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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t read too much into primary polls at this point in the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t read too much into primary polls at this point in the electoral cycle
Out of the fifteen polls completed in September 2007, John McCain the eventual nominee didn’t lead in any of them polling as low as 10% and generally being in a distant third/fourth place behind the frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson who were polling in the 30s. In October 2007 McCain polled as low as 8%.
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Most winners start in the middle of the field. You can see McCain for example is third above.
Also most people after their polling starts to slide do not recover, i.e. momentum is important in securing the backing of major figures / donors.
As for how much is VAT, about 10% of discretionary spending by the poorest quintile is VAT. Not VAT-rated but VAT.
Furthermore not everyone who starts a minimum wage job stays on minimum wage for the rest of their life.
In 1999 George W Bush was consistently ahead at this stage for the GOP nomination, as was Bob Dole in 1995, Bush Snr in 1991 and 1987 and Ronald Reagan in 1979
This all could have been sorted years ago, but the Spanish nationalist PP would not countenance it. The fools.
42.4% there with half the votes counted.
As for 3/1 I think that's about right. Events could change things from the status quo so 3/1 against seems reasonable.
What a moron.
Absolutely right TSE and there are far better betting opportunities to be had in the 20/1 - 50/1 range, as OGH discovered to his considerable benefit around 8 years ago.
It could all still change though.
I believe the secondary school curriculum is changing and will no longer teach students how to use Microsoft Office.
This should hopefully increase the number of graduates who are able to programme proficiently and therefore reduce the reliance on foreign workers for entry level IT jobs.
This is a solution to a skills shortage which does not over rely on the use of foreign labour.
Maybe.
Much better were physics, maths, and even (to my surprise) geography students - who were generally people who taught themselves programming as parts of other courses. I never quite worked out why some of the best coders I knew had geography/geology related degrees, though ...
Perhaps the courses have changed for the better in the last few years.
It's a great result for Ciutadans. The Socialists will also be pleased.
Having watched JC teeter on the brink of losing it whilst taking on the fearsome pussy cat AM this morning (I thought AM teetered a bit too), because he wasn’t being asked the questions he wanted to be asked, it’s come as no real surprise that debate of Trident seems to have been kicked into the very, very long grass. The reason seems to be that the unions would have opposed scrapping it, ensuring an embarrassing defeat for JC. The unions are now openly marking people’s cards about their “influence” over JC, amply demonstrated by JC’s surrender. Having lived in his cosy leftie cocoon all his puff, is JC now getting an inkling that his new clothes may not be all they’re cracked up to be? Should he have thrown away the anonymity of his comfy old clothes?
Labour and its £3 voters are said to have given JC a huge mandate, but is that mandate to him alone or conditional upon him sticking with his policies? Did Labour and its £3 voters expect JC to have to dance to the unions’ tune? There is much backsliding on this. There will be debate and dissent allowed even within the politburo (now seemingly subject to union consent). I doubt Scotland will stand for being a substitute Siberia and Gulags might also be a hard sell, so how will JC and his cronies persuade sufficient co-operation within the party to enable it to function as anything other than a debating society under the gaze of big brother unions. The Corbynistas (even the reluctant ones) are mouthing platitudes about big tents with room for all, but there is no realism, even from those that you might have expected it from.
Backbench MPs can be as cantankerous as they like, as JC knows only too well, but this freedom to rebel cannot read across to the collective responsibility required of those at the top of credible political parties. JC had to select his shadow cabinet from a very restricted list of those even remotely qualified, resulting in its downmarket appearance, not helped by JC’s grinning presence. Many are simply chancers with no standing except as fodder to JC’s policy fantasies. JC will try to direct the debate on what he’s being told are his popular policies (now discernible as those supported by the unions) but his political opponents (which include most of the media) control those headlines and I don’t believe his policies have any chance of cutting through to anyone except the already gulled Corbynistas.
Where will Labour’s moderate votes go? Which of the possible recipients is best equipped to win? Things may change but at present it’s not really game on is it?
I love it there.
From Spanish wikipedia they appear to support a Catalan state. But that's with a translated page so I can't be sure.
I await the geography graduates to start screaming ...
What larks eh...is he even more bonkers than one previously thought possible?
They couldn't comprehend British stoicism and the stoicism of Londoners
They seem to be hoovering up a lot of the PSC and PP vote.
CUP and CatSiQueEsPot both support a referendum but Madrid is denying it. Therefore either of those parties are going to be in a position of leverage. They can force Madrid into granting a referendum or agree to support Junts plans for UDI (which Junts themselves probably see as secondary to holding a referendum).
Madrid is in trouble.
So the Spaniards were looking on how we Brits reacted, they were expecting us to topple Blair and mass street protests.
They were shocked that we kept calm and carried on and uttered the immortal phrase of "We've been blown up by a better class of bastard before"
In one of the Spanish papers their London correspondents said it was this approach to things that helped explain why the UK was one of the very few countries in Europe not to have known fascist or communist governments.
Madrid will as they've continued to say simple rule that Catalonia has no right to hold a referendum and that if there is to be a referendum it will be a national one not a Catalonia only one.
In the meantime some form of fudge will likely be sought to get a Basque style settlement for Catalonia.
The big winners tonight are Ciutadans.
57% support at least a referendum. All the vote has done is entrench the unionists (single issue unionist Citizens taking votes from the PP and PSC) and shown UDI is not wanted (small transfer from Junts to CUP).
Independence hasn't been rejected, just UDI.