politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN drops 2 in new Survation poll for UKIP donor Aaron B

His new nickname is Pinky Mist. It's like a new MLP

MarqueeMark said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
Nice nugget from @FrankRGardner on #JihadiJohn before he left UK: he had bad breath and couldn't pull.

He's now got 72 virgins going "Er...no thanks mate...."

SouthamObserver said:

Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.

I didn't vote Corbyn because I thought he would be terrific at winning elections. I voted for him because he offered positive left-wing policies put forward without personal vitriol. That's exactly what I want in politicians. First (IMO) you need to decide what you're standing for, then how to win with it, not the other way round.

SouthamObserver said:

The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.

I suspect all his fellow travellers and associates will get a wrench of fear everytime they see a speck in the sky. The drone of Damocles above them.

I am not entirely comfortable with extra-judicial execution from above, but it is in many ways the least bad option. The world is a better place without him.

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

I'd actually bet money that no one in the Labour party was told anything about Jihadi John on privy council terms. Its the price Labour are paying for Corbyn's beliefs.. I expect it will come out soon so as to damage Corbyn even more as a man who rightly cannot be trusted.

Would they need to be told? Would the privy council in general need to be told either?

The US are not going to share live intelligence with a man like Corbyn no matter what titles he may have in front of his name or, indeed, with anyone who does not need to know. And I doubt that the Privy Council need to know.

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate

Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough

http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC

No surprise there. Several of us on here were saying for ages that if you want to hide from the pollsters, it is very easy to do so these days... Basic question: do pollsters come up on mobiles as "number blocked"? If so, most won't answer. Even if it displays a number, many won't answer a number they don't recognise. Do pollsters leave a voice message and ask people to recontact them? Probably not is my guess, if they doing polls on the cheapest possible contact price.

And those who are signed up to panels are disproportionately politically aware.

Not to mention that phone polling with last-digit randomisation does not work

The Guardian has been living up to its reputation recently:

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/nov/11/myanmar-mohinga-burmese-cuisine-yangon-restaurants

I do like Hugo.

This is what happens when you brainwash yourself into believing that your lot are the only good guys; when you forget that it’s not the club that matters, but what the club does. This is what happens when you grow so used to feeling superior to everybody outside Labour that you can no longer properly believe such people are proper, moral humans at all. It’s not a church. It’s not a sin to go somewhere else for a bit if you need to. Not when the nuts do it, and not when you do either. Pull yourselves together. People are laughing.

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.

So cynical Southam, so cynical.

I know. I guess it's because I am a Red Tory. I need to spend less time in the real world and more on Twitter.

Excellent piece by Hugo Rifkind you may agree with: http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/the-answer-for-sensible-moderate-labour-folk-leave/

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.

I didn't vote Corbyn because I thought he would be terrific at winning elections. I voted for him because he offered positive left-wing policies put forward without personal vitriol. That's exactly what I want in politicians. First (IMO) you need to decide what you're standing for, then how to win with it, not the other way round.

I was speaking yesterday to a well-known losing PPC who has suffered endless personal vitriol from Corbyn supporters, including the threat of expulsion because this person had the temerity to suggest that the Labour Party should comply with its own rules.

They would find your view that Corbyn does not stand for personal vitriol beyond Panglossian.

As a possible solution to the migrants benefits problem (to be honest it doesn't bother me at all but I know others feel differently), could we move to a contributory principle but treat participation in full time education in the UK as a contribution in kind?

From the Hugo Speccy piece echoes your point

..And I don’t just mean the new lot, under Jeremy Corbyn, although his ongoing decision to surround himself with a team of people who seem to have each been tasked, individually, with emphasising a different bad thing about him does take some beating...

SquareRoot said:

Cyclefree said:

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

I'd actually bet money that no one in the Labour party was told anything about Jihadi John on privy council terms. Its the price Labour are paying for Corbyn's beliefs.. I expect it will come out soon so as to damage Corbyn even more as a man who rightly cannot be trusted.

Would they need to be told? Would the privy council in general need to be told either?

The US are not going to share live intelligence with a man like Corbyn no matter what titles he may have in front of his name or, indeed, with anyone who does not need to know. And I doubt that the Privy Council need to know.

Ms Cyclefree, best of luck.

Its irrelevant that no one was going to be told nor that the PC did not need to be told, it will be used to damage Corbyn and rightly so,

Innocent_Abroad said:

SouthamObserver said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

SouthamObserver said:

The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.

