politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The US Presidential Election: David Herdson’s guide to anal
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Why be surprised it's turned messy...it's a cynical measure that's targeted on the poor. It just exposes this government for what it is,The_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).0 -
Quite likely much as Popular Union in Greece collapsed in favour of SyrizaSandyRentool said:
I'm wondering if NDP supporters might vote tactically for the Libs to ensure that the Tories don't get most seats. The momentum appears to be with the Pretty Boy.HYUFD said:
Even if there was I expect Trudeau would still win. He now has a clear lead on the polls while final polls in the UK, Israel and Denmark had it tied. In Sindy final polls had No ahead. This election seems more JFK v Nixon or Obama v McCain or Rudd v Howard than Cameron v Ed Miliband or Netanyahu v Herzogfoxinsoxuk said:
From the betting point of view: are we going to get a further repeat of the shy Tories? Denmark, Israel, UK, Sindy ref....Canada?HYUFD said:
CBC today projects Liberals 135, Tories 118, NDP 83Casino_Royale said:Conservatives on 102 seats and Liberals on 106 with 49 seats too close to call:
http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php
Today's Canadian Election Watch has the two neck and neck - Liberals at 129 and Conservatives at 128:
http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/
Liberals have drifted slightly on Betfair to 1.18 but Conservatives still a bit of value at 5.0 IMHO
Probably only 20 seats in it either way.
Here are the latest polls over the last two days
Nanos Liberals 37 Tories 31 NDP 23
Leger Liberals 38 Tories 30 NDP 22
Angus Reid Liberals 35 Tories 33 NDP 21
Mainstreet Liberals 38 Tories 33 NDP 210 -
I turn 40 in a month or soThe_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).
:depressed face:0 -
Oh BTW
NEW THREAD0 -
Indeed it needs to be a 1% popular vote margin to potentially applydavid_herdson said:
That's probably one example of history misleading. Until not long ago, there was a much more flexible electorate - the Electoral College landslides of 1964, 1972 and 1984 were on a scale almost inconceivable now. Many states, including huge ones like California, are pretty much written off before the campaign begins. Consequently, there can be a lot of votes in CA, NY and TX, to take but three, that go a long way in the national vote but have comparatively little impact in the ECV.HYUFD said:
Only one candidate in the last 100 years has won the popular vote for the US presidency and failed to win the electoral college too, Al Gore and had he won just 500 more votes in Florida, the equivalent to the majority in a UK council by election, he would have won that tooMTimT said:Thanks, David, for an excellent article. As someone who has been on this site for 3 (coming up 4) US election cycles now, Number 1 on the list is the key. I've seen far too much extrapolation of British models onto the US system. As you say, it is 51 elections, and swing is not the measure - comparison district by district to last elections' results is how it's measured here.
Now you can argue - and to a large extent you'd be right to - that the swing in the shares in these states will still mirror the national swing and so the balance will be maintained. Quite probably. But campaigning and targeting is improving all the time and it a disproportionate swing in the key states is entirely possible.
Also, by definition, it's only the close elections that can produce a reverse result and there aren't too many that land within, say 2%.0 -
I think that's a bit unfair. The pitch started taking spin on the last day but was still slow and low. Combine that with a slow outfield and five or six men on the boundary, hitting fours becomes very hard. Of the 11 overs in the fourth innings, there were only 16 dot balls.maaarsh said:Poor final batting show. With 11 overs we should have got close enough to make it a much more awkward discussion for the umpires.
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My mum always look at getting older from the perspective that she's still alive, so she's happySunil_Prasannan said:
I turn 40 in a month or soThe_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).
:depressed face:0 -
Glad to hear that. Very good news.antifrank said:An accidental consequence of Jeremy Corbyn's rise to power may be an increase in the authority of select committees:
http://labourlist.org/2015/10/prominent-former-frontbenchers-fill-select-committee-roles/0 -
I actually didn't expect the changes to cause this much fuss given how on-side much of the media have been. That even The Sun (according to the header of the previous thread) are pressuring the government on this is something.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Why be surprised it's turned messy...it's a cynical measure that's targeted on the poor. It just exposes this government for what it is,The_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).
