politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next Labour Leader: Let’s do the Time Warp Again
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next Labour Leader: Let’s do the Time Warp Again
Amongst the favourites in the betting for next Labour leader are non-runner Dan Jarvis (8/1), non-finisher Chuka Umunna (9/1), and non-MP David Miliband (a stand out 20/1 with Stan James, otherwise 10/1). All are broadly on the right of the party, though admittedly Jarvis is something of a blank canvas.
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1st runner up0
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If he gets deposed by the MPs, what are the chances Corbyn stands again, as the only left-winger that gets to run because no others get nominated?0
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Have you learned nothing from all these articles about F1?Plato_Says said:1st runner up
It is first loser.0 -
Thanks Mr Tissue. I'd add in another factor - I suspect Corbyn will stand down once the various levers of power are all pulled in the Hard Left's direction. And then a younger cardinal can take over.
- He's got a small majority on the NEC - that needs embedding.
- Lining up unsympathetic MPs for deselection, under the cover of boundary changes, requires alternative candidates to be established in advance.
Do we have any knowledgeable PBers on Labour's internal processes here to advise?0 -
I was thinking of Miss World
DavidL said:
Have you learned nothing from all these articles about F1?Plato_Says said:1st runner up
It is first loser.0 -
The only plausible alternative to Corbyn pre 2020 is Hilary Benn, an experienced senior Shadow Cabinet Minister acceptable to the left through his father. Younger candidates would only enter post election defeat0
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FPT:
Perhaps - I do not knoww their records well enough to judge for sure. But as I don't care who the mayor of London is, and am fairly confident no one person could make a true mess of things, all I wish for is the most entertaining mayor. Zac and Sadiq are not filling me with confidence there.malcolmg said:
Hmmm both plonkers , just opposite spectrumskle4 said:
You've found no frivolity with Red Ken and Boorish Boris?malcolmg said:
kle4 , can you name onekle4 said:
Is he still planning on running himself? London has indeed had some exciting mayors to date.Scott_P said:@politicshome: George Galloway on London mayoral race: "Sadiq Khan is a very boring man and I’m not sure London wants a very boring mayor."
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And there used to be another.malcolmg said:
Liberals.
But they appear to be gone now. Didn't stand in a single by election yesterday.0 -
FPT
I really don't think this is a sledgehammer, or it certainly won't be in practice.JEO said:
It's such a left-wing Labour mentality you are displaying here. "We are struggling to address the root causes of the problem, so we will just legally compel the symptoms to disappear." When you haven't actually addressed the problem, a sledgehammer solution just causes other negative consequences elsewhere. If ethnic minority candidates tend to be less skilled than others, than just forcing more into important positions will just cause a deterioration in quality.NickPalmer said:
I think that underestimates the voters. People are worried about the number of immigrants and the impact on services. Some are also concerned about cultural aspects, others not. But there's pretty wide acceptance of the fact that minority ethnic groups are seriously under-represented in some areas, and that it's a bad thing if the police in particular *appear* not to want many of them. It's perfectly possible to think that we should have stricter limits on immigration without thinking that it's unimportant if our existing immigrants feel excluded.david_herdson said:
Nick, on the broader issue, do you not realise how bad it will look for Labour to have as their most prominent elected politician someone implementing laws based on racially disadvantaging the white population, when concern over immigration is at its highest ever recorded by Mori?
As JEO says, there are plenty of efforts one can make before moving to quotas (though some of those he suggests do constitute preferential treatment too), but they don't always work. We've had exactly this discussion about all-women's shortlists (and Cameron's A-list, an informal way of achieving the same thing). Nobody is exactly keen on them, but they transformed Parliament in a way that lots of projects to encourage women didn't.
it will be about
- having internships/work experience/open days which cater solely to or which are targetted at ethnic minorities
- fast track application processes or guaranteed interviews for ethnic minority candidates
- efforts to remove tests/criteria which, although they seem to have some relevancy to the job nevertheless seem to either deter or disproproprtionately rule out ethnic minority candidates
These aren't uncontroversial, but neither are they an earthquake. The only way you can conclude they will be an earthquake is to assume Khan wants the most extreme form of what he suggests, rather than either the middle ground or the most plausible route.0 -
FPT
TGOHF said:
» show previous quotes
Corbyn out next June should be favourite - after a triple whammy of bad elections nationally, Holyrood and London.
How desperate would it be if the Tories get more consolation list seats than Labour.0 -
Excellent piece for Mr Price, have been waiting a while to publish this one0
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Good article once again Tissue Price. One of the problems Labour has is that I am pretty keen on politics and I simply could not pick out either Clive Lewis or Lisa Nandy from a police line up. I would be amazed in a significant percentage of 1% of the population has ever heard of them.
Given the failures of the previous generation that is not necessarily a bad thing but if Labour are looking for a leader that can keep the 2020 result to bad and reduce the turmoil that Corbyn and McDonnell are going to leave in their wake that is not a good start.
The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.0 -
Come on, spin us a positive message from SLABs disastrous by election results last night/today.HYUFD said:The only plausible alternative to Corbyn pre 2020 is Hilary Benn, an experienced senior Shadow Cabinet Minister acceptable to the left through his father. Younger candidates would only enter post election defeat
Corybn is really helping them... to oblivion.
