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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank says what should we think about polling now?
Most people were taken by surprise by the general election result in May. Why? Well, most people’s expectations were set by the abundance of opinion polls which by election day had settled on a consensus showing the two main parties neck and neck at around 33% or 34%. The actual result, with the Conservatives on 37% and Labour on 31%, came as a bombshell. (In fairness to the pollsters, the…
Comments
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Was 97 really unexpected? I thought the polls were exaggerating Labour's lead, if anything.0
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I did look at the trend! It told me Labour would win!
Point 8 is the killer - we all know they are 'not predictions' but fact is everyone treats them as though they are, and people lose their political positions due to them sometimes, ask the Australians.0 -
I must say I quite enjoyed this 'template Leader's speech':
Friends, our party is the best party because our party has the best values. Uniquely, our party believes in hope, opportunity, decency and prosperity. Unlike NAME OF RIVAL PARTY, who believe in the opposite of all those things. Because – and let’s be frank here – people from NAME OF RIVAL PARTY are rubbish, and you, my audience, are inherently superior to them!
[Pause for standing ovation.]
We are a party that believes in young people. But also in old people. And also in people whose age falls somewhere in between. Because let’s not forget: those people used to be young people. And one day, they will be old people. Unless they die in the meantime. But even if they do, our party will still believe in them.
And that’s why I say to you this. Something something something, our NHS!
[Pause for standing ovation.]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11909127/How-to-write-the-perfect-speech-for-a-political-party-conference.html0 -
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
Opinion polls comparing 2015 with 2020 will be particularly useless until we get an indication of the specific boundary changes upon which they will be fought - down from 650 to 600 - and which sitting MP is fighting which seat.0
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"And in two elections (February ’74 and 2010) there was a hung parliament that few anticipated."
Contrary everyone anticipated them because of the Liberal surge in both of them.
Apart from that, the article is good advice.0 -
Comrade Napoleon himself said,kle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
It won't affect it very much, if votes in individual constituencies mattered so much rather than the national or even the regional picture then Lord A would have taken an excellence in polling award instead of what he really took.MarqueeMark said:Opinion polls comparing 2015 with 2020 will be particularly useless until we get an indication of the specific boundary changes upon which they will be fought - down from 650 to 600 - and which sitting MP is fighting which seat.
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Apparently it makes a world of difference for certain denialskle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?
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FPT
Floater said:
» show previous quotes
Southam has made his feelings about the current loony Labour party and their hangers on very clear.
Indeed he has and many times.
I was not referring to SO though that's the problem of posting you cannot get all in the post. It's the seniors in the party I was referring too.0 -
I note Jezbollah hasn't condemned the intimidation of delegates (and those who were presumed to be delegates)RobD said:
Apparently it makes a world of difference for certain denialskle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
City Wag
Apparently Waitrose in central Manchester ran out of eggs. Couldn’t make it up #No2Austerity #CPC150 -
You're forgetting, they are Tory Scum. The journalists were simply guilty by association.TheScreamingEagles said:
I note Jezbollah hasn't condemned the intimidation of delegates (and those who were presumed to be delegates)RobD said:
Apparently it makes a world of difference for certain denialskle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
Lol
"I read that we are inhabiting the common ground," @Anna_Soubry - "actually we inhabit the sensible centre ground where elections are won"0 -
I know, it's amusing, all it will do is firm up the UKIP to Con switchback that a lot of delegates are reporting.RobD said:
You're forgetting, they are Tory Scum. The journalists were simply guilty by association.TheScreamingEagles said:
I note Jezbollah hasn't condemned the intimidation of delegates (and those who were presumed to be delegates)RobD said:
Apparently it makes a world of difference for certain denialskle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
Why should he?TheScreamingEagles said:
I note Jezbollah hasn't condemned the intimidation of delegates (and those who were presumed to be delegates)RobD said:
Apparently it makes a world of difference for certain denialskle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
He's got the ball in the air. He can whack it over the stadium walls if he chooses.kle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?
He has about 12 hours.
He will not say more though, he'll never be PM, and he'll go down in history as the worst of people. Inspired by others, backed by scoundrels, and a man that would wish to put his own stupidity before the interests of the country.
However he still has those 12 hours.