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They're not unique but they are sufficiently different (and individually polled) that I'd look almost entirely to that data rather than national surveys. There will be an underlying national swing but it won't be uniform and if it's close - and it could well be: neither party has a strong candidate - then the differentials will be critical.edmundintokyo said:Good piece but I'm not convinced about the whole "51 elections" thing. I haven't done anything systematic on this but it seemed like the national polling + UNS was pretty good last time, whereas the state polling was all over the shop. And I remember in 2008 guys like RodCrosby and Nate Silver did pretty well projecting the state primaries by extrapolating demographics from the first few, so it doesn't really seem like they're all unique snowflakes.
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Do you know why that is? because you're not on the end of them. I have family members who will lose a total of over £1,000 a year. That's £5,000 between now and the next election. Whatever the merits of the policy it will impact on the Tories for years. I've been saying it for months...most of those affected never realised it would be THEM facing the cuts.The_Apocalypse said:
I actually didn't expect the changes to cause this much fuss given how on-side much of the media have been. That even The Sun (according to the header of the previous thread) are pressuring the government on this is something.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Why be surprised it's turned messy...it's a cynical measure that's targeted on the poor. It just exposes this government for what it is,The_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).0 -
I know how you feel, I'll be 30 in 14 months myself.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I turn 40 in a month or soThe_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).
:depressed face:0 -
Ummm.... thanksThe_Apocalypse said:
My mum always look at getting older from the perspective that she's still alive, so she's happySunil_Prasannan said:
I turn 40 in a month or soThe_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).
:depressed face:0 -
In 2004 too national polls had Bush ahead but Ohio was tighter. State polls only really matter if the national polling has a candidate leading by 1% or less hence 1960 when Illinois was crucial or 2000 when Florida was key. The 1968 race was tight but Wallace complicated the picturedavid_herdson said:
They're not unique but they are sufficiently different (and individually polled) that I'd look almost entirely to that data rather than national surveys. There will be an underlying national swing but it won't be uniform and if it's close - and it could well be: neither party has a strong candidate - then the differentials will be critical.edmundintokyo said:Good piece but I'm not convinced about the whole "51 elections" thing. I haven't done anything systematic on this but it seemed like the national polling + UNS was pretty good last time, whereas the state polling was all over the shop. And I remember in 2008 guys like RodCrosby and Nate Silver did pretty well projecting the state primaries by extrapolating demographics from the first few, so it doesn't really seem like they're all unique snowflakes.
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They have also got a rise in the minimum wage and a cut in income tax for the lowest earnersTheKrakenAwakes said:
Do you know why that is? because you're not on the end of them. I have family members who will lose a total of over £1,000 a year. That's £5,000 between now and the next election. Whatever the merits of the policy it will impact on the Tories for years. I've been saying it for months...most of those affected never realised it would be THEM facing the cuts.The_Apocalypse said:
I actually didn't expect the changes to cause this much fuss given how on-side much of the media have been. That even The Sun (according to the header of the previous thread) are pressuring the government on this is something.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Why be surprised it's turned messy...it's a cynical measure that's targeted on the poor. It just exposes this government for what it is,The_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).0 -
pre-March means before March, not during it.HYUFD said:0 -
I think that sums up a lot of the misconceptions about tax credits. Many recipients are not on minimum wage so for them it's not relevant...for those who are on tax credits who benefit from the minimum wage increase, they will lose 80% of that increase in PAYE, NIC and 48% reduction in tax credits. One group who will get slaughtered are micro-businesses with one or two employees. Sole traders won't benefit from corporation tax cuts but will incur costs in implementing the living wage and will lose tax credits as well. Farming communities in particular will be hit by this.HYUFD said:
They have also got a rise in the minimum wage and a cut in income tax for the lowest earnersTheKrakenAwakes said:
Do you know why that is? because you're not on the end of them. I have family members who will lose a total of over £1,000 a year. That's £5,000 between now and the next election. Whatever the merits of the policy it will impact on the Tories for years. I've been saying it for months...most of those affected never realised it would be THEM facing the cuts.The_Apocalypse said:
I actually didn't expect the changes to cause this much fuss given how on-side much of the media have been. That even The Sun (according to the header of the previous thread) are pressuring the government on this is something.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Why be surprised it's turned messy...it's a cynical measure that's targeted on the poor. It just exposes this government for what it is,The_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).0 -