Tories looking good for second place at Holyrood.0 -
kle4, Same here kle4, neither look good but same goes for the current buffoon.kle4 said:FPT:
Perhaps - I do not knoww their records well enough to judge for sure. But as I don't care who the mayor of London is, and am fairly confident no one person could make a true mess of things, all I wish for is the most entertaining mayor. Zac and Sadiq are not filling me with confidence there.malcolmg said:
Hmmm both plonkers , just opposite spectrumskle4 said:
You've found no frivolity with Red Ken and Boorish Boris?malcolmg said:
kle4 , can you name onekle4 said:
Is he still planning on running himself? London has indeed had some exciting mayors to date.Scott_P said:@politicshome: George Galloway on London mayoral race: "Sadiq Khan is a very boring man and I’m not sure London wants a very boring mayor."
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Dair -Dair said:
Come on, spin us a positive message from SLABs disastrous by election results last night/today.HYUFD said:The only plausible alternative to Corbyn pre 2020 is Hilary Benn, an experienced senior Shadow Cabinet Minister acceptable to the left through his father. Younger candidates would only enter post election defeat
Corybn is really helping them... to oblivion.
Tories looking good for second place at Holyrood.
Do you think there is (still) a group of people who'd vote Labour at Westminster but not at Holyrood? i.e. if we were holding a GE next year instead of Holyrood, Labour's odds would be shorter?0 -
You could not make it up , the Dire Disastrous ToriesDair said:
Come on, spin us a positive message from SLABs disastrous by election results last night/today.HYUFD said:The only plausible alternative to Corbyn pre 2020 is Hilary Benn, an experienced senior Shadow Cabinet Minister acceptable to the left through his father. Younger candidates would only enter post election defeat
Corybn is really helping them... to oblivion.
Tories looking good for second place at Holyrood.0 -
Corbyn will win London and the Assembly and Metropolitan areas next year and may win the Mayor in Scotland yougov have Labour in the late twenties SNP mid forties which would be the same as 2011 better than May. Coming behind UKIP in a by election more likely to topple himmalcolmg said:FPT
TGOHF said:
» show previous quotes
Corbyn out next June should be favourite - after a triple whammy of bad elections nationally, Holyrood and London.
How desperate would it be if the Tories get more consolation list seats than Labour.0 -
Corbyn will be gone by Easter 2016, even before the mayoral elections in May.0
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But the career-minded MPs don't collectively get to decide. If just 35 MPs nominate Lewis or Nandy, then it's over to the "selectorate". So the party is utterly knackered.DavidL said:The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
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Personally, I am looking for a candidate who actually supports Heathrow expansion.kle4 said:FPT:
Perhaps - I do not knoww their records well enough to judge for sure. But as I don't care who the mayor of London is, and am fairly confident no one person could make a true mess of things, all I wish for is the most entertaining mayor. Zac and Sadiq are not filling me with confidence there.malcolmg said:
Hmmm both plonkers , just opposite spectrumskle4 said:
You've found no frivolity with Red Ken and Boorish Boris?malcolmg said:
kle4 , can you name onekle4 said:
Is he still planning on running himself? London has indeed had some exciting mayors to date.Scott_P said:@politicshome: George Galloway on London mayoral race: "Sadiq Khan is a very boring man and I’m not sure London wants a very boring mayor."
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Facts are chiels that winna dingHYUFD said:
Corbyn will win London and the Assembly and Metropolitan areas next year and may win the Mayor in Scotland yougov have Labour in the late twenties SNP mid forties which would be the same as 2011 better than May. Coming behind UKIP in a by election more likely to topple himmalcolmg said:FPT
TGOHF said:
» show previous quotes
Corbyn out next June should be favourite - after a triple whammy of bad elections nationally, Holyrood and London.
How desperate would it be if the Tories get more consolation list seats than Labour.
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FPT - Mr Kle4. You asked me
Out of interest, how would you class defeats where the final outcome of the war was a stalemate, minor or major?
Depends what the ultimate cost was.
Take the Iraq/Iran war, that was a return to the status quo ante bellum.
But the financial cost to Saddam and Iraqq was so vast they decided to invade Kuwait and that ultimately led to the toppling of the Bathist government and Saddam's execution.
So that really was ultimately a bad defeat for Saddam and Iraq, who now ultimately have to deal with the likes of ISIL.0 -
Haven't seen the results other than Glenrothes. We normally get a follow up thread.Dair said:
Come on, spin us a positive message from SLABs disastrous by election results last night/today.HYUFD said:The only plausible alternative to Corbyn pre 2020 is Hilary Benn, an experienced senior Shadow Cabinet Minister acceptable to the left through his father. Younger candidates would only enter post election defeat
Corybn is really helping them... to oblivion.
Tories looking good for second place at Holyrood.