Who else would you like to torture to death?

Who said anything about torture? I'd have been happy for him to have looked his killer in the eye for a few seconds and to have known what was coming before a swift despatch. I know it makes me a bad person and, as an opponent of the death penalty, a complete hypocrite, but there you go.

You said it, mate

Unfortunately, we cannot all be as perfect as you Mr Innocent. Some of us are flawed. I know how it pains you and I apologise.

antifrank said:

As a possible solution to the migrants benefits problem (to be honest it doesn't bother me at all but I know others feel differently), could we move to a contributory principle but treat participation in full time education in the UK as a contribution in kind?

There's a strange aspect to this debate that I don't get. Why not have a residency requirement, eligibility for any state hand out being based on residence for X years. It's already used in the EU (Germany uses it to provide free University education).

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.

I didn't vote Corbyn because I thought he would be terrific at winning elections. I voted for him because he offered positive left-wing policies put forward without personal vitriol. That's exactly what I want in politicians. First (IMO) you need to decide what you're standing for, then how to win with it, not the other way round.

As I said, wide eyed and innocent. Mr Corbyn may not indulge in vitriol himself. But he is perfectly relaxed about his supporters doing so. Indeed, he seems pretty keen to work with people who have indulged in it regularly - especially against Labour.

antifrank said:

The Guardian has been living up to its reputation recently:

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/nov/11/myanmar-mohinga-burmese-cuisine-yangon-restaurants

I saw that and thought it might have been satire, but alas.

The guardian lost touch with reality a long while ago i fear.

All-graduate police force?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34805856

While I'm running through my hobbyhorses, there is this one. The posh kids are jealous of chavs in blue getting decent wages. Make it all-graduate so the PPE mob can be Chief Constables.

The criminal justice system is broken. No-one knows how to fix it because no-one cares about research (which often would be illegal anyway, as with juries).

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
Nice nugget from @FrankRGardner on #JihadiJohn before he left UK: he had bad breath and couldn't pull.

Young men are pumped full of hormones: they are at the peak of physical fitness and aggression, bot physical and sexual. It gets worse if they are in groups where they act as a pack.

No real team or competitive sport, precious few jobs and very little opportunity to meet women in the middle-east.

What else is there for them?

Edit: i recognise the UK is different, but if isolated culturally, a lot of those same factors still apply.

More shagging, less shooting.

Behave! Don't you know you're old enough to be my mother/older sister? ;-)

Only joking. Amen to that :-)

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.

I didn't vote Corbyn because I thought he would be terrific at winning elections. I voted for him because he offered positive left-wing policies put forward without personal vitriol. That's exactly what I want in politicians. First (IMO) you need to decide what you're standing for, then how to win with it, not the other way round.

I refer you to alan johnson on tw saying he was very pro trident but if the labour party policy becomes no trident, then he'd campaign on that basis at the next general election and as he's a labour man, the party comes first....

Lovely story http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34282849?post_id=386210914921589_433602630182417#_=_

Whatever his motivation, 100 years ago, on 21 September 1915, Cecil Chubb paid £6,600 for the monument at an auction in Salisbury, Wiltshire. It happened, he said, "on a whim".

Chubb's wife Mary was reportedly less than grateful for the romantic gesture, possibly because the price equated to as much as £680,000 in today's money. "It's said that Mary wanted Cecil to buy a set of curtains at the auction," says Stonehenge's curator, Heather Sebire. "And he came back with something rather different."

blackburn63 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

SouthamObserver said:

The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.

Who else would you like to torture to death?

Piers Morgan for me

Torturing to death is too good for him.

And that Alastair Campbell.

Personally, I'd just have them grow old under Tory majority Governments..... Far more cruel and unusual a punishment.

antifrank said:

As a possible solution to the migrants benefits problem (to be honest it doesn't bother me at all but I know others feel differently), could we move to a contributory principle but treat participation in full time education in the UK as a contribution in kind?

There are alot of sensible suggestions on PB.com that are so broadly agreeable and make common sense that you know they will never, ever see the light of day as legislation.

"More shagging, less shooting."

(Courtesy Grayson Perry)


http://www.artfund.org/assets/what-to-see/exhibitions/2013/Vanity of Small Differences tour/GP362_The-Upper-Classes-at-Bay_2012-FULL.jpg

MarqueeMark said:

blackburn63 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

SouthamObserver said:

The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.

Who else would you like to torture to death?

