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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GOP nomination race: Pollsters now asking, with a serio

The reason, of course, for this polling question is that current front-runner for the Republican nomination, the former neuro surgeon Ben Carson, has put forward an astonishing theory about their origin. This from Buzzfeed.
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McClatchy/Marist National Republican Primary
Carson – 24%
Trump – 23%
Rubio – 11%
Cruz – 8%
Bush – 8%
Paul – 5%
Kasich – 4%
Fiorina – 3%
Huckabee – 3%
Christie – 2%
Pataki – 1%
Jindal – 1%
Santorum – 1%
Gilmore – *
Graham – *
Undecided – 4%
The more you hear about _________, do you like them more/like them less?
Carson – 67/20
Rubio – 58/27
Cruz – 51/31
Fiorina – 46/34
Trump – 44/49
Bush – 32/58
Who would you definitely NOT vote for?
Trump – 37%
Bush – 32%
Fiorina – 13%
Rubio – 6%
Cruz – 6%
Carson – 3%
General Election Matchups
Clinton – 50%
Carson – 48%
Clinton – 50%
Rubio – 45%
Clinton – 52%
Bush – 44%
Clinton – 53%
Cruz – 43%
Clinton – 56%
Trump – 41%
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article43727049.ece/BINARY/How the survey was conducted
"Say what you like but slavery gets shit done!"
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 6/1
10-15 5/2
15-20 12/5
20-25 5/1
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/1
Match bets
Ukip 1/6 vs Con 7/2
Con 1/6 vs Libs 7/2
Labour winning margin uo 16 5/6
ye gods.
The SNP does not control the amount of money it has to spend outside of certain very strict parameters. Not only that but the SNP administration at Holyrood has implemented LOW TAX policies which have REDUCED the amount of money that it could potentially spend (for example if allowed rises in Council Tax).
This is typical of the insistence amongst Loyalists to present "SNP bad" despite their arguments being absolutely counter to the evidence in front of them.
Nothing the SNP has done has had a negative impact on Scotland's fictional deficit.
The surprise is it is only a third!!
Europe is horrible for the tories.
Though I think there's some evidence that the labourers were free.
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS/queries/008
Carson has his pyramids.
Cameron has Tory Unity on Europe.
And yet so did Ronald Reagen. I think Carson as president would be like Reagen Mark II, he brings a strong Conservative message but it is a very positive one.
I'd be voting for him if I could over in the USA.
And in the long term, I am certain Scotland will be Independent so it would no longer be an issue anyway. England would be free to grow its economy as she sees fit.
But can anyone tell me how you scroll down to see the whole day - eg in link you can only see down to 17.57 (ie 5.57pm). How do you see before that?
The same problem arises every day.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-34765915#live-text-stream
However, what (non-Tories) fail to understand is that there is no appetite whatsoever to split the party on this. Those figures are broadly correct: 30-40 pro-EU Conservative MPs, 90-120 Leavers and the government payroll and those who aspire to it will toe Cameron's line.
But the party will campaign differently, vote, and then come together again.
The main impact of the EU referendum (let's face it, Remain will win) will be on the next Tory leadership contest.
That favours Boris and May over Osborne when it all starts to unravel, except the former candidate is more obviously opportunist.
At the end of the day, if you want to defend your national interest, you need to step up to the plate - and pay for it.
It might be that the live stream only keeps the last 20 or so items - and that's it.
The same happens on Twitter, if you keep scrolling down your timeline you will reach the end. On Twitter it's about 800 items, though.
"Say what you like but government gets shit done"
or
"Say what you like but religion gets shit done"
So we can see what happened in Parliament yesterday from 8.45pm until the end of the day.
Seems completely bizarre.
Amateur hour maths is why Scotland is not independent. The unionist side was able to scare people into voting No and they had a very easy time of it because the Yes figures were laughable, just like yours.
Using Safari on an iPad, it used to be possible to clear history without wiping cookies, which was a very useful thing to be able to do. For some bizarre reason they've now changed it so that you can only clear history and cookies at the same time. People are discussing it here:
https://discussions.apple.com/thread/7219147
That's interesting. UKIP have been sounding very bullish about old labour voters being appalled by Corbyn.
There's quite a bit at stake for UKIP, actually.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d517b2e4-87b7-11e5-8a12-b0ce506400af.html#axzz3r7fDlffT
how many more such gems of coverage not shown on the night (now watched once or twice on iplayer) are there out there for me still to unearth and enjoy.......