Good spot about the Lib Dems not standing in a single ward.0 -
FPT:
I would have thought that marginally less likely that the Tories winning more than Labour overall. The SNP have made such deep inroads into Labour's constituency seats that Labour could be facing wipeout or something extremely close (as per May). By contrast, while the SNP are undoubtedly strong in Tory areas too, their weaker areas tend to coincide with the Tories' strongest ones, so if both parties ended on, say, 23 seats, it's quite possible that the Tories would outscore Labour by two or three to one or so - and hence Labour would win more list seats.malcolmg said:
How desperate would it be if the Tories get more consolation list seats than Labour.TGOHF said:
Corbyn out next June should be favourite - after a triple whammy of bad elections nationally, Holyrood and London.Dair said:
It's starting to look like Tory second party at Holyrood is a reasonable chance instead of an outside bet. Good news for anyone who put some money on them early.TGOHF said:Dair - looks like a Tory surge across the board there - Tiocfaidh Ár Lá !!
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On topic this week has convinced me it'll be Tom Watson.
If he can topple Blair he can topple Corbyn.0 -
I really doubt it. SLAB are as dead as the Tories and Liberals. One might show face as a second place but none show any ability to go beyond that. Westminster or Holyrood doesn't matter any more. It's all about when Independence is won.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Dair -Dair said:
Come on, spin us a positive message from SLABs disastrous by election results last night/today.HYUFD said:The only plausible alternative to Corbyn pre 2020 is Hilary Benn, an experienced senior Shadow Cabinet Minister acceptable to the left through his father. Younger candidates would only enter post election defeat
Corybn is really helping them... to oblivion.
Tories looking good for second place at Holyrood.
Do you think there is (still) a group of people who'd vote Labour at Westminster but not at Holyrood? i.e. if we were holding a GE next year instead of Holyrood, Labour's odds would be shorter?
Scotland is far more comparable to what happened in Ireland than Quebec from what I can see. There is effectively no opposition and none of them seem capable of putting together an offer the electorate are interested in which could rescue the union.
Either the SNP get independence or at some point a more hardline Independence party emerges and wipes them aside.0 -
Khan may well win the mayoral election, but if he does I think Labour will then lose the Tooting by-election. And that will be the moment that Corbyn's unelectability will be proven to all but his most vehement supporters.HYUFD said:
Corbyn will win London and the Assembly and Metropolitan areas next year and may win the Mayor in Scotland yougov have Labour in the late twenties SNP mid forties which would be the same as 2011 better than May. Coming behind UKIP in a by election more likely to topple himmalcolmg said:FPT
TGOHF said:
» show previous quotes
Corbyn out next June should be favourite - after a triple whammy of bad elections nationally, Holyrood and London.
How desperate would it be if the Tories get more consolation list seats than Labour.0 -
Top headline, by the way.0
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So your response to the brutal truth of electoral disaster is still "but in a subsample a couple of weeks ago, Labour were only 20pts behind".HYUFD said:
Corbyn will win London and the Assembly and Metropolitan areas next year and may win the Mayor in Scotland yougov have Labour in the late twenties SNP mid forties which would be the same as 2011 better than May. Coming behind UKIP in a by election more likely to topple himmalcolmg said:FPT
TGOHF said:
» show previous quotes
Corbyn out next June should be favourite - after a triple whammy of bad elections nationally, Holyrood and London.
How desperate would it be if the Tories get more consolation list seats than Labour.
Priceless.0 -
ZoooooooooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmDair said:Scotland is far more comparable to what happened in Ireland than Quebec from what I can see. There is effectively no opposition and none of them seem capable of putting together an offer the electorate are interested in which could rescue the union.
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Will see London is more pro Corbyn a by election in the Midlands or South more dangerousThomasNashe said:
Khan may well win the mayoral election, but if he does I think Labour will then lose the Tooting by-election. And that will be the moment that Corbyn's unelectability will be proven to all but his most vehement supporters.HYUFD said:
Corbyn will win London and the Assembly and Metropolitan areas next year and may win the Mayor in Scotland yougov have Labour in the late twenties SNP mid forties which would be the same as 2011 better than May. Coming behind UKIP in a by election more likely to topple himmalcolmg said:FPT
TGOHF said:
» show previous quotes
Corbyn out next June should be favourite - after a triple whammy of bad elections nationally, Holyrood and London.
How desperate would it be if the Tories get more consolation list seats than Labour.0 -
Nothing stopping the NEC dropping the threshold to 20 or even 10 MPs to get on the ballot.Tissue_Price said:
But the career-minded MPs don't collectively get to decide. If just 35 MPs nominate Lewis or Nandy, then it's over to the "selectorate". So the party is utterly knackered.DavidL said:The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
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Thanks! I thought it worked on a few levelsdavid_herdson said:Top headline, by the way.
The Labour Party should be aware that madness takes its toll.0 -
Discussing the possibility of nominating anyone else in those circumstances are what public toilets and the likes of Tom Watson are for. They will reason with them and it will be made crystal clear that the mistake of nominating an unelectable fool like Corbyn is not to be repeated.Tissue_Price said:
But the career-minded MPs don't collectively get to decide. If just 35 MPs nominate Lewis or Nandy, then it's over to the "selectorate". So the party is utterly knackered.DavidL said:The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
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Removing tests and criteria which have relevancy to the job is definitely reducing quality, making it a very negative position. If you want to address the situation properly, you need to understand why ethnic minorities are failing to meet those tests and getting more people up to the stated standard.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I really don't think this is a sledgehammer, or it certainly won't be in practice.
it will be about
- having internships/work experience/open days which cater solely to or which are targetted at ethnic minorities
- fast track application processes or guaranteed interviews for ethnic minority candidates
- efforts to remove tests/criteria which, although they seem to have some relevancy to the job nevertheless seem to either deter or disproproprtionately rule out ethnic minority candidates
These aren't uncontroversial, but neither are they an earthquake. The only way you can conclude they will be an earthquake is to assume Khan wants the most extreme form of what he suggests, rather than either the middle ground or the most plausible route.
