politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN drops 2 in new Survation poll for UKIP donor Aaron B
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN drops 2 in new Survation poll for UKIP donor Aaron Bank’s Leave.EU
For the first time in two months there’s an EU referendum poll which has OUT in the lead. It was carried out by Survation for the Aaron Bank Leave.EU organisation which is bidding to be the officially recognised referendum campaign against staying in the EU.
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First ..... again!0
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This poll can hardly come as any surprise after Cameron's incredibly modest, understated "demands" for our remaining in the EU. I'm expecting more of the same over the coming weeks.0
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Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.0
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I'm inclined to trust the phone pollsters more - but I'd have thought what's more significant are the assumptions the pollsters maker about turnout.0
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I think 'modesty' like so many things lie in the eyes of the beholder. Cameron will decide the referendum result and the hyperbole of the Leavers will not help their cause.peter_from_putney said:This poll can hardly come as any surprise after Cameron's incredibly modest, understated "demands" for our remaining in the EU. I'm expecting more of the same over the coming weeks.
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Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...Pong said:Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.
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Who else do you expect to wear a "Nigel Says No" T-Shirt? Page Three girls are more likely to wear one labelled "Say No to Nigel", surely...Pong said:Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.
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Haven't we already seen this self same photograph on PB.com on at least two occasions previously?GeoffM said:
Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...Pong said:Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.
Shades of the purple painted finger nails posting matching purple-edged ballot paper into a Bedford pillar box.0 -
How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?GeoffM said:
Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...Pong said:Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.
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I'd guess 15 geeks, 2 girls and not sure about the front one with the glasses - geek, lesbian?????logical_song said:
How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?GeoffM said:
Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...Pong said:Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.
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Are you in Dubai,an insomniac or just an early riser?peter_from_putney said:First ..... again!
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Or possibly all three...OldKingCole said:
Are you in Dubai,an insomniac or just an early riser?peter_from_putney said:First ..... again!
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You win this battle, but the war continues....peter_from_putney said:First ..... again!
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It IS a Mike plot - he's the one at the back with an orange tie.felix said:
I'd guess 15 geeks, 2 girls and not sure about the front one with the glasses - geek, lesbian?????logical_song said:
How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?GeoffM said:
Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...Pong said:Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.
Alternatively those are the only young Kippers they could find -and so enthusiastic!0 -
Comres is the definitive outlier.
Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.0 -
"War" is a bit strong surely? Friendly joust perhaps.RobD said:
You win this battle, but the war continues....peter_from_putney said:First ..... again!
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Excellent news from Burma:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election
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ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.Casino_Royale said:Comres is the definitive outlier.
Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.
They are the new gold standard.
^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.0 -
Increase in support for leaving the EU. 53% Leave to 47% Remain. Only one of Cameron’s reform demands match the public’s top 4 priorities:
http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=d31fc86423&e=50c0187e780 -
Paraphrasing General Martok regarding battles with his wifepeter_from_putney said:
"War" is a bit strong surely? Friendly joust perhaps.RobD said:
You win this battle, but the war continues....peter_from_putney said:First ..... again!
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I have a theory for the divergence between the phone and online polls.
At the election every phone poll underestimated UKIP and a majority of the online polls overestimated UKIP.
It could be that all over again but more amplified.0 -
Earlier in the year I attended a 2 day meeting with senior kippers, amongst other guest speakers was the MD of Survation who explained how they questioned people in a slightly different way which is why ukip always polled higher with his firm. Interesting that Mr Banks is still using them.
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Mr Putney, to most people yes, but people who have the temerity to oppose Dave it's war, this is personal.peter_from_putney said:
"War" is a bit strong surely? Friendly joust perhaps.RobD said:
You win this battle, but the war continues....peter_from_putney said:First ..... again!
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The one with glasses is a boy. I remember Farage thanked him on Twitter for helping in is south Thanet but could only remember his first name. Obviously made a great impression...felix said:
I'd guess 15 geeks, 2 girls and not sure about the front one with the glasses - geek, lesbian?????logical_song said:
How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?GeoffM said:
Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...Pong said:Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.
