politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t read too much into primary polls at this point in the

First?

rcs1000 said:

JxSi + CUP now at 49%.

And now at 48%.

I've been taking a long look.

Most winners start in the middle of the field. You can see McCain for example is third above.

Also most people after their polling starts to slide do not recover, i.e. momentum is important in securing the backing of major figures / donors.

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

JxSi + CUP now at 49%.

And now at 48%.

I'm confused I thought from BBC reports that the pro-independence Catalan parties were standing on a unified ticket this time, so why are two parties being added together?

FPT, two recent polls have put Leave ahead. I'd still make Remain slight favourites at this point.

FPT

blackburn63 said:

I'm glad we're now getting down to economics. If an unemployed man is on benefits of £20k pa how many immigrants will it take to fund him? My view is its better to get the person already here to take the job, then the welfare bill is cut, something you and IDS want.

Incidentally, how much per week will somebody earning the min wage pay in VAT? £10?

You're assuming that if the migration that is filling the vacancy was abolished then an unemployed person who is presently refusing to would take the job. More likely is that the unemployed person continues to be unemployed and the company unable to fill its vacancies closes down.

As for how much is VAT, about 10% of discretionary spending by the poorest quintile is VAT. Not VAT-rated but VAT.

Furthermore not everyone who starts a minimum wage job stays on minimum wage for the rest of their life.

2008 was a rather exceptional case. In any case even then McCain was third as the polls above show, which suggests the nominee will either be Trump, Carson or Fiorina. It was the collapse of Giuliani's support which really changed the race as most of his support went direct to McCain. In 2012 Romney led in 9 polls at the end of September. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_2012_presidential_primaries

In 1999 George W Bush was consistently ahead at this stage for the GOP nomination, as was Bob Dole in 1995, Bush Snr in 1991 and 1987 and Ronald Reagan in 1979

SeanT said:

To declare UDI the Catalan separatists surely need a majority of votes AND seats. If they do get that, given that Madrid has denied a referendum, they would morally be entitled to go UDI. And well they might

I don't think that will happen. Suspect they will get a maj of seats and not votes and then clamour, very reasonably, for a plebiscite.

JxSi look likely to be sub 40%, with CUP (who are pro independence, but anti UDI) are on 7.5%.

SeanT said:

To declare UDI the Catalan separatists surely need a majority of votes AND seats. If they do get that, given that Madrid has denied a referendum, they would morally be entitled to go UDI. And well they might

I don't think that will happen. Suspect they will get a maj of seats and not votes and then clamour, very reasonably, for a plebiscite.

It's going to be tight. The next big development will be the Spanish GE. PP will lose its overall majority then. At that stage the new government will offer the Catalans what the Basques have and a referendum to rubber stamp it. That will be agreed, the referendum will be won and things will calm down.

This all could have been sorted years ago, but the Spanish nationalist PP would not countenance it. The fools.

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

To declare UDI the Catalan separatists surely need a majority of votes AND seats. If they do get that, given that Madrid has denied a referendum, they would morally be entitled to go UDI. And well they might

I don't think that will happen. Suspect they will get a maj of seats and not votes and then clamour, very reasonably, for a plebiscite.

JxSi look likely to be sub 40%, with CUP (who are pro independence, but anti UDI) are on 7.5%.

That's with 50% of votes cast. It could go up again, but if it stays as it is that's not good for Junts at all.

geoffw said:

It's metropolitan Barcelona that's keeping the JxSí + CUP % shares down.
42.4% there with half the votes counted.

Yep. There's been a much higher turnout there than usual. So far, it looks like the PSC vote is holding up pretty well. That's probably because of people who don't usually vote.

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

To declare UDI the Catalan separatists surely need a majority of votes AND seats. If they do get that, given that Madrid has denied a referendum, they would morally be entitled to go UDI. And well they might

I don't think that will happen. Suspect they will get a maj of seats and not votes and then clamour, very reasonably, for a plebiscite.

JxSi look likely to be sub 40%, with CUP (who are pro independence, but anti UDI) are on 7.5%.

That's with 50% of votes cast. It could go up again, but if it stays as it is that's not good for Junts at all.

If JxSi is sub-40% then there will be no UDI.

