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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next Labour Leader: Let’s do the Time Warp Again
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next Labour Leader: Let’s do the Time Warp Again
Amongst the favourites in the betting for next Labour leader are non-runner Dan Jarvis (8/1), non-finisher Chuka Umunna (9/1), and non-MP David Miliband (a stand out 20/1 with Stan James, otherwise 10/1). All are broadly on the right of the party, though admittedly Jarvis is something of a blank canvas.
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http://www.migrationsverket.se/Om-Migrationsverket/Statistik/Asylsokande---de-storsta-landerna.html
It is first loser.
- He's got a small majority on the NEC - that needs embedding.
- Lining up unsympathetic MPs for deselection, under the cover of boundary changes, requires alternative candidates to be established in advance.
Do we have any knowledgeable PBers on Labour's internal processes here to advise?
Liberals.
But they appear to be gone now. Didn't stand in a single by election yesterday.
it will be about
- having internships/work experience/open days which cater solely to or which are targetted at ethnic minorities
- fast track application processes or guaranteed interviews for ethnic minority candidates
- efforts to remove tests/criteria which, although they seem to have some relevancy to the job nevertheless seem to either deter or disproproprtionately rule out ethnic minority candidates
These aren't uncontroversial, but neither are they an earthquake. The only way you can conclude they will be an earthquake is to assume Khan wants the most extreme form of what he suggests, rather than either the middle ground or the most plausible route.
TGOHF said:
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Corbyn out next June should be favourite - after a triple whammy of bad elections nationally, Holyrood and London.
How desperate would it be if the Tories get more consolation list seats than Labour.
Given the failures of the previous generation that is not necessarily a bad thing but if Labour are looking for a leader that can keep the 2020 result to bad and reduce the turmoil that Corbyn and McDonnell are going to leave in their wake that is not a good start.
The MPs will be in a panic, this is their careers on the line here, and will be looking for someone who can hold the fort even if they can't get anywhere near victory field. They will go for someone who is an experienced media performer with some name recognition who is not a kick in the teeth to the membership. So none of the failed candidates, someone in the shadow cabinet and with a bit of name recognition. Sounds like Mr Benn to me.
Corybn is really helping them... to oblivion.
Tories looking good for second place at Holyrood.
Do you think there is (still) a group of people who'd vote Labour at Westminster but not at Holyrood? i.e. if we were holding a GE next year instead of Holyrood, Labour's odds would be shorter?
Out of interest, how would you class defeats where the final outcome of the war was a stalemate, minor or major?
Depends what the ultimate cost was.
Take the Iraq/Iran war, that was a return to the status quo ante bellum.
But the financial cost to Saddam and Iraqq was so vast they decided to invade Kuwait and that ultimately led to the toppling of the Bathist government and Saddam's execution.
So that really was ultimately a bad defeat for Saddam and Iraq, who now ultimately have to deal with the likes of ISIL.
Good spot about the Lib Dems not standing in a single ward.
If he can topple Blair he can topple Corbyn.
Scotland is far more comparable to what happened in Ireland than Quebec from what I can see. There is effectively no opposition and none of them seem capable of putting together an offer the electorate are interested in which could rescue the union.
Either the SNP get independence or at some point a more hardline Independence party emerges and wipes them aside.
Priceless.
The Labour Party should be aware that madness takes its toll.
As for work experience and open days, they should be focused on disadvantaged people from all backgrounds, including the white working class.
Enjoy your lunch.
It is a well observed effect in many positions that the children of those in the profession have better knowledge of the profession when they come to interview. They may well have had work experience with their parent, for example or been interested in it for a long time.
It's clearly relevant knowledge, but it's not a great predictor of how they'd get on in the role. At the same time it will have the effect of disadvantaging ethnic minority candidates who disproportionately don't have such role models.
As I say this is not uncontroversial. But is hardly an rubicon, in my view.
With Bradford taking in thousands from the EU and in asylum numbers,what's one of the answers to Bradford's housing crisis -
RETURN OF THE PREFAB: Bradford pilot scheme could help tackle UK's housing crisis
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/13799124.RETURN_OF_THE_PREFAB__Bradford_pilot_scheme_could_help_tackle_UK_s_housing_crisis/
Not lacking in confidence then and in fairness he did win very comfortably.
It's not exactly earthshattering is it?
The story today about the, eh, delays in the fraud being reported to Crown Office by the Law Society by an employee who happens to have been very prominent in Yes Scotland is more interesting, at least for him. I don't see anything in this that is going to touch Nicola at the moment.
There is the question of Cooper but she had her chance this time and performed poorly until it was far too late.
