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That's with Labour voters being the most certain of who they want to win.taffys said:http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/zac-goldsmith-and-sadiq-khan-neck-and-neck-in-race-to-be-mayor-a3086691.html
Khan and Zac neck and neck according to the Standard
60% of Kippers yet to make up their mind - but plumping for Zac by 12-1 where they have, and Lib dems are breaking 6-5 for Zac.
Labour deserters to Zac twice as many as Tories to Khan.0 -
That has been clear for many years now. This latest debacle is merely another example of what a massive git Watson is.watford30 said:By smearing someone in the HoC under the guise of Parliamentary Privilege, rather than simply passing the information on to the Home Office or police? The man's a complete tosser.
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Image is everything in today´s world of Americanised politics, Mr M. Look at Mr Cameron, for example. All image and no substance.John_M said:
A photo? That's what you base your view on? Well, it's a method, I suppose.PClipp said:Against all that, we have that dreadful photo from the Tory Conference, where she poses with her feet wide apart, looking for all the world as though she has just had a most unfortunate mishap.
The same pose as Mr Osborne, of course, and the same applies to him.
I cannot see either of them becoming leader of the Conservative Party.0 -
Labour never learn, do they?
Massive number of don't knows, which I think might be good for Zac.0 -
Mr. Llama, Truss seems likeliest of that quartet.0
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Not Truss. She is not sound.HurstLlama said:
No use asking me what happened on television, Mr. D., as you know I never watch it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, I'm still not convinced.
Being serious (Patel/Greening may not, in fact, be the next PM), I find it quite difficult to pick a winner. Might be May, though I'd not back her. Boris is a non-starter unless he can build his position in the PCP rapidly.
Hammond sounds steady but is very dull and looks old.
Incidentally, how did Patel do on QT? I only saw a little bit (I can't take large doses of Farron's self-righteous zeal).
I am firmly of the opinion that the "old guard", in which I include Johnson, May and Hammond, will not produce the next Conservative Party Leader. They are people whose time has come and gone (albit for different reasons). No, we must look to the next generation for the winning bet.
I think there are five to consider - Patel, Greening, Truss, Javid and Stewart.
Stewart, for whom I had high hopes when he entered parliament has disappeared. He might yet surprise but I think not.
Of the ladies, Greening has allowed herself to be house-trained by the DfID, a department that is not held in high regard by very many Conservative Party members. Patel is just too hard and that leaves Truss. She of the sapphire blue eyes and that knowing half-smile (she could win an awful lot of male votes on that alone), but she is also, I think a clever lady who we will be seeing and hearing a lot more of over the next couple of years.
Javid, has the back-story that the Conservative ladies will love, he is also very clever, and has the right instincts to appeal to the membership. If he can make a go of his present job then I think he will do.
Lots might happen between now and the contest, of course, but if there are good odds to be had and cash that can be locked up I'd get on Javid and Truss.0 -
I think with all due respect you need to look at the figures quoted. Everyone needs to look at them. We also need to look at figures for inward investment.JEO said:
But you also need to look at imports displacing domestic production.rcs1000 said:
In the event of Brexit, we would clearly get a very similar deal to - for example - Switzerland, so I think arguing about this is a bit stupid. No-one wants to fuck up trade.Richard_Tyndall said:
Either side could exclude anything but both sides gave to agree to the final treaty. As such we are in a much stronger position than the EU given present trade imbalances.Philip_Thompson said:
No chance but to agree freedom of services? They could agree freedom of trade on products and leave out services if we leave out migration. EDIT: Weird wrong quote seems to have gone in, replaced it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although I am in favour of EEA membership this is rubbish. With a balance of payments in their favour to a tune of over £ 100 billion they will agree deals. They will have no choice if they don't want to see many if their companies collapse.Philip_Thompson said:Outside of the EU/EEA? No chance at all.
That being said, the EU's exports to the UK are c. £250bn p.a., and its GDP (ex the UK) is about £9 trillion. That makes exports to the UK around 3% of EU GDP.
For us, exports to the EU are are going to be £150bn out of GDP of £1.8trn, or 8% of UK GDP.
So, technically exports to the EU are a much bigger deal for us, than exports to the UK are a deal for the EU.0 -
Those numbers look poor for Khan.
The Kippers aren't coming down on his side when they get off the fence.
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I think the betting markets reflect a cynical view of the Tory party amongst some. They think her anti-immigrant rhetoric will endear her to the a particular type of Tory. But I think those Tories joined UKIP already.HurstLlama said:
No use asking me what happened on television, Mr. D., as you know I never watch it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, I'm still not convinced.
Being serious (Patel/Greening may not, in fact, be the next PM), I find it quite difficult to pick a winner. Might be May, though I'd not back her. Boris is a non-starter unless he can build his position in the PCP rapidly.
Hammond sounds steady but is very dull and looks old.
Incidentally, how did Patel do on QT? I only saw a little bit (I can't take large doses of Farron's self-righteous zeal).
I am firmly of the opinion that the "old guard", in which I include Johnson, May and Hammond, will not produce the next Conservative Party Leader. They are people whose time has come and gone (albit for different reasons). No, we must look to the next generation for the winning bet.
I think there are five to consider - Patel, Greening, Truss, Javid and Stewart.
Stewart, for whom I had high hopes when he entered parliament has disappeared. He might yet surprise but I think not.
Of the ladies, Greening has allowed herself to be house-trained by the DfID, a department that is not held in high regard by very many Conservative Party members. Patel is just too hard and that leaves Truss. She of the sapphire blue eyes and that knowing half-smile (she could win an awful lot of male votes on that alone), but she is also, I think a clever lady who we will be seeing and hearing a lot more of over the next couple of years.
Javid, has the back-story that the Conservative ladies will love, he is also very clever, and has the right instincts to appeal to the membership. If he can make a go of his present job then I think he will do.
Lots might happen between now and the contest, of course, but if there are good odds to be had and cash that can be locked up I'd get on Javid and Truss.
I'm a fan of Javid and think he's the most likely non-Osborne successor to Cameron.
The biggest unknown is the EU referendum - Osborne will have to campaign to stay in. I think that the Osborne camp may hedge its bets by allowing Javid to campaign for out. They then stitch up the MPs vote to make sure it's a Javid/Osborne final two (as the Cameron campaign did to keep Fox off the ballot last time). They then don't really care who wins - Osborne wins, Javid becomes chancellor and the favourite for the next time, Javid wins, Osborne stays as Chancellor and could still go again (he's in his mid 40s after all).0 -
To be honest, I agree with you on the Vote Leave website. The strapline is good - take control - but the content doesn't bite, and isn't memorable.Richard_Nabavi said:
This is why I found the Vote Leave website so interesting on this point - they don't mention immigration at all, or at least not prominently. So it looks to me as though they agree with you on this.Richard_Tyndall said:I am inclined to think that having such a position as the post Brexit preference for the Leave campaign is fairly crucial. I ghink a clear statement that EEA membership is the vision of Leave would go a long at to convincing both business and the general public.