JEO said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

To declare UDI the Catalan separatists surely need a majority of votes AND seats. If they do get that, given that Madrid has denied a referendum, they would morally be entitled to go UDI. And well they might

I don't think that will happen. Suspect they will get a maj of seats and not votes and then clamour, very reasonably, for a plebiscite.

It's going to be tight. The next big development will be the Spanish GE. PP will lose its overall majority then. At that stage the new government will offer the Catalans what the Basques have and a referendum to rubber stamp it. That will be agreed, the referendum will be won and things will calm down.

This all could have been sorted years ago, but the Spanish nationalist PP would not countenance it. The fools.

How come Valencia does not have any nationalist sentiment? Seems a very similar background to Catalonia.

Catalonia was never a pro-separatist region until the PP refused to countenance giving the Catalans the deal the Basques have. But Valencia is much more "Spanish" than Catalonia, even in the places they speak Valencian.

felix said:

Dair said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

To declare UDI the Catalan separatists surely need a majority of votes AND seats. If they do get that, given that Madrid has denied a referendum, they would morally be entitled to go UDI. And well they might

I don't think that will happen. Suspect they will get a maj of seats and not votes and then clamour, very reasonably, for a plebiscite.

JxSi look likely to be sub 40%, with CUP (who are pro independence, but anti UDI) are on 7.5%.

I would expect the county will be similar to how it works in the UK and rural areas are amongst the later ones to complete their counts. This means Junts and CUP should finish higher at the end.

With 64% counted it is hard to see the vote count for UDI exceeding 50%.

CUP is pro independence but not pro UDI

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

Dair said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

To declare UDI the Catalan separatists surely need a majority of votes AND seats. If they do get that, given that Madrid has denied a referendum, they would morally be entitled to go UDI. And well they might

I don't think that will happen. Suspect they will get a maj of seats and not votes and then clamour, very reasonably, for a plebiscite.

JxSi look likely to be sub 40%, with CUP (who are pro independence, but anti UDI) are on 7.5%.

I would expect the county will be similar to how it works in the UK and rural areas are amongst the later ones to complete their counts. This means Junts and CUP should finish higher at the end.

With 64% counted it is hard to see the vote count for UDI exceeding 50%.

CUP is pro independence but not pro UDI

So it seems to be impossible for UDI to reach 50% then.

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

To declare UDI the Catalan separatists surely need a majority of votes AND seats. If they do get that, given that Madrid has denied a referendum, they would morally be entitled to go UDI. And well they might

I don't think that will happen. Suspect they will get a maj of seats and not votes and then clamour, very reasonably, for a plebiscite.

It's going to be tight. The next big development will be the Spanish GE. PP will lose its overall majority then. At that stage the new government will offer the Catalans what the Basques have and a referendum to rubber stamp it. That will be agreed, the referendum will be won and things will calm down.

This all could have been sorted years ago, but the Spanish nationalist PP would not countenance it. The fools.

In the end more powers is what settles all these issues, it was Quebec being given more autonomy than any other Canadian province which settled the issue there after their second referendum and it will probably be Full Fiscal Autonomy which settles the Scottish issue, probably again once there is a second referendum

rcs1000 said:

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

To declare UDI the Catalan separatists surely need a majority of votes AND seats. If they do get that, given that Madrid has denied a referendum, they would morally be entitled to go UDI. And well they might

I don't think that will happen. Suspect they will get a maj of seats and not votes and then clamour, very reasonably, for a plebiscite.

JxSi look likely to be sub 40%, with CUP (who are pro independence, but anti UDI) are on 7.5%.

That's with 50% of votes cast. It could go up again, but if it stays as it is that's not good for Junts at all.

If JxSi is sub-40% then there will be no UDI.

It's unlikely, I agree - unless CUP somehow get 10% plus.

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JEO said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

blackburn63 said:

I'm glad we're now getting down to economics. If an unemployed man is on benefits of £20k pa how many immigrants will it take to fund him? My view is its better to get the person already here to take the job, then the welfare bill is cut, something you and IDS want.

Incidentally, how much per week will somebody earning the min wage pay in VAT? £10?

