Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approval ratings slump to a net minus 19 points in

124»

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    Liberals now up to 83 Tories 44 NDP 11 BQ 1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    I wonder how results effect voting where the polls are still open. Wondered this for other large nations like the US and Russia.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    HYUFD said:

    Liberals now up to 83 Tories 44 NDP 11 BQ 1

    Still only 30 seats declared though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberals leading in Glengarry in Ottowa, Tories won with 48% in 2011

    Does that actually mean anything though?
    Yes, as CBC now projecting the Liberals have won the election
    No, in that particular seat. The Liberals could be ahead after one vote is counted, for instance.
    No, CBC have projected now the Liberals have won the general election and that Trudeau will be the next PM of Canada
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    The question is only now whether he has a majority or minority government it seems
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberals leading in Glengarry in Ottowa, Tories won with 48% in 2011

    Does that actually mean anything though?
    Yes, as CBC now projecting the Liberals have won the election
    No, in that particular seat. The Liberals could be ahead after one vote is counted, for instance.
    No, CBC have projected now the Liberals have won the general election and that Trudeau will be the next PM of Canada
    Are you not reading what I posted? I asked if the fact that the liberals were ahead based on partial figures in a seat where the Tories got 48% was actually useful. The better comparator would be the vote share in those precincts that had declared.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    Liberals up to 118 now, Tories 68, NDP 13, BQ 2
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberals leading in Glengarry in Ottowa, Tories won with 48% in 2011

    Does that actually mean anything though?
    Yes, as CBC now projecting the Liberals have won the election
    No, in that particular seat. The Liberals could be ahead after one vote is counted, for instance.
    No, CBC have projected now the Liberals have won the general election and that Trudeau will be the next PM of Canada
    Are you not reading what I posted? I asked if the fact that the liberals were ahead based on partial figures in a seat where the Tories got 48% was actually useful. The better comparator would be the vote share in those precincts that had declared.
    Maybe, but the projection is clear, Trudeau has won, the only issue now is the margin. I am off to bed soon and will confirm position in the morning
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberals leading in Glengarry in Ottowa, Tories won with 48% in 2011

    Does that actually mean anything though?
    Yes, as CBC now projecting the Liberals have won the election
    No, in that particular seat. The Liberals could be ahead after one vote is counted, for instance.
    No, CBC have projected now the Liberals have won the general election and that Trudeau will be the next PM of Canada
    Are you not reading what I posted? I asked if the fact that the liberals were ahead based on partial figures in a seat where the Tories got 48% was actually useful. The better comparator would be the vote share in those precincts that had declared.
    Maybe, but the projection is clear, Trudeau has won, the only issue now is the margin. I am off to bed soon and will confirm position in the morning
    The overall projection has nothing to do with what I am saying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    Liberals now over 150 on 152, Tories 87 NDP 21 BQ 5
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    HYUFD said:

    Liberals now over 150 on 152, Tories 87 NDP 21 BQ 5
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics

    But only 33 declared ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberals now over 150 on 152, Tories 87 NDP 21 BQ 5
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics

    But only 33 declared ;)
    1.7 million votes counted so far. The total in 2011 was 14.7 million.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberals leading in Glengarry in Ottowa, Tories won with 48% in 2011

    Does that actually mean anything though?
    Yes, as CBC now projecting the Liberals have won the election
    No, in that particular seat. The Liberals could be ahead after one vote is counted, for instance.
    No, CBC have projected now the Liberals have won the general election and that Trudeau will be the next PM of Canada
    Are you not reading what I posted? I asked if the fact that the liberals were ahead based on partial figures in a seat where the Tories got 48% was actually useful. The better comparator would be the vote share in those precincts that had declared.
    Maybe, but the projection is clear, Trudeau has won, the only issue now is the margin. I am off to bed soon and will confirm position in the morning
    The overall projection has nothing to do with what I am saying.
    The Liberals presently lead in 158, Tories in 94, NDP 27, BQ 8. I don't think there is much doubt of the result now
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberals now over 150 on 152, Tories 87 NDP 21 BQ 5
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics