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LOL. Have to bring politics into it. It's a war for first, the most coveted prize PB has to offer.blackburn63 said:
Mr Putney, to most people yes, but people who have the temerity to oppose Dave it's war, this is personal.peter_from_putney said:
"War" is a bit strong surely? Friendly joust perhaps.RobD said:
You win this battle, but the war continues....peter_from_putney said:First ..... again!
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Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.
If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.
We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html0 -
There has been a methodology change by Survation since their last poll.
They have polled Northern Ireland too. So it is truly a UK wide poll and not a Great Britain wide poll.
Alan Brooke will be delighted.
Edit apologies. Survation have done it before. Back in July. Didn't do it for September.0 -
I guess this will be story of the day
@BBCBreaking: "Jihadi John" killed in US air strike in Syria, senior military source tells BBC, with "high degree of certainty" https://t.co/IcsUgFunUW0 -
New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate
Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough
http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC0 -
Excellent.TheScreamingEagles said:I guess this will be story of the day
@BBCBreaking: "Jihadi John" killed in US air strike in Syria, senior military source tells BBC, with "high degree of certainty" https://t.co/IcsUgFunUW0 -
Jihadi John killed...0
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***** Betting Post *****
Surprisingly, Ladbrokes is so far the only major bookie to offer banded odds on the percentage vote in favour of "Remain" in the forthcoming referendum.
Cameron's ultra weak and furthermore negotiable demands makes the whole exercise appear to be something of a joke.
Such "demands" appear likely to strengthen marginally the Leave vote to between 35% - 45% imho, with the Remain vote therefore coming in at between 55% - 65%. It is difficult to imagine that the result will be outside these parameters.
If I'm right, then by staking 60.87% at decimal odds of 4.5 on Laddies' 55% - 60% Remain band and the remaining 39.13% at odds of 7.0 on their 60% - 65% Remain band produces winning combined odds were either element to prove successful of 2.74 (or almost 7/4 in old money).
As ever, DYOR.
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Would finally be some good news for the West in Syria and take the attention from the RussiansTheScreamingEagles said:I guess this will be story of the day
@BBCBreaking: "Jihadi John" killed in US air strike in Syria, senior military source tells BBC, with "high degree of certainty" https://t.co/IcsUgFunUW0 -
Why would the African states want them back?Moses_ said:Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.
If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.
We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html
I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.Casino_Royale said:Comres is the definitive outlier.
Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.
They are the new gold standard.
^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.0 -
The general election poll shows virtually the same result for the Tories, Labour and the LDs as May but UKIP are up 2 to 3%. That confirms my view that as the LDs made the biggest advances in the IDS years so UKIP will make the biggest advances in the Corbyn years
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Ipsos Mori backs up that ComResCasino_Royale said:
Why would the African states want them back?Moses_ said:Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.
If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.
We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html
I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.Casino_Royale said:Comres is the definitive outlier.
Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.
They are the new gold standard.
^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.
Most interesting poll on this topic was yesterday.
@TSEofPB: New GQRR poll
Cameron succeeds in negotiating a better deal from the EU, he adds 10 points to remain
https://t.co/nWfTGgHydz0 -
Looks like she has won over 80% of seatsfoxinsoxuk said:Excellent news from Burma:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election0 -
Whatever the Telegraph or Mail say is the Gospel Truth & anyone who even begins to think otherwise is a vicious traitor who should be tortured to death. Eh, Moses? Eh?Moses_ said:Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.
If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.
We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html
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Aid and access to European markets could be made contingent on taking them backCasino_Royale said:
Why would the African states want them back?Moses_ said:Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.
If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.
We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html
I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.Casino_Royale said:Comres is the definitive outlier.
Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.
They are the new gold standard.
^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.0 -
I see Modi indirectly backed Remain at his press conference yesterday saying 'If there is an entry point to the EU, that is the UK and that is good for us.' Although he also said `the inhabitants of this country are very intelligent and wise' and he would not offer direct advice, that seems to contradict recent Leave statements that India wants Brexit0
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To Africa!Sean_F said:
Aid and access to European markets could be made contingent on taking them backCasino_Royale said:
Why would the African states want them back?Moses_ said:Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.