Piers Morgan for me

Torturing to death is too good for him.

And that Alastair Campbell.

Personally, I'd just have them grow old under Tory majority Governments..... Far more cruel and unusual a punishment.

If you believe Roger, that's a fate worse than death.

Wow - I'm glad I'm not a Kiwi bowler...

@caprosser: Since EU referendums polls are in the news the @BESResearch random probability face-to-face survey has stay at 60.78% and leave at 39.22%.

@caprosser: I'm not saying the polls are definitely wrong again - may have changed since our fieldwork - but take EU polls with a grain of salt...

Without wandering into lagershed TMI, I just find that whole story beyond belief. I'm amazed it got to court, given that it did - all bets were off.

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Roger said:

Cyclefree.

Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.

One for you

https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560

240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...

chestnut said:

antifrank said:

As a possible solution to the migrants benefits problem (to be honest it doesn't bother me at all but I know others feel differently), could we move to a contributory principle but treat participation in full time education in the UK as a contribution in kind?

It's the obvious solution, isn't it?

We already have a system of 'credits' in place for people that make themselves available for work. A similar system based on education/government training from 15 onwards would probably do the trick.

Why wouldn't' it fall foul of EU law in the same way? Credit would have to be given for full-time education in other EU countries otherwise Britain would be discriminating against non-British but EU students.

The plain fact is that the EU thinks that being a national of a EU state should have no significance when it comes to matters such as jobs, benefits etc. Unless that principle is overturned or unless education is some special case, this won't work.

But we really need an expert on EU law to opine.

SouthamObserver said:

As I said, wide eyed and innocent. Mr Corbyn may not indulge in vitriol himself. But he is perfectly relaxed about his supporters doing so. Indeed, he seems pretty keen to work with people who have indulged in it regularly - especially against Labour.

No, he's repeatedly told his supporters to cut out the abuse (obviously not practical to do it retrospectively). There is no shortage of wild-eyed characters in all parties who like nothing better than abusing their opponents (over the years, I've been called a killer (by George Galloway), a traitor and, most hurtfully, a pessimist...:-)), but I've yet to hear any of Corbyn's circle do so since they were appointed. And to be fair, with one or two exceptions, his Parliamentary opponents have broadly refrained from it in public too. I suspect things may be different after May, depending on the results.

I'm not sure how they've done it - Jeremy Kyle is intving the daughter of Alan Henning right now. It's heartrending stuff. ITV.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Wow - I'm glad I'm not a Kiwi bowler...

Jade Dernbach is the New Zealand bowling coach ?

.

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyclefree said:

NickPalmer said:

Another German poll showing Merkel's support recovering - which even I think is surprising at this point:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

My offer to AndyJS and Regiecide to take up with a £10 bet Andy's prediction that CDU support would soon drop below 30% remains open...

Thanks for your and others kind words last night. I am keeping myself busy so that I don't have time to brood. I just wish I got the results one way or the other.

Anyway I see that the government is thinking of adopting the very same policies on withdrawal of benefits from British people that we were debating here the other day. If true, doesn't it suggest that Cameron has already abandoned the first of his renegotiation demands about withdrawal of benefits from migrants, which would take a change in EU law?

Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers. They really feel backed into a corner with no alternative.

People who are as intelligent, motivated, and hard-working as junior doctors are _always_ have alternatives.

Some of these include:

a) leave for Australia/Switzerland/Swaziland
b) leave for an equally lucrative job in another profession (plenty of ex-doctors in the financial services industry, for example)
c) suck it up to wait for the big bucks which will put their lifetime earnings at a level that most people can only dream of.

But they have chosen

d) to strike.

Limited sympathy.

Australia are flat track bullying NZ rather well !

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

As I said, wide eyed and innocent. Mr Corbyn may not indulge in vitriol himself. But he is perfectly relaxed about his supporters doing so. Indeed, he seems pretty keen to work with people who have indulged in it regularly - especially against Labour.

No, he's repeatedly told his supporters to cut out the abuse (obviously not practical to do it retrospectively). There is no shortage of wild-eyed characters in all parties who like nothing better than abusing their opponents (over the years, I've been called a killer (by George Galloway), a traitor and, most hurtfully, a pessimist...:-)), but I've yet to hear any of Corbyn's circle do so since they were appointed. And to be fair, with one or two exceptions, his Parliamentary opponents have broadly refrained from it in public too. I suspect things may be different after May, depending on the results.