You're assuming that if the migration that is filling the vacancy was abolished then an unemployed person who is presently refusing to would take the job. More likely is that the unemployed person continues to be unemployed and the company unable to fill its vacancies closes down.

If it's a low skilled job, the right answer is to design incentives and training so that he does take the job.

All of that already happens, you're not proposing anything new there. Come up with a solution that's not part of the status quo and you may have a point.

More could be done to increase computer literacy. Secondary school and sixth form does not equip students particularly well for studying computer science. It also used to have one of the higher rates of unemployment amongst graduates.

I believe the secondary school curriculum is changing and will no longer teach students how to use Microsoft Office.

This should hopefully increase the number of graduates who are able to programme proficiently and therefore reduce the reliance on foreign workers for entry level IT jobs.

This is a solution to a skills shortage which does not over rely on the use of foreign labour.

Youth unemployment is the fastest falling part of unemployment already.

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting that so far the Podemos-backed grouping is not doing that well. Ciutadans are currently ahead of the best poll forecasts.

It could all still change though.

That could augur well for them at the GE.

You have to throw the CUP vote to get the full far left share.

If you don't mind me asking, what's your link to Spain? You're always very knowledgeable about Spanish affairs.

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting that so far the Podemos-backed grouping is not doing that well. Ciutadans are currently ahead of the best poll forecasts.

It could all still change though.

That could augur well for them at the GE.

You have to throw the CUP vote to get the full far left share.

CUP is a strange bunch, some libertarians, some radical anti Europeans, some hard left loonies...

Another interesting day but there’s still time for many more such days for sure. We are currently going through an extended charade which can only end when JC (or Labour) realises that he (or it) is in the altogether. Then there will be a different charade.

Having watched JC teeter on the brink of losing it whilst taking on the fearsome pussy cat AM this morning (I thought AM teetered a bit too), because he wasn’t being asked the questions he wanted to be asked, it’s come as no real surprise that debate of Trident seems to have been kicked into the very, very long grass. The reason seems to be that the unions would have opposed scrapping it, ensuring an embarrassing defeat for JC. The unions are now openly marking people’s cards about their “influence” over JC, amply demonstrated by JC’s surrender. Having lived in his cosy leftie cocoon all his puff, is JC now getting an inkling that his new clothes may not be all they’re cracked up to be? Should he have thrown away the anonymity of his comfy old clothes?

Labour and its £3 voters are said to have given JC a huge mandate, but is that mandate to him alone or conditional upon him sticking with his policies? Did Labour and its £3 voters expect JC to have to dance to the unions’ tune? There is much backsliding on this. There will be debate and dissent allowed even within the politburo (now seemingly subject to union consent). I doubt Scotland will stand for being a substitute Siberia and Gulags might also be a hard sell, so how will JC and his cronies persuade sufficient co-operation within the party to enable it to function as anything other than a debating society under the gaze of big brother unions. The Corbynistas (even the reluctant ones) are mouthing platitudes about big tents with room for all, but there is no realism, even from those that you might have expected it from.

Backbench MPs can be as cantankerous as they like, as JC knows only too well, but this freedom to rebel cannot read across to the collective responsibility required of those at the top of credible political parties. JC had to select his shadow cabinet from a very restricted list of those even remotely qualified, resulting in its downmarket appearance, not helped by JC’s grinning presence. Many are simply chancers with no standing except as fodder to JC’s policy fantasies. JC will try to direct the debate on what he’s being told are his popular policies (now discernible as those supported by the unions) but his political opponents (which include most of the media) control those headlines and I don’t believe his policies have any chance of cutting through to anyone except the already gulled Corbynistas.

Where will Labour’s moderate votes go? Which of the possible recipients is best equipped to win? Things may change but at present it’s not really game on is it?

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting that so far the Podemos-backed grouping is not doing that well. Ciutadans are currently ahead of the best poll forecasts.

It could all still change though.

That could augur well for them at the GE.

You have to throw the CUP vote to get the full far left share.

If you don't mind me asking, what's your link to Spain? You're always very knowledgeable about Spanish affairs.

I lived in Catalonia (Lleida) for five years. I am doing some on and off work in Barcelona now too.

I love it there.

JosiasJessop said:

I never quite worked out why some of the best coders I knew had geography/geology related degrees, though ...