As for work experience and open days, they should be focused on disadvantaged people from all backgrounds, including the white working class.0 -
LOL, nice turn of phrase! Well indeed; if they nominated McDonnell they'd be certifiable. But Lisa Nandy is hardly in the same category. Whether Clive Lewis is papabile remains to be seen.DavidL said:
Discussing the possibility of nominating anyone else in those circumstances are what public toilets and the likes of Tom Watson are for. They will reason with them and it will be made crystal clear that the mistake of nominating an unelectable fool like Corbyn is not to be repeated.Tissue_Price said:
But the career-minded MPs don't collectively get to decide. If just 35 MPs nominate Lewis or Nandy, then it's over to the "selectorate". So the party is utterly knackered.DavidL said:The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
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I couldn't squeeze this in to the piece, but y'all may recall that Clive Lewis took his victory in Norwich South somewhat for granted, saying that he would only lose if he were "caught with [his] pants down behind a goat with Ed Miliband at the other end".
Enjoy your lunch.0 -
I'll listen closely. Not for very much longer. I've got to ... go back to work.Tissue_Price said:
Thanks! I thought it worked on a few levelsdavid_herdson said:Top headline, by the way.
The Labour Party should be aware that madness takes its toll.0 -
"Removing tests and criteria which have relevancy to the job is definitely reducing quality, making it a very negative position."JEO said:
Removing tests and criteria which have relevancy to the job is definitely reducing quality, making it a very negative position. If you want to address the situation properly, you need to understand why ethnic minorities are failing to meet those tests and getting more people up to the stated standard.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I really don't think this is a sledgehammer, or it certainly won't be in practice.
it will be about
- having internships/work experience/open days which cater solely to or which are targetted at ethnic minorities
- fast track application processes or guaranteed interviews for ethnic minority candidates
- efforts to remove tests/criteria which, although they seem to have some relevancy to the job nevertheless seem to either deter or disproproprtionately rule out ethnic minority candidates
These aren't uncontroversial, but neither are they an earthquake. The only way you can conclude they will be an earthquake is to assume Khan wants the most extreme form of what he suggests, rather than either the middle ground or the most plausible route.
As for work experience and open days, they should be focused on disadvantaged people from all backgrounds, including the white working class.
It is a well observed effect in many positions that the children of those in the profession have better knowledge of the profession when they come to interview. They may well have had work experience with their parent, for example or been interested in it for a long time.
It's clearly relevant knowledge, but it's not a great predictor of how they'd get on in the role. At the same time it will have the effect of disadvantaging ethnic minority candidates who disproportionately don't have such role models.
As I say this is not uncontroversial. But is hardly an rubicon, in my view.0 -
@HTScotPol: "I say bring it on Michelle!" The most excrutiating .@MichelleThomson endorsement yet? #SNP http://t.co/xJdOgg4XTL0
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These could be heading to a city or town near you.JEO said:
With Bradford taking in thousands from the EU and in asylum numbers,what's one of the answers to Bradford's housing crisis -
RETURN OF THE PREFAB: Bradford pilot scheme could help tackle UK's housing crisis
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/13799124.RETURN_OF_THE_PREFAB__Bradford_pilot_scheme_could_help_tackle_UK_s_housing_crisis/
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Of the goat? Or...Tissue_Price said:I couldn't squeeze this in to the piece, but y'all may recall that Clive Lewis took his victory in Norwich South somewhat for granted, saying that he would only lose if he were "caught with [his] pants down behind a goat with Ed Miliband at the other end".
Enjoy your lunch.
Not lacking in confidence then and in fairness he did win very comfortably.0 -
Popular SNP leader enthusiastically endorses SNP candidate in election.Scott_P said:@HTScotPol: "I say bring it on Michelle!" The most excrutiating .@MichelleThomson endorsement yet? #SNP http://t.co/xJdOgg4XTL
It's not exactly earthshattering is it?
The story today about the, eh, delays in the fraud being reported to Crown Office by the Law Society by an employee who happens to have been very prominent in Yes Scotland is more interesting, at least for him. I don't see anything in this that is going to touch Nicola at the moment.0 -
On topic, I wouldn't rule out Ed Balls, who may be taking a time out at the moment but is, in consequence, not tainted by the Corbyn experience. The odds aren't particularly attractive as it does require a few hurdles to be jumped but a leadership change in 2018/19/20 might all work for him.
There is the question of Cooper but she had her chance this time and performed poorly until it was far too late.0 -
Indeed, but the quote is amusingDavidL said:Popular SNP leader enthusiastically endorses SNP candidate in election.
It's not exactly earthshattering is it?