Conversely, the Leave.EU website features 'control of our borders' quite prominently. It's also done in a more populist style.
How much it matters having two dfferent campaigns is not clear to me, but only one of them is going to get the official designation as the Leave campaign group.
There's too much on there, it's too general and it's too hard to find.
Perhaps that's trying to reconcile the cross-party priorities but they really need to try and boil it down to 3-5 key points that leap out at you in just a few words.0 -
Truss vs Patel would be my favoured contest from a non betting pov.0
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I must confess, what is so cynical about the Tory leadership contest is how many contenders seem to be judging their positions on the EU referendum based purely upon positioning advantage.DearPB said:
I think the betting markets reflect a cynical view of the Tory party amongst some. They think her anti-immigrant rhetoric will endear her to the a particular type of Tory. But I think those Tories joined UKIP already.HurstLlama said:
No use asking me what happened on television, Mr. D., as you know I never watch it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, I'm still not convinced.
Being serious (Patel/Greening may not, in fact, be the next PM), I find it quite difficult to pick a winner. Might be May, though I'd not back her. Boris is a non-starter unless he can build his position in the PCP rapidly.
Hammond sounds steady but is very dull and looks old.
Incidentally, how did Patel do on QT? I only saw a little bit (I can't take large doses of Farron's self-righteous zeal).
I am firmly of the opinion that the "old guard", in which I include Johnson, May and Hammond, will not produce the next Conservative Party Leader. They are people whose time has come and gone (albit for different reasons). No, we must look to the next generation for the winning bet.
I think there are five to consider - Patel, Greening, Truss, Javid and Stewart.
Stewart, for whom I had high hopes when he entered parliament has disappeared. He might yet surprise but I think not.
Of the ladies, Greening has allowed herself to be house-trained by the DfID, a department that is not held in high regard by very many Conservative Party members. Patel is just too hard and that leaves Truss. She of the sapphire blue eyes and that knowing half-smile (she could win an awful lot of male votes on that alone), but she is also, I think a clever lady who we will be seeing and hearing a lot more of over the next couple of years.
Javid
Lots might happen between now and the contest, of course, but if there are good odds to be had and cash that can be locked up I'd get on Javid and Truss.
I'm a fan of Javid and think he's the most likely non-Osborne successor to Cameron.
The biggest unknown is the EU referendum - Osborne will have to campaign to stay in. I think that the Osborne camp may hedge its bets by allowing Javid to campaign for out. They then stitch up the MPs vote to make sure it's a Javid/Osborne final two (as the Cameron campaign did to keep Fox off the ballot last time). They then don't really care who wins - Osborne wins, Javid becomes chancellor and the favourite for the next time, Javid wins, Osborne stays as Chancellor and could still go again (he's in his mid 40s after all).
It's quite depressing, as well as far more transparent than they think it is.0 -
Sadiq Khan is mentioned by name FIRST in that poll. Zac Goldsmith will be ahead of him in the ballot paper (G before K). A subtle and small change, but I think it helps Zac in relation to this poll.0
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There ought really to be a Green breakdown too (which would probably favour Sadiq) - 172k votes vs 273k LD and 287k UKIP.chestnut said:
That's with Labour voters being the most certain of who they want to win.taffys said:http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/zac-goldsmith-and-sadiq-khan-neck-and-neck-in-race-to-be-mayor-a3086691.html
Khan and Zac neck and neck according to the Standard
60% of Kippers yet to make up their mind - but plumping for Zac by 12-1 where they have, and Lib dems are breaking 6-5 for Zac.
Labour deserters to Zac twice as many as Tories to Khan.
Still, positive for Zac imo, 2.38 still looks quite generous.0 -
On the way to work this morning I had a vision that Javid wouldn't be next PM... but next chancellor instead (UNder Osborne). The more I've thought about it, the more it fits.0
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Choosing the non-Farage option seems like a win all round for Leave.tlg86 said:
I don't envy the person(s) who has to make that decision.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think in the end that decision may well determine the outcome of the referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:
This is why I found the Vote Leave website so interesting on this point - they don't mention immigration at all, or at least not prominently. So it looks to me as though they agree with you on this.Richard_Tyndall said:I am inclined to think that having such a position as the post Brexit preference for the Leave campaign is fairly crucial. I ghink a clear statement that EEA membership is the vision of Leave would go a long at to convincing both business and the general public.
Conversely, the Leave.EU website features 'control of our borders' quite prominently. It's also done in a more populist style.
How much it matters having two dfferent campaigns is not clear to me, but only one of them is going to get the official designation as the Leave campaign group.
It would limit Farage as the face of Leave, leaving that position open for someone more moderate and less divisive. It would still allow UKIP to fight the campaign on the streets and out in the country. I don't believe Farage is going to turn round and refuse to campaign just because his team didn't get the official nod.0 -
Really interesting that's there's almost no class element at all - in fact Sadiq is slightly preferred amongst ABC1s and Zac amongst C2DEs (though all MOE).0
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Are we not already in the EEA? That would be my thought so in which case we would not need to resign from it if we leave the EU. This in turn would mean we did not need to sign up to Schengen to actually join.Richard_Nabavi said:@NickPalmer - I suspect we'd end up with something closely based on the EEA agreement but with some differences to take account of the facts that the UK is so large compared with the existing EEA countries, and that the City is such a dominant force in financial services.
I do not want us to join Schengen, but frankly it is not beyond the wit of man to see Labour signing us up in the future. It makes me think I do not want to throw the baby out with the bath water.0 -
Greens might not favour Sadiq by much of a margin (or indeed at all), given that Zac is Zac. As you say, it would be interesting to have some polling on this.Tissue_Price said:There ought really to be a Green breakdown too (which would probably favour Sadiq)
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More pointless scaremongeringflightpath01 said:
I think with all due respect you need to look at the figures quoted. Everyone needs to look at them. We also need to look at figures for inward investment.JEO said:
But you also need to look at imports displacing domestic production.rcs1000 said:
In the event of Brexit, we would clearly get a very similar deal to - for example - Switzerland, so I think arguing about this is a bit stupid. No-one wants to fuck up trade.Richard_Tyndall said:
Either side could exclude anything but both sides gave to agree to the final treaty. As such we are in a much stronger position than the EU given present trade imbalances.Philip_Thompson said:
No chance but to agree freedom of services? They could agree freedom of trade on products and leave out services if we leave out migration. EDIT: Weird wrong quote seems to have gone in, replaced it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although I am in favour of EEA membership this is rubbish. With a balance of payments in their favour to a tune of over £ 100 billion they will agree deals. They will have no choice if they don't want to see many if their companies collapse.Philip_Thompson said:Outside of the EU/EEA? No chance at all.
