politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 7th 2015

Riverside on Cardiff (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservatives 7, Independents 3, Plaid Cymru 2, Heath Independent 1 (Labour majority of 17)
Result of ward at last election (2012) :
0
Comments
And it occurs to me that there are probably some National Socialists who make a similar "the NSDAP weren't real National Socialists".
I think you are confusing the communism of the Healey kind with the Stalinist purges which had nothing to do with communism but more to do with dictatorial power. The communists come in many shades.
Would you believe it, the world's fastest growing economic power [ still ] is run by a communist [sic] party ? I know you admire them too ! I don't. I find the entire business practice endemically corrupt. Even more so than in India, say.
My own flirtation with Marxism as distinct from Communism [ I was never a member of any other party ] was from my student days. To those who say one changes over the years, I never changed.
I have been sentenced though having to run a company in a capitalist world !
Oh, wait......
You said Ethics
Presumably, when an 11 year old kills an 8 year old, all 8 year olds should be armed too ?
There are people on the raving Right who could just say that.
Sol Campbell meanwhile has moved on from mayoral ambitions to try and become a Tory Peer saying "I want to be a Lord. I'm not sure what of, or the title , but the next goal is to be a peer"
http://www.westhamonline.net/forum_flat.php?8124246||mc=o||
I incorrectly credited Tim T with it a number of threads ago.
The posts you have made are very interesting reading.
By having such a ridiculous student left wing, that sees anyone that doesnt want the entire 3rd world imported to england as hitler, Cameron gets to be called a vicious right winger while actually behaving like a moderate lefty. The tory badge kissers just want their team in charge even if they are new labour, so accept whatever he says, while the opposition maintain his right wing credentials for him by being to the left of Ryan Giggs... The perfect storm
1. Pledge on planning reform, including that "affordable" housing as part of new development be available to buy rather than rent as at present.
2. Reform of social services, along the lines of previous schools reform, threatening takeover of failing SS departments.
3. Making every school an Academy, no longer will local authorities run schools.
4. Prison reform touched on earlier in the week. Selling Dickensian inner-city prisons and building modern jails, more use of tagging to allow non-violent offenders to keep jobs, reforms to prison education system to reduce repeat offending.
Pennsylvania
Donald Trump 23% (24%)
Ben Carson 17% (13%)
Marco Rubio 12% (10%)
Carly Fiorina 8% (7%)
Ted Cruz 6% (5%)
Chris Christie 5% (2%)
Jeb Bush 4% (6%)
Mike Huckabee 4% (2%)
John Kasich 3% (3%)
All others 2% or below
Sample: 427 registered Republicans.Dates: 9/25 – 105. Margin of error: +/- 4.7. Results from poll dated 8/7-18 are in parentheses.
Ohio
Donald Trump 23% (21%)
Ben Carson 18% (6%)
John Kasich 13% (27%)
Ted Cruz 11% (7%)
Carly Fiorina 10% (5%)
Marco Rubio 7% (7%)
Jeb Bush 4% (5%)
Rand Paul 3% (2%)
All others 2% or below
Sample: 433 registered Republicans. Dates: 9/25 – 10/5. Margin of error: +/- 4.7.
Florida
Donald Trump 28% (21%)
Ben Carson 16% (11%)
Marco Rubio 14% (11%)
Jeb Bush 12% (17%)
Carly Fiorina 7% (7%)
Ted Cruz 6% (7%)
All others 2% or below
Democrats
Pennsylvania
Clinton 36%
Biden 25%
Sanders 19%
Ohio
Clinton 40%
Biden 21%
Sanders 19%
Florida
Clinton 43%
Sanders 19%
Biden 19%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287
I don't think anybody at that time thought that the pact made Germany and the USSR friends. It was seen as buying time for the Soviets. And it did work. Since December 1941, the Germans were on the back foot, long before Johnny Come Lately arrived with the chewing gums !