Nicola then. "Michelle knows what she's doing, knows her area and knows about fairness, equality and prosperity"
Nicola now "I had no idea what Michelle was doing"
FPT: Question is whether it will still remain worth the while of the PLP to go for an overthrow at some point in the future. OK, they remain for the time being the gatekeepers for leadership candidates, but the party is such that it would be far harder to resist a more acceptable face of leftism sans Corbyn's history next time out, even if the PLP learn from the last battle and try to do so. I still think they might go for it, even if the prize is to end up with a Nandy or a Clive Lewis or whoever else from the Corbyn coterie emerges as a front runner in the meantime.
FPPT: The margin of victory and the likely similar rules of any future contest are going to make it hard for the Labour centre and right. They can plot, but with a Shadow Cabinet likely to contain a number of younger anti-austerity voices, someone may well shine. Anyone who challenges from a more centrist position is likely to merely be a stalking horse.
A younger left-winger will likely not have the baggage of Corbyn, may not have obtained their left-wing ideas from the same set-text handbooks as Corbyn, may be more open to new thinking as part of the mix and may be a more attractive proposition to the electorate. As such, perhaps the Labour centre might be better spending their time developing new ideas to refresh their repertoire, ready for an ideological battle in the purest sense: a battle to get ideas on the table.
I seriously doubt Corbyn is Labour's messiah, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could be their John the Baptist.
Blunkett has retired from active politics, but perhaps he could be tempted back. The only other Sheffield MP with much name recognition is Nick Clegg, but he's the wrong party to have any chance of winning, though he could be the Lib Dem candidate.
In principle, Labour could always go for some celebrity with a Sheffield connection, but that would probably upset Labour's Sheffield members.
He might be a contender.
He would have toppled Clegg were it not for the Tories4Clegg
(already threats on Labour Uncut to deselect Blairites)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQT_RxdWIAITzKe.jpg
Just waiting for Linlithgow. Also, so far the @ScotTories have increased their vote share in every ward
The northern mayors are going to be running a somewhat wider range of stuff than the Mayor of London, whose genuine powers are pretty much restricted to looking after a very large train set. As much as I also warmed to Coppard, who ran his campaign as a sort of Sheffield Zac Goldsmith, I think he would be better earning his safe seat and choosing someone with a bit more administrative experience for the mayoral candidate.
There were at least four Lib Dem candidates in yesterday´s elections. You don´t want to believe everything Mr Dair posts on here.
Lisa Nandy also got a lot of mentions in the context of a person that Corbyn could endorse as a successor.
Owen Smith was also very well touted. Interestingly Damian McBride tipped him even before last May.
Owen Smith is interesting and I see you have him short!
People would always remember the whiff of the scandal of him and his " chosen men" putting down the mill rebellion when the Luddites refused to accept the industrial revolution.
:-)
http://modularhomeowners.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/mansion.jpg
I agree that Chuka Umunna and David Miliband look like terrible value.
In these days of devolution and EVEL, I just don;t see Smith, or any other welsh MP, getting the top job.
Much like calling a football team The Scum which seems to apply to pretty much every team in the country.
/C18th
We had all those mod cons you mention for as far back as I can remember. But we did not have a fridge until the 1970s, or any kind of central heat (and then it was space heaters) until the late 70s. Not claiming poverty - that's just how it was in old houses. I remember there were government grants for installing insulation and space heaters to encourage conversion.
*Barring events dear boy.
Proposed definition: The act of publicly invoking the blessing of God before embarking on a political campaign
http://www.manchestercathedral.org/events/1105/peoples-assembly-at-the-manchester-cathedral-faith-united-against-austerity
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Stephen Kinnock.
Thought he was v sensible on QT. No idea any skeletons or his form in general.
If one acceptable to the Stop the War Coalition were to be nominated, then a single candidate would inevitably be nominated by the rest of the PLP. The battle would then be between each sides 3pounders. But in any event it would lead to a violet and viscious campaign. Civil war. Who wins would be largely irrelevant. As a commentator said, Labour are trapped in a burning building.
All the above assumes Corbyn could find 35 MPs to nominate his chosen successor. If not then he stays. Either way Labour are still trapped in their burning building.
So Maoist rather than Trot?
Agreed, that at the moment, the SNP are riding high, but being on the back of a tiger puts you uncomfortably close to some rather sharp teeth. Thomson has been thrown to the press to distract them from Sturgeon's even more long term friend, Hyslop. And, I can't really help thinking that this is just the start.
Anyone any idea of where I can get some money on Salmond returning as FM, yet again, to save the SNP at Holyrood?