politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great grad-non grad voting divide in both the US and U
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great grad-non grad voting divide in both the US and UK
The above table highlights a big trend in the Republican primaries which has strong echoes in the UK. The quite different voting patterns of those who went to university and those who didn’t.
Comments
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First!0
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C'mon PB ... get with the programme....0
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I think I will open a bottle of red while I wait0
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Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels0
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I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
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Mrs C, don't blame us for your wine habit
Few more markets up on Ladbrokes. May actually have to start thinking about what my guess should be...0 -
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
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@realDonaldTrump 9 mins9 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
.@CBSNews Poll - WOW! New Hampshire TRUMP 38% CARSON 12% BUSH 8% South Carolina TRUMP 40% CARSON 23% CRUZ 8% Iowa TRUMP 27% CARSON 27%0 -
FPT, I think in the Series, she is heading in the direction of villain protagonist. But, I think that's a case where the Series has changed a book character into someone different from the books (Tyrion, by contrast, is far nicer in the Series than the books). In the books, she still has a cruel streak, but much less than in the Series.JEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
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There's nothing close to double figures anywhere in there.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
As serious analysis this rates as Background Meh.0 -
Oh for goodness sake, there are still over 10 candidates in the race so it would be extremely difficult at this stage for there to be a more than 10% difference but the trend is evident, Trump's core is white, male, non graduates sympathetic to the Tea PartyGeoffM said:
There's nothing close to double figures anywhere in there.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
As serious analysis this rates as Background Meh.0 -
There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.0 -
"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.
Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."
http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off0 -
Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the averageCasino_Royale said:
There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.0 -
That's a reasonable outline of the report (I'm reading it through again but it's 200 pages of dry analysis and all the damn sport keeps getting in the way!). As most commentators have said it leaves more questions than answers.rcs1000 said:0 -
Betting Post
Backed Perez and Hulkenberg to be top 6 at just over evens with Betfair.
Bet works in rain or dry, but as dry's forecast they should be able to pass the Red Bulls early on, at the straights. Both skilled drivers and starting far up the grid diminishes the chances of lap 1 collateral damage.
I'll put the pre-race piece up shortly. [NB Post-race will go up tomorrow, most likely].0 -
Here's the pre-race piece:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/us-pre-race.html0 -
I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!0
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Right, I am off the watch the rugby. Then have tea. Then watch the F1.0
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Trump twists the knife “I did talk about Jeb because I thought Jeb was going to be the front-runner,” Trump told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “Obviously, he’s no longer the front-runner. I probably won’t talk about him so much anymore."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-jeb-bush-jabs_562cde8ee4b0aac0b8fd28980 -
I think the de-selections will happen with the reduced seat numbers and boundary changes, it's inevitable that the likes of Danzcuk will be out if Rochdale is affected.AndyJS said:"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.
Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."
http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off
Though no one knows when the boundary changes will be adopted, and I don't know how long the new selections process will take for the old MP's to be thrown out from the moment the seats and boundaries change, and also if the MP resigns after the new boundaries have been adopted will the by-election use the old ones even if the seat is abolished.0 -
If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.0
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Hic!Morris_Dancer said:Mrs C, don't blame us for your wine habit
I have moved on to Sunday dinner prep. Pork and apple....
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It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a wholeAndyJS said:If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/0 -
That's true.tlg86 said:I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!
Though a better education has shown that it reduces and breaks down old stereotypes and prejudgments by creating new ones.
I think university graduates are a reflection of social conditions in their classes, most of them are multicultural with many foreigners and have lots of travel in foreign countries, plus on matters of sex they are always more open, also their education gives them a sense of privilege of opinion over others hence their strong mindedness of excluding others with different thinking.
In conclusion, it's a very authoritarian liberal environment.
It's a change since the past when universities where festered with communism, though they are still the worlds trouble makers like they are always through history.0 -
I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.HYUFD said:
Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the averageCasino_Royale said:
There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.
