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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly the polls and the betting move away from Donald Trump
How the betting has moved sharply away from. Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/dfYCZZdeJX
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The Realclearpolitics polls still seem to show him in front by a fair margin (over Carson)?0
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FPT:
I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.
The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf0 -
If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.0
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My guess is that the figure referred to how Liz Kendall supporters split.Danny565 said:FPT:
I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.
The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf0 -
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They'll be calling him the combback kid when he bounces back during the primaries.antifrank said:If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.
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I saw a video of Carly Fiorina speaking in 2006 when she joked about (untrue) jibes about her travelling with a personal hairdresser that, "They don't say that about Donald Trump and his hair is way more complicated than mine." I bet she never imagined that 9 years later she'd be running against him for the Presidency.0
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I cant see any dates on the chart, however, this may in part, be a consequence Scott Walker, dropping out, reminding everybody that as some of the more mainstream contenders drop out, there supporters are more likely to switch to other Mainstream contenders?0
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The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.0
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O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.SandyRentool said:The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
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What's notable about the Fox News report is that Fox is now attacking Trump again.0
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I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.JEO said:
O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.SandyRentool said:The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...0 -
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It's possible that if Biden opens up the race, people take interest in the debates, and O'Malley gets more attention.Charles said:
I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.JEO said:
O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.SandyRentool said:The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...0 -
Go Fiorina! Huge pay day for me if it happens.0
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Their MP's do, with room to spare for a bitter and twisted donor.williamglenn said:0 -
Could someone enlighten me - re Sepp Blatter he is alleged to have made a 'disloyal payment' to Michel Platini - what is a disloyal payment as I have never heard of it - sorry to go off topic0
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The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/6474121071814901760 -
What about Ed Miliband's taxi?williamglenn said:
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I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning and is on his national finance committeeJEO said:
O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.SandyRentool said:The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
Of course @HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...0 -
As the Lib Dems believe that the EU is superior to the UK you could therefore argue that it is the MEPs who really count and not the MPs. The number of Lib Dem MEPs would barely register on a bar chart when compared to the number of UKIP MEPs.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/6474121071814901760 -
Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/6474121071814901760 -
FPT I have just done the Roman Emperor quiz. It says I am Theodora.0
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The smoked Kipper look is generally obtained on the Costa del Sol.Casino_Royale said:
Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/6474121071814901760 -
Though the UKIP MEPs want to make themselves redundant!MP_SE said:
As the Lib Dems believe that the EU is superior to the UK you could therefore argue that it is the MEPs who really count and not the MPs. The number of Lib Dem MEPs would barely register on a bar chart when compared to the number of UKIP MEPs.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/6474121071814901760 -
Stupid to have the conference in Doncaster and not in London.williamglenn said:
The smoked Kipper look is generally obtained on the Costa del Sol.Casino_Royale said:
Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176-1 -
Perhaps wise to keep some of the speakers as far away from the Smoke as possible:MikeK said:
Stupid to have the conference in Doncaster and not in London.williamglenn said:
The smoked Kipper look is generally obtained on the Costa del Sol.Casino_Royale said:
Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
Take a look at @Daily_Express's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/647468748404883456?s=09
Whoever said "there is no such thing as bad publicity" certainly seems to have the ear of the UKIP conference. It should all be very entertaining on the news tonight, and Carswell speech tommorow will be one to watch too.0 -
Latest CNN poll has Trump at 26, up by ten, in New Hampshire. Are bettors moving on to the next shiny new bauble before the voters?0
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Unlike the Lib Dems in the House of Lords.foxinsoxuk said:
Though the UKIP MEPs want to make themselves redundant!MP_SE said:
As the Lib Dems believe that the EU is superior to the UK you could therefore argue that it is the MEPs who really count and not the MPs. The number of Lib Dem MEPs would barely register on a bar chart when compared to the number of UKIP MEPs.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/6474121071814901760 -
Hard to know what's going on with the GOP race. Trump is certainly not going forwards, and Bush isn't showing his stuff. Beyond that it's mostly noise.
I've backed Fiorina. To me she seems credible and sensible. I also think that the Republicans would like to get one over on the Democrats by running the first female candidate.
All the polling is a bit sketchy currently. The candidates that aren't really in the race will just drop out along the way, and it'll be clearer in a few weeks. Personally I expect Carson to drop out also - I think he'll work out he's not suited to be the big cheese.