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099
bong....
Only Steve remains from original lineup.
Last time I saw them Brian Connelly had to be helped on stage and was held up at various stages by other band members he was so pissed.
Listened to most of concert then noticed everyone was getting their money back due to the aforesaid BC state. Got full refund and listened to finale in foyer.
BC was dead within a year.
They are not
@michaelsavage: This sounds dangerously like central command and control. Surely not. https://t.co/1p2xPXXQl8
Neither the economic Conservative, nor the social conservative, would see anything appealing in Corbyn.
A predictions thread may while away the dark nights...
I think the EU will hope if they give in on 'ever closer union' and protection of the non-Eurozone economy, they'll have given enough to sway enough people (and let's be honest, Cameron will also present this as a victory and campaign to remain).
I still think the result is somewhat up in the air. Remain has the definite edge, but you could easily see public opinion swinging depending on events and the narrative that arises from the renegotiation.
This beggar thy neighbour stuff, insomuch as it has any effect (for example if English firms were discriminated against for Scottish Government contracts in favour of continental competitors), would be bad for Scotland because would reduce the UK's tax base and make Scottish citizens poorer. It would reduce the capacity of England to buy Scottish products now.
To me it just seems like an emotional need to offer some slight to England whether it benefits Scotland or harms her.
One things for sure, the EU aren't
I think Vardy will be fine. Might get piles from sitting on the bench. It is clear that Roy does not like him or rate him.
Settle up after the result
As if it's not huge and unwieldy enough as it is.
I really hope Vardy breaks RVN's record - he's fantastic. The problem with football today is that too many managers are concerned by what the press/fans think. Rooney has failed to deliver at a number of tournaments and it's about time we tried someone else.
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/664190551005265922
I think 32 teams is about right. However, I'd have only the eight group winners progress to a second group phase with the winners of those groups playing in the final. Football is best when three points for a win are up for grabs.
But this is great news! -
Rugby Union is coming to the US -
http://usarugby.org/club-news/item/pro-rugby
https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/11/10/trump-carson-continue-lead-gop-field-jeb-bush-dips/?
Trump 32 (0)
Carson 18 (0)
Rubio 13 (+2)
Cruz 10 (+2)
Huckabee 4 (0) [Not in the debate]
Paul 4 (0)
Bush 3 (-5) [In the debate]
Fiorina 3 (0)
Christie 3 (+1) [Not in the debate]
Other key figures, Bush now more unfavourable that favourable with republicans, 75 & 74% of republicans respectively think that Carson and Trump can win the GE, Rubio at 64, Cruz at 55, and Bush at 44%, Trump also leads 49-11 on Immigration.
Interesting note in the wake of media pressure on Carson he has the lowest rating of people calling him to drop out at just 9%, and Trump beats Rubio with hispanics by 11-10.
A Danish relative of mine and teacher of politics sent me a puzzled mail today asking 'why is Cameron making all this fuss about nothing much?' Evidently something much meatier was expected. The expression Kejserens nye klaeder sprang to mind...
Wall to Wall LZ in heaven
Enough to make me rethink my atheist position
Vardy really, really want to wear that shirt in a major tournament, but Roy will start Kane, Rooney and Walcott, perhaps even Austin ahead of him. Vardy knows that the only way to breakthrough is with an un-ignorable tally of goals.
Remember: the pyramids were a government procurement project. They started off as mooring posts for alien spaceships, but they built the bases the wrong shape. They then decided to convert them to grain stores, but did not build enough cavities within. In the end they just decided to chuck their dead leaders in them.
And as with all government projects, they made the same mistakes several times before giving up and just building a large statue of cat. Even then they couldn't decide on what sort of cat, and added a beard because they had a little extra unspent money at end-of-year.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H506K66A3xo
On this renegotiation 'deal' he's clearly got Germany lined up behind the lot, so, if other EU partners do misbehave, he expects them to bring them into line.
I could only see him failing to recommend Remain if *all* of the EU rejected all of his demands outright, which will never happen of course.
And even then I'm not sure.
The virgins in question may be 1. Male 2. Non-human.
"The European Union realises the British prime minister needs a fight and a bloody nose to drown out criticisms back home that this EU reform process is a sham; that Mr Cameron's demands are wishy-washy and worthless.
They realise he needs a sense of drama. Of a bitter battle fought and won. And they are preparing to give it to him."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34770875