Nuanced statement there Nick - "since they were appointed". Carefully excludes his key advisor - suspended from Labour - but in whom Corbyn still has confidence.

Honestly, the arguments Corbyn supporters use to excuse really vile behaviour and speech would not disgrace the Jesuits.

antifrank said:

As a possible solution to the migrants benefits problem (to be honest it doesn't bother me at all but I know others feel differently), could we move to a contributory principle but treat participation in full time education in the UK as a contribution in kind?

Good shout. I am not a lawyer, but wonder if it would then be discriminatory to say those who had been in FTE in EU couldn't claim.

Wonder if we could bring back the citizen services idea, and class it as contribution in kind for NEETS....

antifrank said:

This pair of tweets is worth reading:

Andy White ‏@AndyDataSci · 8h8 hours ago
@Survation how often do you poll for Leave.EU? Were there other unpublished polls with more favourable scores for Remain?

Survation. ‏@Survation · 1h1 hour ago
@AndyDataSci 1) Second poll. 2) No, only published ones. If you are claiming client/pollster bias, perhaps read: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Europoll-Tables-for-Release.pdf

Survation are being a bit tetchy there. It's a legitimate question to ask whether there have been other unpublished polls. Leave.EU wouldn't be the first organisation to publish polls selectively. But it's useful to know that so far they haven't.

Aren't they just answering the questions? (and the implied third one)

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Roger said:

Cyclefree.

Go private. Though treatmment is excellent (and I would say better) on the NHS diagnosis is much quicker and more personal if you go private. Money very well spent.

One for you

https://twitter.com/frank_fisher/status/665087802212802560

240 hours of community service or 8 years. The mind boggles as to how the sentences can be so different for such similiar crimes (Yes I know one case is in Scotland, the other in England !). Perhaps around 6 months (Around 3 weeks inside iirc) would be appropriate for them both...

Nice to see you treat rape so lightly.

Cyclefree said:

Nuanced statement there Nick - "since they were appointed". Carefully excludes his key advisor - suspended from Labour - but in whom Corbyn still has confidence.

Applies to him too. Has he said anything objectionable since he was appointed? I don't like the nasty personal style of his past comments, but so long as he cuts them out now, I don't insist on retrospective vetting. But it's important to insist on that - as McDonnell wryly says, "Jeremy is trying to teach me to be a nicer person" :-).

In any party shift of position on the spectrum, you're going to get people who were previously harsh critics to revise their view, and people who were previously supporters to express vehement and sometimes personal opposition, like Southam. It's as pointless to blame Fisher for being previously critical of Labour as it is to be blame Southam for being previously supportive.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@caprosser: Since EU referendums polls are in the news the @BESResearch random probability face-to-face survey has stay at 60.78% and leave at 39.22%.

@caprosser: I'm not saying the polls are definitely wrong again - may have changed since our fieldwork - but take EU polls with a grain of salt...

Turnout is going to be a huge factor in the result. I don't know how pollsters are accounting for this - presumably by weighting, as usual - but whether it's 45% or 55% could make a big impact on the result.

I pretty much agree with Sean Fear on this: London and the South-East, Bristol, Manchester, the Scottish central belt, the nationalist parts of Northern Ireland and the university cities will be for Remain.

Everywhere else will be for Leave, but it does depend on if they turn out: older voters grit vs. C2DE apathy.

Which will win?

OKC

Aftercare is significantly poorer, I understand.

I'm sure it is. Diagnosis is what BUPA or other providers are good at. Calls on your mobile "When can you make it for a scan/biopsy?". Much better and more reassuring than a letter in a brown envelope sent second class post telling you to turn up for an appointment in six weeks time....

@Foxinsox

"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."

No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.

Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.

Scott_P said:

@WikiGuido: Opening book on Corbyn's statement:
"...but" Evens
"Legally questionable" 2/1
"Extra-judicial killing" 5/1
"Tragedy" 50/1
"Welcome" 100/1

What stakes is he offering on "but"? I'd be a heavy buyer at evens.

Guido missed out "friends". That's surely worth a price too.

HurstLlama said:

@Foxinsox

"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."

No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.

Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.

Or to be Machiavellian:

What is the easiest way for a Tory government get the public on side for radical dismantling and privatisation of the NHS?

Get the public to turn against the greed of the well paid employees.

Play the long game.

Roger said:

OKC

Aftercare is significantly poorer, I understand.