The story today about the, eh, delays in the fraud being reported to Crown Office by the Law Society by an employee who happens to have been very prominent in Yes Scotland is more interesting, at least for him. I don't see anything in this that is going to touch Nicola at the moment.
Nicola then. "Michelle knows what she's doing, knows her area and knows about fairness, equality and prosperity"
Nicola now "I had no idea what Michelle was doing"0 -
You appear to be on my wavelength on this one Tissue Price:
FPT: Question is whether it will still remain worth the while of the PLP to go for an overthrow at some point in the future. OK, they remain for the time being the gatekeepers for leadership candidates, but the party is such that it would be far harder to resist a more acceptable face of leftism sans Corbyn's history next time out, even if the PLP learn from the last battle and try to do so. I still think they might go for it, even if the prize is to end up with a Nandy or a Clive Lewis or whoever else from the Corbyn coterie emerges as a front runner in the meantime.
FPPT: The margin of victory and the likely similar rules of any future contest are going to make it hard for the Labour centre and right. They can plot, but with a Shadow Cabinet likely to contain a number of younger anti-austerity voices, someone may well shine. Anyone who challenges from a more centrist position is likely to merely be a stalking horse.
A younger left-winger will likely not have the baggage of Corbyn, may not have obtained their left-wing ideas from the same set-text handbooks as Corbyn, may be more open to new thinking as part of the mix and may be a more attractive proposition to the electorate. As such, perhaps the Labour centre might be better spending their time developing new ideas to refresh their repertoire, ready for an ideological battle in the purest sense: a battle to get ideas on the table.
I seriously doubt Corbyn is Labour's messiah, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could be their John the Baptist.0 -
Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.0 -
I have a feeling that any by election seat that comes up will see Corbyn declare that it's up to the local party to select a local member, thereby shutting the door on a possible Balls/Miliband/Alexander come back.david_herdson said:On topic, I wouldn't rule out Ed Balls, who may be taking a time out at the moment but is, in consequence, not tainted by the Corbyn experience. The odds aren't particularly attractive as it does require a few hurdles to be jumped but a leadership change in 2018/19/20 might all work for him.
There is the question of Cooper but she had her chance this time and performed poorly until it was far too late.0 -
I quite liked Oliver CoppardRobert_Of_Sheffield said:Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.
He might be a contender.
He would have toppled Clegg were it not for the Tories4Clegg0 -
Reminds me of Ken Livingstone's prediction for the 1987 GE. Something along the lines of If Margaret Thatcher is caught in bed with camel the night before the election, Labour will win.Tissue_Price said:I couldn't squeeze this in to the piece, but y'all may recall that Clive Lewis took his victory in Norwich South somewhat for granted, saying that he would only lose if he were "caught with [his] pants down behind a goat with Ed Miliband at the other end".
Enjoy your lunch.0 -
I cannot see the new members letting MPs get away without nominating "one of their own".. They will deomonstarte, threaten to deslect ..Tissue_Price said:
But the career-minded MPs don't collectively get to decide. If just 35 MPs nominate Lewis or Nandy, then it's over to the "selectorate". So the party is utterly knackered.DavidL said:The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
(already threats on Labour Uncut to deselect Blairites)
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For fans of Scottish sub-samples showing Corbyn reviving Scottish Labour, the Blue meanies are in second place, 9% ahead of Labour
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQT_RxdWIAITzKe.jpg0 -
Why would anyone with Political ambitions want to be Mayor of the most boring Northern city ... Sheffield.. always a great place to leave..0
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@NCPoliticsUK: With 6 of the 7 Scottish local by-election results in, the average swing vs 2012 is just over 7% from Lab to SNP, equiv. to a ~15pt SNP lead0
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The wing of the party that Lewis comes from totals less than 35 MPs, so he'd struggle to get on the ballot paper as well. Nandy is a possibility, we saw with Cooper how much of an advantage simply being a woman is, if she actually has some policies..0
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NumbrCrunchrPolitics @NCPoliticsUK 1m1 minute ago
Just waiting for Linlithgow. Also, so far the @ScotTories have increased their vote share in every ward0 -
Yes, I noted those extremely wise words at the time. Depending on the extent of the hard left takeover, an SDP-style exodus might actually become a good option.Pro_Rata said:You appear to be on my wavelength on this one Tissue Price:
[snip]
I seriously doubt Corbyn is Labour's messiah, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could be their John the Baptist.0 -
Sean Bean?Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.0 -
@JohnRentoul: It's not the full "if drafted I shall not serve", but Lisa Nandy did say this, Times 26 Sep £ http://t.co/1rYIBk134X http://t.co/VxA1M7ypx10
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Oliver Coppard would be a sensible choice, increasing Labour's vote % by 19.7 in Hallam was pretty good. It's not really natural Labour territory.TheScreamingEagles said:
I quite liked Oliver CoppardRobert_Of_Sheffield said:Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.
He might be a contender.
He would have toppled Clegg were it not for the Tories4Clegg0 -
Sean Bean makes more in a week than the Mayor would get in a year...Why do people automatically assume actors are clever or even moderately intelligent....0
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Any coup would have to be a stitch up between the PLP and the Unions.0
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Looking at former leaders with a South Yorkshire constituency EICIMOSRobert_Of_Sheffield said:Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.