There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.0 -
You mean the difference is clear: we can't read a trend into it.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
Sure, there's a difference, but that difference is small compared to his support vis-a-vis other candidates. It's like people saying that UKIP does poorly in London, when they are actually the third most supported party there. People like to look into minor data variances to create stereotypes.0 -
Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.HYUFD said:
It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a wholeAndyJS said:If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/0 -
I'd agree with that. I'd also suggest you'd get a much larger difference if you broke down where those graduates lived and what they did for a living.HYUFD said:
It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a wholeAndyJS said:If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
A graduate banker who's a homeowner and commutes daily from Kent is likely to have different politics from one working in new media, or for a major NGO, and houseshares in Hackney.0 -
In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national averageCasino_Royale said:
I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.HYUFD said:
Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the averageCasino_Royale said:
There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.
There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.0 -
In my experience, graduate professionals can be just as prejudiced in their beliefs as any other group. It's just a different set of prejudices: If something is seen as 'open-minded', 'international' or 'modern' then young graduates tend to support it, even if they have very little knowledge of the issue.Speedy said:
That's true.tlg86 said:I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!
Though a better education has shown that it reduces and breaks down old stereotypes and prejudgments by creating new ones.
I think university graduates are a reflection of social conditions in their classes, most of them are multicultural with many foreigners and have lots of travel in foreign countries, plus on matters of sex they are always more open, also their education gives them a sense of privilege of opinion over others hence their strong mindedness of excluding others with different thinking.
In conclusion, it's a very authoritarian liberal environment.
It's a change since the past when universities where festered with communism, though they are still the worlds trouble makers like they are always through history.0 -
Thankfully most people out there are not like PBerstlg86 said:I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!
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Trump needs to concentrate his fire on Rubio. For all Trump's flaws, he does seem to be excellent at trolling other candidates.HYUFD said:Trump twists the knife “I did talk about Jeb because I thought Jeb was going to be the front-runner,” Trump told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “Obviously, he’s no longer the front-runner. I probably won’t talk about him so much anymore."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-jeb-bush-jabs_562cde8ee4b0aac0b8fd28980 -
The right expression should be "it's more/less likely to support candidate X if you are of background Y", for Trump it's 25% less likely to support if you are a university graduate but 15% more likely to support him if you are not a graduate.JEO said:
You mean the difference is clear: we can't read a trend into it.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
Sure, there's a difference, but that difference is small compared to his support vis-a-vis other candidates. It's like people saying that UKIP does poorly in London, when they are actually the third most supported party there. People like to look into minor data variances to create stereotypes.0 -
I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.HYUFD said:
In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national averageCasino_Royale said:
I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.HYUFD said:
Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the averageCasino_Royale said:
There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.
There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.
Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.0 -
Oh, absolutely.JEO said:
In my experience, graduate professionals can be just as prejudiced in their beliefs as any other group. It's just a different set of prejudices: If something is seen as 'open-minded', 'international' or 'modern' then young graduates tend to support it, even if they have very little knowledge of the issue.Speedy said:
That's true.tlg86 said:I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!
Though a better education has shown that it reduces and breaks down old stereotypes and prejudgments by creating new ones.
I think university graduates are a reflection of social conditions in their classes, most of them are multicultural with many foreigners and have lots of travel in foreign countries, plus on matters of sex they are always more open, also their education gives them a sense of privilege of opinion over others hence their strong mindedness of excluding others with different thinking.
In conclusion, it's a very authoritarian liberal environment.
It's a change since the past when universities where festered with communism, though they are still the worlds trouble makers like they are always through history.0 -
I don't think so, if anything younger graduates polled are more economically conservative than older graduates, even if more socially liberal. Remember only 10% or so of older people will be graduates compared to at least 35-40% of the young.AndyJS said:
Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.HYUFD said:
It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a wholeAndyJS said:If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
It is really UKIP who do worst amongst graduates, they get their lowest score with them, doing 14% worse than those with only GCSEs or lower, by contrast the Tories did only 3% worse with graduates than those with only GCSEs or lower. The LDs did best with graduates, doing 6% better than those with only GCSEs or lower, even better than the Greens who did 4% better. Labour did slightly better, getting a 3% higher voteshare with graduates than those with GCSEs or lower. The SNP did better with those with just A Levels than either with graduates or those with just GCSEs or below
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/0 -
A lot of older professional people will also not have gone to university, but rather qualified while they were working. I could see that route becoming a lot more popular again, with people who don't want to pay student fees.AndyJS said:
Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.HYUFD said:
It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a wholeAndyJS said:If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/0 -
In the UK, there is also the generation gap of younger people being far more likely to attend university than older people.AndyJS said:
Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.HYUFD said:
It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a wholeAndyJS said:If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
The thread header premise is interesting to play with but, as others have said, the numbers don't seem all that different, really.