That being said, the EU's exports to the UK are c. £250bn p.a., and its GDP (ex the UK) is about £9 trillion. That makes exports to the UK around 3% of EU GDP.
For us, exports to the EU are are going to be £150bn out of GDP of £1.8trn, or 8% of UK GDP.
So, technically exports to the EU are a much bigger deal for us, than exports to the UK are a deal for the EU.
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Yes, that's exactly what Leave needs. Farage and his base working hard underneath the radar, and a more moderate business-friendly, metropolitan-friendly to go on the TV and sound reasssuring.Richard_Tyndall said:
Choosing the non-Farage option seems like a win all round for Leave.tlg86 said:
I don't envy the person(s) who has to make that decision.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think in the end that decision may well determine the outcome of the referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:
This is why I found the Vote Leave website so interesting on this point - they don't mention immigration at all, or at least not prominently. So it looks to me as though they agree with you on this.Richard_Tyndall said:I am inclined to think that having such a position as the post Brexit preference for the Leave campaign is fairly crucial. I ghink a clear statement that EEA membership is the vision of Leave would go a long at to convincing both business and the general public.
Conversely, the Leave.EU website features 'control of our borders' quite prominently. It's also done in a more populist style.
How much it matters having two dfferent campaigns is not clear to me, but only one of them is going to get the official designation as the Leave campaign group.
It would limit Farage as the face of Leave, leaving that position open for someone more moderate and less divisive. It would still allow UKIP to fight the campaign on the streets and out in the country. I don't believe Farage is going to turn round and refuse to campaign just because his team didn't get the official nod.0 -
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The "bash the millionaires" message was actually very effective for Labour in the mid-term elections in the last parliament. It didn't work at the GE because when it comes to the government, people value competence the most, but for the mayoral election it's quite possible people will be content to vote on personalities and which one they feel "understands their lives" most.Casino_Royale said:
Also says that Khan will place Goldsmith's millionaire status at the centre of his campaign.taffys said:http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/zac-goldsmith-and-sadiq-khan-neck-and-neck-in-race-to-be-mayor-a3086691.html
Khan and Zac neck and neck according to the Standard
Labour never learn, do they?0 -
Re Brexit, I have a feeling that we may see governments being elected in EU member States who see the free movement of people as being much less desirable than hitherto.0 -
It ought really to come down to turnout. Even Boris v Ken only got 45% in 2008 and then 38% in the rematch. Labour's much vaunted ground game might be useful here, but ultimately it will come down to the strength of the messages.Danny565 said:
The "bash the millionaires" message was actually very effective for Labour in the mid-term elections in the last parliament. It didn't work at the GE because when it comes to the government, people value competence the most, but for the mayoral election it's quite possible people will be content to vote on personalities and which one they feel "understands their lives" most.Casino_Royale said:
Also says that Khan will place Goldsmith's millionaire status at the centre of his campaign.taffys said:http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/zac-goldsmith-and-sadiq-khan-neck-and-neck-in-race-to-be-mayor-a3086691.html
Khan and Zac neck and neck according to the Standard
Labour never learn, do they?0 -
DearPB said:
All fair points, Mr. PB, however the contest is unlikely to happen for at least three years so there is plenty of water to pass under the bridge. My own view is that Osborne will not stand and if I am correct that opens the contest somewhat.
I think you are absolutely correct on the importance of the EU referendum. That has the potential to change everything. I am only just becoming aware of how big a deal it will actually be as regards its indirect effects and I suspect I might actually be ahead of, at least most of, the field.
I am not so much a fan of Javid but I think he could be a very, very good PM. Even as things stand I would prefer him to any of the old guard but he could yet blow up in the stables. He is an untried colt with, on paper, great potential and who has shown great promise on the gallops. Let us see how he performs in the actual politics of office over the next couple of years.0 -
Something else to bear in mind about that mayoral poll: for some reason, London polls tend to UNDER-estimate Labour (much unlike the general UK-wide polls). In 2012, Livingstone pushed Boris much closer than expected, and I remember the London polls for the Euros in 2014 were also suggesting a relatively mediocre Labour result (when in the event it was their best region in the country). Can't remember if there were any London-specific polls for the GE this year.0
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Your daily repeat of this myth. Membership of the EEA does not require membership of Schengen. Stop lying .flightpath01 said:
Are we not already in the EEA? That would be my thought so in which case we would not need to resign from it if we leave the EU. This in turn would mean we did not need to sign up to Schengen to actually join.Richard_Nabavi said:@NickPalmer - I suspect we'd end up with something closely based on the EEA agreement but with some differences to take account of the facts that the UK is so large compared with the existing EEA countries, and that the City is such a dominant force in financial services.
I do not want us to join Schengen, but frankly it is not beyond the wit of man to see Labour signing us up in the future. It makes me think I do not want to throw the baby out with the bath water.
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That seems reasonable - so long as the official Out campaign has genuine bite to it. I understand why some people don't like Farage and Ukip, but the Out campaign must not pull any punches.Richard_Tyndall said:
Choosing the non-Farage option seems like a win all round for Leave.tlg86 said:
I don't envy the person(s) who has to make that decision.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think in the end that decision may well determine the outcome of the referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:
This is why I found the Vote Leave website so interesting on this point - they don't mention immigration at all, or at least not prominently. So it looks to me as though they agree with you on this.Richard_Tyndall said:I am inclined to think that having such a position as the post Brexit preference for the Leave campaign is fairly crucial. I ghink a clear statement that EEA membership is the vision of Leave would go a long at to convincing both business and the general public.
Conversely, the Leave.EU website features 'control of our borders' quite prominently. It's also done in a more populist style.
How much it matters having two dfferent campaigns is not clear to me, but only one of them is going to get the official designation as the Leave campaign group.
It would limit Farage as the face of Leave, leaving that position open for someone more moderate and less divisive. It would still allow UKIP to fight the campaign on the streets and out in the country. I don't believe Farage is going to turn round and refuse to campaign just because his team didn't get the official nod.0 -
Agreed but they know we will agree to a free trade in goods which weakens our position on seeking more than just that.Richard_Tyndall said:
Either side could exclude anything but both sides gave to agree to the final treaty. As such we are in a much stronger position than the EU given present trade imbalances.Philip_Thompson said:
No chance but to agree freedom of services? They could agree freedom of trade on products and leave out services if we leave out migration. EDIT: Weird wrong quote seems to have gone in, replaced it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although I am in favour of EEA membership this is rubbish. With a balance of payments in their favour to a tune of over £ 100 billion they will agree deals. They will have no choice if they don't want to see many if their companies collapse.Philip_Thompson said:Outside of the EU/EEA? No chance at all.