Trump will of course run as far as he can. It'll be best for everyone if that involves a collision with a brick wall.0 -
Did I just flag you as Off Topic? So sorry, my laptop sees clicks where none are intended.MikeK said:
Stupid to have the conference in Doncaster and not in London.williamglenn said:
The smoked Kipper look is generally obtained on the Costa del Sol.Casino_Royale said:
Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/6474121071814901760 -
I think Rubio, personally, purely because he's the one candidate who doesn't seem to have huge weaknesses. Jeb Bush is managing to make Mitt Romney look like a dynamic and inspirational candidate.Omnium said:Hard to know what's going on with the GOP race. Trump is certainly not going forwards, and Bush isn't showing his stuff. Beyond that it's mostly noise.
I've backed Fiorina. To me she seems credible and sensible. I also think that the Republicans would like to get one over on the Democrats by running the first female candidate.
All the polling is a bit sketchy currently. The candidates that aren't really in the race will just drop out along the way, and it'll be clearer in a few weeks. Personally I expect Carson to drop out also - I think he'll work out he's not suited to be the big cheese.
Trump will of course run as far as he can. It'll be best for everyone if that involves a collision with a brick wall.0 -
Really? The polls may have dipped a little but Trump still leads in virtually all. Last night he was ahead in new polls in North Carolina, NH and Florida. The effective ousting of Boehner today as Speaker also suggests Republicans are in an anti-establishment mood which helps Trump
Elon University North Carolina Republican Primary
Trump – 21.5%
Carson – 20.9%
Fiorina – 9.9%
Rubio – 7.4%
Bush – 7.0%
Cruz – 6.2%
Huckabee – 4.1%
Paul – 2.3%
Kasich – 2.1%
Christie – 1.6%
Santorum – 1.0%
Graham – 0.2%
Gilmore – 0.0%
Jindal – 0.0%
Pataki – 0.0%
Undecided – 13.2%
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/default.xhtml
CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Republican Primary
Trump – 26%
Fiorina – 16%
Rubio – 9%
Carson – 8%
Bush – 7%
Kasich – 7%
Christie – 5%
Cruz – 5%
Paul – 3%
Gilmore – 1%
Graham – 1%
Huckabee – *
Pataki – *
Santorum – *
Jindal – 0%
Undecided – 11%
http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmurcnn-poll-trump-continues-to-lead-fiorina-now-second-in-new-hampshire/35467172
Jacksonville University Florida Republican Primary
Trump – 24%
Bush – 17%
Carson – 15%
Rubio – 15%
Fiorina – 7%
Cruz – 4%
Kasich – 2%
Huckabee – 1%
Paul – 1%
Christie – *
Graham – *
Pataki – *
Santorum – *
Gilmore – 0%
Jindal – 0%
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/09/24/ju-poll-trump-leads-fiorina-and-rubio-rise-bush-steady/72739738/0 -
O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll averageCharles said:
I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.JEO said:
O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.SandyRentool said:The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.
He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot0 -
Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html0 -
Would people mark me down as irrational, strange, or just plain nuts if I said that Farage will go down in history as an important politician?
Bad camera angles, all the flak etc, but still he's saying something that broadly makes sense. I don't know if the EU is a sensible thing. There isn't much evidence either way. The tide of Euro-involvement is very strong though. Almost everyone in the UK now knows who the most important person in Germany is. Why? They have no idea who the most important person in Wales is!
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Niall Ferguson 'England is incredibly lucky to have Cameron and Osborne'
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/niall-ferguson-arrogant-actually-i-m-far-too-good-at-hiding-my-humility-a2955651.html0 -
He hasn't done anything to promote Euro exit. His party has done a lot to do so, but to convince me to credit the rise of Ukip to Farage would take, perhaps, two or three academic papers.Omnium said:Would people mark me down as irrational, strange, or just plain nuts if I said that Farage will go down in history as an important politician?
Bad camera angles, all the flak etc, but still he's saying something that broadly makes sense. I don't know if the EU is a sensible thing. There isn't much evidence either way. The tide of Euro-involvement is very strong though. Almost everyone in the UK now knows who the most important person in Germany is. Why? They have no idea who the most important person in Wales is!0 -
At the end of the day, Trump is not old money. Bush is. The establishment will make sure Bush will be their candidate.0
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"two or three academic papers"EPG said:
He hasn't done anything to promote Euro exit. His party has done a lot to do so, but to convince me to credit the rise of Ukip to Farage would take, perhaps, two or three academic papers.Omnium said:Would people mark me down as irrational, strange, or just plain nuts if I said that Farage will go down in history as an important politician?