- gotta keep the acronym going somehow!
The northern mayors are going to be running a somewhat wider range of stuff than the Mayor of London, whose genuine powers are pretty much restricted to looking after a very large train set. As much as I also warmed to Coppard, who ran his campaign as a sort of Sheffield Zac Goldsmith, I think he would be better earning his safe seat and choosing someone with a bit more administrative experience for the mayoral candidate.0 -
It just happens to be untrue.DavidL said:Haven't seen the results other than Glenrothes. We normally get a follow up thread.
Good spot about the Lib Dems not standing in a single ward.
There were at least four Lib Dem candidates in yesterday´s elections. You don´t want to believe everything Mr Dair posts on here.0 -
Having spent a little bit of time at the Labour conference, Dan Jarvis was easily the most mentioned name in discussions about the next leader that I had with a few well-informed people.
Lisa Nandy also got a lot of mentions in the context of a person that Corbyn could endorse as a successor.
Owen Smith was also very well touted. Interestingly Damian McBride tipped him even before last May.0 -
'King George commands and I obey...' ? ('King George Osborne of course)SandyRentool said:
Sean Bean?Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.0 -
All your supposed 'solutions' presume failure already at the school and university level, or at least at some stage before the internship or interview. Shouldn't that be the focus of improvement, rather than creating disadvantage for other groups?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I really don't think this is a sledgehammer, or it certainly won't be in practice.
it will be about
- having internships/work experience/open days which cater solely to or which are targetted at ethnic minorities
- fast track application processes or guaranteed interviews for ethnic minority candidates
- efforts to remove tests/criteria which, although they seem to have some relevancy to the job nevertheless seem to either deter or disproproprtionately rule out ethnic minority candidates
These aren't uncontroversial, but neither are they an earthquake. The only way you can conclude they will be an earthquake is to assume Khan wants the most extreme form of what he suggests, rather than either the middle ground or the most plausible route.0 -
In this context, the excellent Downfall video spoof comes to mind - the woman outside the room saying to her friend "Don't cry Maria. Dan Jarvis will save us."shadsy said:Having spent a little bit of time at the Labour conference, Dan Jarvis was easily the most mentioned name in discussions about the next leader that I had with a few well-informed people.
Lisa Nandy also got a lot of mentions in the context of a person that Corbyn could endorse as a successor.
Owen Smith was also very well touted. Interestingly Damian McBride tipped him even before last May.
Owen Smith is interesting and I see you have him short!0 -
Sean Bean would never get nominated as he has form.richardDodd said:Sean Bean makes more in a week than the Mayor would get in a year...Why do people automatically assume actors are clever or even moderately intelligent....
People would always remember the whiff of the scandal of him and his " chosen men" putting down the mill rebellion when the Luddites refused to accept the industrial revolution.
:-)0 -
I've seen 'zoomer' and now 'zoom' on this site a lot recently. Finding it hard to identify what is meant, other than it is not a compliment. Can you elucidate? ThanksScott_P said:
ZoooooooooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmDair said:Scotland is far more comparable to what happened in Ireland than Quebec from what I can see. There is effectively no opposition and none of them seem capable of putting together an offer the electorate are interested in which could rescue the union.
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Moses....them bloody Luddites...nowt but a bloody nuisance...0
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He is just a very naughty boy.Pro_Rata said:You appear to be on my wavelength on this one Tissue Price:
FPT: Question is whether it will still remain worth the while of the PLP to go for an overthrow at some point in the future. OK, they remain for the time being the gatekeepers for leadership candidates, but the party is such that it would be far harder to resist a more acceptable face of leftism sans Corbyn's history next time out, even if the PLP learn from the last battle and try to do so. I still think they might go for it, even if the prize is to end up with a Nandy or a Clive Lewis or whoever else from the Corbyn coterie emerges as a front runner in the meantime.
FPPT: The margin of victory and the likely similar rules of any future contest are going to make it hard for the Labour centre and right. They can plot, but with a Shadow Cabinet likely to contain a number of younger anti-austerity voices, someone may well shine. Anyone who challenges from a more centrist position is likely to merely be a stalking horse.
A younger left-winger will likely not have the baggage of Corbyn, may not have obtained their left-wing ideas from the same set-text handbooks as Corbyn, may be more open to new thinking as part of the mix and may be a more attractive proposition to the electorate. As such, perhaps the Labour centre might be better spending their time developing new ideas to refresh their repertoire, ready for an ideological battle in the purest sense: a battle to get ideas on the table.
I seriously doubt Corbyn is Labour's messiah, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could be their John the Baptist.0 -
Prettier and less noisy?Plato_Says said:I was thinking of Miss World
DavidL said:
Have you learned nothing from all these articles about F1?Plato_Says said:1st runner up
It is first loser.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3st-Hai1y54Charles said:
Prettier and less noisy?Plato_Says said:I was thinking of Miss World
DavidL said:
Have you learned nothing from all these articles about F1?Plato_Says said:1st runner up
It is first loser.0 -
In the US, they are called Modular Homes, and they are not necessarily on the cheapo, small end of the scale:Tykejohnno said:
These could be heading to a city or town near you.JEO said:
With Bradford taking in thousands from the EU and in asylum numbers,what's one of the answers to Bradford's housing crisis -
RETURN OF THE PREFAB: Bradford pilot scheme could help tackle UK's housing crisis
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/13799124.RETURN_OF_THE_PREFAB__Bradford_pilot_scheme_could_help_tackle_UK_s_housing_crisis/
http://modularhomeowners.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/mansion.jpg0 -
I have Views on this subject, but they're probably best saved for a thread header of my own.