I agree that they will definitely agree to a free trade in goods for the reason you have said. I think the argument we won't get a free trade (in goods) if we leave is absurd for the precise reason you have said - but anything more than that minimum is not guaranteed.0 -
I think you are wrong in this respect. Life is people are different to what you suppose. The candidates will be viewed in the round.Casino_Royale said:
I must confess, what is so cynical about the Tory leadership contest is how many contenders seem to be judging their positions on the EU referendum based purely upon positioning advantage.DearPB said:
I think the betting markets reflect a cynical view of the Tory party amongst some. They think her anti-immigrant rhetoric will endear her to the a particular type of Tory. But I think those Tories joined UKIP already.HurstLlama said:
No use asking me what happened on television, Mr. D., as you know I never watch it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, I'm still not convinced.
Being serious (Patel/Greening may not, in fact, be the next PM), I find it quite difficult to pick a winner. Might be May, though I'd not back her. Boris is a non-starter unless he can build his position in the PCP rapidly.
Hammond sounds steady but is very dull and looks old.
Incidentally, how did Patel do on QT? I only saw a little bit (I can't take large doses of Farron's self-righteous zeal).
.....
I think there are five to consider - Patel, Greening, Truss, Javid and Stewart.
Stewart, for whom I had high hopes when he entered parliament has disappeared. He might yet surprise but I think not.
Of the ladies, Greening has allowed herself to be house-trained by the DfID, a department that is not held in high regard by very many Conservative Party members. Patel is just too hard and that leaves Truss. She of the sapphire blue eyes and that knowing half-smile (she could win an awful lot of male votes on that alone), but she is also, I think a clever lady who we will be seeing and hearing a lot more of over the next couple of years.
Javid
Lots might happen between now and the contest, of course, but if there are good odds to be had and cash that can be locked up I'd get on Javid and Truss.
I'm a fan of Javid and think he's the most likely non-Osborne successor to Cameron.
The biggest unknown is the EU referendum - Osborne will have to campaign to stay in. I think that the Osborne camp may hedge its bets by allowing Javid to campaign for out. They then stitch up the MPs vote to make sure it's a Javid/Osborne final two (as the Cameron campaign did to keep Fox off the ballot last time). They then don't really care who wins - Osborne wins, Javid becomes chancellor and the favourite for the next time, Javid wins, Osborne stays as Chancellor and could still go again (he's in his mid 40s after all).
It's quite depressing, as well as far more transparent than they think it is.0 -
That's a surprisingly poor poll for Sadiq Khan. I would have expected him to be considerably further ahead than that, particularly as in effect for many voters the poll is effectively "generic Conservative" vs "generic Labour".0
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That's the pollster, not Labour, saying that, presumably based on Goldsmith's low "in touch" scores.Casino_Royale said:
Also says that Khan will place Goldsmith's millionaire status at the centre of his campaign.taffys said:http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/zac-goldsmith-and-sadiq-khan-neck-and-neck-in-race-to-be-mayor-a3086691.html
Khan and Zac neck and neck according to the Standard
Labour never learn, do they?0 -
Particularly as there are so many UKIP don't knows, who in the end will switch overwhelmingly to Goldsmith.antifrank said:That's a surprisingly poor poll for Sadiq Khan. I would have expected him to be considerably further ahead than that, particularly as in effect for many voters the poll is effectively "generic Conservative" vs "generic Labour".
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Completely agreed.JEO said:
Yes, that's exactly what Leave needs. Farage and his base working hard underneath the radar, and a more moderate business-friendly, metropolitan-friendly to go on the TV and sound reasssuring.Richard_Tyndall said:
Choosing the non-Farage option seems like a win all round for Leave.tlg86 said:
I don't envy the person(s) who has to make that decision.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think in the end that decision may well determine the outcome of the referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:
This is why I found the Vote Leave website so interesting on this point - they don't mention immigration at all, or at least not prominently. So it looks to me as though they agree with you on this.Richard_Tyndall said:I am inclined to think that having such a position as the post Brexit preference for the Leave campaign is fairly crucial. I ghink a clear statement that EEA membership is the vision of Leave would go a long at to convincing both business and the general public.
Conversely, the Leave.EU website features 'control of our borders' quite prominently. It's also done in a more populist style.
How much it matters having two dfferent campaigns is not clear to me, but only one of them is going to get the official designation as the Leave campaign group.
It would limit Farage as the face of Leave, leaving that position open for someone more moderate and less divisive. It would still allow UKIP to fight the campaign on the streets and out in the country. I don't believe Farage is going to turn round and refuse to campaign just because his team didn't get the official nod.0 -
What example are you thinking of specifically?JEO said:
But you also need to look at imports displacing domestic production.rcs1000 said:
In the event of Brexit, we would clearly get a very similar deal to - for example - Switzerland, so I think arguing about this is a bit stupid. No-one wants to fuck up trade.Richard_Tyndall said:
Either side could exclude anything but both sides gave to agree to the final treaty. As such we are in a much stronger position than the EU given present trade imbalances.Philip_Thompson said:
No chance but to agree freedom of services? They could agree freedom of trade on products and leave out services if we leave out migration. EDIT: Weird wrong quote seems to have gone in, replaced it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although I am in favour of EEA membership this is rubbish. With a balance of payments in their favour to a tune of over £ 100 billion they will agree deals. They will have no choice if they don't want to see many if their companies collapse.Philip_Thompson said:Outside of the EU/EEA? No chance at all.
That being said, the EU's exports to the UK are c. £250bn p.a., and its GDP (ex the UK) is about £9 trillion. That makes exports to the UK around 3% of EU GDP.
For us, exports to the EU are are going to be £150bn out of GDP of £1.8trn, or 8% of UK GDP.
So, technically exports to the EU are a much bigger deal for us, than exports to the UK are a deal for the EU.0 -
You private sexual fantasies should really stay private, Mr. Star.Pulpstar said:Truss vs Patel would be my favoured contest from a non betting pov.
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The final YG overstated the Labour lead by 4%.Danny565 said:Something else to bear in mind about that mayoral poll: for some reason, London polls tend to UNDER-estimate Labour (much unlike the general UK-wide polls). In 2012, Livingstone pushed Boris much closer than expected, and I remember the London polls for the Euros in 2014 were also suggesting a relatively mediocre Labour result (when in the event it was their best region in the country). Can't remember if there were any London-specific polls for the GE this year.