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Agree entirely, graduates who vote in the private sector are more likely to vote Tory, those who work in the public sector to vote Labour for exampleCasino_Royale said:
I'd agree with that. I'd also suggest you'd get a much larger difference if you broke down where those graduates lived and what they did for a living.HYUFD said:
It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a wholeAndyJS said:If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
A graduate banker who's a homeowner and commutes daily from Kent is likely to have different politics from one working in new media, or for a major NGO, and houseshares in Hackney.0 -
Indeed but he has already called Rubio 'a perfect little puppet for donors'JEO said:
Trump needs to concentrate his fire on Rubio. For all Trump's flaws, he does seem to be excellent at trolling other candidates.HYUFD said:Trump twists the knife “I did talk about Jeb because I thought Jeb was going to be the front-runner,” Trump told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “Obviously, he’s no longer the front-runner. I probably won’t talk about him so much anymore."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-jeb-bush-jabs_562cde8ee4b0aac0b8fd2898
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/256737-trump-rubio-a-perfect-little-puppet0 -
Maybe, but the fact that graduates are more likely to vote than non-graduates will help InCasino_Royale said:
I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.HYUFD said:
In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national averageCasino_Royale said:
I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.HYUFD said:
Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the averageCasino_Royale said:
There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.
There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.
Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.0 -
That's another thing, what if the passionate Outers vote but the meh Inners don't bother much?Casino_Royale said:
I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.HYUFD said:
In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national averageCasino_Royale said:
I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.HYUFD said:
Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the averageCasino_Royale said:
There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.
There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.
Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.
Going through the opinion polls the only thing I found about the likelihood to vote is the ICM enthusiasm for the referendum, which is twice as much for those who want to leave than for those who want to remain.0 -
The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.0
-
I think it's about a preference with order when it comes to that profession.SandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
0 -
Passionate Outers are at most 1/3 of the electorate, graduates vote more often than non-graduates and are more likely to back InSpeedy said:
That's another thing, what if the passionate Outers vote but the meh Inners don't bother much?Casino_Royale said:
I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.HYUFD said:
In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national averageCasino_Royale said:
I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.HYUFD said:
Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the averageCasino_Royale said:
There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.
There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.
Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.
Going through the opinion polls the only thing I found about the likelihood to vote is the ICM enthusiasm for the referendum, which is twice as much for those who want to leave than for those who want to remain.0 -
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics0 -
That didn't help Labour though in the GE.HYUFD said:
Passionate Outers are at most 1/3 of the electorate, graduates vote more often than non-graduates and are more likely to back InSpeedy said:
That's another thing, what if the passionate Outers vote but the meh Inners don't bother much?Casino_Royale said:
I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.HYUFD said:
In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national averageCasino_Royale said:
I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.HYUFD said:
Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the averageCasino_Royale said:HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.
There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.
Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.
Going through the opinion polls the only thing I found about the likelihood to vote is the ICM enthusiasm for the referendum, which is twice as much for those who want to leave than for those who want to remain.
I think the closest comparison will be not the GE but somewhere between the AV referendum and the scottish referendum.
Because in terms of importance the EU referendum is more important than the AV one but less important than the scottish one and nowhere close enough to a GE.0 -
As I have already pointed out Tories won graduates in May and UKIP did worst with them.Speedy said:
That didn't help Labour though in the GE.HYUFD said:
Passionate Outers are at most 1/3 of the electorate, graduates vote more often than non-graduates and are more likely to back InSpeedy said:
That's another thing, what if the passionate Outers vote but the meh Inners don't bother much?Casino_Royale said:
I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.HYUFD said:
In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national averageCasino_Royale said:
I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.HYUFD said:
Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the averageCasino_Royale said:HYUFD said:
He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clearJEO said:
I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.HYUFD said:Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels
Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.
There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.
Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.
I think the closest comparison will be not the GE but somewhere between the AV referendum and the scottish referendum.