I agree that Chuka Umunna and David Miliband look like terrible value.0 -
Owen Smith is interesting and I see you have him short!
In these days of devolution and EVEL, I just don;t see Smith, or any other welsh MP, getting the top job.0 -
I gather it is an abusive term for Scottish nationalists, based on Scottish slang for a crazy person.MTimT said:
I've seen 'zoomer' and now 'zoom' on this site a lot recently. Finding it hard to identify what is meant, other than it is not a compliment. Can you elucidate? ThanksScott_P said:
ZoooooooooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmDair said:Scotland is far more comparable to what happened in Ireland than Quebec from what I can see. There is effectively no opposition and none of them seem capable of putting together an offer the electorate are interested in which could rescue the union.
0 -
When I was a youngster we thought bungalows were really luxurious.. Bathrooms, indoor toilet, water heaters and electricity... fantastic.. most of us lived in places that had none of those..0
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It's used by both sides to refer to their opponents.JEO said:
I gather it is an abusive term for Scottish nationalists, based on Scottish slang for a crazy person.MTimT said:
I've seen 'zoomer' and now 'zoom' on this site a lot recently. Finding it hard to identify what is meant, other than it is not a compliment. Can you elucidate? ThanksScott_P said:
ZoooooooooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmDair said:Scotland is far more comparable to what happened in Ireland than Quebec from what I can see. There is effectively no opposition and none of them seem capable of putting together an offer the electorate are interested in which could rescue the union.
Much like calling a football team The Scum which seems to apply to pretty much every team in the country.0 -
How the press would love that. 'Easter uprising'. Better still by 14 February.MikeK said:Corbyn will be gone by Easter 2016, even before the mayoral elections in May.
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The Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire doesn't have anyone suitable to nominate?Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.0 -
It's The People's Republic of South YorkshireCharles said:
The Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire doesn't have anyone suitable to nominate?Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.0 -
If thou hast Views, thou shouldst Publish them and alloweth Debate.antifrank said:I have Views on this subject, but they're probably best saved for a thread header of my own.
I agree that Chuka Umunna and David Miliband look like terrible value.
/C18th0 -
Sounding a little Monty Pythonesque there! In 1968, many of my schoolmates still only had outdoor toilets and tubs for baths. But I can't recall anyone without electricity.richardDodd said:When I was a youngster we thought bungalows were really luxurious.. Bathrooms, indoor toilet, water heaters and electricity... fantastic.. most of us lived in places that had none of those..
We had all those mod cons you mention for as far back as I can remember. But we did not have a fridge until the 1970s, or any kind of central heat (and then it was space heaters) until the late 70s. Not claiming poverty - that's just how it was in old houses. I remember there were government grants for installing insulation and space heaters to encourage conversion.0 -
It will be published by Sunday at the latest*Tissue_Price said:
If thou hast Views, thou shouldst Publish them and alloweth Debate to occur.antifrank said:I have Views on this subject, but they're probably best saved for a thread header of my own.
I agree that Chuka Umunna and David Miliband look like terrible value.
/C18th
*Barring events dear boy.0 -
Thanks. I checked the Urban Dictionary and there are a lot of different definitions. Looks like in this context it refers to people as spaced out and daft as those who have partaken of magic mushrooms.JEO said:
I gather it is an abusive term for Scottish nationalists, based on Scottish slang for a crazy person.MTimT said:
I've seen 'zoomer' and now 'zoom' on this site a lot recently. Finding it hard to identify what is meant, other than it is not a compliment. Can you elucidate? ThanksScott_P said:
ZoooooooooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmDair said:Scotland is far more comparable to what happened in Ireland than Quebec from what I can see. There is effectively no opposition and none of them seem capable of putting together an offer the electorate are interested in which could rescue the union.
0 -
"deomonstarte" really ought to be a proper word!madasafish said:
I cannot see the new members letting MPs get away without nominating "one of their own".. They will deomonstarte, threaten to deslect ..Tissue_Price said:
But the career-minded MPs don't collectively get to decide. If just 35 MPs nominate Lewis or Nandy, then it's over to the "selectorate". So the party is utterly knackered.DavidL said:The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
(already threats on Labour Uncut to deselect Blairites)
Proposed definition: The act of publicly invoking the blessing of God before embarking on a political campaign
0 -
Aren't you missing a "Democratic" there?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's The People's Republic of South YorkshireCharles said:
The Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire doesn't have anyone suitable to nominate?Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.0 -
On which note, this is sadly typical from the CoE these days:Charles said:
"deomonstarte" really ought to be a proper word!madasafish said:
I cannot see the new members letting MPs get away without nominating "one of their own".. They will deomonstarte, threaten to deslect ..Tissue_Price said:
But the career-minded MPs don't collectively get to decide. If just 35 MPs nominate Lewis or Nandy, then it's over to the "selectorate". So the party is utterly knackered.DavidL said:The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
(already threats on Labour Uncut to deselect Blairites)
Proposed definition: The act of publicly invoking the blessing of God before embarking on a political campaign
http://www.manchestercathedral.org/events/1105/peoples-assembly-at-the-manchester-cathedral-faith-united-against-austerity0 -
Just had the maximum allowed on PP (which was not a lot) on....