I'd imagine that the usual demographics are most likely to vote.
2014 was dominated by a Stop-UKIP run in favour of Labour in London.0 -
Maybe in 2012, not in 2008. In 2007-8 almost all polls overestimated Livingstone's share (many even putting him in the lead).Danny565 said:Something else to bear in mind about that mayoral poll: for some reason, London polls tend to UNDER-estimate Labour (much unlike the general UK-wide polls). In 2012, Livingstone pushed Boris much closer than expected, and I remember the London polls for the Euros in 2014 were also suggesting a relatively mediocre Labour result (when in the event it was their best region in the country). Can't remember if there were any London-specific polls for the GE this year.
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All the ABC1s are annoyed they have less money than Zac whereas the C2DEs think Sadiq is getting above his station for a son of a bus driver.Tissue_Price said:Really interesting that's there's almost no class element at all - in fact Sadiq is slightly preferred amongst ABC1s and Zac amongst C2DEs (though all MOE).
Politics of envy & aspiration.0 -
Well it's all very confusing Mr L, personally I can't quite make up my mind which gender I want to be today.HurstLlama said:
You private sexual fantasies should really stay private, Mr. Star.Pulpstar said:Truss vs Patel would be my favoured contest from a non betting pov.
I may plump for scottish.0 -
Those numbers look poor for Khan.
With such a huge don;t know vote, I;m wondering where the shyness might be greatest. Would you be afraid to say Zac or Kahn more, I wonder.0 -
I make that poll about 50.5 - 49.5 to Zac based on some rough-and-ready guesses about how the Not Sures will ultimately break.Sean_F said:
Particularly as there are so many UKIP don't knows, who in the end will switch overwhelmingly to Goldsmith.antifrank said:That's a surprisingly poor poll for Sadiq Khan. I would have expected him to be considerably further ahead than that, particularly as in effect for many voters the poll is effectively "generic Conservative" vs "generic Labour".
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He's just hoping to open up more pork markets.HurstLlama said:
You private sexual fantasies should really stay private, Mr. Star.Pulpstar said:Truss vs Patel would be my favoured contest from a non betting pov.
0 -
Apparently this will be held under the new Individual Voter Registration rules, which ought to favour Zac too.0
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I think it should apply across sectors. But to pick an example like random, imagine hiring a design firm to do some logos for your company. If trade barriers went up, fewer companies in Europe would hire British design firms to do work for them. Equally, fewer British companies would hire design firms from Europe. In terms of these export flows, as a share, it's a bigger hit to British GDP than EU GDP as you say.rcs1000 said:
What example are you thinking of specifically?JEO said:
But you also need to look at imports displacing domestic production.rcs1000 said:
In the event of Brexit, we would clearly get a very similar deal to - for example - Switzerland, so I think arguing about this is a bit stupid. No-one wants to fuck up trade.Richard_Tyndall said:
Either side could exclude anything but both sides gave to agree to the final treaty. As such we are in a much stronger position than the EU given present trade imbalances.Philip_Thompson said:
No chance but to agree freedom of services? They could agree freedom of trade on products and leave out services if we leave out migration. EDIT: Weird wrong quote seems to have gone in, replaced it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although I am in favour of EEA membership this is rubbish. With a balance of payments in their favour to a tune of over £ 100 billion they will agree deals. They will have no choice if they don't want to see many if their companies collapse.Philip_Thompson said:Outside of the EU/EEA? No chance at all.
That being said, the EU's exports to the UK are c. £250bn p.a., and its GDP (ex the UK) is about £9 trillion. That makes exports to the UK around 3% of EU GDP.
For us, exports to the EU are are going to be £150bn out of GDP of £1.8trn, or 8% of UK GDP.
So, technically exports to the EU are a much bigger deal for us, than exports to the UK are a deal for the EU.
But, most of that design work will still be needed. It's just the EU companies will hire EU design firms and the UK companies will hire UK design firms, replacing the lost imports. Both the EU and the UK will get a bump from greater domestic demand because our companies struggle to hire from each other. The UK positive bump from this, as a share of GDP, will be bigger than the EU positive bump.
This is why you need to look at net exports, rather than just exports.0 -
The final UK-wide YouGov, or London poll? There's a big difference between them, because in 2014, the national polls also overstated Labour while the London polls (and subsamples) understated them.chestnut said:
The final YG overstated the Labour lead by 4%.Danny565 said:Something else to bear in mind about that mayoral poll: for some reason, London polls tend to UNDER-estimate Labour (much unlike the general UK-wide polls). In 2012, Livingstone pushed Boris much closer than expected, and I remember the London polls for the Euros in 2014 were also suggesting a relatively mediocre Labour result (when in the event it was their best region in the country). Can't remember if there were any London-specific polls for the GE this year.
0 -
You might have a point there.Danny565 said:Something else to bear in mind about that mayoral poll: for some reason, London polls tend to UNDER-estimate Labour (much unlike the general UK-wide polls). In 2012, Livingstone pushed Boris much closer than expected, and I remember the London polls for the Euros in 2014 were also suggesting a relatively mediocre Labour result (when in the event it was their best region in the country). Can't remember if there were any London-specific polls for the GE this year.
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Looks like the days of profiting out of Tower Hamlets First are numbered.Tissue_Price said:Apparently this will be held under the new Individual Voter Registration rules, which ought to favour Zac too.
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Not shyness -- there are the same high "not sures" on the supplementaries as well, so the problem is that both candidates are relatively unknown. Ken and Boris were big beasts -- Ken had dominated London politics for years if not decades, and Boris was pretty much a TV star as well as a politician.taffys said:Those numbers look poor for Khan.
With such a huge don;t know vote, I;m wondering where the shyness might be greatest. Would you be afraid to say Zac or Kahn more, I wonder.0 -
Kban is antipatico. His numbers will decline as the public gets to know him. I'm sure he'll lose badly to Goldsmith.0
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If Goldsmith does win, surely it will finally shut up those class warriors who think going to Eton is somehow going to affect one's electoral chances.MonikerDiCanio said:
Kban is antipatico. His numbers will decline as the public gets to know him. I'm sure he'll lose badly to Goldsmith.
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O/T but I see that the final part of Robert Harris' trilogy about Cicero, Dictator, has just been published today.0
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Has the Eton bonus been factored into Zac's numbers yet?Tissue_Price said:Really interesting that's there's almost no class element at all - in fact Sadiq is slightly preferred amongst ABC1s and Zac amongst C2DEs (though all MOE).
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I know Watson has been discussed, but just ot note that the BBC is now leading with his refutation.
He's being dragged into a row, whatever happens.
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Good. He fully deserves it.TheWhiteRabbit said:I know Watson has been discussed, but just ot note that the BBC is now leading with his refutation.
