politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It would be a mistake for Sadiq Khan to attack Zac Goldsmit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It would be a mistake for Sadiq Khan to attack Zac Goldsmith’s out of touchness
What’s remarkable is just how evenly matched [Khan and Goldsmith] are, right down to the different aspects of their personality. Likeable? Its 41%/41%. Good in a crisis? 26%/27%. Up to the job of Mayor? 38%/39%.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34498836
Apparently, making sure someone is in the UK legally is the equivalent to no dogs, no blacks, no Irish signs.
F1: post-race analysis up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/russia-post-race-analysis.html
I will be appalled if Cameron starts looking to sack eurosceptics as a way to neutralise them before the debate begins in a big way. This would be exactly the sort of thing that will cause a split in the party. An open debate needs both sides to behave with honesty and respect towards the other.
There is quite a lot of policy duelling going on, e.g. Khan has come out for transferable bus tickets, so you don't need to pay twice if the bus network happens to require you to change - Boris rejected that a couple of years ago. But the problem about London policy initiatives is that most Londoners don't think anything the mayor does will matter much so they don't get much coverage even in the Standard. People seem to vote on party allegiance plus beauty contest.
By the way, replies on European questions (Switzerland, Dutch referendum) from JEO and Charles are on the last thread - probably not of sufficient general interest to repeat.
BTW, Khan himself would be wrong to oppose R3. R3 will create many, many jobs. He can also display a difference between him and McDonell [ possibly also Corbyn ]
Hypocrites.
Just pointing out. Whether IN or OUT hardly matters.
"Between November 2013 and November 2014, 49,120 teachers left the profession – an increase of 3,480 teachers on the previous year, and the largest number to quit in a year since records began."
Obviously.
I spit in your soup.
Re the Swiss referendum, didn't the Swiss sign a treaty with the EU about access to the Single Market which included provisions re immigration.
This was then broken down into two different referendum questions: 1. re access to the Single Market and 2. re Immigration.
The Swiss said no to 2, and yes to 1. And the EU said, you get to choose on the whole package, not to segment it as you please.
I.e., you can have 1 & 2, or not 1 and not 2. But you cannot have 1 and not 2.
*lays on sofa with glass of red wine*
Is that not really weird? How can 13 year olds not know their 8x table?
The standard of the teaching is seriously down on Yorkshire as well. It is one of the poorest schools in Cardiff apparently, but blimey, they have problems.
P.S. Thank you for the information on Switzerland from the previous thread. Very informative.
There are two campaigns: Leave.EU is a people's campaign with 200,000 members. Vote Leave is run by a clique of Westminster politicians. But I'm not attacking them. No siree. Of course not. Pure as the driven snow I am. Butter wouldn't melt in my mouth.
Some pretty unconvincing numbers for Hillary Clinton vs Trump:
Florida: Clinton 46%, Trump 41%
Ohio: Clinton 43%, Trump 42%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 44%, Trump 42%
Iowa: Trump 48%, Clinton 41%
New Hampshire: Clinton 48%, Trump 45%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
I think high density housing has an image problem due to ugly ideologically driven rabbit hutch high rises. Doesn't have to be like that.
It's not so much the design of houses but the planning of the communities which was wrong. High rise does not equate to high density since there has to be lots of empty space and parking between the towers. This is the problem, this space belongs to nobody. Deck access seems even worse. There have been major demolition programmes in Manchester and Sheffield I think involving these types. It's a tragedy to knock down houses but the mistakes of the 60's were terrible ones. If it can be shown that the estates deserve it then we need to get rid of them. But this is not going to add to the stock of homes.
The concept being suggested some time ago for successful development was one of 'defensible space' I believe. Occupiers need to have something to call their own and interlopers and troublemakers need to be aware of their acts of trespass.
As my granddaughter put when someone commiserated with her on teaching teenagers ... "it's not the kid, the kids are lovely."
Who wants to live in a Ken Loach nightmare?
Cows with calves are very defensive and will stampede if they perceive you as a threat, while everyone knows about older bulls, and why they arent allowed on public walkways, the same isnt for young bulls up to a certain age. They get very aggressive and territorial.
I often run along a river, with cows to the other side of the path. You have to be very careful and aware with them.
Last night our evening meal was steak in pepper sauce, with an excellent bottle of Shiraz, bought the previous day from Majestic.
If only Wales had won both games it would have been a perfect evening!
The multi-storey car park made famous in Get Carter is an eye sore of epic proportions in Gateshead - it makes a sunny day feel grim. Knock it down.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11924776/Judges-plan-to-outlaw-climate-change-denial.html
1) whisky? Not for me thanks. Irish whiskey is acceptable.
2) sloe gin is maturing nicely. I too am a devotee of freezing them. I also make walnut brandy and cherry brandy and have experimented with limoncello.
3) my mother in law is considerably easier going than my other half, though both have a flair for drama that I can only admire.
The man is fool.
It was 6ft at the shoulder, huge wide horns and 800lbs at least. No idea what breed - but !!!!!!
This sort of scale http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1392792/What-load-bull-Britains-biggest-bull-retires--spared-going-mincer.html
Very disconcerting for those who thought they might enjoy their picnic in peace.