...
...
Stephen Kinnock.
Thought he was v sensible on QT. No idea any skeletons or his form in general.0 -
That young cardinal would have to be nominated by the PLP.Plato_Says said:Thanks Mr Tissue. I'd add in another factor - I suspect Corbyn will stand down once the various levers of power are all pulled in the Hard Left's direction. And then a younger cardinal can take over.
- He's got a small majority on the NEC - that needs embedding.
- Lining up unsympathetic MPs for deselection, under the cover of boundary changes, requires alternative candidates to be established in advance.
Do we have any knowledgeable PBers on Labour's internal processes here to advise?
If one acceptable to the Stop the War Coalition were to be nominated, then a single candidate would inevitably be nominated by the rest of the PLP. The battle would then be between each sides 3pounders. But in any event it would lead to a violet and viscious campaign. Civil war. Who wins would be largely irrelevant. As a commentator said, Labour are trapped in a burning building.
All the above assumes Corbyn could find 35 MPs to nominate his chosen successor. If not then he stays. Either way Labour are still trapped in their burning building.0 -
Very good. I thought of competing for a better definition, but I cede.Charles said:
"deomonstarte" really ought to be a proper word!madasafish said:
I cannot see the new members letting MPs get away without nominating "one of their own".. They will deomonstarte, threaten to deslect ..Tissue_Price said:
But the career-minded MPs don't collectively get to decide. If just 35 MPs nominate Lewis or Nandy, then it's over to the "selectorate". So the party is utterly knackered.DavidL said:The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
(already threats on Labour Uncut to deselect Blairites)
Proposed definition: The act of publicly invoking the blessing of God before embarking on a political campaign0 -
Sorry.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's The People's Republic of South YorkshireCharles said:
The Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire doesn't have anyone suitable to nominate?Robert_Of_Sheffield said:Who are the plausible Labour candidates for mayor of the new Sheffield regional authority?
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.
So Maoist rather than Trot?0 -
TBH, I tend to just ignore the Bishops and work with their offices, who tend to be far more practical and hard-headedTissue_Price said:
On which note, this is sadly typical from the CoE these days:Charles said:
"deomonstarte" really ought to be a proper word!madasafish said:
I cannot see the new members letting MPs get away without nominating "one of their own".. They will deomonstarte, threaten to deslect ..Tissue_Price said:
But the career-minded MPs don't collectively get to decide. If just 35 MPs nominate Lewis or Nandy, then it's over to the "selectorate". So the party is utterly knackered.DavidL said:The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
(already threats on Labour Uncut to deselect Blairites)
Proposed definition: The act of publicly invoking the blessing of God before embarking on a political campaign
http://www.manchestercathedral.org/events/1105/peoples-assembly-at-the-manchester-cathedral-faith-united-against-austerity0 -
I've mostly written a thread on that for Sunday.TOPPING said:Just had the maximum allowed on PP (which was not a lot) on....
...
...
Stephen Kinnock.
Thought he was v sensible on QT. No idea any skeletons or his form in general.0 -
Interesting, but from which direction would a more hard line independence party emerge? The SNP have, at present, all sectors sewn up in a straight jacket of control. If, however, the butterfly emerges from the left, while it will get strength from Glasgow and Fife, it will lose the North East, similarly, if from the right, it will win Edinburgh, the North East, the Borders and probably the South West, but lose Glasgow, Fife and most of the central belt.Dair said:
I really doubt it. SLAB are as dead as the Tories and Liberals. One might show face as a second place but none show any ability to go beyond that. Westminster or Holyrood doesn't matter any more. It's all about when Independence is won.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Dair -Dair said:
Come on, spin us a positive message from SLABs disastrous by election results last night/today.HYUFD said:The only plausible alternative to Corbyn pre 2020 is Hilary Benn, an experienced senior Shadow Cabinet Minister acceptable to the left through his father. Younger candidates would only enter post election defeat
Corybn is really helping them... to oblivion.
Tories looking good for second place at Holyrood.
Do you think there is (still) a group of people who'd vote Labour at Westminster but not at Holyrood? i.e. if we were holding a GE next year instead of Holyrood, Labour's odds would be shorter?
Scotland is far more comparable to what happened in Ireland than Quebec from what I can see. There is effectively no opposition and none of them seem capable of putting together an offer the electorate are interested in which could rescue the union.
Either the SNP get independence or at some point a more hardline Independence party emerges and wipes them aside.
Agreed, that at the moment, the SNP are riding high, but being on the back of a tiger puts you uncomfortably close to some rather sharp teeth. Thomson has been thrown to the press to distract them from Sturgeon's even more long term friend, Hyslop. And, I can't really help thinking that this is just the start.
Anyone any idea of where I can get some money on Salmond returning as FM, yet again, to save the SNP at Holyrood?0