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So it's okay for party members to be spat on, have eggs thrown at them, and generally abused? I am sure your reaction would not be the same if it were happening at the Labour conference, and Cameron was asked to condemn it.JWisemann said:
Why should he?TheScreamingEagles said:
I note Jezbollah hasn't condemned the intimidation of delegates (and those who were presumed to be delegates)RobD said:
Apparently it makes a world of difference for certain denialskle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
50% in the polls, here we comeTheScreamingEagles said:
I know, it's amusing, all it will do is firm up the UKIP to Con switchback that a lot of delegates are reporting.RobD said:
You're forgetting, they are Tory Scum. The journalists were simply guilty by association.TheScreamingEagles said:
I note Jezbollah hasn't condemned the intimidation of delegates (and those who were presumed to be delegates)RobD said:
Apparently it makes a world of difference for certain denialskle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?
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JWisemann argues we should count a chunk of UKIP as left-wing (ignoring very right wing views on benefit spending...) Well a big chunk of Labour voters have right wing social views so should count as part of the right wing bloc.0
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12 hours to save theOmnium said:
He's got the ball in the air. He can whack it over the stadium walls if he chooses.kle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?
He has about 12 hours.
He will not say more though, he'll never be PM, and he'll go down in history as the worst of people. Inspired by others, backed by scoundrels, and a man that would wish to put his own stupidity before the interests of the country.
However he still has those 12 hours.NHSLabour Party!0 -
I'm hoping for at least 60% in at least one poll in this parliament.RobD said:
50% in the polls, here we comeTheScreamingEagles said:
I know, it's amusing, all it will do is firm up the UKIP to Con switchback that a lot of delegates are reporting.RobD said:
You're forgetting, they are Tory Scum. The journalists were simply guilty by association.TheScreamingEagles said:
I note Jezbollah hasn't condemned the intimidation of delegates (and those who were presumed to be delegates)RobD said:
Apparently it makes a world of difference for certain denialskle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
Because he is associating himself with the protesters and the intimidation is disgusting.JWisemann said:
Why should he?TheScreamingEagles said:
I note Jezbollah hasn't condemned the intimidation of delegates (and those who were presumed to be delegates)RobD said:
Apparently it makes a world of difference for certain denialskle4 said:
What's the difference?dr_spyn said:http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-04/corbyn-spitting-at-journalists-inexcusable/
via spokesman not the man himself?0 -
The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.
Can't imagine Wilson, Attlee, Blair, Callaghan looking on spitting at journalists as party of their Party's moral crusade.0 -
Peston to do a Politics Show on ITV.
http://order-order.com/2015/10/04/robert-peston-to-join-itv-and-rival-andrew-marr/#:hNulVeTCtSDU_Q0 -
In 2010, the final poll which came from Mori had it Tory 36%, Labour 29%. In 2005 the final poll came from Mori again and had it Labour 38%, Tory 33%. In 2001 the final poll came from Gallup and had it Labour 47%, Tory 30%. In 1997 the last poll came from ICM and had it Labour 43%, Tory 33%.
In 1992 the final poll came from NOP and had it Labour 42%, Tory 39%.
In 1987 the last poll from Marplan had it Tory 42%, Labour 35%. In 1983 the final poll came from Mori and had it Tory 47%, Labour 26%. In 1979 the last poll had it Tory 49%, Labour 38.5%. In October 1974 the last poll had it Labour 43%, Tory 34.6%.
So every one of the final polls from October 1974 to 2010 apart from 1992 predicted the correct winner, even if the margin was not always perfect. Even in 1992 Gallup had it Tory 38.5%, Labour 38% in its final poll.
More of the final polls in 2015 had the Tories ahead than Labour, it was just most predicted a hung parliament
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
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Was a moral crusade, although I doubt that any actual crusader would have welcomed any of them.dr_spyn said:The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.
Can't imagine Wilson, Attlee, Blair, Callaghan looking on spitting at journalists as party of their Party's moral crusade.
Is a complete lie.
Perhaps though it's nothing.
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Plenty of leftwingers did at Tory conferences in the eighties and early nineties and under Heath even if the leaders themselves would notdr_spyn said:The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.