    But only 33 declared ;)
    1.7 million votes counted so far. The total in 2011 was 14.7 million.
    Yep. Like here, Labour areas tend to declare quickest. I don't think CBCs leading value is a projection, it just states which party is numerically in front. That doesn't change their overall projection though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberals leading in Glengarry in Ottowa, Tories won with 48% in 2011

    Does that actually mean anything though?
    Yes, as CBC now projecting the Liberals have won the election
    No, in that particular seat. The Liberals could be ahead after one vote is counted, for instance.
    No, CBC have projected now the Liberals have won the general election and that Trudeau will be the next PM of Canada
    Are you not reading what I posted? I asked if the fact that the liberals were ahead based on partial figures in a seat where the Tories got 48% was actually useful. The better comparator would be the vote share in those precincts that had declared.
    Maybe, but the projection is clear, Trudeau has won, the only issue now is the margin. I am off to bed soon and will confirm position in the morning
    The overall projection has nothing to do with what I am saying.
    The Liberals presently lead in 158, Tories in 94, NDP 27, BQ 8. I don't think there is much doubt of the result now
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics
    But they don't. Check how many are actually declared.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    edited October 2015
    Liberals now leading in 173 seats, that is enough for a Liberal majority
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
    Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    Speedy said:

    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.

    Agree with most of that except Trudeau's Liberals are not socially conservative
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    Speedy said:

    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
    Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

    With the caveat that is based on ~15% of the vote.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2015
    It looks like the polls have probably underestimated the Conservative share of the vote.

    They're already on 29% with just 20% of the votes counted so far. The most recent polls had them on about 31%. With 80% to be counted is difficult not to see them going beyond that.

    http://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
    Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

    With the caveat that is based on ~15% of the vote.
    You are clutching at straws, the trend is clear. Anyway, I am calling it for Trudeau now and a Liberal majority, quite a comeback from third in 2011, will check if any further surprises in the morning. Night
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
    Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

    With the caveat that is based on ~15% of the vote.
    You are clutching at straws, the trend is clear. Anyway, I am calling it for Trudeau now and a Liberal majority, quite a comeback from third in 2011, will check if any further surprises in the morning. Night
    Yeah, I'm not disputing the overall projection!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.

    Agree with most of that except Trudeau's Liberals are not socially conservative
    They are to the right of the NDP on social issues.
    When Harper attacked islam the NDP was forced to defend it for ideological reasons, but canadians hate islam as much as they hate the Tories, so they couldn't support the NDP.
    Instead they went with their second anti-Tory option of the Liberals who are less muslim friendly than the NDP.

    Crosby was a fool to undo the balance between the NDP and the Liberals by forcing anti-islamism into the fore, thus uniting the opposition behind the Liberals.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Liberal Majority now projected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.

    Agree with most of that except Trudeau's Liberals are not socially conservative
    They are to the right of the NDP on social issues.
    When Harper attacked islam the NDP was forced to defend it for ideological reasons, but canadians hate islam as much as they hate the Tories, so they couldn't support the NDP.
    Instead they went with their second anti-Tory option of the Liberals who are less muslim friendly than the NDP.

    Crosby was a fool to undo the balance between the NDP and the Liberals by forcing anti-islamism into the fore, thus uniting the opposition behind the Liberals.
    Trudeau is pro gay marriage and pro action on climate change, although you may be right on the muslim point, night
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    Danny565 said:

    Liberal Majority now projected.

    From CBC, or are you going off the declared + leading numbers (which isn't a projection).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
    Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

    With the caveat that is based on ~15% of the vote.
    You are clutching at straws, the trend is clear. Anyway, I am calling it for Trudeau now and a Liberal majority, quite a comeback from third in 2011, will check if any further surprises in the morning. Night
    Yeah, I'm not disputing the overall projection!
    Indeed but will confirm in the morning, night
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Liberal Majority now projected.