He's being dragged into a row, whatever happens.0 -
It was a full London poll.Danny565 said:
The final UK-wide YouGov, or London poll? There's a big difference between them, because in 2014, the national polls also overstated Labour while the London polls (and subsamples) understated them.chestnut said:
The final YG overstated the Labour lead by 4%.Danny565 said:Something else to bear in mind about that mayoral poll: for some reason, London polls tend to UNDER-estimate Labour (much unlike the general UK-wide polls). In 2012, Livingstone pushed Boris much closer than expected, and I remember the London polls for the Euros in 2014 were also suggesting a relatively mediocre Labour result (when in the event it was their best region in the country). Can't remember if there were any London-specific polls for the GE this year.
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@NewsUK: Former @theSNP comms director @KevinJPringle to join @thesundaytimes Scotland as a columnist http://t.co/D2T6snb46W http://t.co/PqiIsNKJaH0
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Given that the Jezlamists are concentrated in urban areas, half the newly energised Labour base is in London, and London's continued demographic change means Labour's ethnic minority boost just gets bigger, Khan would have to be a very poor candidate to lose.
Which, to be fair, he is.0 -
@holyroodmandy: Breaking: @lawsoc made a suspicious activity report re Christopher Hales to UK Serious Organised Crime Agency in 20110
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more media bias, it's a westminster plot !Scott_P said:@NewsUK: Former @theSNP comms director @KevinJPringle to join @thesundaytimes Scotland as a columnist http://t.co/D2T6snb46W http://t.co/PqiIsNKJaH
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The polish computer programmers I work with are employed by people in the UK and live in Poland
Completely agreed?!?Philip_Thompson said:
Completely agreed.JEO said:
Yes, that's exactly what Leave needs. Farage and his base working hard underneath the radar, and a more moderate business-friendly, metropolitan-friendly to go on the TV and sound reasssuring.Richard_Tyndall said:
Choosing the non-Farage option seems like a win all round for Leave.tlg86 said:
I don't envy the person(s) who has to make that decision.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think in the end that decision may well determine the outcome of the referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:
This is why I found the Vote Leave website so interesting on this point - they don't mention immigration at all, or at least not prominently. So it looks to me as though they agree with you on this.Richard_Tyndall said:I am inclined to think that having such a position as the post Brexit preference for the Leave campaign is fairly crucial. I ghink a clear statement that EEA membership is the vision of Leave would go a long at to convincing both business and the general public.
Conversely, the Leave.EU website features 'control of our borders' quite prominently. It's also done in a more populist style.
How much it matters having two dfferent campaigns is not clear to me, but only one of them is going to get the official designation as the Leave campaign group.
It would limit Farage as the face of Leave, leaving that position open for someone more moderate and less divisive. It would still allow UKIP to fight the campaign on the streets and out in the country. I don't believe Farage is going to turn round and refuse to campaign just because his team didn't get the official nod.
It's what I've been saying for two days and you keep arguing with me about!0 -
The poll confirms my suspicions that Khan will lose the election to Goldsmith, whereas Tessa Jowell would have walked it for Labour.JEO said:Given that the Jezlamists are concentrated in urban areas, half the newly energised Labour base is in London, and London's continued demographic change means Labour's ethnic minority boost just gets bigger, Khan would have to be a very poor candidate to lose.
Which, to be fair, he is.0 -
Newspapers sales: Sun loses 15k readers/month, The Times is weirdly good at the print thing http://t.co/oHrvo6yDOA http://t.co/e5tnb0hKuh0
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O/T:
"London's highly anticipated version of Munich's Oktoberfest has been cancelled after unexpectedly large crowds turned up for the opening night, leaving organisers unable to cope.
Today's afternoon drinking session of Oktoberfest London at Tobacco Dock was axed minutes before doors were due to open. Talks are ongoing to salvage the remainder of the event."
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-oktoberfest-cancelled-half-an-hour-before-doors-were-due-to-open-because-of-operational-a3086611.html0 -
There were loads, here's an article on themCasino_Royale said:
You might have a point there.Danny565 said:Something else to bear in mind about that mayoral poll: for some reason, London polls tend to UNDER-estimate Labour (much unlike the general UK-wide polls). In 2012, Livingstone pushed Boris much closer than expected, and I remember the London polls for the Euros in 2014 were also suggesting a relatively mediocre Labour result (when in the event it was their best region in the country). Can't remember if there were any London-specific polls for the GE this year.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/apr/27/general-election-why-labour-dominating-london-polls-uk0 -
No it's not, you've just not been willing to comprehend the difference.isam said:The polish computer programmers I work with are employed by people in the UK and live in Poland
Completely agreed?!?Philip_Thompson said:
Completely agreed.JEO said:
Yes, that's exactly what Leave needs. Farage and his base working hard underneath the radar, and a more moderate business-friendly, metropolitan-friendly to go on the TV and sound reasssuring.Richard_Tyndall said:
Choosing the non-Farage option seems like a win all round for Leave.tlg86 said:
I don't envy the person(s) who has to make that decision.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think in the end that decision may well determine the outcome of the referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:
This is why I found the Vote Leave website so interesting on this point - they don't mention immigration at all, or at least not prominently. So it looks to me as though they agree with you on this.Richard_Tyndall said:I am inclined to think that having such a position as the post Brexit preference for the Leave campaign is fairly crucial. I ghink a clear statement that EEA membership is the vision of Leave would go a long at to convincing both business and the general public.
Conversely, the Leave.EU website features 'control of our borders' quite prominently. It's also done in a more populist style.
How much it matters having two dfferent campaigns is not clear to me, but only one of them is going to get the official designation as the Leave campaign group.
It would limit Farage as the face of Leave, leaving that position open for someone more moderate and less divisive. It would still allow UKIP to fight the campaign on the streets and out in the country. I don't believe Farage is going to turn round and refuse to campaign just because his team didn't get the official nod.
It's what I've been saying for two days and you keep arguing with me about!
Farage has a role to play as a part of the campaign but not dominating the campaign. "Farage and his base working hard underneath the radar" is very different to a "Farage fronting the campaign". "A more moderate business-friendly, metropolitan-friendly to go on the TV and sound reassuring" is very different to "Farage fronting the campaign".
JEO and Tyndall get this. Its not my fault if you don't.0 -
Call me a pessimist but I fear we will remain in the EU with Sadiq Khan as Mayor of LondonJEO said:Given that the Jezlamists are concentrated in urban areas, half the newly energised Labour base is in London, and London's continued demographic change means Labour's ethnic minority boost just gets bigger, Khan would have to be a very poor candidate to lose.
Which, to be fair, he is.