Bad camera angles, all the flak etc, but still he's saying something that broadly makes sense. I don't know if the EU is a sensible thing. There isn't much evidence either way. The tide of Euro-involvement is very strong though. Almost everyone in the UK now knows who the most important person in Germany is. Why? They have no idea who the most important person in Wales is!
My word you sell your convictions cheaply! I'm pretty sure you will always get people to throw in a used t-shirt, and half a carrot to your benefit on those terms.0 -
Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?HYUFD said:Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html0 -
Oh, I see. Tories switching to the Tories. That is news !MikeSmithson said:
My guess is that the figure referred to how Liz Kendall supporters split.Danny565 said:FPT:
I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.
The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf0 -
This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.AnneJGP said:
Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?HYUFD said:Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html0 -
According to that polling, Kendall supporters are more pro-Osborne than the whole general public(!).surbiton said:
Oh, I see. Tories switching to the Tories. That is news !MikeSmithson said:
My guess is that the figure referred to how Liz Kendall supporters split.Danny565 said:FPT:
I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.
The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf0 -
What a surprise !Danny565 said:
According to that polling, Kendall supporters are more pro-Osborne than the whole general public(!).surbiton said:
Oh, I see. Tories switching to the Tories. That is news !MikeSmithson said:
My guess is that the figure referred to how Liz Kendall supporters split.Danny565 said:FPT:
I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.
The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf0 -
Just backed {Bush, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina} in the Iowa Rep caucus on Betfair's traditional bookie market at just shy of evens.
I reckon it will be one of the four, maybe 80% chance.
Trump is excluded Cruz is an outside possibility, but you can't back em all.
Betfair's market has Walker still in it, should be a giveaway...)0 -
As always, my focus is on identifying the best, not the best value. Politics isn't about money: it's about choosing the leadership of the Anglosphere.HYUFD said:
O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll averageCharles said:
I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.JEO said:
O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.SandyRentool said:The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.
He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot0 -
I don't know, it's something that I've wondered about. I suppose in the event, other countries would become unwilling to share information with us.surbiton said:
This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.AnneJGP said:
Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?HYUFD said:Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html
Edited to add: Not intending to malign Mr Corbyn in any way. Just a hypothetical.0 -
Simple for our spooks to send a few titbits to Jezza and see where they wind up. It may even be a good way to muddy some waters. Tip them off that Jihadi John has turned double agent, that sort of thing.AnneJGP said:
Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?HYUFD said:Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html
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Evening all
An interesting week overall. I thought (though I would, wouldn't I ?) the LD Conference went pretty well. I got to hear Tim Farron's first leader's speech. Naturally it was personal and introductory and long on generalities and short on specifics - again, not surprising given we are less than five months into a sixty month electoral cycle. Now is obviously not the time for detailed policy commitments of any kind.
I liked the emphasis on housing and the achievements of the Coalition and the Party will support the REMAIN platform - will it be Cameron and Farron on one platform and Corbyn and Farage on the other (which will be interesting) - not that I think the EU "superior to the UK" as someone downthread who doesn't know any better suggested.
For all that's been said, the IPSOS-MORI numbers didn't look that bad for Labour in VI terms but the question is whether the 40% (Plus or minus) Conservative voting glacis is the very permafrost or whether it can be shifted in the years ahead.
I don't know - we are still in the post-election honeymoon/doldrums (delete as appropriate).The big opinion shifting events haven't yet happened - UKIP are as usual here, there and everywhere in the polls though IPSOS-MORI had them close to the LDs in the 8-9% range.
The refugee/migrant story has quietened in the past few days though is liable of course to flare up at any time and it remains to be seen if Russian actions in Syria will be pivotal. The recent "understanding" between Moscow and Tel Aviv seems to have given Putin the green light to intervene strongly in support of Assad though whether that will provoke an anti-Russian backlash from ISIS remains to be seen.
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Maybe, but I think the only real alternative to Hillary is Biden, with Sanders also making a strong challenge from the left. Sanders has a big lead in New Hampshire in a CNN poll todayCharles said:
As always, my focus is on identifying the best, not the best value. Politics isn't about money: it's about choosing the leadership of the Anglosphere.HYUFD said:
O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll averageCharles said:
I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.JEO said:
O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.SandyRentool said:The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.