Because in terms of importance the EU referendum is more important than the AV one but less important than the scottish one and nowhere close enough to a GE.
0 -
Would it have been an abuse of power for Theresa May to ban Diego Maradona from the country?0
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I find Nuneaton fascinating. This year, 60% voted Conservative or UKIP, and less than 40% Labour/LD/Green.AndyJS said:
Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.HYUFD said:
It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a wholeAndyJS said:If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
In 1997, 65% voted Labour or LD and under 32% voted Conservative or UKIP.
Talk about a turnaround.0 -
By contrast the Conservative vote in Edgebaston has been remarkably steady at 36-39% since 1997.
I think it's hard to argue that it'd still be Labour now with anyone other than Gisela Stuart as the candidate.0 -
Strong female / male split in that profession (my profession) in my experience.SandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
0 -
So an Australia v New Zealand final in the Rugby World Cup, the same as the Cricket World Cup final in March0
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Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics0 -
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics0 -
It's a bit boring really.HYUFD said:So an Australia v New Zealand final in the Rugby World Cup, the same as the Cricket World Cup final in March
0 -
Although interestingly the All Blacks have never faced the Aussies in a Rugby World Cup final as yet, so it does at least have that novelty valueCasino_Royale said:
It's a bit boring really.HYUFD said:So an Australia v New Zealand final in the Rugby World Cup, the same as the Cricket World Cup final in March
0 -
Joyous news for our turnip farmers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html0 -
Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.RobD said:Joyous news for our turnip farmers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html0 -
Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.HYUFD said:
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics
0 -
Heh, I knew this would summon youmalcolmg said:
Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.RobD said:Joyous news for our turnip farmers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html
0 -
Difficult to know what to make of this Trump info without the key feature of race.Why the Democrats are such a good bet at 4-5,is largely demographic.My guess is that most of these Trumpers will be white and their numbers are shrinking short and long-term-there are not enough of them to beat the Democrats.The other 2 reasons are climate change policy where polls show the Koch funded deniers have lost there argument and drug policy-many of those polled might just change their mind when they find out if they vote Trump or Rubio,their weed is going to land them in gaol.Heroin now accounts for more deaths than road accidents in parts of the US.Neither Trump or the GOP have any other answers other than prison and the continuation of the prison-industrial complex.0
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I am ever presentRobD said:
Heh, I knew this would summon youmalcolmg said:
Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.RobD said:Joyous news for our turnip farmers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html0 -
We had a thread header last week showing voting patterns by newspaper, with Labour doing surprisingly well amongst FT readers, presumably CEOs and bankers.HYUFD said:
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/23/how-readers-of-the-different-national-papers-voted-at-ge2015/0 -
Ever vigilant, for you never know when a turnip may strike.malcolmg said:
I am ever presentRobD said:
Heh, I knew this would summon youmalcolmg said:
Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.RobD said:Joyous news for our turnip farmers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html0 -
Corbyn team hold out a branch of peace?
Andrew Fisher @AndrewFisher79
Dear @SimonDanczuk MP, if you're going to write right-wing propaganda for The Scum, fuck off and join the Tories (cc @UKLabour)
Retweeted by Sam Coates Times
0 -
The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.0 -
Indeed and Canada is now set to legalise marijuana with Trudeau now PMvolcanopete said:Difficult to know what to make of this Trump info without the key feature of race.Why the Democrats are such a good bet at 4-5,is largely demographic.My guess is that most of these Trumpers will be white and their numbers are shrinking short and long-term-there are not enough of them to beat the Democrats.The other 2 reasons are climate change policy where polls show the Koch funded deniers have lost there argument and drug policy-many of those polled might just change their mind when they find out if they vote Trump or Rubio,their weed is going to land them in gaol.Heroin now accounts for more deaths than road accidents in parts of the US.Neither Trump or the GOP have any other answers other than prison and the continuation of the prison-industrial complex.
0 -
I'm running desperately low on popcorn here!TCPoliticalBetting said:Corbyn team hold out a branch of peace?