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Never good news to be talking about SOCA in any other context than the soul of calypso.....Scott_P said:@holyroodmandy: Breaking: @lawsoc made a suspicious activity report re Christopher Hales to UK Serious Organised Crime Agency in 2011
Non-story though. Apparently.0 -
Wonder what the paywall/ad/ipad sales are like tho.Plato_Says said:Newspapers sales: Sun loses 15k readers/month, The Times is weirdly good at the print thing http://t.co/oHrvo6yDOA http://t.co/e5tnb0hKuh
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it is your fault that I have been saying Farage should not front the campaign and should be working hard under the radar but you argue with me as if I have been saying he should front the campaign thoughPhilip_Thompson said:
No it's not, you've just not been willing to comprehend the difference.isam said:The polish computer programmers I work with are employed by people in the UK and live in Poland
Completely agreed?!?Philip_Thompson said:
Completely agreed.JEO said:
Yes, that's exactly what Leave needs. Farage and his base working hard underneath the radar, and a more moderate business-friendly, metropolitan-friendly to go on the TV and sound reasssuring.Richard_Tyndall said:
Choosing the non-Farage option seems like a win all round for Leave.tlg86 said:
I don't envy the person(s) who has to make that decision.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think in the end that decision may well determine the outcome of the referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:
This is why I found the Vote Leave website so interesting on this point - they don't mention immigration at all, or at least not prominently. So it looks to me as though they agree with you on this.Richard_Tyndall said:I am inclined to think that having such a position as the post Brexit preference for the Leave campaign is fairly crucial. I ghink a clear statement that EEA membership is the vision of Leave would go a long at to convincing both business and the general public.
Conversely, the Leave.EU website features 'control of our borders' quite prominently. It's also done in a more populist style.
How much it matters having two dfferent campaigns is not clear to me, but only one of them is going to get the official designation as the Leave campaign group.
It derate ng to turn round and refuse to campaign just because his team didn't get the official nod.
It's what I've been saying for two days and you keep arguing with me about!
Farage has a role to play as a part of the campaign but not dominating the campaign. "Farage and his base working hard underneath the radar" is very different to a "Farage fronting the campaign". "A more moderate business-friendly, metropolitan-friendly to go on the TV and sound reassuring" is very different to "Farage fronting the campaign".
JEO and Tyndall get this. Its not my fault if you don't.
I have never thought he should and never said he should - that's where you're going wrong0 -
I’d say that was cause for optimism myself. Still one mans meat and all that!isam said:
Call me a pessimist but I fear we will remain in the EU with Sadiq Khan as Mayor of LondonJEO said:Given that the Jezlamists are concentrated in urban areas, half the newly energised Labour base is in London, and London's continued demographic change means Labour's ethnic minority boost just gets bigger, Khan would have to be a very poor candidate to lose.
Which, to be fair, he is.0 -
@ScotTories: The Law Society confirms it reported allegations surrounding the Christopher Hales property case to police in 2011 http://t.co/zcDvAcGLwq0
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isam said:
There were loads, here's an article on themCasino_Royale said:
You might have a point there.Danny565 said:Something else to bear in mind about that mayoral poll: for some reason, London polls tend to UNDER-estimate Labour (much unlike the general UK-wide polls). In 2012, Livingstone pushed Boris much closer than expected, and I remember the London polls for the Euros in 2014 were also suggesting a relatively mediocre Labour result (when in the event it was their best region in the country). Can't remember if there were any London-specific polls for the GE this year.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/apr/27/general-election-why-labour-dominating-london-polls-ukAccording to recent polling by ICM and YouGov, Miliband’s party enjoys a double-digit lead over the Tories in the capital. Labour is on 42% and 45% with the two pollsters, while the Tories are on 32% and 34%.
Labour's London score in the event: 43.7%, So not as big an understatement as in 2012/14, but still closer to the mark than the wild over-estimation of Labour in the UK-wide polls.0 -
Britain Elects @britainelects 3 hrs3 hours ago
Liberal Democrat GAIN Aird & Loch Ness (Highland) from SNP.0 -
Times has 400k - no idea on the Sun but I see stories occasionally, so perhaps they're not quite to tight on their paywalling?Pulpstar said:
Wonder what the paywall/ad/ipad sales are like tho.Plato_Says said:Newspapers sales: Sun loses 15k readers/month, The Times is weirdly good at the print thing http://t.co/oHrvo6yDOA http://t.co/e5tnb0hKuh
0 -
It's not that uncommon for a law firm to send a report to SOCA, essentially asking for permission to proceed with the transaction. It's certainly a procedure with which most solicitors would be familiar.
It's a product in part of the fact that you can't ask too many questions of a client at that stage without tipping htem off that you suspect them of wrongdoing.
What the equivalent looks like for the Law Society I do not know.0 -
Do we know how the pollsters select from the different parts of London - especially to get a balanced sample of inner and outer London boroughs? I seem to recall widely different voting patterns last time.0
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Rather odd as the SNP vote went up. In any case it's the comparability problem of a 2nd or lower place on the area list being given a by election which automatically tends to give the by election the equivalent of a first place result from the main election. Works both ways though!chestnut said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3 hrs3 hours ago
Liberal Democrat GAIN Aird & Loch Ness (Highland) from SNP.
0 -
Christ - the list of accusations made by Watson against Brittan http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3266500/Labour-deputy-leader-Tom-Watson-DEFENDS-role-hounding-Leon-Brittan-unfounded-sex-crime-slurs.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=14900
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You don't live in London!OldKingCole said:
I’d say that was cause for optimism myself. Still one mans meat and all that!isam said:
Call me a pessimist but I fear we will remain in the EU with Sadiq Khan as Mayor of LondonJEO said:Given that the Jezlamists are concentrated in urban areas, half the newly energised Labour base is in London, and London's continued demographic change means Labour's ethnic minority boost just gets bigger, Khan would have to be a very poor candidate to lose.
Which, to be fair, he is.0 -
I've just noticed that Labour didn't stand in the Aird and Loch Ness by election.0
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You may want to plump for Innuit, if you want more gender choices. The Inuit have a tripartite system in which some individuals, men or women, straddle the social frontier between the sexes/genders.Alanbrooke said:
Well it's all very confusing Mr L, personally I can't quite make up my mind which gender I want to be today.HurstLlama said:
You private sexual fantasies should really stay private, Mr. Star.Pulpstar said:Truss vs Patel would be my favoured contest from a non betting pov.