Can't imagine Wilson, Attlee, Blair, Callaghan looking on spitting at journalists as party of their Party's moral crusade.0 -
Nowadays , the designer protesters prefer quality !Plato_Says said:City Wag
Apparently Waitrose in central Manchester ran out of eggs. Couldn’t make it up #No2Austerity #CPC150 -
Are Corbynites allowed to throw eggs from battery hens at Tories?0
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Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.0 -
BBC journalism simply appalling - LEAD story on BBC Sport website is Rodgers sacking - in main article it says Liverpool came 2nd in the PL in 2014/15 (ie last season) - when they actually came 2nd in 2013/14.
They've got the last 3 seasons all shifted forward a season so all wrong.
They employ 8,000 journalists.
Forget bias and all that - it is simple basic competence - if they can't get that right then the default assumption has to be that literally anything they write may be wrong.0 -
BBC Sport @BBCSport 4h4 hours ago
England's women have out-performed the men in the last rugby, football & cricket World Cups
Road cycling can be added to that to since Lizzie's triumph last weekend.0 -
Except, per last week's YouGov, the public considers the current Conservatives as right-wing as in IDS's tenure.Plato_Says said:Lol
"I read that we are inhabiting the common ground," @Anna_Soubry - "actually we inhabit the sensible centre ground where elections are won"0 -
Opinion polls are correct nineteen times out of twenty, which apparently means eight times out of twenty. But this Schroedinger's number is not unique to polling. In finance, we test for once-in-a-thousand year catastrophic market events, which seem to occur every eighty years.0
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Twitter
Phillip Blond @Phillip_Blond 15m15 minutes ago
I am hearing rumours of a high profile resignation from Labour tomorrow0 -
Good evening, everyone.
I wonder what the impact of the marching persons will be on polling (well, marching persons and their approach to people who have a different view). Heard one woman, as part of a news vox pop, saying she was marching to prove we're still a democracy, despite what the baby-eating Tories think.
Enjoyed the People's Assembly placards too. About time we had that sort of thing. If only we had some sort of structure where the people could elect representatives...0 -
Yet Corbyn's Labour was even more leftwing, Cameron was on +53%, Corbyn -80%, so Corbyn was 27% further away from the centre than Cameron. Under Blair he was considered dead centre, even a fraction to the right, it is Labour's move so far left which has helped produce the present Tory lead. Anyway, earlier polls had Cameron more centrist than Howard, and he is still nearer the centre than FarageDanny565 said:
Except, per last week's YouGov, the public considers the current Conservatives as right-wing as in IDS's tenure.Plato_Says said:Lol
"I read that we are inhabiting the common ground," @Anna_Soubry - "actually we inhabit the sensible centre ground where elections are won"0 -
hm.. "high profile"... experience says probably not.fitalass said:Twitter
Phillip Blond @Phillip_Blond 15m15 minutes ago
I am hearing rumours of a high profile resignation from Labour tomorrow0 -
Hmm.
Philip Blond
I am hearing rumours of a high profile resignation from Labour tomorrow0 -
I'm sure that labour will ban that. 'Free', oh dear no.surbiton said:
They were free range. .antifrank said:Are Corbynites allowed to throw eggs from battery hens at Tories?
We need to wait for conference though.
In a hundred years time of course the issue will be about whether the 'free' in eggs is equivalent to the 'free ' in 'free market' and whether clause 48 of the Corbyn manifesto applies. Mind you Bob and his mate will probably just go to the pub and flip a coin, or decide to agree. And thus, for the first time in that hundred years Labour will once again lurch back onto something resembling the democratic path.
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Eh, call me when it's a defection from Labour to the Tories.fitalass said:Twitter
Phillip Blond @Phillip_Blond 15m15 minutes ago
I am hearing rumours of a high profile resignation from Labour tomorrow0 -
Someone defecting to the Tories, I wonder?fitalass said:Twitter
Phillip Blond @Phillip_Blond 15m15 minutes ago
I am hearing rumours of a high profile resignation from Labour tomorrow
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Nice story, though donations to homeless shelters, hostels and the Salvation Army are probably more effective longer termSeanT said:
Nicely put. Except...Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.
A few years ago I found myself in Glasgow, feeling particularly flush after a Tom Knox deal. As I walked around the town, on one of those cold gloomy December dusks which only Glasgow can conjure, I saw a beggar. He was mired in misery. An old drunk. With a few pennies in his upturned cap.