That said, copyright laws in general really aren't fit for purpose. And the copyright lobby is hugely powerful. Not least because it can put PMs and Presidents in the same photos as Hollywood stars and world famous musicians.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-10-11/failed-demolition-of-red-road-flats-leaves-two-tower-blocks-standing/
I can almost imagine Blaster Bates retelling this one.
But it may reduce the stock of misery, ill-health and crime. So go for it.
So if the average teacher does 40 years in the profession, you'd expect 2.5% + from just retirements, i.e. 11,000 per year. That means the loss above retirement is something less than 38,000 or 7-8%. This does not strike me as particularly high, but I am ready to be educated if I am wrong on this.
The intake into teacher training education for 2014 was 32,500 so if this were sustained, it would appear that there would be a drain on teacher numbers, unless there is return to the workforce for teachers who had previously left (maternity leave?) or entry into teaching without going through formal teacher training college. HMG claims it is filling 92% of its teacher training target.
(https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/380175/ITT_CENSUS_2014-15_FINAL.pdf)
FFS.
3, 2, 1.... controlled explosion, and Glasgow's skyline is changed forever http://t.co/qu9yohn8yn #redroadflats http://t.co/D15jASeNlC
My own affection for tower block living (going back to my Danish youth) was mostly centred on a single huge well-managed block which was neatly located between a railway and urban area on one side and a village on the other. It worked well and housed about 150 families at modest cost with wonderful access to transport, shopping and green spaces - it's still there 50 years later and still looks good. But I see the problem if you have 20 blocks with unclear "ownership" of the area between them. Hmm.
So disappointing that Labour didn't go for a substantial politician like David Lammy
Talking of which I think a David Lammy sweepstake is a good idea! Which job will he apply for next?
1. God
2. A private sector role
3. Mayor
4. Pontiff
5. Something at the BBC
6. Labour leader
7. McDonalds
8. Something in Europe
9. US president
10. Russian President
As these are clearly equally likely it'll be an interesting run!
We'll have to see how this plays out but I for one am not pleased about it...
Have we increduled here (in which case apologies) about the pathetic Cam "four musts" (as though he is living in 1970s PRC) yet and at sufficient length?
Which brings me onto the next point: I think it's just wrong to say the "posh/out of touch" attacks didn't work at all in the last parliament. How people vote in a general election, and how they vote in mid-term elections are very different things. In the mid-term elections, the sense that the Tories were a bunch of rich kids was one of the main reasons the Tories got dustings (especially in 2012 immediately after the tax giveaway to millionaires). At the general election, people felt it was more important to go with the party who was best on the economy and which leader would look less out-of-place at world summits, but nobody thinks the Mayor of London is going to affect either of those things so people will vote on personality.
The question I asked throughout 05-10 remains - are there really no super-bright, intellectually gigantic, switched on, streetwise Cons candidates from Worksop? Or in this case Dagenham (no offence)?
Were you happy about it when Labour introduced it for employers?
Another landmark featured in the film - Dunston coal staithes - are now open to the public to walk along. When I was young, I used to watch the coal wagons being shunted up to the top, and the empty wagons heading back down under gravity. Happy days.
It would be interesting to know the ages of those who quit, given that now over half of all NQTs leave the profession within five years.
The thing is, teaching is not like say, accountancy, where one person with a computer can make up for about eight with quill pens. There is a certain critical mass needed for it to be viable, and it also has to be in the right subjects. If 50,000 teachers spread evenly across subjects go, that's a problem. If fifty thousand scientists and mathematicians - the ones who are both most overworked and most in demand in other jobs - walk, that's a crisis.
Just to reiterate, in light of subsequent comments - I do not know when OFSTED are coming in. The only reason I am doing all this extra paperwork is because it is what they insist on seeing when they do come in. It is totally irrelevant to the education I am giving my children, and putting me under a colossal and unnecessary strain. However, if I don't do it, the outstanding exam results don't matter and we will get a 4 for having the wrong paperwork. It has made me wonder whether I should also quit teaching in favour of a profession where you are not constantly bossed about by a bunch of pompous failures (does anyone know of such a profession)? So these figures do not surprise me.
And it will be less than 50% above the numbers entering because of those entering/reentering without need to go to college.
That said, it could be a problem. I say could, because I do not know what the natural attrition rate is, nor what levels of teacher training intake is needed to sustain that level of leaving. Too many unknown variables in the equation. All I was trying to do was start an analysis, not give a complete one.
Every profession I know has paperwork requirements.
Teachers leaving their profession is not higher than other rates of change.
With regard to retirements, a great many teachers now go part-time for a few years before retiring - my colleague, the ex-Head of French, is now job-sharing with another ex-Head of French, which suits them both nicely. In my first school, the former head of history had gone down to 0.6 for a couple of years before finally quitting. 0.6, incidentally, normally is about a 45 hour week - and with good pay for senior teachers, going part time is actually a very attractive option as a result.
So it depends on two things: (1) if the 49120 figure includes part time teachers leaving, in which case obviously 32,000 coming in might be enough to take up the slack or (2) if it only includes those leaving from full time posts, i.e. discounting retirement. Because if it's the latter, things are actually slightly worse than I thought.
Anecdotally, I believe that only half of the 15 students I trained with three years ago are still in teaching. And that was on a course with an outstanding reputation for getting us into teaching and keeping us there.
Either way it isn't OFSTED's fault.