If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.
We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html
I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.Casino_Royale said:Comres is the definitive outlier.
Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.
They are the new gold standard.
^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.0 -
Don't most people know Nigel, and indeed Dave, mainly by their first names ..... nothing much has changed since the days of "Maggie".MP_SE said:
The one with glasses is a boy. I remember Farage thanked him on Twitter for helping in is south Thanet but could only remember his first name. Obviously made a great impression...felix said:
I'd guess 15 geeks, 2 girls and not sure about the front one with the glasses - geek, lesbian?????logical_song said:
How did Mike manage to get all those OUT people to pose like that?GeoffM said:
Expect this same single unflattering badly posed photograph to be a semi-permanent fixture for LEAVE threads from now on. You can take the man out of the BBC, but you can't...Pong said:Interesting to note the gender split in the photo - I'm not sure having (with all due respect to those guys in the photo) a spotty teenage boy turn up at your door in his nigel t-shirt is going to shift many votes.
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Good news we need to get out as soon as possible
Join Leave.EU- https://leave.eu/en/user/register
Leave.EU facebook- https://www.facebook.com/leaveeuofficial
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Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi
Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.0 -
They both find far fewer don't knows too. It looks like a sampling difference to me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ipsos Mori backs up that ComResCasino_Royale said:
Why would the African states want them back?Moses_ said:Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.
If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.
We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html
I don't think there's much collateral evidence for Remain having a 20-point lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes was the most accurate pollster^ at the general election.Casino_Royale said:Comres is the definitive outlier.
Personally, I think Leave and Remain aren't far off neck and neck. But, if this trend continues, it could be an early sign that Cameron's recommendation might not have as great an effect as first thought.
They are the new gold standard.
^Technically they were the least inaccurate pollster.
Most interesting poll on this topic was yesterday.
@TSEofPB: New GQRR poll
Cameron succeeds in negotiating a better deal from the EU, he adds 10 points to remain
https://t.co/nWfTGgHydz
Doesn't mean it's wrong of course but it is more likely to be.0 -
Self selection internet polls.TheScreamingEagles said:New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate
Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough
http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC
What is the method for the (horrendously inaccurate last May) Survation poll here?0 -
God only knows what a pacifist who wears a red poppy thinks about anything...Scrapheap_as_was said:Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi
Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.
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Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)
Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...0 -
Sorry that report and newspaper source was not too your liking. Perhaps this newspaper source and report type will be closer to your in depth and cutting edge debating skills.Innocent_Abroad said:
Whatever the Telegraph or Mail say is the Gospel Truth & anyone who even begins to think otherwise is a vicious traitor who should be tortured to death. Eh, Moses? Eh?Moses_ said:Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.
If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.
We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/kitten-nearly-explodes-joy-jumps-68208990 -
Belle Vue (Shropshire) result:
LAB - 47.8% (-28.7)
CON - 24.7% (+1.1)
LDEM - 21.0% (+21.0)
GRN - 6.6% (+6.6)
Two English by elections - Labour lose a quarter to a third of their vote in them.0 -
They had another tricky seat last night as well according to Harry's excellent summaries. It will be interesting to see the full results.chestnut said:Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)
Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...0 -
Well he said the death of Osama bin Laden was a tragedy, so he'll be gutted at this I suspect.Innocent_Abroad said:
God only knows what a pacifist who wears a red poppy thinks about anything...Scrapheap_as_was said:Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi
Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.
What do Corbyn and bin Laden have in common? Both Arsenal fans.0 -
It is a great day for democracy, freedom and peaceful resistance. I did some work in Burma years ago, it is a gorgeous country with lovely people. I am delighted for them.HYUFD said:
Looks like she has won over 80% of seatsfoxinsoxuk said:Excellent news from Burma:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election0 -
A Tragedy!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi
Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.0 -
Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodgesScrapheap_as_was said:Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi
Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.