I thought, fuck it, I can make his night a tiny bit better, and I can afford it, so I dropped twenty quid in his cap, without him noticing. I then watched him from the other side of the street as he stirred from his ennui, and looked in the box, and found the twenty quid note. He literally did a dance for joy. A little jig. He probably got nicely drunk that night, on some decent booze for once.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?-1 -
Do you believe Denmark has been ruled mainly by left-wing regimes since 1924 (compared to, say, the UK Conservative Party)?Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.0 -
The timing during conference is fairly interesting, especially if it is not to the Conservatives.LucyJones said:
Someone defecting to the Tories, I wonder?fitalass said:Twitter
Phillip Blond @Phillip_Blond 15m15 minutes ago
I am hearing rumours of a high profile resignation from Labour tomorrow0 -
The fact that such rumours are automatically given serious credence tells its own story.0
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Jess Brammer
Still a pretty big crowd shouting "SCUM" at any delegates (or event organisers, or journalists) going into Tory Conference0 -
In Defence Of The Pollsters
In the final three weeks before the election, I started making a note of the difference between each new poll from a firm and their previous one... admittedly I started doing it when the Tories dropped/UKIP rose in an ICM!
I called it 'SPUD' (Sam's Polling Ups & Downs)
In any case, Tories on here tried to pick it apart, because it showed them doing badly in the first week. @PhillipThompson almost drove me to drink with his constant questioning. As I said above, I did start doing it to shut up the endless pathetic boasting after every good poll. But as it turned out, the polls did indeed swing back to the Tories - back to the original high point of that ICM that showed them on 39% (was it 39?)
I emailed a few PBers to say that it showed a swing to the Tories and, more importantly, a big swing away from Labour in the final fortnight... it also showed a swing to UKIP, which transpired in the votes but alas for my pocket, not the seats.
My advice was to back whoever of UKIP and Conservatives were the main challenger to Labour in close seats, and a Tory minority. To be honest I should have advised a Tory majority as well, but it just seemed too fantastic given the confidence everyone had in their NOM bets (that I wasn't on)
If I had one regret on my GE betting it was that I wasn't brave or open minded enough to back a Tory Majority (I did but for about a fiver and not because of my own research, just mucking about on Betfair bored). The silly Farage -6 bets in South Thanet were just bravado, and the UKIP seats bets I would have again if I knew they'd get 12.6% of the vote
Saying all that, I had been skint for 18 months, and didn't have any money to back it with anyway!
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I don't think I'd have stopped you, but I'm a very non-confrontational person in person. I would have silently disapproved. I hate homelessness - I hate its insoluble nature. I hate that it makes me callous and hardened and probably miss two dozen other situations during a day where I can and should do something generous and helpful, but there we go.SeanT said:
Nicely put. Except...Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.
A few years ago I found myself in Glasgow, feeling particularly flush after a Tom Knox deal. As I walked around the town, on one of those cold gloomy December dusks which only Glasgow can conjure, I saw a beggar. He was mired in misery. An old drunk. With a few pennies in his upturned cap.
I thought, fuck it, I can make his night a tiny bit better, and I can afford it, so I dropped twenty quid in his cap, without him noticing. I then watched him from the other side of the street as he stirred from his ennui, and looked in the box, and found the twenty quid note. He literally did a dance for joy. A little jig. He probably got nicely drunk that night, on some decent booze for once.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?0 -
What on earth are you saying? It's wildly unlikely that any opinion poll is correct. Schroedinger has nothing to do with any of this. You don't really work in finance do you?EPG said:Opinion polls are correct nineteen times out of twenty, which apparently means eight times out of twenty. But this Schroedinger's number is not unique to polling. In finance, we test for once-in-a-thousand year catastrophic market events, which seem to occur every eighty years.
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Can't find the page, but I think it was (possibly) Angus having a go at his father-in-law (or vice-versa) and making sarky comments about tampon adverts....SeanT said:0 -
Thanks Sean, it was couple of bottles of Rioja Reserva actually.SeanT said:
Nicely put. Except...Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.
A few years ago I found myself in Glasgow, feeling particularly flush after a Tom Knox deal. As I walked around the town, on one of those cold gloomy December dusks which only Glasgow can conjure, I saw a beggar. He was mired in misery. An old drunk. With a few pennies in his upturned cap.