He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot
Sanders 46%
Clinton 30%
Biden 14%
O'Malley 5%
Webb 2%
https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_demprim092415.pdf0 -
Corbyn won't back LEAVE.stodge said:Evening all
An interesting week overall. I thought (though I would, wouldn't I ?) the LD Conference went pretty well. I got to hear Tim Farron's first leader's speech. Naturally it was personal and introductory and long on generalities and short on specifics - again, not surprising given we are less than five months into a sixty month electoral cycle. Now is obviously not the time for detailed policy commitments of any kind.
I liked the emphasis on housing and the achievements of the Coalition and the Party will support the REMAIN platform - will it be Cameron and Farron on one platform and Corbyn and Farage on the other (which will be interesting) - not that I think the EU "superior to the UK" as someone downthread who doesn't know any better suggested.
For all that's been said, the IPSOS-MORI numbers didn't look that bad for Labour in VI terms but the question is whether the 40% (Plus or minus) Conservative voting glacis is the very permafrost or whether it can be shifted in the years ahead.
I don't know - we are still in the post-election honeymoon/doldrums (delete as appropriate).The big opinion shifting events haven't yet happened - UKIP are as usual here, there and everywhere in the polls though IPSOS-MORI had them close to the LDs in the 8-9% range.
The refugee/migrant story has quietened in the past few days though is liable of course to flare up at any time and it remains to be seen if Russian actions in Syria will be pivotal. The recent "understanding" between Moscow and Tel Aviv seems to have given Putin the green light to intervene strongly in support of Assad though whether that will provoke an anti-Russian backlash from ISIS remains to be seen.
As lukewarm as his support for REMAIN is.0 -
Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/6474121071814901760 -
He decides, they adviseAnneJGP said:
Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?HYUFD said:Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html0 -
The first duty of the State is the safety and security of the people of this country.surbiton said:
This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.AnneJGP said:
Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?HYUFD said:Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html
Any courtesy to Corbyn goes straight into the dustbin if he's a risk to that in any way.0 -
You can only get 1.45 on Biden or Sanders in NH - much worse than than the 3 on her getting the nomination.HYUFD said:
Maybe, but I think the only real alternative to Hillary is Biden, with Sanders also making a strong challenge from the left. Sanders has a big lead in New Hampshire in a CNN poll todayCharles said:
As always, my focus is on identifying the best, not the best value. Politics isn't about money: it's about choosing the leadership of the Anglosphere.HYUFD said:
O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll averageCharles said:
I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.JEO said:
O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.SandyRentool said:The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.
He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot
Sanders 46%
Clinton 30%
Biden 14%
O'Malley 5%
Webb 2%
https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_demprim092415.pdf
An interesting one... could Clinton come from behind?0 -
She did in NH in 2008, but this time she is polling better in Iowa than the Granite StateTheWhiteRabbit said:
You can only get 1.45 on Biden or Sanders in NH - much worse than than the 3 on her getting the nomination.HYUFD said:
Maybe, but I think the only real alternative to Hillary is Biden, with Sanders also making a strong challenge from the left. Sanders has a big lead in New Hampshire in a CNN poll todayCharles said:
As always, my focus is on identifying the best, not the best value. Politics isn't about money: it's about choosing the leadership of the Anglosphere.HYUFD said:
O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll averageCharles said:
I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.JEO said:
O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.SandyRentool said:The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.
He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot
Sanders 46%
Clinton 30%
Biden 14%
O'Malley 5%
Webb 2%
https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_demprim092415.pdf
An interesting one... could Clinton come from behind?0 -
What's most interesting about that Standard interview is how Benn is saying that Labour will opt back into what ever social chapter changes Cameron renegotiates once they get back into government.AnneJGP said:
Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?HYUFD said:Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html0 -
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37488
...Hold on a minute. Boehner resigning is great news for Trump and great news for all of us who believe in liberty and freedom.
On other matters 16280 is the key level to look out for tonight in the closing of the Dow. Closing below there opens the way to a mini panic down into the 13000's and a wonderful buying opportunity when everyone else in panicking like mad. It'll be one sling shot move to remember!0 -
O/T
***** BETTING POST *****
"Criminal proceedings have been opened against Sepp Blatter by the Swiss Attorney General on two issues: a TV rights deal that FIFA signed with Jack Warner's Caribbean Football Union and an alleged "disloyal payment" of two million Swiss francs made in 2011 to UEFA president Michel Platini."