I'm sure it is. Diagnosis is what BUPA or other providers are good at. Calls on your mobile "When can you make it for a scan/biopsy?". Much better and more reassuring than a letter in a brown envelope sent second class post telling you to turn up for an appointment in six weeks time....

Not my experience, Roger. I’ve had calls, admittedly on my landline, for appointments.

And aftercare is part of the treatment. IMHO BUPA etc should be charged for the aftercare that they, effectively, pass on to the NHS. Along with the emergency admission to and NHS ITU when something goes wromg in the BUPA operating theatre, which BUPA’s people can’t deal with.

Good morning all. Jihadi John meeting his maker; what a lovely start to the day, if true.

When Jenny (my beloved wife) was enduring each successive diagnosis, I thought I would lose my mind as we waited (again and again) for results to come through. I find it hard to express how much sympathy I have with anyone undergoing the same process.

I hope, but doubt, that the doctor's strike will not add one day to anyone's waiting. I'm finding it hard to be sympathetic to their cause.

In terms of the recent rape case, I'm struggling with the 8 year sentence. That will doubtless be seen as an apologia for rape (because it's the Internet which seems to inhibit nuanced thinking).

In this case it's the sense that the definition of rape seems to encompass fraud (I don't think there's any question of violence being part of this particular equation). Transgender people have to deal with this tricky ethical question a good deal (e.g. should a post-op transwoman tell a sexual partner her birth gender?). I've yet to see a good, universally applicable answer.

@jamesmatesitv: Latest @IfopOpinion French Presidential poll:
Marine Le Pen 28%
Sarkozy 23%
Hollande 21%

antifrank said:

Nicola SturgeonVerified account ‏@NicolaSturgeon ·
It was a tough job, ladies, but someone had to do it #Scotbizawards

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTpd7TOXIAAjYq9.jpg

*mmph mmph mmph mmph*

The Krankies Redux will be pulling them into the Dundee Panto....

philiph said:

HurstLlama said:

@Foxinsox

"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."

No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.

Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.

Or to be Machiavellian:

What is the easiest way for a Tory government get the public on side for radical dismantling and privatisation of the NHS?

Get the public to turn against the greed of the well paid employees.

Play the long game.

My social media networks are FULL of junior doctors getting each other very excited about:

a) Jeremy Hunt and how much they dislike him - frequently expressed in the highest of doctorly insults: that they don't think he is competant
b) How they're all hoping for the strike
c) How this is a cynical ploy played out by unpleasant Tories who want to sell the NHS to their friends.

How they can't see that b) is going to facilitate the argument for c) I just don't get. They're generally pretty bright people. Politics is not their strong point, though.

Not a single person who isn't a medic has responded. It is yet another public sector echo chamber event.

Public sympathy will evaporate on hour 1 of a strike.

HurstLlama said:

@Foxinsox

"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."

No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.

Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.

Hurst well said , a bunch of greedy grasping over privileged whingers.

foxinsoxuk said:

HurstLlama said:

@Foxinsox

"... Junior doctors are not 70's BL workers...."

No they are not but this dispute seems to be about money, just like many at the old British Leyland. The doctors want more of it and are threatening to strike unless they get it. The employers have offered an 11% payrise and the doctors have turned it down and now, I read in the Telegraph, are threatening an all out strike. Seems very similar to BL days to me. Even the language being used is similar, workers forced into a corner with no alternative but to withdraw their labour etc. etc.

Of course the difference is that BL workers never proposed leaving people in pain and allowing them to do die prematurely. So in that sense junior doctors are certainly not like 1970s BL workers. The idea that a doctor will, in furtherance of his/her financial gain, leave patients untreated and to die is to me astonishing and anyone who indulges in such rampant selfishness will deserve to become a social outcast.

I am happy to argue about it later.

1) the deal is a substantial paycut, not a payrise
2) the cut is biggest for those working weekends already
3) these doctors are trainees and there is no protection for training
4) the contract removes the obligation for Trusts to monitor working hours to ensure they comply with the law
5) it discriminates against women and people taking career breaks for research etc

I have not yet met a Doctor at any level that supports the contract. Mr Hunt refuses to negotiate without preconditions or the threat of unilateral imposition.

So what you are saying is that because they will not negotiate if Hunt has preconditions, they would rather not negotiate at all and have him simply impose the changes which they could otherwise have mitigated through negotiation. And in the meantime they will let a few patients die to prove a point.

I am sorry I never realised our doctors were so fecking stupid.