and working all day tommorow too) so have to get going shortly.JosiasJessop said:
My memory is that you did say exactly that - both myself and Ms Free jumped on you for it.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't recall ever saying no patient would suffer.JosiasJessop said:
The usually-excellent Dr Fox used to say on here that no patients would suffer, until he was slapped down a little for it.TCPoliticalBetting said:My concern for the politics of this junior doctor strike is that there seems to have been little preparation by the Govt ahead of this show down. The NHS is sadly regarded as a religion by most voters and therefore the doctors can play that card many times until perceptions change. How many delayed ops or consultations will there be arising from the strikes? Statistically we could be talking about hundreds of unnecessary deaths caused by later diagnosis, treatment and action. A hidden number of graves that statisticians may eventually unravel many years later.
Let's see how the public react to the strikes. I'm not sure all their sympathy will be with the doctors ...
What I did say is that more would suffer from the long term damage to juniors training and resultant unfilled posts from the new contract. We have a lot of vacancies in the East Midlands.
Leaving that to one side: what would you do to restructure doctor's pay and training to ensure that we have enough doctors working safely ?
But pissing off the entire workforce (nurses are suspecting that their unsocial hours payments are next for the chop) is not a good way to get staff positively engaged in all the real issues facing the NHS in the UK. All training junior Doctors posts in the UK are in the NHS. The private sector does not train.0 -
Then Leave win, unless Conservative supporters break quite clearly for Remain.isam said:
I think you should use the Euro 2014 splits, the GE question is irrelevant to all but lemming followers of their partyCasino_Royale said:Scenario 3 - if I run the (original) splits on the exact GE voteshares for each party I get Leave at 47.57% and Remain at 52.43%
Flipping the Con split changes it to: Leave at 40.21% and Remain at 59.79%
This tells me that (a) it's very unlikely Remain will poll higher than 60% and (b) the David Cameron effect is all important.
If Cameron signals he might resign if it's a Leave, would that push more Con Leavers to Remain?0 -
OKC No problem with the extra cost...ust ask the taxpayers to pay more....then wait for the screaming to begin..0
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Interesting positioning that I agree entirely with http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3316883/Killing-barbaric-murderer-Jihadi-John-act-self-defence-Britain-worked-hand-glove-forces-ahead-drone-strike-says-Cameron.html0
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Seems to be that the 2014 Euros are the best proxy for the referendum... adjusting for turnout may swing it back towards REMAIN I guessCasino_Royale said:
Then Leave win, unless Conservative supporters break quite clearly for Remain.isam said:
I think you should use the Euro 2014 splits, the GE question is irrelevant to all but lemming followers of their partyCasino_Royale said:Scenario 3 - if I run the (original) splits on the exact GE voteshares for each party I get Leave at 47.57% and Remain at 52.43%
Flipping the Con split changes it to: Leave at 40.21% and Remain at 59.79%
This tells me that (a) it's very unlikely Remain will poll higher than 60% and (b) the David Cameron effect is all important.
If Cameron signals he might resign if it's a Leave, would that push more Con Leavers to Remain?0 -
UKPR's Anthony Wells on the study:TheScreamingEagles said:New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate
Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough
http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9544#respond0 -
''Interesting positioning that I agree entirely with''
And the view of her majesty's official opposition is......???????????????????????????0 -
If it was M/F, it would amount to rape by deception.isam said:
It wasn't rape was it though? She consented to have sex with the other personwatford30 said:
Judge Malky passes his verdict.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
"She was drunk and wearing a short skirt. She should have been aware of the drugs slipped into her glass. As the young hussy was clearly asking for it, I find the Defendant 'Not Guilty'."
If a man for some reason made a woman wear a blindfold each time they "had sex" and used a vibrator rather than his own dick, would that be a criminal offence?0 -
If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.Pong said:
So you're saying NHS doctors are basically murderers?Richard_Tyndall said:
So what you are saying is that because they will not negotiate if Hunt has preconditions, they would rather not negotiate at all and have him simply impose the changes which they could otherwise have mitigated through negotiation. And in the meantime they will let a few patients die to prove a point.foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy to argue about it later.HurstLlama said:@Foxinsox
"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."
No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.
Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.
1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc
I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.
I am sorry I never realised our doctors were so fecking stupid.0 -
I don't get it.. someone consented to have sex, the other person DIDNT have sex with them.. and that's rape?Sean_F said:
If it was M/F, it would amount to rape by deception.isam said:
It wasn't rape was it though? She consented to have sex with the other personwatford30 said:
Judge Malky passes his verdict.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
"She was drunk and wearing a short skirt. She should have been aware of the drugs slipped into her glass. As the young hussy was clearly asking for it, I find the Defendant 'Not Guilty'."
If a man for some reason made a woman wear a blindfold each time they "had sex" and used a vibrator rather than his own dick, would that be a criminal offence?0 -
''If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.''