World's most sadistic terrorist reportedly killed. And I'm sitting here thinking "what will the party I'm a member of say about that".0 -
Onlinechestnut said:
Self selection internet polls.TheScreamingEagles said:New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate
Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough
http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC
What is the method for the (horrendously inaccurate last May) Survation poll here?
http://survation.com/latest-eu-referendum-polling/0 -
Was the Labour candidate scandal ridden? That's a huge drop.chestnut said:
Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)
Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...0 -
Emwazi is hardly a Bin Laden, more a painfully inadequate psychopath. But the world is not diminished by his passing.0
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Bingo!TheScreamingEagles said:
Well he said the death of Osama bin Laden was a tragedy, so he'll be gutted at this I suspect.Innocent_Abroad said:
God only knows what a pacifist who wears a red poppy thinks about anything...Scrapheap_as_was said:Chris Mason ✔ @ChrisMasonBBC
A source close to David Cameron told the BBC that the UK had been working very closely alongside the Americans tracking Mohammed Emwazi
Would Privy Councillors know? I wonder what a certain pacifist thought if so.
What do Corbyn and bin Laden have in common? Both Arsenal fans.0 -
Dirty sleazy kippers on the slide too ;-)chestnut said:Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)
Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...0 -
Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
Nice nugget from @FrankRGardner on #JihadiJohn before he left UK: he had bad breath and couldn't pull.0 -
you're obviously not understanding the dynamic.chestnut said:Rodwell (Dorset) result:
GRN - 34.9% (+12.0)
CON - 29.5% (+5.9)
LAB - 21.9% (-7.3)
UKIP - 9.1% (-9.8)
LDEM - 4.6% (-0.8)
Absolutely atrocious result for Labour. If Corbyn can't hold over the Greens...
With Jezza in charge, all the greens were supposed to come back to Lab sobbing with gratitude at the emergence of a true left wing party...0 -
Is this beginning a pattern or just coincidence?chestnut said:
Belle Vue (Shropshire) result:
LAB - 47.8% (-28.7)
CON - 24.7% (+1.1)
LDEM - 21.0% (+21.0)
GRN - 6.6% (+6.6)
Two English by elections - Labour lose a quarter to a third of their vote in them.0 -
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Huzzah for George Osborne and his brilliant stewardship of the economy
@George_Osborne: Delighted to announce the largest ever government sale of financial assets with £13bn mortgages sold at a gain for taxpayers
@George_Osborne: Another important step in clearing up the mess left by the financial crisis. Now returned over 85% of Northern Rock to private sector0 -
Next May's elections are going to be fun at this rate....chestnut said:Belle Vue (Shropshire) result:
LAB - 47.8% (-28.7)
CON - 24.7% (+1.1)
LDEM - 21.0% (+21.0)
GRN - 6.6% (+6.6)
Two English by elections - Labour lose a quarter to a third of their vote in them.0 -
The Telegraph has the most poignant frontpage - a slideshow of the victims of this monster. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/#source=refresh0
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Can I apologise for getting a little carried away last night. I hope you didn't take offence. I also agree that none of today's young generation will get anything like the benefits of those approaching retirement now.foxinsoxuk said:
It is a great day for democracy, freedom and peaceful resistance. I did some work in Burma years ago, it is a gorgeous country with lovely people. I am delighted for them.HYUFD said:
Looks like she has won over 80% of seatsfoxinsoxuk said:Excellent news from Burma:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election0 -
@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.0
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How convenient, lol.TheScreamingEagles said:@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.
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Another German poll showing Merkel's support recovering - which even I think is surprising at this point:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
My offer to AndyJS and Regiecide to take up with a £10 bet Andy's prediction that CDU support would soon drop below 30% remains open...0 -
Clearly the polls are well beyond any kind of margin of error. It's not just phone v online. ICM's online taken at the same time is 16 points different
All we can do is wait for a polling analysis from one of the polling gurus.0 -
Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.0
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Another economic illiterate. This is a capital asset that reflects public debt that was invested in Northern Rock. It won't affect Osborne's borrowing target at all and it really should not be used to finance current spending.TheScreamingEagles said:@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.