I thought, fuck it, I can make his night a tiny bit better, and I can afford it, so I dropped twenty quid in his cap, without him noticing. I then watched him from the other side of the street as he stirred from his ennui, and looked in the box, and found the twenty quid note. He literally did a dance for joy. A little jig. He probably got nicely drunk that night, on some decent booze for once.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?0 -
Or Buckfast as it is more commonly known...Theuniondivvie said:Thanks Sean, it was couple of bottles of Rioja Reserva actually.
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I know, which was why I added 'longer term.' That night I expect he had the best night he had had for a good while. However, the best solution for the homeless is firstly to ensure they get access to soup kitchens and a hot meal and in the longer term it is to get them into hostels and then permanent accomodation and then into workSeanT said:
I WANTED him to get drunk on good gin. It probably speeded his demise but he had about 3 years left in him anyway. With my £20, the Sally Army would have spent £9 on administration, £4 on prayers, £5 on blankets and £2 on giving him some soup. Meh.HYUFD said:
Nice story, though donations to homeless shelters, hostels and the Salvation Army are probably more effective longer termSeanT said:
Nicely put. Except...Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.
A few years ago I found myself in Glasgow, feeling particularly flush after a Tom Knox deal. As I walked around the town, on one of those cold gloomy December dusks which only Glasgow can conjure, I saw a beggar. He was mired in misery. An old drunk. With a few pennies in his upturned cap.
I thought, fuck it, I can make his night a tiny bit better, and I can afford it, so I dropped twenty quid in his cap, without him noticing. I then watched him from the other side of the street as he stirred from his ennui, and looked in the box, and found the twenty quid note. He literally did a dance for joy. A little jig. He probably got nicely drunk that night, on some decent booze for once.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?0 -
Denmark has a centre right PM at the momentEPG said:
Do you believe Denmark has been ruled mainly by left-wing regimes since 1924 (compared to, say, the UK Conservative Party)?Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.0 -
Quite amusing Craig Mackinlay is now criticising those on the extreme left when at the General Election he was more than happy to be photographed holding their literature in an attempt to discredit UKIP.
https://twitter.com/cmackinlay/status/6507317976350351360 -
A few years back I was in SF and full of bonhomie - I came across a miserable looking middle aged guy begging who very politely asked for some change.
I gave him a hard look up and down, decided he was worth it and told him I wouldn't give him money - but we'd go for a McDonalds instead - and he could order whatever he wanted. I've never seen someone so WTF?? He chatted away and left stuffed/doggy bags for later.
Did I feel the warm glow of a Random Act of Kindness - sure, but I hoped he got more from it by simply being noticed/talked with.SeanT said:
I WANTED him to get drunk on good gin. It probably speeded his demise but he had about 3 years left in him anyway. With my £20, the Sally Army would have spent £9 on administration, £4 on prayers, £5 on blankets and £2 on giving him some soup. Meh.HYUFD said:
Nice story, though donations to homeless shelters, hostels and the Salvation Army are probably more effective longer termSeanT said:
Nicely put. Except...Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.
A few years ago I found myself in Glasgow, feeling particularly flush after a Tom Knox deal. As I walked around the town, on one of those cold gloomy December dusks which only Glasgow can conjure, I saw a beggar. He was mired in misery. An old drunk. With a few pennies in his upturned cap.
I thought, fuck it, I can make his night a tiny bit better, and I can afford it, so I dropped twenty quid in his cap, without him noticing. I then watched him from the other side of the street as he stirred from his ennui, and looked in the box, and found the twenty quid note. He literally did a dance for joy. A little jig. He probably got nicely drunk that night, on some decent booze for once.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?0 -
The Sally Army has had some hardline views on homosexuality that may cause some people to rethink their donations if they knew....HYUFD said:
Nice story, though donations to homeless shelters, hostels and the Salvation Army are probably more effective longer termSeanT said:
Nicely put. Except...Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing .
A few years ago I found myself in Glasgow, feeling particularly flush after a Tom Knox deal. As I walked around the town, on one of those cold gloomy December dusks which only Glasgow can conjure, I saw a beggar. He was mired in misery. An old drunk. With a few pennies in his upturned cap.