Should medical courses in the UK should come with more strings attached???0 -
He predicted a hung parliament in May IIRC.Theuniondivvie said:
Well..Roger said:Clearly the polls are well beyond any kind of margin of error. It's not just phone v online. ICM's online taken at the same time is 16 points different
All we can do is wait for a polling analysis from one of the polling gurus.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/6648051193938411530 -
Waiting for Stop The War to tell them.taffys said:
''Interesting positioning that I agree entirely with''
And the view of her majesty's official opposition is......???????????????????????????0 -
Just seen a poll from Britain elects that suggests the electorate have little confidence in Cameron to get a good deal from the EU.
I think we can expect some more LEAVE leads.0 -
Yes. Why should Doctors train at our expense and then bugger off to Australia for more money?taffys said:''If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.''
Should medical courses in the UK should come with more strings attached???0 -
A young audience member on QT last night got absolutely slapped down by that pointwatford30 said:
Yes. Why should Doctors train at our expense and then bugger off to Australia for more money?taffys said:''If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.''
Should medical courses in the UK should come with more strings attached???0 -
We should make students pay tuition fees. Oh wait ...watford30 said:
Yes. Why should Doctors train at our expense and then bugger off to Australia for more money?taffys said:''If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.''
Should medical courses in the UK should come with more strings attached???0 -
Well, for consent to be a defence to a charge of rape, (or sexual assault) you must not only consent to the sex, but consent to sex with the other person. If you consent to sex with A, but in reality, the other party is B, then there is no consent.isam said:
I don't get it.. someone consented to have sex, the other person DIDNT have sex with them.. and that's rape?Sean_F said:
If it was M/F, it would amount to rape by deception.isam said:
It wasn't rape was it though? She consented to have sex with the other personwatford30 said:
Judge Malky passes his verdict.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
"She was drunk and wearing a short skirt. She should have been aware of the drugs slipped into her glass. As the young hussy was clearly asking for it, I find the Defendant 'Not Guilty'."
If a man for some reason made a woman wear a blindfold each time they "had sex" and used a vibrator rather than his own dick, would that be a criminal offence?
If a man lied about his identity, and used a vibrator, then I don't think it would technically amount to a rape, but it would be a very serious sexual assault (as it is in this particular case). If he used his penis to penetrate the woman, then it would be rape by deception.
Rape (and sexual assault) by deception has been a crime since the early 19th century.0 -
Will they pay them back if they go straight to Oz?DecrepitJohnL said:
We should make students pay tuition fees. Oh wait ...watford30 said:
Yes. Why should Doctors train at our expense and then bugger off to Australia for more money?taffys said:''If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.''
Should medical courses in the UK should come with more strings attached???0 -
We should make students pay tuition fees. Oh wait ...
Do the fees cover the full cost of the training? I have to admit I have no idea.0 -
Lots of NHS spin this morning, I see. It is a shame because it is crowding out the one thing Jeremy Hunt has got right, which is to set up NHS-wide stillbirth case-by-case reviews, presumably inspired by the system airlines use for crashes and near-misses. The devil is in the detail, as there must also be a no-blame culture, for instance, but what has bedevilled medicine for centuries is its failure to learn from its own mistakes. Medicine is too often a craft rather than a science, in that respect.0
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Like!!!!!richardDodd said:OKC No problem with the extra cost...ust ask the taxpayers to pay more....then wait for the screaming to begin..
0 -
The question is whether those two million Conservative voters will move.AndyJS said:
He predicted a hung parliament in May IIRC.Theuniondivvie said:
Well..Roger said:Clearly the polls are well beyond any kind of margin of error. It's not just phone v online. ICM's online taken at the same time is 16 points different
All we can do is wait for a polling analysis from one of the polling gurus.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/664805119393841153
They say they will, if Cameron gets a good deal, but will they? What if he gets a very average or poor deal but then enthusiastically tries to sell it as a great deal? Will they all still take him at his word and migrate?
I don't know.0 -
As far as I can see she was not convicted of rape but of sexual assault. Under English law you can only be found guilty of rape if there was penile insertion. Which is why ludicrously women cannot be found guilty of raping men.isam said:
I don't get it.. someone consented to have sex, the other person DIDNT have sex with them.. and that's rape?Sean_F said:
If it was M/F, it would amount to rape by deception.isam said:
It wasn't rape was it though? She consented to have sex with the other personwatford30 said:
Judge Malky passes his verdict.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
One for youRoger said:Cyclefree.
Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.
https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560
"She was drunk and wearing a short skirt. She should have been aware of the drugs slipped into her glass. As the young hussy was clearly asking for it, I find the Defendant 'Not Guilty'."
If a man for some reason made a woman wear a blindfold each time they "had sex" and used a vibrator rather than his own dick, would that be a criminal offence?0 -
Peter Kellner is very right here - without getting all Sun Tzu, IMHO this referendum should only have been called once a clear consensus and majority to Leave had already been established:
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/features/the-power-of-uncertainty0 -
Nor me. Ironically, for years the NHS has been subsidised by cheap medical training in commonwealth countries.taffys said:We should make students pay tuition fees. Oh wait ...