vs. Clinton
Carson 49% (–)
Clinton 40% (–)
Bush 46% (43%)
Clinton 40% (40%)
Fiorina 45% (–)
Clinton 41% (–)
Rubio 45% (47%)
Clinton 42% (40%)
Clinton 44% (45%)
Trump 42% (40%)
vs. Biden
Carson 47% (–)
Biden 42% (–)
Biden 44% (–)
Fiorina 43% (–)
Biden 45% (41%)
Rubio 43% (44%)
Biden 45% (42%)
Bush 42% (39%)
Biden 50% (48%)
Trump 40% (40%)
vs. Sanders
Carson 47% (–)
Sanders 37% (–)
Rubio 45% (45%)
Sanders 39% (33%)
Fiorina 44% (–)
Sanders 40% (–)
Bush 44% (44%)
Sanders 42% (36%)
Sanders 46% (44%)
Trump 41% (41%)
Quinnipiac- Ohio General Election
vs. Clinton
Carson 49% (–)
Clinton 40% (–)
Rubio 45% (42%)
Clinton 41% (40%)
Bush 43% (39%)
Clinton 41% (41%)
Fiorina 43% (–)
Clinton 41% (–)
Clinton 43% (43%)
Trump 42% (38%)
vs. Biden
Carson 46% (–)
Biden 42% (–)
Biden 44% (–)
Fiorina 42% (–)
Biden 46% (42%)
Rubio 41% (41%)
Biden 46% (42%)
Bush 37% (39%)
Biden 49% (48%)
Trump 38% (38%)
vs. Sanders
Carson 48% (–)
Sanders 36% (–)
Fiorina 43% (–)
Sanders 39% (–)
Rubio 43% (42%)
Sanders 40% (34%)
Bush 42% (42%)
Sanders 40% (36%)
Sanders 44% (42%)
Trump 41% (40%)
Quinnipiac- Florida General Election
vs. Clinton
Rubio 45% (51%)
Clinton 44% (39%)
Bush 44% (49%)
Clinton 43% (38%)
Clinton 45% (–)
Carson 43% (–)
Clinton 44% (–)
Fiorina 42% (–)
Clinton 46% (41%)
Trump 41% (43%)
vs. Biden
Biden 46% (42%)
Rubio 43% (48%)
Biden 45% (–)
Carson 42% (–)
Biden 46% (38%)
Bush 42% (51%)
Biden 49% (–)
Fiorina 38% (–)
Biden 52% (45%)
Trump 38% (42%)
vs. Sanders
Carson 46% (–)
Sanders 40% (–)
Rubio 46% (52%)
Sanders 41% (36%)
Bush 45% (54%)
Sanders 41% (35%)
Fiorina 42% (–)
Sanders 41% (–)
Sanders 46% (41%)
Trump 41% (45%)
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287
Rutgers University football - the university has ordered an internal probe into the football recruiting hostess program
*titter*
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/Election-2016/fl/2016-Republican-Primaries-How-Delegates-Will-be-Awarded.htm
No-one is 'too busy' to meet Her Majesty, unless they deliberately don't want to meet her. Corbyn's dissembling on this, like the national anthem signing, is disingenuous.
Crediting TimT - you bastard!!
My grandfather was attacked by hard left organisers of wild cat strikes in the Glasgow dockyards during the Pact period - physically. They thought he was a ring leader among those who insisted that only strike they would support was an official union strike, during the war. They wanted to disrupt the capitalist war against "their" ally.
But Her Majesty might find that she is too busy to agree to an Order in Council to appoint the unpleasant little man as a Privy Counsellor. It's not as though any counsel he could provide would be of any use to anyone.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/10/cameron-the-second-best-tory-leader-of-the-past-century.html
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/651870489653198848
If he can't be bothered to be sworn in, then he shouldn't be a member of the Privy Council. Saves us the bother of worrying as to which of his undesirable friends he's likely to be leaking information.
It seemed possible for a while, and then it became evident that it wasn't going to work: too much bleak history in Eastern Europe casting its shadow. I'm not sure there was a specific event, merely that I grew up, looked around, and decided social democracy was a more viable ambition. I joined Labour on my 21st birthday.
Incidentally, I don't think Corbyn was ever a Communist. Bit of a right-winger really. :-)
You can't be a Londoner if you were born in Grimsby!!
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/651873623905566720
All it is, is another old institution used for a new purpose. Macguire knows this but the 16 year old version of him is fighting its way out.
I know according to the criteria used that's the case, but I don't think it reflects reality.
To be fair the article does allude to that a bit.
Corbyn is more of an issues person, well meant though but without any thorough intellectual position. There isn't a major intellect on the left of the party today.
Is Wile E Corbynote keeping time free to launch a hostile takeover of the Woodcraft Folk?
I hope for his sake he never has to travel to the USA, unless he has a predilection for small cells and full body searches.
Another JC in the mix.
Time for bed.
Isn't this a bit of a problem? You're basically admitting that your values are those of the hard left. IMO it's not enough for Labour to say that such ideas don't work. Most of the public believe they are wrong in principle - that people should be rewarded proportionate to their contribution. It also shows a dismaying lack of interest in freedom.