Andrew Fisher @AndrewFisher79
Dear @SimonDanczuk MP, if you're going to write right-wing propaganda for The Scum, fuck off and join the Tories (cc @UKLabour)
Retweeted by Sam Coates Times0 -
Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing thenjayfdee said:
Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.HYUFD said:
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics0 -
I saw that but with FT readers the Tories were on over 40% ie above what they got nationally, it is just more FT readers voted Labour or LD than UKIP, hardly surprising really as the CBI is centre right but pro EUDecrepitJohnL said:
We had a thread header last week showing voting patterns by newspaper, with Labour doing surprisingly well amongst FT readers, presumably CEOs and bankers.HYUFD said:
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/23/how-readers-of-the-different-national-papers-voted-at-ge2015/0 -
What time is the Polish election exit poll published?0
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Scott is on every day so it is consistent, and then there are the fruitbats who make me despair but the rest make up for the dross.RobD said:
Ever vigilant, for you never know when a turnip may strike.malcolmg said:
I am ever presentRobD said:
Heh, I knew this would summon youmalcolmg said:
Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.RobD said:Joyous news for our turnip farmers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html0 -
UKIP attracts all sorts.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.
But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.
And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.0 -
Boundary changes happen at the next General Election always.Speedy said:
I think the de-selections will happen with the reduced seat numbers and boundary changes, it's inevitable that the likes of Danzcuk will be out if Rochdale is affected.AndyJS said:"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.
Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."
http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off
Though no one knows when the boundary changes will be adopted, and I don't know how long the new selections process will take for the old MP's to be thrown out from the moment the seats and boundaries change, and also if the MP resigns after the new boundaries have been adopted will the by-election use the old ones even if the seat is abolished.
If there is a by-election then the by-election must occur under old boundaries. Otherwise you could end up with the situation where someone has 2 MPs representing them ... and far worse you could end up with the situation where someone has nobody at all representing them.0 -
No that is what you read into it, strike too close to the bone did it? Methinks you doth protest too much.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
The fact is there is a difference and to bet successfully means to understand differences. To drop all discussions because someone might be offended by inference is an utterly absurd position to take.0 -
I'm not sure of the relevance of gay marriage but no matter, I know hundreds of ukip voters, I've never heard one of them be disparaging towards gay marriage. My Conservative MP is vehemently opposed to it and voted accordingly.rcs1000 said:
UKIP attracts all sorts.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.
But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.
And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.
0 -
OK then.Philip_Thompson said:
Boundary changes happen at the next General Election always.Speedy said:
I think the de-selections will happen with the reduced seat numbers and boundary changes, it's inevitable that the likes of Danzcuk will be out if Rochdale is affected.AndyJS said:"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.
Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."
http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off
Though no one knows when the boundary changes will be adopted, and I don't know how long the new selections process will take for the old MP's to be thrown out from the moment the seats and boundaries change, and also if the MP resigns after the new boundaries have been adopted will the by-election use the old ones even if the seat is abolished.
If there is a by-election then the by-election must occur under old boundaries. Otherwise you could end up with the situation where someone has 2 MPs representing them ... and far worse you could end up with the situation where someone has nobody at all representing them.
So if Rochdale is abolished, Danzcuk will cause a by-election, in case he is rejected from standing in other seats, some months before the GE in a seat that won't exist after a few months.
It won't be very interesting to see a by-election in a seat just before a GE that won't be fought in a GE simply because it will not exist, but everyone would be glad to get rid of Danzcuk a few months early.
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The only (serious) political party which had a policy of opposing gay marriage was UKIP.blackburn63 said:
I'm not sure of the relevance of gay marriage but no matter, I know hundreds of ukip voters, I've never heard one of them be disparaging towards gay marriage. My Conservative MP is vehemently opposed to it and voted accordingly.rcs1000 said:
UKIP attracts all sorts.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.
But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.
And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.
0 -
Being on the left-of-centre and believing strongly in honesty, I avoided a commercial career in favour of public service for the basic reason that I just don't want to have to sell people stuff they don't need, or face pressure to cheat or bend the rules to get ahead.HYUFD said:
Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing thenjayfdee said:
Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.HYUFD said:
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics
Now that I'm there I understand that those things still exist in the public sector, but I still like having a job with a moral purpose (NHS).
At some point it would be fun to start my own business, but not sure if I have the requisite skills.