This news seems unlikely to assist Platini's quest to become the next FIFA President, in which event Prince Ali Al-Hussein's chances of securing the top job appear to be greatly improved ..... available at odds of 3/1 from BWIN or 5/2 from those nice folk at SkyBet.
DYOR.0 -
Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.
Nice to see Biden shortening too.0 -
Interesting couple of tweets:
https://twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/647391438762848256
https://twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/6473861466710794240 -
I wouldn't take too much notice of fox. We are moving into the age where people distrust government and believe the opposite of what they say as a matter of course. Trump, Sturgeon, the Catalan independents this weekend and Corbyn all fit that template. Down with the establishment!JEO said:What's notable about the Fox News report is that Fox is now attacking Trump again.
0 -
You only have to read the contents of Nick Clegg's and Tim Farron's speeches to realise that they have absolutely no faith in the UK outside of the EU. It is shameful how they constantly talk down the achievements of the UK. They would have you believestodge said:Evening all
An interesting week overall. I thought (though I would, wouldn't I ?) the LD Conference went pretty well. I got to hear Tim Farron's first leader's speech. Naturally it was personal and introductory and long on generalities and short on specifics - again, not surprising given we are less than five months into a sixty month electoral cycle. Now is obviously not the time for detailed policy commitments of any kind.
I liked the emphasis on housing and the achievements of the Coalition and the Party will support the REMAIN platform - will it be Cameron and Farron on one platform and Corbyn and Farage on the other (which will be interesting) - not that I think the EU "superior to the UK" as someone downthread who doesn't know any better suggested.
For all that's been said, the IPSOS-MORI numbers didn't look that bad for Labour in VI terms but the question is whether the 40% (Plus or minus) Conservative voting glacis is the very permafrost or whether it can be shifted in the years ahead.
I don't know - we are still in the post-election honeymoon/doldrums (delete as appropriate).The big opinion shifting events haven't yet happened - UKIP are as usual here, there and everywhere in the polls though IPSOS-MORI had them close to the LDs in the 8-9% range.
The refugee/migrant story has quietened in the past few days though is liable of course to flare up at any time and it remains to be seen if Russian actions in Syria will be pivotal. The recent "understanding" between Moscow and Tel Aviv seems to have given Putin the green light to intervene strongly in support of Assad though whether that will provoke an anti-Russian backlash from ISIS remains to be seen.0 -
Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.
If that happy day does come, I can't help feeling it will be as much in spite of UKIP (and especially Farage) as because of it.0 -
This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so thenhunchman said:
Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.Pulpstar said:Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.
Nice to see Biden shortening too. ? 0 -
Yep that would be good. I favour large US importers doing well given the upcoming and ongoing strength of the US dollar but a passive fund at this stage in the cycle will outperform the vast majority of active managers when market breadth is typically weak in the late stages of a rally.Pulpstar said:
This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so thenhunchman said:
Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.Pulpstar said:Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.
Nice to see Biden shortening too. ?0 -
Who is the "state" ? Unelected "Intelligence" officers ? Didn't half of them work for the KGB ?watford30 said:
The first duty of the State is the safety and security of the people of this country.surbiton said:
This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.AnneJGP said:
Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?HYUFD said:Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html
Any courtesy to Corbyn goes straight into the dustbin if he's a risk to that in any way.0 -
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So, your specific recommendation being what exactly?hunchman said:
Yep that would be good. I favour large US importers doing well given the upcoming and ongoing strength of the US dollar but a passive fund at this stage in the cycle will outperform the vast majority of active managers when market breadth is typically weak in the late stages of a rally.Pulpstar said:
This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so thenhunchman said:
Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.Pulpstar said:Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.
Nice to see Biden shortening too. ?
I love the fact your crystal ball gives you certainty about the upcoming strength of the dollar too.
You've said nothing, and badly.