Okay, so I'm not an especially great coder but I'm a geographer and my job has required me to learn how to do certain things. For me I've discovered computing later in life because it was never something that was prominent in my education and my parents are almost completely computer illiterate. I guess geography was a traditional subject that I quite liked a school and so did it as a degree. I wish, however, I had done a maths degree.

@SO Lérida or Lleida has a clear separatist majority.

Junts claiming victory and a mandate to pursue independence. That's to be expected. But no-one's going to buy it.

Been out all day, has anyone mentioned that McDonnell wants a Financial Transaction Tax.. an FTT

What larks eh...is he even more bonkers than one previously thought possible?

Dair said:

What is the position of Catalunya Sí que es Pot

From Spanish wikipedia they appear to support a Catalan state. But that's with a translated page so I can't be sure.

They support the right to a referendum, but don't support independence.

Junts (CIU + ERC) have fallen back ~ 5% since 2012.

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

What is the position of Catalunya Sí que es Pot

From Spanish wikipedia they appear to support a Catalan state. But that's with a translated page so I can't be sure.

They support the right to a referendum, but don't support independence.

So a Referendum has the support of Junts, CUP and CatSi or 56% currently. And potentially either CUP or CatSi could support a JxSi ultimatum to Madrid.

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting that so far the Podemos-backed grouping is not doing that well. Ciutadans are currently ahead of the best poll forecasts.

It could all still change though.

That could augur well for them at the GE.

You have to throw the CUP vote to get the full far left share.

If you don't mind me asking, what's your link to Spain? You're always very knowledgeable about Spanish affairs.

I lived in Catalonia (Lleida) for five years. I am doing some on and off work in Barcelona now too.

I love it there.

Thanks, I like Spain too. My friend spent several years living in Madrid and I went to visit him on a regular basis.

I like Madrid a lot. It's much more interesting and lively than Barcelona these days. And much cheaper!

I was in Madrid on 7/7. It was an eye opening experience.

They couldn't comprehend British stoicism and the stoicism of Londoners

geoffw said:

Junts (CIU + ERC) have fallen back ~ 5% since 2012.

It seems pretty clear that this has gone to CUP who want a referendum first, so the UDI fear is at play here.

89% turnout and junts are below 40%. Can't see independence happening after this.

What is Citizen's opinion on a referendum SO? I know they are soft-unionist but do they support that by referendum or refusal?

They seem to be hoovering up a lot of the PSC and PP vote.

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting that so far the Podemos-backed grouping is not doing that well. Ciutadans are currently ahead of the best poll forecasts.

It could all still change though.

That could augur well for them at the GE.

You have to throw the CUP vote to get the full far left share.

If you don't mind me asking, what's your link to Spain? You're always very knowledgeable about Spanish affairs.

I lived in Catalonia (Lleida) for five years. I am doing some on and off work in Barcelona now too.

I love it there.

Thanks, I like Spain too. My friend spent several years living in Madrid and I went to visit him on a regular basis.

I like Madrid a lot. It's much more interesting and lively than Barcelona these days. And much cheaper!

Barcelona is overwhelmed by tourism.

It is. Podemos won the local election there on a promise to rein it back. They've already put a hold on new hotel builds.

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting that so far the Podemos-backed grouping is not doing that well. Ciutadans are currently ahead of the best poll forecasts.

It could all still change though.

That could augur well for them at the GE.

You have to throw the CUP vote to get the full far left share.

If you don't mind me asking, what's your link to Spain? You're always very knowledgeable about Spanish affairs.

I lived in Catalonia (Lleida) for five years. I am doing some on and off work in Barcelona now too.

I love it there.

Thanks, I like Spain too. My friend spent several years living in Madrid and I went to visit him on a regular basis.

I like Madrid a lot. It's much more interesting and lively than Barcelona these days. And much cheaper!

I was in Madrid on 7/7. It was an eye opening experience.

They couldn't comprehend British stoicism and the stoicism of Londoners

I've got Spanish friends who can't comprehend that we don't have bars on our front doors, so in theory people could physically break in, but they don't. I suppose you don't notice the good things till someone else points them out.