I may plump for scottish.0 -
No; thought about thatt. Whoever is Mayor doesn’t matter much to me.isam said:
You don't live in London!OldKingCole said:
I’d say that was cause for optimism myself. Still one mans meat and all that!isam said:
Call me a pessimist but I fear we will remain in the EU with Sadiq Khan as Mayor of LondonJEO said:Given that the Jezlamists are concentrated in urban areas, half the newly energised Labour base is in London, and London's continued demographic change means Labour's ethnic minority boost just gets bigger, Khan would have to be a very poor candidate to lose.
Which, to be fair, he is.0 -
Miss Plato, reminds me of the term 'delator' who was someone who informed on quips and mutterings in private (dinner parties and so forth) to Tiberius/Sejanus, who would then have them killed.
The Toad's rumblings undermine the important principle Parliamentary privilege due to his partisan posturing.0 -
Waitress in one of the local pubs is part Inuit, she says.MarqueeMark said:
You may want to plump for Innuit, if you want more gender choices. The Inuit have a tripartite system in which some individuals, men or women, straddle the social frontier between the sexes/genders.Alanbrooke said:
Well it's all very confusing Mr L, personally I can't quite make up my mind which gender I want to be today.HurstLlama said:
You private sexual fantasies should really stay private, Mr. Star.Pulpstar said:Truss vs Patel would be my favoured contest from a non betting pov.
I may plump for scottish.0 -
could be a blokeOldKingCole said:
Waitress in one of the local pubs is part Inuit, she says.MarqueeMark said:
You may want to plump for Innuit, if you want more gender choices. The Inuit have a tripartite system in which some individuals, men or women, straddle the social frontier between the sexes/genders.Alanbrooke said:
Well it's all very confusing Mr L, personally I can't quite make up my mind which gender I want to be today.HurstLlama said:
You private sexual fantasies should really stay private, Mr. Star.Pulpstar said:Truss vs Patel would be my favoured contest from a non betting pov.
I may plump for scottish.0 -
As Littlejohn points out, why did The Toad refuse to sign a letter from MPs calling on the DPP to reopen inquiries into Labour’s Greville Janner?Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, reminds me of the term 'delator' who was someone who informed on quips and mutterings in private (dinner parties and so forth) to Tiberius/Sejanus, who would then have them killed.
The Toad's rumblings undermine the important principle Parliamentary privilege due to his partisan posturing.
0 -
x
I wonder if there is a resource showing how each constituency voted in Boris vs Ken 2012?felix said:Do we know how the pollsters select from the different parts of London - especially to get a balanced sample of inner and outer London boroughs? I seem to recall widely different voting patterns last time.
Old school Labour voters in Dagenham & Rainham may have voted for Ken but wont for Sadiq..
Maybe the UKIP voters in D&R will feel more comfortable voting Tory now having dipped their toe into the non Labour pool?
Also I would have though genuine Greens would vote Zac.. Watermelons will vote Khan I guess0 -
Mr. 30, one can imagine the Witchsmeller Pursuivant was uninterested in attacking someone who, in his eyes, was clearly not a witch [I am undecided upon my preferred derogatory nickname for Watson. I believe both have merit].
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It was taken just after Goldsmith was selected, with copious Evening Standard coverage, so Khan being still ahead probably suggests a few points in hand when things settle down. I expect it to be tight, though.antifrank said:That's a surprisingly poor poll for Sadiq Khan. I would have expected him to be considerably further ahead than that, particularly as in effect for many voters the poll is effectively "generic Conservative" vs "generic Labour".
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Jounalists from across the political spectrum lining up to question Zoe Williams "spitting" argument
@zoesqwilliams: @owenjbennett you have to look beyond your own horizon at the interplay between exclusion and anger
@DPJHodges: The issue people in this country feel most angry, impotent and excluded about is immigration. Do we want them taking "direct action"?
@zoesqwilliams: @DPJHodges You diminish yourself with these reductio ad absurdum args. Why don't you just write a blog about me and spin 90 quid out of it0 -
Germany is facing a few troubles:
Processing centres exceeded capacity weeks ago. Local authorities are struggling to find housing, since temporary tent cities will not suffice in winter. The government of Hamburg has begun seizing empty office buildings to house refugees, raising constitutional questions. Berlin and Bremen are considering similar measures. Schools are struggling to integrate refugee children who speak no German.
Fights have broken out inside overcrowded asylum centres, often between young men of different ethnic or religious groups. There have been more arson attacks on migrant centres. In Dresden, a xenophobic movement called Pegida is growing again: about 9,000 protested this Monday against refugees.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21672296-after-historic-embrace-refugees-german-public-opinion-turning-merkel-her-limit
And Bavaria is suing the federal government. Could the CDU-CSU coalition split?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/09/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0S31H2201510090 -
Exactly.Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Plato, reminds me of the term 'delator' who was someone who informed on quips and mutterings in private (dinner parties and so forth) to Tiberius/Sejanus, who would then have them killed.
The Toad's rumblings undermine the important principle Parliamentary privilege due to his partisan posturing.0 -
Farage is an immensly powerful asset if he gets the sting removed from him. The sting is leadership - the idea of Nigel as a potential PM. Take that away from him and people will recall they actually quite agree with much of what he says, as in the Clegg debates.Richard_Tyndall said:
Choosing the non-Farage option seems like a win all round for Leave.tlg86 said:
I don't envy the person(s) who has to make that decision.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think in the end that decision may well determine the outcome of the referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:
This is why I found the Vote Leave website so interesting on this point - they don't mention immigration at all, or at least not prominently. So it looks to me as though they agree with you on this.Richard_Tyndall said:I am inclined to think that having such a position as the post Brexit preference for the Leave campaign is fairly crucial. I ghink a clear statement that EEA membership is the vision of Leave would go a long at to convincing both business and the general public.
Conversely, the Leave.EU website features 'control of our borders' quite prominently. It's also done in a more populist style.
How much it matters having two dfferent campaigns is not clear to me, but only one of them is going to get the official designation as the Leave campaign group.
It would limit Farage as the face of Leave, leaving that position open for someone more moderate and less divisive. It would still allow UKIP to fight the campaign on the streets and out in the country. I don't believe Farage is going to turn round and refuse to campaign just because his team didn't get the official nod.
Having said that, the next leader must be prepared to undergo very similar media villification, and potentially end up with their image just as tarnished - it goes with the territory.0 -
Russia don't seem to be doing a very good job of stopping ISIS:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/09/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-idUSKCN0S30J220151009
It might help if they actually bombed ISIS, rather than the FSA...0 -
Mr. JEO, it's almost as if it were a demented policy to start with.
This is why immigration won't harm the Conservatives [although in other circumstances it might]. Germany's approach is madness. Corbyn is very pro-large scale migration. The Conservatives are failing on their targets badly but are still better than the Leader of the Opposition or Merkel.
Mr. P, no reductio needed for Williams to be rendered absurdum.0