0 -
The Intelligence services are keeping us safe as best as they can at this time of great danger and they have prevented many attacks this year alone. We owe them respect - your views are just absurdsurbiton said:
Who is the "state" ? Unelected "Intelligence" officers ? Didn't half of them work for the KGB ?watford30 said:
The first duty of the State is the safety and security of the people of this country.surbiton said:
This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.AnneJGP said:
Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?HYUFD said:Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html
Any courtesy to Corbyn goes straight into the dustbin if he's a risk to that in any way.0 -
Just seen the news clips of Farron's speech. I don't find him appealing at all. He came across as an angry student politician.0
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There I beg to differ. It was UKIP that campaigned for Brexit when the idea seemed absurd; UKIP that brought the idea into the mainstream; UKIP that applied the pressure that led the Prime Minister to agree to a referendum.runnymede said:Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.
If that happy day does come, I can't help feeling it will be as much in spite of UKIP (and especially Farage) as because of it.
0 -
I was dollar bullish when everyone was against me.....and proved right over the past year and more much to the annoyance of the dollar haters. Just sitting in USD before this great buying opportunity in US stocks presents itself. ..but not yet. USD strength and rising US indexes will make a great combo for a UK investor. How clear do you need me to be!Omnium said:
So, your specific recommendation being what exactly?hunchman said:
Yep that would be good. I favour large US importers doing well given the upcoming and ongoing strength of the US dollar but a passive fund at this stage in the cycle will outperform the vast majority of active managers when market breadth is typically weak in the late stages of a rally.Pulpstar said:
This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so thenhunchman said:
Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.Pulpstar said:Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.
Nice to see Biden shortening too. ?
I love the fact your crystal ball gives you certainty about the upcoming strength of the dollar too.
You've said nothing, and badly.
0 -
France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html0 -
They've looked at the polling.JEO said:France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html0 -
Two years to the referendum and Europe will be vastly different with freedom of movement gone. It simply cannot survive and there are going to be a lot of discussions and States forced to compromise or the whole edifice will come crashing down. Interesting even Hollande was conciliatory with Cameron this week as they know they will have to co-operate over Syria and economic issues. Hollande said he is open to Treaty Change and that is a first. The referendum will concentrate minds and I expect other countries will also hold referendums. Change is coming in a big way that is going to rock the Brussel elite and yes that means Juncker0
-
First, Ukip is only partly a movement of anti-European Union sentiment and has primarily been about other kinds of fear and resentment. If they have had an impact, it has been on responses to the current refugee crisis. Second, Ukip could not have pushed Cameron without a massive heave from his own MPs, helped by the anti-European Union tendency of grassroots members who had a big role in their selection. Third, Brexit has never been off the agenda and has tended to have respectable people backing it at every stage of the UK's membership of the Union; in this sense, Ukip is an avatar rather than an instigator.Sean_F said:
There I beg to differ. It was UKIP that campaigned for Brexit when the idea seemed absurd; UKIP that brought the idea into the mainstream; UKIP that applied the pressure that led the Prime Minister to agree to a referendum.runnymede said:Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.
If that happy day does come, I can't help feeling it will be as much in spite of UKIP (and especially Farage) as because of it.0 -
It's like the Scotland situation. The worse the polling for Remain, the better the goodies we'll be offered.Sean_F said:
They've looked at the polling.JEO said:France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html0 -
I think we will be offered associate membership. Although I wouldn't be suprised if it is virtually the same as our current arrangement.JEO said:France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html0 -
Perhaps, just perhaps, Mr JEO, his speech was not directed towards your demographic. IIRC you are an elderly, rather reactionary Tory supporter. I woud be concerned if you were youngish and somewhat free-thinking.JEO said:Just seen the news clips of Farron's speech. I don't find him appealing at all. He came across as an angry student politician.
0 -
the post EU migrant summit speech by Tusk was almost word for word what Cameron has been saying for the past month. the media have completely missed the EU U-turn because all their reporters are still trying to get awards for posting pictures of 'desperate refugees' fleeing brutal torture from the Turkish riviera.Big_G_NorthWales said:Two years to the referendum and Europe will be vastly different with freedom of movement gone. It simply cannot survive and there are going to be a lot of discussions and States forced to compromise or the whole edifice will come crashing down. Interesting even Hollande was conciliatory with Cameron this week as they know they will have to co-operate over Syria and economic issues. Hollande said he is open to Treaty Change and that is a first. The referendum will concentrate minds and I expect other countries will also hold referendums. Change is coming in a big way that is going to rock the Brussel elite and yes that means Juncker
This was what made Farron's speech the other day so completely bonkers.0 -
I am in my late 30s and a mainstream conservative. I was more speaking about his demeanour rather than the policy arguments he was making, but thank you for your concern.PClipp said:
Perhaps, just perhaps, Mr JEO, his speech was not directed towards your demographic. IIRC you are an elderly, rather reactionary Tory supporter. I woud be concerned if you were youngish and somewhat free-thinking.JEO said:Just seen the news clips of Farron's speech. I don't find him appealing at all. He came across as an angry student politician.