I thought, fuck it, I can make his night a tiny bit better, and I can afford it, so I dropped twenty quid in his cap, without him noticing. I then watched him from the other side of the street as he stirred from his ennui, and looked in the box, and found the twenty quid note. He literally did a dance for joy. A little jig. He probably got nicely drunk that night, on some decent booze for once.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zinnia-jones/the-salvation-armys-histo_b_4422938.html
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The 'Donate Locate' app is good to cater for that - https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/donatelocate/id969025584?mt=8SeanT said:
Sure. But my point is sometimes you need the immediate emotional reaction to make charity feel worthwhile, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. It needs to be harnessed (as all charities know). Also sometimes drunks are just drunks and want to get drunk, and that's that. They are happy to die younger, they just want to be inebriated en route. And fair enough.HYUFD said:
I know, which was why I added 'longer term.' That night I expect he had the best night he had had for a good while. However, the best solution for the homeless is firstly to ensure they get access to soup kitchens and a hot meal and in the longer term it is to get them into hostels and then permanent accomodation and then into workSeanT said:
I WANTED him to get drunk on good gin. It probably speeded his demise but he had about 3 years left in him anyway. With my £20, the Sally Army would have spent £9 on administration, £4 on prayers, £5 on blankets and £2 on giving him some soup. Meh.HYUFD said:
Nice story, though donations to homeless shelters, hostels and the Salvation Army are probably more effective longer termSeanT said:Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?
I don't think they're in Edinburgh or on Android yet, so not for me, but there you go!0 -
New Thread New Thread
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The policies he is overseeing would be regarded as unacceptable Communism if presented before the British people. They would attract less support than Jeremy Corbyn.HYUFD said:
Denmark has a centre right PM at the momentEPG said:
Do you believe Denmark has been ruled mainly by left-wing regimes since 1924 (compared to, say, the UK Conservative Party)?Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.0 -
Plato_Says said:
I WANTED him to get drunk on good gin. It probably speeded his demise but he had about 3 years left in him anyway. With my £20, the Sally Army would have spent £9 on administration, £4 on prayers, £5 on blankets and £2 on giving him some soup. Meh.
Great way of doing it. You got a nice response too - you might of course have received an earful of abuse.0 -
BTW, and belatedly: thanks to Antifrank for this interesting article, which probably hasn't had enough comment.0
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I know only a couple of you have read it, but wish to categorically state Roger the Goat in Journey to Altmortis is in no way inspired by or based on our very own fellow of the same name.
Mr. T, do you often base characters, large or small, on people you know or knew?
I know lots of people go on about doing that, but it's something I try to avoid.0 -
Depends whether you think helping people in trouble is more or less important than holding socially correct opinions.MarqueeMark said:
The Sally Army has had some hardline views on homosexuality that may cause some people to rethink their donations if they knew....HYUFD said:
Nice story, though donations to homeless shelters, hostels and the Salvation Army are probably more effective longer termSeanT said:
Nicely put. Except...Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing .
A few years ago I found myself in Glasgow, feeling particularly flush after a Tom Knox deal. As I walked around the town, on one of those cold gloomy December dusks which only Glasgow can conjure, I saw a beggar. He was mired in misery. An old drunk. With a few pennies in his upturned cap.
I thought, fuck it, I can make his night a tiny bit better, and I can afford it, so I dropped twenty quid in his cap, without him noticing. I then watched him from the other side of the street as he stirred from his ennui, and looked in the box, and found the twenty quid note. He literally did a dance for joy. A little jig. He probably got nicely drunk that night, on some decent booze for once.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zinnia-jones/the-salvation-armys-histo_b_4422938.html0 -
Used to be a foreign guy who begged in an underpass beneath Park Lane. Always chatty, never pushy, always grateful for whatever you gave him. We often used to talk, sometimes he was the worse for booze, but not always. He told me of a place he used to go and get food from the bins. He liked their food.Plato_Says said:A few years back I was in SF and full of bonhomie - I came across a miserable looking middle aged guy begging who very politely asked for some change.
I gave him a hard look up and down, decided he was worth it and told him I wouldn't give him money - but we'd go for a McDonalds instead - and he could order whatever he wanted. I've never seen someone so WTF?? He chatted away and left stuffed/doggy bags for later.