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I wonder how the PM and Remain campaign (which we can now consider the same thing, I think) will react if 'leave' starts to establish consistent leads?
Do they dial up Project Fear or will there be some shift from the PM's current policy of seeking only cosmetic concessions from the EU?0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate
Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough
http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC
No surprise there. Several of us on here were saying for ages that if you want to hide from the pollsters, it is very easy to do so these days... Basic question: do pollsters come up on mobiles as "number blocked"? If so, most won't answer. Even if it displays a number, many won't answer a number they don't recognise. Do pollsters leave a voice message and ask people to recontact them? Probably not is my guess, if they doing polls on the cheapest possible contact price.
And those who are signed up to panels are disproportionately politically aware.0 -
The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.0
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No need, but thanks:DavidL said:
Can I apologise for getting a little carried away last night. I hope you didn't take offence. I also agree that none of today's young generation will get anything like the benefits of those approaching retirement now.foxinsoxuk said:
It is a great day for democracy, freedom and peaceful resistance. I did some work in Burma years ago, it is a gorgeous country with lovely people. I am delighted for them.HYUFD said:
Looks like she has won over 80% of seatsfoxinsoxuk said:Excellent news from Burma:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election
Basically Hunt has picked a fight unnessecarily. He needs to reopen talks without preconditions or threats of imposition. The Spectator has a good article on the issue:
http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/jeremy-hunt-is-spoiling-for-a-fight-hes-picked-the-wrong-one/
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So cynical Southam, so cynical.SouthamObserver said:Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.
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25% of the seats are retained by the military, what I believe you mean is that she has won 80% of the 75%. Still is, hopefully, a majority and that the military stays in barracks.HYUFD said:
Looks like she has won over 80% of seatsfoxinsoxuk said:Excellent news from Burma:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/13/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-myanmar-landmark-election
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Colourful report (without a lot of strategic information, though) from the Kurdish-ISIS front:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/13/world/middleeast/sinjar-isis-iraq-syria.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&mtrref=www.nytimes.com&gwh=7A4CBADFFE8FD0AA4D5618F3C&_r=00 -
I don't quote from newspapers on this site.Moses_ said:
Sorry that report and newspaper source was not too your liking. Perhaps this newspaper source and report type will be closer to your in depth and cutting edge debating skills.Innocent_Abroad said:
Whatever the Telegraph or Mail say is the Gospel Truth & anyone who even begins to think otherwise is a vicious traitor who should be tortured to death. Eh, Moses? Eh?Moses_ said:Telegraph reports this morning that the EU plans to send back many of the asylum seekers has met with fierce resistance from African States. The proposals were then watered down to infer only those that voluntarily wanted to go back. So that would be none then.
If that scenario continues then expect the leave campaign to pull ahead more quickly. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but the illegal entry of many who have no right to be here and who are not under threat in their home countries.
We should continue to help those under threat of course but we can no longer simply treat the symptoms in these cases we now really have to cure the source of the problem whatever that takes to do. The alternative is large swathes of the planet uninhabitable and many millions squeezed into a smaller area with inevitable breakdowns of supporting infrastructure and inter community relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11991098/Migrant-crisis-Donald-Tusk-warns-that-Schengen-is-on-brink-of-collapse-latest-news.html
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/kitten-nearly-explodes-joy-jumps-6820899
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SouthamObserver said:The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.
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Who else would you like to torture to death?SouthamObserver said:The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.
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And demonstrably a Tory.DavidL said:
So cynical Southam, so cynical.SouthamObserver said:Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.
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I know. I guess it's because I am a Red Tory. I need to spend less time in the real world and more on Twitter.DavidL said:
So cynical Southam, so cynical.SouthamObserver said:Whoever would have thought that Labour would lose substantial numbers of votes in real English elections under the stewardship of Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? It is genuinely shocking. Nearly as amazing as the fact that Corbyn has made also no difference to Labour's position in Scotland. It's almost as if NP and the other bright-eyed innocents who voted Jezza in have absolutely no clue at all about what it takes to win elections in the UK.