A year earlier you had the Madrid attacks which in part helped topple the Government (and saw mass public protests against terrorism)

So the Spaniards were looking on how we Brits reacted, they were expecting us to topple Blair and mass street protests.

They were shocked that we kept calm and carried on and uttered the immortal phrase of "We've been blown up by a better class of bastard before"

In one of the Spanish papers their London correspondents said it was this approach to things that helped explain why the UK was one of the very few countries in Europe not to have known fascist or communist governments.

Dair said:

felix said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

What is the position of Catalunya Sí que es Pot

From Spanish wikipedia they appear to support a Catalan state. But that's with a translated page so I can't be sure.

They support the right to a referendum, but don't support independence.

So a Referendum has the support of Junts, CUP and CatSi or 56% currently. And potentially either CUP or CatSi could support a JxSi ultimatum to Madrid.

Nope - CUP will not act unless more than 50% vote for independence parties.

Their platform for the election is that they won't support UDI.

CUP and CatSiQueEsPot both support a referendum but Madrid is denying it. Therefore either of those parties are going to be in a position of leverage. They can force Madrid into granting a referendum or agree to support Junts plans for UDI (which Junts themselves probably see as secondary to holding a referendum).

Madrid is in trouble.

It's been blocked by the Constitutional Court. The only way to override that is via a constitutional amendment that would have to be endorsed in a Spain-wide referendum.

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

felix said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

What is the position of Catalunya Sí que es Pot

From Spanish wikipedia they appear to support a Catalan state. But that's with a translated page so I can't be sure.

They support the right to a referendum, but don't support independence.

So a Referendum has the support of Junts, CUP and CatSi or 56% currently. And potentially either CUP or CatSi could support a JxSi ultimatum to Madrid.

Nope - CUP will not act unless more than 50% vote for independence parties.

Their platform for the election is that they won't support UDI.

CUP and CatSiQueEsPot both support a referendum but Madrid is denying it. Therefore either of those parties are going to be in a position of leverage. They can force Madrid into granting a referendum or agree to support Junts plans for UDI (which Junts themselves probably see as secondary to holding a referendum).

Madrid is in trouble.

It's been blocked by the Constitutional Court. The only way to override that is via a constitutional amendment that would have to be endorsed in a Spain-wide referendum.

Do you think it is beyond the wit of people to find away around such an obstacle?

Dair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dair said:

What is Citizen's opinion on a referendum SO? I know they are soft-unionist but do they support that by referendum or refusal?

They seem to be hoovering up a lot of the PSC and PP vote.

Does it matter? They don't get a say, the power of a referendum belongs to the nation as a whole not to the region - so this was used unilaterally as a quasi-referendum. If its been lost by the people who called it then saying "ah but they're soft unionists" is irrelevant. Either a majority have voted for independence or they haven't.

Junts are attempting to leverage a referendum. There are at least two other parties with 16% of the vote and 20 seats who want a referendum. It seems you don't understand how politics works.

I do understand, you don't seem to understand. Junts have no legal right to hold a referendum so they have attempted to use this as a quasi-referendum in proxy to pressure Madrid into holding a referendum. It seems they've failed to reach the threshold they wanted to of a majority in favour of independence.

Madrid will as they've continued to say simple rule that Catalonia has no right to hold a referendum and that if there is to be a referendum it will be a national one not a Catalonia only one.

In the meantime some form of fudge will likely be sought to get a Basque style settlement for Catalonia.

JxSi climbing again, but still likely to be sub 40%, given we are 95% counted now

Philip_Thompson said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

felix said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

What is the position of Catalunya Sí que es Pot

From Spanish wikipedia they appear to support a Catalan state. But that's with a translated page so I can't be sure.

They support the right to a referendum, but don't support independence.

So a Referendum has the support of Junts, CUP and CatSi or 56% currently. And potentially either CUP or CatSi could support a JxSi ultimatum to Madrid.

Nope - CUP will not act unless more than 50% vote for independence parties.

Their platform for the election is that they won't support UDI.

CUP and CatSiQueEsPot both support a referendum but Madrid is denying it. Therefore either of those parties are going to be in a position of leverage. They can force Madrid into granting a referendum or agree to support Junts plans for UDI (which Junts themselves probably see as secondary to holding a referendum).

Madrid is in trouble.