0 -
Associate membership is a meaningless phrase unless it is accompanied by major change in policies.MP_SE said:
I think we will be offered associate membership. Although I wouldn't be suprised if it is virtually the same as our current arrangement.JEO said:France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html0 -
Pclipp's post got me wondering, I didn't think you were that old !JEO said:
I am in my late 30s and a mainstream conservative. I was more speaking about his demeanour rather than the policy arguments he was making, but thank you for your concern.PClipp said:
Perhaps, just perhaps, Mr JEO, his speech was not directed towards your demographic. IIRC you are an elderly, rather reactionary Tory supporter. I woud be concerned if you were youngish and somewhat free-thinking.JEO said:Just seen the news clips of Farron's speech. I don't find him appealing at all. He came across as an angry student politician.
0 -
As I have commented on here several times the media, in particular the broadcast media, have not been fair to the public who seem to have far more sense in seeing through the sentiment. Both Corbyn and Farron are a million miles from public opinion on this issuefelix said:
the post EU migrant summit speech by Tusk was almost word for word what Cameron has been saying for the past month. the media have completely missed the EU U-turn because all their reporters are still trying to get awards for posting pictures of 'desperate refugees' fleeing brutal torture from the Turkish riviera.Big_G_NorthWales said:Two years to the referendum and Europe will be vastly different with freedom of movement gone. It simply cannot survive and there are going to be a lot of discussions and States forced to compromise or the whole edifice will come crashing down. Interesting even Hollande was conciliatory with Cameron this week as they know they will have to co-operate over Syria and economic issues. Hollande said he is open to Treaty Change and that is a first. The referendum will concentrate minds and I expect other countries will also hold referendums. Change is coming in a big way that is going to rock the Brussel elite and yes that means Juncker
This was what made Farron's speech the other day so completely bonkers.0 -
Of course, UKIP on its own would be a voice in the wilderness. But, where the party has succeeded is in radicalising public opinion, and drawing the Conservative Party in its direction. The Conservatives could have responded like the Moderates in Sweden, or the CDU, treating the party to their Right as lepers, but that risked losing half their members.EPG said:
First, Ukip is only partly a movement of anti-European Union sentiment and has primarily been about other kinds of fear and resentment. If they have had an impact, it has been on responses to the current refugee crisis. Second, Ukip could not have pushed Cameron without a massive heave from his own MPs, helped by the anti-European Union tendency of grassroots members who had a big role in their selection. Third, Brexit has never been off the agenda and has tended to have respectable people backing it at every stage of the UK's membership of the Union; in this sense, Ukip is an avatar rather than an instigator.Sean_F said:
There I beg to differ. It was UKIP that campaigned for Brexit when the idea seemed absurd; UKIP that brought the idea into the mainstream; UKIP that applied the pressure that led the Prime Minister to agree to a referendum.runnymede said:Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.
If that happy day does come, I can't help feeling it will be as much in spite of UKIP (and especially Farage) as because of it.0 -
Wonder which GOP candidate will be up for a surge next ?0
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I feel you've made yourself abundantly clear. How's the paper-round doing?hunchman said:
I was dollar bullish when everyone was against me.....and proved right over the past year and more much to the annoyance of the dollar haters. Just sitting in USD before this great buying opportunity in US stocks presents itself. ..but not yet. USD strength and rising US indexes will make a great combo for a UK investor. How clear do you need me to be!Omnium said:
So, your specific recommendation being what exactly?hunchman said:
Yep that would be good. I favour large US importers doing well given the upcoming and ongoing strength of the US dollar but a passive fund at this stage in the cycle will outperform the vast majority of active managers when market breadth is typically weak in the late stages of a rally.Pulpstar said:
This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so thenhunchman said:
Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.Pulpstar said:Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.
Nice to see Biden shortening too. ?
I love the fact your crystal ball gives you certainty about the upcoming strength of the dollar too.
You've said nothing, and badly.
0