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I'd actually bet money that no one in the Labour party was told anything about Jihadi John on privy council terms. Its the price Labour are paying for Corbyn's beliefs.. I expect it will come out soon so as to damage Corbyn even more as a man who rightly cannot be trusted.0
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Thanks for your and others kind words last night. I am keeping myself busy so that I don't have time to brood. I just wish I got the results one way or the other.NickPalmer said:Another German poll showing Merkel's support recovering - which even I think is surprising at this point:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
My offer to AndyJS and Regiecide to take up with a £10 bet Andy's prediction that CDU support would soon drop below 30% remains open...
Anyway I see that the government is thinking of adopting the very same policies on withdrawal of benefits from British people that we were debating here the other day. If true, doesn't it suggest that Cameron has already abandoned the first of his renegotiation demands about withdrawal of benefits from migrants, which would take a change in EU law?
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He's now got 72 virgins going "Er...no thanks mate...."Scrapheap_as_was said:Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
Nice nugget from @FrankRGardner on #JihadiJohn before he left UK: he had bad breath and couldn't pull.0 -
I wouldn’t at all mind being asked a genuine question on political matters, but all of the “opinion pollers” from whom I used to get calls were thinly disguised marketing exercises. And I got a lot of them.MarqueeMark said:TheScreamingEagles said:New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate
Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough
http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC
No surprise there. Several of us on here were saying for ages that if you want to hide from the pollsters, it is very easy to do so these days... Basic question: do pollsters come up on mobiles as "number blocked"? If so, most won't answer. Even if it displays a number, many won't answer a number they don't recognise. Do pollsters leave a voice message and ask people to recontact them? Probably not is my guess, if they doing polls on the cheapest possible contact price.
And those who are signed up to panels are disproportionately politically aware.
Plus calls from “Microsoft’s Technical Department”, whose operatives offered to get inside my computer and remove malware. As a Mac user ......
So I signed up to caller display and unless it’s a local number, or one that we recognise my wife just ignore the calls. We listen 1571 afterwards and if it’s important a message will be left.0 -
Who said anything about torture? I'd have been happy for him to have looked his killer in the eye for a few seconds and to have known what was coming before a swift despatch. I know it makes me a bad person and, as an opponent of the death penalty, a complete hypocrite, but there you go.Innocent_Abroad said:
Who else would you like to torture to death?SouthamObserver said:The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.
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Question for our US experts: the Realclearpolitics polls show opinion about Obama conistently pretty evenly divided - typically about a 4% edge for "disapprove". By contrast, opinions of Congress are almost unanimously negative - 11% approve, 86% disapprove in one recent poll. What's going on here?
Should we expect a big anti-incumbent "throw the rascals out" vote, possibly even overcoming the notorious districting bias? But the GOP are doing quite well in local one-off elections, so it doesn't seem to be an anti-GOP feeling: is it just that people feel Congess is ineffective?0 -
Would they need to be told? Would the privy council in general need to be told either?SquareRoot said:I'd actually bet money that no one in the Labour party was told anything about Jihadi John on privy council terms. Its the price Labour are paying for Corbyn's beliefs.. I expect it will come out soon so as to damage Corbyn even more as a man who rightly cannot be trusted.
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I think the Remain vote is very likely to be sub-60% but Shadsy looks like he's priced that market right to me, so I'm not playing for now.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Surprisingly, Ladbrokes is so far the only major bookie to offer banded odds on the percentage vote in favour of "Remain" in the forthcoming referendum.
Cameron's ultra weak and furthermore negotiable demands makes the whole exercise appear to be something of a joke.
Such "demands" appear likely to strengthen marginally the Leave vote to between 35% - 45% imho, with the Remain vote therefore coming in at between 55% - 65%. It is difficult to imagine that the result will be outside these parameters.
If I'm right, then by staking 60.87% at decimal odds of 4.5 on Laddies' 55% - 60% Remain band and the remaining 39.13% at odds of 7.0 on their 60% - 65% Remain band produces winning combined odds were either element to prove successful of 2.74 (or almost 7/4 in old money).