I do wonder if Labour wiping out the liberals was the worst thing that could have happened to this country and we'd have been better off with bleeding heart liberals as the main opposition to the dominant Tories of the last century. At least in the US they are dominant within the democrats.
You can try and argue the nuance all you please, Corbyn hasn't been doing so all these years. But don't try and pretend anyone other than Corbyn is misleading anyone. Corbyn is a vile man who said all this and just because you find it vile that Corbyn said it does not make it vile for Cameron to point out that Corbyn said it.
Maybe if Labour had ejected Corbyn like they had Galloway; maybe if they had not nominated him for the leadership; maybe if they hadn't elected him then this wouldn't be an issue. But you're in denial if you think that the Labour Party can elect a security-threatening, terrorist-sympathising, Britain-hating individual without the PM calling them out on it.
The only nastiness on display has been from the baying mob of TUC and Corbyn organised fanatics outside the gates. Not calling Corbyn out on what he actually said!
I think Cameron will rank with Baldwin and MacMillan as a great one nation PM. A lot of his colleagues are far more dodgy.
He is a big fan of Common Core, which Republicans hate. He likes to cite his education policy in Florida, where it's failing and a committee has just been set up to evaluate whether to continue it. That makes it problematic for him.
So he can't really talk about his key policy plank. Also he is quiet even compared to Ben Carson who has at last mastered the art of making attention getting statements without them being dumb or demonstrably wrong, whereas Bush tries to - to use his expression - crawl like a turtle towards the nomination. He reminds me a bit of IDS, 'the quiet man'.
It's early days and there's a long way to go. He might recover. Doesn't seem likely.
It's good that he seems to be up for serious attempts to tackle serious problems. It's an agenda I could get behind. However, his party are backing him at the moment, but things can change very quickly as we know. And then what?
May I say my thanks as a Limey for all that the Feds have done over FIFA and show what a useless bunch of twats Europeans have been over this.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/651879729838977024
The FBI investigation into Clinton's email has now extended to a second tech company.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/10/07/fbi-probe-hillary-clinton-emails-expands-to-second-tech-company/
Employees at the company that maintained Hillary Clinton's private email server expressed concern among themselves about the way the former secretary of state's team directed them to manage data backups after the FBI started looking into the arrangements, according to emails obtained by a senator.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/politics/hillary-clinton-emails-platte-river-networks/
The FBI has seized four State Department computer servers as part of its probe into how classified information was compromised on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s private email system, according to people familiar with the investigation.
http://freebeacon.com/politics/fbi-seizes-four-state-department-servers-in-clinton-email-probe/
A Connecticut company, which backed up Hillary Clinton‘s emails at the request of a Colorado firm, apparently surprised her aides by storing the emails on a “cloud” storage system designed to optimize data recovery.
The firm, Datto Inc., said Wednesday that it turned over the contents of its storage to the FBI on Tuesday.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article37968711.html
Flightpath: Moniker politely asked a question, so I replied. No monkeys involved.
Like a death at a birthday party,
you ruin all the fun.
Like a sucked and spat out Smartie,
you’re no use to anyone.
and which ends
Your dirty name gets passed about when something goes amiss.
Your attitudes are platitudes,
just make me wanna piss.
What kind of creature bore you?
Was it some kind of bat?
They can’t find a good word for you,
but I can...
TWAT.
Like everyone else I thought Trump was bound to implode or crash and burn, but it hasn't happened. His weakness is policy and as a debater. When policy time comes that's when he'll maybe start to stumble. Also his honesty numbers are bad.
Carson is the wild card here - a female black professor at Penn called him a coon on TV recently. So he seems to be stirring things up. His comments - politically incorrect but accurate - on the collapse of the black nuclear family and black on black crime have got much attention.
Poring through current polls doesn't help - this is a serendipitous and pseudo-random process and utterly impossible to predict at present - we're all just guessing.
The S.E.C. Primary will cause some fall out.
On the Democratic side, there are 3 in the Dem debate -Clinton, O'Malley and Sanders. PLUS Biden if he announces even the day of the debate. It will be moderated by Rachel Maddow, a way leftie from execrable MsNBC (CNN at least tries to be a good news network). Remember how tough the Fox Republican debate questioning was? This won't be like that. Clinton will do just fine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsvFwOLWyC8
There's only one real everlasting political conflict - the populace vs. those who would wield and abuse power over them. That power in the hands of the few can manifest itself in kings, corporations, banks, billionaires, or states - the latter being one of the most deadly and pernicious.
a lot of people think the Republican field will narrow to Jeb and Trump - a race between the tortoise and the bad hair
If Bernie Sanders wins, he'll be the first socialist elected president since 2008.