Do the fees cover the full cost of the training? I have to admit I have no idea.0 -
No; if a student emigrates after graduating then tuition fees cannot be recovered.isam said:
Will they pay them back if they go straight to Oz?DecrepitJohnL said:
We should make students pay tuition fees. Oh wait ...watford30 said:
Yes. Why should Doctors train at our expense and then bugger off to Australia for more money?taffys said:''If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.''
Should medical courses in the UK should come with more strings attached???0 -
But Cameron doesn't want to leave. Nor does he want anything more than the absolute minimum of change to secure a Remain vote. He is the one calling the shots here to ensure we stay in at almost any cost.Casino_Royale said:Peter Kellner is very right here - without getting all Sun Tzu, IMHO this referendum should only have been called once a clear consensus and majority to Leave had already been established:
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/features/the-power-of-uncertainty0 -
@steve_hawkes: Labour statement on Emwazi coming shortly0
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Kellner doesn't seem to be taking the chaos coming out of Europe on a daily basis into account. I think that will have an impact.Casino_Royale said:Peter Kellner is very right here - without getting all Sun Tzu, IMHO this referendum should only have been called once a clear consensus and majority to Leave had already been established:
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/features/the-power-of-uncertainty0 -
@JoeWatts_: Labour leftists meet radicals, inc. those linked to Militant, in seat of Stella Creasy MP + discuss MP reselection https://t.co/YHJAFjplfS0
-
Indian cricket fans discover that the game isn't all that popular in the UK, so much so that a BA worker doesn't know who Sachin Tendulkar is:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/11992871/Sachin-Tendulkar-is-asked-for-his-name-by-British-Airways-internet-reacts-with-disbelief.html0 -
In the past three weeks Left-wingers in Wal-thamstow have used small meetings to spark two challenges to party officers. Further bids to replace established people with Leftists are expected at the constituency AGM on Thursday.
Scott_P said:@JoeWatts_: Labour leftists meet radicals, inc. those linked to Militant, in seat of Stella Creasy MP + discuss MP reselection https://t.co/YHJAFjplfS
0 -
Just did a quick bit of research on this and noticed that the New Zealand law is that you can be arrested and prevented from leaving the country if you try to leave with outstanding student loan debt and having been making the payments. Maybe we should look at a similar scheme here.OldKingCole said:
No; if a student emigrates after graduating then tuition fees cannot be recovered.isam said:
Will they pay them back if they go straight to Oz?DecrepitJohnL said:
We should make students pay tuition fees. Oh wait ...watford30 said:
Yes. Why should Doctors train at our expense and then bugger off to Australia for more money?taffys said:''If they let people die because they are on strike then it might not be legally murder but I would consider it such morally Yes.''
Should medical courses in the UK should come with more strings attached???0 -
The poor mans Sunil PrasanananAndyJS said:Indian cricket fans discover that the game isn't all that popular in the UK, so much so that a BA worker doesn't know who Sachin Tendulkar is:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/11992871/Sachin-Tendulkar-is-asked-for-his-name-by-British-Airways-internet-reacts-with-disbelief.html0 -
To be specific:Sean_F said:
Well, for consent to be a defence to a charge of rape, (or sexual assault) you must not only consent to the sex, but consent to sex with the other person. If you consent to sex with A, but in reality, the other party is B, then there is no consent.isam said:
I don't get it.. someone consented to have sex, the other person DIDNT have sex with them.. and that's rape?Sean_F said:
If it was M/F, it would amount to rape by deception.isam said:
It wasn't rape was it though? She consented to have sex with the other personwatford30 said:
Judge Malky passes his verdict.malcolmg said:
If you get someone stupid enough to agree to always wear a mask and never see who they are with and they then agree to sexual encounters with someone they cannot see , it appears the wrong person was convicted.JosiasJessop said:
Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.Pulpstar said:
240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...isam said:
"She was drunk and wearing a short skirt. She should have been aware of the drugs slipped into her glass. As the young hussy was clearly asking for it, I find the Defendant 'Not Guilty'."
If a man for some reason made a woman wear a blindfold each time they "had sex" and used a vibrator rather than his own dick, would that be a criminal offence?
If a man lied about his identity, and used a vibrator, then I don't think it would technically amount to a rape, but it would be a very serious sexual assault (as it is in this particular case). If he used his penis to penetrate the woman, then it would be rape by deception.
Rape (and sexual assault) by deception has been a crime since the early 19th century.
Deception vitiates consent, other by application of an irrebuitable presumption (s.76), by removing the freedom or capacity to consent under s.74, or by being a relevant circumstance for the purpose of 1(2), 2(2) etc, whichever applies.
It would have been a permissable conclusion for jury that the victim was not, in fact deceived - that she knew full well what was going on. I assume from the result that that conclusion was not drawn.
0 -
@benrileysmith: Jeremy Corbyn statement on Jihadi John -- "far better" if he had gone to court, not killed. https://t.co/DrHrKozS3N0