All that to say, sometimes your philosophy dictates your career choices rather than vice versa.0 -
I mention patronising and you make my point nicely. Vanity always comes before a fall.Philip_Thompson said:
No that is what you read into it, strike too close to the bone did it? Methinks you doth protest too much.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
The fact is there is a difference and to bet successfully means to understand differences. To drop all discussions because someone might be offended by inference is an utterly absurd position to take.
When I left school very few went to uni, those that did almost without exception studied a worthwhile subject and went on to successful careers, now it seems that to tens of thousands every year uni is the end not the means.
0 -
so quite a momentous day for Lab.
From the sublime (Frank) saying he will form a Lab MP Citizens' Army to defend un-Jezza MPs, to Simon D doing his thing.
I wonder whether the public is actually noticing any of this. At some point surely they will see in front of them the chaos. I mean it hardly requires too incisive analysis or priveleged information to work out what's happening. It is happening in broad daylight for all to see.
Or does the public not particularly care as long as they have someone left-ish to put a tick against or tell polls they are fans of.0 -
I'm really not sure of your point, I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. I couldn't care less who marries who as long as it's consensual.rcs1000 said:
The only (serious) political party which had a policy of opposing gay marriage was UKIP.blackburn63 said:
I'm not sure of the relevance of gay marriage but no matter, I know hundreds of ukip voters, I've never heard one of them be disparaging towards gay marriage. My Conservative MP is vehemently opposed to it and voted accordingly.rcs1000 said:
UKIP attracts all sorts.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.
But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.
And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.
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What an unexpected day.... england to win tomorrow then....0
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It was one of the reasons of why UKIP suddenly appeared on radar in 2012.rcs1000 said:
The only (serious) political party which had a policy of opposing gay marriage was UKIP.blackburn63 said:
I'm not sure of the relevance of gay marriage but no matter, I know hundreds of ukip voters, I've never heard one of them be disparaging towards gay marriage. My Conservative MP is vehemently opposed to it and voted accordingly.rcs1000 said:
UKIP attracts all sorts.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.
But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.
And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.
The others were immigration and general dissatisfaction with the LD.
However UKIP can never move upwards if it doesn't expand it's policy ranges, simply adding some social policies like immigration and gay marriage expanded them from 3% to 13%, but they need 15% to start to gain seats.0 -
How classy by team JC. new politics is a pleasureRobD said:
I'm running desperately low on popcorn here!TCPoliticalBetting said:Corbyn team hold out a branch of peace?
Andrew Fisher @AndrewFisher79
Dear @SimonDanczuk MP, if you're going to write right-wing propaganda for The Scum, fuck off and join the Tories (cc @UKLabour)
Retweeted by Sam Coates Times0 -
Well, I'm a post-graduate, who's a member of UKIP. Given that 80% of university staff vote Labour, Green, or SNP, it's no surprise there's a high degree of left-wing groupthink among recent graduates.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.0 -
All MPs cease to exist at a General Election by definition. Whether it is more interesting to fight an election under the new or the old boundaries isn't relevant, what is relevant is that the constituents of the old boundaries are without representation and need a new MP electing.Speedy said:
OK then.Philip_Thompson said:
Boundary changes happen at the next General Election always.Speedy said:
I think the de-selections will happen with the reduced seat numbers and boundary changes, it's inevitable that the likes of Danzcuk will be out if Rochdale is affected.AndyJS said:"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.
Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."
http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off
Though no one knows when the boundary changes will be adopted, and I don't know how long the new selections process will take for the old MP's to be thrown out from the moment the seats and boundaries change, and also if the MP resigns after the new boundaries have been adopted will the by-election use the old ones even if the seat is abolished.
If there is a by-election then the by-election must occur under old boundaries. Otherwise you could end up with the situation where someone has 2 MPs representing them ... and far worse you could end up with the situation where someone has nobody at all representing them.
So if Rochdale is abolished, Danzcuk will cause a by-election, in case he is rejected from standing in other seats, some months before the GE in a seat that won't exist after a few months.