As ever, DYOR.
If Leave do win, they will will narrowly, so the 45-50% Remain band might be better value to bet on if you think that the referendum will go the way of the BOO'ers.0 -
Just usual Tory Fan Boys lying and obfuscating with misleading financial data.DavidL said:
Another economic illiterate. This is a capital asset that reflects public debt that was invested in Northern Rock. It won't affect Osborne's borrowing target at all and it really should not be used to finance current spending.TheScreamingEagles said:@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.
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He has a little list.Innocent_Abroad said:
Who else would you like to torture to death?SouthamObserver said:The one regret I have about Jihadi John's demise is that it would have been sudden and he would have known very little about it. He may have been too far gone insane to feel real, gut-wrenching, puke-inducing fear, but I'd love for him to have been given the opportunity.
Mostly those who voted in Jeremy Corbyn, I'm guessing....0 -
Like future oil revenues, malc?malcolmg said:
Just usual Tory Fan Boys lying and obfuscating with misleading financial data.DavidL said:
Another economic illiterate. This is a capital asset that reflects public debt that was invested in Northern Rock. It won't affect Osborne's borrowing target at all and it really should not be used to finance current spending.TheScreamingEagles said:@georgeeaton: Osborne's windfall of £13bn from Northern Rock mortgage sale gives him even more room to limit tax credit cuts.
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BT CALL GUARDIAN 8500 is even better. reduced nonsense calls to virtually zeroOldKingCole said:
I wouldn’t at all mind being asked a genuine question on political matters, but all of the “opinion pollers” from whom I used to get calls were thinly disguised marketing exercises. And I got a lot of them.MarqueeMark said:TheScreamingEagles said:New research suggests why general election polls were so inaccurate
Study conducted immediately after vote indicates that sampling in earlier polls may not have been random enough
http://bit.ly/1WVMqIC
No surprise there. Several of us on here were saying for ages that if you want to hide from the pollsters, it is very easy to do so these days... Basic question: do pollsters come up on mobiles as "number blocked"? If so, most won't answer. Even if it displays a number, many won't answer a number they don't recognise. Do pollsters leave a voice message and ask people to recontact them? Probably not is my guess, if they doing polls on the cheapest possible contact price.
And those who are signed up to panels are disproportionately politically aware.
Plus calls from “Microsoft’s Technical Department”, whose operatives offered to get inside my computer and remove malware. As a Mac user ......
So I signed up to caller display and unless it’s a local number, or one that we recognise my wife just ignore the calls. We listen 1571 afterwards and if it’s important a message will be left.0 -
Best wishes Cyclefree, my thoughts are with you.Cyclefree said:
Thanks for your and others kind words last night. I am keeping myself busy so that I don't have time to brood. I just wish I got the results one way or the other.NickPalmer said:Another German poll showing Merkel's support recovering - which even I think is surprising at this point:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
My offer to AndyJS and Regiecide to take up with a £10 bet Andy's prediction that CDU support would soon drop below 30% remains open...
Anyway I see that the government is thinking of adopting the very same policies on withdrawal of benefits from British people that we were debating here the other day. If true, doesn't it suggest that Cameron has already abandoned the first of his renegotiation demands about withdrawal of benefits from migrants, which would take a change in EU law?0 -
Just catching up on FPT - fingers crossed and best wishes.
PS And I thought your comments re doctors strike were bloody spot on.Cyclefree said:
Thanks for your and others kind words last night. I am keeping myself busy so that I don't have time to brood. I just wish I got the results one way or the other.NickPalmer said:Another German poll showing Merkel's support recovering - which even I think is surprising at this point:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
My offer to AndyJS and Regiecide to take up with a £10 bet Andy's prediction that CDU support would soon drop below 30% remains open...
Anyway I see that the government is thinking of adopting the very same policies on withdrawal of benefits from British people that we were debating here the other day. If true, doesn't it suggest that Cameron has already abandoned the first of his renegotiation demands about withdrawal of benefits from migrants, which would take a change in EU law?0