I also said the lowest rate if income tax has been cut, tax credits just subsidise low wagesTheKrakenAwakes said:
I think that sums up a lot of the misconceptions about tax credits. Many recipients are not on minimum wage so for them it's not relevant...for those who are on tax credits who benefit from the minimum wage increase, they will lose 80% of that increase in PAYE, NIC and 48% reduction in tax credits. One group who will get slaughtered are micro-businesses with one or two employees. Sole traders won't benefit from corporation tax cuts but will incur costs in implementing the living wage and will lose tax credits as well. Farming communities in particular will be hit by this.HYUFD said:
They have also got a rise in the minimum wage and a cut in income tax for the lowest earnersTheKrakenAwakes said:
Do you know why that is? because you're not on the end of them. I have family members who will lose a total of over £1,000 a year. That's £5,000 between now and the next election. Whatever the merits of the policy it will impact on the Tories for years. I've been saying it for months...most of those affected never realised it would be THEM facing the cuts.The_Apocalypse said:
I actually didn't expect the changes to cause this much fuss given how on-side much of the media have been. That even The Sun (according to the header of the previous thread) are pressuring the government on this is something.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Why be surprised it's turned messy...it's a cynical measure that's targeted on the poor. It just exposes this government for what it is,The_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).0 -
The personal allowance went from £10,000 to £10,600...that's a tax saving of £120. They're going to lose ten times that!HYUFD said:
I also said the lowest rate if income tax has been cut, tax credits just subsidise low wagesTheKrakenAwakes said:
I think that sums up a lot of the misconceptions about tax credits. Many recipients are not on minimum wage so for them it's not relevant...for those who are on tax credits who benefit from the minimum wage increase, they will lose 80% of that increase in PAYE, NIC and 48% reduction in tax credits. One group who will get slaughtered are micro-businesses with one or two employees. Sole traders won't benefit from corporation tax cuts but will incur costs in implementing the living wage and will lose tax credits as well. Farming communities in particular will be hit by this.HYUFD said:
They have also got a rise in the minimum wage and a cut in income tax for the lowest earnersTheKrakenAwakes said:
Do you know why that is? because you're not on the end of them. I have family members who will lose a total of over £1,000 a year. That's £5,000 between now and the next election. Whatever the merits of the policy it will impact on the Tories for years. I've been saying it for months...most of those affected never realised it would be THEM facing the cuts.The_Apocalypse said:
I actually didn't expect the changes to cause this much fuss given how on-side much of the media have been. That even The Sun (according to the header of the previous thread) are pressuring the government on this is something.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Why be surprised it's turned messy...it's a cynical measure that's targeted on the poor. It just exposes this government for what it is,The_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).
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It took the lowest earners out of tax the minimum wage is rising from around £13000 to £17000. Tax credits just subsidise employers to keep wages lowTheKrakenAwakes said:
The personal allowance went from £10,000 to £10,600...that's a tax saving of £120. They're going to lose ten times that!HYUFD said:
I also said the lowest rate if income tax has been cut, tax credits just subsidise low wagesTheKrakenAwakes said:
I think that sums up a lot of the misconceptions about tax credits. Many recipients are not on minimum wage so for them it's not relevant...for those who are on tax credits who benefit from the minimum wage increase, they will lose 80% of that increase in PAYE, NIC and 48% reduction in tax credits. One group who will get slaughtered are micro-businesses with one or two employees. Sole traders won't benefit from corporation tax cuts but will incur costs in implementing the living wage and will lose tax credits as well. Farming communities in particular will be hit by this.HYUFD said:
They have also got a rise in the minimum wage and a cut in income tax for the lowest earnersTheKrakenAwakes said:
Do you know why that is? because you're not on the end of them. I have family members who will lose a total of over £1,000 a year. That's £5,000 between now and the next election. Whatever the merits of the policy it will impact on the Tories for years. I've been saying it for months...most of those affected never realised it would be THEM facing the cuts.The_Apocalypse said:
I actually didn't expect the changes to cause this much fuss given how on-side much of the media have been. That even The Sun (according to the header of the previous thread) are pressuring the government on this is something.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Why be surprised it's turned messy...it's a cynical measure that's targeted on the poor. It just exposes this government for what it is,The_Apocalypse said:Just seen the previous thread; this tax credits debate is getting messy.
And SeanT is the reason why I wouldn't touch older men with a barge pole as far dating goes. Likely to be very right wing (and a bit scary with it as well).0