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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank says what should we think about polling now?
Most people were taken by surprise by the general election result in May. Why? Well, most people’s expectations were set by the abundance of opinion polls which by election day had settled on a consensus showing the two main parties neck and neck at around 33% or 34%. The actual result, with the Conservatives on 37% and Labour on 31%, came as a bombshell. (In fairness to the pollsters, the…
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Point 8 is the killer - we all know they are 'not predictions' but fact is everyone treats them as though they are, and people lose their political positions due to them sometimes, ask the Australians.
Friends, our party is the best party because our party has the best values. Uniquely, our party believes in hope, opportunity, decency and prosperity. Unlike NAME OF RIVAL PARTY, who believe in the opposite of all those things. Because – and let’s be frank here – people from NAME OF RIVAL PARTY are rubbish, and you, my audience, are inherently superior to them!
[Pause for standing ovation.]
We are a party that believes in young people. But also in old people. And also in people whose age falls somewhere in between. Because let’s not forget: those people used to be young people. And one day, they will be old people. Unless they die in the meantime. But even if they do, our party will still believe in them.
And that’s why I say to you this. Something something something, our NHS!
[Pause for standing ovation.]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11909127/How-to-write-the-perfect-speech-for-a-political-party-conference.html
via spokesman not the man himself?
Contrary everyone anticipated them because of the Liberal surge in both of them.
Apart from that, the article is good advice.
Floater said:
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Southam has made his feelings about the current loony Labour party and their hangers on very clear.
Indeed he has and many times.
I was not referring to SO though that's the problem of posting you cannot get all in the post. It's the seniors in the party I was referring too.
Apparently Waitrose in central Manchester ran out of eggs. Couldn’t make it up #No2Austerity #CPC15
"I read that we are inhabiting the common ground," @Anna_Soubry - "actually we inhabit the sensible centre ground where elections are won"
He has about 12 hours.
He will not say more though, he'll never be PM, and he'll go down in history as the worst of people. Inspired by others, backed by scoundrels, and a man that would wish to put his own stupidity before the interests of the country.
However he still has those 12 hours.
NHSLabour Party!Can't imagine Wilson, Attlee, Blair, Callaghan looking on spitting at journalists as party of their Party's moral crusade.
http://order-order.com/2015/10/04/robert-peston-to-join-itv-and-rival-andrew-marr/#:hNulVeTCtSDU_Q
In 1992 the final poll came from NOP and had it Labour 42%, Tory 39%.
In 1987 the last poll from Marplan had it Tory 42%, Labour 35%. In 1983 the final poll came from Mori and had it Tory 47%, Labour 26%. In 1979 the last poll had it Tory 49%, Labour 38.5%. In October 1974 the last poll had it Labour 43%, Tory 34.6%.
So every one of the final polls from October 1974 to 2010 apart from 1992 predicted the correct winner, even if the margin was not always perfect. Even in 1992 Gallup had it Tory 38.5%, Labour 38% in its final poll.
More of the final polls in 2015 had the Tories ahead than Labour, it was just most predicted a hung parliament
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Is a complete lie.
Perhaps though it's nothing.
The spread market was badly wrong !
It's like walking past a beggar. When I walk past a beggar, I'm calculating that my change cannot help their situation, in fact it's much more likely it will actively harm them. Others would say this was callous, and give the beggar the change, because 'that's the kind of person I am' - they're indulging their own feelings without any long term thought process about the welfare of the person. That's left wing politics.
They've got the last 3 seasons all shifted forward a season so all wrong.
They employ 8,000 journalists.
Forget bias and all that - it is simple basic competence - if they can't get that right then the default assumption has to be that literally anything they write may be wrong.
England's women have out-performed the men in the last rugby, football & cricket World Cups
Road cycling can be added to that to since Lizzie's triumph last weekend.
Phillip Blond @Phillip_Blond 15m15 minutes ago
I am hearing rumours of a high profile resignation from Labour tomorrow
I wonder what the impact of the marching persons will be on polling (well, marching persons and their approach to people who have a different view). Heard one woman, as part of a news vox pop, saying she was marching to prove we're still a democracy, despite what the baby-eating Tories think.
Enjoyed the People's Assembly placards too. About time we had that sort of thing. If only we had some sort of structure where the people could elect representatives...
Philip Blond
I am hearing rumours of a high profile resignation from Labour tomorrow
We need to wait for conference though.
In a hundred years time of course the issue will be about whether the 'free' in eggs is equivalent to the 'free ' in 'free market' and whether clause 48 of the Corbyn manifesto applies. Mind you Bob and his mate will probably just go to the pub and flip a coin, or decide to agree. And thus, for the first time in that hundred years Labour will once again lurch back onto something resembling the democratic path.
Still a pretty big crowd shouting "SCUM" at any delegates (or event organisers, or journalists) going into Tory Conference
In Defence Of The Pollsters
In the final three weeks before the election, I started making a note of the difference between each new poll from a firm and their previous one... admittedly I started doing it when the Tories dropped/UKIP rose in an ICM!
I called it 'SPUD' (Sam's Polling Ups & Downs)
In any case, Tories on here tried to pick it apart, because it showed them doing badly in the first week. @PhillipThompson almost drove me to drink with his constant questioning. As I said above, I did start doing it to shut up the endless pathetic boasting after every good poll. But as it turned out, the polls did indeed swing back to the Tories - back to the original high point of that ICM that showed them on 39% (was it 39?)
I emailed a few PBers to say that it showed a swing to the Tories and, more importantly, a big swing away from Labour in the final fortnight... it also showed a swing to UKIP, which transpired in the votes but alas for my pocket, not the seats.
My advice was to back whoever of UKIP and Conservatives were the main challenger to Labour in close seats, and a Tory minority. To be honest I should have advised a Tory majority as well, but it just seemed too fantastic given the confidence everyone had in their NOM bets (that I wasn't on)
If I had one regret on my GE betting it was that I wasn't brave or open minded enough to back a Tory Majority (I did but for about a fiver and not because of my own research, just mucking about on Betfair bored). The silly Farage -6 bets in South Thanet were just bravado, and the UKIP seats bets I would have again if I knew they'd get 12.6% of the vote
Saying all that, I had been skint for 18 months, and didn't have any money to back it with anyway!
https://twitter.com/cmackinlay/status/650731797635035136
I gave him a hard look up and down, decided he was worth it and told him I wouldn't give him money - but we'd go for a McDonalds instead - and he could order whatever he wanted. I've never seen someone so WTF?? He chatted away and left stuffed/doggy bags for later.
Did I feel the warm glow of a Random Act of Kindness - sure, but I hoped he got more from it by simply being noticed/talked with.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zinnia-jones/the-salvation-armys-histo_b_4422938.html
I don't think they're in Edinburgh or on Android yet, so not for me, but there you go!
New Thread New Thread
Great way of doing it. You got a nice response too - you might of course have received an earful of abuse.
Mr. T, do you often base characters, large or small, on people you know or knew?
I know lots of people go on about doing that, but it's something I try to avoid.
So one night, I took him to that restaurant for a meal. He was just so touched. Told me his life story. He got stuck in London with a lost passport and trapped in an admin hell. Anyway, I spurred him on to have one more try to sort it out. Wrote him a letter to help him.
And then one day, after months of having the same pitch, he was gone. I hope he got home.
And a week later, I got a totally unexpected tax rebate. Karma?
Whether this benefits the Left or the Right probably varies with where public opinion is. But I can see that this would result in a shy Tory vote quite often.