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Liberals now up to 83 Tories 44 NDP 11 BQ 1

HYUFD said:

Liberals now up to 83 Tories 44 NDP 11 BQ 1

Still only 30 seats declared though.

The question is only now whether he has a majority or minority government it seems

Liberals up to 118 now, Tories 68, NDP 13, BQ 2
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Liberals leading in Glengarry in Ottowa, Tories won with 48% in 2011

Does that actually mean anything though?

Yes, as CBC now projecting the Liberals have won the election

No, in that particular seat. The Liberals could be ahead after one vote is counted, for instance.

No, CBC have projected now the Liberals have won the general election and that Trudeau will be the next PM of Canada

Are you not reading what I posted? I asked if the fact that the liberals were ahead based on partial figures in a seat where the Tories got 48% was actually useful. The better comparator would be the vote share in those precincts that had declared.

Maybe, but the projection is clear, Trudeau has won, the only issue now is the margin. I am off to bed soon and will confirm position in the morning

The overall projection has nothing to do with what I am saying.

HYUFD said:

Liberals now over 150 on 152, Tories 87 NDP 21 BQ 5
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics

But only 33 declared

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Liberals leading in Glengarry in Ottowa, Tories won with 48% in 2011

Does that actually mean anything though?

Yes, as CBC now projecting the Liberals have won the election

No, in that particular seat. The Liberals could be ahead after one vote is counted, for instance.

No, CBC have projected now the Liberals have won the general election and that Trudeau will be the next PM of Canada

Are you not reading what I posted? I asked if the fact that the liberals were ahead based on partial figures in a seat where the Tories got 48% was actually useful. The better comparator would be the vote share in those precincts that had declared.

Maybe, but the projection is clear, Trudeau has won, the only issue now is the margin. I am off to bed soon and will confirm position in the morning

The overall projection has nothing to do with what I am saying.

The Liberals presently lead in 158, Tories in 94, NDP 27, BQ 8. I don't think there is much doubt of the result now
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Liberals leading in Glengarry in Ottowa, Tories won with 48% in 2011

Does that actually mean anything though?

Yes, as CBC now projecting the Liberals have won the election

No, in that particular seat. The Liberals could be ahead after one vote is counted, for instance.

No, CBC have projected now the Liberals have won the general election and that Trudeau will be the next PM of Canada

Are you not reading what I posted? I asked if the fact that the liberals were ahead based on partial figures in a seat where the Tories got 48% was actually useful. The better comparator would be the vote share in those precincts that had declared.

Maybe, but the projection is clear, Trudeau has won, the only issue now is the margin. I am off to bed soon and will confirm position in the morning

The overall projection has nothing to do with what I am saying.

The Liberals presently lead in 158, Tories in 94, NDP 27, BQ 8. I don't think there is much doubt of the result now
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics

But they don't. Check how many are actually declared.

The vote share says it all:
Lib: 47.7%
Con:28.1%
NDP: 17.7%

http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

Speedy said:

The vote share says it all:
Lib: 47.7%
Con:28.1%
NDP: 17.7%

http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

With the caveat that is based on ~15% of the vote.

RobD said:

Speedy said:

The vote share says it all:
Lib: 47.7%
Con:28.1%
NDP: 17.7%

http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

With the caveat that is based on ~15% of the vote.

You are clutching at straws, the trend is clear. Anyway, I am calling it for Trudeau now and a Liberal majority, quite a comeback from third in 2011, will check if any further surprises in the morning. Night

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

The vote share says it all:
Lib: 47.7%
Con:28.1%
NDP: 17.7%

http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.

Agree with most of that except Trudeau's Liberals are not socially conservative

They are to the right of the NDP on social issues.
When Harper attacked islam the NDP was forced to defend it for ideological reasons, but canadians hate islam as much as they hate the Tories, so they couldn't support the NDP.
Instead they went with their second anti-Tory option of the Liberals who are less muslim friendly than the NDP.

Crosby was a fool to undo the balance between the NDP and the Liberals by forcing anti-islamism into the fore, thus uniting the opposition behind the Liberals.

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

The vote share says it all:
Lib: 47.7%
Con:28.1%
NDP: 17.7%

http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.

Agree with most of that except Trudeau's Liberals are not socially conservative

They are to the right of the NDP on social issues.
When Harper attacked islam the NDP was forced to defend it for ideological reasons, but canadians hate islam as much as they hate the Tories, so they couldn't support the NDP.
Instead they went with their second anti-Tory option of the Liberals who are less muslim friendly than the NDP.

Crosby was a fool to undo the balance between the NDP and the Liberals by forcing anti-islamism into the fore, thus uniting the opposition behind the Liberals.

Trudeau is pro gay marriage and pro action on climate change, although you may be right on the muslim point, night

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

Speedy said:

The vote share says it all:
Lib: 47.7%
Con:28.1%
NDP: 17.7%

http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

With the caveat that is based on ~15% of the vote.

You are clutching at straws, the trend is clear. Anyway, I am calling it for Trudeau now and a Liberal majority, quite a comeback from third in 2011, will check if any further surprises in the morning. Night

Yeah, I'm not disputing the overall projection!

Indeed but will confirm in the morning, night

Danny565 said:

RobD said:

Danny565 said:

Liberal Majority now projected.

From CBC, or are you going off the declared + leading numbers (which isn't a projection).

I'm watching CTV, I think they're "calling" it as a Majority, although I may be misunderstanding as I know precisely zero about Canadian politics!

That's fair enough then! The leading thing is quite misleading IMO. It should only tally for a particular party if they are projecting they will win the seat.

The Conservatives have now matched their most recent poll rating of 31% with just a third of the votes counted.

AndyJS said:

The Conservatives have now matched their most recent poll rating of 31% with just a third of the votes counted.

Is there a particular reason that later results would favour the Conservatives to push their vote up further? (Genuine question, I don't know)

Really annoying betfair doesn't have a majority market.

The most seats/Next PM markets has made for boring trading.

Goodnight all.

RobD said:

Speedy said:

The vote share says it all:
Lib: 47.7%
Con:28.1%
NDP: 17.7%

http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

Libs already down to 42.4% Continuing at this rate they'll end up behind the Tories

The final figures could be something like 39% to 34%.

AdamCasey said:

Wow, that was a hell of a rout. Well done to our Canadian friends for a very exciting evening.

In seats it is, but if the popular vote is only a 5 point lead I wouldn't call it a rout in votes.

Deleted

http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/cameron-should-listen-to-syrian-bishops-not-the-anglican-ones/

Apropos Syrian migrants, a Bishop who knows what he is talking about.