Did I feel the warm glow of a Random Act of Kindness - sure, but I hoped he got more from it by simply being noticed/talked with.SeanT said:
I WANTED him to get drunk on good gin. It probably speeded his demise but he had about 3 years left in him anyway. With my £20, the Sally Army would have spent £9 on administration, £4 on prayers, £5 on blankets and £2 on giving him some soup. Meh.HYUFD said:
Nice story, though donations to homeless shelters, hostels and the Salvation Army are probably more effective longer termSeanT said:
Nicely put. Except...Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (smpolitics.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?
So one night, I took him to that restaurant for a meal. He was just so touched. Told me his life story. He got stuck in London with a lost passport and trapped in an admin hell. Anyway, I spurred him on to have one more try to sort it out. Wrote him a letter to help him.
And then one day, after months of having the same pitch, he was gone. I hope he got home.
And a week later, I got a totally unexpected tax rebate. Karma?0 -
Well that is true, drunks have been here for generations and will be for generations to comeSeanT said:
Sure. But my point is sometimes you need the immediate emotional reaction to make charity feel worthwhile, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. It needs to be harnessed (as all charities know). Also sometimes drunks are just drunks and want to get drunk, and that's that. They are happy to die younger, they just want to be inebriated en route. And fair enough.HYUFD said:
I know, which was why I added 'longer term.' That night I expect he had the best night he had had for a good while. However, the best solution for the homeless is firstly to ensure they get access to soup kitchens and a hot meal and in the longer term it is to get them into hostels and then permanent accomodation and then into workSeanT said:
I WANTED him to get drunk on good gin. It probably speeded his demise but he had about 3 years left in him anyway. With my £20, the Sally Army would have spent £9 on administration, £4 on prayers, £5 on blankets and £2 on giving him some soup. Meh.HYUFD said:
Nice story, though donations to homeless shelters, hostels and the Salvation Army are probably more effective longer termSeanT said:Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?0 -
If you are homeless you are not going to care too much about the Sally Army's views on homosexuality if they are offering you a drink and a hot mealMarqueeMark said:
The Sally Army has had some hardline views on homosexuality that may cause some people to rethink their donations if they knew....HYUFD said:
Nice story, though donations to homeless shelters, hostels and the Salvation Army are probably more effective longer termSeanT said:
Nicely put. Except...Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing .
A few years ago I found myself in Glasgow, feeling particularly flush after a Tom Knox deal. As I walked around the town, on one of those cold gloomy December dusks which only Glasgow can conjure, I saw a beggar. He was mired in misery. An old drunk. With a few pennies in his upturned cap.
I thought, fuck it, I can make his night a tiny bit better, and I can afford it, so I dropped twenty quid in his cap, without him noticing. I then watched him from the other side of the street as he stirred from his ennui, and looked in the box, and found the twenty quid note. He literally did a dance for joy. A little jig. He probably got nicely drunk that night, on some decent booze for once.
Did I make his life worse? I don't think so. Did I feel better about myself in a very shallow way? Yes. Would you have stopped me?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zinnia-jones/the-salvation-armys-histo_b_4422938.html0 -
He has cut spending, welfare and even foreign aid (left untouched by Cameron) so hardly CorbynismEPG said:
The policies he is overseeing would be regarded as unacceptable Communism if presented before the British people. They would attract less support than Jeremy Corbyn.HYUFD said:
Denmark has a centre right PM at the momentEPG said:
Do you believe Denmark has been ruled mainly by left-wing regimes since 1924 (compared to, say, the UK Conservative Party)?Luckyguy1983 said:Left wing politics is an emotion - a manipulation upon the emotions. Conservative (small c) politics is a theory. Left wing regimes have brought poverty and misery at best, and mass death at worst, in scores of cases across history, but these are facts, and can't be brought to bear against a visceral feeling. That's why the two are locked in eternal conflict. There can never really be a winner whilst some people use their feelings to think, and others use their brains.
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.0 -
But spitting at delegates is fine?dr_spyn said:0 -
Antifrank, I think that there is another factor in the inaccuracy of polls when the election is far off. People are not truly thinking about the issue, and hence they are more likely to give the answer that they think is the 'right answer' (i.e. closer to societal consensus) rather than a considered personal response, and least likely to give the 'selfish' answer that is most in line with their actual interests and probably more in line how they would vote if the real election were happening.
Whether this benefits the Left or the Right probably varies with where public opinion is. But I can see that this would result in a shy Tory vote quite often.0