    From CBC, or are you going off the declared + leading numbers (which isn't a projection).
    I'm watching CTV, I think they're "calling" it as a Majority, although I may be misunderstanding as I know precisely zero about Canadian politics!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Liberal Majority now projected.

    From CBC, or are you going off the declared + leading numbers (which isn't a projection).
    I'm watching CTV, I think they're "calling" it as a Majority, although I may be misunderstanding as I know precisely zero about Canadian politics!
    That's fair enough then! The leading thing is quite misleading IMO. It should only tally for a particular party if they are projecting they will win the seat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think they call things much too soon. There are still 70% of the votes to be counted.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Conservatives have now matched their most recent poll rating of 31% with just a third of the votes counted.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    AndyJS said:

    I think they call things much too soon. There are still 70% of the votes to be counted.

    In fairness, it appears CBC know how the individual ballot boxes voted last time around - with info like that you can project pretty accurately from a small %.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    The Conservatives have now matched their most recent poll rating of 31% with just a third of the votes counted.

    Is there a particular reason that later results would favour the Conservatives to push their vote up further? (Genuine question, I don't know)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2015
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Conservatives have now matched their most recent poll rating of 31% with just a third of the votes counted.

    Is there a particular reason that later results would favour the Conservatives to push their vote up further? (Genuine question, I don't know)
    Rural areas usually count slower and they favour the centre/right or right-wing party most of the time. That certainly happens in this country.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2015
    Really annoying betfair doesn't have a majority market.

    The most seats/Next PM markets has made for boring trading.

    Goodnight all.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    edited October 2015
    Speedy said:

    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
    Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

    Libs already down to 42.4% ;) Continuing at this rate they'll end up behind the Tories :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    The vote share says it all:
    Lib: 47.7%
    Con:28.1%
    NDP: 17.7%

    http://globalnews.ca/news/2281127/federal-election-2015-live-real-time-results/

    Crosby has utterly failed on this one, as I said 2/3rds of Canadians hated the Tories but before Crosby where evenly split behind which opposition party to support, Crosby united them behind a single party and now we see the result.
    He did the opposite of divide and conquer.

    In Britain though he has a much easier job, 2/3rds of Britons do not hate the Tory party yet and there is only one big opposition party instead of two.
    Throwing social conservative barbs against Labour is much easier since a majority of the public here are either social or economic conservatives and there is no big party in Britain that is economically left wing and social conservative like the canadian Liberals to become the recipient party of Crosby's attacks.
    Thus Labour is depressed to the core left while unable to acquire the necessary votes from social conservatives to win.

    Libs already down to 42.4% ;) Continuing at this rate they'll end up behind the Tories :D
    The final figures could be something like 39% to 34%.
  • Wow, that was a hell of a rout. Well done to our Canadian friends for a very exciting evening.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AdamCasey said:

    Wow, that was a hell of a rout. Well done to our Canadian friends for a very exciting evening.

    In seats it is, but if the popular vote is only a 5 point lead I wouldn't call it a rout in votes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2015
    Fascinating to see the Conservatives winning 11 of 13 seats in and around Quebec City. The two they missed were Louis-Herbert and Quebec itself.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited October 2015
    Deleted
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,346
    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,346
    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/cameron-should-listen-to-syrian-bishops-not-the-anglican-ones/

    Apropos Syrian migrants, a Bishop who knows what he is talking about.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    Good morning, everyone.

    Miss Cyclefree, do try beef sausage with garlic and red pepper (I think that was one I had, not from Germany, but I haven't been able to find it since). Delicious.

    And do not mock the sausage. Few foods have such easy comedy potential.

    And don't neglect the meat balls either.
Sign In or Register to comment.