It won't be very interesting to see a by-election in a seat just before a GE that won't be fought in a GE simply because it will not exist, but everyone would be glad to get rid of Danzcuk a few months early.0 -
Sometimes one may lead to the other but that does not deny the general point that arts/humanities/politics and sociology graduates who work in the public sector are more likely to vote for centre left parties and STEM and particularly economics and business graduates who work in the private sector to vote for centre right partiesFreggles said:
Being on the left-of-centre and believing strongly in honesty, I avoided a commercial career in favour of public service for the basic reason that I just don't want to have to sell people stuff they don't need, or face pressure to cheat or bend the rules to get ahead.HYUFD said:
Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing thenjayfdee said:
Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.HYUFD said:
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics
Now that I'm there I understand that those things still exist in the public sector, but I still like having a job with a moral purpose (NHS).
At some point it would be fun to start my own business, but not sure if I have the requisite skills.
All that to say, sometimes your philosophy dictates your career choices rather than vice versa.0 -
I never said that non-graduate = thick, not did the OP. I just said you were protesting too much. In fact if you press Ctrl+F and search for the word thick (or thickos) on this entire page you were the only person to have used the word. So its not vanity, you read that into it yourself and what you are doing now is called transference.blackburn63 said:
I mention patronising and you make my point nicely. Vanity always comes before a fall.Philip_Thompson said:
No that is what you read into it, strike too close to the bone did it? Methinks you doth protest too much.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
The fact is there is a difference and to bet successfully means to understand differences. To drop all discussions because someone might be offended by inference is an utterly absurd position to take.
When I left school very few went to uni, those that did almost without exception studied a worthwhile subject and went on to successful careers, now it seems that to tens of thousands every year uni is the end not the means.0 -
Do you think the person who sold you the computer of smartphone that you are using to post on PB agonises over selling people stuff they don't need?Freggles said:
Being on the left-of-centre and believing strongly in honesty, I avoided a commercial career in favour of public service for the basic reason that I just don't want to have to sell people stuff they don't need, or face pressure to cheat or bend the rules to get ahead.HYUFD said:
Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing thenjayfdee said:
Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.HYUFD said:
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics
Now that I'm there I understand that those things still exist in the public sector, but I still like having a job with a moral purpose (NHS).
At some point it would be fun to start my own business, but not sure if I have the requisite skills.
All that to say, sometimes your philosophy dictates your career choices rather than vice versa.0 -
Sometimes when discussing football a Man Utd fan will say: well you support Bournemouth, what do you know about football?Philip_Thompson said:
I never said that non-graduate = thick, not did the OP. I just said you were protesting too much. In fact if you press Ctrl+F and search for the word thick (or thickos) on this entire page you were the only person to have used the word. So its not vanity, you read that into it yourself and what you are doing now is called transference.blackburn63 said:
I mention patronising and you make my point nicely. Vanity always comes before a fall.Philip_Thompson said:
No that is what you read into it, strike too close to the bone did it? Methinks you doth protest too much.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
The fact is there is a difference and to bet successfully means to understand differences. To drop all discussions because someone might be offended by inference is an utterly absurd position to take.
When I left school very few went to uni, those that did almost without exception studied a worthwhile subject and went on to successful careers, now it seems that to tens of thousands every year uni is the end not the means.
What happens on here is that conservatives appoint themselves experts based on the fact the party they vote for won a general election, they are quick to patronise and abuse supporters of other parties purely because their team won.
Of course that doesn't apply to all, some are very polite and reasonable, it tends to be the young and naive who have yet to realise that in politics never lasts for long and hubris gets the better of everybody.
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Meh, if the press had paid as much attention to Corbyn as they do to Danczuc et al then Labour would have spent the whole of the Blair government in "chaos".TOPPING said:so quite a momentous day for Lab.
From the sublime (Frank) saying he will form a Lab MP Citizens' Army to defend un-Jezza MPs, to Simon D doing his thing.
I wonder whether the public is actually noticing any of this. At some point surely they will see in front of them the chaos. I mean it hardly requires too incisive analysis or priveleged information to work out what's happening. It is happening in broad daylight for all to see.
Or does the public not particularly care as long as they have someone left-ish to put a tick against or tell polls they are fans of.