It's been blocked by the Constitutional Court. The only way to override that is via a constitutional amendment that would have to be endorsed in a Spain-wide referendum.

Do you think it is beyond the wit of people to find away around such an obstacle?

Yes. They've held a referendum that was ruled illegal and ignored, so they've held this election as a second proxy referendum and a majority have not voted for independence. This is a setback for Catalan independence.

39.62% for JxSI is more than the 32.9% the SNP got in 2007 but less than the 45.4% the SNP got in 2011 so they may need to wait for another election for a referendum. In Quebec the PQ won 41.37% in 1976 and got a referendum in 1980 in 1994 44.75% and a referendum in 1995

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

felix said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

What is the position of Catalunya Sí que es Pot

From Spanish wikipedia they appear to support a Catalan state. But that's with a translated page so I can't be sure.

They support the right to a referendum, but don't support independence.

So a Referendum has the support of Junts, CUP and CatSi or 56% currently. And potentially either CUP or CatSi could support a JxSi ultimatum to Madrid.

Nope - CUP will not act unless more than 50% vote for independence parties.

Their platform for the election is that they won't support UDI.

CUP and CatSiQueEsPot both support a referendum but Madrid is denying it. Therefore either of those parties are going to be in a position of leverage. They can force Madrid into granting a referendum or agree to support Junts plans for UDI (which Junts themselves probably see as secondary to holding a referendum).

Madrid is in trouble.

It's been blocked by the Constitutional Court. The only way to override that is via a constitutional amendment that would have to be endorsed in a Spain-wide referendum.

Do you think it is beyond the wit of people to find away around such an obstacle?

Yes. They've held a referendum that was ruled illegal and ignored, so they've held this election as a second proxy referendum and a majority have not voted for independence. This is a setback for Catalan independence.

39.62% for JxSI is more than the 32.9% the SNP got in 2007 but less than 45.4% the SNP got in 2011 so they may need to wait for another election for a referendum

Apples and oranges, Westminster was willing to let the Scots hold a referendum so long as the Scots chose to elect a party wanting it. Madrid is dead set against.

felix said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

felix said:

Dair said:

SouthamObserver said:

Dair said:

What is the position of Catalunya Sí que es Pot

From Spanish wikipedia they appear to support a Catalan state. But that's with a translated page so I can't be sure.

They support the right to a referendum, but don't support independence.

So a Referendum has the support of Junts, CUP and CatSi or 56% currently. And potentially either CUP or CatSi could support a JxSi ultimatum to Madrid.

Nope - CUP will not act unless more than 50% vote for independence parties.

Their platform for the election is that they won't support UDI.

CUP and CatSiQueEsPot both support a referendum but Madrid is denying it. Therefore either of those parties are going to be in a position of leverage. They can force Madrid into granting a referendum or agree to support Junts plans for UDI (which Junts themselves probably see as secondary to holding a referendum).

Madrid is in trouble.

It's been blocked by the Constitutional Court. The only way to override that is via a constitutional amendment that would have to be endorsed in a Spain-wide referendum.

Do you think it is beyond the wit of people to find away around such an obstacle?

Yes. They've held a referendum that was ruled illegal and ignored, so they've held this election as a second proxy referendum and a majority have not voted for independence. This is a setback for Catalan independence.

39.62% for JxSI is more than the 32.9% the SNP got in 2007 but less than 45.4% the SNP got in 2011 so they may need to wait for another election for a referendum

I expect that after the GE later this year some sort of Federal deal will be cobbbled together. Tonight's vote suggests that full independence is probably not wanted by most Catalonians.

I think that's absolutely right.

felix said:

HYUFD said:

39.62% for JxSI is more than the 32.9% the SNP got in 2007 but less than 45.4% the SNP got in 2011 so they may need to wait for another election for a referendum

I expect that after the GE later this year some sort of Federal deal will be cobbbled together. Tonight's vote suggests that full independence is probably not wanted by most Catalonians.

Don't let the facts get in the way of your rant.

57% support at least a referendum. All the vote has done is entrench the unionists (single issue unionist Citizens taking votes from the PP and PSC) and shown UDI is not wanted (small transfer from Junts to CUP).

Independence hasn't been rejected, just UDI.