There is in fact serious trouble in the parliamentary party, but it's not about this tiny band of malcontents doing the media rounds.0 -
Oh, selling things isn't immoral most of the time. But it's for other people.TOPPING said:
Do you think the person who sold you the computer of smartphone that you are using to post on PB agonises over selling people stuff they don't need?Freggles said:
Being on the left-of-centre and believing strongly in honesty, I avoided a commercial career in favour of public service for the basic reason that I just don't want to have to sell people stuff they don't need, or face pressure to cheat or bend the rules to get ahead.HYUFD said:
Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing thenjayfdee said:
Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.HYUFD said:
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics
Now that I'm there I understand that those things still exist in the public sector, but I still like having a job with a moral purpose (NHS).
At some point it would be fun to start my own business, but not sure if I have the requisite skills.
All that to say, sometimes your philosophy dictates your career choices rather than vice versa.
I think I also perceived that there would be more toxic office politics and having to 'sell yourself' to go further in the private sector... again, I think an oversimplified view of the world.0 -
No ,Teachers when I were a lad, were very definitely Right wing and considered professionals.HYUFD said:
Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing thenjayfdee said:
Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.HYUFD said:
Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankersjayfdee said:
Yep that fits me.HYUFD said:
In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something likeSandyRentool said:The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.
Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics
I had little choice,my upbringing was pre determined, the Grammar school I attended had only one way out, that was University.
The careers advisory tutor, was staggered when I chose Engineering,we were supposed to choose Priesthood, and second best Religious studies Teacher.
Engineering taught a logical discipline, employment and running a business, finished my training,and that is how I became moderately right wing.0 -
It depends on who they vote for, the MP or the party.TOPPING said:so quite a momentous day for Lab.
From the sublime (Frank) saying he will form a Lab MP Citizens' Army to defend un-Jezza MPs, to Simon D doing his thing.
I wonder whether the public is actually noticing any of this. At some point surely they will see in front of them the chaos. I mean it hardly requires too incisive analysis or priveleged information to work out what's happening. It is happening in broad daylight for all to see.
Or does the public not particularly care as long as they have someone left-ish to put a tick against or tell polls they are fans of.
I'm willing to bet that mostly people vote for the party although MP's can have large personal votes it's not enough to overcome the party vote.
Lets say that for instance Liz Kendall needs a by-election, she is:
a.Not very popular with Labour voters.
b.Popular among Tory voters.
So she would need a minimum of 10% of the electorate to be her own personal vote assuming a full commitment by the Tory party to support her and without any Tory leaks to UKIP if the Tory-Kendall candidacy becomes unappealing to some Tories.
Similarly Danzcuk will need an even larger minimum personal vote (14%) to at least cost Labour the seat.0 -
Few voters support a party following an actuarial style analysis of policies. NickP has expressed the view that affinities are more value and impression based, and I am with him on this. Grads are different in their experience of the world, so it is not surprising that their values and responses are different to non grads.rcs1000 said:
UKIP attracts all sorts.blackburn63 said:The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.
UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.
For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.
But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.
And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.
The implications for the EUref are that voters are going to be swayed by similar factors. The winning side is going to be the one that has the meme that appeals to the majority.0 -
oh. What with the silence I thought I had won PB.William_H said:
Meh, if the press had paid as much attention to Corbyn as they do to Danczuc et al then Labour would have spent the whole of the Blair government in "chaos".TOPPING said:so quite a momentous day for Lab.
From the sublime (Frank) saying he will form a Lab MP Citizens' Army to defend un-Jezza MPs, to Simon D doing his thing.
I wonder whether the public is actually noticing any of this. At some point surely they will see in front of them the chaos. I mean it hardly requires too incisive analysis or priveleged information to work out what's happening. It is happening in broad daylight for all to see.
Or does the public not particularly care as long as they have someone left-ish to put a tick against or tell polls they are fans of.
There is in fact serious trouble in the parliamentary party, but it's not about this tiny band of malcontents doing the media rounds.
Anyway, my point was that many people may have known, suspected or guessed that there was the mother of all internecine battles going on within Lab and between Blair/Brown.
But in public it was all smiles and business as usual.
You had to be relatively geeky or politico-y to work it out. But this is front and centre all over the papers, radio, you name it.
Hence my question - which perhaps you have answered. The public is not interested in politics to a hitherto (to me) unthought of degree.0
